Current State of Play in 2026 Governor Races

For a long list of entirely obvious reasons, the field of play continues to get better for Democrats as we approach the 2026 midterms.  Last month, I previewed (for a second time) my thoughts on the trajectory of this year's Senate races.  This month, as the races begin to take shape, I'm gonna look at the 36 gubernatorial races on tap later this year.

It's still a bit too early to have solid thoughts on these gubernatorial races as the majority of states have not held their primaries to determine their nominees yet and there's generally a lot of candidates running for the races worth winning, in many cases with nothing resembling a clear winner.  Furthermore, there are a lot of open seats and weak incumbents.  If Kamala Harris had won in 2024, it's a safe bet the Democrats would be poised to take a bath in some of these statehouse races.  Even with Donald Trump as the turd in the Republican Party punch bowl, there's still a degree of separation between federal and state politics.  The line is getting blurrier with politics nationalizing but voters have still shown their capacity to compartmentalize even this decade, so I suspect a few surprises and nailbiters among races that today seem poised to risen or sunk by the partisan tide.  Let's break it down.

Alabama--Long-time Republican Kay Ivey's retirement has created an open seat which will curiously lead to a rematch of the 2020 Senate race where accidental Democratic Senator Doug Jones got crushed by Republican Tommy Tuberville.  Tuberville, the dumbest Senator in America now or possibly ever, is abandoning his post after a single term to run the Yellowhammer State.  That's not likely to end well but it'll nonetheless almost certainly happen.  Jones is the biggest name Democrats could get in Alabama but even the bluest possible political environment isn't gonna make things happen for a Democrat in Alabama this year.   GOP hold.

Alaska--Two-term GOP incumbent Mike Dunleavy is calling it a career and leaving behind an open seat.  It looks as though the race is poised to come down to former Republican Senator Click Bishop and Democratic Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich.  I have no knowledge of the players or strong feel for what way the wind is blowing in Alaska.  The Begich name is royalty in The Last Frontier and literally crosses party lines, but the risk of nepotism and Begich saturation seems very real.  Plus, Alaska's economy is gonna be booming with the spike in oil prices, meaning there will be less downside for voters there to hold court with the GOP.  Barring further information coming out to confirm or deny my gut, I'll tilt this race toward Bishop.  GOP hold.

Arizona--Democrat Katie Hobbs slipped into the Arizona statehouse in 2022 against the highly controversial Kari Lake and, under normal circumstances, it would be no easy task for her to get a second term in the still-GOP tilting Grand Canyon State.  Working to her advantage, however, is the hostility toward Donald Trump among both upscale country-club Republicans and Hispanic voters that represent the weakest links of Trump's winning 2024 coalition. Also working to Hobbs' advantage is a GOP primary fight between MAGA hard-liner Andy Biggs, establishment Republican Congressman Dave Schweikert, and rich guy/perennial candidate Scott Neely.  Right now, my money is on Hobbs.  Any of her three challengers seems like the wrong candidate for the moment is his own way.  Some would fare better than others but I think they'll all lose by low-to-mid single digits.  Dem hold.

Arkansas--Republican incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders runs for a second term in a state that's become such a GOP stronghold that hardly anybody pays any attention to it anymore.  Her opponent is a random black state Senator from Pine Bluff.  It's not gonna be pretty for Natural State Dems again this year.  GOP hold.

California--There's not much I can predict yet about this free-for-all other than my confidence that a Democrat will win in November as a Republican top-two seems unlikely, that Eric Swalwell will definitively not be the next California Governor despite having the momentum a month ago before his abrupt collapse, and that whoever gets the job will be woefully insufficient to effectively take on the Golden State's overwhelming litany of self-inflicted problems.  Whether it's the bland autocrat Becerra, the nasty identitarian Porter, or the hedge-fund rich guy Steyer, California will continue to be the state that most voters and politicians alike aspire to not resemble.  Dem hold.

Colorado--There's some real tension in the Democrat-dominated Rocky Mountain State as seen by the recent censure of two-term Governor Jared Polis, who is not running for re-election.  Joining the pile-on is the current Democratic Senator who is the frontrunner to replace Polis for the open seat:  Michael Bennet.  Democratic Attorney General Phil Weiser is another strong candidate running for the position and, unless I'm missing more behind-the-scenes drama, either one should have no problem holding the statehouse against lackluster GOP competitors in a year like this.  At some point, I expect to see a hiccup in Colorado's straight line of realignment to being a solid blue state, but I don't see it happening this year.  Dem hold.

Connecticut--Third terms are often tricky for Governors but Democrat Ned Lamont is going for one anyway in the Nutmeg State.  For years, Republicans were punching well above their weight in Connecticut gubernatorial races but I'm skeptical that will happen in this environment.  Republican State Senator Ryan Fazio doesn't strike me as overly intimidating, but I haven't seen anything of him beyond his fund-raising haul.  Dem hold.

Florida--Two-term Republican Ron DeSantis is termed out this year and leaving behind an open state in Florida, a swing state at the beginning of DeSantis's term that's now bright red in a way that seems largely wave-proof.  MAGA Congressman Byron Donalds cleared the field on the Republican side and will be favored against either of the two highest-profile Democrats, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings or former Republican Congressman David Jolly who switched parties to become a Democrat after nearly a decade as a talking head on MSNBC.  The only question is whether Florida has become so red that Donalds will win by double-digits this year.  I think it's more likely than not that he does.  GOP hold.

Georgia--A week ago, I'd have predicted that two-term Republican Brian Kemp's open seat was more likely than not to flip now that he's termed out.  After all, the Democrats have been watching the PVI move more to their favor every cycle in Georgia for more than a decade now, and the tea leaves had been pointing to a lopsided enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats.  Even without a formal decision on candidates as the GOP race is heading for a runoff, I'm now more bearish on Democratic chances after this week's primary vote night in which Republicans retained a cluster of state Supreme Court seats that Democrats had a measure of confidence they'd prevail in.  It was a good reminder that Democrats still need a perfect storm to prevail statewide in Georgia and I'm not sure if the scenario unfolding qualifies as that perfect storm.  Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones seems like the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and, as bland as he might be, he'll probably have a lot to work with running against the Democratic nominee, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.  It's very much a winnable race for the Democrats given the environment and how quickly Georgia is changing but right now I'm not convinced Bottoms isn't the underdog.  GOP hold.

Hawaii--There was some chatter of voter discontent two years ago about the way the Maui fires were handled that made me wonder if first-term Democratic Governor Josh Green might be vulnerable.  Going into this year, there's almost no indication that that's the case with only token GOP opposition surfacing.  There are plenty of red states where elected officials have little likelihood of being held accountable by voters because of the (R) next to their name.  Hawaii seems to be one of the few places blue enough to be unreachable for Republicans among blue states.  Dem hold.

Idaho--Republican Brad Little is running for a third state in the Gem State and is almost certain to get it.  I recall Little having a bit of a dogfight for the nomination in 2022 but that doesn't seem to be the case this year.  He has only token opposition from a Democratic attorney.  No exactly headline news that Idaho is poised to stay red.  GOP hold.

Illinois--The Land of Lincoln is one state where the primary was held and the gubernatorial race is settled.  Two-term Democratic incumbent J.B. Pritzker is running for a third term and there's limited likelihood that he'll be denied.  Republican challenger Darren Bailey, the 2022 GOP nominee, is going for a rematch.  Even in a perfect storm, Bailey would struggle to beat Pritzker, but with the partisan tide being what it is, I'm very confident it won't happen this year.  With that said, Illinois has at this point realigned so starkly as "Chicago vs. downstate" that I could see Bailey holding Pritzker to high single digits. Dem hold.

Iowa--For the last few months, the buzz has been that the anti-Trump tide has become so high in the Hawkeye State that Democratic Auditor Rob Sand is a frontrunner to replace outgoing Republican Governor Kim Reynolds.  I've operated partially on that assumption but I've been burned by too-friendly poll results for Democrats in Iowa too many times in the past to be particularly confident.  Someone in the crowded Republican field needs to get more than 35% in next month's primary to avoid selection at a party convention.  Campaign activity points to Congressman Randy Feenstra being the prohibitive favorite, but it feels like he's a bit arrogant and complacent against scrappy young right-wing challenger Zach Lahn who is all over the airwaves and likely finding some support with the red meat Republican appeals.  If I was Sand, I think I'd fear Lahn more than Feenstra in the general, but to be sure, Feenstra will be no pushover with as red as Iowa has gotten in the Trump era.  Still, polling and my gut have had me leaning toward Sand in this race and until I see a reason not to, I'm sticking with that.  Dem gain (+1 Dems).

Kansas--It's interesting that one of the nation's most ancestrally Republican states has had a Democratic Governor for 16 of the last 24 years, including retiring two-term incumbent Laura Kelly.  Still, even with 2026 shaping up to be a strong Democratic year, very few people are of the mind that the Democrats are gonna hold the seat.  State Senator Ethan Corson seems like a major long shot for hanging on against heavy GOP hitters like former Governor Jeff Colyer and state Senate President Ty Masterson.  Until I see any reason to doubt this conventional wisdom, I'll go along with it.  GOP gain (+0 Dems).

Maine--With two-term Democratic incumbent Janet Mills signing out for a disastrous Senate bid, everybody and their brother is trying to replace her.  The Democratic lineup, with names like Troy Jackson, Hannah Pingree, and Shenna Bellows, looks more intimidating than the Republican lineup of Jonathan Bush, Bobby Charles, and Garrett Mason, and that would be true even if 2026 wasn't shaping up to be a strong Democratic year.  This one is far from a sure thing at this early stage but I'd  much rather be running with a (D) than an (R) next to my name this year, especially in New England.  Dem hold.

Maryland--One of the easiest calls to make among this year's slate of gubernatorial races is that Democratic incumbent Wes Moore will get a second term in the deeply blue Old Line State.  It looks like his token opponent in 2026 will be Dan Cox, his same token opponent in 2022.  Dem hold.

Massachusetts--Only slightly less assured of a second term than Wes Moore is Maura Healey in the Bay State.  Neither of her Republican challengers looks very intimidating this year and it strikes me that the Republican brand is probably not gonna sell well in Massachusetts this year.  Dem hold.

Michigan--The Wolverine State looked like the most vulnerable statehouse hold for the Democrats this year a week ago with former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an independent and poaching considerable support from likely Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, that Benson could not afford to lose in increasingly purple Michigan.  Late last week though, Duggan finally responded to pleas from his party and ended his bid, shaking up the race and significantly increasing Democrats' odds of a third consecutive gubernatorial term with Gretchen Whitmer bowing out after two terms.  At least for now, Benson has to be seen as a slight favorite, especially with two Republicans bloodying themselves up for their pending primary.  Congressman John James seemed like a promising rising star several years ago when he outperformed expectations in two consecutive Senate runs.  Now he just seems like a perennial candidate with a lackluster track record who will have long odds overcoming the national tide against his party.  I suspect he'll beat top challenger Perry Johnson in the primary but if he doesn't, I'm even more confident of a Benson victory in November.  Dem hold.

Minnesota--Gopher State Democrats were sliding toward a disastrous midterm cycle, hoisted by their own petard over lackluster oversight of state coffers leading to potentially billions of dollars worth of theft by fraudsters.  To be sure, that issue will remain a black eye for Minnesota Democrats and threatens to weaken their performance in what's otherwise poised to be a big year for their party.  But two things improved Democrats' fortunes in Minnesota so far in 2026.  First, an autocratic President seeking revenge against the state foisted a masked paramilitary force into the streets that emptied their clips on protestors in cold blood and with impunity.  Coupled with the targeted executive branch disinvestments causing unnecessary financial pain to Minnesota and Trump swamped the potential for Republicans to take advantage of the environment.  Second, beleaguered two-term incumbent Tim Walz (wisely!) chose against running for a third term and is poised to be replaced on the ballot by popular Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar.  Klobuchar is really emerging as the savior here for Democrats and seems poised to take advantage of the significant political capital she's built in Minnesota, particularly against an unimpressive slate of Republican challengers that don't seem well-positioned to seize the moment.  I'm still betting this is a high-single-digit race, compared to the 15+ point blowouts seen in Klobuchar's previous Senate wins, but I'd be surprised if it was any closer than that.  Dem hold.

Nebraska--We know there won't be a Walz winning elected office for the Democrats in Minnesota in 2026 but there's a small possibility there will be one in Nebraska.  To be sure, it's not much more likely that Democrat Lynne Walz, a distant relative of Tim Walz, will be winning in the Cornhusker State this year than her cousin winning in the Gopher State.  In bright red Nebraska, expect GOP incumbent Jim Pillen to win a second term by double digits.  GOP hold.

Nevada--For three consecutive cycles, the Silver State has been trending toward the GOP.  With no Senate race this year, 2026 will be the perfect test to see if they'll return to early-2010s form or continue to see their PVI shift rightward.  Republican Joe Lombardo narrowly unseated an unpopular Democratic incumbent in 2022.  Had Harris won in 2024, it's a pretty good bet Lombardo would be cruising toward a second term.  But since Trump won and has governed like a madman just as anybody paying attention was able to predict, Lombardo is perceived as vulnerable with Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford poised to be his likely challenger.  Even when Nevada was trending Democrat a generation ago, Republicans like John Ensign and Brian Sandoval were able to resist wave cycles and find a way to win.  My suspicion is that Lombardo does as well.  I'm not overflowing with confidence about that prediction but I suspect the demographic shift that led to Nevada's softening for Democrats in the Trump era remains in play with plenty of working-class whites fully realigned.  We'll see how far Hispanics do or do not revert to form this year, but I don't envision whatever is left of the Reid Machine to be sufficiently motivated to install Aaron Ford without any Senate race in play.  GOP hold.

New Hampshire--Every two years, my instinct is to predict the Granite State is repelled enough by the GOP's MAGA pivot that their PVI will accelerate its leftward march.  And yet, it keeps not happening.  Particularly at the state level, Republicans have been crushing it in New Hampshire.  While I would hate to be running as a Republican in the northeast this year generally, I don't see a scenario where it trickles downballot to the state level strongly enough to put freshman GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte at much risk.  I don't know much about Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington, but nothing about her biography leads me to believe Ayotte has anything to fear from her.  GOP hold.

New Mexico--Two-term Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited out, leaving an open seat in an already blue state where demographics suggest a tough year ahead for Republicans.  Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland seems to be the frontrunner on the Democratic side and a trio of Republicans is competing for their party's nomination.  I'm not very familiar with this race but will defer to the conventional wisdom of Democratic advantage, although I know there was a universal child care plan enacted in the Land of Enchantment and the likelihood of swelling expenses related to that is something that's been on my radar as a potential Democratic vulnerability.  We'll see, but the safe money early on is with the Dems.  Dem hold.

New York--It would have been hard to imagine four years ago that weakened accidental Governor Kathy Hochul would see her political standing greatly improve after her soft five-point winning margin and standing poised to cruise to reelection in 2026.  Even last year, I figured friction with newly elected Gotham mayor Zohran Mamdani would further weaken Hochul.  I also figured that upstate New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik would emerge as a strong challenger capable of taking advantage of Hochul's weaknesses.  None of that has happened.  Hochul and Mamdani have not clashed yet in the way that seemed inevitable and sabotage by Trump triggered Stefanik to drop out of the gubernatorial race entirely.  The GOP is now reduced to expecting a miracle from Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.  Obviously, a 2024 Harris win would probably have led to a far different reality facing the two parties this midterm, but right now it seems likely that New York returns at least partially to form this year, with opposition to Trump poised to be the driving force that Hochul needs for another full term.  I expect her to get it by at least 15 points.  Dem hold.

Ohio--With two-term Republican Mike DeWine bowing out, the Republican-trending Buckeye State has an open seat.  And on the GOP side, the field was cleared for the odious MAGA ally Vivek Ramaswamy, a deeply flawed candidate who at any other time would have been DOA in a center-right state like Ohio.  If former Congressman Tim Ryan had decided to run on the Democratic side, I think he'd have had a chance, but for some reason Ryan opted out.  Democrats are left with a third-rate former public health director named Amy Acton as their nominee.  I don't know a lot about Acton but with a challenger as viscerally unlikeable as Ramaswamy, her chance is not zero.  Still, even with the mass exodus away from Trump in polling, I suspect the demographic most likely to stand by him is working-class whites.  The very group that stubbornly clung to Democrats in the Obama era are basically the last MAGA warriors on the field heading into 2026, and unfortunately for Democrats, they are more prominent in Ohio than just about anywhere else in the country.  Acton's best chance is outperforming a turnout collapse among the Republican base unimpressed with Ramaswamy, but that seems like a lot to hope for with Trump guaranteed to rally his soldiers.  I think Ramaswamy is more likely to win than not.  GOP hold.

Oklahoma--Another open seat in an even more Republican state.  We've been baited for the last two cycles into the premise that Democrats were poised to be competitive in Sooner State gubernatorial races, but on both occasions, Republican Kevin Stitt managed to win by double digits.  I don't know what the polls will show heading into this Oklahoma gubernatorial election, but I feel comfortable in predicting that GOP Attorney General Gentner Drummond will prevail over Democratic challenger Cyndi Munson by double digits again this year.  GOP hold.

Oregon--Just as I'm always skeptical about possibilities of Democratic gubernatorial wins in Oklahoma, I'm also skeptical of reports of Republican wins in Oregon.  First-term incumbent Tina Kotek is the latest head of state in the Beaver State who hasn't really connected with voters outside the Democratic base, but I still think she's the frontrunner for a second term this fall.  Her Republican challenger Christine Drazan put up a decent fight in 2022 but had the advantage of a third-party candidate poaching disproportionately Democratic votes as well as a better electoral climate for the GOP.  Drazan seems less likely to have either advantage heading into the 2026 rematch.  I'd be very surprised if Kotek didn't win more decisively this year than four years ago.  Dem hold

Pennsylvania--I'm also struck by how much better Democratic politicians who directly govern the Keystone State seem to do compared to national standardbearers, particularly those who have the audacity to run against Donald Trump.  This list includes names ranging from Ed Rendell to Tom Wolf to, until recently, Bob Casey, and now it includes first-term Governor Josh Shapiro.  Shapiro had a huge win in 2022 and has retained high approval ratings throughout his term.  He seems like a cinch for re-election against token GOP opposition this year.  I'd be surprised if he didn't win by double-digits again this year.  Dem hold

Rhode Island--Poor Dan McKee.  I know there's some controversy with a bridge that's largely credited for tanking his approval ratings, but it's not entirely clear to me why he has the lowest approval rating of any Governor in the country.  I'm also not sure why he's running for another term because he seems like a long shot to get it, particularly with a well-funded primary challenge from fellow Democrat Helena Foulkes.  On the GOP side, the distant cousin of former Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo is running as a Republican and could possibly get some traction with that last name if he's somehow able to run against McKee.  I don't see this being a year when Ocean State voters will be overly inclined to reward somebody from the party of Donald Trump though.  Dem hold

South Carolina--Retiring two-term Republican Henry McMaster has some pretty big names running for his old job, particularly on the GOP side.  Congresspersons Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman seem likely to be the frontrunners but Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette probably shouldn't be underestimated either.  Pretty safe bet that the statehouse stays in Republican hands in this increasingly conservative Deep South state, particularly with a token Democratic challenger named Jermaine Jackson that I doubt anybody will mistake for a member of the Jackson Five.  GOP hold

South Dakota--Just like in the Palmetto State, the only contest for the Mount Rushmore State is likely to emerge in the Republican primary.  Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden got his job when Kristi Noem was appointed to the Cabinet but doesn't go into the race with the kind of advantage an incumbent typically has.  He's facing primary competition from long-time Congressman Dusty Johnson as well as Speaker of the House Toby Doeden and representative Jon Hansen.    One of them will have the distinction of crushing perennial Democratic challenger Daniel Ahlers in November.  GOP hold.

Tennessee--Two-term Republican incumbent Bill Lee is bowing out and leaving behind an open seat.  In most states, an open seat gives Democrats a chance for victory in a cycle poised to be as lopsided as this one, but that seems incredibly unlikely in the Volunteer State which has become one of the nation's most inelastic Republican states in the last decade.  Senator Marsha Blackburn is running and is the heavy favorite for the GOP nomination.  Blackburn has underperformed at various points in the past but there's virtually no scenario where she gets felled by her token Democratic opposition.  GOP hold.

Texas--It wouldn't be an election year if irrationally exuberant Democrats weren't telling us this could be the year where they start putting wins on the board in the Lone Star State.  The drumbeat is loudest for the Texas Senate race but some wild-eyed optimists think that Governor-for-life and scumbag-to-his-core Greg Abbott might be vulnerable this year.  If Abbott gets taken out by Democratic legislator Gina Hinojosa, then there was a Democratic wave large enough nationally to leave us with 54 Democratic Senators and 280 Democratic House members.  Won't happen.  GOP hold.

Vermont--It seems that five-term Republican Governor Phil Scott gets more popular each term he runs for in the most Democratic state in the country.  Not so long ago, he had a basically ceremonial position in a state whose legislature was so Democrat that Scott basically functioned as a figurehead, but after big Republican gains in the state legislature in 2024, Scott goes into 2026 with a somewhat larger footprint.  Was 2024 a tea leaf for a Vermont state government trending center-right the same way neighboring New Hampshire keeps doing or will opposition to Trump register more this year than recent cycles?  There's virtually no chance Scott will be denied another term no matter how intense Trump hatred is, but I will be curious to see how big of an anchor Trump might be for Scott in terms of margin.  GOP hold.

Wisconsin--After two narrow wins in 2018 and 2022, Democratic Governor Tony Evers is retiring, leaving behind an open seat that Democrats seem favored to hold on paper.  I'm not exactly blown away by the political acumen of any of them though, be it Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, or Madison Assemblywoman Francesca Hong, who just called for abolishing the police like it's 2020 all over again.....because that talking point has aged so well in the six years since its inception.  The winner is poised to take on Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.  I don't know much about Rodriguez but what I do know about the other two make me think they'd struggle to win a statewide race even in a bullish Democratic year.  I'll lean toward the national trend and predict the Democrats eke out another narrow win here but watch this space as I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with the candidates they're running.  Dem hold.

Wyoming--The nation's most Republican state will elect another Republican Governor even with two-term Republican incumbent Mark Gordon retiring.  Education Superintendent Megan Degenfelder appears to be the frontrunner.  GOP hold

Kind of crazy that even in what's assumed to be a really good environment for Democrats this fall, a lot of things will have to go right for them to merely break even in gubernatorial wins.  The party is heavily exposed in statehouses across the country and hold a number of states that, on paper, they shouldn't.  The only states one could say they have a reasonable chance of going on offense are Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio.  At least at this point, none of the statehouses held by Republican seem like viable options for flipping.  Meanwhile, Democrats are playing defense in a lot of purple and red states, including Arizona, Kansas, Maine,  Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.  Technically, Pennsylvania fits this category as well but Shapiro seems solid enough for re-election in that race that I'm not putting it in the same category as the others.  And while Oregon isn't a purple state, Tina Kotek has to be considered at least nominally vulnerable at this stage of the race.

I don't think I'm being irrationally bearish in predicting no net gains for Democrats in gubernatorial races.  The potential exists for the playing field to expand to places like Alaska, Florida, Texas, or New Hampshire, but it could also realistically expand the other direction to Rhode Island, Colorado, or Connecticut.  To be continued obviously as I'll reassess in the fall, but Democrats come into this cycle already punching above their weight, and the risk is that overperformance this cycle really sets them up for a hard fall in the election that will really count, and that's the 2030 midterms.