Trump Gets His Trophy From The City Of Lakes

For nearly a year now, the sociopaths of the Trump administration have been doing everything imaginable to incite an escalation of the ruinous culture war.  The backlash from their critics has been largely, and inconveniently, peaceful for most of the last 12 months as liberals have more or less recognized they have no cards to play and have held their fire.  Unsatisfied with the number of gazelles roaming the savannah, the apex predators of the administration just kept laying out more tempting bait so that the lionesses among them can have their chance to bloody their feral fangs upon a fresh kill.

It was inevitable that they would eventually induce enough fury that they'd be get their green light to "own a lib" by way of emptying their clip upon them, and it should come as no surprise to anybody that this inevitable outcome played out in the form of a blood-soaked snowbank in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Am I exaggerating?  In normal times, it would be fair game to say so.  Renee Good was quite stupidly obstructing federal law enforcement from carrying out their work, and when you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.   But these aren't normal times or anything close to them.  The only reason ICE had a serious presence in Minneapolis in the first place was for Trump to settle a score against Minnesota's Governor over an unrelated political rivalry.  Their electoral prospects sagging amidst growing disapproval, the administration was counting on a localized backlash where they could simultaneously flex the might of the federal government upon a protestor and reset the culture war on terms they believe are favorable to them.

The clearest visual cue of the administration's giddiness about this outcome was Kristi Noem emerging almost instantly after the shooting in a press conference decked out in a 10-gallon cowboy hat.  Kristi Noem enjoyed gunning down her dog so much that she wrote about the incident glowingly in an autobiography two years ago.  And now, Kristi Noem enjoyed gunning down Renee Good so much that she cosplayed Wyatt Earp meets Annie Oakley, signaling that she was untouchable and signaling that she fully intends to kill again....and will continue to enjoy it when she does.

And then we get J.D. Vance absolving the ICE agent shooter of his sins in real time with maximal condescension and horrifyingly prescient proclamations of the agent having "absolute immunity" for all past, present, and future lawbreaking he might indulge behind the cover of his badge.  This is enough to mollify the half of the country that he cares about, aware that there won't be a nanosecond of critical thinking about the binary choice he's presented us by those who reflexively side with the conquistadors.  To this half of the country, there's no reason at all to be concerned about the formation of a Praetorian Guard allowed to shoot first and ask questions later without any fear of reprisal, confident that it's always gonna be "those people" on the other side of their gun barrels.

The worst-case scenario for the national recriminations here?  I keep refreshing my computer wondering if I'll see a headline of a protest in Minneapolis that triggers a Trump-approved mass annihilation that exceeds the body count that the Islamic Republic has piled up among Iranian protestors this very day.  I'd bet my paycheck that Trump is in the White House today vocally expressing his jealousy of Khamenei for being able to kill hundreds of protestors that Trump has not YET had the opportunity to.  I really hope that the Minneapolis protestors pull back before they give Trump and Noem the excuse they're looking for to "own" a whole bunch more libs than just Renee Good.

The best-case scenario for the national recriminations here?  The still-ugly alternative of voters doubling down on siding with the fascists on the binary choice they're been given on liberty versus security.  The public is expressing exhaustion with Trump's excesses on a wide range of issues, but Trump and his people are savvy enough to realize that they'll be positioned to pounce on the reaction of the left who can be counted upon to overplay their hand as they always do. Expect the left to once again reframe their anger and grief as cluelessly as they did over George Floyd.  Yesterday's calls for defunding the police and institutionalizing collective guilt in the form of expansion-pack DEI will likely be reinvented with a renewed call for ending immigration enforcement.

Needless to say, this is not only a fight that the Trump administration wants, it's a fight they're actively fomenting, baiting the left into taking the stupidest possible positions as they did in 2019 and 2020.  And it will probably work.  The majority of voters value personal security and hate cultural change.  While most outside the MAGA hivemind might be uncomfortable with much of what they see from the Trump administration, they're ultimately gonna side with law enforcement and border enforcement over those who think we should have less of both.  And since most people are comfortable that it won't ever be one of their own loved ones whose blood is spilled all over the snowbank at the hands of a law enforcement officer who is bequeathed "absolute immunity", they're comfortable looking the other way and trade their liberty for security.

Here's your latest reminder that I predicted only 14 months ago that the future was autocracy.   The forever autocracy is upon us, and only in its infancy.  The path back to whatever America was 14 months ago couldn't possibly be more elusive.

Ranking The Eight Midterm Elections of My Lifetime

A large percentage of American voters can only be bothered to pay attention to Presidential elections.  They have little patience for or interest in midterm cycles where Governors, Senators, and legislatures are decided.  Believe it or not, I used to be one of them, but in my defense, that only lasted into my mid-teens.  My engagement in midterm cycles was modest at best as a boy.  That's probably true of most children, but given my reflexive fascination with partisan elections as far back as I can remember, it's a bit surprising that I hardly remember anything about the 1986 midterms and my engagement in the 1990 midterms wasn't high enough to justify inclusion on this list.  The surprise election of Senator Paul Wellstone on November 6, 1990, was a big of catalyst as anything in propelling me into downballot election fascination, but it was more the planting of a seed than instantaneous jubilation at the result.

Even four years later, I was caught napping by the consequential midterm cycle that for all intents and purposes ushered in the combative culture of contemporary politics.  I would never again ignore or downplay midterm election cycles and, in many ways, have grown to like them as much as Presidential election cycles.  Let's take a look back at the eight midterm cycles that got me there.  

#8.  1994

Before the Internet era had begun, I lacked the information to measure the country's political temperature the way that I can now.  I was a junior in high school in the fall of 1994 and had other things going on in my life than a midterm election cycle, but I was picking up on murmurs that a Republican wave was building.  Some evening news broadcasts teased momentum for the GOP, fronted by Newt Gingrich, in backlash to single-party Democratic control and particularly to President Clinton's failed health care reform plan and passage of the controversial North American Free Trade Agreement.  The week before the election, some talking head broke down a poll in which voters indicated their party preferences on a wide range of policies, and Republicans had the edge on issue after issue.

Things didn't look good, but I was still in denial.  When friends and classmates asked me if I thought Republicans would win control of Congress on November 8, 1994, I expressed with confidence that the Senate might fall but I couldn't imagine the GOP would be able to win enough seats to dislodge the Democrats' seemingly impenetrable hold on the House.

Clearly, I was insufficiently plugged in to the pending geographic realignment that had been simmering for quite some time.  Millions of conservative Americans in conservative jurisdictions had been casting ballots for Democrats out of muscle memory for a generation but the party was no longer their natural home.  What's astonishing looking back is that this realignment still managed to play out in phases, and even in 1994, plenty of Democratic Congressman held on in places that became Republican strongholds in the 30 years to come.  In other words, 1994 could have been much, much worse for Democrats.

I was nonetheless awakened about the tectonic impact of midterm cycles and had a tough night watching so much territory turn red, including Minnesota.  Democratic figures as iconic as Ann Richards, Mario Cuomo, and Speaker of the House Tom Foley were getting felled in front of my eyes and it felt like I was getting hit by a freight train.  It certainly gave me a good lesson about what painful election nights from hell feel like, and also set the stage for the brand of vicious, brinksmanship politics that kept escalating to its natural conclusion:  a sociopath and street fighter as President who is as adept in bringing out the worst in people as any other figure in geopolitical history. 

#7.  2002

The high of the exciting 2000 Presidential election loomed large as the next midterm cycle approached, but the marquee race of the 2002 midterm was poised to be the Minnesota Senate race.  The death of Paul Wellstone was like a pin to my balloon, taking all of the fun out of the final weeks of the campaign.  And that was before the electoral drubbing that followed....

In retrospect, it was pretty remarkable how elastic the electorate still was in 2002, despite the cycle's reputation for being realigning.  Far as I can tell, that realignment was limited to Georgia.  Beyond that, most Blue Dog Democrats held on to their Congressional seats, and in some cases even picked seats up such as Lincoln Davis in Middle Tennessee.  Democrats were winning open gubernatorial races in Tennessee, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming, while Republicans were finding ways to win gubernatorial races in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Hawaii.  And the South Dakota Senate race was one of the all-time greatest cliffhangers I ever experienced.  In that sense, 2002 was kind of an interesting cycle, but the cycle still stuck in my craw for two primary reasons.

First, the Democrats lost control of the U.S. Senate, yielding full control of the federal government to the architects of the Iraq war.  Second, one of the reasons Democrats lost the Senate was the state of Minnesota, where Paul Wellstone enthusiasts got one final kick in the teeth surrendering his Senate seat to Norm Coleman.  This cycle was the peak of the GOP's suburban surge in the Gopher State, where it appeared as though Minnesota might be poised to realign as a red state.  The degree to which this was backlash to the overreach of Paul Wellstone's memorial service is debatable, and I just might do a deep dive into that in a coming entry on this site, but whatever the case, Minnesota's outsized role in the country's shift still further to the right made November 5, 2002, a particularly dark night at my residence.

#6.  2010

There were a few distinct differences between the Democratic wipeout of 1994 and its follow-up 16 years later.  By 2010, I was old enough and plugged in enough to see the Republican tsunami coming months ahead of schedule.  I sounded the alarm on Democratic websites when most people were still whistling past graveyards and predicted a much larger disaster than actually materialized.  By the time November 2, 2010, came around, I was actually kind of relieved that things didn't end up worse.

There was a lot of Democratic driftwood from 2008 like Frank Kratovil, Bobby Bright, and Walt Minnick who I always knew wouldn't be long for this world.  It hurt more to see a lot of the class of 2006 wiped out, or humiliated with disastrous runs for the Senate like Brad Ellsworth and Paul Hodes, but much of the class of 2006 still managed to hang on, including high-profile names like Tim Walz, Bruce Braley, and Gabby Giffords (we won't talk about what happened next with Giffords).  But the biggest sigh of relief in 2010 was how well the Democrats held up in the Senate, keeping West Virginia while re-electing Harry Reid and Michael Bennet when both were underdogs to survive.  I went into the night expecting Republicans would have between 49 and 51 Senate seats, so holding them to 47 wasn't a bad outcome at all.

It was a split decision in my home state and adopted home state.  Democrats won an open-seat Governor's race and held all statewide offices while somehow managing to lose legislative supermajorities in Minnesota.  They also turned out long-time Democratic Congressman Jim Oberstar and replaced him with a grifter, which I credit myself as being the first to see coming.  It was also a less than comprehensive Republican wave in Iowa, with Democrats hanging onto the state Senate and all three Democratic House members narrowly winning reelection.

A rough night to be sure, but one that was entirely foreseeable to anybody who understands the laws of political gravity.  And again, a night that could have been and by all historical metrics should have been worse.  It had the additional benefit of setting up a foil for Obama and improving his chances for re-election. 

#5.  2014

I was wavering back and forth on whether to rate 2010 or 2014 as the worse midterm election.  Both were sub-optimal for Democrats, and in many ways 2014 was worse.  Absolutely abysmal turnout nationally led to some shock defeats and a number of near-defeats by heavy hitters like Mark Warner and Louise Slaughter.  Democrats lost nine Senate seats, an outcome worse than even the most pessimistic prognosticators predicted and boxing them out of any hopes of controlling the upper body for the foreseeable future.  And, of course, it was a preview of regional realignment heading into the Trump era, with states like Iowa, Ohio, and Maine coming in a darker shade of red than anticipated.

I almost talked myself out of placing 2014 ahead of 2010 as I wrote that, and I'll explain the thin reed for which I didn't after a bit more reflection.  I recall the odd lack of media engagement in the weeks leading up to the 2014 midterms.  In late September and early October, the usually elections-heavy Sunday morning shows like "Meet the Press" and "Face the Nation" weren't discussing the elections as the front-and-center topic.  That should have been a red flag, particularly since they were instead talking about the surge of illegal border crossings and doom-trolling about "Ebola".  The mirage of a steady environment where the Democrats might incur only modest losses held until the last couple of weeks when the polls turned against them.

And the mirage of even manageable losses in that year's challenging battleground was quickly felled on November 4, 2014, as the results came in with flashing red trouble signs in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina.  The Obama coalition had sat on its hands while angry, old white guys came out in droves to ensure Obama would spend his last two years in office as a lame duck.  Nonetheless, the 2014 Republican wave bypassed plenty of places, and that's why my memories aren't entirely bleak about the cycle.

I could hardly have asked for a better year for Democrats in Minnesota.  Mark Dayton and Al Franken were comfortably re-elected.  Three additional statewide offices remained in Democratic hands even if Steve Simon got a close shave in his first run for Secretary of State.  And Collin Peterson decisively held off his first top-tier GOP challenger while Rick Nolan somewhat unexpectedly prevailed next door.  Even in Minnesota, there were a couple of warning signs though as Tim Walz was held to single-digits by a third-rate challenger and the state House flipped to the GOP with some geographic canaries in the coal mine among the lost seats.  Still, this was the last time my beloved DFL coalition of yore held in Minnesota before the 2016 realignment, and I will always cherish that I got one last hurrah.  That alone keeps 2014 from rating beneath 2010.

#4.  2018

I've never understood why so many Democrats look back upon 2018 as such a spectacular cycle.  If you're judging 2018 entirely by how many House seats Democrats were able to pick up, then the cycle does seem pretty good.  But even accounting for the impressive 41 Democratic House pickups, the most promising newcomers like Kendra Horn, Abbey Finkenauer, Joe Cunningham, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell were wiped out the very next time voters stood in judgment of them. Our 2018 legacy is mostly grifters and troublemakers like Jeff Van Drew, Katie Porter, and AOC, who hurt the party's reputation and narrowed its coalition.

The news was mixed at best elsewhere on the ballot.  The Democrats picked up some needed statehouses such as Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico and (narrowly) Wisconsin, but failed to pick them up in key states like Ohio, Georgia, and Florida where they could have averted redistricting disasters. 

The state of play was much worse in the Senate, where Democrats were defending a tough map and held on to some key states but still saw four incumbents get felled, including two of my favorites, Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp. None of these four were perceived to be particularly endangered at the beginning of the 2018 cycle when it was expected that there would be a more uniform backlash to Trump. You don't get to call it a "wave election" when you lose four incumbent Senators, particularly when it ultimately costs you control of the Supreme Court for a generation.  The Democrats' perception of redemption quickly pivoted to eternal damnation.  Most weren't able to hear the siren call at the time and still don't seem to identify 2018 as their requiem seven years later.

In other words, 2018 doesn't hold up well at all, but compared to the other midterms cited thus far on this list, it at least felt kinda-sorta good that night to be piling on some wins.  Still, a darkness loomed under the surface.  While Democratic inroads in upscale suburbia played out as expected, I was more interested to see if their losses in rural areas and small industrial cities would continue.  For the most part, they did, foreshadowing a more durable realignment of downscale voters into the GOP column that would ultimately prove to be a much bigger and more impactful story than the suburban shift as we progressed into the 2020s.

#3.   2022

It's really rare to go into an election cycle expecting an ugly wipeout but ending the night with an outcome closely resembling neutrality.  The last thing I expected going into November 8, 2022, was to walk away thinking that it didn't go badly at all, and that's what made it the most satisfying election night since 2012.

The Republicans did a pretty masterful job of pregame spin this cycle, leaking chatter about internal polls showing alleged battleground races as Republican blowouts and alleged safe Democratic races being the real battlegrounds.  My anticipation was that the first couple hours of the night would be headlined by Herschel Walker getting the 50% needed to avoid a runoff in Georgia, Don Bolduc unseating Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, and double-digit wins for Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio in Florida.  Only one of these things happened, but even as a number of things started to go the Democrats' way as the night progressed, I still wouldn't have imagined Democrats would net a Senate seat, hold the new Republican House majority to a handful of seats, win governing trifectas in Minnesota and Michigan, and keep just about every nutjob election denier away from the reins of power in swing states.

As I find is often the case, my original instinct was right all along...that Democrats were positioned for a wipeout but were saved by juiced turnout from young women incensed about the repeal of Roe vs. Wade.  The fact that low-propensity MAGA voters stayed home in droves created a perfect storm limiting Democratic losses, but it also taught Democrats the wrong lessons and gave them undue confidence heading into the Presidential cycle.

Democrats wrote Trump's obituary on November 8, 2022, and decreed Ron DeSantis the new leader of the Republican Party, completely misjudging the sleeping lion that was MAGA still poised to return to the prowl.  They continued to self-immolate on the border, assuming voters didn't care and dragged their feet on fixing their bottomless asylum policy.  And most damagingly, they decided that abortion rights needed to be the centerpiece of their 2024 campaign after having success litigating the issue in 2022.  So while November 8, 2022, turned out to be a pretty good night for Democrats, it set them up to go into 2024 clueless and tone-deaf, underestimating their opponent and having no idea what was making the American voter tick.

Still, it had been a decade since I went through an election night that didn't hurt, so I enjoyed it while it lasted.

#2.  1998

The midterm cycle where I was most pleasantly surprised by the result was 2022, but a close second was Bill Clinton's second midterm in 1998.  And ultimately, November 3, 1998, was more satisfying because it felt like a rejection of the Gingrich Congress and the dark shadow of Donald Trump was nowhere in sight compared to 2022 where it still unmistakably lingered.  Plus, I was still in college, so the cyclical nature of elections had not yet hardened me.  It genuinely felt like the country was embracing my political ideology and that brighter days were ahead, quite possibly in a straight line.

In the weeks leading up to the 1998 midterms, I watched CNN's afternoon politics show almost daily and was far more engaged about the electoral landscape than I had been in any previous midterm.  There was a fair amount of ambiguity but the general consensus was that Democrats were facing headwinds and in a perfect storm Republicans could gain two dozen House seats and get a veto-proof majority in the Senate.  But as election day approached, it seemed as though things were starting to break the Democrats way more places than not and my Republican-leaning college roommate predicted the Dems were gonna do okay.

He was right.  And it didn't take long into the evening to appreciate that Democrats were outperforming expectations and vastly outperforming the fundamentals of the incumbent party in the second midterm cycle.  By 7 p.m. central, the Kentucky Senate race was neck and neck while Democrats were scoring several wins in Deep South battlegrounds, be it gubernatorial races in South Carolina and Alabama or the Senate races in North Carolina and South Carolina.  The Senate race I was most invested in was Wisconsin, but if John Edwards and Fritz Hollings were pulling out wins in their states, I was much more confident that Russ Feingold would hold on for a second term, which he did.  It hadn't even occurred to me that Democrats wouldn't lose a single seat and would actually gain a handful of House seats in Clinton's second midterm, but that's exactly what happened.

But the two races that rocked my world the most in 1998, in different directions, were the gubernatorial races in my home state of Minnesota and my adopted home state of Iowa.  It was genuinely surprising that Democrat Tom Vilsack came from behind to win in Iowa, even though his momentum in the final week was undeniable.  But the most surreal result was in Minnesota, where late momentum for Jesse Ventura was also undeniable, but it was still hard to fully process that the Gopher State elected a mercurial former pro wrestler as Governor.  It was a better outcome than a Governor Norm Coleman, but it was nonetheless the only complication to an otherwise unconditional positive night, one where my shouts of delight at every called race echoed down the hallway of my college dorm building.

Unfortunately, it didn't occur to me at the time that voters had simply punted their judgment on Bill Clinton for another two years. 

#1.  2006 

And now we get to the sweet spot....the midterm masterclass of my lifetime.  I mentioned in my review of the Presidential elections that 2004 was my first "online" election and that I was crushed when it ended badly.  It took a while to recover, but by the fall of 2005 I had election fever again and plenty of indicators were pointing to a very good midterm ahead for Democrats with Senate races in particular starting to shape up favorably.  I dove into the new cycle right around the dawn of this blog's formation in late 2005 and stayed highly engaged for the next year amidst the "Culture of Corruption" backdrop and the rise of Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel as national figures.

Having been beaten down by three consecutive ugly election night outcomes, I was long overdue for a win on November 7, 2006.  There were times when I was cynical that the country would do the right thing but they mostly delivered with sweeping Democratic wins in all corners of the country.  Most satisfying, Democrats picked up the six seats they needed to take control of the U.S. Senate, giving rise to some of my favorite Senators of the last generation, including Sherrod Brown, Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, and Jim Webb.  

Interestingly, when I look back at the 30 seats the Democrats gained in the House, my reaction is:  that was it?!?  Given how dominating the Democratic performance was in so many gubernatorial and Senate races, and even in downballot legislative races, it just felt like the number of House pickups should have been higher.  Of course, there were quite a few near misses and the majority of the seats narrowly lost in 2006 went the Democrats' way two years later. 

But the 2006 midterm was about more for me than just stacking up impressive Democratic wins.  It was about a version of the Democratic Party being exactly as I prefer it to be and wish it still was.  The Democratic Party of 2006 was an ideologically diverse national party with compelling, charismatic figures from the left, center, and even the center-right capable of winning elections in just about any zip code.  Urban liberals and people of color were voting the same way as rural, white conservatives in southern Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and southeastern Oklahoma, all while the last remaining redoubt of the Republican Party could be found in the upscale suburbs in almost every city and state.  Again, this partisan breakdown will always be my comfort zone.

The nation was governable with the Democrats being the coalition party that it was in 2006, and it makes me sad that I'm not likely to ever see another election like it or be a member of a political party that brought together such a diverse faction of people to govern our states and the country.  A generation removed from 2006, it's hard to ignore the extent of the rot that has emerged since this coalition has disbanded.

 

It just hit me as I was writing this that "Mark My Words!" is 20 years old.  I can't say that I would have been surprised in November 2005 to discover that I'd still be submitting posts to this site a generation later, but its a benchmark that merits citation.  I'm also not surprised that the electoral culture and partisan coalitions have evolved much more than I evolved in the last 20 years, regrettably not in a way that pleases me.  Still, thanks to those who have joined me for any part or the duration of my two decades of blogging.  With luck, I'll still be around and still posting here 20 years from now and have something to say that somebody considers worth paying attention to. 

 

 

Ranking The Ten Presidential Elections of My Lifetime

Whether it's a Presidential cycle, a midterm cycle, or those cruel off years that end with odd numbers like this one, I always get election nostalgia in November.  I recorded network coverage of most Presidential elections of my lifetime on VHS and routinely revisit those cassettes each autumn, or at least I did until I reached an impasse with my 20+ year old VCR.  Fortunately, You Tube exists as a replacement option, featuring recorded coverage from past election cycles.  I took a trip down memory lane this past month and watched a couple of old election night broadcasts.  The trip down memory lane is always a thrill, particularly testing how well your memory serves you in recalling the timing and pecking order of events.

I figured it would be a fun exercise to break down the 10 Presidential elections of my lifetime, or at least the elections that I recollect going back to age 11.  It was an even split with Democrats victorious in five of them and Republicans victorious in the other five.  My nostalgia for them doesn't necessarily break down strictly on partisan lines though.  Without further adieu....

#10.  2016

I had a really bad feeling on the eve of election 2016.  Not only were some polls getting too close for comfort, the vibe was really, really off at Hillary's election eve party in Philadelphia.  I remember warning coworkers that with polls tightening in Michigan and Pennsylvania, they should be prepared to wait until after midnight to find out who our next President would be, contrary to the conventional wisdom that Hillary would wrap things up early.  

But even though I had that sinking feeling on election eve, it never occurred to me that Trump might still win.  Even if Michigan and Pennsylvania went off the rails, there was no indication that Hillary was in any trouble in Florida, North Carolina, or Wisconsin.  Not a single poll showed Trump winning there.  It seemed as though she had every pathway to 270 electoral votes locked down.

Unfortunately for our republic, the polls were wrong.  They were weighted too heavily to 2008 and 2012 turnout models and didn't correctly measure the tectonic shift to Trump by the white working class.  When things had started to go haywire in Florida and North Carolina early in the evening, and with bellwether counties in red states like Vigo County, Indiana, shifting dramatically toward Trump compared to Romney, I knew we were in the deepest imaginable trouble.  By 8 p.m. central when exit polls showed Hillary and Trump tied in Minnesota and Michigan, I knew Trump was gonna win.  

It was a gut punch unlike anything I've ever felt on an election night.  Not only was it a worst-case scenario, it was an entirely unexpected worst-case scenario that came from entirely out of right field.  I try to never go into an election night thinking I have the country figured out, but after November 8, 2016, I've taken my own advice on that to an even further heightened level of paranoia....and apparently for good reason!

Ever since I was a teenager, I've stayed up all night on election nights, knowing votes typically keep rolling in until daybreak before a cooling period first thing in the morning.  But I went to bed at 4 a.m. the day after the 2016 election, having seen all I could bear to see and feeling an ache in my gut that demanded me to power down.  And honestly, election nights have never really been much fun after November 8, 2016.  I lost my innocence along with the country.

#9. 2024

I went into election 2024 recognizing that America was about to do the unthinkable and reelect Donald Trump even after all he put the country through and how much worse he openly promised to be if given a second term.  I recognized the multiple layers of ruinous darkness that awaited us with the world's biggest and most sociopathic con man on the precipice of governing with unlimited court-bequeathed impunity.  We've only scratched the surface of the consequences of the decision American voters made in November 2024 by reelecting this man.

And while the consequences of the 2024 election will almost certainly be more devastating than the consequences of the 2016 election, I was less distraught on election night because I saw November 5, 2024, coming in a way I didn't eight years earlier.  There's something to be said about making peace with one's own mortality in advance of the moment of reckoning, and I guess that's true with a country just as it is individually.  Dying of a house fire on election night 2016 still hit harder than dying from a long-spiraling asteroid on election night 2024.

#8. 2020

As the election results began to roll in on November 3, 2020, it was deja vu all over again.  Biden was further ahead of Trump in virtually every poll than Hillary had been four years earlier, but it was abundantly clear very early in the night that the polls were even more wrong than they had been in 2016.  I'd been warned of the "red mirage" we were expected to see in the swing states on election night because so many ballots were coming by mail, but I also knew enough about elections to sniff out problems in the early results even before the more Democratic surge of mail ballots flowed in.

Even if Biden had performed consistent with 2020 polling, that election still would have been a drag.  Deep into the throes of the pandemic, the country was already in a very dark place and the election winner would be governing an embittered country with a tidal wave of problems.  And at a more superficial level, it just isn't fun when no calls can be made on election night because of the uncertainty of ballots delivered by mail, an uncertainty that wouldn't be resolved for days to come.

And while it became a bit more clear in the a.m. hours on Wednesday that Biden was poised to come back and win, Trump set the poisonous tone in the wee hours of the night by defying the pending election outcome, declaring himself the winner, and setting up the bowling pins for what would inevitably become January 6.  It all just felt gross, especially since Biden ended up only winning by a 43,000-vote margin in three states whose electoral votes got him to 270.  And it felt even more gross as I could feel it in my bones that this monster who's darkened the country's doorstep like the Grim Reaper for more than a decade was probably poised for a comeback.  

#7. 1988

My cynicism about American politics and the judgment of voters can be easily explained by the era in which I came of age.  Whatever economic boom that was allegedly going on nationally after two terms of Ronald Reagan could just as well have been occurring on Mars for those of us living in the rural Midwest and experiencing the worst economy since the Great Depression.  It was inexplicable to a fifth-grade Mark--growing up in a staunchly Democratic home and being dealt one economic body blow after another--why voters would ever choose to stick with the same team for another four years.

It didn't help that old man Bush came across as such as a prickly smartass, much more so than the son who despite my distaste for his Presidency generally seemed affable.  It defied belief to me that anyone could compare the mild-mannered Michael Dukakis with the sneering Bush-41 and decide they wanted to vote for the latter, but heading into November 8, 1988, I was plugged in enough to acknowledge that that seemed likely.  My dad was the eternal optimist and kept predicting Dukakis victory, but my mom was realistic enough to keep him in check and prevent me from getting my heart broken too badly.

I rode with my parents as they went to the polls around 6 p.m. that night to vote.  Before we left, only Indiana and Kentucky had been called, both for Bush.  It was less than an hour when we returned and the map was full of red, with Bush already beginning to close in on 270 electoral votes.  Things had gone badly earlier than I was prepared to accept, and if I recall, it was the call for Maryland of all places that formally tipped the race to Bush.  I remember tears flowing after the Bush win, but I also remember bouncing back as the night went on and being fascinated by the states yet to come, cheering for Dukakis to save as much face as possible and score some wins.  I think he actually overperformed expectations by winning 10 states, which made him the most successful Democratic Presidential nominee since the year before I was born.  

The 1988 election did little to quell my early cynicism about elections, but it set up a more satisfying claim of victory the next go-round.

#6. 2004

This was my first "online election", and my goodness was it ever exciting.  There was a trio of now-defunct election-themed websites of all ideological stripes that I frequented daily, and along with Real Clear Politics and their poll aggregators, I barely remember anything else I did in the summer and fall of 2004.  Presidential politics was the fuel that kept my engine running, and I was refilling the tank constantly.

I was by no means convinced of John Kerry's victory at any point in that campaign, but there was no point where a Kerry win seemed out of reach, and the rather rudimentary conventional wisdom that I clung to was that undecideds overwhelmingly broke for the challenger.  When the polls were tied on the final weekend of the election, I went into November 2, 2004, thinking Kerry would pull it out.  It didn't take long after the returns started rolling in for me to realize that my preferred scenario--and the rosy early exit polls--were gonna come up short.  

Still, it was an exciting night with a lot of swing-state cliffhangers.  In the end, Kerry didn't even do as well as Gore in most of the swing states but still won more than he lost.  Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to get to 270 electoral votes, blocked primarily by a 100,000-vote Bush win in Ohio that ostensibly came down to provisional ballots that were supposed to be counted in the days ahead.  I went to my newspaper job before sunrise to fill in the election return grid before press time, but I was despondent knowing the hill was almost certainly too high for Kerry to crest.

I went home at noon as Bush was declaring victory and bragging about "earning political capital to privatize Social Security".  Then I crashed in bed for seven hours and wondered how everything had gone so wrong, realizing that with expanded GOP majorities in the House and Senate that little was standing in the way to stop Bush.  Part of me wasn't surprised that Bush began to slump quickly in his second term, and as he finished that second-term neck deep in an Iraqi quagmire and a paralyzing financial crisis, I also appreciated that it was a good thing for the Democratic Party that Kerry didn't win that one.

#5. 1992

I was most excited about the 1992 election during primary season.  I had an early favorite in Iowa Senator Tom Harkin and watched every news program, read every primary-related story, and watched every candidate debate cheering on my guy.  Alas, Harkin's campaign was over by March and I had limited enthusiasm for presumptive nominee Bill Clinton.

As is so often the case, partisan tribalism prevailed and I ultimately came around.  Still, it was never the same.  After living under Republican Presidents for most of my 15-year-old life, it took a while for me to accept that Clinton was poised to end that streak.  Further, I was never fully convinced that Clinton's victory wouldn't be spoiled by Ross Perot, who remains the biggest Presidential cycle wild card of my lifetime.  For better or for worse, I went into the evening November 3, 1992, largely at peace that Clinton was likely to win.  

And it was satisfying...sort of.  Even though exit polls showed Perot drew evenly from would-be Bush voters and would-be Clinton voters, it never really felt as though Clinton got the mandate that the Electoral College victory implied given that he prevailed with only 43% of the popular vote.  As I reflect upon election night 1992, my two primary takeaways have been that my best memories of that election cycle occurred several months before November 1992, and that George H.W. Bush's one-term Presidency holds up quite a bit better with the passage of time.

#4. 2008

I'm guessing most Democrats of my vintage would declare 2008 as their favorite election night of their lifetimes, and would probably be surprised that it's not at the top of my list, or at least closer to the top.  Make no mistake that I enjoyed the decisive, map-expanding Obama win even if part of me was a little disappointed that it wasn't even a bigger blowout.  So why does election 2008 only rank fourth of the 10 elections of my lifetime?

First, I was exhausted and demoralized by the extended primary fight where my preferred candidate (Obama) limped to the finish line, even losing the final primary of the year in South Dakota when he had already locked up the nomination but a majority of Democratic voters still came out to cast a vote of no confidence against him.  In retrospect, I think the drawn-out primary slugfest made Obama a better candidate by the time the general came around, but the magnitude of weakness it exposed toward our nominee by a huge chunk of the Democratic coalition kept me checked out of election season until after Labor Day.

Second, the financial crisis that preceded election 2008 lurked like the Grim Reaper.  I knew the election winner would be inheriting a calamity and would see his political capital drained quickly.  

Still, it was an emotional night listening to the acceptance speech of the first black President and witnessing how many others were genuinely moved by it.  If only for a moment, it felt like maybe the nation's racial sins were absolved, and that felt good for about five minutes.  But there was no lingering buzz on November 5, 2008.  There was no sunshine on the horizon or general feeling of immense satisfaction that should come after a victory that comprehensive. Compared to the last three election nights, I'd take 2008 a thousand times over, but I didn't feel as much love toward it as most of my ideology and I don't think it holds up particularly well in retrospect.

#3. 1996

I wasn't exactly loving life during my freshman year of college, but the 1996 Presidential election gave me something to be passionate about that fall.  "Passionate" might be kind of a strong word for an election in which the architect of NAFTA was running for reelection, but I had long predicted that the overreach of the Gingrich Congress would help Clinton look like a moderate, and election 1996 vindicated me.  It also didn't help that Republicans ran the fossilized and charisma-free Bob Dole as Clinton's challenger.

Nonetheless, it was exciting going into an election night confident of a Democratic blowout.  My two favorite Senators--Paul Wellstone and Tom Harkin--were up for reelection that year and their prospects also looked increasingly sunnier as the election drew closer.

I couldn't help but be a little disappointed though as the aforementioned lack of "passion" surrounding Clinton was evident by the lethargic turnout, the lowest for a Presidential election since 1924.  This led to Dole beating expectations on election night and avoiding the GOP equivalent of 1988 that I went into the night anticipating.  The polling average had Clinton prevailing by 15 points, but he ended up winning by barely half that, and ultimately losing three states he'd won in 1992 while picking up two that he didn't.  

Furthermore, there was an astounding lack of coattails to go with Clinton's big win, with the GOP actually netting a couple of Senate seats.  Democrats failed to hang onto open seats even in friendly places like Oregon and Clinton's home state of Arkansas.  Voters seemed to be making a conscious split decision and hedging their bets against Clinton's first-term agenda being realized.

Still, Clinton won.  Wellstone won.  Harkin won.  It was a great election night at a time in my life when I needed something to celebrate.

#2. 2012

Democrats were crowing about their narrow but steady polling advantage in the lead-up to the 2012 election.  They've made a habit of this for most of my adult life and have had to eat plenty of crow over the years due to their irrational exuberance.  But they delivered in 2012...big time!

An election night that was supposed to be a cliffhanger turned into a perfect storm for Democrats, with Obama knocking down steady and decisive victories in just about every swing state.  How did they do it?  By turning out black voters at a rate higher than their share of the overall population for the only time in recorded history.  By improving upon Obama's already overwhelming advantage among Hispanics four years earlier.  By maintaining shockingly steady numbers among working-class whites, especially in the battleground Midwest.  And by depressing turnout among Republicans who either couldn't abide Romney's Mormonism or didn't deem his private equity persona compatible with the rising tide of right-wing populism.

The story was even more joyous in the Senate as Democrats overperformed across the board in a substantial battleground map, winning effectively every race on the table and managing to pick up two seats in a cycle where they were very exposed going in.  They managed to hold seats in North Dakota and West Virginia at a time when support for Democrats was in collapse in both places at the top of the ballot.

2012 was what an incredible election night felt like, and I was old enough to know it at the time.  It was more satisfying to me than Obama's first win in 2008, and by no small amount.  I couldn't have predicted how quickly and how severely it would all fall apart, but at least I had one last hurrah before the American electoral landscape became unthinkably ugly.  I'm skeptical I'll ever experience an election night this comprehensively satisfying again.

#1. 2000

I was 23 years old and recently out of college when the first Presidential election of the new millennium was on the cusp of shaking me to my core.  Despite the early lack of enthusiasm by pretty much everybody, this race was getting interesting as it approached the finish line.  The polls swung dramatically after each convention but by the time of the debates had settled into an evenly split affair.  I had never experienced a Presidential election that was too close to call going into election night, and the prospect of the electoral vote going one way and the popular vote going the other seemed very real. I sensed that something special was about to happen on November 7, 2000, but I still wasn't mentally prepared for the roller coaster ride that evening afforded me.

My suspicion was that Bush would win the popular vote but Gore would eke out the Electoral College with the Florida win that most people thought seemed likely.  The opposite happened of course, with Gore finding the kind of late momentum that seldom goes to the incumbent party in an open-seat election.  I suspect this was fueled by a bunch of would-be Nader voters who got the willies at the prospect of a Bush Presidency and changed their vote to Gore at the last minute.  As a result, Gore was able to hang on to some states that Nader was expected to cost him, and thus remain competitive nationally even with Florida on the knife's edge.

The monthlong recount in Florida is what lives on in everybody's memories about election 2000, but there were a half dozen states won by less than one percentage point that year, leading to multiple cliffhangers extending well after midnight.  And while the networks' malpractice in calling states far earlier than the tabulated data justified was annoying at the time, it also lent itself to the high drama of the night.  For hours, the electoral vote was just as close as the popular vote, with Bush pulling narrowly ahead, and then Gore, and then Bush again.  I never could have imagined an election night being this exciting until I lived it, and at the perfect age to really soak it all in.

Election 2000 did not go the way I hoped it would, and in less than a year, the stakes of America's choice manifested itself in ways vastly more serious than anyone who went to the polls in November 2000 could have possibly imagined.  But even knowing all of that, I feel fortunate to have lived through the most thrilling election night in American history, and to do so as a young man who was able to ride that wave for the rest of my life.  

 

I'm pretty sure the best elections of my lifetime are all in the past.  That's not just a matter of nostalgia.  It's a matter of polarization making elections less fun, more nasty, and vastly more consequential.  Hardened partisanship also makes things less interesting.  It's increasingly rare to see candidates from one party outperform the top of the ticket by more than 1 or 2 points.  Hardscrabble working-class voters in Ohio will toss out an incumbent like Sherrod Brown, an avatar of a blue-collar Democrat, and replace him with a Mercedes dealership owner like Bernie Moreno because it's now unthinkable to deviate from your tribe.  This not only makes for poisonous politics.  It makes for boring election nights.

Even on logistical matters, the media is more conservative about making calls than they were a quarter century ago, in large part after getting egg on their face from premature calls in the past.  But there doesn't seem to be a good balance between calling Florida 45 minutes after poll closing time in 2000 and waiting five hours after poll closing time to call Rhode Island in 2024.  Again, this makes for boring election nights.

Perhaps I'll live long enough to usher in a new era of elections where things become fun again.  I'm not counting on it, but it would be lovely for both democracy and my own preferences if election nights once again resembled a civic affair and a fair-fight competition.  Who can say if that time will ever return, but I feel very confident in proclaiming we shouldn't expect it for 2028.

"Fork in the Road": Does The Democratic Party Move Center or Left?

Last week's off-year elections simultaneously represented a unified backlash to Trump's first year in office and an impossible crossroads for the Democratic Party.  Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Shirrell won their respective gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey several points above and beyond expectations or what the polls prepared us for, and did so by running on a centrist platform that didn't scare off any faction of their coalition.  On the same night, Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor New York City with a majority of the vote running unapologetically as a Democratic Socialist.

This incoherent set of results is a preview of the 2028 Democratic nomination fight, and it won't be pretty.

It's also not at all clear which path is better for the Democratic Party or more importantly for the future of the country.  The establishment will assure us that the upside potential is greater if we elect mushy moderates, but keep in mind that the Republican Party's establishment 10 years ago likewise assured us with similar cocksure certitude that softening its edges and courting more nonwhite voters would be its path to long-term survival.  Instead, Donald Trump ran on explicit ethnonationalism, driving up his numbers among whites by enough to win without minority voters......and eventually winning over a huge chunk of the minorities who he managed to co-opt into his coalition by doubling down on the same ethnonationalist message.  Expect any hypothetical Democratic comeback to likewise function with significant defiance to what the party establishment tells them is the formula for revival.

To be sure, there are both features and bugs to whichever path the Democratic Party ends up taking.  Let's break them down a bit.

The moderates are likely right that they'd be better positioned for victory by running to the center....but only as it applies to the NEXT election.  The long-awaited generational tug-of-war has arrived and politicians are gonna have no choice but to pick sides.  Do they serve the older voters who have secure 401Ks, homes with inflated values, and a steadfast refusal to pay another nickel (can't say penny anymore!) in taxes?  Or do they serve the increasingly destitute younger voters coming of age into an economy that has no use for their human capital and little interest in elevating them from their parents' basements?  

It's hard to envision a path forward for one group that doesn't operate to the exclusion of the other, but certainly any politician running as a centrist would feel duty-bound to serve the interests of the older faction of its coalition, which will only alienate and radicalize the younger faction.  A centrist might unify both groups in opposition to the unpopular governing party in the short term, but that coalition will come apart when the "moderate" puts their thumb on the scale for policies that lock young people out of the job market, lock them out of the housing market, keep them from ever considering procreation, and still invest in the insurance market risk pools consumed mostly by their grandparents.  There's not gonna be much in it for younger people, and they'll respond by gravitating in one of two directions:  to Donald Trump and Nick Fuentes, or to Zohran Mamdani and AOC.

It only took one week after the election of "centrists" Spanberger and Shirrell before voters were reminded of what "centrists" do when put in the position of governing:  a complete capitulation to hard-liners in the form a "deal" that represented complete surrender.  Whatever spin defenders of the "Gang of Eight" grace us with in the aftermath of surrender, the message will get through loud and clear to the faction of the Democratic coalition demanding policies that fix what's broken.  This same template will play out over and over again on issue after issue.  The "centrists" will obstruct meaningful policy initiatives in service of the "haves" while the "have-nots" keep getting told to wait another day for their piece of the pie.  The have-nots will quickly recognize this pattern and when said moderates ask for their vote again the next time, there will be little motivation to return the favor.

So socialism is the way to go then right?  Uh....about that.

As has been proven everywhere outside of New York City and Vermont, socialists have a vastly more challenging entry point with the electorate than do the moderates, meaning its much harder to put together a winning coalition at the outset.  And if you can't win elections, you're assured of getting your teeth knocked in on absolutely everything.  Until socialists prove they're able to be victorious outside of a few city council wards in left-wing enclaves like Seattle or Minneapolis, it's gonna be hard to take them seriously for carrying Pennsylvania in higher-profile elections.

Enter Zohran Mamdani.  As mayor of New York City, he'll represent our highest-profile socialist experiment thus far.  And from what I've seen so far, he has the eloquence and charisma to be the movement's most successful salesman to date.  It's nonetheless delusional to imagine that socialism could ever work at a municipal level, commandeered by a mayor who lacks the ability to print money to finance his ambitious agenda.  He's already on record saying he'll need to go to New York's Governor and Legislature for authorization for revenue generation, and there's little indication any of them would have an interest in extending that authority to him.  The likeliest consequence is a web of broken promises so deep that the odious Elise Stefanik gets elevated to the New York statehouse next November.  

But even if Mamdani falls on his face as I think is more likely than not, don't expect socialism to go away.  With each passing month, another wave of Gen Z voters comes of an age into a society locking them out of every aspect of a middle-class life.  They're not gonna permanently accept their parents' generation and the tech oligarchs hoarding absolutely everything for themselves.  Mamdani wasn't born in the United States so he could never be a national emissary, but as the status quo continues to break down for an increasing share of the electorate, somebody else is assured of filling his shoes.

The widely held argument is that socialism can't work because "eventually you run out of other people's money".  That's probably 90% true, but there are nations throughout the globe who have made a version of socialism work.  The places that have made it work generally have two things in common though:  they have small populations coupled with large oil reserves, and they have ethnic homogeneity.   I suppose the United States could nationalize its oil companies and free up billions of dollars in resources, although that alone would trigger a civil war. but the toothpaste is never going back into the tube with ethnic diversity.

And history has also proven that the quickest way to derail even a successful experiment in socialism is an increasingly diverse population.  It invariably becomes an exercise in "us versus them".  The closest America ever came to socialism was during the New Deal and after World War II when the country was 90% white, but it all began to unravel with the civil rights movement of the 1960s.  This was no coincidence, just as it's no coincidence that the Scandinavian countries' longer experiment in socialism is currently breaking down as large-scale immigration is altering its homogeneous population.  For whatever reason, humanity likes to sort itself by race and ethnicity, and if the majority no longer sees a socialist experiment as serving "our people", it's doomed for failure.  We'll accept nihilistic plutocrats sodomizing us before we let "those people" have a win.  It's sadly the way it's always been and most likely always be.  The fact that America's older population is majority white and its younger population is majority nonwhite will instill both racial and generational fault lines that will be all the more difficult to penetrate.

With all that said, who is best-positioned to win the Democratic Party's 2028 nomination tug of war?  The Abigail Spanberger wing or the Zohran Mamdani wing?  My money is on a fleeting Spanberger wing prevailing, but quite possibly for the last time, and it will be complicated by two other predictions that I stand by.

First, I don't see Trump going away willingly.  He'll do whatever he feels he needs to rig the election either for himself or for his hand-picked successor, confident that the Supreme Court's ruling of unconditional Presidential impunity will protect him.  The signs will be there in advance that Trump will be putting his thumb on the scale, and Democrats will consolidate toward the "safe" choice believing that a consensus moderate can run up the score high enough to overcome the dirty tricks Trump has up his sleeve to steal the election.

Suppose for the sake of argument that this consensus moderate prevails and goes on to govern the nation in 2029.  It's impossible to imagine that the same wing of the party that just folded like a cheap accordion in ending the government shutdown will have the moxie to bulldoze the rule book as will be expected in a post-Trump world.

As I said last year, the future is autocracy.  The public has gotten a taste of a President who elbows his way past constitutional guardrails to get things that he wants done, and voters aren't gonna accept returning to the recalcitrant paralysis of our constitutional system as their lives swirl the drain.  If the moderates won't discard constitutional guardrails and hold their political foes at the end of a gun barrel just as Trump has done and Republicans will continue to do post-Trump, then Democratic voters will move on to the next socialist candidate who will.

It's a bleak prognosis on the future of our politics, but when you couple the choice voters made to give autocracy a try last November and the public's comprehensive subjugation at the hands of a tech oligarchy keeping all of the globe's resources for themselves, I struggle to see an alternative. 

The 2026 Congressional Midterms....Hypothetically

A year ago this weekend, when it was clear that Donald Trump was favored to be re-elected President, I predicted that "the future is autocracy".   The majority of people undoubtedly scoffed, beset by a failure of imagination and a childish naivete about what a sociopath like Trump was capable of given full, unequivocal impunity from the Supreme Court.  As I said at the time, most people would be comforted by the manifest destiny delusion that autocracy could never happen here because....because....well because we're the United States of America!

Twelve months later and here we are.   A near-majority of the country came to the conclusion in 2024 that one man--a career criminal--should be bequeathed more power than any other human in the history of our species.  And now this career criminal is telling the country that he intends to steal $230 million of their money to pay himself reparations for past Justice Department prosecutions. 

And even with all the stunning headlines of unprecedented plunder and extralegal corruption playing out, it's a good bet that at least 40% of the country is cheering on Trump every step of the way.  The same 40% would undoubtedly be just fine if we never had another election again, bestowing the power upon Trump and his hand maidens to choose the line of governing succession for the rest of civilization.  In a movement where "owning the libs" is the only thing that matters, multigenerational subjugation of political opponents to an omnipotent monarchy and forcing them to stare down the barrel of the sovereign's gun would be the ultimate sugar high!

It's kind of adorable that I'm joining the chorus of online election analysts speculating about the "midterms" as if any semblance of a normal election will play out 365 days from now.  That's why I'm putting a long line of asterisks on these predictions and pretending they will play out with some semblance of normal procedure and transfer of power.  

In the real world, Trump is strong-arming every red state to redraw district lines in a way that, with collaboration from the Supreme Court, would mean that even a D+10 generic ballot would not likely be enough to get Democrats a House majority.

In the real world, Trump is undoubtedly planning a scenario similar to what he successfully pulled with Argentina, promising to use tariff money to bail them out conditional upon how they vote in the midterms, denying the money to any state that dares to elect Democrats.

In the real world, Trump will escalate his efforts ahead of election day to deploy red state national guard members to literally hold people in blue states at gunpoint, with the intent to intimidate turnout.  He'll probably state these intentions out loud and it will be treated like business as usual.

In the real world, Mike Johnson and John Thune will take whatever steps they need to keep from seating the 218th Democratic House member or the 51st Democratic Senator.....or any Democratic numbers above and beyond that for that matter.  And there will be no consequences when they don't.

With all this in mind, it's comically quaint for me to proceed with my predictions, but it's a tradition and is fun in the abstract, so I'll take an early look at the state-by-state Senate race landscape for 2026.

Alabama--Republican Tommy Tuberville is quitting the Senate after one term to run for Governor.  He'll go from being the dumbest Senator in the country to the dumbest Governor in the country. There's a long list of Republicans waiting to succeed him and no Democrats above the fourth tier of recruitment options stepping up.  Will be a predictable 20+ point Republican win.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Alaska--Two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan seems like exactly the kind of charisma-free backbencher who could be felled in a perfect storm.  The Last Frontier has been trending incrementally toward Democrats and former Congresswoman Mary Peltola would make for a strong recruit and give the party a modest chance of victory.  So far, however, Peltola has been dragging her feet Hamlet-style and remains undecided which race to run for as she could go for Governor or try to retake her old House seat.  That doesn't give me hope that her heart is in it for a long shot Senate race against an incumbent, and I'm not seeing much indication the Dems have a Plan B if Peltola decides against it.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Arkansas--Two-term GOP incumbent Tom Cotton is running for reelection in a state that has quietly become one of the reddest states in the country a generation after being a Democratic stronghold.  He'll win it again.  The only question is if Arkansas can find any Democrat willing to run against him.  They didn't last time!  Prediction: GOP hold.

Colorado--I had honestly forgotten that Democrat John Hickenlooper was elected to the Senate in 2020.  If a guy that nobody knows announces his intention to run for a second term, does that mean he's really in the U.S. Senate?  Seriously though, the Rocky Mountain State has become such a Democratic cinch that Hickenlooper is more likely to be defeated in a primary than the general election and I'm betting against that too.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Delaware--As far as I know, Democrat Chris Coons is planning to run for a fourth term next year.  Pretty safe bet he wins if he runs.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Florida--Put this race on the outer periphery of the battleground just in case there's a perfect storm.  Republican Ashley Moody was appointed to fill Marco Rubio's seat when Rubio was selected to be Secretary of State, and Moody appears to be the favorite to run in next year's special election for the final two years of the term.  The best Democrats have been able to do so far is former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins.  The Democratic collapse in this former quintessential swing state has been astonishing, and even in an ostensibly Democratic climate with a quasi-incumbent with little name recognition, I'm still betting on a double-digit Republican win.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Georgia--Accidental Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff runs for a second term in what I expect could be the marquee Senate race of the cycle. Ossoff defeated a Republican incumbent in a January 2021 runoff election that was the textbook definition of a "perfect storm".  With two special elections on the ballot that included a race with a popular African American candidate (Rafael Warnock) boosting black turnout and positioning Ossoff to offer $1,400 checks in the mail as a reward for voting for him, Ossoff pulled off a one-point win.  Georgia's demographics keep shifting in the Democrats' direction and next year would seem like a cycle where Ossoff's party will be on offense, but I still think Ossoff will be the underdog.  I just have a hard time believing he'll be able to inspire black turnout sufficient enough to win without Warnock or another proven African American vote-getter sharing the ballot with him.  And, of course, Ossoff won't be able to offer the carrot of $1,400 checks in the mail if he wins as he did in 2021.  GOP Governor Brian Kemp declined to run but ultimately I think a generic Republican would have a small advantage over Ossoff.  The large GOP field won't settle until next year's primary, but I like the chances of whoever prevails better than I like Ossoff's chances.  Prediction:  GOP gain.  Running Total:  GOP +1.

Idaho--I guess three-term GOP incumbent Jim Risch is running for a fourth term.  He'll get it.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Illinois--Long-time Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin is calling it a career, leaving an open seat in a state where Trump significantly outperformed expectations in 2024.  There's a multi-candidate field of Democrats vying for the seat with Chicagoland Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi looking like an early frontrunner.  Nobody in the Republican field looks the least bit intimidating and it seems extraordinarily unlikely we should expect a GOP upset.  However, I would expect the trend of downstate Illinois "voting against Chicago" to accelerate, canceling out any hypothetical rejection of Trump in the heartland.  The possibility of a Senator with the surname "Krishnamoorthi" will likely reinforce the obsolescence of the old Obama and Durbin coalitions, conceivably by enough to hold the Democratic victory to single digits.  Prediction:  Dem hold.

Iowa--Democrats' impressive overperformance in a number of Hawkeye State special elections this year notwithstanding, I still think Republican Joni Ernst was on track for a mid-to-high single-digit victory in 2026 if she hadn't chosen to retire.  On paper, Ashley Hinson seems like a stronger GOP candidate than post-gaffe Ernst, having represented (and outperformed the GOP baseline) in a northeastern Iowa district that will likely be a statewide bellwether.  As for the Democrats poised to challenge her, Jonathan Turek seems to be generating the most favorable buzz but I expect its mostly Democratic wishcasting.  Zach Wahls would likely be a tough sell....a candidate of, by, and for Iowa City.  This remains a race to watch but my early bet is a decisive win for Hinson.  Prediction:  GOP hold.

Kansas--With the possible exception of Dan Sullivan in Alaska, first-term Republican Roger Marshall comes closest to representing the personification of the bland arrogance and entitlement of the incumbent party without having any kind of personal brand to shield him from a wave.  That's why I hope Democratic Congresswoman Sharice Davids decides to swing for the fences and take Marshall on.  She'd be a long shot even in a perfect storm, but a candidate of her skill level should rise to the challenge of the dire times we live in.  Particularly with Trump's self-imposed woes on the ag economy, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly's winning coalition is out there for the taking if Davids runs and figures out how to tap into it.  It's not likely available to any of the current third-rate and fourth-rate Democratic contenders for the seat.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Kentucky--I have to admire Democrat Amy McGrath for her pluck.  Even after getting bulldozed by long-time Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell six years ago, she's still running again for his open seat.  She seems like the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and will continue to be a substantial underdog against a crowded Republican field that includes Congressman Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron.  Something bonkers would have to happen for this race to become competitive.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Louisiana--When two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy voted to impeach Trump in 2021, I knew he'd struggle to win re-election whether Trump did or didn't mount a political comeback.  I stand by that position.  Cassidy, normally as close to a sane voice as you'll find in the contemporary GOP, is out there nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace prize to atone for his past sins, but Trump won't forgive and forget and he'll remind his voters not to either.  The seat will stay in Republican hands no matter which MAGA troglodyte Pelican State voters choose over Cassidy.  Any sliver of hope for a Democratic upset was likely extinguished when former Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards declined to run.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Maine--A perfectly on-brand comedy of errors is playing out presently in the state where Democrats are generically best-positioned to pick up a seat.  Five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins has a well-earned reputation as a survivor, but Maine should nonetheless be a cinch to flip if the GOP brand is as poisonous as Democrats like to think it is. With that said, here's the state of the Democratic opposition a year before the election:  a charismatic and progressive oyster farmer (!) and former Marine named Graham Platner got into the race and got the base worked up, only for oppo researchers to discover he had once dismissed rape in the military, used homophobic slurs, criticized both police and the intelligence of rural Americans....and that he has a Nazi tattoo on his chest!  Meanwhile, after months of dithering, Maine's Democratic Governor Janet Mills decided she was gonna get into the race and embark on a Senate career....at age 78!  A nightmare scenario is now unfolding with Maine voters continuing to express their early preference for Platner while the Democratic establishment is putting their thumb on the scale for Mills.  It's a huge mess, but at least for now, I still suspect Collins is more likely to lose than win.  This would be Mainers' first opportunity to judge Collins entirely within the context of a protest vote against an incumbent President who lost the state by 7 points last year.  I'll put it this way....if Susan Collins is re-elected to a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, it means that November 3, 2026, was an absolutely disastrous failure of a night for the Democratic Party.  Prediction:  Dem gain.  (Running total Dems +0)

Massachusetts--Democratic incumbent Ed Markey continues to not get the memo that the Democratic base is done indulging octogenarian egos.  After nearly a half century in the House and two terms in the Senate, Markey is running again.  He's facing primary challengers from his right (Seth Moulton) and potentially from his left (Ayanna Pressley), but honestly my money is on Markey pulling it out in a multi-candidate field.  From there, it's an almost certain Democratic victory in the Bay State, which is true even if one of Markey's primary challengers prevails.  I'm hoping it's not Pressley as she would be a bad look for Democrats nationally.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Michigan--The Wolverine State has had two close Senate races in a row and I suspect 2026 will be another.  Two-term Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is retiring and there's a multi-candidate Democratic field attempting a promotion with no early frontrunner.  State Senator Mallory McMorrow is the darling of the left.  Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed would rally Dearborn's Palestinian community and terrify much of the rest of the state.  And suburban Detroit Congresswoman Haley Stevens, a long-time Israel ally, would likely be the most competitive in most necessary places but would be obliterated among Dearborn-area Palestinians.  None seems well-positioned to put together the increasingly fragile winning coalition Democrats need in Michigan.  The Republicans seem inexplicably poised to renominate former Congressman Mike Rogers who was a weary choice two years ago and seems even less inspiring now having been unable to ride Trump's winning coattails.  I'm betting that the environment and candidate selection is just bad enough to deny Republicans a victory, but it'll be close and it's very much a race worth watching.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Minnesota--Two months ago, Minnesota Republicans promised that their slow launch for candidate selection would blow wide open as soon as Democratic Governor Tim Walz announced his intentions.  That hasn't happened....and it's downright bizarre.  With Democratic incumbent Senator Tina Smith having announced her retirement, Republicans absolutely have an opening, particularly if the Democrats nominate Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan over Congresswoman Angie Craig.  But it ain't gonna happen if the Republicans nominate Royce White again.  Nobody from the Republican field even rises to the third tier of candidates and would struggle even to beat Flanagan let alone Craig in a blue state in a defensive cycle.  Unless there's a surprise announcement from a better GOP recruit in the very near future, you can probably stick a fork in Republicans prospects for victory in the Gopher State.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Mississippi--Democrats have drawn some blood on Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in their two previous races against her, but still fell several points short of victory.  I'd be surprised if it's as competitive this time and expect that Hyde-Smith not only wins, but wins more comfortably that she did in 2018 or 2020.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Montana--Not so long ago, the Treasure State would have been on the table for a competitive Senate race in a defensive cycle for the governing party, but there's no indication that two-term Republican incumbent Steve Daines has anything to worry about.  His lone Democratic challenger seems less than intimidating and Jon Tester has no interest in trying to mount a comeback.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Nebraska--I'll admit to being surprised at how well left-coded independent candidate Dan Osborn did last year.  The de facto Democratic challenger to a two-term Republican incumbent outperformed Kamala Harris by 13 points.  It was a stark reminder of how big of a deal both candidate packaging and separation from the national brand is, with Osborn getting 66,000 more votes than the Democratic Presidential nominee by running as a blue-collar populist...in Nebraska!  Osborn is running again this year and I'm bummed that he's being wasted in Nebraska, where I still think he's a serious long shot.  In neighboring Iowa or even Kansas, I think he could pull it off.  Nebraska is a really heavy lift though, and incumbent Senator (and former Governor) Pete Ricketts is probably at least a little stronger of a challenger than Deb Fischer was last year.  It's certainly a race to watch though and I don't want to underestimate Osborn after his performance last year.  Prediction: GOP hold.

New Hampshire--It's quite telling that the strongest GOP recruit for a Democratic-held Senate seat this year is John Sununu, a former Senator who was defeated 17 years ago.  Maybe the Republicans can dust off Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Gordon Smith in Oregon for another bid too!  Seriously though, the Sununu name probably won't hurt in the Granite State and since retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving behind an open seat, it represents one of the Republicans' best prospects for a pickup.  I think Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas is favored against either Sununu or Massachusetts carpetbagger Scott Brown if he gets the nomination instead, but I also don't want to underestimate Republicans' durability in New Hampshire.  I don't know the culture that well in New Hampshire and always assume the MAGA message is not their brand of Republicanism, but then I remember that Pat Buchanan won the 1996 Republican primary in New Hampshire.  So I don't think it's gonna be a GOP year in New Hampshire, but I've thought that every cycle going back to the Obama years and am never fully proven right.  Prediction: Dem hold.

New Jersey--In a perfect storm, I think grandstanding blowhard Cory Booker might be vulnerable, especially with a good chunk of the Garden State's Democratic coalition having realigned to MAGA in the last few years.  Even in a cycle where the Democrats are on offense, I can imagine Booker being held to a single-digit win next year, but it's very hard to see him losing.  Prediction: Dem hold.

New Mexico--Freshman Democrat Ben Lujan prevailed by an underwhelming 6 points back in 2020, underperforming Joe Biden significantly.  If Harris had won last year and Republicans were on offense, I think Lujan could be vulnerable this go-round, but it seems doubtful they'll go with Trump's party in the midterm, and at least thus far no credible Republican has stepped up to challenge Lujan.  Prediction: Dem hold.

North Carolina--I've been rightly skeptical about the oft-cited assurances that the Tar Heel State is about to flip blue as Republicans have outperformed the polls and continued their winning streak ever since Obama's unlikely 2008 win.  Part of me still has my doubts that the retiring Thom Tillis's seat is gonna actually flip blue this cycle or that Democrat Roy Cooper is the guy to do it, but as of now, I'm narrowly tipping this one in the Democrats' favor.  Former RNC chair Michael Whatley just doesn't seem like what the electorate will be looking for in 2026.  Democrats are very bullish on Cooper but they were just as bullish on Kay Hagan and Cal Cunningham until they failed to get past the finish line.  If Cooper does pull this out, I think it'll be by 1 point or less.  Prediction:  Dem gain (Running Total: Dem +1)

Ohio--I'm a bit surprised that after Sherrod Brown's embarrassing defeat to a Mercedes dealership owner last year, they were able to persuade him to run again, especially for a special election where he'll only hold the seat for two years if he manages to win.  It makes me admire Brown even more that he's going for it.  With the Mahoning Valley and most of Ohio's small industrial cities having realigned to MAGA, I just don't see a path to victory for Brown or any other Buckeye State Democrat even in a bullish national environment.  I hope I'm proven wrong but I think appointed incumbent Jon Husted will be elected to finish out his term.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Oklahoma--First-term Republican incumbent Markwayne Mullin will be re-elected by more than 20 points and probably more than 30 points.  He might even get a free pass with no Democratic challenger.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Oregon--Democrat Jeff Merkley will be seeking a fourth term next year.  He'll get it.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Rhode Island--While I've always thought the Ocean State's demographics suggest increased MAGA competitiveness, it hasn't happened to any serious degree yet and 2026 is not likely to be the year that it starts.  In other words, I expect five-term Democratic incumbent Jack Reed to get a sixth term.  Prediction: Dem hold.

South Carolina--Democrats got themselves excited about the possibility of unseating grotesque Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham six years ago when polls suggested vulnerability.  It turns out the polls were wrong and Graham went on to win by 10 points.  As loathsome as he is, I'm taking the over this year on Graham's reelection performance margin.  Prediction: GOP hold.

South Dakota--Considering how bipartisan the Mount Rushmore State was 20 years ago, it's striking how Democrats are no longer even remotely competitive there in any capacity in the 2020s.  Two-term Republican incumbent Mike Rounds seems like the kind of guy who would have been vulnerable in a perfect storm, especially in the middle of a self-induced GOP farm crisis, but it's unlikely he'll have more than a "some dude" challenger next year.  I wonder if former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin still lives in South Dakota.  Kind of surprised she disappeared without a trace 15 years ago.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Tennessee--Freshman Republican Bill Hagerty is as soulless of a MAGA water carrier as exists anywhere in the country but that won't hurt him in the least in today's incarnation of the Volunteer State, as uncompetitive of a place as there is anywhere in the country.  He'll be safely reelected and will probably have no more than a fourth-rate Democratic challenger if any at all.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Texas--It's a very unsettled field for both Democrats and Republicans in the Lone Star State.  In an ordinary year, four-term Republican incumbent Jon Cornyn would be poised to cruise to another term, but he faces primary challenges to the right in his own party that seem legitimately threatening.  Impeached right-wing Attorney General Ken Paxton seems likely to be Cornyn's most serious foe, but it's entirely possible that divided opposition could keep the nomination in Cornyn's hands.  As for the Democrats, both 2024 nominee Colin Allred and rising star lawmaker James Talarico are running with relatively high fanfare, both hoping that the controversial Paxton wrestles the GOP nomination.  But after the Hispanic vote shifted hard to the right last year, I suspect Democrats' efforts to corral Texas were set back at least another a decade.  Even if Paxton is the Republican nominee, I suspect he'll win by mid-single digits.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Virginia--Last year's surprisingly modest Harris victory in the Old Dominion was a reality check that Virginia is not yet out of reach for the GOP.  With that said, three-term Democratic incumbent Mark Warner has a strong brand and wouldn't be felled easily even in a perfect storm.  It's a pretty safe bet he'll have the wind at his back this year with the regional economy in tatters after Trump's federal employee job cuts.  Prediction: Dem hold.

West Virginia--Two-term Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito should be as safe as they come in a general election.  The only way I could see her not getting a third term is if she lost a Republican primary to an even more shameless MAGA apologist.  Prediction: GOP hold. 

Wyoming--After a few moments struggling to remember who Wyoming's junior Senator was, I recalled it was freshman Republican Cynthia Lummis.  Bet on her safely winning a second term and bet against a hypothetical Liz Cheney comeback.  Prediction: GOP hold.

 

I'm often more bearish about predictions than most on the Democratic side, but interestingly, I don't really think there's that much distance between me and the average Democratic-leaning prognosticator this time around.  It's possible they'll be more bullish that I am on Sherrod Brown's chances in Ohio or Jon Ossoff's chances in Georgia but I don't think too many people would consider me crazy for thinking they're slight underdogs.  And I'm probably more optimistic about taking out Susan Collins than most Democrats, especially with the current Graham Platner-Janet Mills disaster unfolding.  Meanwhile, even typically sunny Democrats would likely concede that there's plenty of opportunity for things to go wrong in Michigan, New Hampshire, or North Carolina.  

My prediction of Democrats netting a single Senate seat isn't quite a best-case scenario, but plenty of things will have to go right even for this outcome.  The Democrats would still be in the minority 52-48, and my money is on John Fetterman switching parties either before or after the midterms, digging the Democratic hole deeper.

Is it still possible that Democrats could win the Senate next year?  They'd have to win the long shot race in Iowa and some combination of even longer shots in Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and Florida.  I'd put their chances at less than 2%.

But 2% quickly drops to 0% when acknowledging that Trump will deploy unprecedented levels of dirty tricks in every competitive jurisdiction to ensure his preferred outcome.  If Sherrod Brown is polling favorably, Trump will fill streets of Cleveland and Columbus with his red-state national guard crime syndicate to fire tear gas and rubber bullets at those entering polling stations.  If Derrick Van Orden narrowly leads Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin's Third District but the remaining vote is from a Democratic-leaning city, Trump will order the vote to be stopped and dare Democrats to challenge it in the courts filled with his appointees.  And if that doesn't work and Rebecca Cooke still manages to get a victory certified, Mike Johnson will refuse to seat her.

The era of fair elections is over. The era of peaceful transfers of power is over.  Americans voted for autocracy last November and I hope they like it because they're gonna be stuck with it for the rest of all of our lives.

It's About The Guns....Obviously

I've gone back and forth on the gun issue for decades, but I'll confess it's been a low-salience issue for me just as it is for the vast majority of voters not heavily immersed in gun culture.  My perspective on the gun control debate has mostly been guided by my partisan political preference, where the risk-reward calculus on the gun issue overwhelmingly favors Democratic lawmakers looking the other way as the gun supply proliferates and the body count rises.  I've always personally preferred the idea of more legal limits on firearm ownership, but since the country quietly moved the other direction since the 1990s, I didn't think it was worth the risk of fracturing whatever is left of the Democratic coalition still in love with their guns.  Even now, after the Trump realignment, I don't think we should underestimate that number as having the potential to swing elections.

With that said, it feels like we've hit a tipping point in the 2020s.  The poisonous radicalization of the Internet and its ability to both create and glorify mass shooters simply cannot coexist with a gun supply that keeps outpacing population growth.  Mass shootings have been a thing since I was in college, but the ones that seemed most shocking in scope in the past are business as usual today, with each previous high-profile shooting serving as inspiration for the next.

And while mass shootings via assault rifles in the suburbs dominate the headlines, they pale in comparison to the body count of handgun shootings primarily in our cities.  Just as it's impossible to keep our expansion pack supply of assault rifles out of the hands of people who shouldn't have them, it's also impossible to keep our expansion pack supply of handguns out of the hands of people who shouldn't have them.

The obvious answer to the gun issue has been staring me in the face for decades but I finally put my finger on it in the last year or so:  America has a gun volume issue, a vicious cycle of supply and demand reinforcement that has made our problems worse and will continue to.

The United States had approximately 100 million guns in 1990.  Thirty-five years later, that number has quadrupled to nearly 400 million.  The country that ranks second in gun volume is India, which has 72 million guns.  India, of course, has 1.5 billion people.  Per capita, America has 10 times more guns than any other country in the world.  It also has 10 times more mass shootings than any other country in the world.   Correlation doesn't always mean causation, but it's pretty hard to ignore that arithmetic.  

And therein lies the problem.  When there are more guns than human beings within the United States borders, how do you stop anybody from getting one?   Whether it be teen mass shooters in schools or the Bloods settling scores with the Crips, it's always going to be ridiculously easy for just about any of them to get their hands on a firearm when there are 400 million to choose from.  Much as we like to think hypothetical new laws would be a silver bullet, no pun intended, we have little hope of success until we bend the demand curve for guns down and wait for the supply to follow the same trajectory.

We have two different supply and demand models.  The rifle market is dominated by hunters and by gun fetishists, people whose identity is defined by their arsenals.  As a percentage of the population this group is relatively small, but they nonetheless number in the tens of millions and wield tremendous political strength.  Rifles are generally not used to commit a high percentage of the violence, but they are used in the vast majority of high-profile mass shootings.  Nobody even seems to be able to agree on what does and doesn't constitute an "assault weapon" and I certainly don't know enough on firearm assembly to break the stalemate.  That definitional ambiguity will probably make any attempt to ban them ineffective, even in the unlikely event that such a ban was to pass.

The other supply and demand model is for handguns, which are responsible for most shootings.  Here, our perverse culture of firearm saturation constantly feeds upon itself.  Because so many handguns are in circulation in the first place, more gun crimes happen and fill the hearts of everyday Americans with fear.  Everyday Americans then respond by buying a gun of their own for personal protection.  This additional demand drives supply up higher, and a disproportionate number of the new guns manufactured continue to find their way into the hands of those who shouldn't have them.  This drives up fears in yet another cohort of everyday people who then decide they need a gun of their own.  Rinse and repeat.....

If introducing yet-again more guns into circulation "made us safer", as gun rights advocate argue, we'd have seen it play out in the last 35 years when the U.S. population has increased by 33% while the guns in circulation have increased by more than 200%.  Nearly quadrupling the number of guns in the next 35 years seems incredibly unlikely to change that.  At that same time, it's hard to tell people they shouldn't be able to protect themselves, meaning it won't be easy to convince law-abiding citizens concerned for their own safety or their families' safety to pass on buying a gun as is needed to bend the supply curve down.

I am no fan of the bullying tactics employed by antismoking groups to humiliate and overcharge smokers over the last few decades, but it was unquestionably effective in driving down tobacco use.  Some variation of the same template would be needed to drive down demand, followed by supply, of guns.  What worked in reducing the number of smokers is not really transferable to firearms in that the customer base of guns is vastly more engaged about their gun purchases than smokers ever were about their cigarette habits.  Still, there are options such as a carnage tax on weapons and ammunition or insurance and license requirements, consistent with the approach used to snuff out smoking, that could be imposed on guns without violating the Second Amendment.

At least for me, the tipping point on gun access and supply has been crossed, but it remains unclear whether it was has with the country.  Throughout recent history, gun violence has always been a "you problem" to the majority of Americans.  They offer "thoughts and prayers" and move on with their lives.  "You" get to pick up the mop and clean up the bloody mess where your child perished.  "You" get to sponge their brain matter off the walls.  Until it happens to "me", it's not salient.  It will only become salient with an uptick in mass shootings substantial enough that more people feel at risk.  Until then, the minority who values their guns more than anything else in life will keep on winning.

Obviously, any kind of gun reform is a nonstarter with Republicans controlling the legislative process.  We're familiar with the pattern: after offering thoughts and prayers, Republicans will filibuster several news cycles complaining that the real problem is mental health and not guns right up until the story gets upstaged by something else.  Once it does, the same Republicans will resume with their 75-year project of defunding mental health programs.  But it's a little less unthinkable that, by 2027, a hypothetical Democratic Congress could get Trump to get the ball rolling.  I don't think Trump has any real vested interest in gun culture and if he believed there was a critical mass in favor of gun control in the country, I could see him making a deal.

Of course, even with any legislative and judicial momentum for enacting and enforcing gun control measures, there will be more failures than successes.  It's not as if a switch will be flipped and mass shootings will drop to zero or even by half overnight.  With 400 million guns in the country, we'll only start to see the violence begin to atrophy when supply goes down.  Even in the best of times, this would be a long-term project and would require a trial and error legislative approach. Some things would work and some things wouldn't. Lawmakers would have to be vigilant and honest about things that weren't working and alter their solution proposals from there.  And if we've learned anything in the last 20 years, it's that "vigilance" and "honesty" aren't in abundant supply among our polarized elected officials, so I'll forgive readers for being cynical about their aptitude to take this difficult issue on with any success even with a national consensus.

Still, I think the framing I've outlined above is the most persuasive approach.  We have a gun volume problem.  There are far too many guns in circulation and no realistic way to stop people who shouldn't have them from getting them because of that volume.  If we could figure out a way to dramatically reduce the supply without making the law-abiding people most vested in gun ownership from feeling that their arsenals are under siege, we would likely see a corresponding decline in gun violence.  That's a big ask in our ferociously polarized country, but as more people have to worry about mopping up their own children's blood off the school building floor other than just wishing thoughts and prayers to others when they have to do it, it seems a little more doable. At the very least, I'd bet on a national consensus on gun reform happening before a national consensus on health care reform.