Thursday, November 30, 2006

My Final Tally

Now that Larry Kissell has conceded in NC-08, I believe the outcome of every election in the country has now been confirmed, even though Victoria Wulsin still hasn't officially thrown in the towel in OH-02. I was way too cautious in my predictions and ended up faring much worse than I did in 2002 and 2004, not that I'm complaining about being wrong this time. Let's take a look at which battleground races I got right and which I got wrong, both in the Senate and the House.

Senate: I was generally on the mark in Arizona, where I predicted Kyl would win by 7; in Connecticut, where I predicted Lieberman to win by 7; Nevada, where I predicted Ensign by 13; Rhode Island, where I predicted Sheldon Whitehouse would upset Lincoln Chafee by four points; and Tennessee, where I predicted Corker would win by five.

I predicted the right winner, but was way off on the margins in Michigan (I predicted Stabenow by 7; she won by 16); Minnesota (I predicted Klobuchar by 5; she won by 20); Montana (I predicted Tester by 8; he eked out a one-point victory); New Jersey (I predicted Menendez by 4; he won by 9); Ohio (I amendedly predicted Brown by 2; he won by a whopping 12); and Pennsylvania (I predicted Casey by 5; he ended up smashing Santorum by 17).

I predicted the incorrect winners in the Senate races in Maryland (where my original prediction of Cardin by 6 was infinitely closer to my amended prediction of Steele by 1), Missouri, and Virginia.

Overall, I predicted a net gain of three Senate seats for the Democrats, missing the target by three as the Dems picked up six seats.

In the House, my record was even more abysmal, as this was the most unpredictable year for House elections in my lifetime. I never made predictions for House elections before this year, so I have nothing to compare to it to, but suffice it to say I will almost certainly have better predicting success in 2008.

Successful calls in battleground races: AZ-01 (Rick Renzi), AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords), CA-04 (John Doolittle), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), CO-03 (John Salazar), CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave), CO-05 (Doug Lamborn), CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter), CT-02 (Joe Courtney, winning by the narrowest margin of any House race in the country), FL-09 (Gus Bilirakis), FL-16 (Tm Mahoney), GA-08 (Jim Marshall), GA-12 (John Barrow), ID-01 (Bill Sali), IL-06 (Peter Roskam), IL-08 (Melissa Bean), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), IN-02 (Chris Chocola), IN-08 (Brad Ellsworth, even though I was way off on the margin), IN-09 (Baron Hill), IA-01 (Bruce Braley, but again I seriously lowballed the margin), IA-03 (Leonard Boswell), KY-02 (Ron Lewis), KY-04 (Geoff Davis), LA-02 (Charlie Melancon), MI-07 (Tim Walberg), MI-09 (Joseph Knollenberg), MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter), MN-02 (John Kline), MN-06 (Michelle Bachmann), NE-01 (Jeff Fortenberry), NE-03 (Adrian Smith), NV-02 (Dean Heller), NV-03 (John Porter, although I underestimated the strength of Tessa Hafen's challenge), NY-03 (Peter King), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl), NC-08 (Robin Hayes, a race I'm still sick about since the DCCC all but ignored it even though it was one of the closest race in the country), OH-02 (Jean Schmidt), OH-06 (Charlie Wilson), OH-12 (Pat Tiberi), OH-13 (Betty Sutton), OH-18 (Zack Space, although I seriously lowballed his margin), PA-07 (Joe Sestak), PA-10 (Chris Carney), SC-05 (John Spratt), TN-09 (Steve Cohen, who won much more handily than I expected with Harold Ford's brother in the race third-party), TX-17 (Chet Edwards), TX-22 (Nick Lampson), VT-AL (Peter Welch), VA-02 (Thelma Drake), WA-05 (Cathy McMorris), WA-08 (Dave Reichert), WV-01 (Alan Mollohan), WV-02 (Shelley Moore Capito), and WY-AL (Barbara Cubin, although I was shocked by how close it was).

Near-misses: CT-04 (Chris Shays holding on over Diane Farrell), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan over Christine Jennings), KY-03 (John Yarmuth over Anne Northup), NM-01 (Heather Wilson hanging on over Patricia Madrid), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce over Mary Jo Kilroy), PA-06 (Jim Gerlach over Lois Murphy), PA-08 (Patrick Murphy over Mike Fitzpatrick), and WI-08 (Steve Kagen over John Gard).

And finally, I was WAY off with these erroneous howlers: AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell over J.D. Hayworth), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney over Richard Pombo), CT-05 (Chris Murphy over Nancy Johnson), FL-22 (Ron Klein over Clay Shaw), IA-02 (Dave Loebsack over Jim Leach), KS-02 (Nancy Boyda over Jim Ryun), MN-01 (Tim Walz over Gil Gutknecht, and I'm particularly pleased that I got this one wrong), NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter over Jeb Bradley, my biggest blunder of a call in 2006), NH-02 (Paul Hodes over Charles Bass), NY-19 (John Hall over Sue Kelly, another stunner), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand over John Sweeney), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds coming back from near-death a month earlier to beat Jack Davis), NC-11 (Heath Shuler over Charles Taylor), OH-01 (Steve Chabot easily hanging on against John Cranley), and PA-04 (Jason Altmire over Melissa Hart).

True, I did call more races correctly than incorrectly, but I fumbled most of the true battlegrounds and didn't see a significant number of longshot candidates like Shea-Porter, Altmire, or Loebsack coming. Then again, most people didn't. Overall, I predicted a net gain of 20 Democratic seats and it looks as though they'll pick up 29 seats, unless Rodriguez manages to upset Henry Bonilla in the TX-23 runoff next month, which I expect is unlikely. I guess if I have to be wrong, I prefer to error on the side of too FEW calls for Democrats rather than too many.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Final Look at Election Winners and Losers in Minnesota

I realize this is coming nearly three weeks later than most election post-mortems, but nearly all of my free time in the past 20 days has been dedicated to the digestion of as many election returns as possible, particularly in Minnesota where my knowledge is most prolific. It was a very good year for Democrats in the state of Minnesota and I will document all the statewide and Congressional races of note, beginning with the two hotly-contested House races and then moving the statewide races.

I had a feeling in the closing weeks of the campaign that Democrat Tim Walz would pull off a victory in what only a few months earlier seemed like a kamikaze run against six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht, but I didn't think he'd win by a solid six-point margin. Considering Gutknecht's mid-summer radio ad buys, I don't necessarily think that Gutknecht was unable to see this challenge coming. Nonetheless, his response to the challenge was absolutely abysmal, with boilerplate TV ads where the incumbent couldn't even be bothered to make an appearance in his own commercials and a series of mismatched debate performances where Gutknecht was very clearly on defense at all times and losing badly to the charismatic Walz.

I wrote a diary on Daily Kos in September on how Tim Walz could eke out a victory in MN-01 with huge margins in his native Mankato and the college town of Winona, along with fighting Gutknecht to a draw in his native Rochester. In the end, Walz won by huger margins that I would have deemed possible in Mankato and Winona, but also managed to win Rochester by an astounding eight percentage points. Walz outperformed my expectations pretty much everywhere, padding his margin with wins in a few of the more conservative southwestern farm counties. It'll be interesting to see how Walz holds up in 2008 and (hopefully) subsequent election cycles. The one thing that concerns me is that Walz's presence on the campaign trail is his chief asset....and that presence will not be as abundant if he's stuck legislating in DC rather than travelling the district full-time as he did in 2005 and 2006. Nonetheless, an excellent win for Walz, who I saw speak on two occasions and evoked a level of passion that I haven't seen since Paul Wellstone. Keep an eye on this guy. Big things could be coming from him.

As for MN-06, a number of things went wrong and helped voters in this conservative district fall into the arms of wingnut Republican Michelle Bachmann even though I predicted last summer that Bachmann was too conservative even for MN-06. Since Bachmann got 50%, it's not fair to say that center-left Independence Party candidate John Binkowski cost Wetterling the election, but it would have probably at least been close without him in the race. Nonetheless, far too many things went wrong in this race for Binkowski to shoulder the blame.

Wetterling hemmed and hawed for months, stating at one point that she couldn't win in this district and then pursued a Senate run. When it was clear she wouldn't get the nomination against Amy Klobuchar, Wetterling made an eleventh hour leap into this House race, breaking her word against a moderate Democrat El Tinklenberg who, in hind sight, would have probably been a much better candidate against Bachmann. Bachmann's reputation as the Legislature's wingnut-in-chief helped Wetterling pull off a small lead in September polls, but that's when the bottom fell out of her campaign.

The polished Bachmann always mopped the floor up with the political novice Wetterling in debates and public forums and managed to mask her nutball tendencies to the voting public, all while the Wetterling campaign failed to effectively define her opponent. In the end, some controversial ads by the Wetterling campaign (which I never saw) were heavily scrutinized by the local media and by the final week of the campaign, my dad was hearing from campaign insiders that Wetterling was toast.

In retrospect, Wetterling's respectable performance in 2004 was the product of running against Mark Kennedy and having him step into the trap of swiftboating a figure as sympathetic as Wetterling. Without Kennedy making her look good by comparison this time around, Wetterling's flaws were more easily apparent. I'm expecting that Bachmann will make a regular habit of embarrassing Minnesota on the national stage, and could find herself perennially vulnerable in her district. Here's hoping the Dems give El Tinklenberg another shot in 2008.

Regarding the statewide races, I start out with egg on my face over my early predictions of a close Senate race. As recently as six months ago, I ascribed to the conventional wisdom that Mark Kennedy would be a formidable Republican candidate and that the Minnesota Senate race would be close. Considering Klobuchar's home base of Hennepin County and familial ties to the Iron Range was being pitted up against Kennedy, the golden boy of outer suburbia, I spun this as a classic Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota grudge match (which we ended up getting in the state's gubernatorial election which I'll get to later) that really excited me as an aficianado of Minnesota politics.

But what we ended up with excited me oh so much more. How could I have possibly predicted that Mark Kennedy would put forth the lamest Minnesota Senate campaign since Democrat Ann Wynia in 1994? Even in my wildest dreams, I could not have envisioned Amy Klobuchar riding out a 21-point landslide. Her success touched nearly every nook and cranny of the state. She won 79 of Minnesota's 87 counties, as opposed to John Kerry who won 24 in 2004, and even Bill Clinton who scored what seemed like an insurmountable Democratic record of 76 counties back in 1996. Klobuchar eked out narrow wins in some stalwart GOP counties such as the German-American settled Republican bastions of McLeod County (Hutchinson) and Brown County (New Ulm), counties that I never expected would be won by a Democrat in a statewide election in my lifetime.

Kennedy even performed miserably in outer suburbia, winning only two of the six counties in his Congressional district, and by paltry margins of less than three points each at that. In the end, the combination of the anti-Republican tide and Kennedy's astounding weakness make me think even the hapless incumbent Senator Mark Dayton could have beaten Kennedy, but I'm thankful to Amy Klobuchar for not making me sweat out that prophesy.

It's hard to say whether Klobuchar had coattails or whether the DFL mood of the electorate transcended her, but either way, Democratic candidates vastly exceeded expectations across the ballot in Minnesota. In the back of my mind, I considered incumbent Republican Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer to be beatable, but I also believed that the inclination of center-left voters in Minnesota to cast their ballot third-party in low-profile races would likely drag Kiffmeyer across the finish line once again.

If DFL candidate Mark Ritchie was going to take out Kiffmeyer, with her built-in advantages in the St. Cloud area where she always scores huge margins, I figured it would be by the skin of his teeth. Once again, I was wrong. Ritchie beat Kiffmeyer by a convincing five points, winning big in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, where third-party candidate strength derailed Buck Humphrey's chances in 2002, but also fighting Kiffmeyer to a near tie in the three main suburban counties (Anoka, Dakota, and Washington). If you're a Republican winning Dakota County by less than one percentage point, you will not win statewide. Such was the case with Kiffmeyer. And good riddance!

A Minnesota Poll from September showing DFL Attorney General candidate Lori Swanson with a nearly 20-point lead should have clued me in to how powerful not being a Republican was going to be in Minnesota this election cycle. In some sense it did, as even though the Minnesota Poll always oversamples Democrats, the margin Swanson was polling against Republican challenger Jeff Johnson helped me breathe a sigh of relief that we would hold that office. Nonetheless, I was surprised by the blistering margin of 13 points that Swanson won by, scoring victories throughout the state and winning 65 Minnesota counties compared to Johnson's 22.
A much bigger shocker was the State Auditor race where I found it hard to believe an incumbent with the surname Anderson in Scandinavian-heavy Minnesota could lose to a challenger named Otto in a low-profile down-ballot race. But much to my surprise, Democrat Otto smashed Anderson almost as strongly as Swanson did Johnson in the Attorney General's race, winning by 11 points and winning 56 out of the 87 counties. Anderson even got trounced in her home county (Dakota), which is a suburban enclave where she won by 16 points in 2002.

Just as stunning were the tremendous gains the DFL made in the Legislature, notwithstanding the sad defeat of Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson in his increasingly conservative central Minnesota district (unfortunately, I could see Johnson's defeat coming more than a year ago). Nonetheless, the breadth of DFL gains throughout the state was breathtaking and the list of Republican casualties jaw-dropping. Phil Krinkie in Lino Lakes. Gone! Brian LeClair in Woodbury. Outta there! Carrie Ruud in Bemidji. Good to know ya! The DFL picked up even more legislative seats in Rochester and somehow managed to pick up a Senate seat in freakin' Fergus Falls, perhaps the deepest red redoubt of outstate conservatism. The DFL now has nearly 2-1 supermajorities in both Houses, and we will definitely need them given that the DFL once again failed to pick up the statehouse.

And with that segue, I'll now focus on the one disappointment for Minnesota Democrats on election night, and that of course is the gubernatorial election where incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty held on by a one-point margin. I'm of the mind that DFLer Mike Hatch's eleventh-hour implosion cost him the election, although there are plenty who disagree with that consensus. Judi Dutcher's "What's E-85?" gaffe probably didn't do it alone, but it probably cost Hatch votes in the corn belt as Hatch's numbers were softer than expected in the lower reaches of the proverbial "L". There's no other explanation for me why ethanol-heavy Swift County, a western Minnesota DFL stronghold and birthplace of the Farmer-Labor Party went for Hatch by only 7 points, and why the swing county of Renville (even more ethanol-heavy) a few miles down the road went for Pawlenty by nearly eight points.

But Hatch pointed the shotgun barrel at his other foot and squeezed the trigger with the "Republican whore" brouhaha. When the first 10 minutes of a televised debate the Friday before the election is dedicated to the "frontrunner" defending his potty mouth, it's unlikely he'll be a frontrunner much longer. I'm kind of surprised that didn't hurt Hatch even more than it did, and probably would have if it had gotten more media coverage outside of the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market. Visiting my parents in southeastern Minnesota the Friday before the election, the story was barely a blip on the local news, and Hatch's numbers did not seem to be as suppressed in that region as they were in the metro area. Similarly, Hatch's numbers did not seem to take a beating in the state's southwestern corner as much as they did in west-central Minnesota, which is in the Twin Cities media market. Voters in the Worthington area are largely beholden to the Sioux Falls, South Dakota, media market, where Minnesota politics merits hardly a word, and where Dutcher's gaffe probably never passed their ears.

And, of course, Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, can conclusively be branded a spoiler this cycle, with the DFL stronghold of Ramsey County giving Hutchinson nearly 10% of the vote (with most of it coming from the bluest districts in the city of St. Paul) and almost accounting for the difference between Hatch and Pawlenty by itself. I'm not one to blame third-party candidates for DFL defeats, but if there was ever a clearcut example of that phenomenon in play it was this gubernatorial election. Ultimately, it might be a blessing to have Pawlenty around heading in the 2008 Senate election, as DFL fatigue would be more likely to set in had Hatch been victorious amidst DFL supermajorities in the Legislature, and with Norm Coleman poised to be the beneficiary of that fatigue. On the other hand, Pawlenty's veep stock went up significantly with his victory, and he would now make a very attractive running mate for somebody like John McCain, increasing the likelihood of a Republican upset in Minnesota in the 2008 Presidential election.

As stated earlier, the Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota dynamic that I predicted would be in play in the Klobuchar-Kennedy race actually did take hold in the gubernatorial election, with Pawlenty winning in much the way he did in 2002, scoring supersized margins in the suburbs and benefitting from a third-party spoiler. This warrants mentioning for 2008 because the Senate race is likely to follow the same trajectory. It's too soon to comment much on this matter without a DFL challenger selected, but Norm Coleman's 2002 victory is likely to follow the exact same formula as Pawlenty's this year. Finding a challenger that can peel off more of those second-ring suburban voters than Mike Hatch or Walter Mondale (circa 2002) were able to is imperative in beating Coleman, because we're at the point now where we can't win statewide if we're not victorious in the second-ring suburbs...and they will likely be just as difficult to take away from Coleman as they were from Pawlenty.

Then again, I totally underestimated Minnesota's DFL tide in 2006. I'll remain optimistic for now that we can keep the ball rolling heading into the next cycle.

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Still Too Soon To Call?

I've been waiting all week to make a final tally of my predictions, but there are still a handful of House races where there has yet to be a call because of outstanding provisional ballots. I'd be surprised if the outcome is changed in any of the remaining races at this point, but I continue to wait patiently just in case.

For the past 10 days, almost all of my free time has gone to the digestion of election returns at the micro-level (by county, by city). I expect this cycle to continue for the next three or four weeks. As I've been saying for years now, election night is only the beginning of the fun for true political junkies.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Election '06 Post-Mortem

What a fantastic night! I went into the evening with expectations of modest Democratic gains and ended up riding a tidal wave that trickled down throughout the ballot to legislative and constitutional office races. Most astounding was the number of upsets (PA-04, KS-02), the number of endangered Republican moderates who survived the challenge (Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, and probably Heather Wilson), and the razor-thin margins of dozens of races. It seems like most of the one and two-point races broke to the Republicans, saving the party from a loss of 45-50 seats in the House. There's a tremendous amount of information to evaluate here, so I'll go through some of the battleground races state by state and offer some color commentary that may or may not prove useful (considering how bad my predictions proved to be this year, I understand if you take them with a grain of salt).....

Arizona--Nothing could have prepared me for the sound defeat Democrat Harry Mitchell handed incumbent GOP firebrand J.D. Hayworth in AZ-05. I must confess I haven't followed the race very closely, mostly because I couldn't imagine a scenario where Mitchell was gonna win there. Attractive centrist Democrat Gabrielle Giffords' defeat of arch-conservative talk show host Randy Graf was less surprising in the open AZ-08 seat, but I was even skeptical we were gonna get that one back in August. My hopes for Arizona trending the Democrats' way were inflated in 2000 and 2002, suffered a temporary setback in 2004, but are once again on the uptick.

Arkansas--The solid double-digit victory of Democratic Attorney General Mike Beebe over former GOP Congressman Asa Hutchinson in the open gubernatorial race renewed my hopes for Arkansas bucking the regional trend and remaining a Democratic state despite its social conservatism. With a candidate like John Edwards or Wesley Clark on the ticket, I can Arkansas going blue in the 2008 Presidential election.

California--Sorry about Phil, Sara. It was no surprise that Arnold Schwarzenegger was gonna win big against lackluster challenger Phil Angelides in the nation's most populous state. I fear there will plenty of left-leaning Arnold voters who will be horrified to discover that the Arnold of 2007 will sound alot more than like the Arnold of 2005 than the Arnold of 2006. On the plus side, Democrat Jerry McNerney took out corrupt GOP incumbent Richard Pombo in a Republican-leaning central California district. Considering that the Dems all but conceded this race when McNerney beat their man Steve Filson in the primary, this victory was particularly surprising. Always nice to see Abramoff protege John Doolittle was rewarded with re-election near Lake Tahoe though.

Colorado--The rapid political transformation of formerly red-state Colorado continued last evening with a blistering 15-point victory for Democrat Bill Ritter in the open gubernatorial race in Colorado. The Dems also picked up the Dem-leaning 7th district in the U.S. House with another strong victory by candidate Ed Perlmutter. After the Ted Haggard scandal broke here, I had hopes that evangelical disillusionment in Haggard's backyard would influence the two competitive House races. As expected, however, strong Republican prominence helped Marilyn Musgrave eke out another term and helped polarizing newbie Doug Lamborn win in a landslide in the crimson red Colorado Springs district despite murmurs that the race could be competitive.

Connecticut--Here's a state that has surprised me all year long and continued to last night. First comes this awkward anti-war millionaire from out of nowhere and manages to defeat the Democratic Party's former Vice-Presidential candidate in the Democratic primary. Lieberman pressed onward and virtually everybody left him for dead, but Lamont's spectacular and largely self-imposed flameout gave Lieberman the ability to stage a comeback that culminated last night with a 10-point victory, made possible almost exclusively by Republican voters. I don't trust this guy any further than I can throw him and alarms went off in my head when I heard the announcement of Rumsfeld's resignation today, fearing the Bush would install Lieberman in the post and thus allow a Republican to be appointed to fill his seat in Congress. That didn't happen, but I get the feeling the Democrats will be screwed by Joe-mentum again in the very near future. Just as astounding were the results of the three battleground House races in Connecticut, which went exactly the opposite of what many expected as recently as two weeks ago. Long-time Republican incumbent Nancy Johnson was not considered particularly vulnerable in the affluent CT-05 until a couple of late polls showed Democratic challenger Chris Murphy running ahead. Murphy ended up trouncing Johnson and providing the Democrats their only sure victory in a state that was expected to be a GOP killing field. As it stands now, Democrat Joe Courtney appears to have beaten Republican incumbent Rob Simmons in the deep blue CT-02 in the eastern part of the state by the slimmest of margins. A recount is taking place as we speak and the margin so slim (less than 200 votes) that it could conceivably swing back to Simmons. Then there's moderate Republican Chris Shays, one of three top candidates for Republican Survivor of the Year. He was considered DOA months ago with his affluent, anti-war district seemingly poised to turn him out in favor of Democrat Diane Farrell, who shocked the world when she came within two points of beating the long-time incumbent Shays in 2004. Farrell only managed to trim the margin by one point this year, failing to unseat Shays, who will actually prove useful as an increasingly rare voice of moderation in a hard-right GOP House caucus. It's kind of nice that we managed to take back the House without purging all of the Republican moderates.

Florida--The gubernatorial race and Senate mismatch played out just as everyone projected, but three competitive House races were anything but predictable. All the polls indicated that Democrat Christine Jennings was poised to take over the GOP-leaning 13th district in the Sarasota area, vacated by Katherine Harris, but Jennings fell short by only a couple hundred votes. This would have been another great district to pick up on our way back to being a "coalition party", but it wasn't meant to be. Mark Foley's old seat seemed a shoo-in for Democrat Tim Mahoney to pick up a month ago, but the Republicans put forth a great deal of effort to sell voters in the Republican-leaning district on Joe Negron, the replacement candidate for Foley. It almost worked, but Mahoney eked out a one-point victory in the end. I also lacked faith in the ability of Democrat Ron Klein to unseat Republican Clay Shaw down in the West Palm Beach area, but Klein pulled off the upseat. Nice to go against the tide in Florida and actually pick up a couple of seats rather than constantly losing elections there.

Georgia--The only two competitive races in Georgia were seats held by Democrats forced into more Republican territory after a court-ordered mid-decade gerrymander.....and boy were they competitive. Democrat Jim Marshall in central Georgia is in the uglier district of the two, which is 70% white and 60% Republican, and faced a tough opponent in former Congressman Mac Collins. It took well into today before a winner was declared but Marshall pulled it off. It's abundantly clear that Marshall, as conservative as he is, will struggle like hell to keep this seat every two years, and is probably living on borrowed time. A much different scenario played out in eastern Georgia's 12th district, which continues to lean Democrat even after the gerrymander, but where one-term incumbent John Barrow lost his political base in the college town of Athens in the gerrymander and faced a more charismatic opponent in former Congressman Max Burns. As of last week, I considered Barrow the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the country, and the numbers seem to be bearing that out as this race remains undeclared. Barrow has a small lead of less than 1,000 votes, but with a handful of precincts not reporting yet. Considering that one of the precincts is in the GOP stronghold of Effingham County, there's some reason for concern that Barrow could be unseated. Assuming Barrow holds on, it seems likely that, unlike Marshall, he'd continue to prevail in future elections where he faces softer opposition. Barrow's district is 42% black, 52% Democratic, and voter turnout is likely to be higher in the black community in Presidential election years (there were no competitive races in Georgia this year, suppressing statewide turnout). The irony of these two districts is that Marshall was probably saved by low turnout in Georgia this year, while Barrow was hurt by it.

Idaho--I was skeptical of polls suggesting that Democrats had a chance of winning both the gubernatorial race and the open House race in ID-01. As predicted, the undecideds defaulted to the GOP, even for wingnut Bill Sali in the House race, who won by a comfortable five points despite the fact that it's nearly impossible to find any colleague, even from his own party, that has anything nice to say about him.

Illinois--Astoundingly, corrupt Democratic incumbent Rod Blagojevich pulled off a 10-point re-election victory against Judy Baar Topinka, who passes for the BEST candidate of her party to run statewide. The House races went as predicted with Chamber of Commerce Democrat Melissa Bean hanging on to win a second term by a modest seven-point margin while Iraq War vet and double amputee Tammy Duckworth narrowly lost in Henry Hyde's old district. For what it's worth, I would have gladly traded a Bean defeat for a Duckworth victory, but I'm hoping Duckworth's foray into Democratic politics has not ended with as much as she brings to the table for the party as an injured war veteran and Asian-American female. Ideally, she will return and emerge as a more polished candidate.

Indiana--One of the states least likely to produce a GOP bloodbath this year did just that, unseating three of their seven Republican Congressmen in the state. Joe Donnelly soundly defeated two-term GOP incumbent Chris Chocola in northern Indiana while heavily Republican-tilted districts in southern Indiana opted for conservative Democrat Brad Ellsworth over controversial and ill-prepared incumbent John Hostettler by more than 20 points, and for former Democratic Congressman Baron Hill over one-term incumbent Mike Sodrel, who narrowly defeated Hill in 2004. Hill's three-point victory ended up being the only close race of the three. Democrat Julia Carson, in urban Indianapolis, had a temporary scare with a poll last month showing her trailing, but she prevailed comfortably once again.

Iowa--My adopted home state came through for Democrats big-time last night, with Democrat Chet Culver defeating Jim Nussle by a solid 10-point margin, and handing Culver Democratic majorities in both Houses of the Legislature. Beyond that, Democrats picked up Nussle's old House seat with Bruce Braley easily beating Republican Mike Whalen in the heavily Democratic eastern Iowa district. And in one of the biggest upsets of the year, southeast Iowa's Jim Leach, one of the most liberal and genuinely decent Republicans in Congress, was defeated by political neophyte Dave Loebsack in a very heavily Democratic district in a very heavily Democratic year. Hats off to Leach for 30 years of quality Congressional service and an admirably independent voting record. Geriatric Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell held on by a surprisingly soft six-point margin in central Iowa, meaning his noxious hard-right GOP challenger Jeff Lamberti will be well-positioned to pick up the seat if Boswell retires in two years.

Kansas--Another red state that had a blue year, serving up one of the biggest Congressional upsets of the year with Democrat Nancy Boyda scoring a victory against wingnut Republican incumbent Jim Ryun in a strongly Republican district in eastern Kansas. Beyond that, Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius was handily re-elected. I haven't heard yet whether right-wing thug Phill Kline was unseated from his Attorney General berth in the state, but polls looked optimistic going in, so I'm confident that Democratic challenger Morrison (first name?) drained that swamp.

Kentucky--Democrats thought they pulled off a recruiting coup when they yanked conservative Democrat Ken Lucas out of retirement to challenge one-term Republican Geoff Davis in this uber-Republican district in northeastern Kentucky. But with the hard-right southern suburbs of Cincinnati consuming a larger and larger share of this district's population compared to the Democratic rural mining towns to its east, this just wasn't meant to be for Lucas who lost by six points. On the good news front, perennial target Anne Northup of Louisville was finally taken out by the Democrats, albeit with one of their less impressive challengers in John Yarmouth. Expect a rematch in 2006.

Louisiana--In bayou country, any candidate who gets less than 50% of the vote on election day faces a runoff a month later. Wildly corrupt New Orleans Democrat William Jefferson pulled off only a third of the vote in a crowded field, and faces a runoff at the end of the month. It would terrific to cut out the cancer in our own caucus without handing a seat to Republicans, and Jefferson is right at the top of the list of Democratic scoundrels. Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon easily won a second term in southeast Louisiana sugar cane and wetlands country with a 15-point victory margin.

Maryland--Crisis averted. My nightmare scenario of black Republican Michael Steele upsetting Democrat Ben Cardin for this open seat didn't come to fruition, and there was scant evidence that Steele performed significantly better among black voters than any other Republicans. Cardin won by a decisive 10-point margin. The partisan wave helped Democrat Martin O'Malley unseat Republican incumbent Governor Bob Ehrlich despite Ehrlich's relatively high approval ratings. No evidence of waning Democratic strength in indigo blue Maryland just yet.

Massachusetts--Charismatic Democrat Deval Patrick became only the second black Governor in our nation's history last night, soundly trouncing Republican challenger Kerry Healey and being the first Democratic Governor of our nation's most Democratic state since Michael Dukakis.

Michigan--Only two short months ago, photogenic Democratic incumbent Governor Jennifer Granholm was in deep trouble, but you wouldn't have known it last night as she defeated Republican challenger Dick DeVos by double digits. The Republicans did everything they could to convince people that Republican Senate candidate Michael Bouchard was nipping on the heels of Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, but the bluster didn't materialize as Stabenow won by more than 15 points. A U.S. House race in suburban Detroit was surprisingly close, but Republican incumbent Joseph Knollenberg prevailed in the end.

Minnesota--It was almost a complete bloodbath of the Republican party in Minnesota last night, although Democrat gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch's 11th hour implosion probably cost him the election as he lost to incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty by about 20,000 votes, or less than one percentage point. After Democratic sweeps in both houses of the state Legislature last night, Pawlenty's lame duck status is nonetheless solidified. Beyond that, the Senate seat stayed in Democratic hands with Amy Klobuchar absolutely crushing Republican challenger Mark Kennedy by a 20-point margin. Southern Minnesota's first Congressional district, my old stomping grounds, saw the upset of six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht by Democratic challenger Tim Walz, an outstanding candidate who won by a decisive six-point margin in the Democrat-trending district. Radical right-wing nut Michelle Bachmann somehow managed to beat Democratic challenger Patty Wetterling by a solid eight points, giving her free reign to embarrass Minnesota regularly on the national stage. Still, a small sacrifice for the Democratic gains made everywhere else in the state.

Missouri--The marquee Senate race didn't end up being THE closest race in the country last night, but it was a roller coaster ride nonetheless, with the rural vote being counted first and giving Talent an artificial lead in the vote count before McCaskill surging past him with the final 20% of the vote when Kansas City and St. Louis County came in. Kind of ironic that the much-hyped stem cell initiative that was supposed to boost McCaskill's chances actually passed by the same slim majority that McCaskill won by. Not exactly a mandate. The result of this race was one of many that vindicated the exit poll numbers released yesterday afternoon. Nice to know they get it right once in awhile. And even though I don't agree with him politically, I have to salute Republican Jim Talent for running a relatively clean Senate campaign and giving McCaskill a very serious and intelligent challenge.

Montana--Another nail-biter that ended the right way. After two election cycles where we lost nearly every battleground race, it sure is nice to be on the winning side of close races. On the other hand, it's a pretty sad commentary on Montana that the truly despicable and irrefutably corrupt incumbent Republican Conrad Burns got only 3,000 fewer votes than populist Democratic victor Jon Tester.

Nebraska--I had really hoped that cowboy Democrat Scott Kleeb could pull off an upset in the outrageously Republican NE-03, which went 76% Bush in 2004. As I anticipated, however, Kleeb simply cannot win in this district and ended up losing by a convincing 10 points to lackluster Republican Adrian Smith. Democratic Senator Ben Nelson pulled off a much better than expected victory in his race, however.

Nevada--Seems like we always lose the close ones in Nevada. Neither the Senate or gubernatorial races were particularly close, but Democrat Tessa Hafen got within one point of taking down incumbent Republican Jon Porter in the NV-03, a suburban Las Vegas district trending Democratic. Maybe next time.

New Hampshire--The only remaining Republican stronghold of the northeast was toppled last night as both incumbent Republican Congressmen were turned out in New Hampshire. Democrat Paul Hodes has been getting some good buzz for months now, so his upset of Republican Charles Bass in Democrat-leaning NH-02 wasn't a huge surprise, but Democrat Carol Shea-Porter's upset of GOP incumbent Jeb Bradley in the more conservative district, NH-01, was one of the biggest surprises of the evening. Shea-Porter was not considered a strong candidate, but maybe that worked to our advantage as everybody underestimated her and didn't take her challenge seriously.

New Jersey--The polls broke hard for Democratic quasi-incumbent Bob Menendez late in the race, so Menendez's ultimate decisive victory came as no real surprise. Hopefully, the disappointing candidacy of Tom Kean, Jr. will deter Republicans from running him again in 2008, when Democrat Frank Lautenberg is likely to retire (for the second time). In the state's only competitive House race, Democratic challenger Linda Stender fell one point short of upsetting Republican incumbent Mike Ferguson in NJ-07.

New Mexico--Restoring her reputation as the ultimate political survivor, Albuquerque's Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson appears to have eked out yet another victory against New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, her toughest challenge yet, despite Madrid leading in the polls for the last month. The tally has not been certified yet, but with just a couple of precincts hanging out there, it seems unlikely that Madrid can overcome Wilson's 1,000+ vote advantage. Again, moderates like Wilson have their place in the GOP caucus, so it's nice to see we got our majority without wiping them out entirely.

New York--Democrats were hopeful that the landslide victories imminent for gubernatorial candidate Elliot Spitzer and Senator Hillary Clinton would help shake out as many as six Republican held seats in upstate New York. How did it work? They got the job half done. Democrat John Hall upset Republican incumbent Sue Kelly in NY-19 (kind of ironic that a 70's rocker is now the Congressman in IBM country); in NY-20, attractive Democratic challenger Kristen Gillibrand handily wiped out Republican incumbent John Sweeney (congratulations to Sean on that one); and the open seat vacated by Sherwood Boehlert in central New York's 24th district went handily to Democrat Mike Arcuri (the idiotic phone sex ad had to have helped Arcuri there). The other three seats narrowly tipped Republican, with 51-49 GOP victories for moderate James Walsh of Syracuse in NY-25 and conservative Randy Kuhl held off a challenge by military Democrat Eric Massa in NY-29, the most conservative district in New York. But the stunner of New York for me was that Republican Tom Reynolds of suburban Buffalo held on, winning by five points, despite his prominent role in covering up Mark Foley's scandals. A strange set of results.

North Carolina--Yesterday morning on the SwingStateProject horse race blog, I picked NC-08 as my upset of the year. Democrat Larry Kissell has been running a fantastic stealth campaign against CAFTA flip-flopper GOP incumbent Robin Hayes, and fought him to within a few hundred votes. The race was so close that it hasn't been called yet, but it seems likely that Hayes will narrowly prevail. It's really a shame because we desperately need more populist Democrats in the South, and Kissell certainly fits the bill. On the good news front, conservative Democrat and former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler easily beat embattled Republican incumbent Charles Taylor.

Ohio--The expected Republican bloodbath in Ohio wasn't as severe as many predicted. Sure, Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown took over the Governor's mansion and the GOP-held Senate seat by landslide margins, but only one Republican-held House seat was taken over, far fewer than the four or even five that many suspected. Steve Chabot held on easily in OH-01 ; Jean Schmidt in bright red OH-02 appears likely to get another term in Ohio, even though there hasn't officially been a call yet due to some outstanding absentee ballots; and Deborah Pryce of OH-15 has also apparently held on in a close race with Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy. These results were kind of disappointing, particularly Pryce since she was a ranking member of the GOP leadership and was expected to lose. The only seat that went from red to blue was Bob Ney's old seat where Democrat Zack Space easily trounced Ney's hand-picked successor, Republican Joy Padgett.

Pennsylvania--Here's the state that ended up being what Ohio wasn't, purging four Republican incumbents in the House and smashing incumbent conservative Rick Santorum by an astounding 19-point margin in favor of a milquetoast Democratic challenger in Bob Casey, Jr. The Republican casualties included Melissa Hart of suburban Pittsburgh, whose defeat by Democratic challenger Jason Altmire was seen coming by nobody; one-term Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, who barely lost his district in the northern Philadelphia suburbs to Iraq war veteran Democrat Patrick Murphy, and just conceded this afternoon; and two scandal-plagued GOP incumbents, Don Sherwood and Curt Weldon, who were both trounced handily in their respective districts. The lone survivor: Jim "Mr. 51%" Gerlach, long considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country who won his THIRD election by a 51-49 margin in the western Philadelphia suburbs. He's the political equivalent of Harry Houdini, and at this point highly worthy of our respect.

Rhode Island--A moderate Republican who was not as lucky as Gerlach was Lincoln Chafee, popular in left-wing Rhode Island despite his being a Republican, who couldn't withstand the desire by RI voters to hand the Senate to the Democrats this year. Even though I was pulling for Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse this year, I salute Lincoln Chafee for his years of worthy representation and having the guts to stand up to his party's right flank. Best of luck, Linc.

South Dakota--Thankfully, the draconian abortion ban which would have forbidden SD abortions even in cases of rape or incest, failed, perhaps signaling that even the reddest of states are not as scary conservative as the Republican Party platform may indicate.

Tennessee--Harold Ford, Jr. staged an 11th hour rally after losing his momentum in the final two weeks of the campaign and falling way behind multi-millionaire gadfly and indictment-in-waiting Bob Corker. Unfortunately, Ford fell short by three percentage points, discovering as Al Gore did in the "new Tennessee" that a Democrat running in ideal circumstances can get up to 48%, but probably not to the 50% he/she needs. Outstanding effort on Ford's part though and I hope we see more of this guy in Tennessee politics in the near future. Thankfully, Ford's brother Jake, running as an independent in Harold's old Memphis district, pulled in only 18%, allowing progressive Democrat Steve Cohen to pull off a safe majority, despite being a white man in majority-black Memphis.

Texas--As expected, noxious Republican Governor Rick Perry was elected to another term with a 39% plurality. Democrat Chris Bell overperformed expectations at 30%, but lost too many votes to third and fourth-party candidates Kinky Friedman and Carole Strayhorn. In the House races, Democrat Chet Edwards hung on for another two years, while Democrat Nick Lampson beat write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs by 10 points in Tom DeLay's old district. Good news for now, but this is gonna be a brutally difficult district to hang onto in 2008. The other complicated race is in TX-23 where a summer court ruling forced a redistricting, leaving Hispanic Republican Henry Bonilla to run in a less Republican district along the Mexican border. A crowded field of Democrats held Bonilla to less than 50%, forcing a runoff between Bonilla and former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez. I'm not optimistic about Rodriguez's chances, but am looking forward to the prospect of picking off another Republican nonetheless.

Vermont--Republicans were bullish about moderate military Republican Martha Rainville's chances to pick off an open seat for the GOP in deep-blue Vermont, but it wasn't meant to be. She got trounced by Democrat Peter Welch. In the Senate race, Socialist Bernie Sanders was the winner. He will caucus with Democrats.

Virginia--Clearly, the marquee race here was the Jim Webb-George Allen Senate race. The early returns looked very favorable for Webb as he was performing comparably to Democrat Tim Kaine in last year's Virginia gubernatorial race, but it became clear that Webb was not getting the numbers he needed to in Tidewater and southwestern Virginia. I had all but given up on Webb until I started noticing that exurban Prince William and Loudoun Counties in northern Virginia were leaning Webb, and at the very end of the count, some urban precincts came in to push Webb over the top. What an exciting race....and a fitting finale for George Allen's career (Allen is clearly the biggest loser of the 2006 election cycle). Unfortunately, Republican Thelma Drake held off a strong challenge by Democrat Phil Kellam in her Virginia Beach-area Congressional district.

Washington--Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell predictably crushed Republican challenger Mike McGavick. The House races went as expected save for WA-08 in the eastern suburbs of Seattle where there is yet to be a call in the Burner-Reichert race and may not be for a couple of days since Washington has a vote-by-mail option and not all ballots have arrived yet. Right now, Reichert leads 51-49, which doesn't seem insurmountable for Burner.

West Virginia--Robert Byrd gets re-elected for the ninth time in the U.S. Senate, which embattled (and likely corrupt) Democratic incumbent Alan Mollohan easily holds on for another term.

Wisconsin--Democratic Governor Jim Doyle won by a second term by a surprisingly strong eight-point victory, paving the way for Democrat Steve Kagen to win an open seat held by a Republican in the GOP-leaning Green Bay area.

Wyoming--The coattails of popular re-elected Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal couldn't save Congressional candidate Gary Trauner from narrowly losing (by less than one percentage point) to unspeakably awful Republican incumbent Barbara Cubin. It's always much better to talk about actual victories than "moral victories", but to come within a few hundred votes of picking off a Republican incumbent in 70% pro-GOP Wyoming certainly does qualify as a "moral victory".


Again, it was an outstanding night for the Democratic party, and I'll be savoring the victories for weeks until the process of actual governance makes the whole process alot less fun. As I eluded to before, it's nice to have gotten the majority while not completely decimating the ranks of moderate Republicans in the Congressional GOP. With Chris Shays and Heather Wilson still in the fold, it'll be a little easier for the Democratic majority to reach out to the other side than if their caucus was made up exclusively of Southern theocratic bomb throwers. With all this said, the Democrats have challenging times ahead and I'll be very interested to see how or if they can make this work, particularly with a more "coalition party" made up of more conservative candidates like Jim Webb in the Senate, and Heath Shuler and Brad Ellsworth in the House. I'm hoping they don't destroy themselves by pressing forward with the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill. If they do, they'll undo their majority as fast as it was created. But that's in the future. Today, let's just enjoy that rare taste of victory.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Early Exit Polls Look Great for Donks

Some leaked exit polls for battleground Senate races were released in the past hour. They look fantastic for Democrats, and go as follows:

Virginia (52-47 Webb)
Rhode Island (53-46 Whitehouse)
Pennsylvania (57-42 Casey)
Ohio (57-43 Brown)
New Jersey (52-45 Menendez)
Montana (53-46 Tester)
Missouri (50-48 McCaskill)
Maryland (53-46 Cardin)

The only bad news isn't even as bad as predicted:

Tennessee (51-48 Corker)
Arizona (50-46 Kyl)

But let's not get cocky too early. We did in 2004 when these same exit polls showed John Kerry winning in a walk only to be proven disastrously wrong a few hours later. Exit polls tend of oversample urban area and wildly undersample conservative rural areas. If that holds true this time, McCaskill's scant advantage in Missouri could be the most tenuous. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic heading into the 7 p.m. hour (eastern time) when we should have a much better idea how the winds are blowing.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Final Thoughts Regarding GOTV

It's all over but the voting at this point (and for millions of Americans, the voting's already over!). The last-minute campaign rallies are in their final throes and the fate of dozens of candidates in competitive races across the country has been entrusted in the hands of voters. The winners will be whichever candidate is best able to get their base out and convince the majority of independents to their side. With that in mind, how does GOTV help or hurt the good guys in their respective Senate races? Let's take a look.....

Connecticut--Lieberman's commanding lead is unlikely to hold up in the polls because he has no firm organizational ground game. A number of Republicans are probably quietly carrying water for him, but it's not an organized effort. Furthermore, Lieberman's name will appear near the bottom of a crowded ballot, underneath several fringe candidates who will likely far less than 1% of the vote. The hope that Schlesinger would pull in enough conservatives with his red-meat Republican message seems unlikely to come to fruition at this point, but I still see some narrowing in the final tally between Lieberman and Lamont. Lieberman will ultimately get a comfortable win though, which I wouldn't have anticipated in August after his primary defeat.

Maryland--Since Maryland has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, neither party has a very strong GOTV operation in the state, meaning voter turnout expectations are anybody's guess here.

Missouri--There's no question that the Republicans have a superior ground game in Missouri, and some of the reports out of McCaskill's GOTV operation are troubling. With that said, Missouri Republicans have yet to publicly flex their ground game's muscle, and in fact, significantly underperformed expectations against Jean Carnahan in both 2000 and 2002, the latter of which was a contest against Jim Talent and which Republicans thought they would win in a walk heading into Election Day. Even in 2004, George Bush and Governor Matt Blunt scored victories in Missouri, but neither exceeded the expectations of the final polls. Assuming McCaskill is able to get independent voters to the polls in sufficient enough numbers, a victory by her is not out of the question no matter how many GOP foot soldiers are deployed to save Talent.

Montana--At a ground game level, Republicans have full control of rural Montana. On the other hand, reports suggest that early voting is favoring Tester by massive margins, which means some of the hard-core Democratic partisans will be available tomorrow to rally the troops in strongholds like the college town of Missoula and the mining town of Butte. Put it's probably a safe bet that far more people will be voting for Conrad Burns TOMORROW than Jon Tester. The only question is are there enough of them to offset Tester's huge margin in early voting.

Ohio--Even though it looks like Sherrod Brown has this one in the bag, the GOP clearly gets their base out in Ohio as evidenced by the 2004 Presidential election. I hope the Dems aren't asleep at wheel, because recent polls show the race is tightening slightly.

Rhode Island--This one's really getting scary. Bob Novak cited internal polling in the Whitehouse campaign verifying Chafee's lead while pointy-headed pundits on MSNBC suggested tonight that RI may actually be a bigger battleground than Missouri at this point. Regardless of ground game, if independent voters in indigo blue Rhode Island can't comprehend what's at stake here and plan to enable Chafee to keep the Senate in GOP hands, the Dems are in deep trouble tomorrow.

Virginia--Rumor has it that since Virginia has just emerged as a swing state in the last couple of years, the Republicans don't have a very good ground game in the state. Unfortunately, Democrats don't either, and Webb's victory hinges upon high turnout among new voters in the northern Virginia suburbs. That could be a tall order in a midterm year, but I'm modestly optimistic here with the momentum clearly on Webb's side.

With some better-looking generic ballot advantages for Democrats today (+13 in Fox, +20 in CNN), I'm feeling a little better than I did last night. On the other hand, omnipresent rumors of Rhode Island slipping away from us are deeply troubling. I'll try to get a good night's sleep tonight because I'll need it for tomorrow, and I recommend others do the same.

Sunday, November 05, 2006

GOP Surges to the Finish Line

As predicted, the Republicans are closing strong in the final hours, and suddenly my conservative Senate projections from earlier this month seem pretty likely to be accurate. It would seem that the worries of this blog's readers have reason to be concerned, particularly in the Senate.

It's always brutally difficult to guess how elections are gonna play out with a groundswell of inconsistent data and numerous headfakes orchestrated by both parties. I still believe the Democrats will win the House of Representatives even if the wind at their backs diminishes to a gentle breeze.

I'll say this about Mason-Dixon polls. They usually tilt Republican, and have artificially high numbers of undecideds that most other polls manage to put in one candidate's column or the other. In Minnesota, the Mason-Dixon poll is sponsored by the St. Paul Pioneer Press newspaper and they have always overstated GOP strength. In 2002, they predicted Coleman would beat Mondale by 5 on the Sunday before the election. Coleman won by 2. In 2004, they predicted George Bush would win by 1. John Kerry won by 3. With that in mind, I suspect some of the Mason-Dixon state polls in other states are also outliers. Chafee is not ahead in Rhode Island. The other polls are all reasonably believable, but seem to be a little more pessimistic than everybody else's polls, and all with significant numbers of undecideds that can typically be expected to trend to the challenger rather than the incumbent party (good news everywhere but Maryland).


The only race I didn't expect to be worrying about when I made my Senate predictions that I now am is Montana, where I definitley didn't see a Conrad Burns insurgency coming. Tester's trajectory is comparable to Max Cleland's 11th hour meltdown in 2002, but I'm not quite as pessimistic here for a number of reasons. Daily Kos indicates that Tester has a 21-point lead in early voting tallies, which are quite significant in numbers (as in nearly 20% of the overall vote), and Burns is still narrowly behind in every poll except this Mason-Dixon poll, below 50% in all of them. I'm losing faith in Tester's chances rather fast, but with predicting reputation on the line, I'm inclined to continue giving him the benefit of the doubt.

It's also hard to read whether the verdict in Saddam's trial will have any effect on the election. Considering the virtually everybody realizes this verdict will be appealed, is likely to inflame further sectarian violence, and won't get us any closer to getting out of Iraq than we were on Saturday, I'd say it's a wash. I put too much stock on the effect the bin Laden video would have on the 2004 outcome. I don't think it had much sway, and my gut says the Saddam verdict won't either.

As for today's ABC News/Washington Post poll suggesting the Dems generic ballot advantage shrunk from 14 points to 6 points in two weeks, their sample was disproportionately Republican according to Stu Rothenberg on "Face the Nation" this morning, making it a wash because the major media polls (Newsweek, CBS, AOL/AP) showing generic Democratic advantages of 15-20 points are disproportionately Democratic. The reality is likely to be somewhere between the two, but in all honestly, closer to the six-point margin than the 15-20 point margins.


I never put much faith in the media narratives about sweeping Democratic gains in the House and a Dem takeover of the Senate. The late-breaking momentum for the GOP is no surprise at all for me, but the bad news is that expectations have been raised so high at this point that the final outcome will now likely be spun as a Democratic defeat if the Dems win less than 30 House seats and fail to take back the Senate. Not that it'll stop the storyline manufacturers from similar irrational exuberance next time.

Thursday, November 02, 2006

October's GOP Asshat of the Month....and an Amendment to My Senate Predictions

With the flurry of election season and a full plate at work, I forgot about my monthly GOP Asshat of the Month coronation ceremony. Without much fanfare, I'll give this month's crown to Rush Limbaugh, whose outrageous accusations of Michael J. Fox faking his Parkinson's symptoms sucked the oxygen out of what could have a successful Republican counterattack against an over-the-top campaign ad featuring Fox, where he implied that Republican candidate Jim Talent was gonna let him die because based on Talent's opposition to federally-funded embryonic stem cell research. The would-be crisis was averted, thanks to Limbaugh who vastly trumped Fox's ad in the below-the-belt department.

I actually have two amendments to my Senate predictions from mid-October. I was a skeptic until the end, but I have now seen enough information to conclude that Democrat Sherrod Brown will defeat incumbent Republican Mike DeWine in Ohio. However, I predict Brown's victory will be a zero-sum game because I now expect Republican Michael Steele to score the upset of the night against Ben Cardin in Maryland. I held onto my prediction for Cardin until Monday, when more than half of the black members of the Prince George's County board (Steele's home county) endorsed Steele. Polls released today showed Cardin holding onto a modest lead, but I'm expecting a large number of black voters to switch allegiances in the clutch, ultimately choosing race over party.

I'm nervous about Jon Tester's ever-shrinking lead in Montana, but I expect he'll hang on. I stand by all of my House predictions from mid-October, even though I'm really skeptical about whether John Barrow will hang on in GA-12. I also stand by gubernatorial predictions, but have doubts about my guesses in Minnesota, Iowa, and Maryland.