Early Predictions for 2006 Senate Races

One-third of the United States Senate will be seeking re-election this November, and the races are congealing pretty well by now with the filing deadline approaching for several states. The current Senate alignment is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 1 independent who votes with Democrats. With that in mind, the Dems need to take six GOP-held seats to win back the Senate. Here are my thoughts on how these contests will unfold 10 months from now. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind right up to the bitter end.

Arizona--Incumbent Republican Jon Kyl is facing a strong challenge from Arizona Democratic Party Chair and multi-millionaire businessman Jim Pederson this fall. Pederson will finance his own campaign, which will prove to be a logistical equalizer against Kyl. Democrats are cautiously optimistic about Pederson's prospects, but I find it very hard to believe that Kyl is beatable. For one thing, iconic demigod John McCain (AZ's Senior Senator) will be joined at the hip with Kyl at every opportunity if this race becomes competitive. For another, the number one issue in Arizona is immigration, and most of those concerned with immigration favor Kyl's hard-line position. Lastly, Arizona remains a significantly Republican state. It would take a political tsunami favoring the Democrats for Kyl to be taken down. My odds: 3-1 Kyl. GOP hold.

California--Incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein doesn't have any organized opposition at this point. I'm sure she'll face a token challenge, but is almost certain to win, most likely with more votes than any other Senate candidate has ever gotten (beating Barbara Boxer's record last year of 6.9 million votes). My odds: 100-1 Feinstein. Dem hold.

Connecticut--Democrat-In-Name-Only Joe Lieberman is almost certain to win, most likely with more support from self-identified Republicans than from Democrats. Unless Bush appoints him to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense, as has been mentioned but now seems like a remote possibility, Lieberman will likely take 70% of the vote. My odds: 250-1 Lieberman. Dem hold.

Delaware--One-term centrist Democrat Thomas Carper is one of those quietly popular Senators who nobody has heard of nationally but is loved at home. As far as I know, Carper has no competition at this point, and even if he does face token opposition, will win handily. My odds: 100-1 Carper. Dem hold.

Florida--Potentially complicated race. Otherwise vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson is far from wildly popular, but appears poised to face Congresswoman Katherine Harris (yes, THAT Katherine Harris) in November. Harris is running an absolutely awful campaign thus far, desperately deficient in fundraising numbers, and is trailing by more than 20 points in preliminary polls. Nelson's only concern is that the GOP may play the switcheroo before the filing deadline, replacing the hapless Harris with West Palm Beach-area Congressman Mark Foley, who would most likely pose a much stiffer challenge to Nelson. If Foley ends up running, this race will become a toss-up, but for now, I give Nelson 4-1 odds against Harris. Dem hold.

Hawaii--Geriatric JUNIOR Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka is a shoo-in for another term....as long as he doesn't die first! Odds: 100-1 Akaka. Dem hold.

Indiana--Republican stalwart Richard Lugar faces an almost certain re-election now that Democrat Tim Roemer has chosen not to run....not that Roemer would've beaten him either. Odds: 250-1 Lugar. GOP hold.

Maine--Liberal Republican Olympia Snowe has the highest approval rating of any Senator in the nation. She'll probably do as well among Democrats as she will with members of her own party. Snowe will probably win by a 2-1 margin against whichever sacrificial lamb the Dems decide to run against her. Odds: 100-1 Snowe. GOP hold.

Maryland--With the retirement of Democrat Paul Sarbanes, we have our first open seat of 2006. Two prominent Democrats are running in the primary to replace Sarbanes. Baltimore Congressman Benjamin Cardin is the frontrunner, but former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume could pull off an upset given the large number of blacks likely to participate in a Democratic primary in Maryland. On the Republican side, African-American Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele has the potential to peel off some black voters, particularly if he's challenged by the white Cardin, but his rock-solid conservative positions are unlikely to win over Democratic Marylanders in the current political climate. Cardin would have a significant advantage over Steele with his ties to swing areas in the Baltimore suburbs, but the controversial Mfume would likely push white, suburban voters to Steele and make this race a real contest. Still, I'm going under the premise that it will be a Cardin-Steele matchup, in which case the odds would be 2-1 favoring Cardin. Dem hold.

Massachusetts--Unless Ted Kennedy kills another woman, he's a lock for an eighth term (!). Odds: 500-1 Kennedy. Dem hold.

Michigan--One-term Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow might be vulnerable, but her opposition on the GOP side is weak to put it mildly. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard would probably give her the toughest challenge, but would still most likely lose by a double-digit margin. The nomination is likely to either go to Bouchard or conservative African-American reverend Keith Butler, who would be slaughtered by Stabenow. Odds: 4-1 Stabenow. Dem hold.

Minnesota--This open seat, vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton, is poised to be a classic Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota contest. Suburban Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy will face either Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar or child safety advocate Patty Wetterling. Klobuchar is favored and would most likely be the stronger candidate against Kennedy. Klobuchar's professional connection to Hennepin County and personal connection to the Iron Range gives her a solid head start, but Kennedy's Congressional representation of most of the state's suburban and exurban counties along with the state's rural, agricultural southwest quadrant gives him a solid head start of his own. At this point, Kennedy looks like a better candidate on paper than he has turned out to be, however. His sleazy and vicious Congressional campaign against Patty Wetterling last year probably suppressed his '04 margin and appears to have raised his unfavorable ratings statewide. Couple that with Kennedy's reputation as a Bush administration puppet and it becomes harder to believe Minnesotans will choose to send a second rubber stamp for Bush to the U.S. Senate. If Wetterling ends up being Kennedy's opponent, then this race will be a toss-up, but if conventional wisdom prevails and Klobuchar wins the nomination, I give her odds to win in November. Odds: 3-2 Klobuchar. Dem hold.

Mississippi--Trent Lott is playing coy about his re-election plans, making Washington Republicans nervous. Lott is the most popular politician in Mississippi and will win handily if he runs, but if he doesn't, the second most popular politician in Mississippi is former Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore. Republicans fear that Lott's likely GOP replacement, Congressman Chip Pickering, would lose to Moore if it came to that. Personally, I don't believe any Democrat could win a Senate election in Mississippi in the current political climate, even Moore. Furthermore, I think Lott will decide to run again and make it a moot point. Assuming Lott runs, the odds are 500-1 Lott. GOP hold.

Missouri--The Republicans have been winning everything in Missouri in the past few election cycles, but there seems to be a backlash against one-party government right now with anemic approval ratings for George Bush and MO Governor Matt Blunt. A surprise casualty of that backlash appears to be GOP incumbent Senator Jim Talent, who is narrowly trailing Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill in early polls. McCaskill narrowly lost the Governor's race last year to Blunt, whose unpopularity seems to be benefitting McCaskill in classic "buyers' remorse" fashion. There are also some complicated issues regarding a stem cell initiative on the Missouri ballot next year which Talent is waffling over. His incomprehensible position will probably hurt him among his right-wing base, making him even more vulnerable. This should be a very close race, but I'm giving the early advantage to McCaskill. Odds: 51-49 McCaskill. Dem gain (+1 Dems).

Montana--Republican Conrad Burns has never been that popular in Montana, winning his second term by a weak two percentage points in 2000 even as George Bush was beating Al Gore by 25 points in the state. This year, he goes into the race stigmatized by the smoldering Jack Abramoff scandal, which has already cut his approval rating down to 42% in the past month. Assuming Burns is implicated in the Abramoff scandal as is predicted, I find it hard to believe he holds his seat. In fact, it might be wise for the GOP to field another candidate before the filing deadline passes. Two prominent Democrats are challenging Burns. State Auditor John Morrison is suspected to be the front-runner, but populist State Senate President Jon Tester could score an upset. At this point, I'd say either of them would defeat the embattled Burns. Unless his ties to Abramoff prove weaker than originally suspected, I say Burns is outta there. Odds: 5-4 in favor of Morrison or Tester. Dem gain (+2 Dems).

Nebraska--Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson has already dodged two major bullets in his quest for a second term. Former Governor Mike Johanns, considered Nelson's most likely challenger two years ago, was appointed to be George Bush's Secretary of Agriculture in 2004. Then, current Congressman and former Nebraska Cornhuskers Head Coach Tom Osborn decided to run for Governor in '06 rather than challenge Nelson. Both men would have probably beaten Nelson in this cranberry-red state, but their decision not to challenge him has left Nelson looking fairly safe, at least for the time being. Even with a 63% approval rating, Nelson's re-election is by no means a slam-dunk even against a token Republican opponent. After all, Nelson blew a 20-point lead and lost to Chuck Hagel in 1996 and barely hung on against a nobody challenging him in 2000. As long as Nelson has that (D) next to his name, he's vulnerable in Nebraska. At this point, however, his prospects appear brighter than they did 18 months ago. Odds: 3-2 Nelson. Dem hold.

Nevada--Republican incumbent John Ensign could conceivably be vulnerable, but the odds are probably against his defeat. The current Democratic challenger in Jack Carter, son of former President Jimmy Carter. However, there is a push to get popular Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman to run. If he runs, we probably have a contest on our hands. Ensign ran his 2000 campaign promising to persuade other Senate Republicans to veto efforts to use Nevada's Yucca Mountain as the nuclear waste dump for the country. Ensign failed, giving Nevadans little reason to long for an encore. Still, Ensign has enough support to where I believe he hangs on, particularly if Goodman decides not to get in the race. Odds: 2-1 Ensign. GOP hold.

New Jersey--Senator Jon Corzine was just elected Governor of New Jersey and got to appoint his own successor. He picked Congressman Bob Menendez, who certainly could be beatable going into the November's midterms where he faces his first official Senate election. Tom Kean, Jr., a player in the New Jersey Senate and son of former Republican Governor Tom Kean could prove to be a formidable moderate Republican challenger for Menendez. Nonetheless, Republicans are on a LONG losing streak in New Jersey and I don't suspect Kean will be the guy to break that losing streak, particularly with Bush's bottom-feeding popularity in the state. I simply can't see New Jerseyans providing the wildly unpopular Republican President with cover in the form of a GOP Senate ally this fall. Nonetheless, a weak Menendez campaign or a serious charisma gap could produce an upset. Odds: 3-2 Menendez. Dem hold.

New Mexico--Long-time Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman seems highly unlikely to be defeated. I don't think he has any organized GOP opposition yet. Odds: 25-1 Bingaman. Dem hold.

New York--Hillary Clinton is gonna win. No surprise there. Westchester District Attorney Jeanne Pirro's challenge got off to such a miserable start that she dropped out of the race before Christmas, leaving Hillary no serious opposition heading into 2006. Richard Nixon's son-in-law is rumored to be mulling a run on the GOP side, but it seems very unlikely to be successful. As a partisan Democrat who sees a Hillary Presidential candidate in 2008 as a sure loser, I've been hoping a serious Republican challenge would emerge and hold her to under 55%, thus weakening her to the point that she decides against running for President. Unless Rudy Guiliani decides to run, and there's no indication he has plans to do so, it doesn't look as though my wish for Hillary meeting a brick wall will come to fruition. Odds: 100-1 Hillary. Dem hold.

North Dakota--Some of the nation's most unpredictable voters come from North Dakota. ND is consistently one of the most Republican states in Presidential elections and in statewide elections, yet they continue to elect card-carrying liberals to represent them in Congress. Democrat Kent Conrad is the elder of the state's all-Democratic Congressional delegation and is comfortably poised to win another term this fall. Nonetheless, Conrad had a few nervous months earlier this year when the Republicans were trying to recruit popular GOP Governor John Hoeven to challenge him. But as has been the case repeatedly, RNSC Chairperson Elizabeth Dole failed to seal the deal with Hoeven, who chose to stick around the North Dakota statehouse. Hoeven would have given Conrad a helluva run, but without him on the ballot, Conrad should skate into another term against a weak GOP sacrificial lamb. Odds: 25-1 Conrad. Dem hold.

Ohio--This will be one of the most hotly-contested races in the nation this fall. Republican incumbent Mike DeWine is proving to be very vulnerable, a victim of the internal meltdown of the Ohio Republican Party and the sagging economy of his state. His approval ratings are well below 50% and he's facing two strong challengers on the Democratic side of the aisle. Iraq war veteran and lawyer Paul Hackett narrowly lost a special election last year in an extremely Republican district in suburban Cincinnati. The charismatic Hackett's stock is on the rise and his proven appeal to conservatives in Southern Ohio make him a huge threat to DeWine if he's able to get past the primary. The insider candidate challenging Hackett is Congressman Sherrod Brown from northeastern Ohio, who has broader name recognition and a favorable voting record for Democrats, but who could more easily be demagogued as a "northeastern Ohio liberal" in the general election. Hackett, on the other hand, has a tendency to make shrill and bombastic statements that, if not tempered, could produce a campaign-killing Howard Dean-esque "Yeeeaghhh!" moment. Brown and Hackett both seem capable of beating DeWine, but Hackett's the kind of gamble that could either yield tremendous dividends or be looked back at as a huge mistake. Brown is the same bet, and perhaps a slight favorite, but the kind of guy more likely to lose by a 51-49 margin just like John Kerry did in 2004. Nonetheless, I think the anti-GOP momentum will get one of these guys elected this fall. Odds: 51-49 Dems. Dem gain (+3 Dems).

Pennsylvania--Last year at this time, disillusioned Democrats looked at the bleak list of 2006 Senate contests expecting another defensive year with few opportunities for gains. One of their few prospects for gains looked to be in Pennsylvania, where arch-conservative two-term incumbent Rick Santorum was expected to be vulnerable after a number of wingnut comments he had recently made. More than a dozen polls confirm their suspicions that Santorum is vulnerable to Democratic challenger Bob Casey. Not only is Santorum vulnerable, he's in deep trouble. The most optimistic polls are showing him trailing Casey by nine points. On average, Santorum is facing a deficit of about 12 points. I expect that as the campaign heats up, Santorum will close the gap, but he still seems poised for a rather sound defeat and is easily the Dems' safest bet for picking up a seat. Odds: 2-1 Casey. Dem gain. (+4 Dems)

Rhode Island--Lincoln Chafee is the most liberal Republican in Congress. He publicly opposes the Bush administration and informed the media that he did not even vote for Bush in the 2004 election. Indeed, Chafee cites his only reason for staying in the Republican Party is that his father (former RI Senator John Chafee) would roll over in his grave if his son switched parties. This has made Lincoln vulnerable from two sides in 2006. He's facing a primary challenge from a "real Republican," Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, that could easily put the brakes on his efforts to maintain his seat. And if Chafee survives the primary, he still faces a general election challenge in the most Democratic state of the union. Ordinarily, Rhode Islanders would be likely to give the liberal Chafee a pass, but George Bush is about as popular as diarrhea in the state and the desire to reduce Bush's Congressional majorities may end up being a motivator to replace Chafee with a sure-fire friendly next year (there's a primary on the Dem side as well). I can't see Chafee's fence-straddling ways surviving two fierce challenges, so I'm guessing he loses in either the primary or the general. Either way, the Dems should be able to win back this seat. Odds: 3-2 Dems. Dem gain. (+5 Dems)

Tennessee--Republican Bill Frist is retiring after two terms, leaving this seat open and giving the Democrats a prospect for picking up a Southern Senate seat. The Democratic candidate is Memphis Congressman Harold Ford, an affable and youthful African-American who has established a centrist voting record which he believes has positioned him well for a Senate run in this increasingly conservative state. Personally, I can't see it happening. In the 140 years following the Civil War, exactly one black candidate has been elected statewide in the South (former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder). Stealth racism seems very likely to suppress Ford's margin, along with a number of other factors. Ford is from a deep-rooted Memphis political family, half of whom are currently under indictment. Furthermore, Ford has it bass-ackwards with his centrism. Democrats win in Tennessee by being economically populist and socially conservative. Ford's profile is the opposite. Opposition is stiff and plentiful, including former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, along with millionaire Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Harold Ford might be a good candidate in a number of states, but I don't think Tennessee is one of them. I suspect that whichever of the Republican challengers wins the primary will beat him in the general election, despite optimistic early polls. Ford will need to pitch the political equivalent of a perfect game to prevail here, and I don't think he's capable of that. Odds: 3-1 Republicans. GOP hold.

Utah--One of the least controversial calls I'm making here.....Republican Orrin Hatch will easily win another term. Odds: 1,000-1 Hatch. GOP hold.

Vermont--Democrat-caucusing Independent Jim Jeffords is retiring, and rather surprisingly, his seat looks poised to go to another Democrat-caucusing Independent, current Vermont House representative Bernie Sanders. Sanders is officially a Socialist and will easily be the Senate's most progressive voice when elected, which is extremely likely given his iconic profile in Vermont. Odds: 10-1 Sanders. Ind. hold.

Virginia--It doesn't seem likely that Presidential hopeful George Allen will be defeated next year, particularly after the Dems couldn't convince recent VA Governor and fellow Presidential hopeful Mark Warner to challenge him. At this stage, Allen could face a modest challenge from military lawyer James Webb, but so far just has a token opponent named Harris Miller. Another name being floated around as a potential challenger is actor/activist Ben Affleck, which would bring about a stinging defeat in Virginia and probably hurt Democrats nationwide. Thankfully, that's unlikely to happen. Odds: 10-1 Allen. GOP hold.

Washington--One-term incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell could possibly be vulnerable, but at this stage she looks safer than what was expected a year ago. Cantwell dodged a bullet when Dino Rossi, the loser of last year's razor-thin Washington gubernatorial race, decided not to challenge her. Rossi has a great deal of sympathy because of the perception that the election was stolen from him and would have posed a serious challenge to Cantwell. Some resentment lingers towards Washington Democrats over the dubious election outcome, but it appears that resentment towards George Bush is trumping it, at least at the Federal level. Cantwell will nonetheless face a modest challenge from State Republican Chair and self-financing millionaire Mike McGavick. Early polls show a solid lead for Cantwell, but it's not inconceivable that McGavick could score an upset here. Odds: 3-1 Cantwell. Dem hold.

West Virginia--Eight-term incumbent Democrat Robert Byrd is running for a ninth term. A strong challenge was expected from Charleston Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito but again, Liddy Dole couldn't seal the deal and Capito opted out. Without Capito in the race, the conventional wisdom is that Byrd is a shoo-in for re-election. I'm not convinced. Byrd has moved decidedly left even as his state has moved sharply right. Furthermore, Byrd is prone to saying controversial and arrogant things, which I'm not certain if West Virginians will be as willing to forgive now that he's going separate ways from them ideologically. And lest we forget....Byrd is 87 years old. The 10 months between now and the election is an eternity for a man of Byrd's age. A stroke or a heart attack puts him out of commission and this race is immediately advantage GOP. Luckily for Byrd, he's likely to face a weak opponent in Hiram Lewis whose campaign will need a huge stumble (literal or figurative) by Byrd for him to get out of the starting gate. I'm predicting Byrd prevails here, but by a softer margin that anyone currently expects. Odds: 5-4 Byrd. Dem hold.

Wisconsin--Centrist Democrat Herb Kohl looks poised to score another comfortable victory, despite his low-profile in the Senate. The only caveat is if the Republicans are able to convince former Wisconsin Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson to get into the race, which seems unlikely at this point. Facing anybody else, Kohl will win. Odds: 25-1 Kohl. Dem hold.

Wyoming--Incumbent Republican Craig Thomas will easily win re-election, as would anyone with an (R) next to their name running in Wyoming. Odds: 250-1 Thomas. GOP hold.

So there you have it. My prediction is that the Dems gain five seats this fall, one short of what they need for a majority. The margin next year at this time will be 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and one independent caucusing with the Dems. This is an optimistic prediction from the Democratic standpoint, but not out of line with the current reality. The Dems will have to pull off a huge upset in either Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee or Mississippi to pick up the elusive sixth seat they need for a majority. I don't see it happening, but anything's possible given the Republican Party meltdown, which could intensify this year due to the Jack Abramoff scandal. On the other hand, one cannot underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to blow a sure thing.

Stay tuned for future Senate race updates as 2006 proceeds. In the coming weeks, I'll make predictions on Governor races and a less detailed look at competitive races in the House of Representatives.