Minnesota Statewide Offices Could All Go Republican
The preliminary consensus is that this fall's elections will produce a favorable outcome for the Democratic Party. Early indicators suggest this is also likely to be true for the DFL in my home state of Minnesota. The party has an odds-on chance of holding its U.S. Senate seat despite a retiring incumbent, has an excellent chance of expanding its majority in the State Senate and winning back the State House, and even has a decent chance of winning back the Governor's mansion, although I'm skeptical about Hatch's prospects against Pawlenty. That leaves us with the three statewide offices also up this November, including the Secretary of State, Auditor, and Attorney General. Regretfully, I'm anticipating a GOP sweep of these offices in 2006 based on a number of criteria cutting against the DFL even in a perceived Democratic year.
The aforementioned races are typically not marquee contests and most voters seem to approach them knowing little about the respective candidates, and thus end up basing their vote on superficial criteria. It would seem that in a Democratic year, that would cut in the DFL's favor, but here are the reasons I'm doubtful this time.....
1) The power of incumbency. GOP Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer is a two-term incumbent while GOP Auditor Pat Anderson (formerly Awada) is a one-term incumbent. Both are intensely partisan and have a couple of mini-scandals surrounding their offices as a result, but very few voters will know of those scandals. The one thing they are likely to know is the name of the incumbent, particularly in the case of Kiffmeyer, and most will vote with the familiar name.
2) Surname ethnicity. I already cited superficial criteria being prime dealmakers and dealbreakers in these low-profile constitutional office elections. One of the most frequent of these superficial criteria is voters pulling the lever for candidates whose last name is closest to their own ethnic heritage. Regardless of party, the candidates who seem to do best have simple, Scandinavian last names. Candidates who perform weakest have strange or ethnically dubious last names. Suffice it to say I'd rather be running for Auditor or Attorney General under the surname Anderson or Johnson, as two of the GOP candidates are, rather than Ritchie or Entenza, as two of the DFL candidates are.
3) Favorable geography. Each of the three Republican candidates for these constitutional offices comes from a geographically valuable region. Kiffmeyer was raised in the small town of Pierz in central Minnesota and currently lives in the fast-growing St. Cloud exurb of Big Lake. In her previous two elections, she has reined in supersized margins in the entire St. Cloud/central Minnesota region and it has helped her win both times. Auditor Pat Anderson was formerly the Mayor of Eagan in the metro area's southern suburbs. She beat her DFL opponent by less than 15,000 votes in 2002 based almost entirely on her enormous strength in the southern suburbs, where other Republicans on the ballot scored more modest margins of victory that year. And Republican Attorney General candidate Jeff Johnson is a popular legislator from the second-ring suburb of Plymouth. His name recognition in the western suburbs could easily help him avoid the erosion of support that Republicans have faced there in some recent election cycles, thus improving his margin of victory.
By contrast, I'm not sure of the geographic origins of DFL Secretary of State candidate Mark Ritchie. Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza is a more familiar name being the leader of the minority party in the state House, but coming from the city of St. Paul doesn't exactly provide him with a foothold on swing voters. Entenza was born and raised in the southwestern Minnesota community of Worthington, which could be useful in peeling off a few Republican votes in a close election, but that's assuming there are even any townsfolk in the community who realize Entenza is a native son. The DFL Auditor candidate, Rebecca Otto, is the DFL's only example of a geographically useful candidate in these races, beckoning from a conservative corner of the northeastern metro area and having one term in the state House under her belt as a means of raising name ID. Otto may have the best chance of the three candidates at winning in November, particularly if the brewing scandal on the incumbent's watch ends up having legs.
4) The Green and Independence Parties. The rise of third and fourth parties have been the DFL's worst nightmare in recent years, particularly in these low-profile offices where the absence of candidate name recognition and a firm political party affiliation cause a sizable share of the electorate to experiment with alternative parties. Unfortunately for the DFL, it seems as though this experimentation has come almost entirely at their expense. Had the votes of the Green Party candidates for Secretary of State and Auditor in 2002 went DFL, Buck Humphrey and Carol Johnson would be the incumbents this year rather than Republicans Kiffmeyer and Anderson (Awada) who scored their narrow victories based on defections by far-left voters and center-left voters from the DFL. With all evidence pointing to an angry and cynical electorate this year, it seems even more likely that voters will exercise their "protest vote" in favor of the Greens or Independents in the fall, increasing the odds that the DFL candidates will come up empty.
It's easy to write off these races as irrelevant, but they're very significant in this hyperpartisan era. Secretaries of State all over the country are gaming the systems in their respective states to maximize the advantage for their own party, including here in Minnesota. Certain red-state Attorney Generals are feverishly pursuing the hospital records of their citizens to expose women who've had abortions and other medical procedures that they should be able to keep private. This heightened level of relevance for these races makes it all the more difficult to have to predict the far-right delegation of candidates being run by the Minnesota Republican Party as likely to prevail. But between Ritchie's huge name recognition deficit, Otto's likely struggles to win over Scandinavian-bred voters with her German surname and an opponent named Anderson, and Entenza's burgeoning conflict of interest muddying his Attorney General run against a stronger-than-usual Republican challenger, things are not looking good for the DFL delegation as of now.
The aforementioned races are typically not marquee contests and most voters seem to approach them knowing little about the respective candidates, and thus end up basing their vote on superficial criteria. It would seem that in a Democratic year, that would cut in the DFL's favor, but here are the reasons I'm doubtful this time.....
1) The power of incumbency. GOP Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer is a two-term incumbent while GOP Auditor Pat Anderson (formerly Awada) is a one-term incumbent. Both are intensely partisan and have a couple of mini-scandals surrounding their offices as a result, but very few voters will know of those scandals. The one thing they are likely to know is the name of the incumbent, particularly in the case of Kiffmeyer, and most will vote with the familiar name.
2) Surname ethnicity. I already cited superficial criteria being prime dealmakers and dealbreakers in these low-profile constitutional office elections. One of the most frequent of these superficial criteria is voters pulling the lever for candidates whose last name is closest to their own ethnic heritage. Regardless of party, the candidates who seem to do best have simple, Scandinavian last names. Candidates who perform weakest have strange or ethnically dubious last names. Suffice it to say I'd rather be running for Auditor or Attorney General under the surname Anderson or Johnson, as two of the GOP candidates are, rather than Ritchie or Entenza, as two of the DFL candidates are.
3) Favorable geography. Each of the three Republican candidates for these constitutional offices comes from a geographically valuable region. Kiffmeyer was raised in the small town of Pierz in central Minnesota and currently lives in the fast-growing St. Cloud exurb of Big Lake. In her previous two elections, she has reined in supersized margins in the entire St. Cloud/central Minnesota region and it has helped her win both times. Auditor Pat Anderson was formerly the Mayor of Eagan in the metro area's southern suburbs. She beat her DFL opponent by less than 15,000 votes in 2002 based almost entirely on her enormous strength in the southern suburbs, where other Republicans on the ballot scored more modest margins of victory that year. And Republican Attorney General candidate Jeff Johnson is a popular legislator from the second-ring suburb of Plymouth. His name recognition in the western suburbs could easily help him avoid the erosion of support that Republicans have faced there in some recent election cycles, thus improving his margin of victory.
By contrast, I'm not sure of the geographic origins of DFL Secretary of State candidate Mark Ritchie. Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza is a more familiar name being the leader of the minority party in the state House, but coming from the city of St. Paul doesn't exactly provide him with a foothold on swing voters. Entenza was born and raised in the southwestern Minnesota community of Worthington, which could be useful in peeling off a few Republican votes in a close election, but that's assuming there are even any townsfolk in the community who realize Entenza is a native son. The DFL Auditor candidate, Rebecca Otto, is the DFL's only example of a geographically useful candidate in these races, beckoning from a conservative corner of the northeastern metro area and having one term in the state House under her belt as a means of raising name ID. Otto may have the best chance of the three candidates at winning in November, particularly if the brewing scandal on the incumbent's watch ends up having legs.
4) The Green and Independence Parties. The rise of third and fourth parties have been the DFL's worst nightmare in recent years, particularly in these low-profile offices where the absence of candidate name recognition and a firm political party affiliation cause a sizable share of the electorate to experiment with alternative parties. Unfortunately for the DFL, it seems as though this experimentation has come almost entirely at their expense. Had the votes of the Green Party candidates for Secretary of State and Auditor in 2002 went DFL, Buck Humphrey and Carol Johnson would be the incumbents this year rather than Republicans Kiffmeyer and Anderson (Awada) who scored their narrow victories based on defections by far-left voters and center-left voters from the DFL. With all evidence pointing to an angry and cynical electorate this year, it seems even more likely that voters will exercise their "protest vote" in favor of the Greens or Independents in the fall, increasing the odds that the DFL candidates will come up empty.
It's easy to write off these races as irrelevant, but they're very significant in this hyperpartisan era. Secretaries of State all over the country are gaming the systems in their respective states to maximize the advantage for their own party, including here in Minnesota. Certain red-state Attorney Generals are feverishly pursuing the hospital records of their citizens to expose women who've had abortions and other medical procedures that they should be able to keep private. This heightened level of relevance for these races makes it all the more difficult to have to predict the far-right delegation of candidates being run by the Minnesota Republican Party as likely to prevail. But between Ritchie's huge name recognition deficit, Otto's likely struggles to win over Scandinavian-bred voters with her German surname and an opponent named Anderson, and Entenza's burgeoning conflict of interest muddying his Attorney General run against a stronger-than-usual Republican challenger, things are not looking good for the DFL delegation as of now.
posted by Mark at 9:56 PM
6 Comments:
I knew that the SoS and AG seats would be very important. I don't think we have Auditor seats in CA or TX.
Back home, I endorsed Debra Bowen, Democrat for California Secretary of State, who is running on a "fair elections" platform. She is challenging incumbent Bruce McPherson (who was appointed by Arnold), who certified the easily-tampered-with electronic voting machines. I hope she wins.
Everyone back home is also watching the Attorney General race, with popular former governor Jerry "live within our means" Brown. Brown is staunchly anti-death penalty, which could prove crucial as the future of the death penalty in California is being debated.
Here in the Lone Star State, I strongly support David Van Os for Attorney General. He has pledged to "go after" the oil companies. It is a long shot, but I am supporting him the whole way through.
As for all the other statewide offices, as expected, California and Texas will remain true to their partisan leanings.
Sara, I remember reading that the Democrats didn't even run any candidates for those statewide office races in Texas in 2002. Are they are contested races there this time besides Van Os gunning for the AG seat?
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From what I've seen, in addition to Van Os, there are Democrats running for other statewide offices here. Also, being consistent with the governor, Senate, and House races (in which they are running in every district except the partisan 9th (D) and 11th (R)), the Libertarian Party has candidates vying for these seats as well. Jon Roland is the Libertarian candidate for Attorney General.
Comptroller: Fred Head (D) and Mike Burris (L)
Land Commissioner: VaLinda Hathcox (D) and Mike French (L)
Agriculture Commissioner: Hank Gilbert (D) and Clay Woolam (L)
Railroad Commissioner: Dale Henry (D) and Tabitha Serrano (L)
I checked the results in 2002 on the DC Political Report site and there were Democrats for all five of those offices then as well.
Attorney General: Kirk Watson
Comptroller: Marty Akins
Land Commissioner: David Bernsen
Agriculture Commissioner: Tom Ramsay
Railroad Commissioner: Sherry Boyles
I hope that the Minnesota statewide elections turn out as you have suggested, but for different reasons. Do you think that surname ethnicity is that important? Aren't we supposed to be beyond that sort of thing? Or are the voters of Minnesota, really deep down in their heart of hearts, just another bunch of racists?
sara, thanks for the info. Looks like I had some bad information about the Dems not running any candidates for Texas' statewide office races in 2002.
douglas, I wouldn't go so far to call voters' surname preferences "racist", at least no more than when specific ethnic groups celebrate their heritage, be it St. Patrick's Day or Cinco de Mayo. Voters will naturally feel a stronger cultural bond with those who emigrated to the United States from the same places their forefathers did. An Irish-American voter is more likely to vote for a Murphy than a Schmidt, while a German-American voter is more likely to vote for the opposite, often regardless of party. It certainly is superficial, and less likely to matter the higher profile the race is, but with these statewide offices, I'm expecting it to swing the vote a couple points each way.
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