Obama's Biggest Problem
My mom turned 60 today. I visited home this past weekend and politics naturally consumed a large share of the conversation with the Minnesota caucuses taking place tomorrow night. My mom, who had been on the fence between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, is now firmly in the Hillary camp. She even went so far as to say she may sit out the next election if Obama's the nominee. My dad, who is 62, was a hard-core Edwards supporter, and is wringing his hands with frustation having to choose between two choices he deems unacceptable. He's leaning towards Obama, but I'm sure it'll take all the energy he has to drag himself to the caucuses tomorrow night to make that commitment.
Theweek before last, they both attending a DFL gathering in my southern Minnesota hometown, an old-school labor town where the local Democratic apparatus consists overwhelmingly of senior citizens once active in the city's all-but-extinct union muscle. Of the 30 or so in attendance, my parents reported more than two-thirds of the gray-haired crowd (the youngest there they estimated to be in his mid-40s) supporting John Edwards, with the remainder supporting Hillary. Not one supported Barack Obama.
Racism is not a motivator in my parents' reluctance towards Obama, and I doubt it's a primary motivator in most of those who prefer the other candidates in my home county. My parents both caucused for Jesse Jackson in 1988, and if I remember right he came in a close second to Michael Dukakis in the county caucuses that year. The prevailing consensus is simply that Obama is an empty suit. His talk of "hope" is viewed as all hat and no cattle, and there is serious doubt that he'll be able to avoid being held accountable for that for the next nine months. It's a far cry from the fawning adulation Obama receives from the youthful crowds that dominate his rallies.
And that's where Obama's most serious problem comes in, both on his march to the nomination and his ability to win general elections. His strongest base of support comes from an age demographic that votes in the smallest numbers, and due to shrinking birth rates and rising life expectancies, is becoming a smaller share of the American electorate with each passing day. Outside of South Carolina where racial polarization trumped age polarization, the exit/entrance polls have drawn sharp battle lines.....Obama wins huge numbers of the youth vote, but gets spanked among older votes. Given that older votes are growing in numbers and are the most politically active, their reluctance towards Obama is clearly a cause for concern. Will he be able to win them over if he becomes the nominee? Particularly if he's facing off against a member of the gray-haired generation? I have serious doubts. And even if Obama wins by 2-1 among voters under 30, it's unlikely he'd be able to overcome underperforming John Kerry among seniors, which I fully expect would be the case.
I'm a Barack Obama supporter by default myself at this point, and I have no inclination towards changing teams to the far less electable Hillary. Still, I continue to be frustrated with the idea that the Democrats are on the cusp of squandering the perfect opportunity to win the White House by getting behind candidates who are not among their strongest on their lineup. The Republicans are making a calculated move in the name of electability by nominating McCain while the Democrats have become cocky. It all reeks of the same final outcome that is still making us nauseous after the last two Presidential elections.
Theweek before last, they both attending a DFL gathering in my southern Minnesota hometown, an old-school labor town where the local Democratic apparatus consists overwhelmingly of senior citizens once active in the city's all-but-extinct union muscle. Of the 30 or so in attendance, my parents reported more than two-thirds of the gray-haired crowd (the youngest there they estimated to be in his mid-40s) supporting John Edwards, with the remainder supporting Hillary. Not one supported Barack Obama.
Racism is not a motivator in my parents' reluctance towards Obama, and I doubt it's a primary motivator in most of those who prefer the other candidates in my home county. My parents both caucused for Jesse Jackson in 1988, and if I remember right he came in a close second to Michael Dukakis in the county caucuses that year. The prevailing consensus is simply that Obama is an empty suit. His talk of "hope" is viewed as all hat and no cattle, and there is serious doubt that he'll be able to avoid being held accountable for that for the next nine months. It's a far cry from the fawning adulation Obama receives from the youthful crowds that dominate his rallies.
And that's where Obama's most serious problem comes in, both on his march to the nomination and his ability to win general elections. His strongest base of support comes from an age demographic that votes in the smallest numbers, and due to shrinking birth rates and rising life expectancies, is becoming a smaller share of the American electorate with each passing day. Outside of South Carolina where racial polarization trumped age polarization, the exit/entrance polls have drawn sharp battle lines.....Obama wins huge numbers of the youth vote, but gets spanked among older votes. Given that older votes are growing in numbers and are the most politically active, their reluctance towards Obama is clearly a cause for concern. Will he be able to win them over if he becomes the nominee? Particularly if he's facing off against a member of the gray-haired generation? I have serious doubts. And even if Obama wins by 2-1 among voters under 30, it's unlikely he'd be able to overcome underperforming John Kerry among seniors, which I fully expect would be the case.
I'm a Barack Obama supporter by default myself at this point, and I have no inclination towards changing teams to the far less electable Hillary. Still, I continue to be frustrated with the idea that the Democrats are on the cusp of squandering the perfect opportunity to win the White House by getting behind candidates who are not among their strongest on their lineup. The Republicans are making a calculated move in the name of electability by nominating McCain while the Democrats have become cocky. It all reeks of the same final outcome that is still making us nauseous after the last two Presidential elections.
posted by Mark at 4:30 PM
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