Thoughts on the Veepstakes
Before I ponder the running mate candidates too intensively, let me first state that I'm stunned at how drug out this process has been. I would have predicted both candidates to have selected running mates at least a month ago. Frankly I think it was a mistake, particularly for the Obama campaign, to let this drag on throughout the month of August as the GOP slime machine beat him senseless. He could stolen some headlines for himself by selecting his running mate a couple of weeks ago, but seems so fond of dangling the "well-kept secret" in front of the media and the public that he wasted an opportunity to go on the offensive. And keep in mind, John Kerry picked John Edwards on July 6, 2004. And even in the low-intensity 2000 campaign, Bush picked Cheney on July 27, 2000, and Gore picked Lieberman on August 7, 2000. So we are WAY behind schedule this year. And I don't really understand why considering how much sooner the calendar ran on every other aspect of this never-ending 2008 Presidential campaign.
Let's start with Obama's veep prospects, beginning with what I deem the good choices, followed by the bad choices...
The good.....
Ted Strickland--Oh that's right. The popular Ohio Governor and former Appalachain Congressman, and perhaps the one man who could have helped Obama in his weakest territory in the country, took himself out of the running back in June. If Obama loses Ohio by 1-2 percentage points and it costs him the election, Strickland could have alot to answer for within the party.
Evan Bayh--There's ample evidence that Indiana is in play this year, and its 11 electoral votes would be one helluva feather in Obama's cap if he could win it. With the popular Bayh, it could happen. Without Bayh, the chances are extremely slim. Bayh also adds a unique blend of youth and experience to the ticket. He's only 52 and looks considerably younger than that, yet nonetheless has eight years experience as Indiana Governor and 10 years experience as a U.S. Senator. Not a bad resume. There are two small problems with Bayh however. He has a reputation as not being a fighter...and in this election with a nominee as vulnerable on character issues as Obama, an attack dog is needed. Secondly, Bayh was a staunch supporter of the foolhardy Iraq war, and continued to be a hawk long after being a hawk was no longer cool in Democratic circles. Nonetheless, Bayh is my favorite of those on Obama's short list.
Joe Biden--The Obama ticket desperately needs someone on the ticket who can shore up his foreign policy credentials and few in the Democratic Party are as solid on those matters as Biden. Biden is known to be a long-winded talker, but it seemed as though he reined in his rhetorical excesses in his impressive performances in the primary debates last year. And the gravitas he brings to the table would almost assuredly help Biden mop the floor up with GOP lightweights like Willard Romney or Tim Pawlenty in the veep debate. The downsides of Biden....he brings no geographical strengths to the ticket and would not help Obama in any swing states. Beyond that, Biden has time and time again displayed an Al Gore-esque inability to control himself from making destructive self-aggrandizing statements.
Sam Nunn--I'm kind of surprised the conservative former Democratic Senator from Georgia no longer seems to be on the veep short list. While it's doubtful he would be able to help Obama much in Georgia, he would be a political masterstroke as he is widely praised as a center-right Democrat that would "balance the ticket", but had the wisdom to be right about Iraq when most of his "centrist" ilk were rubber-stamping Bush's war policy. His only downside far as I can tell is his history as being against gays in the military, which has almost certainly left some residual ill will in the homosexual community. Still, that's a pretty limited downside for a guy who seems to no longer be in the running.
The bad....
Hillary Clinton--There shouldn't be much explanation necessary here. A Hillary selection would be so bad at so many different levels it blows the mind. For every "angry Hillary supporter" it would help bring on board, it would alienate at least two would-be Obama supporters who loathe Hillary.
Tim Kaine--I just don't understand this one at all. Obama's biggest weakness in this campaign is his experience deficit versus McCain, so he plans to counter that by choosing the one man in American politics with even less experience than himself as his running mate??!?!?! I seriously question how much value Kaine would even be in Virginia. And even if he was a significant help to Obama in Virginia, he would be a liability in the other 49 states. Yet Kaine remains on the short list.... In my opinion, he'd be the worst veep pick since Dan Quayle.
Kathleen Sebelius--Another head scratcher for me. She's not from a swing state. She has no foreign policy experience to round out the ticket. Her ascendancy to a national ticket reeks of tokenism even more than the Geraldine Ferraro selection of 1984 did.....or at least it would to the insulted Hillary supporters. This is another brainfart that should have been deep-sixed long ago.
Bill Richardson--On paper, Richardson looks fantastic. But a good debater he is not, and I think the Obama campaign realizes and African-American and a Hispanic sharing a ticket is a concept America is in no way ready for. It's too bad for Richardson because in other ways he'd be an outstanding selection.
Now, onto McCain's veep list. The good...
Joe Lieberman--Wow would this be a coup d'tat for McCain to pull this off. Sure, the fundies would be foaming at the mouth over the pro-choice selection....for a few days. But in the end, they'd be onboard, as would a lot of conservative Democrats who respect Lieberman not to mention a good percentage of the Jewish community in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Tom Ridge--Again, the outrage among the religious right over the pro-choice selection would quickly fade and McCain would be left with a well-respected elder statesman who doesn't look all that elder. More importantly, he would put Pennsylvania back in play....and if Obama is fighting tooth and nail to hang onto Pennsylvania, he's not gonna be elected President.
Tim Pawlenty--I would have put my home state's Governor in a "neutral" category a month ago. While he would be a perfectly competent selection who could ably serve the requisite role of the running mate, I never bought into the idea that voters concerned about McCain's age would waive those concerns if he picked a youthful running mate. Furthermore, it didn't look at though Minnesota would be a swing state last month, but it certainly does now, meaning Pawlenty's stock has risen considerably.
Charlie Crist--Crist no longer seems to be on the short list, and his only real purpose on the ticket would be to take Florida completely off the table. But that would be huge in terms of freeing up resources for McCain to take the fight to Obama's turf rather than going through the usual motions of $25 million wasted on Florida only to once again discover on election night that the pre-election polls were five points too generous for the Democrat.
The bad.....
Willard Romney--Willard's Presidential campaign SHOULD go down as one of the biggest disasters in history. Here is a guy who by all intents and purposes should have been able to breezily buy the GOP nomination, but failed every step of the way. Even his most ardent supporters in the primary were only onboard because he was the closest thing to a conservative left in the race after the Fred Thompson departure. And McCain hates the guy's guts to boot! The only potential positive that Willard could bring to the table would be the outside possibility that he would move the needle in HIS FATHER'S home state of Michigan...and that seems like quite a stretch.
Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina--McCain continues to toy with the idea of selecting women CEOs with questionable track records in the companies they ran. Either of them would get eaten alive in a debate with Joe Biden or Sam Nunn, or even Evan Bayh, on foreign policy matters. That's why I don't think McCain is serious about them.
My guess is that it comes down to Bayh or Biden for Obama....and Pawlenty or Lieberman for McCain. If anyone other than these four were selected, I'd be surprised.
Let's start with Obama's veep prospects, beginning with what I deem the good choices, followed by the bad choices...
The good.....
Ted Strickland--Oh that's right. The popular Ohio Governor and former Appalachain Congressman, and perhaps the one man who could have helped Obama in his weakest territory in the country, took himself out of the running back in June. If Obama loses Ohio by 1-2 percentage points and it costs him the election, Strickland could have alot to answer for within the party.
Evan Bayh--There's ample evidence that Indiana is in play this year, and its 11 electoral votes would be one helluva feather in Obama's cap if he could win it. With the popular Bayh, it could happen. Without Bayh, the chances are extremely slim. Bayh also adds a unique blend of youth and experience to the ticket. He's only 52 and looks considerably younger than that, yet nonetheless has eight years experience as Indiana Governor and 10 years experience as a U.S. Senator. Not a bad resume. There are two small problems with Bayh however. He has a reputation as not being a fighter...and in this election with a nominee as vulnerable on character issues as Obama, an attack dog is needed. Secondly, Bayh was a staunch supporter of the foolhardy Iraq war, and continued to be a hawk long after being a hawk was no longer cool in Democratic circles. Nonetheless, Bayh is my favorite of those on Obama's short list.
Joe Biden--The Obama ticket desperately needs someone on the ticket who can shore up his foreign policy credentials and few in the Democratic Party are as solid on those matters as Biden. Biden is known to be a long-winded talker, but it seemed as though he reined in his rhetorical excesses in his impressive performances in the primary debates last year. And the gravitas he brings to the table would almost assuredly help Biden mop the floor up with GOP lightweights like Willard Romney or Tim Pawlenty in the veep debate. The downsides of Biden....he brings no geographical strengths to the ticket and would not help Obama in any swing states. Beyond that, Biden has time and time again displayed an Al Gore-esque inability to control himself from making destructive self-aggrandizing statements.
Sam Nunn--I'm kind of surprised the conservative former Democratic Senator from Georgia no longer seems to be on the veep short list. While it's doubtful he would be able to help Obama much in Georgia, he would be a political masterstroke as he is widely praised as a center-right Democrat that would "balance the ticket", but had the wisdom to be right about Iraq when most of his "centrist" ilk were rubber-stamping Bush's war policy. His only downside far as I can tell is his history as being against gays in the military, which has almost certainly left some residual ill will in the homosexual community. Still, that's a pretty limited downside for a guy who seems to no longer be in the running.
The bad....
Hillary Clinton--There shouldn't be much explanation necessary here. A Hillary selection would be so bad at so many different levels it blows the mind. For every "angry Hillary supporter" it would help bring on board, it would alienate at least two would-be Obama supporters who loathe Hillary.
Tim Kaine--I just don't understand this one at all. Obama's biggest weakness in this campaign is his experience deficit versus McCain, so he plans to counter that by choosing the one man in American politics with even less experience than himself as his running mate??!?!?! I seriously question how much value Kaine would even be in Virginia. And even if he was a significant help to Obama in Virginia, he would be a liability in the other 49 states. Yet Kaine remains on the short list.... In my opinion, he'd be the worst veep pick since Dan Quayle.
Kathleen Sebelius--Another head scratcher for me. She's not from a swing state. She has no foreign policy experience to round out the ticket. Her ascendancy to a national ticket reeks of tokenism even more than the Geraldine Ferraro selection of 1984 did.....or at least it would to the insulted Hillary supporters. This is another brainfart that should have been deep-sixed long ago.
Bill Richardson--On paper, Richardson looks fantastic. But a good debater he is not, and I think the Obama campaign realizes and African-American and a Hispanic sharing a ticket is a concept America is in no way ready for. It's too bad for Richardson because in other ways he'd be an outstanding selection.
Now, onto McCain's veep list. The good...
Joe Lieberman--Wow would this be a coup d'tat for McCain to pull this off. Sure, the fundies would be foaming at the mouth over the pro-choice selection....for a few days. But in the end, they'd be onboard, as would a lot of conservative Democrats who respect Lieberman not to mention a good percentage of the Jewish community in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Tom Ridge--Again, the outrage among the religious right over the pro-choice selection would quickly fade and McCain would be left with a well-respected elder statesman who doesn't look all that elder. More importantly, he would put Pennsylvania back in play....and if Obama is fighting tooth and nail to hang onto Pennsylvania, he's not gonna be elected President.
Tim Pawlenty--I would have put my home state's Governor in a "neutral" category a month ago. While he would be a perfectly competent selection who could ably serve the requisite role of the running mate, I never bought into the idea that voters concerned about McCain's age would waive those concerns if he picked a youthful running mate. Furthermore, it didn't look at though Minnesota would be a swing state last month, but it certainly does now, meaning Pawlenty's stock has risen considerably.
Charlie Crist--Crist no longer seems to be on the short list, and his only real purpose on the ticket would be to take Florida completely off the table. But that would be huge in terms of freeing up resources for McCain to take the fight to Obama's turf rather than going through the usual motions of $25 million wasted on Florida only to once again discover on election night that the pre-election polls were five points too generous for the Democrat.
The bad.....
Willard Romney--Willard's Presidential campaign SHOULD go down as one of the biggest disasters in history. Here is a guy who by all intents and purposes should have been able to breezily buy the GOP nomination, but failed every step of the way. Even his most ardent supporters in the primary were only onboard because he was the closest thing to a conservative left in the race after the Fred Thompson departure. And McCain hates the guy's guts to boot! The only potential positive that Willard could bring to the table would be the outside possibility that he would move the needle in HIS FATHER'S home state of Michigan...and that seems like quite a stretch.
Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina--McCain continues to toy with the idea of selecting women CEOs with questionable track records in the companies they ran. Either of them would get eaten alive in a debate with Joe Biden or Sam Nunn, or even Evan Bayh, on foreign policy matters. That's why I don't think McCain is serious about them.
My guess is that it comes down to Bayh or Biden for Obama....and Pawlenty or Lieberman for McCain. If anyone other than these four were selected, I'd be surprised.
posted by Mark at 4:16 PM
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