Is Obama About To Be Mowed Down By GOP Over Stimulus?

With monolithic one-party control of government comes tremendous political risk. The growing potential for an epic defeat for Obama's economic stimulus plan highlights those risks. With John McCain having just stated his opposition to Obama's plan in its current form, January 25, 2009, will go down as the day any hopes for a "bipartisan economic stimulus package" passing Congress died. After all the work to compose a stimulus package that Obama naively believed many Republicans would find acceptable and sign on for, it's looking increasingly likely that Obama's 2009 economic stimulus package will get just as much Republican support as Bill Clinton's 1993 economic stimulus package. In other words, none at all.

There is no good reason politically for Republicans to attach themselves to this package and plenty of reasons for them to oppose it. Even if the stimulus works, there will be few signs of it at any point in the near future as most of the spending and jobs programs will take several months to kick in. Furthermore, if stimulus works and restores our economic footing, the massive borrowing needed to finance the stimulus will then trigger a brand-new economic crisis in the form of gargantuan public debt and massive inflation. Whatever happens, Congress and the White House will find themselves taking blame for continued financial despair, which is likely to linger for years to come, and Republicans positioned to point their finger at those who created the mess.

So what's the Republicans' best move? Basically the move it appears that they're poised to make. They've already baited the Obama administration into larding up the stimulus package with $300-400 billion worth of mindless tax cuts as a means of shoring up Republican support. As a result, they'll get a stimulus package more to their liking than the ones Democrats would have preferred, yet still get to vote against it as a cynical political tactic of kicking the new administration in the shin. Bottom line: Democrats will be forced to vote on a tax-cut heavy stimulus package that they know won't work with zero Republican support as a means of helping the new President avoid a calamitous embarrassment.

Welcome to Washington, Mr. President. Perhaps Obama and Democratic Congressional leaders can still salvage this stimulus package from becoming a political neutron bomb, but at least for now, it looks like it's becoming a bigger clusterfuck with each passing hour.

Legalizing Marijuana: Government Will Screw It Up

I see that a new law was passed by voters on last November's ballot that essentially "decriminalizes" marijuana possession in the state of Massachusetts. I still don't really understand the subtle differences between "legalizing" and "decriminalizing" marijuana, especially given this explanation of the new law in press accounts:

"The marijuana decriminalization law passed in a referendum last November by state voters would mean offenders caught with such marijuana amounts would only face a ticket and related fine, The Boston Globe said."

Huh? So it's decriminalized by there's still a ticket and related fine for those in possession of marijuana even with the new law? What has changed?

This policy seems likely to be the latest baby step on a pathway that ultimately leads to marijuana legalization. In theory, I'm supportive of that idea, both on the grounds of personal freedom and in avoiding the prosecution, and often imprisonment, of nonviolent drug offenders. But in recent years I've come to the realization that government would be completely ineffective in successfully overseeing a responsible legalization plan.

Government's primary motivation in legalizing marijuana would be to legislate itself a new revenue pinata. "Legalize it....and then tax the hell out of it" is the rallying cry likely to be heard by supportive federal and state lawmakers. By following this course, they will render null and void all the benefits of legalization. In this case of obscenely overtaxed cigarettes today, a black market has emerged and proliferated, making cigarette smuggling the fastest-growing criminal enterprise in America today. In the future case of obscenely overtaxed legalized marijuana, the existing black market will not go away. It will still be able to distribute marijuana to consumers at a local cost than the post-sin tax legalized product. Bottom line: there is no net benefit to anybody for legalizing marijuana.

I have no use for marijuana myself and am agnostic on its prevalence in society, but nonetheless usually yield on the side of personal freedom when there's a debate on the legal availability of a demanded consumer product. I would be more than happy to see a responsible marijuana legalization plan emerge, but have zero confidence that it would be anything other than a house of cards created by revenue-grubbing lawmakers that would be guaranteed to fail as a public policy measure.