Will Congress Change Party Hands Over and Over Every Few Years?
Looking at the indisputable data pointing to a likely GOP takeover of the House this coming November, it got me thinking about two things. First, it was just four years ago that the Earth was shaking in favor of Democrats, who swept into power winning seats nobody would have imagined winnable for Democrats two years earlier. Second, at this point in 2004, the 95+% reelection rate of incumbents of both parties in the previous five Congressional elections was considered "scandalous". My how times have changed.
For the foreseeable future, I envision Congressional race volatility of historically unprecedented levels. A landslide GOP win in 2010 will complicate my prediction a little because the Republicans would have disproportionate influence in configuring district lines for the decade ahead following the 2010 census results and thus giving themselves a serious decadelong advantage. Even so, Republicans largely had the same advantage after 2000 when all the stars were aligned for them for the 2001 district reapportionment, yet in 2006 they still managed to lose what was thought to be an impenetrably Republican House....and then managed to lose an additional 20+ seats to Democrats in 2008.
Expect that every two years, control of Congress will be up for grabs as American voters have become increasingly impatient in their leadership expectations in permanently troubled times. The reason for this voter impatience in contrast to their deference to incumbents in the decade past: America is a nation in decline, most likely irreversible decline, and voters refuse to accept it.
The lack of easy answers available from politicians today that were advanced by incumbent politicians in flush times have not made them many friends, and the would-be easy answers that are proposed ("we can have universal health care and not add one penny to the deficit") are met with understandable cynicism. Yet in 2012 or 2014, when Republicans are likely to control the House and offer delirious and plutocratic solutions of their own which will fail to quench the populist rage sweeping the country, the Democrats will probably be poised to retake Congress again. And then the tables are likely to be turned again by 2016. Rinse and repeat.
Again, this volatility is poised to be endemic because, barring a wholesale transformation of our economic infrastructure back to something sustainable, America is poised to continue failing. The seeds for our decline were sown back when globalization was at its infancy, as we were never gonna be able to compete with the developing world when the playing field was leveled or at least more level. Nonetheless, creativity in the financial industry produced a mirage of continued American exceptionalism for another generation, artificially increasing American's expectations of continued vitality. The only problem: the empire was not real, constructed with cheap credit and bottomless consumerism, and as a consequence, was unsustainable.
Add to all of this our entanglement in multiple foreign policy quagmires and we have the mess that America faces in 2010, a mess poised to grow much worse with the coming demographic shift which will force even more hard choices and broken promises. Is it any wonder why so many voters are so angry and so fickle in their political leanings?
For the foreseeable future, I envision Congressional race volatility of historically unprecedented levels. A landslide GOP win in 2010 will complicate my prediction a little because the Republicans would have disproportionate influence in configuring district lines for the decade ahead following the 2010 census results and thus giving themselves a serious decadelong advantage. Even so, Republicans largely had the same advantage after 2000 when all the stars were aligned for them for the 2001 district reapportionment, yet in 2006 they still managed to lose what was thought to be an impenetrably Republican House....and then managed to lose an additional 20+ seats to Democrats in 2008.
Expect that every two years, control of Congress will be up for grabs as American voters have become increasingly impatient in their leadership expectations in permanently troubled times. The reason for this voter impatience in contrast to their deference to incumbents in the decade past: America is a nation in decline, most likely irreversible decline, and voters refuse to accept it.
The lack of easy answers available from politicians today that were advanced by incumbent politicians in flush times have not made them many friends, and the would-be easy answers that are proposed ("we can have universal health care and not add one penny to the deficit") are met with understandable cynicism. Yet in 2012 or 2014, when Republicans are likely to control the House and offer delirious and plutocratic solutions of their own which will fail to quench the populist rage sweeping the country, the Democrats will probably be poised to retake Congress again. And then the tables are likely to be turned again by 2016. Rinse and repeat.
Again, this volatility is poised to be endemic because, barring a wholesale transformation of our economic infrastructure back to something sustainable, America is poised to continue failing. The seeds for our decline were sown back when globalization was at its infancy, as we were never gonna be able to compete with the developing world when the playing field was leveled or at least more level. Nonetheless, creativity in the financial industry produced a mirage of continued American exceptionalism for another generation, artificially increasing American's expectations of continued vitality. The only problem: the empire was not real, constructed with cheap credit and bottomless consumerism, and as a consequence, was unsustainable.
Add to all of this our entanglement in multiple foreign policy quagmires and we have the mess that America faces in 2010, a mess poised to grow much worse with the coming demographic shift which will force even more hard choices and broken promises. Is it any wonder why so many voters are so angry and so fickle in their political leanings?
posted by Mark at 8:15 AM
6 Comments:
If Republicans gain a majority in the House in 2010, it will not be able to survive an Obama reelection in 2012. The reason is that since 1992, the Democratic percentage for the national House vote has been exactly the same as the Democratic vote for President give or take one percentage point.
If obama wins reelection with 53% of the vote again in 2012, Democrats are almost certain to get between 52% and 54% of the national House vote, putting them back in control. Voters in this country are no longer willing to split tickets. Gone are the days when staunch conservative Republicans like Clay Shaw can get reelected in overwhelmingly Democratic districts and gone are the days when staunch liberal Democrats like Dan Glickman can get elected in overwhelmingly Republican districts.
I'm becoming more and more convinced that this health care reform bill will prove so unpopular that voters will not be satisfied to merely elect a Republican Congress in 2010 and will be highly receptive to rejecting Obama in 2012 in favor of a Republican President campaigning on overturning HCR before it officially becomes law.
Well if that is the case, Democrats can start over and win back Congress in 2014. That is actually the best outcome for Democrats I think.
You keep changing your story. First you said that while you wish McCain would have won, the one benefit that would come from Democrats controlling Congress and the Presidency would be passing health care reform. Now you're saying you hope the GOP wins Congress and the Presidency by 2012so they can roll back the health care reform passed in 2010. Come again?
They wont be able to roll it back. Democrats can filibuster any attempt to repeal it.
Or at least the Dems would filibuster it, if they had spines.
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