State by State Presidential Election Predictions
Labor Day has come and gone and it's an even-numbered year. We all know what that means. I will be eating, sleeping, and breathing horse race politics for most of the rest of 2012. While it's too early to make official calls for the Presidential election, the race has been pretty sturdy even at the state level and I'm gonna go ahead and offer up my state by state predictions here this weekend, with the caveat that I reserve the right to change a call or two in the clutch if conditions on the ground change. I'm gonna hold off with Senate predictions until after the deadline for Todd Akin to drop out passes in the Missouri race later this month, and with the confusing redistricting process at the House level, I don't think I'm gonna make a full-scale prediction list of that this year. But onto the Presidential race main event, where I will tune out potential third-party noise and limit the prediction to the two-party vote.....
Alabama--Obama managed only a lowest-in-the-nation 10% of the white vote in Alabama in 2008, which basically limits him to (some) college students and their professors. You wouldn't think he'd have much further to fall in 2012, but I suspect he still will lose another point or two. And since the black vote seems unlikely to turn out at the rates they did in 2008, an even larger GOP margin in the state than 2008's 21 points seems likely in one of the nation's most conservative states. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 63% (running electoral vote count....0 Obama, 9 Romney)
Alaska--Obama was poised to hold McCain down to single digits in Alaska in 2008 until the Sarah Palin running mate pick took the state off the table and helped McCain win by 22 points. But even a 22-point defeat isn't bad for a Democrat in a Presidential election in Alaska, and I expect the margin will get worse for Obama in 2012. The wild card in Alaska is that the state usually has a significant other-party vote, aligning with everybody from Ralph Nader to Ron Paul in impressive numbers just to defy convention in a typically Alaskan way. But even if the rebels come out in full force on November 6, a super-majority of Alaska voters is still likely to cast their ballot for Mitt Romney. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 63% (0 Obama, 12 Romney)
Arizona--Some horse race analysts suspect Obama would have taken Arizona in 2008 had it not been John McCain's home state. McCain won the state by an underwhelming 9 points, so it's easy to see why the Obama campaign saw Arizona as their one chance to expand the map heading into the 2012 campaign. Of course we haven't heard much about this lately and it's because the plan is not working out. Anecdotal evidence connected to the 2010 illegal immigration fight in the state suggests Arizona is polarizing along ethnic lines with whites moving more towards Republicans than they were already. On the other hand, Obama is probably gonna pick up more of the state's growing Latino vote than he did against McCain, which probably puts the race similar to where it was in 2008 with a decisive high-single-digit Republican win. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 54% (0 Obama, 23 Romney)
Arkansas--For the last three election cycles, I held out some hope for Arkansas to be a competitive state, and every time I've gotten burned every time as the residual connection to the Democratic Party of Bill Clinton fades and it becomes more like other southern states. I knew that racial polarization would prevent Obama from winning the state in 2008, but I was not prepared for the 20-point thumping he was actually treated to. And there's little to indicate Arkansans have warmed to Obama since then, meaning I expect even further defection by many of the remaining Yellow Dog Democrats that held their nose and pulled the lever for him last time. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 62% (0 Obama, 29 Romney)
California--For about 20 years now, California has been a blue state but it was the 2008 election where the magnitude of California's blueness really became clear as Obama won by 24 points. Obama's reach extended to places like Chico, Modesto, and Riverside County which would have been unthinkable four years earlier. Given the state's lingering budget crisis and rough economy likely pushing several conservative-leaning independents back to the GOP, I'm not expecting the margin or the geographic depth of Obama's California victory to be as overwhelming this time, but still expect it to be well into double digits and exceeding the margins that Gore and Kerry got. Projected winner: Barack Obama 58% (55 Obama, 29 Romney)
Colorado--Here's another state where Obama absolutely dominated in 2008, winning by 9 points. It's hard to believe that only 10 years ago, Colorado was considered something very close to a sure bet for Republicans as every election cycle since 2002 has shown tremendous improvement for Democrats. The core suburbs of metropolitan Denver have been the biggest driver of this shift, and the fact that the state's growth is primarily coming from Latinos and ski-town hipsters doesn't hurt either. The conservative core in Colorado remains pretty solid, however, and my guess is their turnout will prove more reliable than the Democrats in the less exciting 2012 contest. This doesn't mean I think Obama will lose Colorado, but I do think his margin will be cut in half. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (64 Obama, 29 Romney)
Connecticut--Since the 1980s, the state of Connecticut has undergone a complete transformation from a Republican-leaning state to a Democratic lock in Presidential elections, despite its reputation as being the commuting destination for Wall Street millionaires. Now there's far more to Connecticut that the Wall Street commuter corridor in the state's southwest corner, but Obama's 22-point romp of McCain in the state was made possible by all the hedge fund managers of Greenwich voting for him just as voters in the slums of Bridgeport did. Perhaps not surprisingly, the polls are showing a closer race in Connecticut in 2012 with part of Obama's 2008 coalition apparently having abandoned him for Mitt Romney. Gee, I wonder which part that might be. I'm guessing the unpopularity of the state's new Democratic Governor is probably not helping Obama here either. Projected winner: Barack Obama 56% (71 Obama, 29 Romney)
Delaware--Much like Connecticut, the white-collar state of Delaware was a Republican-leaning state a generation ago, but shifted dramatically leftward during the Clinton years. I really don't know much about this state or understand it very well beyond its population center essentially being an extension of metropolitan Philadelphia, which has also shifted towards Democrats in the last two decades. Being such a small state with a native son on the ticket in Joe Biden undoubtedly contributed greatly to Obama's massive 25-point victory here in 2008, and I suspect that Biden's presence on the ticket will keep Obama from hemorrhaging as much support here as he will in demographically similar Connecticut in 2012. Projected winner: Barack Obama 59% (74 Obama, 29 Romney)
District of Columbia--Washington DC has been the nation's bluest governmental jurisdiction in every election in my lifetime and that will continue in 2012. However, I'm guessing African American turnout will decline from 2008's historic highs and reduce Obama's 86-point margin of victory to a more tenuous 82-point advantage this time. Nailbiter till the end as always in DC. Projected winner: Barack Obama 91% (77 Obama, 29 Romney)
Florida--Political graveyards are full of Democrats ranging from Al Gore to John Kerry to Bill McBride to Alex Sink who thought they were going to win Florida based on overly optimistic pre-election polling, yet went on to inglorious defeat. As a result I have become extremely cynical of Florida polling to the point of believing than anything less than a five-point lead for a Democrat means defeat in the state of Florida. To be fair, the polls were right in Florida in 2008, showing Obama winning by two points. But it took a perfect storm of a coalition to pull it off with maxed-out black and Puerto Rican turnout and just enough elderly whites and skeptical Jewish voters hanging on. I remain skeptical that this perfect storm can be repeated no matter how promising polling is right now in Florida, and given the state's history of teasing Democrats, I'm sticking with my gut and going with a narrow Romney win here. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 51% (77 Obama, 58 Romney)
Georgia--When Obama flexed his cash-fueled campaign muscle in 2008 and expanded the map, I scoffed when he made an aggressive push in the hostile terrain of Georgia, but was impressed when he got within five points of victory against McCain in the state. Of course, 2008 was a perfect storm of maxed-out turnout among the state's growing African American population, while picking off a few of the state's ultra-conservative white voters, all while monopolizing the airwaves with unanswered ads. Neither campaign has a presence in Georgia in 2012, meaning Obama's advantages won't exist there and we can expect a more traditional outcome. The state's non-white population is fast approaching a majority and suggests the state could be competitive a couple of cycles down the road, but Romney owns it in 2012. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 55% (77 Obama, 74 Romney)
Hawaii--What an odd cycle 2008 was with both Alaska and Hawaii having a native son and daughter on the Presidential ticket. And while Hawaii has almost always been a Democratic stronghold, I was struck by the extent that the state came out to support its own with Obama winning more than 70% of the vote on the islands compared to a mere 53% for John Kerry four years earlier. I expect the native son buzz has faded enough to suppress turnout for 2012, but still expect Hawaii will be Obama's strongest state this year as it was four years ago. Projected winner: Barack Obama 67% (81 Obama, 74 Romney)
Idaho--Outside of Appalachia, even the reddest states in the union showed significant improvement for Barack Obama in 2008 compared to Gore and Kerry in the previous election cycles and crimson red Idaho was no exception as McCain won here by "only" 26 points compared to 35+ point beatdowns for Gore and Kerry. I expect the state will revert to form in 2012 as Idaho does not seem like a state that fits well with Obama-style government. The state's heavy Mormon presence should consolidate around Romney and further run up the GOP score here this year. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 69% (81 Obama, 78 Romney)
Illinois--There were two striking sets of results in Barack Obama's huge 25-point home state victory in 2008.....his complete domination of the farthest reaches of Chicagoland....and the fact that he underperformed Al Gore in most places in the southern half of Illinois. Heading into 2012, I suspect we'll see continued erosion of Obama's numbers in the state's rural southern counties and I don't think he'll be winning places like Du Page County in suburban Chicago by double digits as he did four years ago. The Democratic Party took an incredible beating in Illinois in 2010 thanks in large part to the sins of former Governor Rod Blagojevich, and it's hard to tell if the state is still in a punishing mood towards Democrats. Even if they are, Obama is effectively guaranteed a double-digit victory in his home state but it seems unlikely to be as across-the-board as it was four years ago. Projected winner: Barack Obama 58% (101 Obama, 78 Romney)
Indiana--When Barack Obama contested Indiana four years ago I thought it was a clever move to try to make inroads in a state that neighbors his own, but until the very end of the campaign I didn't really believe he'd win there. Incredibly, he did, running up the score in the state's population centers to unimaginable levels and holding down losses in the rural and suburban areas. But it was a fluke. From the outset, Obama conceded the state of Indiana to the opposition, and while very little polling is available due to a campaign law technicality, the consensus is that Romney has a comfortable lead there. Even so I expect the days of 20-point GOP victories in Indiana may be over, and particularly this cycle with a good chunk of the nation's auto industry located in the state and salvaged by Obama's bailout I expect he'll still do decent business in the state's northern cities....but he won't come close to winning statewide this time. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 54% (101 Obama, 89 Romney)
Iowa--The political trendlines of the Upper Midwest tend to ebb and flow together. They certainly did in 2008 when Iowa shifted along with its neighbors decisively to Obama after having been a tick-tight battleground state in the previous two cycles. But even with the state's extremely strong economy largely made possible by Obama's green energy initiatives and favorable overtures to corn farmers, Iowa has reverted to a battleground state in 2012 and just might be the closest state in the country according to currently available public polls. My suspicion is that Obama's weaknesses in the state are the rural western and southern counties along with the affluent Des Moines suburbs, where he's likely down significantly from where he was in 2008. I still think Obama wins but it will probably be with a margin closer to what Gore won by in 2000 than the nine points Obama won by in 2008. Projected winner: Barack Obama 51% (107 Obama, 89 Romney)
Kansas--Any Democratic Presidential candidate who gets more than 40% of the vote in fire engine red Kansas is doing pretty well, and Barack Obama did just that in 2008. Don't expect him to do that well again as it seems like a safe bet that the moderate Republicans in suburban Kansas City that went for Obama last time will revert to form in 2008 for Mitt Romney. All that needs to be said about this state is that Obama won only three of its 105 counties even in 2008....and will probably win at least one less this year. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 63% (107 Obama, 95 Romney)
Kentucky--Due to a strong showing in Louisville and its suburbs, Obama managed to reduce the Democratic margin of defeat in Kentucky from 20 points in 2004 down to 16 points in 2008. Obama may do just as well this time in metropolitan Louisville, but the likelihood is that he'll get pasted so badly everywhere else in the state that it'll make John Kerry's numbers seem perky by comparison. Obama's biggest problem here is the blame his administration is taking, some justified but most not, for the current struggles of the coal industry in east Kentucky. Even in 2008, this part of Kentucky snubbed Obama, with some counties that went 25 points or better for Kerry four years earlier turning over for McCain. But in 2012, I expect the bottom to fall out, with Romney pulling off numbers in Kentucky coal country as lopsided as what Republicans typically get in south Kentucky tobacco and horse country. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 61% (107 Obama, 103 Romney)
Louisiana--Obama reached almost unthinkable depths with whites in the Deep South in 2008, dropping as low as 14% of the white vote in Louisiana, a state where Bill Clinton won an outright majority in a three-candidate race only 12 years earlier. With that in mind, he doesn't have much further to sink beyond his 19-point statewide defeat heading into 2012. Yet with a combination of even slightly lower support among whites than in 2008 and a likely smaller turnout among African Americans, I expect Obama will manage to underperform his anemic numbers here four years ago. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 61% (107 Obama, 111 Romney)
Maine--Since the Clinton era, the rural states of northern New England states have been trending pretty dramatically Democratic, including Maine which went for Barack Obama by an eye-opening 17-point margin in 2008. The Republicans had a good midterm in 2010, but there's indication of buyer's remorse on that front, particularly with the state's blowhard Governor who eked out a narrow win among divided opposition in a three-candidate race. These are only a couple reasons why Maine is considered a lock for Obama in 2012, despite an almost complete absence of polling. I'd be surprised if Obama's win was as dominating this year as it was in 2008, however. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (111 Obama, 111 Romney)
Maryland--Few states are as demographically perfect for Barack Obama than the Democratic stronghold of Maryland, with an African American population of more than 30% and a left-leaning, educated white population largely in the employ of the federal government. This coalition helped Obama catapult to a 24-point margin of victory in the state in 2008, and while lower turnout is likely to deflate that number a little, I expect his support will hold up better in Maryland than most other places in the country. Projected winner: Barack Obama 60% (121 Obama, 111 Romney)
Massachusetts--In recent decades, Massachusetts has long been considered one of the nation's most Democratic states, having gone for the Democratic nominee for President by more than 20 points in the last five election cycles. But there a couple of reasons I think that specific streak will end in 2012. First of all, Mitt Romney was the Governor of Massachusetts, and while he wasn't popular and still isn't, he'll carry with him some supporters who were 2008 Obama voters. Furthermore, there have been signs the state's more conservative Democrats (mostly working class, ethnic whites...the same voters giving Democrats headaches across the country) are drifting from their party, as has been evidenced by the ongoing success of Senator Scott Brown. Obama will still win Massachusetts, and win handily, but this year I'm guessing it will be by less than 20 points. Projected winner: Barack Obama 59% (132 Obama, 111 Romney)
Michigan--In 2008, Obama crushed McCain by more than 16 points in Michigan, but it wasn't a fair fight as McCain gave up on the state in September giving Obama full control of the airwaves for the final six weeks of the campaign. Furthermore, the imminent problems related to the state's auto industry made "change" a pretty easy option for Michiganders. Four years later, the state's economy is on the rebound and Obama can credibly take some credit for it having supported the auto bailout that Mitt Romney came out in opposition of. All this makes for a state that Romney has all but conceded, despite being the state he was born in and where his dad was Governor. There are some bad public polls out there suggesting the state is close, but the fact that neither campaign is bothering to go on the airwaves there suggests Obama is leading comfortably. It's unlikely he'll win by as much as he did four years ago, but I still suspect Obama gets double digits or somewhere close to it in 2012. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (148 Obama, 111 Romney)
Minnesota--The opposite situation of Michigan, it was John McCain that hotly contested Minnesota in 2008, believing it was a state he just might win, while Obama stayed off the airwaves believing he'd easily win there. Obama was right, but his 10-point margin probably didn't live up to his potential vote due to the answered McCain media saturation. This year, neither campaign is bothering to contest Minnesota, suggesting Obama is probably positioned to do about as well as he did four years ago. With that said, Minnesota is notoriously unpredictable on election day and I think the margin for Obama will be smaller than many currently believe, particularly since most of its neighboring states seem to have moved more decisively away from Obama. Projected winner: Barack Obama 53% (158 Obama, 111 Romney)
Mississippi--Despite getting only 11% of the white vote, Barack Obama performed better than Al Gore or John Kerry in the nation's most racially polarized state due to an impressive African American turnout that went almost unanimously for Obama. Unlike 2008, there is no hotly contested Senate race in the state and thus less of a reason for Democrats (in Mississippi that means blacks) to come out to vote. The result will likely mean a more typical Presidential election outcome in Mississippi about three points more Republican than four years ago. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 59% (158 Obama, 117 Romney)
Missouri--Over the past quarter century, the state of Missouri has been trending steadily towards the Republicans, so much so that even in the Democrats' strongest Presidential election victory in decades in 2008, they fell just short of winning the Show Me State. I'm not surely what exactly happened in Missouri that has pushed it so decisively to the right since the Clinton years, but the conventional wisdom that it's the vast rural interior of the state responsible for its recent friendliness towards Republicans is only half right. Just as integral to Missouri's current Republican lean is the suburban areas of Kansas City and St. Louis. Jefferson County south of St. Louis was Dick Gephardt country not so long ago. Obama barely won there in 2008, but managed to underperform Al Gore. And its double-digit victories for Republicans in the 2010 midterms suggests it's not likely to return to the Obama fray in 2012. Ditto for Clay County, the primary suburban county of Kansas City. Gore won it in 2000 (by exactly one vote!) but McCain won it in 2008. These are pretty damning trendlines for suburban counties, and so long as Missouri's suburbs are defying national trendlines, Democrats will fall further behind there, and we will get a handle on how far looking at Romney's margins this November. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 54% (158 Obama, 127 Romney)
Montana--I never really understood why the libertarian cowboys of Montana seemed to take a shine to Obama in 2008, but he crushed Hillary in the primary there and got as high as 48% against McCain in 2008, only two points short of victory. Polls are over the place for 2012, and while they all show Obama losing, the question is whether it will be by mid-single digits or double digits. My guess is double digits, although I'd be delighted if it was moderately close here again. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 56% (158 Obama, 130 Romney)
Nebraska--Of the many surprises that came in the 2008 election regarding Obama's expansion of the map, there were few bigger surprises than his victory in the Omaha-based NE-02 Congressional district. Since Nebraska allocates its electoral votes proportionally per Congressional district, Obama managed one of the five electoral votes in the state, which has long been one of the most reliable Republican states in the country, going for every GOP Presidential candidate by double digits in my lifetime. McCain's 16-point statewide win in Nebraska represented a very weak Republican performance for the state. But everything points to Nebraska reverting back to form this cycle. While the Omaha area is diversifying racially and demographically, it's still majority white and the limited amount of polling shows Romney is running ahead, albeit by single digits rather than the near-20-point margins Bush won the district by twice. While Nebraska is probably not gonna be as red as Idaho and Wyoming again as it was back in the 1980s, it's still probably gonna be one of the top five or so states for Romney this fall. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 64% (158 Obama, 135 Romney)
Nevada--Even during the Bush years when Republicans were winning Nevada, I always noticed it ended up being closer than pre-election polls indicated on election night. With that in mind, I figured Obama was probably a pretty safe bet there heading into 2008 when polls showed him narrowly leading, but I was blown away by his sweeping 12-point win. Of course, this was at the ebb of the economic meltdown which disproportionately affected fast-growing Nevada, and the same set of circumstances that favored Obama as a challenger in 2008 are gonna be a millstone in 2012 when he's an incumbent in a state that still has among the worst economies in the country. With that said, the non-white population in Nevada is fast approaching a majority and the demographics alone make it increasingly tough sledding for Republicans, but add to that the service workers' union machine that helps explain for the Democrats' overperformance of polls nearly every cycle in the state and even a recession-fueled slump in Obama's 2012 margin is likely to be far from enough to get Romney a victory in the state. My money is that the horse race analysts are very charitable in even considering Nevada a battleground state. Projected winner: Barack Obama 53% (164 Obama, 135 Romney)
New Hampshire--Here's another state that would have been hard to imagine leaning Democratic in Presidential elections back in 1988, but taxophobic New Hampshire has seen the Republican Party it used to love fall into the hands of Southern-based war hawks and Christian fundamentalists...and they just don't feel at home anymore. With that said, the state is still the most conservative in New England and as we saw in 2010, still have one foot in their GOP tradition. For that reason, New Hampshire is a battleground state for the 2012 Presidential election and it's not unthinkable that Mitt Romney could still win it. The Mitt Romney who ran a successful gubernatorial campaign in neighboring Massachusetts in 2002 probably could, but I don't think the Mitt Romney of 2012 can. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (168 Obama, 135 Romney)
New Jersey--It intrigues me that New Jersey seems to have peaked as a blue state in 2000 when Al Gore won it by almost 20 points. Obama won it by 15 points in 2008, but fell short of Gore's numbers. Hard to know exactly what constituency came out for Gore that has not for other Democrats running in New Jersey since, but the conventional wisdom is that Obama will likely underperform his 2008 numbers this fall, if not necessarily by a lot. I'm sure the Governorship of Chris Christie has solidified some conservative-leaning independents to the GOP and there's undoubtedly some annoyed Wall Street barons ready to jump ship to Romney. Nonetheless, it should still be a solid double-digit Obama win in the Garden State. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (182 Obama, 135 Romney)
New Mexico--At least under the current political alignment, it's a fair assumption that the one-point victory George W. Bush eked out of New Mexico in 2004 amidst surprisingly high support from Latinos was the Republican Party's last hurrah in the majority-minority state. Obama went on to wipe out McCain in the state by 15 points four years later and very few even consider New Mexico to be a battleground state in 2012, conceding a likely double-digit victory again for Obama. It seems as though Republicans need to soften their stance on illegal immigration to get a fair hearing from Latinos again, and if that happens (perhaps is current GOP Governor Susanna Martinez goes national) the state could become competitive again. But it ain't happening this year. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (187 Obama, 135 Romney)
New York--There's been a decent amount of polling in New York this cycle and I'm surprised at the extent to which Barack Obama is romping Romney there. There was never any doubt Obama was gonna win--and win big--but it seemed as though there were some serious vulnerabilities in his 2008 coalition which prevailed by 27 points over McCain. That coalition consisted of affluent Long Islanders and Manhattanites connected to Wall Street, Orthodox Jews in places like Anthony Weiner's old Queens-based district, and culturally conservative voters upstate, all of whom have had their problems with Obama since 2008, but who polls suggest are mostly falling in line and setting up Obama for one of his biggest margins of victory in the Northeast yet again. Projected winner: Barack Obama 60% (216 Obama, 135 Romney)
North Carolina--The shift in North Carolina from a double-digit Bush state in 2004, even when native son John Edwards was on the Democratic ticket, to a mixed-race Democrat in 2008 was arguably the biggest upset of the 2008 Presidential race. The tide seems to be turning against Obama in 2012, although it's a closer call that many expected months ago and Romney still hasn't put the race away. The difference is likely that just enough conservative working-class whites took a chance on Obama in 2008, going along with the rest of his sturdier coalition to eke out a 14,000-vote victory. While the rest of the coalition of minorities and young professionals remains intact, that sliver of conservative whites is probably gone. Even though I don't think Obama will win this time, I'm still very impressed by how far North Carolina has come in the Democrats' direction over the past decade. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 52% (216 Obama, 150 Romney)
North Dakota--Obama contested the Republican stronghold of North Dakota in 2008 but ended up losing more decisively than expected, with McCain prevailing by nine points. By North Dakota standards in Presidential elections, that's still close. But the state has changed more than any other in the past four years after the discovery of a massive oil deposit in the western side of the state. The economy is booming, but it's not likely to help Obama any since the boom is the result of the fossil fuel industry, which is no friend of Obama's agenda. Since the state has a hotly contested Senate race, there have been a decent number of polls, all showing Romney dominating, but one poll's internals intriguingly showed the race tied in the state's east side (Fargo, Grand Forks) which Obama won four years ago, meaning Romney must really be running up the score in the oily part of the start. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 58% (216 Obama, 153 Romney)
Ohio--As this Presidential race was starting to take shape a year ago, there was some ridiculous hand-wringing about Obama conceding Ohio as winnable and instead pursuing a Sun Belt-only strategy. It was an idiotic meme at the time which Republicans pounced upon, but the joke is now on them having run a former corporate shark as their nominee and getting hammered with it. Everything has come together to make Obama look good in Ohio heading into 2012, having enacted the auto bailout which saved the state's top industry while simultaneously tarring and feathering Romney's image as a Wall Street cutthroat who spent his career excising blue-collar Ohioans from their jobs. It has worked so well that even the Romney campaign concedes they have a big Ohio problem. It could well be one of the few states where Obama will overperform his relatively soft four-point victory of 2008, and my guess is that most of his gains will be seen in the auto-heavy Toledo and Dayton areas. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (234 Obama, 153 Romney)
Oklahoma--A state that has always been extremely conservative has consolidated its support to the GOP over the past decade. Prior to that, Oklahoma had a lot of Yellow Dog Democrats, particularly in the eastern part of the state until George W. Bush officially absorbed them all in 2004 when he won all 77 counties in the state. John McCain repeated that feat four years later and beat Obama by a nearly 2-1 margin, making it the reddest state in the country in 2008. And I don't think they're done slapping around Democrats yet as I expect there's still a pretty sizable number of 2008 Yellow Dogs who will cross over to the dark side and join all those who already have. Interestingly, however, I don't believe Oklahoma will be Obama's worst state in 2012, but only because of a unique quirk that should elevate Romney above him in a different state yet to be profiled. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 72% (234 Obama, 160 Romney)
Oregon--For more than a generation now, Oregon has been a blue state, but the trendline is clearly moving in an even bluer direction, particularly since the 2000 election where Nader defections nearly pushed Oregon into the George W. Bush column. In 2008, Obama won Oregon by more than 16 points and my suspicion is that he'll see some reduction in that margin in 2012, he'll still win by double digits as the state's growth areas are almost entirely blue areas adding even more blue voters. Projected winner: Barack Obama 56% (241 Obama, 160 Romney)
Pennsylvania--One of the biggest surprises so far in the 2012 campaign is that Mitt Romney isn't even gonna bother to contest Pennsylvania, a state that the desperate John McCain campaign held out for until the bitter end four years ago. And the polling confirms their reluctance as most of them show Obama prevailing by double digits or close to it, mirroring Obama's 10-point margin there four years ago. The usual winning coalition for Democrats in Pennsylvania has been shifting over the past decade as the traditionally Democratic collar counties near Pittsburgh that have long been Democratic strongholds began trending Republican while the traditionally moderate Republican suburbs outside of Philadelphia have been trending Democratic. The Democrats are on the better side of this realignment in terms of votes and really dominated in metropolitan Philadelphia four years ago. Polls suggest Obama appears to be hanging onto most of those voters this time, which is huge trouble for Romney as the GOP really needs a state like PA to compensate for states like Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado that are slipping away from them. Not gonna happen this year though barring a massive Obama meltdown. Projected winner: Barack Obama 53% (261 Obama, 160 Romney)
Rhode Island--Tiny Rhode Island has long been one of the nation's most Democratic states. I suspect it will remain firmly in the Democratic column this year, but like neighboring Massachusetts there is some evidence of some softening amongst blue-collar whites, and the state's massive financial woes could expedite the shift of conservative Democrats to the GOP. My hunch is that in the generation to come, Rhode Island will not be one of the two strongest Democratic states in Presidential elections as it is now, and we're likely to see the start of this transition in 2012. Projected winner: Barack Obama 59% (265 Obama, 160 Romney)
South Carolina--There has been virtually no polling out of South Carolina for 2012, so little that the one poll that was released is nearly a year old as showed the state tied. Obviously that's not the case or somebody else would be picking up on it. And, of course, it's South Carolina, the uber-conservative evil cousin to competitive North Carolina. While the African American population is large enough in South Carolina to hold down GOP margins--all the way to single digits in 2008 when McCain won by 9--my suspicion is black turnout will decline in 2012 and the state will revert to its more traditional margins. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 57% (265 Obama, 169 Romney)
South Dakota--While North Dakota was the state the Obama campaign contested in 2008, the Republican margin of victory was the same in both states with McCain winning by more than eight points. But the overall trendline for South Dakota is not a good one for Democrats as its population center of Sioux Falls has shifted from a unionized meatpacking town a generation ago to a white-collar predatory lending mecca today. Obama eked out a small victory there in 2008, but it's unlikely to be repeated, and if 2000 is any indication, if there isn't a hotly contested downballot race in South Dakota with ensuing GOTV drives, turnout on Indian reservations will be low. And low turnout on Indian reservations is worth a good five points to the Republicans' favor in South Dakota. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 57% (265 Obama, 172 Romney)
Tennessee--A handful of states have shifted very dramatically away from the Democratic Party over the last decade and Tennessee is near the top of that list. Its past reputation as the most moderate Southern state is long gone and with a smaller black population than most of its neighbors, there is little to stop Tennessee's seismic rightward shift which presses forward every two years. Even though Al Gore lost his home state in the 2000 election, he carried 36 of the state's 95 counties. By contrast, Barack Obama was held down to six of them in his 15-point 2008 defeat and it seems likely he'll lose at least two more in 2012. With smaller African American turnout expected in Memphis and Nashville and continued erosion among the remaining white Yellow Dog Democrats, expect Tennessee to be a 20-point Romney romp in November. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 60% (265 Obama, 183 Romney)
Texas--Virtually all of Texas's blistering population growth is coming from nonwhites and I think we can expect to see additional signs of that this year with nominally shrinking GOP margins compared to the 20+ point Republican blowouts during the Bush years. Romney will still coast to a Texas-sized victory as the shrinking white vote gets redder to compensate for the rising tide of Democrat-voting minorities, but with Obama's lopsided national margins among minorities occurring as Texas's majority-minority population gets ever larger, the math is becoming more difficult for Republicans to keep an iron grip on their only large-state stronghold. In as few as two more election cycles, Democrats could be competitive in Texas. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 56% (265 Obama, 221 Romney)
Utah--Under any other circumstance, Utah's standing as the nation's most Republican state would not likely occur in 2012 as it didn't in 2008, given that the state's population is diversifying. But I suspect Utah will get one bonus cycle as the reddest state simply because Mormon Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee, and if we learned anything in the primaries and caucuses it is that Mormons turn out en masse to support their own. As a result, I think we can expect Utah to be redder in 2012 than any state in the country in a Presidential election since 1984 when it was, surprise, Utah. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 73% (265 Obama, 227 Romney)
Vermont--From one of the reddest states to one of the bluest, Vermont is a state I don't really understand as its hard-blue trendline defies everything about its demographic profile as a rural, 98% white state. Over the last two Presidential elections it has zoomed past Massachusetts and Rhode Island in its Democratic might and every indication is that it will continue to soar past them in 2012 and be either the bluest or second state in the country (competing with Hawaii) this November. Projected winner: Barack Obama 65% (268 Obama, 227 Romney)
Virginia--As far back as 2000 it started to become clear that Virginia was seeing a demographic shift that would eventually favor Democrats. With that in mind, it seemed to catch Republicans off-guard when that demographic shift materialized and Obama prevailed by a decisive six-point margin in 2008 after decades of Republican domination of the state. But even then, most Republicans convinced themselves it was a fluke that would not be repeated, failing to recognize that the state's growth zone in northern Virginia was racially diverse and disproportionately in the employ of the federal government, further disincentivizing their continued association with the Republican Party and its talk of taking a meat cleaver to government. I think it's finally starting to set in as the consensus is that Obama's lead in Virginia in 2012 is not far from what it was in 2008, despite a flurry of terrible public polls showing the state closer than either campaign acknowledges it is. Virginia will be the tipping point state for Obama once again this year. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (281 Obama, 227 Romney)
Washington--Like neighboring Oregon, Washington has been voting for Democratic Presidential candidates for a quarter century now and has solidified towards Democrats in the past decade. While I'm expecting a bit of an ebb from Obama's dominating 17-point margin in 2008, he will still win it by double digits in 2012 and might even bring yet another Democratic Governor along with his coattails. Projected winner: Barack Obama 56% (293 Obama, 227 Romney)
West Virginia--From three consecutive states moving towards Democrats to one state moving dramatically against them, West Virginia's long-standing association with national Democrats first crumbled in 2000 based on the perception that Al Gore was an environmental nut who would destroy the state's coal industry. Many believed the state's flirtation with Bush in 2000 was a fluke based on a particularly untenable Democratic candidate, but the state has moved further and further right of the national average every cycle since, and the perception that Barack Obama is doing the job they feared Al Gore would of shutting down their coal industry has amplified their discontent with him, threatening to turn the state corner-to-corner red in 2012. This is definitely not Michael Dukakis' West Virginia. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 61% (293 Obama, 232 Romney)
Wisconsin--It's been a very strange ride for the state of Wisconsin in the last few years, after spending the Bush years defined as a tipping point state in a closely divided America that held out for Al Gore and John Kerry by the tiniest of margins. The geographically widespread 14-point margin of victory Obama pulled off
in 2008 in Wisconsin caught everybody in the business by surprise, but almost immediately after it happened the state swung just as hard to the right. And all evidence points to the state remaining to the right of the national average in 2012 given their vote of confidence in controversial Governor Scott Walker this past summer as well as the narrower Obama leads in recent polls. The addition of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has made the state even closer and it is now considered a battleground state where both campaigns will pour in resources. I suspect Obama will still win, but like Iowa, it will be close and indicative of a region that is trending away from Democrats. Projected winner: Barack Obama 51% (303 Obama, 232 Romney)
Wyoming--Here's a state that never gets a lot of hype for being a coal state since, unlike West Virginia, it's always been Republican in the first place, but there's a reason why even when the rest of the Rocky Mountain states shifted away from Republicans to varying degrees in 2008, Wyoming largely stood still. It's the same reason why the state will be one of Romney's best states in 2012. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 71% (303 Obama, 235 Romney)
So the race largely stands at about the same place I expected it would six months ago, but even my prediction here is a little conservative since most polls show Obama leading in Florida...and if he ends up winning there, we'd be looking at a 332-206 Obama blowout. Obama hasn't put this race away yet and as of this writing, the embassy attacks throughout the Muslim world are very concerning to say the least. If they press on for weeks, it could become a real problem for Obama. Furthermore, the economy is clearly slowing down and if that is reflected in rotten jobs numbers that could also give Romney an opening. But for right now, Obama looks poised to have a pretty comfortable re-election against the worst general election nominee in my lifetime.
Alabama--Obama managed only a lowest-in-the-nation 10% of the white vote in Alabama in 2008, which basically limits him to (some) college students and their professors. You wouldn't think he'd have much further to fall in 2012, but I suspect he still will lose another point or two. And since the black vote seems unlikely to turn out at the rates they did in 2008, an even larger GOP margin in the state than 2008's 21 points seems likely in one of the nation's most conservative states. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 63% (running electoral vote count....0 Obama, 9 Romney)
Alaska--Obama was poised to hold McCain down to single digits in Alaska in 2008 until the Sarah Palin running mate pick took the state off the table and helped McCain win by 22 points. But even a 22-point defeat isn't bad for a Democrat in a Presidential election in Alaska, and I expect the margin will get worse for Obama in 2012. The wild card in Alaska is that the state usually has a significant other-party vote, aligning with everybody from Ralph Nader to Ron Paul in impressive numbers just to defy convention in a typically Alaskan way. But even if the rebels come out in full force on November 6, a super-majority of Alaska voters is still likely to cast their ballot for Mitt Romney. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 63% (0 Obama, 12 Romney)
Arizona--Some horse race analysts suspect Obama would have taken Arizona in 2008 had it not been John McCain's home state. McCain won the state by an underwhelming 9 points, so it's easy to see why the Obama campaign saw Arizona as their one chance to expand the map heading into the 2012 campaign. Of course we haven't heard much about this lately and it's because the plan is not working out. Anecdotal evidence connected to the 2010 illegal immigration fight in the state suggests Arizona is polarizing along ethnic lines with whites moving more towards Republicans than they were already. On the other hand, Obama is probably gonna pick up more of the state's growing Latino vote than he did against McCain, which probably puts the race similar to where it was in 2008 with a decisive high-single-digit Republican win. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 54% (0 Obama, 23 Romney)
Arkansas--For the last three election cycles, I held out some hope for Arkansas to be a competitive state, and every time I've gotten burned every time as the residual connection to the Democratic Party of Bill Clinton fades and it becomes more like other southern states. I knew that racial polarization would prevent Obama from winning the state in 2008, but I was not prepared for the 20-point thumping he was actually treated to. And there's little to indicate Arkansans have warmed to Obama since then, meaning I expect even further defection by many of the remaining Yellow Dog Democrats that held their nose and pulled the lever for him last time. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 62% (0 Obama, 29 Romney)
California--For about 20 years now, California has been a blue state but it was the 2008 election where the magnitude of California's blueness really became clear as Obama won by 24 points. Obama's reach extended to places like Chico, Modesto, and Riverside County which would have been unthinkable four years earlier. Given the state's lingering budget crisis and rough economy likely pushing several conservative-leaning independents back to the GOP, I'm not expecting the margin or the geographic depth of Obama's California victory to be as overwhelming this time, but still expect it to be well into double digits and exceeding the margins that Gore and Kerry got. Projected winner: Barack Obama 58% (55 Obama, 29 Romney)
Colorado--Here's another state where Obama absolutely dominated in 2008, winning by 9 points. It's hard to believe that only 10 years ago, Colorado was considered something very close to a sure bet for Republicans as every election cycle since 2002 has shown tremendous improvement for Democrats. The core suburbs of metropolitan Denver have been the biggest driver of this shift, and the fact that the state's growth is primarily coming from Latinos and ski-town hipsters doesn't hurt either. The conservative core in Colorado remains pretty solid, however, and my guess is their turnout will prove more reliable than the Democrats in the less exciting 2012 contest. This doesn't mean I think Obama will lose Colorado, but I do think his margin will be cut in half. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (64 Obama, 29 Romney)
Connecticut--Since the 1980s, the state of Connecticut has undergone a complete transformation from a Republican-leaning state to a Democratic lock in Presidential elections, despite its reputation as being the commuting destination for Wall Street millionaires. Now there's far more to Connecticut that the Wall Street commuter corridor in the state's southwest corner, but Obama's 22-point romp of McCain in the state was made possible by all the hedge fund managers of Greenwich voting for him just as voters in the slums of Bridgeport did. Perhaps not surprisingly, the polls are showing a closer race in Connecticut in 2012 with part of Obama's 2008 coalition apparently having abandoned him for Mitt Romney. Gee, I wonder which part that might be. I'm guessing the unpopularity of the state's new Democratic Governor is probably not helping Obama here either. Projected winner: Barack Obama 56% (71 Obama, 29 Romney)
Delaware--Much like Connecticut, the white-collar state of Delaware was a Republican-leaning state a generation ago, but shifted dramatically leftward during the Clinton years. I really don't know much about this state or understand it very well beyond its population center essentially being an extension of metropolitan Philadelphia, which has also shifted towards Democrats in the last two decades. Being such a small state with a native son on the ticket in Joe Biden undoubtedly contributed greatly to Obama's massive 25-point victory here in 2008, and I suspect that Biden's presence on the ticket will keep Obama from hemorrhaging as much support here as he will in demographically similar Connecticut in 2012. Projected winner: Barack Obama 59% (74 Obama, 29 Romney)
District of Columbia--Washington DC has been the nation's bluest governmental jurisdiction in every election in my lifetime and that will continue in 2012. However, I'm guessing African American turnout will decline from 2008's historic highs and reduce Obama's 86-point margin of victory to a more tenuous 82-point advantage this time. Nailbiter till the end as always in DC. Projected winner: Barack Obama 91% (77 Obama, 29 Romney)
Florida--Political graveyards are full of Democrats ranging from Al Gore to John Kerry to Bill McBride to Alex Sink who thought they were going to win Florida based on overly optimistic pre-election polling, yet went on to inglorious defeat. As a result I have become extremely cynical of Florida polling to the point of believing than anything less than a five-point lead for a Democrat means defeat in the state of Florida. To be fair, the polls were right in Florida in 2008, showing Obama winning by two points. But it took a perfect storm of a coalition to pull it off with maxed-out black and Puerto Rican turnout and just enough elderly whites and skeptical Jewish voters hanging on. I remain skeptical that this perfect storm can be repeated no matter how promising polling is right now in Florida, and given the state's history of teasing Democrats, I'm sticking with my gut and going with a narrow Romney win here. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 51% (77 Obama, 58 Romney)
Georgia--When Obama flexed his cash-fueled campaign muscle in 2008 and expanded the map, I scoffed when he made an aggressive push in the hostile terrain of Georgia, but was impressed when he got within five points of victory against McCain in the state. Of course, 2008 was a perfect storm of maxed-out turnout among the state's growing African American population, while picking off a few of the state's ultra-conservative white voters, all while monopolizing the airwaves with unanswered ads. Neither campaign has a presence in Georgia in 2012, meaning Obama's advantages won't exist there and we can expect a more traditional outcome. The state's non-white population is fast approaching a majority and suggests the state could be competitive a couple of cycles down the road, but Romney owns it in 2012. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 55% (77 Obama, 74 Romney)
Hawaii--What an odd cycle 2008 was with both Alaska and Hawaii having a native son and daughter on the Presidential ticket. And while Hawaii has almost always been a Democratic stronghold, I was struck by the extent that the state came out to support its own with Obama winning more than 70% of the vote on the islands compared to a mere 53% for John Kerry four years earlier. I expect the native son buzz has faded enough to suppress turnout for 2012, but still expect Hawaii will be Obama's strongest state this year as it was four years ago. Projected winner: Barack Obama 67% (81 Obama, 74 Romney)
Idaho--Outside of Appalachia, even the reddest states in the union showed significant improvement for Barack Obama in 2008 compared to Gore and Kerry in the previous election cycles and crimson red Idaho was no exception as McCain won here by "only" 26 points compared to 35+ point beatdowns for Gore and Kerry. I expect the state will revert to form in 2012 as Idaho does not seem like a state that fits well with Obama-style government. The state's heavy Mormon presence should consolidate around Romney and further run up the GOP score here this year. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 69% (81 Obama, 78 Romney)
Illinois--There were two striking sets of results in Barack Obama's huge 25-point home state victory in 2008.....his complete domination of the farthest reaches of Chicagoland....and the fact that he underperformed Al Gore in most places in the southern half of Illinois. Heading into 2012, I suspect we'll see continued erosion of Obama's numbers in the state's rural southern counties and I don't think he'll be winning places like Du Page County in suburban Chicago by double digits as he did four years ago. The Democratic Party took an incredible beating in Illinois in 2010 thanks in large part to the sins of former Governor Rod Blagojevich, and it's hard to tell if the state is still in a punishing mood towards Democrats. Even if they are, Obama is effectively guaranteed a double-digit victory in his home state but it seems unlikely to be as across-the-board as it was four years ago. Projected winner: Barack Obama 58% (101 Obama, 78 Romney)
Indiana--When Barack Obama contested Indiana four years ago I thought it was a clever move to try to make inroads in a state that neighbors his own, but until the very end of the campaign I didn't really believe he'd win there. Incredibly, he did, running up the score in the state's population centers to unimaginable levels and holding down losses in the rural and suburban areas. But it was a fluke. From the outset, Obama conceded the state of Indiana to the opposition, and while very little polling is available due to a campaign law technicality, the consensus is that Romney has a comfortable lead there. Even so I expect the days of 20-point GOP victories in Indiana may be over, and particularly this cycle with a good chunk of the nation's auto industry located in the state and salvaged by Obama's bailout I expect he'll still do decent business in the state's northern cities....but he won't come close to winning statewide this time. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 54% (101 Obama, 89 Romney)
Iowa--The political trendlines of the Upper Midwest tend to ebb and flow together. They certainly did in 2008 when Iowa shifted along with its neighbors decisively to Obama after having been a tick-tight battleground state in the previous two cycles. But even with the state's extremely strong economy largely made possible by Obama's green energy initiatives and favorable overtures to corn farmers, Iowa has reverted to a battleground state in 2012 and just might be the closest state in the country according to currently available public polls. My suspicion is that Obama's weaknesses in the state are the rural western and southern counties along with the affluent Des Moines suburbs, where he's likely down significantly from where he was in 2008. I still think Obama wins but it will probably be with a margin closer to what Gore won by in 2000 than the nine points Obama won by in 2008. Projected winner: Barack Obama 51% (107 Obama, 89 Romney)
Kansas--Any Democratic Presidential candidate who gets more than 40% of the vote in fire engine red Kansas is doing pretty well, and Barack Obama did just that in 2008. Don't expect him to do that well again as it seems like a safe bet that the moderate Republicans in suburban Kansas City that went for Obama last time will revert to form in 2008 for Mitt Romney. All that needs to be said about this state is that Obama won only three of its 105 counties even in 2008....and will probably win at least one less this year. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 63% (107 Obama, 95 Romney)
Kentucky--Due to a strong showing in Louisville and its suburbs, Obama managed to reduce the Democratic margin of defeat in Kentucky from 20 points in 2004 down to 16 points in 2008. Obama may do just as well this time in metropolitan Louisville, but the likelihood is that he'll get pasted so badly everywhere else in the state that it'll make John Kerry's numbers seem perky by comparison. Obama's biggest problem here is the blame his administration is taking, some justified but most not, for the current struggles of the coal industry in east Kentucky. Even in 2008, this part of Kentucky snubbed Obama, with some counties that went 25 points or better for Kerry four years earlier turning over for McCain. But in 2012, I expect the bottom to fall out, with Romney pulling off numbers in Kentucky coal country as lopsided as what Republicans typically get in south Kentucky tobacco and horse country. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 61% (107 Obama, 103 Romney)
Louisiana--Obama reached almost unthinkable depths with whites in the Deep South in 2008, dropping as low as 14% of the white vote in Louisiana, a state where Bill Clinton won an outright majority in a three-candidate race only 12 years earlier. With that in mind, he doesn't have much further to sink beyond his 19-point statewide defeat heading into 2012. Yet with a combination of even slightly lower support among whites than in 2008 and a likely smaller turnout among African Americans, I expect Obama will manage to underperform his anemic numbers here four years ago. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 61% (107 Obama, 111 Romney)
Maine--Since the Clinton era, the rural states of northern New England states have been trending pretty dramatically Democratic, including Maine which went for Barack Obama by an eye-opening 17-point margin in 2008. The Republicans had a good midterm in 2010, but there's indication of buyer's remorse on that front, particularly with the state's blowhard Governor who eked out a narrow win among divided opposition in a three-candidate race. These are only a couple reasons why Maine is considered a lock for Obama in 2012, despite an almost complete absence of polling. I'd be surprised if Obama's win was as dominating this year as it was in 2008, however. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (111 Obama, 111 Romney)
Maryland--Few states are as demographically perfect for Barack Obama than the Democratic stronghold of Maryland, with an African American population of more than 30% and a left-leaning, educated white population largely in the employ of the federal government. This coalition helped Obama catapult to a 24-point margin of victory in the state in 2008, and while lower turnout is likely to deflate that number a little, I expect his support will hold up better in Maryland than most other places in the country. Projected winner: Barack Obama 60% (121 Obama, 111 Romney)
Massachusetts--In recent decades, Massachusetts has long been considered one of the nation's most Democratic states, having gone for the Democratic nominee for President by more than 20 points in the last five election cycles. But there a couple of reasons I think that specific streak will end in 2012. First of all, Mitt Romney was the Governor of Massachusetts, and while he wasn't popular and still isn't, he'll carry with him some supporters who were 2008 Obama voters. Furthermore, there have been signs the state's more conservative Democrats (mostly working class, ethnic whites...the same voters giving Democrats headaches across the country) are drifting from their party, as has been evidenced by the ongoing success of Senator Scott Brown. Obama will still win Massachusetts, and win handily, but this year I'm guessing it will be by less than 20 points. Projected winner: Barack Obama 59% (132 Obama, 111 Romney)
Michigan--In 2008, Obama crushed McCain by more than 16 points in Michigan, but it wasn't a fair fight as McCain gave up on the state in September giving Obama full control of the airwaves for the final six weeks of the campaign. Furthermore, the imminent problems related to the state's auto industry made "change" a pretty easy option for Michiganders. Four years later, the state's economy is on the rebound and Obama can credibly take some credit for it having supported the auto bailout that Mitt Romney came out in opposition of. All this makes for a state that Romney has all but conceded, despite being the state he was born in and where his dad was Governor. There are some bad public polls out there suggesting the state is close, but the fact that neither campaign is bothering to go on the airwaves there suggests Obama is leading comfortably. It's unlikely he'll win by as much as he did four years ago, but I still suspect Obama gets double digits or somewhere close to it in 2012. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (148 Obama, 111 Romney)
Minnesota--The opposite situation of Michigan, it was John McCain that hotly contested Minnesota in 2008, believing it was a state he just might win, while Obama stayed off the airwaves believing he'd easily win there. Obama was right, but his 10-point margin probably didn't live up to his potential vote due to the answered McCain media saturation. This year, neither campaign is bothering to contest Minnesota, suggesting Obama is probably positioned to do about as well as he did four years ago. With that said, Minnesota is notoriously unpredictable on election day and I think the margin for Obama will be smaller than many currently believe, particularly since most of its neighboring states seem to have moved more decisively away from Obama. Projected winner: Barack Obama 53% (158 Obama, 111 Romney)
Mississippi--Despite getting only 11% of the white vote, Barack Obama performed better than Al Gore or John Kerry in the nation's most racially polarized state due to an impressive African American turnout that went almost unanimously for Obama. Unlike 2008, there is no hotly contested Senate race in the state and thus less of a reason for Democrats (in Mississippi that means blacks) to come out to vote. The result will likely mean a more typical Presidential election outcome in Mississippi about three points more Republican than four years ago. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 59% (158 Obama, 117 Romney)
Missouri--Over the past quarter century, the state of Missouri has been trending steadily towards the Republicans, so much so that even in the Democrats' strongest Presidential election victory in decades in 2008, they fell just short of winning the Show Me State. I'm not surely what exactly happened in Missouri that has pushed it so decisively to the right since the Clinton years, but the conventional wisdom that it's the vast rural interior of the state responsible for its recent friendliness towards Republicans is only half right. Just as integral to Missouri's current Republican lean is the suburban areas of Kansas City and St. Louis. Jefferson County south of St. Louis was Dick Gephardt country not so long ago. Obama barely won there in 2008, but managed to underperform Al Gore. And its double-digit victories for Republicans in the 2010 midterms suggests it's not likely to return to the Obama fray in 2012. Ditto for Clay County, the primary suburban county of Kansas City. Gore won it in 2000 (by exactly one vote!) but McCain won it in 2008. These are pretty damning trendlines for suburban counties, and so long as Missouri's suburbs are defying national trendlines, Democrats will fall further behind there, and we will get a handle on how far looking at Romney's margins this November. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 54% (158 Obama, 127 Romney)
Montana--I never really understood why the libertarian cowboys of Montana seemed to take a shine to Obama in 2008, but he crushed Hillary in the primary there and got as high as 48% against McCain in 2008, only two points short of victory. Polls are over the place for 2012, and while they all show Obama losing, the question is whether it will be by mid-single digits or double digits. My guess is double digits, although I'd be delighted if it was moderately close here again. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 56% (158 Obama, 130 Romney)
Nebraska--Of the many surprises that came in the 2008 election regarding Obama's expansion of the map, there were few bigger surprises than his victory in the Omaha-based NE-02 Congressional district. Since Nebraska allocates its electoral votes proportionally per Congressional district, Obama managed one of the five electoral votes in the state, which has long been one of the most reliable Republican states in the country, going for every GOP Presidential candidate by double digits in my lifetime. McCain's 16-point statewide win in Nebraska represented a very weak Republican performance for the state. But everything points to Nebraska reverting back to form this cycle. While the Omaha area is diversifying racially and demographically, it's still majority white and the limited amount of polling shows Romney is running ahead, albeit by single digits rather than the near-20-point margins Bush won the district by twice. While Nebraska is probably not gonna be as red as Idaho and Wyoming again as it was back in the 1980s, it's still probably gonna be one of the top five or so states for Romney this fall. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 64% (158 Obama, 135 Romney)
Nevada--Even during the Bush years when Republicans were winning Nevada, I always noticed it ended up being closer than pre-election polls indicated on election night. With that in mind, I figured Obama was probably a pretty safe bet there heading into 2008 when polls showed him narrowly leading, but I was blown away by his sweeping 12-point win. Of course, this was at the ebb of the economic meltdown which disproportionately affected fast-growing Nevada, and the same set of circumstances that favored Obama as a challenger in 2008 are gonna be a millstone in 2012 when he's an incumbent in a state that still has among the worst economies in the country. With that said, the non-white population in Nevada is fast approaching a majority and the demographics alone make it increasingly tough sledding for Republicans, but add to that the service workers' union machine that helps explain for the Democrats' overperformance of polls nearly every cycle in the state and even a recession-fueled slump in Obama's 2012 margin is likely to be far from enough to get Romney a victory in the state. My money is that the horse race analysts are very charitable in even considering Nevada a battleground state. Projected winner: Barack Obama 53% (164 Obama, 135 Romney)
New Hampshire--Here's another state that would have been hard to imagine leaning Democratic in Presidential elections back in 1988, but taxophobic New Hampshire has seen the Republican Party it used to love fall into the hands of Southern-based war hawks and Christian fundamentalists...and they just don't feel at home anymore. With that said, the state is still the most conservative in New England and as we saw in 2010, still have one foot in their GOP tradition. For that reason, New Hampshire is a battleground state for the 2012 Presidential election and it's not unthinkable that Mitt Romney could still win it. The Mitt Romney who ran a successful gubernatorial campaign in neighboring Massachusetts in 2002 probably could, but I don't think the Mitt Romney of 2012 can. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (168 Obama, 135 Romney)
New Jersey--It intrigues me that New Jersey seems to have peaked as a blue state in 2000 when Al Gore won it by almost 20 points. Obama won it by 15 points in 2008, but fell short of Gore's numbers. Hard to know exactly what constituency came out for Gore that has not for other Democrats running in New Jersey since, but the conventional wisdom is that Obama will likely underperform his 2008 numbers this fall, if not necessarily by a lot. I'm sure the Governorship of Chris Christie has solidified some conservative-leaning independents to the GOP and there's undoubtedly some annoyed Wall Street barons ready to jump ship to Romney. Nonetheless, it should still be a solid double-digit Obama win in the Garden State. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (182 Obama, 135 Romney)
New Mexico--At least under the current political alignment, it's a fair assumption that the one-point victory George W. Bush eked out of New Mexico in 2004 amidst surprisingly high support from Latinos was the Republican Party's last hurrah in the majority-minority state. Obama went on to wipe out McCain in the state by 15 points four years later and very few even consider New Mexico to be a battleground state in 2012, conceding a likely double-digit victory again for Obama. It seems as though Republicans need to soften their stance on illegal immigration to get a fair hearing from Latinos again, and if that happens (perhaps is current GOP Governor Susanna Martinez goes national) the state could become competitive again. But it ain't happening this year. Projected winner: Barack Obama 55% (187 Obama, 135 Romney)
New York--There's been a decent amount of polling in New York this cycle and I'm surprised at the extent to which Barack Obama is romping Romney there. There was never any doubt Obama was gonna win--and win big--but it seemed as though there were some serious vulnerabilities in his 2008 coalition which prevailed by 27 points over McCain. That coalition consisted of affluent Long Islanders and Manhattanites connected to Wall Street, Orthodox Jews in places like Anthony Weiner's old Queens-based district, and culturally conservative voters upstate, all of whom have had their problems with Obama since 2008, but who polls suggest are mostly falling in line and setting up Obama for one of his biggest margins of victory in the Northeast yet again. Projected winner: Barack Obama 60% (216 Obama, 135 Romney)
North Carolina--The shift in North Carolina from a double-digit Bush state in 2004, even when native son John Edwards was on the Democratic ticket, to a mixed-race Democrat in 2008 was arguably the biggest upset of the 2008 Presidential race. The tide seems to be turning against Obama in 2012, although it's a closer call that many expected months ago and Romney still hasn't put the race away. The difference is likely that just enough conservative working-class whites took a chance on Obama in 2008, going along with the rest of his sturdier coalition to eke out a 14,000-vote victory. While the rest of the coalition of minorities and young professionals remains intact, that sliver of conservative whites is probably gone. Even though I don't think Obama will win this time, I'm still very impressed by how far North Carolina has come in the Democrats' direction over the past decade. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 52% (216 Obama, 150 Romney)
North Dakota--Obama contested the Republican stronghold of North Dakota in 2008 but ended up losing more decisively than expected, with McCain prevailing by nine points. By North Dakota standards in Presidential elections, that's still close. But the state has changed more than any other in the past four years after the discovery of a massive oil deposit in the western side of the state. The economy is booming, but it's not likely to help Obama any since the boom is the result of the fossil fuel industry, which is no friend of Obama's agenda. Since the state has a hotly contested Senate race, there have been a decent number of polls, all showing Romney dominating, but one poll's internals intriguingly showed the race tied in the state's east side (Fargo, Grand Forks) which Obama won four years ago, meaning Romney must really be running up the score in the oily part of the start. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 58% (216 Obama, 153 Romney)
Ohio--As this Presidential race was starting to take shape a year ago, there was some ridiculous hand-wringing about Obama conceding Ohio as winnable and instead pursuing a Sun Belt-only strategy. It was an idiotic meme at the time which Republicans pounced upon, but the joke is now on them having run a former corporate shark as their nominee and getting hammered with it. Everything has come together to make Obama look good in Ohio heading into 2012, having enacted the auto bailout which saved the state's top industry while simultaneously tarring and feathering Romney's image as a Wall Street cutthroat who spent his career excising blue-collar Ohioans from their jobs. It has worked so well that even the Romney campaign concedes they have a big Ohio problem. It could well be one of the few states where Obama will overperform his relatively soft four-point victory of 2008, and my guess is that most of his gains will be seen in the auto-heavy Toledo and Dayton areas. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (234 Obama, 153 Romney)
Oklahoma--A state that has always been extremely conservative has consolidated its support to the GOP over the past decade. Prior to that, Oklahoma had a lot of Yellow Dog Democrats, particularly in the eastern part of the state until George W. Bush officially absorbed them all in 2004 when he won all 77 counties in the state. John McCain repeated that feat four years later and beat Obama by a nearly 2-1 margin, making it the reddest state in the country in 2008. And I don't think they're done slapping around Democrats yet as I expect there's still a pretty sizable number of 2008 Yellow Dogs who will cross over to the dark side and join all those who already have. Interestingly, however, I don't believe Oklahoma will be Obama's worst state in 2012, but only because of a unique quirk that should elevate Romney above him in a different state yet to be profiled. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 72% (234 Obama, 160 Romney)
Oregon--For more than a generation now, Oregon has been a blue state, but the trendline is clearly moving in an even bluer direction, particularly since the 2000 election where Nader defections nearly pushed Oregon into the George W. Bush column. In 2008, Obama won Oregon by more than 16 points and my suspicion is that he'll see some reduction in that margin in 2012, he'll still win by double digits as the state's growth areas are almost entirely blue areas adding even more blue voters. Projected winner: Barack Obama 56% (241 Obama, 160 Romney)
Pennsylvania--One of the biggest surprises so far in the 2012 campaign is that Mitt Romney isn't even gonna bother to contest Pennsylvania, a state that the desperate John McCain campaign held out for until the bitter end four years ago. And the polling confirms their reluctance as most of them show Obama prevailing by double digits or close to it, mirroring Obama's 10-point margin there four years ago. The usual winning coalition for Democrats in Pennsylvania has been shifting over the past decade as the traditionally Democratic collar counties near Pittsburgh that have long been Democratic strongholds began trending Republican while the traditionally moderate Republican suburbs outside of Philadelphia have been trending Democratic. The Democrats are on the better side of this realignment in terms of votes and really dominated in metropolitan Philadelphia four years ago. Polls suggest Obama appears to be hanging onto most of those voters this time, which is huge trouble for Romney as the GOP really needs a state like PA to compensate for states like Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado that are slipping away from them. Not gonna happen this year though barring a massive Obama meltdown. Projected winner: Barack Obama 53% (261 Obama, 160 Romney)
Rhode Island--Tiny Rhode Island has long been one of the nation's most Democratic states. I suspect it will remain firmly in the Democratic column this year, but like neighboring Massachusetts there is some evidence of some softening amongst blue-collar whites, and the state's massive financial woes could expedite the shift of conservative Democrats to the GOP. My hunch is that in the generation to come, Rhode Island will not be one of the two strongest Democratic states in Presidential elections as it is now, and we're likely to see the start of this transition in 2012. Projected winner: Barack Obama 59% (265 Obama, 160 Romney)
South Carolina--There has been virtually no polling out of South Carolina for 2012, so little that the one poll that was released is nearly a year old as showed the state tied. Obviously that's not the case or somebody else would be picking up on it. And, of course, it's South Carolina, the uber-conservative evil cousin to competitive North Carolina. While the African American population is large enough in South Carolina to hold down GOP margins--all the way to single digits in 2008 when McCain won by 9--my suspicion is black turnout will decline in 2012 and the state will revert to its more traditional margins. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 57% (265 Obama, 169 Romney)
South Dakota--While North Dakota was the state the Obama campaign contested in 2008, the Republican margin of victory was the same in both states with McCain winning by more than eight points. But the overall trendline for South Dakota is not a good one for Democrats as its population center of Sioux Falls has shifted from a unionized meatpacking town a generation ago to a white-collar predatory lending mecca today. Obama eked out a small victory there in 2008, but it's unlikely to be repeated, and if 2000 is any indication, if there isn't a hotly contested downballot race in South Dakota with ensuing GOTV drives, turnout on Indian reservations will be low. And low turnout on Indian reservations is worth a good five points to the Republicans' favor in South Dakota. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 57% (265 Obama, 172 Romney)
Tennessee--A handful of states have shifted very dramatically away from the Democratic Party over the last decade and Tennessee is near the top of that list. Its past reputation as the most moderate Southern state is long gone and with a smaller black population than most of its neighbors, there is little to stop Tennessee's seismic rightward shift which presses forward every two years. Even though Al Gore lost his home state in the 2000 election, he carried 36 of the state's 95 counties. By contrast, Barack Obama was held down to six of them in his 15-point 2008 defeat and it seems likely he'll lose at least two more in 2012. With smaller African American turnout expected in Memphis and Nashville and continued erosion among the remaining white Yellow Dog Democrats, expect Tennessee to be a 20-point Romney romp in November. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 60% (265 Obama, 183 Romney)
Texas--Virtually all of Texas's blistering population growth is coming from nonwhites and I think we can expect to see additional signs of that this year with nominally shrinking GOP margins compared to the 20+ point Republican blowouts during the Bush years. Romney will still coast to a Texas-sized victory as the shrinking white vote gets redder to compensate for the rising tide of Democrat-voting minorities, but with Obama's lopsided national margins among minorities occurring as Texas's majority-minority population gets ever larger, the math is becoming more difficult for Republicans to keep an iron grip on their only large-state stronghold. In as few as two more election cycles, Democrats could be competitive in Texas. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 56% (265 Obama, 221 Romney)
Utah--Under any other circumstance, Utah's standing as the nation's most Republican state would not likely occur in 2012 as it didn't in 2008, given that the state's population is diversifying. But I suspect Utah will get one bonus cycle as the reddest state simply because Mormon Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee, and if we learned anything in the primaries and caucuses it is that Mormons turn out en masse to support their own. As a result, I think we can expect Utah to be redder in 2012 than any state in the country in a Presidential election since 1984 when it was, surprise, Utah. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 73% (265 Obama, 227 Romney)
Vermont--From one of the reddest states to one of the bluest, Vermont is a state I don't really understand as its hard-blue trendline defies everything about its demographic profile as a rural, 98% white state. Over the last two Presidential elections it has zoomed past Massachusetts and Rhode Island in its Democratic might and every indication is that it will continue to soar past them in 2012 and be either the bluest or second state in the country (competing with Hawaii) this November. Projected winner: Barack Obama 65% (268 Obama, 227 Romney)
Virginia--As far back as 2000 it started to become clear that Virginia was seeing a demographic shift that would eventually favor Democrats. With that in mind, it seemed to catch Republicans off-guard when that demographic shift materialized and Obama prevailed by a decisive six-point margin in 2008 after decades of Republican domination of the state. But even then, most Republicans convinced themselves it was a fluke that would not be repeated, failing to recognize that the state's growth zone in northern Virginia was racially diverse and disproportionately in the employ of the federal government, further disincentivizing their continued association with the Republican Party and its talk of taking a meat cleaver to government. I think it's finally starting to set in as the consensus is that Obama's lead in Virginia in 2012 is not far from what it was in 2008, despite a flurry of terrible public polls showing the state closer than either campaign acknowledges it is. Virginia will be the tipping point state for Obama once again this year. Projected winner: Barack Obama 52% (281 Obama, 227 Romney)
Washington--Like neighboring Oregon, Washington has been voting for Democratic Presidential candidates for a quarter century now and has solidified towards Democrats in the past decade. While I'm expecting a bit of an ebb from Obama's dominating 17-point margin in 2008, he will still win it by double digits in 2012 and might even bring yet another Democratic Governor along with his coattails. Projected winner: Barack Obama 56% (293 Obama, 227 Romney)
West Virginia--From three consecutive states moving towards Democrats to one state moving dramatically against them, West Virginia's long-standing association with national Democrats first crumbled in 2000 based on the perception that Al Gore was an environmental nut who would destroy the state's coal industry. Many believed the state's flirtation with Bush in 2000 was a fluke based on a particularly untenable Democratic candidate, but the state has moved further and further right of the national average every cycle since, and the perception that Barack Obama is doing the job they feared Al Gore would of shutting down their coal industry has amplified their discontent with him, threatening to turn the state corner-to-corner red in 2012. This is definitely not Michael Dukakis' West Virginia. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 61% (293 Obama, 232 Romney)
Wisconsin--It's been a very strange ride for the state of Wisconsin in the last few years, after spending the Bush years defined as a tipping point state in a closely divided America that held out for Al Gore and John Kerry by the tiniest of margins. The geographically widespread 14-point margin of victory Obama pulled off
in 2008 in Wisconsin caught everybody in the business by surprise, but almost immediately after it happened the state swung just as hard to the right. And all evidence points to the state remaining to the right of the national average in 2012 given their vote of confidence in controversial Governor Scott Walker this past summer as well as the narrower Obama leads in recent polls. The addition of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has made the state even closer and it is now considered a battleground state where both campaigns will pour in resources. I suspect Obama will still win, but like Iowa, it will be close and indicative of a region that is trending away from Democrats. Projected winner: Barack Obama 51% (303 Obama, 232 Romney)
Wyoming--Here's a state that never gets a lot of hype for being a coal state since, unlike West Virginia, it's always been Republican in the first place, but there's a reason why even when the rest of the Rocky Mountain states shifted away from Republicans to varying degrees in 2008, Wyoming largely stood still. It's the same reason why the state will be one of Romney's best states in 2012. Projected winner: Mitt Romney 71% (303 Obama, 235 Romney)
So the race largely stands at about the same place I expected it would six months ago, but even my prediction here is a little conservative since most polls show Obama leading in Florida...and if he ends up winning there, we'd be looking at a 332-206 Obama blowout. Obama hasn't put this race away yet and as of this writing, the embassy attacks throughout the Muslim world are very concerning to say the least. If they press on for weeks, it could become a real problem for Obama. Furthermore, the economy is clearly slowing down and if that is reflected in rotten jobs numbers that could also give Romney an opening. But for right now, Obama looks poised to have a pretty comfortable re-election against the worst general election nominee in my lifetime.
posted by Mark at 6:16 PM
1 Comments:
This means that Democrats are almost certain to keep the Senate. Republicans will pick up ND, NE, WI, and maybe MT, but Democrats will counter by picking up ME, NV, and MA. Amazing that Democrats have a good chance at staying even in the Senate.
Post a Comment
<< Home