Presidential Predictions 2016
I guess it's a good thing I waited a week to post these Presidential predictions. The dynamics of the race have changed just a bit in the last 10 days.....and has potentially really changed in the last 24 hours with the release of Trump's dirty comments on video which has led to a flurry of phony outrage by Republican officeholders who have known all along that Trump talks like that all the time, but since he's trailing in the polls they see this as a window to unload him as their nominee. I'm making these predictions aware of the slim possibility that Trump ends up not being the GOP nominee, but I don't think an egomaniac like Trump will drop out of the race and I suspect it's too late to make any kind of candidate swap with the ballots printed in most states and touch-screen machines with no write-in options in other states. Hard to the believe the GOP isn't stuck with Trump....and honestly it's hard to believe the trajectory of the race will dramatically change anyway. Trump has had multiple comebacks already and on three separate occasions has pulled into a statistical tie with Hillary after having been left for dead in weeks prior. I don't think Trump can win, but I also think it's more likely than not that he'll win back many of the voters who've drifted away from him. That's not the way it works in typical election cycles when a candidate starts reeling in October but 2016 is definitely not a typical election cycle. Even one month ahead of the election in a race this volatile I'm going out on a limb making predictions based largely on a campaign dynamic that largely reflected the conventional wisdom a week ago, and I could end up being dramatically wrong, but I will proceed anyway with state-by-state predictions....
Alabama--It's been 35 years since Alabama was even loosely competitive for a Presidential election but Republican strength hardened during the Bush years and hardened even more in the Obama years. It has the right-wing politics of the rest of the Deep South with fewer African-Americans than other Deep South states to counter it, making it one of the most inelastic Republican states in the country. Romney got nearly 90% of the white vote in 2012 and I suspect Trump will do just about as well this year with whites, but without Obama on the ballot I suspect black turnout will crater, meaning Trump's overall margin will grow. Prediction: Trump by 29 (Romney by 22)
Alaska--Very quietly over the years, Alaska's population has seen significant ethnic diversity and as a result, the dominant Republican margins in Presidential elections have shrunk. Republicans will still win easily but it's very hard to predict by how much. Obama had a strong turnout operation that successfully mobilized the friendly Eskimo population in the furthest reaches of the state, but I'm skeptical we'll see such a strong operation this year. Plus, third-party Gary Johnson looms large in highly libertarian Alaska and could really be distorting. Prediction: Trump by 19 (Romney by 15)
Arizona--The Grand Canyon State has remained stubbornly Republican in the last 20 years despite demographic changes that typically favor Democrats, primarily because the upscale white retirees moving there now are much more conservative than those of a generation ago. Nonetheless, the state is on the periphery of the battleground this year for two reasons....Hispanics and Mormons. The fast-growing Hispanic population has long been poised to turn Arizona blue (or at least purple) and given their alleged fury with Trump are supposed to be mobilized in unprecedented numbers this year. I'll believe it when I see it. More promising for Democrats is Trump's unpopularity among Mormons (including AZ Senator Jeff Flake who refuses to vote for him), one of the most reliably Republican demographics in the country. Even if few Mormons go so far as to support Hillary, if significant numbers vote third-party, it'll bleed votes that Trump depends upon to win the the state. In a perfect storm I could foresee this playing out as planned for Democrats, but I suspect they'll still fair decisively short in 2016. Prediction: Trump by 6 (Romney by 9)
Arkansas--Just three Presidential elections ago, Arkansas was a swing state. Wrap your mind around that as we fast forward to 2016 when the state's former first lady is poised to see it become one of her worst states in the country....a state I suspect she'd have won in 2008 if she was the nominee. They hate Obama in Arkansas, and it's affected the state's perception of the Democratic Party across the board. And while Arkansas' black population is only about 17%, expect turnout to crater among blacks and for Hillary to underperform even the hated Obama. Worse yet for Hillary, Donald Trump is a perfect ideological fit for the populist state and will probably win over most of the last few Yellow Dog Democrats. Prediction: Trump by 31 (Romney by 24)
California--I suspect most regions of the country see weaker performances for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama, but the exception to that rule should be the West Coast. California in particular should be a demographic perfect storm of white liberals, nonwhites, and Orange County-style country club Republicans not interested in Trump's populism. The big question though is turnout. Given that the state will not be competitive in the Presidential race and has a Democrat vs. Democrat Senate race, I could see a dramatic decline in turnout compared to 2012 that could ultimately mean little to no popular vote margin of difference for Hillary versus Obama four years ago. Prediction: Hillary by 26 (Obama by 22)
Colorado--The first battleground state on this alphabetical list is slipping away as a battleground state as it has by this point trended Democrat to the point that the Dems are favored most cycles. Making matters worse for Trump this year, the state is a demographic perfect storm for Hillary with its large numbers of center-left white college-educated suburbanites, a rising Hispanic population, and a Mormon population in the western part of the state that's likely to underperform for Trump. Polls have been quite a bit stronger for Hillary this year than they were for Obama in 2012 and I suspect those polls will hold. Republicans have a strong rising star in Senator Cory Gardner and if the GOP is smart enough to put him on a national ticket in the years ahead, the state of Colorado would be in play again. Outside of that, it's likely Colorado will be a blue state in most future cycles. Prediction: Hillary by 8 (Obama by 5)
Connecticut--There have been some disturbing tea leaves to read throughout the Midwest and northeast showing a mass migration of working-class whites north of Mason-Dixon line drifting to Trump. Connecticut has a smaller white working-class population than most northeastern states but I suspect it's still enough to soften Hillary's margin compared to Obama's 2012 numbers, particularly in the more rural eastern portion of the state. We could well be looking at a Connecticut map where some of the richest jurisdictions in the country like Greenwich and New Canaan go for Hillary while blue-collar New London and Norwich go Trump. Prediction: Hillary by 14 (Obama by 18)
Delaware--Obama probably got a bit of an extra bounce in 2008 and 2012 by having native son Joe Biden as his running mate, but Delaware is still a strong demographic match for Hillary with a combination of upscale suburbanites who think and vote similarly to the left-trending Philadelphia suburbs on the other side of the river along with a good-sized black population. I'm guessing it'll be a pretty status quo cycle here. Prediction: Hillary by 18 (Obama by 19)
District of Columbia--There are two competing themes here. Almost nobody who works in the federal bureaucracy and lives in D.C. has any interest in Donald Trump being President, so I could even see some of the 7% of D.C. residents who voted for Romney in 2012 flipping to Hillary this year. On the other hand, the plurality of the population in the District of Columbia is African-American, and it's hard to believe they'll turn out in comparable numbers for Hillary than Obama, meaning the margin is likely to decline a tick. Prediction: Hillary by 82 (Obama by 85)
Florida--The Sunshine State seems poised to be in a permanent state of diverging coalitions with white retirees and white working-class natives trending heavily to the Republicans while the fast-rising Puerto Rican population and native-born Cuban-American population trending Democrat. The fallout in the immediate future is likely to be Democrats having the edge in Presidential cycles and Republicans having the advantage in lower-turnout midterms. Given that this is a Presidential cycle and GOP nominee Donald Trump is wildly unpopular with Hispanics, including the Cubans who were a monolithic bloc of reliable GOP voters just a couple of cycles ago, Republicans will be in a particularly tough spot this year. Beyond that, the Jewish seniors in Palm Beach and Broward Counties were a bit cool towards Obama in both of his runs but should have less pause in voting for Hillary this year. With all that in mind, the polls showing narrow Hillary leads in Florida will probably hold and she'll outperform Obama's very narrow 2012 win in the state. Prediction: Hillary by 3 (Obama by 1)
Georgia--Aside from the Pacific Coast, the New South (coastal southeastern states) may well be another place where Hillary could see some gains versus Obama because of demographics. In Georgia in particular, the black population is soaring, which by itself is moving Georgia closer to purple state status. Beyond that though, both the upscale and downscale white population was pretty locked in for Romney to the point where it's hard to imagine Hillary having much room for further decline. In fact, the more cosmopolitan suburban whites in metro Atlanta are probably some of the prime examples of potential Romney-Hillary voters. Unfortunately for Hillary I suspect this will be offset some by declining turnout rates among blacks and college students, preventing her from getting the perfect storm needed to win Georgia or even from getting particularly close. Prediction: Trump by 6 (Romney by 8)
Hawaii--While it's a pretty certain bet that Hillary Clinton will win Hawaii's four electoral votes this year based on the state's voting history and partisan advantage, the margin she gets will be one of election night's biggest mysteries. Since it was Obama's de facto home state, he pulled in enormous 70+% margins in both 2008 and 2012. Hillary won't do that well. But in 2004, John Kerry got a surprisingly weak 54% there. I suppose it's possible Hillary could do that badly but it would surprise me. My guess is the margin falls pretty much exactly in the middle of those extremes and she does somewhere in the 62-63% range. Prediction: Hillary by 25 (Obama by 43)
Idaho--Here's another tough one. The Interior West, particularly the northern states of the region, has seen very little polling. It's pretty obvious that Idaho will not be Hillary country but is Trump their guy? Idaho has the second-largest Mormon population in the country and Trump is very unpopular with them, raising the prospect that third-party Gary Johnson and fourth-party Mormon conservative Evan McMullin could slim down Trump's margin compared to that of Romney. Let's say because of the splintering of the non-Hillary vote that she ends up doing a tick better in the head to head versus Trump. Prediction: Trump by 30 (Romney by 33)
Illinois--Another interesting one. At one level, the upscale Chicago suburbs and exurbs are exactly the kind of place where a lot of Romney voters are likely to flip to Hillary rather than vote for Trump. On the other hand, the long-standing realignment of downstate Illinois is almost certain to cancel out whatever gains Obama gets in metropolitan Chicago. The working-class white vote will swing hard to Trump and, coupled with smaller black turnout and college student turnout, stands poised to flip the vast majority of Obama holdouts downstate to the red side. The worst-case scenario for Hillary is if the Chicago suburbs don't come out for her as expected. She'll still win the state handily, but could cost Tammy Duckworth the Senate seat pick-up due to the lack of coattails. I stand by my expectation that Hillary will do well in Chicago's upscale suburbs though. Prediction: Hillary by 16 (Obama by 17)
Indiana--Always a Republican state, Indiana's flirtation with Democrats in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 Presidential race seems like a lifetime ago now as the state has reverted to its Republican roots big-time. At one level, it seemed like the 2012 numbers probably represented the new baseline in the state, solidly Republican but not as hard-core GOP as it was in the Bush years and before. This year, however, Trump's appeal among working-class whites combined with native son Mike Pence sharing a ticket with him is likely to boost the Republican margins closer to what we saw in the Bush years. The fact that the Carrier air conditioner plant that Trump has held up as a bloody T-shirt for his trade demagoguery is in Indiana is also a feather in his cap. Prediction: Trump by 15 (Romney by 10)
Iowa--Living in Iowa, I've been bombarded by millions of dollars worth of Hillary Clinton ads that were until recently unanswered by the Trump campaign. The return on Hillary's investment thus far from these ads? The worst performance in any 2012 Obama state and a decisive Trump lead in the last few major polls. Even in the weeks after the Democratic convention when polls showed Hillary up 8-10 points nationally, she was still lagging dramatically in Iowa, up 2-3 points. Trump's 7-8-point leads came at the peak of Trump's mid-September comeback, but it's still very clear that Hillary has a huge problem in Iowa. There have been plenty of indications in past primaries that Iowans are just not that fond of Hillary, and couple that with the Trump campaign's direct appeal to the blue-collar union voters who make up the Democratic party's base vote in eastern Iowa who held out very nicely for Obama in 2012 and it goes a long way to confirming my prediction last spring that Iowa would be a Trump state. It'll be interesting to see if the latest major problems in Trump's campaign have changed this dynamic, and a new poll coming out Saturday afternoon should be quite telling, but right now I'm sticking with my original call and predicting a Trump win. Prediction: Trump by 2 (Obama by 6)
Kansas--There was some polling a couple of months ago showing Trump leading by only mid-single digits in this crimson red redoubt in the heart of the Plains. Don't buy it. There are some indications that center-right Kansas City suburbanites might be unusually strong for Hillary this year, but we saw similar polls in 2014 suggesting Republican Senator Pat Roberts and Governor Sam Brownback were about to be thrown out. Both prevailed decisively as I suspect Trump will. And Trump will probably do just as well as Romney in the rest of the state, holding his losses to a minimum. Prediction: Trump by 19 (Romney by 22)
Kentucky--The Democratic collapse in Appalachia will continue in 2016. There will be next to nothing that goes Hillary's way in Kentucky. The Yellow Dog Democrats in west Kentucky that already flipped to the GOP will only get redder. The formerly indigo blue coal counties of east Kentucky that already flipped to the GOP will only get redder in lieu of Hillary's "putting a lot of coal miners out of business" comment. And even the union town of Louisville, basically the last Democratic bastion left in Kentucky, will probably see some of its Democratic coalition splinter based on Trump's phony blue-collar populism. A bright red state moves yet again more bright red. Prediction: Trump by 30 (Romney by 23)
Louisiana--Crazy to think that in the 1990s Bill Clinton won Louisiana handily....twice. In 1996, he won the state by double digits. Those days are over and the new baseline for Presidential elections in Louisiana is probably something like a 20-point Republican win, as the formerly swing-ish Cajun vote has swung hard-right and stayed there while the coastal oil influence has turned even more people into Republicans and tens of thousands of African-Americans left the state following Hurricane Katrina. The state should swing even further right in 2016 as Donald Trump is the exact sort of populist brew that will play in the Pelican State and black turnout will likely plummet without Obama on the ballot. Prediction: Trump by 23 (Romney by 17)
Maine--From the beginning of this general election cycle, there were some indications that Maine was very likely to see a major shift to Trump after two landslide Obama wins in 2008 and 2012. And while I never considered it at the outset, it makes sense as Maine, particularly northern Maine, has more working-class whites even than Iowa and a more populist Republican nominee would have tremendous appeal to them, as evidenced by prior victories by offbeat (to put it as complimentary as possible) Governor Paul Le Page who defied everybody's expectations and got re-elected in 2014. While polling has generally shown Hillary with a modest statewide lead, there's another wrinkle in that Maine allocates its electoral votes to the winners of Congressional districts. Hillary will get two of four electoral states for winning statewide and a third electoral vote for a likely big win in the Portland-centric district in the southern part of the state, but every bit of polling evidence has shown her trailing in the blue-collar northern Maine district, and in some cases decisively. I now suspect Maine will split its electoral vote distribution for the first time in the state's history (Gore won the northern Maine district by about 500 votes in 2000 and kept the split from happening that year). Prediction: Hillary by 7 (Obama by 16) (*ME-02 Trump by 5) (*ME-02 Obama by 10)
Maryland--I was shocked when a Republican took advantage of an electoral perfect storm and won Maryland's gubernatorial race in 2014 because I didn't believe that the state was winnable for a Republican any longer given its current demographics. Blacks make up 30% of the population and educated white liberals are abundant throughout the D.C. suburbs. That would be enough to make life impossible for a typical Republican in a Presidential race but this year Trump will face additional headwinds with the desire for continuity and predictability in the way Washington works amongst the many federal workers throughout the state. Even the conservative ones who voted Romney are less likely to want to gamble on Trump's brand of "change" this time around, meaning I think there's room for Hillary to grow even compared to Obama in Maryland. The wild card is turnout slippage among blacks and a huge shift to the right in the state's rural Eastern Shore. Prediction: Hillary by 28 (Obama by 26)
Massachusetts--Most people assume Massachusetts is one of the epicenters of American liberalism, but the state is slowly and quietly experiencing some of the same demographic sorting seen in Middle America. The working-class white regions in the central part of the state and the outlying Boston and Providence exurbs have been voting Republican in more and more elections. None of the state's 14 counties have gone Republican in the last six Presidential cycles, but this year I predict at least two and possibly four of them will. It will still be a Hillary blowout, but I suspect a lot of people will be shocked to see Trump's degree of inroads compared to previous GOP nominees. Prediction: Hillary by 18 (Obama by 24)
Michigan--Trump's appeal to working-class whites was the reason the blue state of Michigan was placed on the list of battleground states in 2016, although Trump has never really gotten the needed traction to win the state and trailed in all Michigan polls even when he was neck-and-neck nationwide. I suspect the unpopularity of Governor Rick Snyder and the state's GOP legislature is helping Hillary's cause in Michigan and keeping some of the center-left white union guys on board even though Hillary is probably not their cup of tea. The positive consequences of the auto bailout are also probably still keeping the Democratic legacy vote afloat better in Michigan than most other Midwestern states. Speaking of legacy votes, Romney's familial affiliation with Michigan where his dad was Governor probably helped him trim away some of Obama's advantage in the state, particularly in the more rural northern reaches of Michigan less affected by Obama's popular auto bailout, so it'll be interesting to see what way those areas go in 2016. Overall I suspect just a little slippage for Hillary compared to Obama. Prediction: Hillary by 7 (Obama by 9)
Minnesota--Even though the limited number of public polls in my home state have been showing decisive Hillary leads the entire general election cycle, it's been understood that there's some sorting going on with the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area, including a number of Republican exurbs, are propping out Hillary while she collapses in outstate Minnesota, particularly in the DFL stronghold of the Iron Range, a bastion of blue-collar whites who have been economic Democrats for generations but are drawn to Trump's promises to rebuild the American steel industry. This sorting pattern may not end up being as pronounced as predicted but if there is Democratic slippage throughout outstate Minnesota, one of the few states where Democrats still have a baseline of support in rural areas, then it portends rough sledding ahead for the state as I suspect if Hillary wins, Democrats are gonna have a much harder time getting those blue-collar outstate voters back than the Republicans will have in getting Romney voters from exurban Minneapolis back. Either way, Hillary should win Minnesota decisively in November. Prediction: Hillary by 6 (Obama by 8)
Mississippi--The 2012 election was a window into what the best-case scenario is for Democrats in the state of Mississippi for a Presidential race as black turnout exceeded white turnout and Romney was held to only a 11-point win. My guess is that plenty of working-class whites weren't enthused with Romney--and perhaps unwilling to vote for a Mormon specifically--and sat out the election. These voters are far more likely to favor Trump over Romney while black turnout will probably slump without Obama on the ticket, suggesting Mississippi reverts to its usual margins in 2016. Prediction: Trump by 17 (Romney by 11)
Missouri--Excited Democrats thought back in the spring that Trump would be such an easy target that Hillary had a good chance at picking up Missouri. That was never gonna happen given the degree to which white working-class-heavy Missouri has trended Republican proportional to the country a little more each cycle going back to the mid-90s. And Trump's blue-collar populism is a far better fit for Missouri conservatives than Romney's country club Republicanism, meaning Trump will likely improve upon Romney's impressive 10-point victory. The only wild card is the degree to which center-right suburbanites in Kansas City and St. Louis stay in the GOP fold. If a significant percentage flip to Hillary it could offset some of Trump's gains, but I suspect that will be less of a factor in suburban Missouri than most of the country. Prediction: Trump by 13 (Romney by 10)
Montana--We've seen very little polling in the northern Plains and Rocky Mountain states, making Montana a real wild card. I'm pretty sure they're not Hillary fans and they also don't have the Mormon influence other Rocky Mountain states do that are depressing Trump's numbers. Plus, the blue-collar pedigree of Montana's Democratic-leaning locales such as Butte and Anaconda would seem to suggest Trump is likely to poach some traditionally Democratic votes. Couple that with a likely turnout decline on college campuses and Indian reservations and I think Trump is poised to make some serious gains over Romney in Montana. Prediction: Trump by 22 (Romney by 14)
Nebraska--I frequently quip that Republican margins in the bright red state of Nebraska have gotten smaller in the past 20 years even as the state has become more reliably Republican. This used to be a two-party state if conservative Democrats played their cards right but those days are over. However, the state's population center of Omaha has gotten more competitive in recent cycles. And that's the one area of ambiguity with Nebraska this year as, like Maine, the state allocates its electoral votes according to Congressional district winners. Donald Trump is all but guaranteed four electoral votes, but there's a possibility that Hillary could pick off enough suburban Omaha Romney voters to score one electoral vote, just as Obama did by narrowly winning the Omaha district in 2008. I think she's gonna come up short by a few points though. Prediction: Trump by 23 (Romney by 22) *Trump by 3 in NE-02 (*Romney by 6)
Nevada--There have been 49 states this election cycle that have voted exactly as I predicted they would at the beginning of the general election campaign cycle.....and then there's Nevada. It seemed pretty obvious in 2012 that the state was moving out of the "battleground" and would be leaning Democrat moving forward as it's heavily unionized with a fast-growing nonwhite population that made up 38% of the electorate in 2012. Not so fast, Nevadans are saying this cycle as Donald Trump is showing surprising strength in the polls, even narrowly leading in them a few weeks back. I laughed at the notion that Trump's background as a casino baron was giving him some bonus points among Nevada voters, particularly he drove his Atlantic City casinos into bankruptcy, but there's some indication that it might be happening. It's still hard to figure out exactly what's going on here, as Nevada's "cow counties" are heavily Mormon which would suggest even more headwinds for Trump based on demographic trends seen thus far. For years know, the Democrats' wild card in Nevada has been the "Reid machine", the army of SEIU members that come out for Democrats on election day and vastly outperform the polling. That's been the case going back nearly a decade in Nevada politics and I suspect it will come into play this year as well, and combining that with Hillary's surge in polling in the last couple weeks generally, Hillary should pull it out rather decisively but still not the kind of margin that she should be getting given the demographics. Prediction: Hillary by 4 (Obama by 7)
New Hampshire--The voting patterns in New England are diverging some this year with typically swing-state New Hampshire appearing to trend Hillary's direction while blue-state Maine is moving Trump's direction, perhaps on top of a loss of blue-collar white attrition in the southern New England states that are less frequently polled. But New Hampshire's demographics favor Hillary this year as the state's conservative base tends to be libertarian-leaning and college-educated, and thus not receptive to Trump. It remains to be seen whether more working-class areas in northern New Hampshire follow Maine's lead and move heavily towards Trump but the upscale Boston exurbs in southeast New Hampshire where Massachusetts residents are known to flee to avoid Massachusetts taxes are likely to dramatically underperform for Trump this year. The state should be at least as strong for Hillary as Obama in 2012 if not a tick better. Prediction: Hillary by 6 (Obama by 5)
New Jersey--Another state that's being completely ignored this cycle for conventional reasons as it's been trending Democratic for a quarter century now, but where I suspect eyebrows might be raised at Trump's gains among white working-class ethnics. After getting good reviews for his handling of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Obama probably got artificially strong numbers out of Jersey rather than setting a new Democratic baseline. This will still be a decisive Hillary win but I suspect the racial stratification of voting patterns are no less likely to materialize in Jersey than in the industrial Midwest this cycle. Hillary by 12 (Obama by 18)
New Mexico--Libertarian Gary Johnson used to be New Mexico's Governor and it was naturally his best state in 2012. He'll likely do above his national baseline there this year as well and potentially scramble the margin of victory outcomes for winner. New Mexico is majority-minority and even though polling has been scarce to nonexistent, it's a safe bet Hillary wins here decisively. But does Johnson take more away from Hillary or Trump in his home state? That's a big question mark for me and makes this one tough to predict, meaning I'll circle the wagons around the 2012 race margin as a reasonable baseline expectation. Prediction: Hillary by 9 (Obama by 10)
New York--The media scoffs about Trump's claims that he might win New York. He won't, but he's on to something that the Trump persona will have more appeal to white New Yorkers upstate and in metro NYC than any recent prior Republican nominee. And sure enough, the one tea leaf we've been provided showed that Long Island counties Nassau and Suffolk, which have both gone Democratic in the last five Presidential elections, are currently polling small leads for Trump. Hillary might trim her losses some given that she's the state's former U.S. Senator, but I still expect working-class redoubts of upstate New York like Buffalo, Rochester, and Binghamton to produce much smaller margins of victory for Hillary or perhaps even flip to Trump. And again, the media who believe white working-class losses will be primarily confined to the Industrial Midwest are likely to be surprised on election night when it hits their own backyard in New York. Prediction: Hillary by 20 (Obama by 27)
North Carolina--Polling currently indicates that Hillary has a small lead in North Carolina, which is pretty incredible when considering how conservative the state was 10 years ago. But Obama's comparative resilience even in narrow defeat in 2012 foreshadowed the state's trajectory being increasingly challenging for Republicans. Racial diversity is only modestly accounting for the shift here but the biggest factor is the state's metro areas are filling up with liberal whites transplanted from the northeast, leaving quite a culture clash with the remnants of Jesse Helms' version of North Carolina that still seems to come out in numbers sufficient to win in midterm cycles. Ultimately, I'm standing by my original prediction from the spring that Trump ekes out a win here, aided by diminished turnout by African-Americans and college students. Prediction: Trump by >1 (Romney by 2)
North Dakota--Expect big movement to Trump here, particularly with the state mired in a slumping oil economy and having inherited tens of thousands of new oil workers who are amongst the most conservative voters in the country. The only question mark is whether upscale and white-collar Fargo, the largest city in North Dakota, continues to follow national demographic trends and flips back to the Democrats after going narrowly Romney in 2012. Even if Hillary can get a blue Fargo, the shift to Trump in the rest of the state should more than cancel it out. Prediction: Trump by 27 (Romney by 20)
Ohio--The most consequential swing state of most election cycles dating back generations has lost some of its significance in 2016, which is good news for Hillary for two reasons. First, it means other states like Colorado and Virginia have gotten bluer and created a path to victory for her that doesn't involve Ohio. And second, Hillary is not doing very well in Ohio! After Trump's rough couple of weeks, Hillary has returned to margin-of-error one and two-point leads in a couple of Ohio polls, but throughout September Trump was leading in Ohio rather decisively. And given the number of working-class whites in Ohio who held out for Obama because of a smart campaign and a corporate raider opponent like Romney, I always figured Ohio would be extremely vulnerable for Democrats this year and moving forward, and the anecdotal evidence suggests Trump's populist pitch is resonating among traditional Democrats in northern Ohio. This may be offset some by Hillary picking up traditional Republicans in upscale Columbus suburbs but I still think Trump maintains an advantage here. Whether that sticks in the aftermath of Trump's latest possible death spiral remains to be seen, but I'm standing by it for now. Prediction: Trump by 2 (Obama by 3)
Oklahoma--The Sooner state has always been very conservative but a strong case can be made that in 2016, it's the most conservative state in the country, a bastion of working-class whites where the last Yellow Dog Democrat holdouts flipped en masse to Republicans during the Obama years and won't be coming back. Trump should fit the populist conservative voters of Oklahoma like a glove and may very well exceed Romney's impressive margins this year. Prediction: Trump by 38 (Romney by 34)
Oregon--Moving from a red state that keeps getting redder to a blue state that keeps getting bluer, Oregon has really solidified as a Portland-centric Democratic stronghold in the last few cycles and Trump seems like a particularly ill-suited fit for the state. I said in my California prediction that I suspected the Pacific Coast would be one of the few regions of the country where Hillary would outperform Obama and I will double down on that prediction with Oregon. Prediction: Hillary by 17 (Obama by 13)
Pennsylvania--In 2012, Mitt Romney poured resources into Pennsylvania at the last minute while Obama held his fire, probably giving Republicans a best-case scenario given their candidate but Obama still won decisively. Romney's gains seemed to come largely from the most upscale of the otherwise Democratic-trending Philadelphia suburbs. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, this demographic of voters in the Philly suburbs is a disaster for him in 2016 and polls indicate Hillary is running up the score to unprecedented levels in the region. Those numbers alone should be good enough for Hillary to win the state decisively, but she'll ending up needing it because there's plenty of indications that Trump is running away with it in western Pennsylvania steel country, which was still heavily Democratic as recently as 10 years ago. The wild card area of the state should be the Lehigh Valley and the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre area in northeastern Pennsylvania, a white working class area demographically similar to western Pennsylvania but which has still been going strong for Democrats in recent cycles. I don't know how that area will go but I suspect the swapping of coalitions will make Pennsylvania a wash in 2016. Prediction: Hillary by 6 (Obama by 5)
Rhode Island--Over the last half dozen cycles, perhaps no other state in the country has been bluer than Rhode Island on average, going for the Democrat by more than 20 points going back to 1992, but the state's significant numbers of blue-collar Italians and Irish make it a particularly ripe target for Trump to dramatically trim Democratic margins. Hillary win still win Rhode Island, but I suspect it'll be with the softest margin for a Democrat since Michael Dukakis. Prediction: Hillary by 16 (Obama by 28)
South Carolina--There's been a fair bit of polling in South Carolina showing Trump putting up weak, low-single-digit margins. For the same reason as Georgia, this doesn't surprise me. South Carolina has more college whites than the inland South states do, relatively moderate conservatives for whom Trump doesn't have much to offer. And since nearly all working-class whites in South Carolina are already Republicans, Trump doesn't have significant potential for gains. The wild card is the 30+% black population and how substantial of a turnout decline Hillary has with them. I suspect it will be enough to cut Trump's loss margin. Prediction: Trump by 8 (Romney by 10)
South Dakota--The southern of the two Dakotas doesn't have the oil industry presence driving it to the right at the speed North Dakota does, but it will still be Trump country in a big way and if turnout collapses on Indian reservations and in college towns, it will only be more painful for Hillary. Just like Fargo in North Dakota, South Dakota has its own white-collar town full of college whites in Sioux Falls. If center-right Romney voters in Sioux Falls move to Hillary out of fear of Trump, it could soften the blow a little for Hillary but it's still gonna be a blowout. Prediction: Trump by 22 (Romney by 18)
Tennessee--For decades, Tennessee was a swing state, but there were signs in the 90s it was trending sharply conservative and those signs played out every bit as strongly as expected if not more so. Having a smaller black population to counter the loss of the white working-class majority, Tennessee has become one of the most conservative and brightest-red states in the country, with Memphis and Nashville basically being the only blue islands left after the last of the rural Yellow Dog Democrats realigned in 2008. Trump is exactly the populist conservative that will play in Tennessee and the state can expected to keep getting redder this year. Prediction: Trump by 25 (Romney by 21)
Texas--There's likely to be diverging trendlines in Texas this year, as the fast-diversifying cities shift significantly to Hillary both because of larger numbers of minority voters and center-right suburbanites drawing a line over Trump, but that will be countered by the rural areas moving even further to Trump. If we're to believe that Hispanic turnout finally ticks up a little based on an energized anti-Trump vote, which I'm definitely NOT convinced of, then Texas may have reached a tipping point where its lopsided GOP margins trim down some. Unless turnout is not as bad as that of a midterm, Hillary should do at least a tick better than Obama, even though the state's trendline away from the GOP is likely to be slower than the Democrats' expectations, probably by about 30 years. Prediction: Trump by 14 (Romney by 16)
Utah--There's a crazy amount of uncertainty in the typically predictable state of Utah this year. Mormons represent a supermajority of the state's population but they're notoriously cool to Trump to the point where some were legitimately wondering if right-wing Utah would be a swing state this year. It won't--not even close--but a new wrinkle has been added to the dynamic with fourth-party "movement conservative" candidate Evan McMullin, who happens to be a Mormon. One poll has showed McMullin pulling in something like 10% in the state, and his protest vote could really serve to drain Trump's would-be margin as almost all of McMullin's voters are likely to be conservative Romney voters. Between McMullin and Johnson, I'd imagine 15% of Utah's vote this year will be third-party, probably the highest in the nation. Even with that level of non-Trump vote, Trump will still win by a landslide. Prediction: Trump by 25 (Romney by 50)
Vermont--The state that had longest streak of Republican voting in American history (from the early 1800s to 1960, and then again from 1968 to 1988) has morphed over the last 20 years into the nation's most liberal state. While it's more than 90% white, it's a hippie-like environment where Trump is not likely to have any more appeal than Romney did, unlike the rest of New England. Prediction: Hillary by 36 (Obama by 37)
Virginia--It was clear around 2000 that the long-standing Republican stronghold of Virginia was softening, with the suburban Washington, DC, counties in northern Virginia leading the way to the coming realignment. The state officially flipped in 2008 when Obama decisively won and it hasn't turned back since, with Democrats now dominated every statewide and federal office in the state. Given its history, Virginia remained on the periphery of the 2016 battleground but particularly with Donald Trump as the GOP nominee, it became quickly clear that Virginia would be staying blue in a major way. Aside from growing racial diversity, the rising number of federal workers in northern Virginia and military contractors in the Tidewater region of southeast Virginia prefer policy continuity and don't care to gamble on a change agent like Trump. Couple all of that with the fact that running mate Tim Kaine is a former Governor and current Senator from Virginia and it explains why Hillary has led decisively in Virginia all season long and will win handily on November 8. Prediction: Hillary by 8 (Obama by 4)
Washington--Another already-blue Pacific Northwest state that's likely to move further blue this cycle. Hard to believe Washington was a swing state as recently as 2000 because it's unthinkable a Republican could win it now. Prediction: Hillary by 19 (Obama by 15)
West Virginia--If it's hard to believe that Washington was a swing state in 2000, it's even harder to believe that West Virginia was as well as the two states have polarized about as far as two states can in the 16 years since. A general cultural shift, along with union-busting, was part of the original rightward shift of West Virginia but more recently it's been the Democrats' position on coal, the lifeblood of West Virginia's struggling economy, and as the coal economy contracts, West Virginians have become ever more hostile towards Democrats, particularly those who let it slip that she plans to "put a lot of coal companies and miners out of business" as Hillary said. I suspect Democrats will long for good old days of Obama's numbers this year as the state races even further to Republicans, particularly with Trump making the reopening of coal mines a centerpiece of his campaign. Prediction: Trump by 42 (Romney by 27)
Wisconsin--Most election cycles, Wisconsin and Iowa track pretty closely but that has not been happening this year as Iowa has been Trump's strongest battleground state for months now while Wisconsin has remained pretty strongly in the Democratic fold, with polls showing the state sticking with Hillary even amidst her lowest point this cycle. It'll be interesting to see the coalitions though as I could see Hillary doing a little better than Obama in the upscale and crimson red Milwaukee suburbs while Trump could well be doing better than Romney did in working-class northern Wisconsin. Either way, I suspect it'll be a wash and the margins will be similar to 2012. Prediction: Hillary by 5 (Obama by 7)
Wyoming--In the last 20 years, Wyoming has rivaled Utah as the nation's most Republican state. On top of the friendly demographics of cowboys and Mormons, Wyoming is also now the nation's largest coal-producing state, adding another element to the GOP coalition pushing the state further to the right. Despite soft support among the state's Mormon population, Trump should more than make up for that with heightened support from coal voters, coupled with softer support for Hillary in college towns and build his margins compared to Romney. Prediction Trump by 45 (Romney b 42)
Back in the spring, my first prediction of this general election contest was 308 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 230 electoral votes for Donald Trump. My amended forecast is nearly identical except that I've tipped the one electoral vote from the northern congressional district of Maine from Hillary's column to Trump's, making my new calculus 307-230 in Hillary's favor. Considering how terrible of a candidate Trump is at every conceivable level, that's not exactly a confidence-filling margin for the future of the republic and leaves the country open to further demagogic manipulation by future Presidential aspirants in 2020 or future cycles. The fact that the country is experiencing peace and prosperity yet still is a hair's breath away, on some days, from electing Donald Trump Presidency makes it really terrifying what's coming the next time the country is either on war footing or in a recession.
This latest Trump scandal poses an interesting time for me to make these final predictions. The conventional wisdom is that Trump will suffer a death spiral and turnout will suffer as a result, but he's defied expectations before and I'm not convinced that his base will follow the establishment rats fleeing his ship en masse. I highly doubt that enough voters will be deterred by this revelation to turn the race into a 15-point Hillary landslide or anything of the like. And furthermore, Hillary had a scandal of her own unfold quietly last evening as well with more hacked e-mails from her campaign by WikiLeaks revealing language from her well-guarded speeches made to Wall Street firms espousing policy positions quite different from those she's taken as a Presidential candidate. She's already wildly unpopular for this exact sort of two-faced behavior and now has given voters who already don't like her one more reason not to vote for her. Now that voters who planned to hold their nose and vote for Hillary just to stop Trump are being told that Trump has been put away for good by his latest scandal, that could further increase their likelihood of just staying home on election night, greatly reducing Hillary's ability to run up the score and to provide coattails to downballot Democrats. Furthermore, WikiLeaks has promised multiple damaging revelations against Hillary. They've delivered so far and may well again with more damaging information about Hillary that doesn't get lost in the news cycle as badly as this last one did. And, of course, more Trump scandals could yet emerge too, particularly since everybody knows he always talks about women the way he did in that "Access Hollywood" video.
The fact that so many things can yet go awry this election cycle makes it the most unpredictable in my lifetime. It would be thrilling if every new revelation wasn't another black mark against the character of these two knuckleheads who were nominated by their parties. Overall, I think they'll end up canceling each other out and submerging turnout to a nearly 100-year low with the final outcome not much different than what the polling average has shown since spring.
Alabama--It's been 35 years since Alabama was even loosely competitive for a Presidential election but Republican strength hardened during the Bush years and hardened even more in the Obama years. It has the right-wing politics of the rest of the Deep South with fewer African-Americans than other Deep South states to counter it, making it one of the most inelastic Republican states in the country. Romney got nearly 90% of the white vote in 2012 and I suspect Trump will do just about as well this year with whites, but without Obama on the ballot I suspect black turnout will crater, meaning Trump's overall margin will grow. Prediction: Trump by 29 (Romney by 22)
Alaska--Very quietly over the years, Alaska's population has seen significant ethnic diversity and as a result, the dominant Republican margins in Presidential elections have shrunk. Republicans will still win easily but it's very hard to predict by how much. Obama had a strong turnout operation that successfully mobilized the friendly Eskimo population in the furthest reaches of the state, but I'm skeptical we'll see such a strong operation this year. Plus, third-party Gary Johnson looms large in highly libertarian Alaska and could really be distorting. Prediction: Trump by 19 (Romney by 15)
Arizona--The Grand Canyon State has remained stubbornly Republican in the last 20 years despite demographic changes that typically favor Democrats, primarily because the upscale white retirees moving there now are much more conservative than those of a generation ago. Nonetheless, the state is on the periphery of the battleground this year for two reasons....Hispanics and Mormons. The fast-growing Hispanic population has long been poised to turn Arizona blue (or at least purple) and given their alleged fury with Trump are supposed to be mobilized in unprecedented numbers this year. I'll believe it when I see it. More promising for Democrats is Trump's unpopularity among Mormons (including AZ Senator Jeff Flake who refuses to vote for him), one of the most reliably Republican demographics in the country. Even if few Mormons go so far as to support Hillary, if significant numbers vote third-party, it'll bleed votes that Trump depends upon to win the the state. In a perfect storm I could foresee this playing out as planned for Democrats, but I suspect they'll still fair decisively short in 2016. Prediction: Trump by 6 (Romney by 9)
Arkansas--Just three Presidential elections ago, Arkansas was a swing state. Wrap your mind around that as we fast forward to 2016 when the state's former first lady is poised to see it become one of her worst states in the country....a state I suspect she'd have won in 2008 if she was the nominee. They hate Obama in Arkansas, and it's affected the state's perception of the Democratic Party across the board. And while Arkansas' black population is only about 17%, expect turnout to crater among blacks and for Hillary to underperform even the hated Obama. Worse yet for Hillary, Donald Trump is a perfect ideological fit for the populist state and will probably win over most of the last few Yellow Dog Democrats. Prediction: Trump by 31 (Romney by 24)
California--I suspect most regions of the country see weaker performances for Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama, but the exception to that rule should be the West Coast. California in particular should be a demographic perfect storm of white liberals, nonwhites, and Orange County-style country club Republicans not interested in Trump's populism. The big question though is turnout. Given that the state will not be competitive in the Presidential race and has a Democrat vs. Democrat Senate race, I could see a dramatic decline in turnout compared to 2012 that could ultimately mean little to no popular vote margin of difference for Hillary versus Obama four years ago. Prediction: Hillary by 26 (Obama by 22)
Colorado--The first battleground state on this alphabetical list is slipping away as a battleground state as it has by this point trended Democrat to the point that the Dems are favored most cycles. Making matters worse for Trump this year, the state is a demographic perfect storm for Hillary with its large numbers of center-left white college-educated suburbanites, a rising Hispanic population, and a Mormon population in the western part of the state that's likely to underperform for Trump. Polls have been quite a bit stronger for Hillary this year than they were for Obama in 2012 and I suspect those polls will hold. Republicans have a strong rising star in Senator Cory Gardner and if the GOP is smart enough to put him on a national ticket in the years ahead, the state of Colorado would be in play again. Outside of that, it's likely Colorado will be a blue state in most future cycles. Prediction: Hillary by 8 (Obama by 5)
Connecticut--There have been some disturbing tea leaves to read throughout the Midwest and northeast showing a mass migration of working-class whites north of Mason-Dixon line drifting to Trump. Connecticut has a smaller white working-class population than most northeastern states but I suspect it's still enough to soften Hillary's margin compared to Obama's 2012 numbers, particularly in the more rural eastern portion of the state. We could well be looking at a Connecticut map where some of the richest jurisdictions in the country like Greenwich and New Canaan go for Hillary while blue-collar New London and Norwich go Trump. Prediction: Hillary by 14 (Obama by 18)
Delaware--Obama probably got a bit of an extra bounce in 2008 and 2012 by having native son Joe Biden as his running mate, but Delaware is still a strong demographic match for Hillary with a combination of upscale suburbanites who think and vote similarly to the left-trending Philadelphia suburbs on the other side of the river along with a good-sized black population. I'm guessing it'll be a pretty status quo cycle here. Prediction: Hillary by 18 (Obama by 19)
District of Columbia--There are two competing themes here. Almost nobody who works in the federal bureaucracy and lives in D.C. has any interest in Donald Trump being President, so I could even see some of the 7% of D.C. residents who voted for Romney in 2012 flipping to Hillary this year. On the other hand, the plurality of the population in the District of Columbia is African-American, and it's hard to believe they'll turn out in comparable numbers for Hillary than Obama, meaning the margin is likely to decline a tick. Prediction: Hillary by 82 (Obama by 85)
Florida--The Sunshine State seems poised to be in a permanent state of diverging coalitions with white retirees and white working-class natives trending heavily to the Republicans while the fast-rising Puerto Rican population and native-born Cuban-American population trending Democrat. The fallout in the immediate future is likely to be Democrats having the edge in Presidential cycles and Republicans having the advantage in lower-turnout midterms. Given that this is a Presidential cycle and GOP nominee Donald Trump is wildly unpopular with Hispanics, including the Cubans who were a monolithic bloc of reliable GOP voters just a couple of cycles ago, Republicans will be in a particularly tough spot this year. Beyond that, the Jewish seniors in Palm Beach and Broward Counties were a bit cool towards Obama in both of his runs but should have less pause in voting for Hillary this year. With all that in mind, the polls showing narrow Hillary leads in Florida will probably hold and she'll outperform Obama's very narrow 2012 win in the state. Prediction: Hillary by 3 (Obama by 1)
Georgia--Aside from the Pacific Coast, the New South (coastal southeastern states) may well be another place where Hillary could see some gains versus Obama because of demographics. In Georgia in particular, the black population is soaring, which by itself is moving Georgia closer to purple state status. Beyond that though, both the upscale and downscale white population was pretty locked in for Romney to the point where it's hard to imagine Hillary having much room for further decline. In fact, the more cosmopolitan suburban whites in metro Atlanta are probably some of the prime examples of potential Romney-Hillary voters. Unfortunately for Hillary I suspect this will be offset some by declining turnout rates among blacks and college students, preventing her from getting the perfect storm needed to win Georgia or even from getting particularly close. Prediction: Trump by 6 (Romney by 8)
Hawaii--While it's a pretty certain bet that Hillary Clinton will win Hawaii's four electoral votes this year based on the state's voting history and partisan advantage, the margin she gets will be one of election night's biggest mysteries. Since it was Obama's de facto home state, he pulled in enormous 70+% margins in both 2008 and 2012. Hillary won't do that well. But in 2004, John Kerry got a surprisingly weak 54% there. I suppose it's possible Hillary could do that badly but it would surprise me. My guess is the margin falls pretty much exactly in the middle of those extremes and she does somewhere in the 62-63% range. Prediction: Hillary by 25 (Obama by 43)
Idaho--Here's another tough one. The Interior West, particularly the northern states of the region, has seen very little polling. It's pretty obvious that Idaho will not be Hillary country but is Trump their guy? Idaho has the second-largest Mormon population in the country and Trump is very unpopular with them, raising the prospect that third-party Gary Johnson and fourth-party Mormon conservative Evan McMullin could slim down Trump's margin compared to that of Romney. Let's say because of the splintering of the non-Hillary vote that she ends up doing a tick better in the head to head versus Trump. Prediction: Trump by 30 (Romney by 33)
Illinois--Another interesting one. At one level, the upscale Chicago suburbs and exurbs are exactly the kind of place where a lot of Romney voters are likely to flip to Hillary rather than vote for Trump. On the other hand, the long-standing realignment of downstate Illinois is almost certain to cancel out whatever gains Obama gets in metropolitan Chicago. The working-class white vote will swing hard to Trump and, coupled with smaller black turnout and college student turnout, stands poised to flip the vast majority of Obama holdouts downstate to the red side. The worst-case scenario for Hillary is if the Chicago suburbs don't come out for her as expected. She'll still win the state handily, but could cost Tammy Duckworth the Senate seat pick-up due to the lack of coattails. I stand by my expectation that Hillary will do well in Chicago's upscale suburbs though. Prediction: Hillary by 16 (Obama by 17)
Indiana--Always a Republican state, Indiana's flirtation with Democrats in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 Presidential race seems like a lifetime ago now as the state has reverted to its Republican roots big-time. At one level, it seemed like the 2012 numbers probably represented the new baseline in the state, solidly Republican but not as hard-core GOP as it was in the Bush years and before. This year, however, Trump's appeal among working-class whites combined with native son Mike Pence sharing a ticket with him is likely to boost the Republican margins closer to what we saw in the Bush years. The fact that the Carrier air conditioner plant that Trump has held up as a bloody T-shirt for his trade demagoguery is in Indiana is also a feather in his cap. Prediction: Trump by 15 (Romney by 10)
Iowa--Living in Iowa, I've been bombarded by millions of dollars worth of Hillary Clinton ads that were until recently unanswered by the Trump campaign. The return on Hillary's investment thus far from these ads? The worst performance in any 2012 Obama state and a decisive Trump lead in the last few major polls. Even in the weeks after the Democratic convention when polls showed Hillary up 8-10 points nationally, she was still lagging dramatically in Iowa, up 2-3 points. Trump's 7-8-point leads came at the peak of Trump's mid-September comeback, but it's still very clear that Hillary has a huge problem in Iowa. There have been plenty of indications in past primaries that Iowans are just not that fond of Hillary, and couple that with the Trump campaign's direct appeal to the blue-collar union voters who make up the Democratic party's base vote in eastern Iowa who held out very nicely for Obama in 2012 and it goes a long way to confirming my prediction last spring that Iowa would be a Trump state. It'll be interesting to see if the latest major problems in Trump's campaign have changed this dynamic, and a new poll coming out Saturday afternoon should be quite telling, but right now I'm sticking with my original call and predicting a Trump win. Prediction: Trump by 2 (Obama by 6)
Kansas--There was some polling a couple of months ago showing Trump leading by only mid-single digits in this crimson red redoubt in the heart of the Plains. Don't buy it. There are some indications that center-right Kansas City suburbanites might be unusually strong for Hillary this year, but we saw similar polls in 2014 suggesting Republican Senator Pat Roberts and Governor Sam Brownback were about to be thrown out. Both prevailed decisively as I suspect Trump will. And Trump will probably do just as well as Romney in the rest of the state, holding his losses to a minimum. Prediction: Trump by 19 (Romney by 22)
Kentucky--The Democratic collapse in Appalachia will continue in 2016. There will be next to nothing that goes Hillary's way in Kentucky. The Yellow Dog Democrats in west Kentucky that already flipped to the GOP will only get redder. The formerly indigo blue coal counties of east Kentucky that already flipped to the GOP will only get redder in lieu of Hillary's "putting a lot of coal miners out of business" comment. And even the union town of Louisville, basically the last Democratic bastion left in Kentucky, will probably see some of its Democratic coalition splinter based on Trump's phony blue-collar populism. A bright red state moves yet again more bright red. Prediction: Trump by 30 (Romney by 23)
Louisiana--Crazy to think that in the 1990s Bill Clinton won Louisiana handily....twice. In 1996, he won the state by double digits. Those days are over and the new baseline for Presidential elections in Louisiana is probably something like a 20-point Republican win, as the formerly swing-ish Cajun vote has swung hard-right and stayed there while the coastal oil influence has turned even more people into Republicans and tens of thousands of African-Americans left the state following Hurricane Katrina. The state should swing even further right in 2016 as Donald Trump is the exact sort of populist brew that will play in the Pelican State and black turnout will likely plummet without Obama on the ballot. Prediction: Trump by 23 (Romney by 17)
Maine--From the beginning of this general election cycle, there were some indications that Maine was very likely to see a major shift to Trump after two landslide Obama wins in 2008 and 2012. And while I never considered it at the outset, it makes sense as Maine, particularly northern Maine, has more working-class whites even than Iowa and a more populist Republican nominee would have tremendous appeal to them, as evidenced by prior victories by offbeat (to put it as complimentary as possible) Governor Paul Le Page who defied everybody's expectations and got re-elected in 2014. While polling has generally shown Hillary with a modest statewide lead, there's another wrinkle in that Maine allocates its electoral votes to the winners of Congressional districts. Hillary will get two of four electoral states for winning statewide and a third electoral vote for a likely big win in the Portland-centric district in the southern part of the state, but every bit of polling evidence has shown her trailing in the blue-collar northern Maine district, and in some cases decisively. I now suspect Maine will split its electoral vote distribution for the first time in the state's history (Gore won the northern Maine district by about 500 votes in 2000 and kept the split from happening that year). Prediction: Hillary by 7 (Obama by 16) (*ME-02 Trump by 5) (*ME-02 Obama by 10)
Maryland--I was shocked when a Republican took advantage of an electoral perfect storm and won Maryland's gubernatorial race in 2014 because I didn't believe that the state was winnable for a Republican any longer given its current demographics. Blacks make up 30% of the population and educated white liberals are abundant throughout the D.C. suburbs. That would be enough to make life impossible for a typical Republican in a Presidential race but this year Trump will face additional headwinds with the desire for continuity and predictability in the way Washington works amongst the many federal workers throughout the state. Even the conservative ones who voted Romney are less likely to want to gamble on Trump's brand of "change" this time around, meaning I think there's room for Hillary to grow even compared to Obama in Maryland. The wild card is turnout slippage among blacks and a huge shift to the right in the state's rural Eastern Shore. Prediction: Hillary by 28 (Obama by 26)
Massachusetts--Most people assume Massachusetts is one of the epicenters of American liberalism, but the state is slowly and quietly experiencing some of the same demographic sorting seen in Middle America. The working-class white regions in the central part of the state and the outlying Boston and Providence exurbs have been voting Republican in more and more elections. None of the state's 14 counties have gone Republican in the last six Presidential cycles, but this year I predict at least two and possibly four of them will. It will still be a Hillary blowout, but I suspect a lot of people will be shocked to see Trump's degree of inroads compared to previous GOP nominees. Prediction: Hillary by 18 (Obama by 24)
Michigan--Trump's appeal to working-class whites was the reason the blue state of Michigan was placed on the list of battleground states in 2016, although Trump has never really gotten the needed traction to win the state and trailed in all Michigan polls even when he was neck-and-neck nationwide. I suspect the unpopularity of Governor Rick Snyder and the state's GOP legislature is helping Hillary's cause in Michigan and keeping some of the center-left white union guys on board even though Hillary is probably not their cup of tea. The positive consequences of the auto bailout are also probably still keeping the Democratic legacy vote afloat better in Michigan than most other Midwestern states. Speaking of legacy votes, Romney's familial affiliation with Michigan where his dad was Governor probably helped him trim away some of Obama's advantage in the state, particularly in the more rural northern reaches of Michigan less affected by Obama's popular auto bailout, so it'll be interesting to see what way those areas go in 2016. Overall I suspect just a little slippage for Hillary compared to Obama. Prediction: Hillary by 7 (Obama by 9)
Minnesota--Even though the limited number of public polls in my home state have been showing decisive Hillary leads the entire general election cycle, it's been understood that there's some sorting going on with the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area, including a number of Republican exurbs, are propping out Hillary while she collapses in outstate Minnesota, particularly in the DFL stronghold of the Iron Range, a bastion of blue-collar whites who have been economic Democrats for generations but are drawn to Trump's promises to rebuild the American steel industry. This sorting pattern may not end up being as pronounced as predicted but if there is Democratic slippage throughout outstate Minnesota, one of the few states where Democrats still have a baseline of support in rural areas, then it portends rough sledding ahead for the state as I suspect if Hillary wins, Democrats are gonna have a much harder time getting those blue-collar outstate voters back than the Republicans will have in getting Romney voters from exurban Minneapolis back. Either way, Hillary should win Minnesota decisively in November. Prediction: Hillary by 6 (Obama by 8)
Mississippi--The 2012 election was a window into what the best-case scenario is for Democrats in the state of Mississippi for a Presidential race as black turnout exceeded white turnout and Romney was held to only a 11-point win. My guess is that plenty of working-class whites weren't enthused with Romney--and perhaps unwilling to vote for a Mormon specifically--and sat out the election. These voters are far more likely to favor Trump over Romney while black turnout will probably slump without Obama on the ticket, suggesting Mississippi reverts to its usual margins in 2016. Prediction: Trump by 17 (Romney by 11)
Missouri--Excited Democrats thought back in the spring that Trump would be such an easy target that Hillary had a good chance at picking up Missouri. That was never gonna happen given the degree to which white working-class-heavy Missouri has trended Republican proportional to the country a little more each cycle going back to the mid-90s. And Trump's blue-collar populism is a far better fit for Missouri conservatives than Romney's country club Republicanism, meaning Trump will likely improve upon Romney's impressive 10-point victory. The only wild card is the degree to which center-right suburbanites in Kansas City and St. Louis stay in the GOP fold. If a significant percentage flip to Hillary it could offset some of Trump's gains, but I suspect that will be less of a factor in suburban Missouri than most of the country. Prediction: Trump by 13 (Romney by 10)
Montana--We've seen very little polling in the northern Plains and Rocky Mountain states, making Montana a real wild card. I'm pretty sure they're not Hillary fans and they also don't have the Mormon influence other Rocky Mountain states do that are depressing Trump's numbers. Plus, the blue-collar pedigree of Montana's Democratic-leaning locales such as Butte and Anaconda would seem to suggest Trump is likely to poach some traditionally Democratic votes. Couple that with a likely turnout decline on college campuses and Indian reservations and I think Trump is poised to make some serious gains over Romney in Montana. Prediction: Trump by 22 (Romney by 14)
Nebraska--I frequently quip that Republican margins in the bright red state of Nebraska have gotten smaller in the past 20 years even as the state has become more reliably Republican. This used to be a two-party state if conservative Democrats played their cards right but those days are over. However, the state's population center of Omaha has gotten more competitive in recent cycles. And that's the one area of ambiguity with Nebraska this year as, like Maine, the state allocates its electoral votes according to Congressional district winners. Donald Trump is all but guaranteed four electoral votes, but there's a possibility that Hillary could pick off enough suburban Omaha Romney voters to score one electoral vote, just as Obama did by narrowly winning the Omaha district in 2008. I think she's gonna come up short by a few points though. Prediction: Trump by 23 (Romney by 22) *Trump by 3 in NE-02 (*Romney by 6)
Nevada--There have been 49 states this election cycle that have voted exactly as I predicted they would at the beginning of the general election campaign cycle.....and then there's Nevada. It seemed pretty obvious in 2012 that the state was moving out of the "battleground" and would be leaning Democrat moving forward as it's heavily unionized with a fast-growing nonwhite population that made up 38% of the electorate in 2012. Not so fast, Nevadans are saying this cycle as Donald Trump is showing surprising strength in the polls, even narrowly leading in them a few weeks back. I laughed at the notion that Trump's background as a casino baron was giving him some bonus points among Nevada voters, particularly he drove his Atlantic City casinos into bankruptcy, but there's some indication that it might be happening. It's still hard to figure out exactly what's going on here, as Nevada's "cow counties" are heavily Mormon which would suggest even more headwinds for Trump based on demographic trends seen thus far. For years know, the Democrats' wild card in Nevada has been the "Reid machine", the army of SEIU members that come out for Democrats on election day and vastly outperform the polling. That's been the case going back nearly a decade in Nevada politics and I suspect it will come into play this year as well, and combining that with Hillary's surge in polling in the last couple weeks generally, Hillary should pull it out rather decisively but still not the kind of margin that she should be getting given the demographics. Prediction: Hillary by 4 (Obama by 7)
New Hampshire--The voting patterns in New England are diverging some this year with typically swing-state New Hampshire appearing to trend Hillary's direction while blue-state Maine is moving Trump's direction, perhaps on top of a loss of blue-collar white attrition in the southern New England states that are less frequently polled. But New Hampshire's demographics favor Hillary this year as the state's conservative base tends to be libertarian-leaning and college-educated, and thus not receptive to Trump. It remains to be seen whether more working-class areas in northern New Hampshire follow Maine's lead and move heavily towards Trump but the upscale Boston exurbs in southeast New Hampshire where Massachusetts residents are known to flee to avoid Massachusetts taxes are likely to dramatically underperform for Trump this year. The state should be at least as strong for Hillary as Obama in 2012 if not a tick better. Prediction: Hillary by 6 (Obama by 5)
New Jersey--Another state that's being completely ignored this cycle for conventional reasons as it's been trending Democratic for a quarter century now, but where I suspect eyebrows might be raised at Trump's gains among white working-class ethnics. After getting good reviews for his handling of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Obama probably got artificially strong numbers out of Jersey rather than setting a new Democratic baseline. This will still be a decisive Hillary win but I suspect the racial stratification of voting patterns are no less likely to materialize in Jersey than in the industrial Midwest this cycle. Hillary by 12 (Obama by 18)
New Mexico--Libertarian Gary Johnson used to be New Mexico's Governor and it was naturally his best state in 2012. He'll likely do above his national baseline there this year as well and potentially scramble the margin of victory outcomes for winner. New Mexico is majority-minority and even though polling has been scarce to nonexistent, it's a safe bet Hillary wins here decisively. But does Johnson take more away from Hillary or Trump in his home state? That's a big question mark for me and makes this one tough to predict, meaning I'll circle the wagons around the 2012 race margin as a reasonable baseline expectation. Prediction: Hillary by 9 (Obama by 10)
New York--The media scoffs about Trump's claims that he might win New York. He won't, but he's on to something that the Trump persona will have more appeal to white New Yorkers upstate and in metro NYC than any recent prior Republican nominee. And sure enough, the one tea leaf we've been provided showed that Long Island counties Nassau and Suffolk, which have both gone Democratic in the last five Presidential elections, are currently polling small leads for Trump. Hillary might trim her losses some given that she's the state's former U.S. Senator, but I still expect working-class redoubts of upstate New York like Buffalo, Rochester, and Binghamton to produce much smaller margins of victory for Hillary or perhaps even flip to Trump. And again, the media who believe white working-class losses will be primarily confined to the Industrial Midwest are likely to be surprised on election night when it hits their own backyard in New York. Prediction: Hillary by 20 (Obama by 27)
North Carolina--Polling currently indicates that Hillary has a small lead in North Carolina, which is pretty incredible when considering how conservative the state was 10 years ago. But Obama's comparative resilience even in narrow defeat in 2012 foreshadowed the state's trajectory being increasingly challenging for Republicans. Racial diversity is only modestly accounting for the shift here but the biggest factor is the state's metro areas are filling up with liberal whites transplanted from the northeast, leaving quite a culture clash with the remnants of Jesse Helms' version of North Carolina that still seems to come out in numbers sufficient to win in midterm cycles. Ultimately, I'm standing by my original prediction from the spring that Trump ekes out a win here, aided by diminished turnout by African-Americans and college students. Prediction: Trump by >1 (Romney by 2)
North Dakota--Expect big movement to Trump here, particularly with the state mired in a slumping oil economy and having inherited tens of thousands of new oil workers who are amongst the most conservative voters in the country. The only question mark is whether upscale and white-collar Fargo, the largest city in North Dakota, continues to follow national demographic trends and flips back to the Democrats after going narrowly Romney in 2012. Even if Hillary can get a blue Fargo, the shift to Trump in the rest of the state should more than cancel it out. Prediction: Trump by 27 (Romney by 20)
Ohio--The most consequential swing state of most election cycles dating back generations has lost some of its significance in 2016, which is good news for Hillary for two reasons. First, it means other states like Colorado and Virginia have gotten bluer and created a path to victory for her that doesn't involve Ohio. And second, Hillary is not doing very well in Ohio! After Trump's rough couple of weeks, Hillary has returned to margin-of-error one and two-point leads in a couple of Ohio polls, but throughout September Trump was leading in Ohio rather decisively. And given the number of working-class whites in Ohio who held out for Obama because of a smart campaign and a corporate raider opponent like Romney, I always figured Ohio would be extremely vulnerable for Democrats this year and moving forward, and the anecdotal evidence suggests Trump's populist pitch is resonating among traditional Democrats in northern Ohio. This may be offset some by Hillary picking up traditional Republicans in upscale Columbus suburbs but I still think Trump maintains an advantage here. Whether that sticks in the aftermath of Trump's latest possible death spiral remains to be seen, but I'm standing by it for now. Prediction: Trump by 2 (Obama by 3)
Oklahoma--The Sooner state has always been very conservative but a strong case can be made that in 2016, it's the most conservative state in the country, a bastion of working-class whites where the last Yellow Dog Democrat holdouts flipped en masse to Republicans during the Obama years and won't be coming back. Trump should fit the populist conservative voters of Oklahoma like a glove and may very well exceed Romney's impressive margins this year. Prediction: Trump by 38 (Romney by 34)
Oregon--Moving from a red state that keeps getting redder to a blue state that keeps getting bluer, Oregon has really solidified as a Portland-centric Democratic stronghold in the last few cycles and Trump seems like a particularly ill-suited fit for the state. I said in my California prediction that I suspected the Pacific Coast would be one of the few regions of the country where Hillary would outperform Obama and I will double down on that prediction with Oregon. Prediction: Hillary by 17 (Obama by 13)
Pennsylvania--In 2012, Mitt Romney poured resources into Pennsylvania at the last minute while Obama held his fire, probably giving Republicans a best-case scenario given their candidate but Obama still won decisively. Romney's gains seemed to come largely from the most upscale of the otherwise Democratic-trending Philadelphia suburbs. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, this demographic of voters in the Philly suburbs is a disaster for him in 2016 and polls indicate Hillary is running up the score to unprecedented levels in the region. Those numbers alone should be good enough for Hillary to win the state decisively, but she'll ending up needing it because there's plenty of indications that Trump is running away with it in western Pennsylvania steel country, which was still heavily Democratic as recently as 10 years ago. The wild card area of the state should be the Lehigh Valley and the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre area in northeastern Pennsylvania, a white working class area demographically similar to western Pennsylvania but which has still been going strong for Democrats in recent cycles. I don't know how that area will go but I suspect the swapping of coalitions will make Pennsylvania a wash in 2016. Prediction: Hillary by 6 (Obama by 5)
Rhode Island--Over the last half dozen cycles, perhaps no other state in the country has been bluer than Rhode Island on average, going for the Democrat by more than 20 points going back to 1992, but the state's significant numbers of blue-collar Italians and Irish make it a particularly ripe target for Trump to dramatically trim Democratic margins. Hillary win still win Rhode Island, but I suspect it'll be with the softest margin for a Democrat since Michael Dukakis. Prediction: Hillary by 16 (Obama by 28)
South Carolina--There's been a fair bit of polling in South Carolina showing Trump putting up weak, low-single-digit margins. For the same reason as Georgia, this doesn't surprise me. South Carolina has more college whites than the inland South states do, relatively moderate conservatives for whom Trump doesn't have much to offer. And since nearly all working-class whites in South Carolina are already Republicans, Trump doesn't have significant potential for gains. The wild card is the 30+% black population and how substantial of a turnout decline Hillary has with them. I suspect it will be enough to cut Trump's loss margin. Prediction: Trump by 8 (Romney by 10)
South Dakota--The southern of the two Dakotas doesn't have the oil industry presence driving it to the right at the speed North Dakota does, but it will still be Trump country in a big way and if turnout collapses on Indian reservations and in college towns, it will only be more painful for Hillary. Just like Fargo in North Dakota, South Dakota has its own white-collar town full of college whites in Sioux Falls. If center-right Romney voters in Sioux Falls move to Hillary out of fear of Trump, it could soften the blow a little for Hillary but it's still gonna be a blowout. Prediction: Trump by 22 (Romney by 18)
Tennessee--For decades, Tennessee was a swing state, but there were signs in the 90s it was trending sharply conservative and those signs played out every bit as strongly as expected if not more so. Having a smaller black population to counter the loss of the white working-class majority, Tennessee has become one of the most conservative and brightest-red states in the country, with Memphis and Nashville basically being the only blue islands left after the last of the rural Yellow Dog Democrats realigned in 2008. Trump is exactly the populist conservative that will play in Tennessee and the state can expected to keep getting redder this year. Prediction: Trump by 25 (Romney by 21)
Texas--There's likely to be diverging trendlines in Texas this year, as the fast-diversifying cities shift significantly to Hillary both because of larger numbers of minority voters and center-right suburbanites drawing a line over Trump, but that will be countered by the rural areas moving even further to Trump. If we're to believe that Hispanic turnout finally ticks up a little based on an energized anti-Trump vote, which I'm definitely NOT convinced of, then Texas may have reached a tipping point where its lopsided GOP margins trim down some. Unless turnout is not as bad as that of a midterm, Hillary should do at least a tick better than Obama, even though the state's trendline away from the GOP is likely to be slower than the Democrats' expectations, probably by about 30 years. Prediction: Trump by 14 (Romney by 16)
Utah--There's a crazy amount of uncertainty in the typically predictable state of Utah this year. Mormons represent a supermajority of the state's population but they're notoriously cool to Trump to the point where some were legitimately wondering if right-wing Utah would be a swing state this year. It won't--not even close--but a new wrinkle has been added to the dynamic with fourth-party "movement conservative" candidate Evan McMullin, who happens to be a Mormon. One poll has showed McMullin pulling in something like 10% in the state, and his protest vote could really serve to drain Trump's would-be margin as almost all of McMullin's voters are likely to be conservative Romney voters. Between McMullin and Johnson, I'd imagine 15% of Utah's vote this year will be third-party, probably the highest in the nation. Even with that level of non-Trump vote, Trump will still win by a landslide. Prediction: Trump by 25 (Romney by 50)
Vermont--The state that had longest streak of Republican voting in American history (from the early 1800s to 1960, and then again from 1968 to 1988) has morphed over the last 20 years into the nation's most liberal state. While it's more than 90% white, it's a hippie-like environment where Trump is not likely to have any more appeal than Romney did, unlike the rest of New England. Prediction: Hillary by 36 (Obama by 37)
Virginia--It was clear around 2000 that the long-standing Republican stronghold of Virginia was softening, with the suburban Washington, DC, counties in northern Virginia leading the way to the coming realignment. The state officially flipped in 2008 when Obama decisively won and it hasn't turned back since, with Democrats now dominated every statewide and federal office in the state. Given its history, Virginia remained on the periphery of the 2016 battleground but particularly with Donald Trump as the GOP nominee, it became quickly clear that Virginia would be staying blue in a major way. Aside from growing racial diversity, the rising number of federal workers in northern Virginia and military contractors in the Tidewater region of southeast Virginia prefer policy continuity and don't care to gamble on a change agent like Trump. Couple all of that with the fact that running mate Tim Kaine is a former Governor and current Senator from Virginia and it explains why Hillary has led decisively in Virginia all season long and will win handily on November 8. Prediction: Hillary by 8 (Obama by 4)
Washington--Another already-blue Pacific Northwest state that's likely to move further blue this cycle. Hard to believe Washington was a swing state as recently as 2000 because it's unthinkable a Republican could win it now. Prediction: Hillary by 19 (Obama by 15)
West Virginia--If it's hard to believe that Washington was a swing state in 2000, it's even harder to believe that West Virginia was as well as the two states have polarized about as far as two states can in the 16 years since. A general cultural shift, along with union-busting, was part of the original rightward shift of West Virginia but more recently it's been the Democrats' position on coal, the lifeblood of West Virginia's struggling economy, and as the coal economy contracts, West Virginians have become ever more hostile towards Democrats, particularly those who let it slip that she plans to "put a lot of coal companies and miners out of business" as Hillary said. I suspect Democrats will long for good old days of Obama's numbers this year as the state races even further to Republicans, particularly with Trump making the reopening of coal mines a centerpiece of his campaign. Prediction: Trump by 42 (Romney by 27)
Wisconsin--Most election cycles, Wisconsin and Iowa track pretty closely but that has not been happening this year as Iowa has been Trump's strongest battleground state for months now while Wisconsin has remained pretty strongly in the Democratic fold, with polls showing the state sticking with Hillary even amidst her lowest point this cycle. It'll be interesting to see the coalitions though as I could see Hillary doing a little better than Obama in the upscale and crimson red Milwaukee suburbs while Trump could well be doing better than Romney did in working-class northern Wisconsin. Either way, I suspect it'll be a wash and the margins will be similar to 2012. Prediction: Hillary by 5 (Obama by 7)
Wyoming--In the last 20 years, Wyoming has rivaled Utah as the nation's most Republican state. On top of the friendly demographics of cowboys and Mormons, Wyoming is also now the nation's largest coal-producing state, adding another element to the GOP coalition pushing the state further to the right. Despite soft support among the state's Mormon population, Trump should more than make up for that with heightened support from coal voters, coupled with softer support for Hillary in college towns and build his margins compared to Romney. Prediction Trump by 45 (Romney b 42)
Back in the spring, my first prediction of this general election contest was 308 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 230 electoral votes for Donald Trump. My amended forecast is nearly identical except that I've tipped the one electoral vote from the northern congressional district of Maine from Hillary's column to Trump's, making my new calculus 307-230 in Hillary's favor. Considering how terrible of a candidate Trump is at every conceivable level, that's not exactly a confidence-filling margin for the future of the republic and leaves the country open to further demagogic manipulation by future Presidential aspirants in 2020 or future cycles. The fact that the country is experiencing peace and prosperity yet still is a hair's breath away, on some days, from electing Donald Trump Presidency makes it really terrifying what's coming the next time the country is either on war footing or in a recession.
This latest Trump scandal poses an interesting time for me to make these final predictions. The conventional wisdom is that Trump will suffer a death spiral and turnout will suffer as a result, but he's defied expectations before and I'm not convinced that his base will follow the establishment rats fleeing his ship en masse. I highly doubt that enough voters will be deterred by this revelation to turn the race into a 15-point Hillary landslide or anything of the like. And furthermore, Hillary had a scandal of her own unfold quietly last evening as well with more hacked e-mails from her campaign by WikiLeaks revealing language from her well-guarded speeches made to Wall Street firms espousing policy positions quite different from those she's taken as a Presidential candidate. She's already wildly unpopular for this exact sort of two-faced behavior and now has given voters who already don't like her one more reason not to vote for her. Now that voters who planned to hold their nose and vote for Hillary just to stop Trump are being told that Trump has been put away for good by his latest scandal, that could further increase their likelihood of just staying home on election night, greatly reducing Hillary's ability to run up the score and to provide coattails to downballot Democrats. Furthermore, WikiLeaks has promised multiple damaging revelations against Hillary. They've delivered so far and may well again with more damaging information about Hillary that doesn't get lost in the news cycle as badly as this last one did. And, of course, more Trump scandals could yet emerge too, particularly since everybody knows he always talks about women the way he did in that "Access Hollywood" video.
The fact that so many things can yet go awry this election cycle makes it the most unpredictable in my lifetime. It would be thrilling if every new revelation wasn't another black mark against the character of these two knuckleheads who were nominated by their parties. Overall, I think they'll end up canceling each other out and submerging turnout to a nearly 100-year low with the final outcome not much different than what the polling average has shown since spring.
posted by Mark at 4:38 PM
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