Poll Closing Times And What To Expect When They Do
Having lived through many election cycles over the years, I've identified a number of patterns in the state-by-state results and decided it would be fun to make some predictions and see how they play out based on past precedent based on poll closings. While the polls close at 6:00 eastern in Indiana and Kentucky, the earliest poll closings in the country, the precincts in the central time zones of those two states don't close for another hour so I'll include them in the 6:00 central time zone poll closings, but certainly those will be the states with earliest available vote returns streaming in, so I'll start with them....
Indiana--Polls are all over the place on Indiana's level of competitiveness at the Presidential level, but it seems likely that Trump will win it. I don't anticipate a call immediately at poll closing time though, and if there is an immediate call for Trump at 6:00 central, it's a good sign for him that he's consolidated support among white Midwesterners and will be competitive nationally. And in the Indiana Senate race, expect a long night of counting votes before the race is called for either Evan Bayh or Todd Young.
Kentucky--This will be an easy one. As soon as 6:00 central comes, the Bluegrass State will be called for Donald Trump and Senator Rand Paul. The first precincts in the country to report are the coal counties of east Kentucky, so at least at 6:00 central, you can be assured that Trump will have a national popular vote lead.
Other 6:00 Central Poll Closings
Georgia--The Peach State is rumored to be at least somewhat competitive at the Presidential level this year so expect it to hang out for a few hours with no call. If the state is called for Trump within an hour, it's not a good sign for Hillary in regards to turnout among African Americans, a concern for them in key swing states based on early voting. If she can hold off the Trump call in Georgia until after 8:00, it's a good sign. Republican Senator Johnny Isakson's re-election victory should be declared at poll closing.
New Hampshire--At least in the past, New Hampshire polls have closed at 6:00 central time, and I think that's still the case. Here's another bellwether in terms of how early the race is called. If the state is called quickly for Hillary (and I doubt it'll be TOO quickly) it's a good sign for her, but if it's 9:00 without a call from New Hampshire there's some cause for concern for her, but it should be mentioned the vote count in New Hampshire is typically slow. The extremely tight Senate race in New Hampshire will probably go several hours without a call.
South Carolina--Even in years where Republicans win South Carolina in a blowout, it usually takes nearly an hour before the networks make the call. Not really sure why that is but I expect the same to happen this year since it's widely expected Trump's margin will shrink into single digits in South Carolina. Still, expect a call for Trump within an hour of poll closings and an immediate call for the re-election of Senator Tim Scott.
Vermont--The lone Democratic stronghold among the states with the earliest poll closings, Vermont is very likely to be the only state on the board for Hillary for at least a half hour on the national election map, leading to panic among low-information Democrats every four years when the cumulative electoral vote count is something like 41-3 in favor of the Republicans. Senator Pat Leahy's re-election victory will be declared immediately at 6 p.m. as well.
Virginia--Far and away the most important poll closing at 6:00, Virginia has been a swing state in previous cycles and held out there for hours as the vote gets counted, but it's widely considered a Hillary cinch this year. If that plays out and Hillary wins by double digits, an immediate 6 p.m. call in Virginia is possible. If it is, that's an extremely good sign for Hillary, but I think the media will leave us in a little more suspense and delay the call at least an hour. If it becomes closer than expected though, fair warning that the early vote returns in Virginia come from the Republican strongholds in the rural Shenandoah Valley. The precincts from the Democratic strongholds of northern Virginia almost always come in last. In fact, any race that is close at all usually has the Republican leading with 90% of the vote counted, with the Democrat rallying when the NOVA precincts roll in later in the night. I doubt we'll be waiting till 10:00 for a call in Virginia this year as we do most years though.
6:30 Central Poll Closings
North Carolina--Two extremely important states close their polls at the bottom of the 6:00 hour, and this year North Carolina is arguably more important than Ohio. There will almost assuredly not be a call for either candidate at 6:30, despite what some clueless pundits are telling you in regards to the race being over at 6:30 if Trump loses. But the longer North Carolina hangs out there, the better the news for Trump as Hillary has led in the polls for months. Unless she wins by five points or more, which is a possibility, I can't imagine NC will be called until after 10:00 though. Hillary doesn't need it to win but Trump does, so the race would in fact be over if it was called for Hillary, but if Trump wins it, the Presidential election promises to be quite competitive and make for a very late night. Expect a very long vote count for the state's tight Senate race as well.
Ohio--Every indication points to Trump being favored in Ohio, albeit narrowly. Don't expect a call for several hours after poll closing, and should one come for Trump before 10:00, it's likely a sign of a very close race nationally. Hillary is likely to have a big lead in the early vote which will drop immediately but expect Trump's numbers to creep up as the election day tally is counted, possibly overtaking her. Unfortunately, expect an immediate 6:30 call for Senator Rob Portman's re-election as challenger Ted Strickland's candidacy has proved disastrous.
West Virginia--Two decades ago, you could be sure that when the 6:30 poll closings came around, West Virginia would immediately be called for the Democrat. In 2016, the opposite is true and the state will be one of Trump's best states, called immediately for the orange man. The only suspense in West Virginia will be if the Democrats can hold a competitive gubernatorial race.
7:00 Poll Closing Times
Alabama--I've never been able to understand why, but it seems like the networks delay the call for the crimson red state of Alabama more cycles than not. Typically it hangs out there for an hour or more without a call, which is nuts considering it's one of the most unwinnable states in the country for Democrats these days. So whether Alabama gets called for Trump at 7:00 on Tuesday or not, know that it will without any doubt be called for Trump soon thereafter.
Connecticut--Pretty safe bet that Connecticut will be called for both Hillary and Senator Dick Blumenthal at poll closing time.
Delaware--Hillary and Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Carney should both be declared the winners at poll closing time on Tuesday night.
District of Columbia--The most Democratic jurisdiction in the country will be called at poll closing time for Hillary.
Florida--Most of Florida's polls close at 6:00, but the western edge of the state's panhandle is in the central time zone which closes at 7:00. After the 2000 debacle when the networks erroneously called Florida for Gore at 6:50, 10 minutes before polls even closed in Pensacola, the media is now careful about keeping Florida under wraps until 7:00. But the vote count is already well underway in the 95% of the state where the polls close at 6:00 so there will be some indication of how things are going early on. There's little indication based on early voting though that either candidate will have enough of a lead to call the state any time before 10:00 at the earliest. George W. Bush beat Kerry by 5 points in 2004 and they still waited for 89% of the vote to be counted before calling the race. And even with a 60,000-vote lead, they waited three days before calling Florida for Obama. Expect the same treatment in 2016, with little chance of a call before midnight no matter what's going on nationally.
Illinois--Hillary and Democratic Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth should both be declared winners at poll closing times, making the state the only visible patch of blue on the electoral map visible to the average American at that point in the evening.
Maine--I suspect the state of Maine at large will be called for Hillary at poll closing time, although if the whole state only goes single-digits for Hillary possibly not. However, only three of Maine's four electoral votes will be called that early in the night as the fourth electoral vote from the state is a toss-up and possibly even leans Trump. The fourth electoral vote probably won't be called one way or the other for hours later.
Maryland--Another easy win for Hillary called at poll closing time, most likely with Democratic Senate nominee Chris Van Hollen doing the same.
Massachusetts--Called for Hillary at 7:00.
Michigan--Gore and Obama got the calls in Michigan immediately at poll closing time, but Kerry had to wait till after midnight before they finally called the state for him. Based on recent movement in the polls Trump's direction, I suspect this year will be somewhere in between. I'm betting we wait about an hour before Michigan is called for Hillary.
Mississippi--While Mississippi never gets "close", the monolithically Democratic African-American vote sometimes creates enough hypothetical uncertainty that the state doesn't get called right away. Since I doubt the black vote will be as large in 2016 as it was 2012, it would be pretty silly if they didn't call Mississippi for Trump right away at poll closing time.
Missouri--Even though Missouri has been getting more lopsidedly Republican in the last several cycles, we have yet to see the state be called for Republican nominee in a Presidential election at poll closing time. If recent polls showing Trump winning the state by double-digits hold, 2016 could well be the first time Missouri gets called at 7:00. The much tighter Senate race is likely to be hanging out there for several hours though.
New Jersey--It's not quite the sure thing that other northeastern states are for an immediate call at poll closing, even John Kerry got the 7:00 call in New Jersey while winning the state by only 7 points in 2004, so I'm guessing that streak holds on Tuesday.
Oklahoma--One of Trump's best states will be called for him right away at poll closing time. Senator Jim Lankford also gets the call at 7.
Pennsylvania--Even in 2008, when Obama won Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, the networks still made us wait about 45 minutes before calling Pennsylvania. Difficult to imagine any scenario where they don't make us wait again this year, although I suspect the call comes in at least before 9:00. It's likely to be a longer wait before the tight Senate race is called. The changing Pennsylvania electorate contributes some to the delayed calls. The vote tends to be counted first in the heavily Democratic Philadelphia area giving the Democrats a big early lead in the count, but as the rest of the state gets more and more Republican, it's easy to see why the networks would be more hesitant to make a call before more of the rural vote comes in.
Rhode Island--As recently as 2004, Rhode Island's polls didn't close until 8:00 central (9:00 their time) which was helpful for Democrats to increase their electoral vote tally with an easy victory even as the race moved more into unfriendly Middle American terrain. But they've now moved their poll closing time up to 7:00 so its polls close at the same time as most of its neighbors, always safely in the Democratic camp at poll closing time as it will be again this year.
Tennessee--A long-time swing state that took a sharp right turn last decade and is now a cinch for a call at poll closing time for Trump.
7:30 Poll Closing Times
Arkansas--The only state where the polls close at the bottom of the 7:00 hour was, like Tennessee, a swing state not that long ago. This year it will be one of Trump's best states and will be called right away at 7:30, along with the re-election of Senator John Boozman.
8:00 Poll Closing Times
Arizona--It's only 7:00 in the Mountain Time Zone but this year's newest swing state's polls close at the same time that much of the nation's midsection does. Even in cycles when Republicans win Arizona decisively, which is most of them, the networks usually leave the state hanging out there for at least an hour after poll closing before making a call. This year, even if it proves not to be as close as Hillary once hoped, will likely take at least a couple of hours for the call. I still expect John McCain to get the call either at poll closing time or within a half hour of it.
Colorado--We never get an 8:00 call out of Colorado, even in 2008 when Obama won it by 9 points, and now there's a new wrinkle as the state votes by mail. Given that some ballots won't be rolling in until days after poll closing time, it's very possible we won't have a call in Colorado for a very long time. Considering Hillary is supposed to have a decisive lead, I'm guessing the state will be called by 10:00, but if the race ends up closer than expected, it could well be November 9th before a call is made as was the case in 2014 for the re-election of Governor John Hickenlooper, the state's first experiment with the extremely frustrating vote-by-mail approach. I'll stick my neck out and say that Senator Michael Bennet's re-election is called at poll closing time though.
Kansas--The bright red state of Kansas will be called for Trump and Senator Jerry Moran at 8:00 poll closing time.
Louisiana--Another quick call for Trump, most likely right away at 8:00. Crazy to think this state went double-digits for Bill Clinton 20 years ago.
Minnesota--Despite its reputation as a Democratic stronghold, in the past four election cycles Minnesota has only been called once at poll closing time, and that was in 2008. Part of it is due to the fact that there's been very little early voting in Minnesota compared to other states, although there are signs that may changing. Given the state of the polls, I'm betting that there's not a call at poll closing time but probably one before 9:00, as was the case in 2012.
Nebraska--Four of Nebraska's five electoral votes will likely be called at 8:00, but that fifth vote based out of the Omaha area could hang out there for a while. I have a feeling it'll be called before 11:00 for Trump though.
New Mexico--For some reason, none of the three Southwestern states of Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico have ever been called immediately at poll closing times in the last four Presidential elections, even in 2008 when Obama won New Mexico by 15 points. Particularly with the uncertainty due to former home state Governor Gary Johnson running third-party, I doubt we'll see a poll closing call for Hillary this year either, but I suspect it'll come within an hour.
New York--Now that Rhode Island's polls are closing an hour earlier, New York is the only sure thing for Democrats amongst the 8:00 poll closing states (9:00 Eastern time). Of course it's a big score with 29 electoral votes, and will definitely be called at 8:00 again this year, along with Senator Chuck Schumer's race.
North Dakota--Trump and Senator Hoeven both get the call at 7:00.
South Dakota--It's possible if it's a single-digit race, as it was in 2008, the call for Trump might not come at 8:00, but I suspect Trump is pulling away in South Dakota and gets the early call along with Senator Thune.
Texas--Most of the polls in Texas close at 7:00 central time but the El Paso area is in the mountain time zone and doesn't close till 8:00. Despite rumors of Texas being close this year, expect the call for Trump to come right away at poll closing time.
Wisconsin--Only in 2008 has the winner of Wisconsin been declared at poll closing time, although Obama got the call in less than an hour in 2012. Hillary's numbers appear to be comparable in most polls suggesting a call by or even before 9:00 is possible. A week ago I'd have figured the call for Russ Feingold in the Senate race would have come at poll closing time. Now he's managed to do what Feingold does best and piss away a huge lead, so it's doubtful we'll get a call in that race for hours after polls closed.
Wyoming--The state that is likely Trump's best in the country will be called for him at poll closing time.
9:00 Poll Closing Times
Iowa--The only state west of the Rockies where the polls are still open after 8:00 is the state where I reside. A massive chunk of Iowans (close to a majority) now vote early so the vote count goes reasonably quickly. All signs point to a decisive Trump victory in Iowa but I doubt it will be large enough to call the state right at poll closing time though. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump's is formalized by 10:00 though. Senator Grassley's re-election will be declared at poll closing time.
Montana--Back in 2008, Obama fought McCain to less than three points in typically dark red Montana and the race wasn't called until nearly sunrise the next morning. At Hillary's peak moment of momentum following the release of the "Access Hollywood" tape against Trump, there was speculation Montana could be competitive this year too. It proved out of reach a month ago and is even more so today. Expect a call for Trump in Montana at poll closing time.
Nevada--In previous cycles, Nevada had an insanely slow vote count and, given that elections in the state have mostly been close going back to the early 1990s, it's hung out there into the wee hours of the night without a call. But the state has trended more Democratic in recent cycles and early votes now account for about two-thirds of all Nevada votes cast, which should accelerate the vote count substantially from years past. I suspect wins the state decisively, probably not not dramatically enough to get a call at 9:00, but could easily imagine it called before 10:00. It's far less clear if the competitive open Senate seat gets called anywhere near that early, and my guess is it won't be.
Utah--Anybody who had at anytime in the modern era said that the Beehive State, one of the nation's most Republican, would one day not be called for the Republican Presidential nominee at poll closing time would be laughed out of the room, but this year it seems far more likely than not that Utah will be "too close to call" at 9:00. With native son and third-party conservative spoiler Evan McMullin polling very strong in Utah, there's a legitimate three-way race of the state's six electoral votes. The last two polls I've seen have shown McMullin fading and Republicans going home to Trump, so I suspect the race gets called before 10:00. Senator Mike Lee's re-election will be declared at 9:00 poll closing time though.
10:00 Poll Closing Times
California--For a quarter century now, California has been a cinch for Democratic Presidential nominees and has been called at poll closing time, giving Democrats a (often desperately needed) burst of 55 electoral votes to add to their total. That tradition will definitely continue in 2016, although California is voting by mail for the first time so it'll be interesting to see how that goes in (hopefully) fixing California's typical weekslong process of counting votes.
Hawaii--It's the middle of the afternoon in Hawaii when the polls close even though it's 10 p.m. when it happens in the Midwest. The islands can occasionally be unpredictable, as they were in 2004 when John Kerry only won by single digits, but it seems very likely that Hawaii will be called at poll closing for both Hillary and Senator Brian Schatz.
Idaho--Most of Idaho is in the Mountain Time Zone and the polls close there an hour earlier but the panhandle of Idaho is in the Pacific Time Zone so the call holds off until 10:00 central., but be sure that when the call does come in it will be immediately for Trump.
Oregon--Even though California has just moved to vote-by-mail this cycle, they've been doing it in Washington and Oregon for 20 years now. I have my concerns and frustrations with early voting but there's a good reason for it on the West coast, as there were several prior cycles where a blowout election nationally cratered turnout in the Pacific time zone with devastating downballot consequences. Voting by mail helps ameliorate that risk. Back in the 90s and early 2000s when Washington and Oregon were swing states, it was frustrating because it dramatically delayed the calls (three days for Oregon was called for Gore in 2000) but both states have moved heavily Democratic in the years since and are almost certain to be called at poll closing time in 2016, and in Oregon's case, ditto for the re-election of Senator Ron Wyden.
Washington--See above (Oregon) regarding the Presidential race and likewise for Senator Patty Murray, where both will likely be called at poll closing time.
Midnight Poll Closing
Alaska--Forty-nine states close their polls by 10 p.m. central time but we have to wait two full hours for Alaska's poll closing. There are some gonzo polls out there showing Hillary very competitive in this traditional Republican stronghold but I'm not really buying them and anticipate Trump gets the call at poll closing, likely before at least a few battleground states get called.
Not much to add in terms of closing thoughts here but I'll be very curious to see how closely the evening tracks with my timeline here. Most years, it's pretty predictable.
Indiana--Polls are all over the place on Indiana's level of competitiveness at the Presidential level, but it seems likely that Trump will win it. I don't anticipate a call immediately at poll closing time though, and if there is an immediate call for Trump at 6:00 central, it's a good sign for him that he's consolidated support among white Midwesterners and will be competitive nationally. And in the Indiana Senate race, expect a long night of counting votes before the race is called for either Evan Bayh or Todd Young.
Kentucky--This will be an easy one. As soon as 6:00 central comes, the Bluegrass State will be called for Donald Trump and Senator Rand Paul. The first precincts in the country to report are the coal counties of east Kentucky, so at least at 6:00 central, you can be assured that Trump will have a national popular vote lead.
Other 6:00 Central Poll Closings
Georgia--The Peach State is rumored to be at least somewhat competitive at the Presidential level this year so expect it to hang out for a few hours with no call. If the state is called for Trump within an hour, it's not a good sign for Hillary in regards to turnout among African Americans, a concern for them in key swing states based on early voting. If she can hold off the Trump call in Georgia until after 8:00, it's a good sign. Republican Senator Johnny Isakson's re-election victory should be declared at poll closing.
New Hampshire--At least in the past, New Hampshire polls have closed at 6:00 central time, and I think that's still the case. Here's another bellwether in terms of how early the race is called. If the state is called quickly for Hillary (and I doubt it'll be TOO quickly) it's a good sign for her, but if it's 9:00 without a call from New Hampshire there's some cause for concern for her, but it should be mentioned the vote count in New Hampshire is typically slow. The extremely tight Senate race in New Hampshire will probably go several hours without a call.
South Carolina--Even in years where Republicans win South Carolina in a blowout, it usually takes nearly an hour before the networks make the call. Not really sure why that is but I expect the same to happen this year since it's widely expected Trump's margin will shrink into single digits in South Carolina. Still, expect a call for Trump within an hour of poll closings and an immediate call for the re-election of Senator Tim Scott.
Vermont--The lone Democratic stronghold among the states with the earliest poll closings, Vermont is very likely to be the only state on the board for Hillary for at least a half hour on the national election map, leading to panic among low-information Democrats every four years when the cumulative electoral vote count is something like 41-3 in favor of the Republicans. Senator Pat Leahy's re-election victory will be declared immediately at 6 p.m. as well.
Virginia--Far and away the most important poll closing at 6:00, Virginia has been a swing state in previous cycles and held out there for hours as the vote gets counted, but it's widely considered a Hillary cinch this year. If that plays out and Hillary wins by double digits, an immediate 6 p.m. call in Virginia is possible. If it is, that's an extremely good sign for Hillary, but I think the media will leave us in a little more suspense and delay the call at least an hour. If it becomes closer than expected though, fair warning that the early vote returns in Virginia come from the Republican strongholds in the rural Shenandoah Valley. The precincts from the Democratic strongholds of northern Virginia almost always come in last. In fact, any race that is close at all usually has the Republican leading with 90% of the vote counted, with the Democrat rallying when the NOVA precincts roll in later in the night. I doubt we'll be waiting till 10:00 for a call in Virginia this year as we do most years though.
6:30 Central Poll Closings
North Carolina--Two extremely important states close their polls at the bottom of the 6:00 hour, and this year North Carolina is arguably more important than Ohio. There will almost assuredly not be a call for either candidate at 6:30, despite what some clueless pundits are telling you in regards to the race being over at 6:30 if Trump loses. But the longer North Carolina hangs out there, the better the news for Trump as Hillary has led in the polls for months. Unless she wins by five points or more, which is a possibility, I can't imagine NC will be called until after 10:00 though. Hillary doesn't need it to win but Trump does, so the race would in fact be over if it was called for Hillary, but if Trump wins it, the Presidential election promises to be quite competitive and make for a very late night. Expect a very long vote count for the state's tight Senate race as well.
Ohio--Every indication points to Trump being favored in Ohio, albeit narrowly. Don't expect a call for several hours after poll closing, and should one come for Trump before 10:00, it's likely a sign of a very close race nationally. Hillary is likely to have a big lead in the early vote which will drop immediately but expect Trump's numbers to creep up as the election day tally is counted, possibly overtaking her. Unfortunately, expect an immediate 6:30 call for Senator Rob Portman's re-election as challenger Ted Strickland's candidacy has proved disastrous.
West Virginia--Two decades ago, you could be sure that when the 6:30 poll closings came around, West Virginia would immediately be called for the Democrat. In 2016, the opposite is true and the state will be one of Trump's best states, called immediately for the orange man. The only suspense in West Virginia will be if the Democrats can hold a competitive gubernatorial race.
7:00 Poll Closing Times
Alabama--I've never been able to understand why, but it seems like the networks delay the call for the crimson red state of Alabama more cycles than not. Typically it hangs out there for an hour or more without a call, which is nuts considering it's one of the most unwinnable states in the country for Democrats these days. So whether Alabama gets called for Trump at 7:00 on Tuesday or not, know that it will without any doubt be called for Trump soon thereafter.
Connecticut--Pretty safe bet that Connecticut will be called for both Hillary and Senator Dick Blumenthal at poll closing time.
Delaware--Hillary and Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Carney should both be declared the winners at poll closing time on Tuesday night.
District of Columbia--The most Democratic jurisdiction in the country will be called at poll closing time for Hillary.
Florida--Most of Florida's polls close at 6:00, but the western edge of the state's panhandle is in the central time zone which closes at 7:00. After the 2000 debacle when the networks erroneously called Florida for Gore at 6:50, 10 minutes before polls even closed in Pensacola, the media is now careful about keeping Florida under wraps until 7:00. But the vote count is already well underway in the 95% of the state where the polls close at 6:00 so there will be some indication of how things are going early on. There's little indication based on early voting though that either candidate will have enough of a lead to call the state any time before 10:00 at the earliest. George W. Bush beat Kerry by 5 points in 2004 and they still waited for 89% of the vote to be counted before calling the race. And even with a 60,000-vote lead, they waited three days before calling Florida for Obama. Expect the same treatment in 2016, with little chance of a call before midnight no matter what's going on nationally.
Illinois--Hillary and Democratic Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth should both be declared winners at poll closing times, making the state the only visible patch of blue on the electoral map visible to the average American at that point in the evening.
Maine--I suspect the state of Maine at large will be called for Hillary at poll closing time, although if the whole state only goes single-digits for Hillary possibly not. However, only three of Maine's four electoral votes will be called that early in the night as the fourth electoral vote from the state is a toss-up and possibly even leans Trump. The fourth electoral vote probably won't be called one way or the other for hours later.
Maryland--Another easy win for Hillary called at poll closing time, most likely with Democratic Senate nominee Chris Van Hollen doing the same.
Massachusetts--Called for Hillary at 7:00.
Michigan--Gore and Obama got the calls in Michigan immediately at poll closing time, but Kerry had to wait till after midnight before they finally called the state for him. Based on recent movement in the polls Trump's direction, I suspect this year will be somewhere in between. I'm betting we wait about an hour before Michigan is called for Hillary.
Mississippi--While Mississippi never gets "close", the monolithically Democratic African-American vote sometimes creates enough hypothetical uncertainty that the state doesn't get called right away. Since I doubt the black vote will be as large in 2016 as it was 2012, it would be pretty silly if they didn't call Mississippi for Trump right away at poll closing time.
Missouri--Even though Missouri has been getting more lopsidedly Republican in the last several cycles, we have yet to see the state be called for Republican nominee in a Presidential election at poll closing time. If recent polls showing Trump winning the state by double-digits hold, 2016 could well be the first time Missouri gets called at 7:00. The much tighter Senate race is likely to be hanging out there for several hours though.
New Jersey--It's not quite the sure thing that other northeastern states are for an immediate call at poll closing, even John Kerry got the 7:00 call in New Jersey while winning the state by only 7 points in 2004, so I'm guessing that streak holds on Tuesday.
Oklahoma--One of Trump's best states will be called for him right away at poll closing time. Senator Jim Lankford also gets the call at 7.
Pennsylvania--Even in 2008, when Obama won Pennsylvania by more than 10 points, the networks still made us wait about 45 minutes before calling Pennsylvania. Difficult to imagine any scenario where they don't make us wait again this year, although I suspect the call comes in at least before 9:00. It's likely to be a longer wait before the tight Senate race is called. The changing Pennsylvania electorate contributes some to the delayed calls. The vote tends to be counted first in the heavily Democratic Philadelphia area giving the Democrats a big early lead in the count, but as the rest of the state gets more and more Republican, it's easy to see why the networks would be more hesitant to make a call before more of the rural vote comes in.
Rhode Island--As recently as 2004, Rhode Island's polls didn't close until 8:00 central (9:00 their time) which was helpful for Democrats to increase their electoral vote tally with an easy victory even as the race moved more into unfriendly Middle American terrain. But they've now moved their poll closing time up to 7:00 so its polls close at the same time as most of its neighbors, always safely in the Democratic camp at poll closing time as it will be again this year.
Tennessee--A long-time swing state that took a sharp right turn last decade and is now a cinch for a call at poll closing time for Trump.
7:30 Poll Closing Times
Arkansas--The only state where the polls close at the bottom of the 7:00 hour was, like Tennessee, a swing state not that long ago. This year it will be one of Trump's best states and will be called right away at 7:30, along with the re-election of Senator John Boozman.
8:00 Poll Closing Times
Arizona--It's only 7:00 in the Mountain Time Zone but this year's newest swing state's polls close at the same time that much of the nation's midsection does. Even in cycles when Republicans win Arizona decisively, which is most of them, the networks usually leave the state hanging out there for at least an hour after poll closing before making a call. This year, even if it proves not to be as close as Hillary once hoped, will likely take at least a couple of hours for the call. I still expect John McCain to get the call either at poll closing time or within a half hour of it.
Colorado--We never get an 8:00 call out of Colorado, even in 2008 when Obama won it by 9 points, and now there's a new wrinkle as the state votes by mail. Given that some ballots won't be rolling in until days after poll closing time, it's very possible we won't have a call in Colorado for a very long time. Considering Hillary is supposed to have a decisive lead, I'm guessing the state will be called by 10:00, but if the race ends up closer than expected, it could well be November 9th before a call is made as was the case in 2014 for the re-election of Governor John Hickenlooper, the state's first experiment with the extremely frustrating vote-by-mail approach. I'll stick my neck out and say that Senator Michael Bennet's re-election is called at poll closing time though.
Kansas--The bright red state of Kansas will be called for Trump and Senator Jerry Moran at 8:00 poll closing time.
Louisiana--Another quick call for Trump, most likely right away at 8:00. Crazy to think this state went double-digits for Bill Clinton 20 years ago.
Minnesota--Despite its reputation as a Democratic stronghold, in the past four election cycles Minnesota has only been called once at poll closing time, and that was in 2008. Part of it is due to the fact that there's been very little early voting in Minnesota compared to other states, although there are signs that may changing. Given the state of the polls, I'm betting that there's not a call at poll closing time but probably one before 9:00, as was the case in 2012.
Nebraska--Four of Nebraska's five electoral votes will likely be called at 8:00, but that fifth vote based out of the Omaha area could hang out there for a while. I have a feeling it'll be called before 11:00 for Trump though.
New Mexico--For some reason, none of the three Southwestern states of Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico have ever been called immediately at poll closing times in the last four Presidential elections, even in 2008 when Obama won New Mexico by 15 points. Particularly with the uncertainty due to former home state Governor Gary Johnson running third-party, I doubt we'll see a poll closing call for Hillary this year either, but I suspect it'll come within an hour.
New York--Now that Rhode Island's polls are closing an hour earlier, New York is the only sure thing for Democrats amongst the 8:00 poll closing states (9:00 Eastern time). Of course it's a big score with 29 electoral votes, and will definitely be called at 8:00 again this year, along with Senator Chuck Schumer's race.
North Dakota--Trump and Senator Hoeven both get the call at 7:00.
South Dakota--It's possible if it's a single-digit race, as it was in 2008, the call for Trump might not come at 8:00, but I suspect Trump is pulling away in South Dakota and gets the early call along with Senator Thune.
Texas--Most of the polls in Texas close at 7:00 central time but the El Paso area is in the mountain time zone and doesn't close till 8:00. Despite rumors of Texas being close this year, expect the call for Trump to come right away at poll closing time.
Wisconsin--Only in 2008 has the winner of Wisconsin been declared at poll closing time, although Obama got the call in less than an hour in 2012. Hillary's numbers appear to be comparable in most polls suggesting a call by or even before 9:00 is possible. A week ago I'd have figured the call for Russ Feingold in the Senate race would have come at poll closing time. Now he's managed to do what Feingold does best and piss away a huge lead, so it's doubtful we'll get a call in that race for hours after polls closed.
Wyoming--The state that is likely Trump's best in the country will be called for him at poll closing time.
9:00 Poll Closing Times
Iowa--The only state west of the Rockies where the polls are still open after 8:00 is the state where I reside. A massive chunk of Iowans (close to a majority) now vote early so the vote count goes reasonably quickly. All signs point to a decisive Trump victory in Iowa but I doubt it will be large enough to call the state right at poll closing time though. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump's is formalized by 10:00 though. Senator Grassley's re-election will be declared at poll closing time.
Montana--Back in 2008, Obama fought McCain to less than three points in typically dark red Montana and the race wasn't called until nearly sunrise the next morning. At Hillary's peak moment of momentum following the release of the "Access Hollywood" tape against Trump, there was speculation Montana could be competitive this year too. It proved out of reach a month ago and is even more so today. Expect a call for Trump in Montana at poll closing time.
Nevada--In previous cycles, Nevada had an insanely slow vote count and, given that elections in the state have mostly been close going back to the early 1990s, it's hung out there into the wee hours of the night without a call. But the state has trended more Democratic in recent cycles and early votes now account for about two-thirds of all Nevada votes cast, which should accelerate the vote count substantially from years past. I suspect wins the state decisively, probably not not dramatically enough to get a call at 9:00, but could easily imagine it called before 10:00. It's far less clear if the competitive open Senate seat gets called anywhere near that early, and my guess is it won't be.
Utah--Anybody who had at anytime in the modern era said that the Beehive State, one of the nation's most Republican, would one day not be called for the Republican Presidential nominee at poll closing time would be laughed out of the room, but this year it seems far more likely than not that Utah will be "too close to call" at 9:00. With native son and third-party conservative spoiler Evan McMullin polling very strong in Utah, there's a legitimate three-way race of the state's six electoral votes. The last two polls I've seen have shown McMullin fading and Republicans going home to Trump, so I suspect the race gets called before 10:00. Senator Mike Lee's re-election will be declared at 9:00 poll closing time though.
10:00 Poll Closing Times
California--For a quarter century now, California has been a cinch for Democratic Presidential nominees and has been called at poll closing time, giving Democrats a (often desperately needed) burst of 55 electoral votes to add to their total. That tradition will definitely continue in 2016, although California is voting by mail for the first time so it'll be interesting to see how that goes in (hopefully) fixing California's typical weekslong process of counting votes.
Hawaii--It's the middle of the afternoon in Hawaii when the polls close even though it's 10 p.m. when it happens in the Midwest. The islands can occasionally be unpredictable, as they were in 2004 when John Kerry only won by single digits, but it seems very likely that Hawaii will be called at poll closing for both Hillary and Senator Brian Schatz.
Idaho--Most of Idaho is in the Mountain Time Zone and the polls close there an hour earlier but the panhandle of Idaho is in the Pacific Time Zone so the call holds off until 10:00 central., but be sure that when the call does come in it will be immediately for Trump.
Oregon--Even though California has just moved to vote-by-mail this cycle, they've been doing it in Washington and Oregon for 20 years now. I have my concerns and frustrations with early voting but there's a good reason for it on the West coast, as there were several prior cycles where a blowout election nationally cratered turnout in the Pacific time zone with devastating downballot consequences. Voting by mail helps ameliorate that risk. Back in the 90s and early 2000s when Washington and Oregon were swing states, it was frustrating because it dramatically delayed the calls (three days for Oregon was called for Gore in 2000) but both states have moved heavily Democratic in the years since and are almost certain to be called at poll closing time in 2016, and in Oregon's case, ditto for the re-election of Senator Ron Wyden.
Washington--See above (Oregon) regarding the Presidential race and likewise for Senator Patty Murray, where both will likely be called at poll closing time.
Midnight Poll Closing
Alaska--Forty-nine states close their polls by 10 p.m. central time but we have to wait two full hours for Alaska's poll closing. There are some gonzo polls out there showing Hillary very competitive in this traditional Republican stronghold but I'm not really buying them and anticipate Trump gets the call at poll closing, likely before at least a few battleground states get called.
Not much to add in terms of closing thoughts here but I'll be very curious to see how closely the evening tracks with my timeline here. Most years, it's pretty predictable.
posted by Mark at 8:29 PM
2 Comments:
Good stuff, thanks for sharing. I'm curious to know more about the mechanics of how the votes are tallied and the states are called -- I imagine there must be some central board that gets the results from different precincts and then keeps a tally and then reports those to the journalists and the networks? And they must have some statistical formulas that allow them to call a state even with a small amount of the vote.
Where I live in WI there are paper ballots which is a good failsafe for a recount, but in PA it's electronic so let's hope there's no ballot controversies this year.
They say that the voting machines, which Pennsylvania is famous for, are not hooked up to the Internet making them not prone to hacking. I'm not entirely convinced but it sounds good. There are still a lot of ways in which the vote count could be tampered with by hackers which is terrifying since, even if it gets corrected, accusations of "rigging" will ricochet through the electorate. It could be incredibly ugly in a way we haven't seen in our lifetimes, even worse than 2000. I sure hope it goes smoothly and I wish we could dispense with these voting machines once and for all. I think there are websites out there that give national maps of voting methods that can give you your answer on your question.
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