About Those Elections on Tuesday...and Roy Moore!
The states of Virginia and New Jersey held gubernatorial races last Tuesday, with some stray races elsewhere in the country that served up the closest thing we've gotten in the past year to a snapshot of the American electorate since the night Donald Trump was elected President on November 8, 2016. The verdict of voters gave Democrats a lot to crow about. It was hard to get a good read on New Jersey. Democratic candidate Phil Murphy had such a dominating lead throughout the cycle that turnout was low, and it likely trimmed his margin by a few points. Murphy won by 13 points, which is solid if not earth-shattering compared to the New Jersey baseline, but the anemic turnout was probably the worst news the Democrats got Tuesday night in that it once again showed the Democratic base is very hard to motivate to get to the polls. Outgoing Republican Governor Chris Christie was the least popular Governor in the country and one of the least popular in the history of polling, yet his Lieutenant Governor still managed to get more than 42% of the vote in a deep blue state in a race to succeed him.
Virginia was a much more unequivocal success for Democrats. Polls leading up to election day were showing that Republican Ed Gillespie was closing hard on Democratic Ralph Northam. I never made a formal prediction, but guessed that Northam would prevail by 1 or 2 points. My take was that Gillespie would do just as well as Trump did in the rural parts of the state but that Democratic northern Virginia would revert to the numbers Obama got in 2008 and 2012, numbers that were still strong and still enough to barely win statewide even with rural Virginia going a brighter shade of red than it did in the Obama years, but proving an underwhelming rebuke to Trumpian tactics. After all, Gillespie began embracing Trump-style positions on immigration in particular with hard-nosed ads towards the end of the campaign, and the fact that Gillespie was closing the gap in the polls made it appear as though the tactics were working.
But that didn't happen. Northam won the state by nearly 9 points, blowing past the predictions of even the most optimistic Democrats and running up the score to unprecedented levels in northern Virginia as well the Richmond area and the Tidewater region of southeastern Virginia centered around Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Even more shocking was Democrats gaining 15 seats, give or take a couple pending final vote totals, in the Virginia House of Delegates, a body where Republicans held a 66-34 lead a week ago and where they'll go in around 50-50 next year. Nobody expected that...or anything close to it....and more than any other result of the night it indicated a massive wave may be developing that could wash away hundreds of Republicans nationwide next November.
But there are some important caveats to note here. First of all, there's no place in Middle America that is comparable to Virginia demographically. The Democratic surge voters there are most likely to be federal workers and military contractors who embody what Trump refers to as the "Washington swamp". The voting patterns of upscale white voters in places like Loudoun County, Virginia, may not prove transferable to Democratic candidates in suburban St. Louis or Indianapolis, to take a couple of examples of states that have key Senate races next year.
And even more concerning for Democrats is that nearly every rural jurisdiction in the state, particularly the western two-thirds of the state, went as strong for Ed Gillespie on Tuesday night as they did for Trump last year....and they never went for any Republican as strongly as they did for Trump prior to last year! There are localized issues in rural Virginia that could account for this, including the ongoing realignment over coal as well as the Virginia-specific Confederate monument debate, but if Trump's baseline in rural areas is the new normal in the rest of the country as it was in Virginia on Tuesday night, the Democrats are in deep trouble in several largely rural states where they're defending Senate seats next November. Most notably, Tuesday's results in rural Virginia bode poorly for the chances of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
On balance, however, Tuesday's election foreshadowed a substantial anti-Trump protest vote is likely to gain steam for next year's midterms, and even if it doesn't hit every corner of the country, bodes well for Democrats in the House of Representatives and legislative seats in many states next year. Democrats have some major vulnerabilities on a number of key issues that Trump successfully exploited last year, and those vulnerabilities haven't gone away and could limit the scope of their gains, particularly with as skillful as Trump is at steering the national conversation towards culture war fault lines where Democrats are on the short end of the stick. But Gillespie made a major effort to replicate Trump's template on culture war touchstones and those efforts flopped, so it's entirely possible that the election fundamentals will hold. The 2018 midterms could indeed be mostly about voters countering an unpopular President with very low approval ratings and little else.
On more order of business on a race where a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks since I made my most recent predictions, and that's the December 12th special election for a Senate race in Alabama. Two weeks ago, I predicted impeached judge Roy Moore, disgraced and deemed unthinkable by all but the fringiest players in the Republican Party, would nonetheless prevail by 14 points against Democrat Doug Jones. Then this past Thursday, the Washington Post released a very credible story alleging Moore as being a pedophile. Twenty-four hours ago, I would have said this wouldn't matter a bit in Alabama and southern conservative voters would do what they've been doing for two centuries, circling the wagons in defense of their tribemate. If anything, I figured on Thursday night, Moore would now win by an even bigger margin because conspiracy-minded Alabama conservatives would rally to Moore to spite the Washington Post. But then Friday happened and Roy Moore opened his mouth.....
Had Moore simply maintained steadfast and indignant denial, with his allies coming up with imaginative new ways to defend his conduct and blame his victims, he'd have prevailed, but instead Moore went on Sean Hannity's radio show today and effectively incriminated himself. Moore gave multiple different answers to the same questions and squashed his deniability to the charges. You'd never have believed Moore ever practiced law based on his amateurish answers to softball questions from Hannity who was doing everything in his power to help Moore help himself. And now the floodgates are opening with high-profile after high-profile Republican calling for Moore to drop out of the race. It's not in Moore's DNA to drop out, so that won't happen, but it is getting harder to imagine him being the next Senator from Alabama than it was a few hours ago. There are multiple scenarios that could unfold from here, ranging from other Alabama Republicans waging a write-in candidate to the scenario I see happening, the state's Republican Governor carrying on Alabama's long-running tradition of whatever-it-takes tribalism and delaying the election long enough to where they can legally swap Moore out with another Republican nominee. Whatever scenario ultimately comes to fruition, I suspect the least likely scenario is that Democrat Doug Jones wins the election on December 12th and is seated in the U.S. Senate. Not in Alabama.
Virginia was a much more unequivocal success for Democrats. Polls leading up to election day were showing that Republican Ed Gillespie was closing hard on Democratic Ralph Northam. I never made a formal prediction, but guessed that Northam would prevail by 1 or 2 points. My take was that Gillespie would do just as well as Trump did in the rural parts of the state but that Democratic northern Virginia would revert to the numbers Obama got in 2008 and 2012, numbers that were still strong and still enough to barely win statewide even with rural Virginia going a brighter shade of red than it did in the Obama years, but proving an underwhelming rebuke to Trumpian tactics. After all, Gillespie began embracing Trump-style positions on immigration in particular with hard-nosed ads towards the end of the campaign, and the fact that Gillespie was closing the gap in the polls made it appear as though the tactics were working.
But that didn't happen. Northam won the state by nearly 9 points, blowing past the predictions of even the most optimistic Democrats and running up the score to unprecedented levels in northern Virginia as well the Richmond area and the Tidewater region of southeastern Virginia centered around Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Even more shocking was Democrats gaining 15 seats, give or take a couple pending final vote totals, in the Virginia House of Delegates, a body where Republicans held a 66-34 lead a week ago and where they'll go in around 50-50 next year. Nobody expected that...or anything close to it....and more than any other result of the night it indicated a massive wave may be developing that could wash away hundreds of Republicans nationwide next November.
But there are some important caveats to note here. First of all, there's no place in Middle America that is comparable to Virginia demographically. The Democratic surge voters there are most likely to be federal workers and military contractors who embody what Trump refers to as the "Washington swamp". The voting patterns of upscale white voters in places like Loudoun County, Virginia, may not prove transferable to Democratic candidates in suburban St. Louis or Indianapolis, to take a couple of examples of states that have key Senate races next year.
And even more concerning for Democrats is that nearly every rural jurisdiction in the state, particularly the western two-thirds of the state, went as strong for Ed Gillespie on Tuesday night as they did for Trump last year....and they never went for any Republican as strongly as they did for Trump prior to last year! There are localized issues in rural Virginia that could account for this, including the ongoing realignment over coal as well as the Virginia-specific Confederate monument debate, but if Trump's baseline in rural areas is the new normal in the rest of the country as it was in Virginia on Tuesday night, the Democrats are in deep trouble in several largely rural states where they're defending Senate seats next November. Most notably, Tuesday's results in rural Virginia bode poorly for the chances of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
On balance, however, Tuesday's election foreshadowed a substantial anti-Trump protest vote is likely to gain steam for next year's midterms, and even if it doesn't hit every corner of the country, bodes well for Democrats in the House of Representatives and legislative seats in many states next year. Democrats have some major vulnerabilities on a number of key issues that Trump successfully exploited last year, and those vulnerabilities haven't gone away and could limit the scope of their gains, particularly with as skillful as Trump is at steering the national conversation towards culture war fault lines where Democrats are on the short end of the stick. But Gillespie made a major effort to replicate Trump's template on culture war touchstones and those efforts flopped, so it's entirely possible that the election fundamentals will hold. The 2018 midterms could indeed be mostly about voters countering an unpopular President with very low approval ratings and little else.
On more order of business on a race where a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks since I made my most recent predictions, and that's the December 12th special election for a Senate race in Alabama. Two weeks ago, I predicted impeached judge Roy Moore, disgraced and deemed unthinkable by all but the fringiest players in the Republican Party, would nonetheless prevail by 14 points against Democrat Doug Jones. Then this past Thursday, the Washington Post released a very credible story alleging Moore as being a pedophile. Twenty-four hours ago, I would have said this wouldn't matter a bit in Alabama and southern conservative voters would do what they've been doing for two centuries, circling the wagons in defense of their tribemate. If anything, I figured on Thursday night, Moore would now win by an even bigger margin because conspiracy-minded Alabama conservatives would rally to Moore to spite the Washington Post. But then Friday happened and Roy Moore opened his mouth.....
Had Moore simply maintained steadfast and indignant denial, with his allies coming up with imaginative new ways to defend his conduct and blame his victims, he'd have prevailed, but instead Moore went on Sean Hannity's radio show today and effectively incriminated himself. Moore gave multiple different answers to the same questions and squashed his deniability to the charges. You'd never have believed Moore ever practiced law based on his amateurish answers to softball questions from Hannity who was doing everything in his power to help Moore help himself. And now the floodgates are opening with high-profile after high-profile Republican calling for Moore to drop out of the race. It's not in Moore's DNA to drop out, so that won't happen, but it is getting harder to imagine him being the next Senator from Alabama than it was a few hours ago. There are multiple scenarios that could unfold from here, ranging from other Alabama Republicans waging a write-in candidate to the scenario I see happening, the state's Republican Governor carrying on Alabama's long-running tradition of whatever-it-takes tribalism and delaying the election long enough to where they can legally swap Moore out with another Republican nominee. Whatever scenario ultimately comes to fruition, I suspect the least likely scenario is that Democrat Doug Jones wins the election on December 12th and is seated in the U.S. Senate. Not in Alabama.
posted by Mark at 10:41 PM
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