Election Day in Alabama
A week ago, I was pretty confident that Roy Moore had tremendous momentum, consolidating the conservative vote after getting "permission" of sort by Governor Ivey and President Trump to vote for Moore based on raw partisanship of the sort that plays in Alabama more than just about anywhere else in the country. With the day of reckoning officially arrived, I still think Moore is gonna win, and probably win big, but it's less clear that he has momentum than it appeared last week. Polls are all over the place because it's very hard to gauge who is gonna turn out in a special election on a Tuesday in December and thus tough to model the polling in a way that in any way reflects what the December 12th electorate looks like. It's usually a pretty safe bet to err on the side of grumpy old white guys when it comes to who turns out at a special election, but the nature of this race throws that into question and every metric of "enthusiasm" from crowd size at rallies to yard sign prevalence points to Jones.
Since it's almost impossible to predict how this race plays out beyond a gut observation that the "silent majority" in a right-wing state like Alabama will default on the side of the candidate with the magic (R) next to his name, I thought it would be helpful to point to some geographic guideposts of where to look and what to look for on the election map tonight.
First and foremost, Birmingham, in Jefferson County. Alabama's largest and most cosmopolitan area is 40% black and the county has been trending Democratic the last few cycles, having gone twice for Obama and for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Jones needs to blow the roof off there, winning over country club Republican moderates in mostly white areas of suburban Birmingham. Roy Moore's Democratic challenger for the state Supreme Court in 2012 got to 63% in Jefferson County. Most observers expect Doug Jones needs to get to 67% there tonight if Jones has any realistic chance of a statewide win.
The second most important county is Madison County in the far northern part of the state, home of the new economy city of Huntsville which has a lot of technology workers. This is a Republican county generally but Moore didn't win here in 2012 and I doubt he will tonight. But Jones need a substantial win here tonight to be competitive statewide. I'd hold up 57% or 58% as a baseline for what Jones needs to get if he wants to counter Moore's advantages elsewhere.
Shelby County is the most heavily populated suburban county in Alabama, just to the south of Birmingham. It's always been a Republican stronghold and will go very strong for Roy Moore tonight, but Moore's fate depends largely on how strong. I believe Donald Trump got 76% in Shelby County. If Jones is to win, he'll want to trim Roy Moore's Shelby County victory to about 62% at the highest.
The Gulf Coast counties of Mobile and Baldwin are also very important as a microcosm of Jefferson and Shelby Counties in central Alabama. Mobile County has an urban base (second largest city in Alabama) and voted against Moore in his narrow 2012 win for state Supreme Court justice. Jones needs a decisive high-single-digit win in Mobile County tonight too. Mostly suburban Baldwin County to Mobile's east votes a lot like archconservative Shelby County in central Alabama, typically going about 3-1 Republican. Tonight, if Moore is pulling in 63% of the vote or better in Baldwin, he's probably winning statewide.
Democrats need to run up the score in the "Black Belt", the former epicenter of Alabama's plantation country that has rich black farm soil and a majority African-American population. The capital city of Montgomery is part of the Black Belt and needs to come in big for Jones (at least 70%). Historically famous smaller cities like Selma and Tuskegee are also in the Black Belt, and those counties had better be at least 75% Jones. It's a certainty that there will be a ribbon of blue counties running from west-central to east-central Alabama on the county map tonight, but pay attention to the margins and how wide that ribbon is. If it's wide, that means that counties like Clarke, Conecuh, Cherokee, and Chambers, on the periphery of the Black Belt with substantial but less than majority black populations went for Jones, which would be very good news for him.
The college towns of Tuscaloosa (Tuscaloosa County) and Auburn (Lee County) need to run much stronger for Jones tonight than typical Democrats. Jones needs to win Tuscaloosa County outright, probably by at least five points, and hold his losses to a few points in Lee County to win statewide.
The largely white rural counties in the northern tier of Alabama counties, particularly the northwest corner, used to be a dependable part of the Democratic coalition in Alabama, dating back to the Tennessee Valley Authority days and lasting through the mid-2000s, but it's slipped away in recent cycles and I'm not confident it's gonna go for Jones tonight. If Jones is winning counties like Colbert, Lawrence, and Marion in northern Alabama, it's a very good sign for him. Along the same lines, Moore's home county of Etowah, home to the small city of Gadsden, is in the northern third of Alabama and for decades was a strong Democratic county. Moore has never done great there, only getting 55% in 2012, and while I'm pretty sure he'll win Etowah County tonight, he might only win by single digits if Jones is having a good night.
Outside of that we're looking at rural, exurban, or small city counties that are likely to be Moore strongholds. The counties just north of Birmingham such as Blount, St. Clair, and Walker should be some of Moore's strongest counties and will be likely to go 65% or better for Moore. The Wiregrass area in the state's southeast corner, with the population center being Houston County (Dothan) will be solid Moore as well, but the best the Democrats can hope for is depressed turnout.
A bunch of things will have to go right for Jones to eke out a win. It's entirely possible it could happen, but if you're using this blog post as a guide tracking the results and Jones is falling short of the benchmarks I'm listing in just about any of them, he won't win. Since there hasn't been a close election in Alabama in 15 years, I don't have a good idea on what part of the state rolls in first versus what rolls in later in the night, so tonight will be relatively uncharted waters in results tracking. Unless it's clear right away that Moore is gonna win, it should be an exciting night.
Since it's almost impossible to predict how this race plays out beyond a gut observation that the "silent majority" in a right-wing state like Alabama will default on the side of the candidate with the magic (R) next to his name, I thought it would be helpful to point to some geographic guideposts of where to look and what to look for on the election map tonight.
First and foremost, Birmingham, in Jefferson County. Alabama's largest and most cosmopolitan area is 40% black and the county has been trending Democratic the last few cycles, having gone twice for Obama and for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Jones needs to blow the roof off there, winning over country club Republican moderates in mostly white areas of suburban Birmingham. Roy Moore's Democratic challenger for the state Supreme Court in 2012 got to 63% in Jefferson County. Most observers expect Doug Jones needs to get to 67% there tonight if Jones has any realistic chance of a statewide win.
The second most important county is Madison County in the far northern part of the state, home of the new economy city of Huntsville which has a lot of technology workers. This is a Republican county generally but Moore didn't win here in 2012 and I doubt he will tonight. But Jones need a substantial win here tonight to be competitive statewide. I'd hold up 57% or 58% as a baseline for what Jones needs to get if he wants to counter Moore's advantages elsewhere.
Shelby County is the most heavily populated suburban county in Alabama, just to the south of Birmingham. It's always been a Republican stronghold and will go very strong for Roy Moore tonight, but Moore's fate depends largely on how strong. I believe Donald Trump got 76% in Shelby County. If Jones is to win, he'll want to trim Roy Moore's Shelby County victory to about 62% at the highest.
The Gulf Coast counties of Mobile and Baldwin are also very important as a microcosm of Jefferson and Shelby Counties in central Alabama. Mobile County has an urban base (second largest city in Alabama) and voted against Moore in his narrow 2012 win for state Supreme Court justice. Jones needs a decisive high-single-digit win in Mobile County tonight too. Mostly suburban Baldwin County to Mobile's east votes a lot like archconservative Shelby County in central Alabama, typically going about 3-1 Republican. Tonight, if Moore is pulling in 63% of the vote or better in Baldwin, he's probably winning statewide.
Democrats need to run up the score in the "Black Belt", the former epicenter of Alabama's plantation country that has rich black farm soil and a majority African-American population. The capital city of Montgomery is part of the Black Belt and needs to come in big for Jones (at least 70%). Historically famous smaller cities like Selma and Tuskegee are also in the Black Belt, and those counties had better be at least 75% Jones. It's a certainty that there will be a ribbon of blue counties running from west-central to east-central Alabama on the county map tonight, but pay attention to the margins and how wide that ribbon is. If it's wide, that means that counties like Clarke, Conecuh, Cherokee, and Chambers, on the periphery of the Black Belt with substantial but less than majority black populations went for Jones, which would be very good news for him.
The college towns of Tuscaloosa (Tuscaloosa County) and Auburn (Lee County) need to run much stronger for Jones tonight than typical Democrats. Jones needs to win Tuscaloosa County outright, probably by at least five points, and hold his losses to a few points in Lee County to win statewide.
The largely white rural counties in the northern tier of Alabama counties, particularly the northwest corner, used to be a dependable part of the Democratic coalition in Alabama, dating back to the Tennessee Valley Authority days and lasting through the mid-2000s, but it's slipped away in recent cycles and I'm not confident it's gonna go for Jones tonight. If Jones is winning counties like Colbert, Lawrence, and Marion in northern Alabama, it's a very good sign for him. Along the same lines, Moore's home county of Etowah, home to the small city of Gadsden, is in the northern third of Alabama and for decades was a strong Democratic county. Moore has never done great there, only getting 55% in 2012, and while I'm pretty sure he'll win Etowah County tonight, he might only win by single digits if Jones is having a good night.
Outside of that we're looking at rural, exurban, or small city counties that are likely to be Moore strongholds. The counties just north of Birmingham such as Blount, St. Clair, and Walker should be some of Moore's strongest counties and will be likely to go 65% or better for Moore. The Wiregrass area in the state's southeast corner, with the population center being Houston County (Dothan) will be solid Moore as well, but the best the Democrats can hope for is depressed turnout.
A bunch of things will have to go right for Jones to eke out a win. It's entirely possible it could happen, but if you're using this blog post as a guide tracking the results and Jones is falling short of the benchmarks I'm listing in just about any of them, he won't win. Since there hasn't been a close election in Alabama in 15 years, I don't have a good idea on what part of the state rolls in first versus what rolls in later in the night, so tonight will be relatively uncharted waters in results tracking. Unless it's clear right away that Moore is gonna win, it should be an exciting night.
posted by Mark at 10:02 AM
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