The Shutdown and Trump's First Year
As I write this, it's been one year to the day since "more people watched Trump be inaugurated President than anybody else in history...period!" He started his Presidency with approval ratings below 50%, an unprecedentedly lousy start to his tenure that has only worsened in the 12 years since as most polls show his approval rating below 40%. Ultimately though, I'm not sure anybody--supporters and critics alike--are really surprised by the first year of his Presidency. There have been some individual moments that have raised eyebrows, including accusing his predecessor of wiretapping him without evidence and conflating neo-Nazis with their protestors following a deadly altercation in Virginia, but there's been little genuine deviation between President Donald Trump and the chaotic, bull-in-a-china-shop Republican nominee of 2016 who won 30 states worth 306 electoral votes.
And that's why I continue to believe Trump is capable of a comeback. There's a certain percentage of the country, possibly but not necessarily a majority, who could be described as hard critics of Trump. That's probably more than any other President in my lifetime after his first year in office and assures Trump of a low ceiling even in the best-case scenario. But I also don't think it should be underestimated how many of the 60% of Americans who claim to oppose Trump in polls are simply holding out for him to be, as Newt Gingrich put it, "10% more Presidential". Trump is incapable of being "more Presidential", or at least sustaining the posture for more than a few days before his man-child instincts kick in and reveal his true colors yet again, but Trump is nonetheless capable of getting those soft critics back....and it's my suspicion that he will get them back. After all, he won their support in 2016 and recognizes the issues and culture war touchstones that viscerally appeal to them, and most of all, he's a maestro at disqualifying his opponents.
And that leads me to the government shutdown that is currently commemorating Trump's one-year anniversary. The shutdown is less than 24 hours old as of this writing and if it wraps up before next week or in the few days following, it'll be a nonissue and be out of the headlines in seven days. Even if the shutdown lasts a month, voters have laughably short memories and will have moved onto other priorities when deciding how to vote this coming November. So despite the theoretical embarrassment of the Republican Party controlling the Presidency, Senate, and House yet not being able to muster up enough votes to thwart a shutdown, expect a collective shrug of indifference from voters, particularly eight months from now.
Far as I can tell, there's only one possible lasting effect from this shutdown that could impact the midterm elections, and it's to the detriment of Democrats. There are any number of issues where Democrats could have drawn their line in the sand in denying votes for the continuing resolution on the table in the past week, but the issue the Democrats chose was illegal immigration. Specifically, the fight is over whether the so-called "Dreamers"--people brought into America illegally as children who are now adults and immersed in American life--should be granted amnesty. I think this is a reasonable position and polling suggests most voters and even many Republican voters are fine with this, insofar as they understand it in contrast with the broader immigration reform debate, but it's eyebrow-raising that the fight to keep the federal government open comes down to an issue that has no direct effect whatsoever on the lives of the overwhelming majority of Americans. Seeing the Democrats complicity in grinding the federal government to a halt over this issue exhibits the same head-smacking tone-deafness that contributed to their defeat in the polls at the hands of Trump in the first place.
And the upshot for Republicans and Trump is that setting Democrats up to take the federal government over a cliff on this issue gift-wraps for them a political attack ad next fall against nearly a dozen vulnerable (or potentially vulnerable) Senate Democrats. If Republicans run on a continual loop this fall ads against Trump-state Democrats stating that "Tammy Baldwin/Sherrod Brown/Claire McCaskill/Sherrod Brown/Bob Casey voted to shut the federal government down this year in order to get amnesty for illegals", it will be a powerful and hard to refute statement. The specifics of the issue relating only to "Dreamers" will likely be irrelevant and will put the incumbents on defense in states that Trump won on an issue where most voters have strong general feelings. Being guilty of "shutting down the government for amnesty" is a very bad look, and the fact that most Congressional Democrats are too out of touch to recognize that is Exhibit A why I don't count Trump out as his Presidency moves into its second year.
And that's why I continue to believe Trump is capable of a comeback. There's a certain percentage of the country, possibly but not necessarily a majority, who could be described as hard critics of Trump. That's probably more than any other President in my lifetime after his first year in office and assures Trump of a low ceiling even in the best-case scenario. But I also don't think it should be underestimated how many of the 60% of Americans who claim to oppose Trump in polls are simply holding out for him to be, as Newt Gingrich put it, "10% more Presidential". Trump is incapable of being "more Presidential", or at least sustaining the posture for more than a few days before his man-child instincts kick in and reveal his true colors yet again, but Trump is nonetheless capable of getting those soft critics back....and it's my suspicion that he will get them back. After all, he won their support in 2016 and recognizes the issues and culture war touchstones that viscerally appeal to them, and most of all, he's a maestro at disqualifying his opponents.
And that leads me to the government shutdown that is currently commemorating Trump's one-year anniversary. The shutdown is less than 24 hours old as of this writing and if it wraps up before next week or in the few days following, it'll be a nonissue and be out of the headlines in seven days. Even if the shutdown lasts a month, voters have laughably short memories and will have moved onto other priorities when deciding how to vote this coming November. So despite the theoretical embarrassment of the Republican Party controlling the Presidency, Senate, and House yet not being able to muster up enough votes to thwart a shutdown, expect a collective shrug of indifference from voters, particularly eight months from now.
Far as I can tell, there's only one possible lasting effect from this shutdown that could impact the midterm elections, and it's to the detriment of Democrats. There are any number of issues where Democrats could have drawn their line in the sand in denying votes for the continuing resolution on the table in the past week, but the issue the Democrats chose was illegal immigration. Specifically, the fight is over whether the so-called "Dreamers"--people brought into America illegally as children who are now adults and immersed in American life--should be granted amnesty. I think this is a reasonable position and polling suggests most voters and even many Republican voters are fine with this, insofar as they understand it in contrast with the broader immigration reform debate, but it's eyebrow-raising that the fight to keep the federal government open comes down to an issue that has no direct effect whatsoever on the lives of the overwhelming majority of Americans. Seeing the Democrats complicity in grinding the federal government to a halt over this issue exhibits the same head-smacking tone-deafness that contributed to their defeat in the polls at the hands of Trump in the first place.
And the upshot for Republicans and Trump is that setting Democrats up to take the federal government over a cliff on this issue gift-wraps for them a political attack ad next fall against nearly a dozen vulnerable (or potentially vulnerable) Senate Democrats. If Republicans run on a continual loop this fall ads against Trump-state Democrats stating that "Tammy Baldwin/Sherrod Brown/Claire McCaskill/Sherrod Brown/Bob Casey voted to shut the federal government down this year in order to get amnesty for illegals", it will be a powerful and hard to refute statement. The specifics of the issue relating only to "Dreamers" will likely be irrelevant and will put the incumbents on defense in states that Trump won on an issue where most voters have strong general feelings. Being guilty of "shutting down the government for amnesty" is a very bad look, and the fact that most Congressional Democrats are too out of touch to recognize that is Exhibit A why I don't count Trump out as his Presidency moves into its second year.
posted by Mark at 6:41 PM
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