2020 Election Preview: Presidential Predictions
Well it's finally happening. I finally feel as though I have enough of a comfort level with the shape of the 2020 Presidential race that I'm gonna put myself out there and make some predictions about the state of the race only three and a half months before Election Day. My last speculation about the race came after Biden's big Super Tuesday win and just before the world changed because of COVID-19. Needless to say, a lot has happened since then and I felt like it was appropriate to see how things shook out rather than give a regular diet of hot takes that would quickly be rendered obsolete because of events. Obviously that risk is always there in the election prediction game, but at this point it's safe to say that Donald Trump's re-election looks to be in major trouble....far greater trouble that I'd have ever anticipated.
In the abstract, plenty of things have cut against Trump in the last few months. The Democrats nominated an elder statesman who will be harder than most to define as a left-wing radical, while Biden's tremendous liabilities as a nominee are being hidden because of his low profile amidst the pandemic. Meanwhile, Trump was woefully unprepared to deal with a pandemic that's exceeded pretty much every prediction in its lethality and durability. He keeps making unforced errors and looks absurdly out of his depth in dealing with anything. Trump continues to coast on an entirely unearned reputation as a sage steward of the economy, but as the virus's refusal to go away assures us of a prolonged recession, his message on that is being undermined. Pretty much everything in Trump's original playbook in how and on what he was gonna run his re-election campaign has been rendered obsolete, and he's flailing trying to figure out a new blueprint with time quickly running out.
To be sure, the left is giving Trump some material to work with even if Biden largely has not. Part of the reason I'm more checked out of this Presidential campaign at this stage of race than any Presidential campaign since I was in elementary school is the unsavory and untenable nature of the Democratic base, its obsession with poisonous identity politics reaching new heights this year and making it clear to anybody paying attention that neither Biden nor any establishment figure in the party can control the rise of radicalism in the party base. But at least thus far, Trump hasn't been able to capitalize on the delusional excesses of the woke as they burn up American cities, relentlessly lobby to get people "canceled" for expressing a view that conflicts with their own, and move to abolish police departments amidst soaring crime rates....and ultimately that goes with the territory for an incumbent overseeing a nation at a time of decline.
With this in mind, I think Trump is very likely to lose this fall. Granted, I thought that at this time in 2016 as well, and will never underestimate Trump as a result of that very unlikely win, but it's largely a different calculus for an open seat than an unpopular incumbent running for re-election. So operating under the premise that Trump will lose, the question becomes.....will the result in November more closely remember 1976 or 1980?
In 1976, quasi-incumbent Gerald Ford was very unpopular, having pardoned Richard Nixon and governing amidst mediocre fundamentals for the incumbent party. Democrats nominated an earnest, outside-the-box moderate in Jimmy Carter who left a good early impression on voters. At this point in the 1976 Presidential cycle, Ford was in even worse shape than Donald Trump is today. Nonetheless, the nation's conservative movement was ascendant at the time and Ford fought his way to a photo finish. Carter managed to revive one last gasp of Democratic might in the states of the Old Confederacy and eke out a bare majority in the Electoral College.
Four years later in 1980, Carter was now the incumbent in as big of trouble as Gerald Ford had been in 1976, with disastrous re-election fundamentals amidst a lousy economy and considerable geopolitical woes in the Middle East. Republican emissary Ronald Reagan was controversial, but the ascendant conservative movement had had four more years to gain steam. The contest had been close for most of the general election race, but Reagan broke away big-time in the final weeks, winning by 10 points and dominating the Electoral College with 44 states and well over 400 electoral votes.
So is Donald Trump gonna be more like Gerald Ford 1976 or Jimmy Carter 1980? A strong case can be made for both, but at this point I still suspect the race ends up more like 1976. Joe Biden is currently a blank slate for anybody who's not pleased with Donald Trump, meaning the race is currently a referendum and not a "choice". The more exposure Biden gets, the more likely the race is likely to become a choice. He's in the enviable position of spurning the spotlight right now, but ultimately the diminished engagement will likely make him all the more rusty when it comes time for the debates. Biden had some frighteningly "senior moments" in the primary debates, and Trump could draw serious blood if Biden has any similar moments in the general election debates or other high-profile general election moments. Furthermore, I think there's still potential for Trump to gain some traction on his "law and order" message as crime soars....and the same targeted white identity theme that helped him consolidate the white working-class vote in 2016 that should continue to have resonance as the left's messaging is increasingly dominated by nonwhite identity. Unfortunately for Trump, he's not yet getting any cooperation from Biden in helping him draw that contrast. Immigration, the issue that Trump was counting on to be the centerpiece of his 2020 campaign and likely would have put Biden on defense, will be very hard for Trump to elevate to the top of the national priority list any time soon.
Breaking it down in the Electoral College, I'll list the states I consider locks or near-locks for Biden and Trump, and then profile all of the potential battleground states individually.....
Safe Biden states--California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine District 1, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington (183 electoral votes)
Safe Trump states--Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska*, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (113 electoral votes)
And for the states either in the middle or on the outside edges of the battleground....
Alaska--The chances of Alaska being a swing state this cycle are extremely low, but the state has shown signs of being more competitive in recent cycles. Its days of being a 2-1 GOP stronghold as it was 20 years ago are likely over as the state is diversifying much more quickly than the nation. Add in its general independent streak and unpredictability and it's not unthinkable that Alaska could become competitive if Biden completely pulls away by fall. Bet on Trump winning decisively though. Prediction: Trump by 11.
Arizona--I predicted last fall that the Grand Canyon State was poised to be the "tipping point state" of the 2020 election, its 11 electoral votes best positioned to push the winner over 270 electoral votes. That still seems likely to me, and right now most polling suggests Biden has the advantage in the historically red state. It shouldn't be a surprise based on recent electoral performance, with Arizona going from Romney +10 to Trump +3 between 2012 and 2016, and then electing its first Democratic Senator in 30 years in 2018. Moderately conservative Republicans in Sun Belt suburbs have always been the hardest segment of the GOP coalition for Trump and Arizona is pretty much ground zero for that realignment, and if Trump is losing seniors over his COVID mishandling as polling suggests that's one more headwind for him to deal with. I'm skeptical these voters stay in the Democratic coalition beyond the Trump era, particularly with as far left as the Democrats are trending, but at least for 2018 it's hard to imagine Biden not winning here. Prediction: Biden by 3.
Colorado--At this point, the Centennial State is only barely part of the battleground, its leftward trendline and disagreeable demographic profile for Trump leaning the state decidedly blue heading into 2020. Still, the state ran a bit closer than I'd have expected in 2016 so I'm not yet ready to put it in the safe territory for Biden. Prediction: Biden by 9.
Florida--The Sunshine State has clearly moved to the right of the country in the last few cycles, with upscale Midwestern retirees moving to the state faster than its existing population diversifies. And unlike the retirees moving to Arizona, Florida's retirees seem to be overwhelmingly Republican and Trumpy. The state will likely be very close once again, but since my instinct on calling narrow GOP wins has served me well in all but one Florida election in the last decade, I'm gonna do so again this year. Trump was held to a one-point victory in 2016 largely because the traditionally Republican South Florida Cuban community voted against him in historic numbers. There are some signs that this community's 2016 antipathy toward Trump has ebbed some since then. So even if Biden improves over Hillary among some more moderate suburban voters, I suspect he'll still be looking at weakened Hispanic margins compared to Hillary and tens of thousands new conservative retirees who have moved there in the last four years. If Biden wins nationally by anything resembling the numbers he's scoring in current polls, then he's likely prevailing in Florida, but if the race gets closer in the home stretch as I suspect, then Florida will probably remain several points more Republican than the country and Trump will win again. Prediction: Trump by 1.
Georgia--If the demographic shift in Florida is a conservative-skewing one, the demographic shift in neighboring Georgia decidedly favors the Democrats. In both 2016 and the 2018 midterms, Democratic strength in every corner of metropolitan Atlanta was becoming impossible to ignore. Upscale white Republicans were cool to Trump, and continue to be, while the nonwhite population booms in size. It's entirely possible this ongoing shift will be enough to turn the Peach State blue in November, but I'm betting on the old guard holding strong for one final cycle and Trump pulling it out. Considering that Georgia's leftward shift is driven largely by the fastest-growing black population in the country, I'm nonetheless predicting that a decade from now Georgia will be more friendly to Democrats than just about any state in the Midwest. Prediction: Trump by 2.
Iowa--One of the biggest stories I suspect to come out of this election is that the shift away from Trump will come almost entirely from upscale suburbs. Working-class whites who were Trump's core in 2016 will most likely come back for more in comparable if not slightly larger margins in 2020. This bodes poorly for Biden in the Hawkeye State, where polls seem to narrowly favor Trump despite the national numbers and despite his controversial Chinese tariffs seen to be problematic in farm country. Iowa has been to the left of the country for pretty much my entire life but as of 2016 I think it shifted well to the right of the country and I expect the 2020 results will let us know it's gonna stay there, with only modest improvement for Biden over Hillary and almost all of that coming from whatever passes for upscale suburbs in the state of Iowa. Prediction: Trump by 7.
Maine--One of many surprises in 2016 was how close Trump got in Maine, losing by only three points statewide while crushing it by double digits in the working-class upstate Congressional district which yielded him one electoral vote since Maine allocates its electoral votes proportionally to Congressional district wins. Expect Biden to do a little better than Hillary statewide, but expect Trump to still decisively win the upstate Congressional district as these heavily white working-class areas seem poised to stubbornly persist as Trump's base. Prediction: Biden by 7 statewide. Trump by 7 in ME-02.
Michigan--Trump won the Wolverine State by 11,000 votes in a perfect storm in 2016. Barring a huge momentum shift that's entirely possible but less likely than it was four years ago, Trump will not be able to capture lightning in a bottle again this year. In Michigan, it wasn't even a matter of Hillary losing too many working-class whites or not winning enough upscale suburban voters, it was a matter of abysmal turnout among African Americans in Detroit and elsewhere in the state. With a more traditional black turnout and suburban swings even half the size of what Governor Gretchen Whitmer managed in the 2018 midterms, Michigan is comfortably back in the blue column this year. Prediction: Biden by 4.
Minnesota--As usual, the pundits have already effectively put the Gopher State in the blue state column for this November, but as happens all too often, I suspect it'll be closer than expected. The recent unrest in Minneapolis, along with the state's lackluster response to that unrest, likely means a more Trump-friendly swing vote here than other places in the country. An unusually high third-party vote along with a neck-snapping shift to Trump among rural voters got Trump within one percentage point of winning Minnesota in 2016. It seems unlikely he'll do that well again with the state's center-left suburban population at least marginally following national trends, but the realignment of the state's rural areas will press forward in Minnesota just as they have elsewhere in the Midwest, keeping Biden from running away with the state as I suspect most national pundits believe he will. Prediction: Biden by 5.
Montana--Almost nobody legitimately believes Biden could win Montana in November, but given the state's highly elastic profile and stubborn willingness to keep electing Democrats more often than Republicans downballot, I'm putting it on the list of states to watch. The state's population centers are all trending Democrat overall, meaning it's unlikely Trump gets the 20-point blowout he got in 2016 again, but he'll still have little problem reaching double digits even in a Biden landslide. Prediction: Trump by 15.
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District--While the Cornhusker State will once again go Trump by a double-digit landslide in 2020, don't expect the same outcome in the urban and suburban Omaha-centered Congressional district in a state that, like Maine, allocates its electoral votes proportional to Congressional district wins. The Omaha area has been trending Democrat for more than a decade now and while Trump narrowly won it in 2016, I doubt we'll see the same this time. Biden should get a decisive victory here. Prediction: Biden by 4 in NE-02.
Nevada--For a generation now, Nevada has been trending Democrat. Before 2016, it looked like it had realigned into a relatively safe blue state, but Trump did better than expected and only lost by 2 points to Hillary Clinton. I suspect this was pretty close to a best-case scenario for Trump given Nevada's rapidly diversifying demographics, but the culture of the state's gambling hubs is unique and prone to some offbeat and unpredictable shifts. Biden should win decisively, but I doubt he matches either of Obama's dominating victories in the state in 2008 or 2012 because of the Trump-friendly nature of its white casino workers. Prediction: Biden by 5.
New Hampshire--It kind of flew under most people's radar with all of the chatter about Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but the closest state in 2016 was New Hampshire, with Hillary Clinton winning by only 3,000 votes. I suspect Biden wins the Granite State quite a bit more handily in 2020, but once again, don't expect the improvement to come from the dwindling number of burned-out industrial towns in northern New Hampshire. The suburbs hugging the Massachusetts border will probably account for most of Biden's gains, but the state's demographics are such that they're likely to be more than enough for Biden to win. Prediction: Biden by 5.
New Mexico--The Trump campaign isn't buying any early ads in the Land of Enchantment, so this state is on the absolute edge of the battleground and likely to not be competitive as Democrats have been dominating in New Mexico in recent years. But there's a wild card in New Mexico in that Hillary won the state by 8 points but still didn't clear 50%. That's because favorite son Gary Johnson was pulling 9% in the state. Johnson's been on the ballot in New Mexico in three of the last four cycles, so assuming he doesn't find his way onto the ballot again somehow this year, it'll be interesting to see how the state performs with only two candidates pulling in the vast majority of the vote. I suspect it means the state becomes even more friendly to Biden. Prediction: Biden by 10.
North Carolina--Besides Florida, no other state has broken Democratic hearts more frequently than the Tar Heel State in the last decade, with competing demographic trends repeatedly coming out narrowly in the favor of Republicans. Most polling indicated Hillary was heavily favored in North Carolina four years ago, but I predicted Trump would eke out a win by a very slim margin. Trump ended up winning it by a healthy 4 points. Polling thus far for 2020 indicates a narrower shift toward Biden in North Carolina than a number of other states, and I suspect it will play out that way yet again on election night, with previously Democratic rural areas continuing to consolidate for the GOP and offsetting Democratic gains in the suburbs of the big cities. Prediction: Trump by 2.
Ohio--It was clear early in the cycle that Trump was poised to win the Buckeye State in 2016, but his eight-point drubbing of Hillary managed to exceed just about everybody's expectations. Polls show the race competitive heading into this cycle, but a Democratic Party insider from northeastern Ohio warned in a Politico article that we should add four points to Trump's numbers to any poll coming out of Ohio because working-class whites in the state still view Trump as a deity. This goes along with my expectations. Couple this with the abysmal state of the long-suffering Ohio Democratic Party and the hugely disappointing 2018 midterm results and it looks like Ohio will continue to trend well to the right of the country. The relatively modest upscale suburban population in the state will likely shift toward Biden as they're doing in the rest of the country, but the name of the game in Ohio is working-class whites and they will probably be even stronger for Trump this year than 2016. Prediction: Trump by 7.
Pennsylvania--The electoral prognosis for Biden looks decidedly better one state to the east of Ohio as every data point is trending in Biden's favor in the Keystone State. I should check myself here though as back in 2016 I bought into the same premise everybody else did that the overwhelming Democratic tide in the Philadelphia suburbs would by itself be enough to carry Hillary across the finish line. In the end, Hillary did no better in suburban Philly than Obama did four years earlier while getting crushed most other places in the state. Demographic trends suggest Biden is better-positioned to pick up ground in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs this year, and coupling that with an expected Biden overperformance of Hillary in the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre area where he grew up and it should be enough. The wild card is whether Trump can make hay out of the potential endangerment of Pennsylvania's fracking industry if they put the party of the Green New Deal in the White House, but given that the epicenter of PA's fracking industry is in more rural areas of the state already trending Republican, I'm not sure how many votes Trump can squeeze out of the issue even if he's able to draw some blood on it. Overall, I think Biden's homefield advantage and a more Democratic electorate generally save the day for him here. Prediction: Biden by 4.
Texas--I scoffed for years at Democrats' optimism about turning Texas into a swing state before Trump, but I'm not laughing anymore. The Lone Star State's fast-changing ethnic makeup is one of two pieces of the puzzle here why Texas has become competitive, but just as important is the divorce of upscale suburban white women to Trump's Republican Party. My shorthand for anti-Trump white suburban women in the South has been "the Dallas debutante vote" and for good reason. It was this demographic that got Beto O'Rourke within two points of Ted Cruz in 2018 and has positioned Texas to be competitive again in 2020. Ultimately I don't think it'll be THAT close and Trump will win relatively comfortably, but it will be close enough to give Republicans the willies about pending realignment of the state that is the most important building block of the GOP coalition nationally. Ultimately, the leftward shift of Democrats doesn't make me optimistic of the "Dallas debutante vote" staying blue in a post-Trump world, but crazier things have happened. Prediction: Trump by 4.
Utah--For the first time in my lifetime, the Beehive State was ostensibly part of the 2016 battleground as third-party Mormon conservative Evan McMullin was such an unpredictable wild card in a state where Republican Mormon voters were not warming to Trump. Despite McMullin getting more than 21% of the vote in Utah, Trump still won the three-way race decisively with more than 45% of the vote. That's still a lot of voters who went against Trump four years ago though, and in the state that's home to the only Congressional Republican who voted to impeach Trump, there's some indication he's still unpopular there. In a two-person race though, it remains unthinkable that Utah would go for a Democrat, so I suspect the majority of McMullin voters from 2016 will hold their nose and vote Trump in 2020. Prediction: Trump by 23.
Virginia--The Old Dominion is only barely in the Presidential battleground this year, having shifted decisively leftward in the past generation as metropolitan Washington DC has come to define its demographic profile to the point that it's scarcely even a Southern state anymore. Couple in the state's increasingly suburban profile with the "Deep State" military presence of the Tidewater region in southeast Virginia and the state is hostile territory for Trump. With advertising incredibly expensive in the Washington DC media market, expect both sides to concede this one to Biden early...to whatever extent they haven't already. Prediction: Biden by 8.
Wisconsin--The Badger State is the only state I've gone back and forth on in the past year regarding where I think its 10 electoral votes will go in November. A few months ago, I dismissed it as a Trump state, with too many working-class whites and still-too-red suburbs around Milwaukee for the incumbent to be dethroned. But the decisive Democratic win in last spring's ill-advised pandemic primary, along with consistent polling showing strong Biden leads, has made me move this one to the lean Biden category. Of course, I made the same mistake in 2016 when every single polling data point showed Hillary decisively winning Wisconsin, but the slightest tailwind in the Democrats' direction is poised to make the difference this time just as it did in the Republican direction last time. So as of now, I'm predicting Biden narrowly flips Wisconsin. Prediction: Biden by 1.
So at the current count I have Biden winning with 290 electoral votes compared to Trump's 248. If I'm right, that still means Trump is only two states short of being re-elected, making Trump very much still in the game. As we saw in both 2012 and 2016, a relatively small shift in the same direction in a number of states can make a close race look like a decisive Electoral College blowout. After all, Obama won the national popular vote in 2012 by only two points more than Hillary won in 2016, but he won 332 electoral votes compared to Hillary's 232! Make a mental note of this and realize it won't require a major difference in vote count for me to be very wrong instead of right on the money.
Also make a mental note of the fact that we're probably looking at a huge amount of mail-in voting this election, meaning that whatever the vote count is at the end of election night will not reflect the outcome as there will still be millions of ballots coming in for days to come and many of them won't be counted for multiple weeks later. Several West Coast states have been trending toward this for several cycles now and 2020 will be the first trial balloon for it to go national. I'll go on record and say that I absolutely hate the idea of having to wait a month to find out who won the election, but it's very possible that will happen this year, and once the precedent for vote-by-mail nationally is established it will be our new normal, taking all the excitement out of "election night" for the rest of all of our lives. That's a good sign of how terrible of a year 2020 is that even election nights are gonna suck from now on.
It's also one more reason why I can't get into election 2020. We're told to expect high turnout, but we'll see. Without the campaign rallies and possibly no debates, the usual triggers that breed excitement in election campaigns will be nowhere to be found this year. And as the message gets around that we'll have to wait a month to find out who won, I don't think it'll be motivating to low-propensity voters who want instant gratification, not multiple weeks worth of legal challenges and candidate bickering. Election junkies may find it fun if every election is like 2000, but I'm not sure the same will be true of mostly indifferent college students.
And whichever party wins in 2020 can expect a historical drubbing in 2022. They'll be held accountable for fixing a pandemic and an economy beaten bloody because of that pandemic by an electorate expecting things to go back to normal quickly. The nature of our modern economy assures us things that get broken will not fix easily, and the recession-and-recovery model from generations past no longer applies the way it did in the 1960s. And if the Democrats win, they'll have to contend with an unhinged left-wing cultural insurgency that will feel all the more empowered to enforce their neo-McCarthyite manifesto on a population that will overwhelmingly reject it, and expect the Democrats to have their backs as they do so. I'm rooting for Biden and voting for Biden and other Democrats, but I'm not naive enough to believe voters aren't gonna hate them soon after they take office. I've never felt more disconnected from American politics, if the tardiness of my 2020 election preview is any indication.
Nonetheless, I'll return in the next couple of weeks with my thoughts on the 2020 Senate races.
In the abstract, plenty of things have cut against Trump in the last few months. The Democrats nominated an elder statesman who will be harder than most to define as a left-wing radical, while Biden's tremendous liabilities as a nominee are being hidden because of his low profile amidst the pandemic. Meanwhile, Trump was woefully unprepared to deal with a pandemic that's exceeded pretty much every prediction in its lethality and durability. He keeps making unforced errors and looks absurdly out of his depth in dealing with anything. Trump continues to coast on an entirely unearned reputation as a sage steward of the economy, but as the virus's refusal to go away assures us of a prolonged recession, his message on that is being undermined. Pretty much everything in Trump's original playbook in how and on what he was gonna run his re-election campaign has been rendered obsolete, and he's flailing trying to figure out a new blueprint with time quickly running out.
To be sure, the left is giving Trump some material to work with even if Biden largely has not. Part of the reason I'm more checked out of this Presidential campaign at this stage of race than any Presidential campaign since I was in elementary school is the unsavory and untenable nature of the Democratic base, its obsession with poisonous identity politics reaching new heights this year and making it clear to anybody paying attention that neither Biden nor any establishment figure in the party can control the rise of radicalism in the party base. But at least thus far, Trump hasn't been able to capitalize on the delusional excesses of the woke as they burn up American cities, relentlessly lobby to get people "canceled" for expressing a view that conflicts with their own, and move to abolish police departments amidst soaring crime rates....and ultimately that goes with the territory for an incumbent overseeing a nation at a time of decline.
With this in mind, I think Trump is very likely to lose this fall. Granted, I thought that at this time in 2016 as well, and will never underestimate Trump as a result of that very unlikely win, but it's largely a different calculus for an open seat than an unpopular incumbent running for re-election. So operating under the premise that Trump will lose, the question becomes.....will the result in November more closely remember 1976 or 1980?
In 1976, quasi-incumbent Gerald Ford was very unpopular, having pardoned Richard Nixon and governing amidst mediocre fundamentals for the incumbent party. Democrats nominated an earnest, outside-the-box moderate in Jimmy Carter who left a good early impression on voters. At this point in the 1976 Presidential cycle, Ford was in even worse shape than Donald Trump is today. Nonetheless, the nation's conservative movement was ascendant at the time and Ford fought his way to a photo finish. Carter managed to revive one last gasp of Democratic might in the states of the Old Confederacy and eke out a bare majority in the Electoral College.
Four years later in 1980, Carter was now the incumbent in as big of trouble as Gerald Ford had been in 1976, with disastrous re-election fundamentals amidst a lousy economy and considerable geopolitical woes in the Middle East. Republican emissary Ronald Reagan was controversial, but the ascendant conservative movement had had four more years to gain steam. The contest had been close for most of the general election race, but Reagan broke away big-time in the final weeks, winning by 10 points and dominating the Electoral College with 44 states and well over 400 electoral votes.
So is Donald Trump gonna be more like Gerald Ford 1976 or Jimmy Carter 1980? A strong case can be made for both, but at this point I still suspect the race ends up more like 1976. Joe Biden is currently a blank slate for anybody who's not pleased with Donald Trump, meaning the race is currently a referendum and not a "choice". The more exposure Biden gets, the more likely the race is likely to become a choice. He's in the enviable position of spurning the spotlight right now, but ultimately the diminished engagement will likely make him all the more rusty when it comes time for the debates. Biden had some frighteningly "senior moments" in the primary debates, and Trump could draw serious blood if Biden has any similar moments in the general election debates or other high-profile general election moments. Furthermore, I think there's still potential for Trump to gain some traction on his "law and order" message as crime soars....and the same targeted white identity theme that helped him consolidate the white working-class vote in 2016 that should continue to have resonance as the left's messaging is increasingly dominated by nonwhite identity. Unfortunately for Trump, he's not yet getting any cooperation from Biden in helping him draw that contrast. Immigration, the issue that Trump was counting on to be the centerpiece of his 2020 campaign and likely would have put Biden on defense, will be very hard for Trump to elevate to the top of the national priority list any time soon.
Breaking it down in the Electoral College, I'll list the states I consider locks or near-locks for Biden and Trump, and then profile all of the potential battleground states individually.....
Safe Biden states--California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine District 1, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington (183 electoral votes)
Safe Trump states--Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska*, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (113 electoral votes)
And for the states either in the middle or on the outside edges of the battleground....
Alaska--The chances of Alaska being a swing state this cycle are extremely low, but the state has shown signs of being more competitive in recent cycles. Its days of being a 2-1 GOP stronghold as it was 20 years ago are likely over as the state is diversifying much more quickly than the nation. Add in its general independent streak and unpredictability and it's not unthinkable that Alaska could become competitive if Biden completely pulls away by fall. Bet on Trump winning decisively though. Prediction: Trump by 11.
Arizona--I predicted last fall that the Grand Canyon State was poised to be the "tipping point state" of the 2020 election, its 11 electoral votes best positioned to push the winner over 270 electoral votes. That still seems likely to me, and right now most polling suggests Biden has the advantage in the historically red state. It shouldn't be a surprise based on recent electoral performance, with Arizona going from Romney +10 to Trump +3 between 2012 and 2016, and then electing its first Democratic Senator in 30 years in 2018. Moderately conservative Republicans in Sun Belt suburbs have always been the hardest segment of the GOP coalition for Trump and Arizona is pretty much ground zero for that realignment, and if Trump is losing seniors over his COVID mishandling as polling suggests that's one more headwind for him to deal with. I'm skeptical these voters stay in the Democratic coalition beyond the Trump era, particularly with as far left as the Democrats are trending, but at least for 2018 it's hard to imagine Biden not winning here. Prediction: Biden by 3.
Colorado--At this point, the Centennial State is only barely part of the battleground, its leftward trendline and disagreeable demographic profile for Trump leaning the state decidedly blue heading into 2020. Still, the state ran a bit closer than I'd have expected in 2016 so I'm not yet ready to put it in the safe territory for Biden. Prediction: Biden by 9.
Florida--The Sunshine State has clearly moved to the right of the country in the last few cycles, with upscale Midwestern retirees moving to the state faster than its existing population diversifies. And unlike the retirees moving to Arizona, Florida's retirees seem to be overwhelmingly Republican and Trumpy. The state will likely be very close once again, but since my instinct on calling narrow GOP wins has served me well in all but one Florida election in the last decade, I'm gonna do so again this year. Trump was held to a one-point victory in 2016 largely because the traditionally Republican South Florida Cuban community voted against him in historic numbers. There are some signs that this community's 2016 antipathy toward Trump has ebbed some since then. So even if Biden improves over Hillary among some more moderate suburban voters, I suspect he'll still be looking at weakened Hispanic margins compared to Hillary and tens of thousands new conservative retirees who have moved there in the last four years. If Biden wins nationally by anything resembling the numbers he's scoring in current polls, then he's likely prevailing in Florida, but if the race gets closer in the home stretch as I suspect, then Florida will probably remain several points more Republican than the country and Trump will win again. Prediction: Trump by 1.
Georgia--If the demographic shift in Florida is a conservative-skewing one, the demographic shift in neighboring Georgia decidedly favors the Democrats. In both 2016 and the 2018 midterms, Democratic strength in every corner of metropolitan Atlanta was becoming impossible to ignore. Upscale white Republicans were cool to Trump, and continue to be, while the nonwhite population booms in size. It's entirely possible this ongoing shift will be enough to turn the Peach State blue in November, but I'm betting on the old guard holding strong for one final cycle and Trump pulling it out. Considering that Georgia's leftward shift is driven largely by the fastest-growing black population in the country, I'm nonetheless predicting that a decade from now Georgia will be more friendly to Democrats than just about any state in the Midwest. Prediction: Trump by 2.
Iowa--One of the biggest stories I suspect to come out of this election is that the shift away from Trump will come almost entirely from upscale suburbs. Working-class whites who were Trump's core in 2016 will most likely come back for more in comparable if not slightly larger margins in 2020. This bodes poorly for Biden in the Hawkeye State, where polls seem to narrowly favor Trump despite the national numbers and despite his controversial Chinese tariffs seen to be problematic in farm country. Iowa has been to the left of the country for pretty much my entire life but as of 2016 I think it shifted well to the right of the country and I expect the 2020 results will let us know it's gonna stay there, with only modest improvement for Biden over Hillary and almost all of that coming from whatever passes for upscale suburbs in the state of Iowa. Prediction: Trump by 7.
Maine--One of many surprises in 2016 was how close Trump got in Maine, losing by only three points statewide while crushing it by double digits in the working-class upstate Congressional district which yielded him one electoral vote since Maine allocates its electoral votes proportionally to Congressional district wins. Expect Biden to do a little better than Hillary statewide, but expect Trump to still decisively win the upstate Congressional district as these heavily white working-class areas seem poised to stubbornly persist as Trump's base. Prediction: Biden by 7 statewide. Trump by 7 in ME-02.
Michigan--Trump won the Wolverine State by 11,000 votes in a perfect storm in 2016. Barring a huge momentum shift that's entirely possible but less likely than it was four years ago, Trump will not be able to capture lightning in a bottle again this year. In Michigan, it wasn't even a matter of Hillary losing too many working-class whites or not winning enough upscale suburban voters, it was a matter of abysmal turnout among African Americans in Detroit and elsewhere in the state. With a more traditional black turnout and suburban swings even half the size of what Governor Gretchen Whitmer managed in the 2018 midterms, Michigan is comfortably back in the blue column this year. Prediction: Biden by 4.
Minnesota--As usual, the pundits have already effectively put the Gopher State in the blue state column for this November, but as happens all too often, I suspect it'll be closer than expected. The recent unrest in Minneapolis, along with the state's lackluster response to that unrest, likely means a more Trump-friendly swing vote here than other places in the country. An unusually high third-party vote along with a neck-snapping shift to Trump among rural voters got Trump within one percentage point of winning Minnesota in 2016. It seems unlikely he'll do that well again with the state's center-left suburban population at least marginally following national trends, but the realignment of the state's rural areas will press forward in Minnesota just as they have elsewhere in the Midwest, keeping Biden from running away with the state as I suspect most national pundits believe he will. Prediction: Biden by 5.
Montana--Almost nobody legitimately believes Biden could win Montana in November, but given the state's highly elastic profile and stubborn willingness to keep electing Democrats more often than Republicans downballot, I'm putting it on the list of states to watch. The state's population centers are all trending Democrat overall, meaning it's unlikely Trump gets the 20-point blowout he got in 2016 again, but he'll still have little problem reaching double digits even in a Biden landslide. Prediction: Trump by 15.
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District--While the Cornhusker State will once again go Trump by a double-digit landslide in 2020, don't expect the same outcome in the urban and suburban Omaha-centered Congressional district in a state that, like Maine, allocates its electoral votes proportional to Congressional district wins. The Omaha area has been trending Democrat for more than a decade now and while Trump narrowly won it in 2016, I doubt we'll see the same this time. Biden should get a decisive victory here. Prediction: Biden by 4 in NE-02.
Nevada--For a generation now, Nevada has been trending Democrat. Before 2016, it looked like it had realigned into a relatively safe blue state, but Trump did better than expected and only lost by 2 points to Hillary Clinton. I suspect this was pretty close to a best-case scenario for Trump given Nevada's rapidly diversifying demographics, but the culture of the state's gambling hubs is unique and prone to some offbeat and unpredictable shifts. Biden should win decisively, but I doubt he matches either of Obama's dominating victories in the state in 2008 or 2012 because of the Trump-friendly nature of its white casino workers. Prediction: Biden by 5.
New Hampshire--It kind of flew under most people's radar with all of the chatter about Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but the closest state in 2016 was New Hampshire, with Hillary Clinton winning by only 3,000 votes. I suspect Biden wins the Granite State quite a bit more handily in 2020, but once again, don't expect the improvement to come from the dwindling number of burned-out industrial towns in northern New Hampshire. The suburbs hugging the Massachusetts border will probably account for most of Biden's gains, but the state's demographics are such that they're likely to be more than enough for Biden to win. Prediction: Biden by 5.
New Mexico--The Trump campaign isn't buying any early ads in the Land of Enchantment, so this state is on the absolute edge of the battleground and likely to not be competitive as Democrats have been dominating in New Mexico in recent years. But there's a wild card in New Mexico in that Hillary won the state by 8 points but still didn't clear 50%. That's because favorite son Gary Johnson was pulling 9% in the state. Johnson's been on the ballot in New Mexico in three of the last four cycles, so assuming he doesn't find his way onto the ballot again somehow this year, it'll be interesting to see how the state performs with only two candidates pulling in the vast majority of the vote. I suspect it means the state becomes even more friendly to Biden. Prediction: Biden by 10.
North Carolina--Besides Florida, no other state has broken Democratic hearts more frequently than the Tar Heel State in the last decade, with competing demographic trends repeatedly coming out narrowly in the favor of Republicans. Most polling indicated Hillary was heavily favored in North Carolina four years ago, but I predicted Trump would eke out a win by a very slim margin. Trump ended up winning it by a healthy 4 points. Polling thus far for 2020 indicates a narrower shift toward Biden in North Carolina than a number of other states, and I suspect it will play out that way yet again on election night, with previously Democratic rural areas continuing to consolidate for the GOP and offsetting Democratic gains in the suburbs of the big cities. Prediction: Trump by 2.
Ohio--It was clear early in the cycle that Trump was poised to win the Buckeye State in 2016, but his eight-point drubbing of Hillary managed to exceed just about everybody's expectations. Polls show the race competitive heading into this cycle, but a Democratic Party insider from northeastern Ohio warned in a Politico article that we should add four points to Trump's numbers to any poll coming out of Ohio because working-class whites in the state still view Trump as a deity. This goes along with my expectations. Couple this with the abysmal state of the long-suffering Ohio Democratic Party and the hugely disappointing 2018 midterm results and it looks like Ohio will continue to trend well to the right of the country. The relatively modest upscale suburban population in the state will likely shift toward Biden as they're doing in the rest of the country, but the name of the game in Ohio is working-class whites and they will probably be even stronger for Trump this year than 2016. Prediction: Trump by 7.
Pennsylvania--The electoral prognosis for Biden looks decidedly better one state to the east of Ohio as every data point is trending in Biden's favor in the Keystone State. I should check myself here though as back in 2016 I bought into the same premise everybody else did that the overwhelming Democratic tide in the Philadelphia suburbs would by itself be enough to carry Hillary across the finish line. In the end, Hillary did no better in suburban Philly than Obama did four years earlier while getting crushed most other places in the state. Demographic trends suggest Biden is better-positioned to pick up ground in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs this year, and coupling that with an expected Biden overperformance of Hillary in the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre area where he grew up and it should be enough. The wild card is whether Trump can make hay out of the potential endangerment of Pennsylvania's fracking industry if they put the party of the Green New Deal in the White House, but given that the epicenter of PA's fracking industry is in more rural areas of the state already trending Republican, I'm not sure how many votes Trump can squeeze out of the issue even if he's able to draw some blood on it. Overall, I think Biden's homefield advantage and a more Democratic electorate generally save the day for him here. Prediction: Biden by 4.
Texas--I scoffed for years at Democrats' optimism about turning Texas into a swing state before Trump, but I'm not laughing anymore. The Lone Star State's fast-changing ethnic makeup is one of two pieces of the puzzle here why Texas has become competitive, but just as important is the divorce of upscale suburban white women to Trump's Republican Party. My shorthand for anti-Trump white suburban women in the South has been "the Dallas debutante vote" and for good reason. It was this demographic that got Beto O'Rourke within two points of Ted Cruz in 2018 and has positioned Texas to be competitive again in 2020. Ultimately I don't think it'll be THAT close and Trump will win relatively comfortably, but it will be close enough to give Republicans the willies about pending realignment of the state that is the most important building block of the GOP coalition nationally. Ultimately, the leftward shift of Democrats doesn't make me optimistic of the "Dallas debutante vote" staying blue in a post-Trump world, but crazier things have happened. Prediction: Trump by 4.
Utah--For the first time in my lifetime, the Beehive State was ostensibly part of the 2016 battleground as third-party Mormon conservative Evan McMullin was such an unpredictable wild card in a state where Republican Mormon voters were not warming to Trump. Despite McMullin getting more than 21% of the vote in Utah, Trump still won the three-way race decisively with more than 45% of the vote. That's still a lot of voters who went against Trump four years ago though, and in the state that's home to the only Congressional Republican who voted to impeach Trump, there's some indication he's still unpopular there. In a two-person race though, it remains unthinkable that Utah would go for a Democrat, so I suspect the majority of McMullin voters from 2016 will hold their nose and vote Trump in 2020. Prediction: Trump by 23.
Virginia--The Old Dominion is only barely in the Presidential battleground this year, having shifted decisively leftward in the past generation as metropolitan Washington DC has come to define its demographic profile to the point that it's scarcely even a Southern state anymore. Couple in the state's increasingly suburban profile with the "Deep State" military presence of the Tidewater region in southeast Virginia and the state is hostile territory for Trump. With advertising incredibly expensive in the Washington DC media market, expect both sides to concede this one to Biden early...to whatever extent they haven't already. Prediction: Biden by 8.
Wisconsin--The Badger State is the only state I've gone back and forth on in the past year regarding where I think its 10 electoral votes will go in November. A few months ago, I dismissed it as a Trump state, with too many working-class whites and still-too-red suburbs around Milwaukee for the incumbent to be dethroned. But the decisive Democratic win in last spring's ill-advised pandemic primary, along with consistent polling showing strong Biden leads, has made me move this one to the lean Biden category. Of course, I made the same mistake in 2016 when every single polling data point showed Hillary decisively winning Wisconsin, but the slightest tailwind in the Democrats' direction is poised to make the difference this time just as it did in the Republican direction last time. So as of now, I'm predicting Biden narrowly flips Wisconsin. Prediction: Biden by 1.
So at the current count I have Biden winning with 290 electoral votes compared to Trump's 248. If I'm right, that still means Trump is only two states short of being re-elected, making Trump very much still in the game. As we saw in both 2012 and 2016, a relatively small shift in the same direction in a number of states can make a close race look like a decisive Electoral College blowout. After all, Obama won the national popular vote in 2012 by only two points more than Hillary won in 2016, but he won 332 electoral votes compared to Hillary's 232! Make a mental note of this and realize it won't require a major difference in vote count for me to be very wrong instead of right on the money.
Also make a mental note of the fact that we're probably looking at a huge amount of mail-in voting this election, meaning that whatever the vote count is at the end of election night will not reflect the outcome as there will still be millions of ballots coming in for days to come and many of them won't be counted for multiple weeks later. Several West Coast states have been trending toward this for several cycles now and 2020 will be the first trial balloon for it to go national. I'll go on record and say that I absolutely hate the idea of having to wait a month to find out who won the election, but it's very possible that will happen this year, and once the precedent for vote-by-mail nationally is established it will be our new normal, taking all the excitement out of "election night" for the rest of all of our lives. That's a good sign of how terrible of a year 2020 is that even election nights are gonna suck from now on.
It's also one more reason why I can't get into election 2020. We're told to expect high turnout, but we'll see. Without the campaign rallies and possibly no debates, the usual triggers that breed excitement in election campaigns will be nowhere to be found this year. And as the message gets around that we'll have to wait a month to find out who won, I don't think it'll be motivating to low-propensity voters who want instant gratification, not multiple weeks worth of legal challenges and candidate bickering. Election junkies may find it fun if every election is like 2000, but I'm not sure the same will be true of mostly indifferent college students.
And whichever party wins in 2020 can expect a historical drubbing in 2022. They'll be held accountable for fixing a pandemic and an economy beaten bloody because of that pandemic by an electorate expecting things to go back to normal quickly. The nature of our modern economy assures us things that get broken will not fix easily, and the recession-and-recovery model from generations past no longer applies the way it did in the 1960s. And if the Democrats win, they'll have to contend with an unhinged left-wing cultural insurgency that will feel all the more empowered to enforce their neo-McCarthyite manifesto on a population that will overwhelmingly reject it, and expect the Democrats to have their backs as they do so. I'm rooting for Biden and voting for Biden and other Democrats, but I'm not naive enough to believe voters aren't gonna hate them soon after they take office. I've never felt more disconnected from American politics, if the tardiness of my 2020 election preview is any indication.
Nonetheless, I'll return in the next couple of weeks with my thoughts on the 2020 Senate races.
posted by Mark at 8:57 PM
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