2020 Senate Race Predictions

 I've been dragging my feet on making my predictions for the 2020 Senate races just as I did with my 2020 Presidential race predictions, which to a degree makes sense as the primaries are still determining nominees and in some cases that might make a big difference in who wins and who doesn't.  But also, as I've said in regards to the Presidential race, the combination of the pandemic-stunted campaign season and my disapproval of the identity-obsessed direction the Democrats are going have greatly limited my interest in electoral politics this year.  I'm sure after Labor Day my enthusiasm will pick up some but I sure do miss those elections in the 2000s when I was wholly invested in the next election cycle almost immediately after the previous election cycle ended.  I'll also miss how black and white things were for me at the time in terms of the policy landscape and how it applied to the two parties....in comparison to today where both parties are drifting away from my worldview.

But pushing nostalgia aside and looking ahead to the election less than 70 days away, I think the Democrats have the whip hand to pick up the three seats (or possibly four if Trump's re-elected) that they need to gain control of the Senate, albeit barely.  Some races aren't yet defined with a small number of primaries still ahead, but we're close enough that some predictions can be made.  Time to do just that, race by race.....

Alabama--Due to a one in a million fluke where the Republicans nominated a pedophile in the 2017 special election to replace Jeff Sessions, the Democrats were able to eke out a one-point victory in a Senate race in one of the nation's most conservative states.  It was a truly breathtaking victory for the decidedly left-of-center Doug Jones, but it was also a fluke.  Running with Trump on the ballot in 2020, expect the Yellowhammer State to treat Doug Jones as they would a generic Democratic candidate rather than an incumbent and get crushed by Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville.  Everybody already knows this and Democrats are undoubtedly just grateful they found a way to hold a Senate seat in Alabama for three years.  Prediction:  Tuberville by 20.   (+1 seat for the GOP)

Alaska--The Democratic nominee in the recently determined primary for the Alaska Senate race isn't even a Democrat at all.  Al Gross is an Independent expected to caucus with the Democrats if he pulls off an upset.  How likely is that?  Not very, but in all seriousness his prospects are probably better than Doug Jones holding onto his seat in Alabama.   If the Democrats had nominated former Senator Mark Begich to fight to get back the seat he lost by one point six years ago, they might be well-positioned to upset Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in November, given Sullivan's lukewarm approvals and Alaska's relatively quirky, elastic, and blue-trending electorate.  I'm much more skeptical that Al Gross will be able to make anything work in such a limited time frame though and suspect Sullivan will be pretty decisively re-elected in the end.  This is nonetheless a race worth watching in the next 60 days.  Prediction:  Sullivan by 12.

Arizona--Republican incumbent Martha McSally, appointed last year to fill the seat of the late John McCain, looks to be in serious trouble in November.  A few factors have made her the clear underdog in holding this seat, including some unforced errors that don't appear to have made a good first impression on Arizona voters.  Beyond that, the state is clearly shifting leftward and Trump probably won't win it in November.  And most importantly, the Democrats have a strong candidate in astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who still has tremendous bipartisan sympathy after her nearly dying from gunshot wounds in 2011.  It seems almost a foregone conclusion at this point that Kelly win defeat McSally and pick up this seat for the Democrats, but it'll be hard for the Dems to get too excited knowing that even if he wins, Kelly win have to run for this seat again in 2022.  If Trump's out of the picture by then Kelly will have an extremely hard time hanging on to the seat.  Prediction:  Kelly by 6.  (Even)

Arkansas--Just two cycles ago, Democrat Mark Pryor seemed so unbeatable in the Natural State that Republicans didn't even field a candidate against him.  One cycle later, Pryor was defeated by an eyeball-popping 17 points.  One cycle after that, Republican incumbent Tom Cotton is now the one running without major-party opposition, despite being one of the nation's most conservative Senators.  It's the perfect metaphor for how abrupt and complete the partisan realignment of Arkansas has been.  Cotton has a libertarian opponent on the ballot but can expect to beat him by something resembling the 80-20 margin that Mark Pryor beat his libertarian opponent in 2008.

Colorado--Republicans have two incumbents in such tremendous peril that most election analysts already consider them toast.  One was the aforementioned Martha McSally in Arizona.  The other is Colorado's Cory Gardner, who took advantage of a GOP-leaning political climate and a terrible campaign ran by former Democratic Senator Mark Udall to win this seat in 2014 despite the sharp blue turn his state's taken in the last decade.  There's little to indicate Gardner has much chance to repeat his 2014 victory.  His challenger, former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper, brings a fair amount of crossover appeal if not necessarily much base enthusiasm to the race, but with Biden poised to kill it at the top of the ballot, all Hickenlooper will need is to coast on anti-Trump enthusiasm in Colorado to win pretty comfortably.  Prediction:  Hickenlooper by 7.  (+1 seat for Dems)

Delaware--The primary determining the candidates for the 2020 Delaware Senate race won't be determined until mid-September, but operating on the assumption that incumbent Democrat Chris Coons holds off his primary challenge, he can be expected to dominate in November with the tailwinds of favorite son Joe Biden at the top of the national ticket.  There's almost no scenario where I can imagine either of the Republican challengers find a way to wrestle this seat away from Democratic control.  Prediction:  Coons by 28.

Georgia (A)--Between general partisan polarization and the Peach State's slow trend in the Democrats' direction, I expect Republican incumbent David Perdue to have a fight on his hands in November.  As of now, I continue to predict a slim Trump advantage in Georgia and I expect Perdue's numbers to track pretty closely with Trump's.  However, I think there's a small faction of historically Republican suburban Atlanta voters that can't abide Trump but will stick with Perdue and some other downballot Republicans.  With that in mind, I think Perdue has a small but definitive advantage against Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff in November, but it's an open question whether Georgia's fast-changing demographic shift has occurred faster than I anticipated and creates an opening for an Ossoff upset.  I'm not ruling it out.  Prediction:  Perdue by 3.

Georgia (B)--Last year at this time all of the enthusiasm for picking up a Georgia Senate seat seemed to come from the special election to fill the seat of the resigned Johnny Isakson, currently held by the appointed and scandal-plagued Kelly Loeffler.  Ultimately though, this race is likely to prove the much harder victory for Democrats seeing as how November 3rd will simply be jungle primary night with two strong Republican candidates (including Loeffler) up against two competitive Democrats (with Ralph Warnock the current favorite).  Given that nobody is likely to get 50%, the top two vote-getters will face each other in a December runoff.  The nature of Georgia runoffs, where black turnout typically craters compared to the November general election, gives the Republicans a distinct advantage in holding this seat.  It's anybody's guess right now whether Loeffler hangs on or if the more conservative GOP challenger Doug Collins wins the most GOP votes, but particularly if Biden wins the Presidency in November, I really like the chances of whoever the GOP nominee is in pulling off the victory in the runoff.  Prediction:  Republican by 8.

Idaho--On paper, Democratic Senate nominee Paulette Jordan, a Native American and the 2018 Idaho gubernatorial nominee, is an intriguing candidate.  And she'd likely put up quite a fight in any swing state on the map.  But in deep red Idaho and facing off against noncontroversial two-term Republican incumbent Jim Risch, this race isn't even a blip on either party's radar as Risch is preordained to win another blowout.  Prediction:  Risch by 31.

Illinois--There's no doubt in anybody's mind that long-time Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin is gonna decisively win a fifth term this year in Illinois against his GOP challenger, Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran, but like so many other races in the Trump era, expect Durbin's victory to be vastly less comprehensive than it was in the past.  In 2002 and 2008, Durbin turned the Illinois map blue from corner to corner, winning nearly all of the state's 102 counties.  Since then, Illinois politics has realigned into a referendum against Chicago, an extreme example of the urban-rural divide nationally, and the overwhelming majority of Illinois counties will vote for Curran in November without knowing anything about him, simply because he's on the red team.  Durbin will still crush it statewide based on a rising tide of support from Chicago and its suburbs, but the map will show a different picture than will the margins without context.  Prediction:  Durbin by 22.

Iowa--At varying levels for the last three cycles, the Hawkeye State has been a disappointment to the Democrats, and I'm convinced that the aforementioned urban-rural divide in American politics portends considerably more disappointment for Democrats in the years ahead in Iowa, a state where the party's base was uniquely concentrated in small industrial cities before Trump co-opted them all (and consolidated farm support) under the GOP umbrella.  With that said, one of the bigger surprises of this election cycle thus far is that Republican incumbent Joni Ernst is at least nominally vulnerable.  Her seat is without question part of the 2020 Senate battleground and she has a credible challenger in Democrat Theresa Greenfield.  Ultimately though, I suspect polling is once again underestimating Republican strength among noncollege whites, both in the Presidential race and the Senate race, and that it will result in an election night result that looks far redder than currently anticipated.  Nonetheless, at this point I suspect Greenfield will get a little closer in the Senate race than Biden will in the Presidential race, but in the end Ernst will still pull it off with relative ease.  Prediction:  Ernst by 5.

 Kansas--Democrats pinned their hopes on the GOP nominating controversial right-wing former Secretary of State Kris Kobach to fill the seat vacated by retiring Republican Pat Roberts, in which case this race would have been on the battleground board.  Alas, that didn't happen in the recent primary as Republicans went with the more mainstream Congressman Roger Marshall as their Senate nominee.  While some Democrats are still bullish about their nominee, state legislator Barbara Bollier, even the most cockeyed optimists in the Democratic Party are pretty sure that Kansas is too heavy of a lift for them without Kobach as the GOP emissary.  Even then, it would have been a reach to elect the first Democratic Senator in Kansas since 1932.  Marshall might face some headwinds in the Democratic-trending Kansas City suburbs that Republicans a generation ago never faced in Kansas Senate races, but he'll still safely cruise in November.  Prediction:  Marshall by 16.

Kentucky--Delusional polling and robust fundraising numbers aside, Democratic challenger Amy McGrath has zero chance of unseating Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell in the Bluegrass State in November.  McGrath is a strong challenger on paper but has underperformed both in her 2018 House race and in this summer's Democratic primary for the Senate race.  Plenty of people undoubtedly believe that with McConnell's low approval ratings that he's still vulnerable, but in red-trending Kentucky, he's a shoo-in, particularly with Trump at the top of the ballot providing tailwinds.  Six years ago, McConnell faced another credible challenge from Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes....and he crushed her by 15 points even without an assist from Trump.  He'll have an even easier go of it--and a wider margin of victory--this time around.  Prediction:  McConnell by 22.

Louisiana--It's bonkers to recall that the last time this Pelican State Senate seat was up, it was held by a Democrat....former Senator Mary Landrieu.  She was defeated by Republican Bill Cassidy who goes into this race as an incumbent.  He's facing an attractive and well-credentialed African-American challenger in Democrat Adrian Perkins, but the only way Cassidy doesn't win a sweeping double-digit victory in this conservative state is if his current COVID-19 diagnosis prevents him from staying on the ballot.  Prediction:  Cassidy by 17.

Maine--There's been a drip-drip of evidence in the last year that long-time "moderate" Republican Senator Susan Collins has overstayed her welcome in Maine.  Most polls show her trailing Democratic challenger Sarah Gideon, and I've seen enough data points to believe she's indeed the underdog in her pursuit of a fifth term.  I'm not counting her out though, particularly since I think there will be a steep north-south divide in the race.  Typically, there hasn't been a huge partisan difference between the more cosmopolitan southern Maine and the white working-class northern portion of the state, but that's changed in the Trump era.  If WWC support for Trump and Collins is being lowballed in current polling, as I suspect it well could be, then I think Collins still has a fighting chance here.  But until I see any indication of that, I have to give the edge to Democrat Gideon.  Prediction:  Gideon by 2.   (+2 seats for Dems)

Massachusetts--It's still undecided whether Democratic incumbent Senator Ed Markey will be the nominee who lives to fight for another term in November of if Joe Kennedy III beats him in the primary.  Polling has been inconsistent but my money's on Markey prevailing, leaving Kennedy weakened for future endeavors.  Whoever wins, it's as close to a cinch as there is for the Democrats against token GOP opposition.  Prediction:  Markey by 33

Michigan--Not only is the Wolverine State front and center in the Presidential battleground, there's a competitive Senate race as well.  Democrat Gary Peters defied the electoral climate of 2014 and easily won an open seat, scoring a geographically comprehensive victory that is no longer possible after the Trump realignment.  Six years later, Peters faces Republican challenger John James, who overshot expectations rather impressively in 2018 against Debbie Stabenow, but still lost.  In the abstract, the more anonymous Peters should be an easier mark, but I give Peters the advantage because I suspect there will be really close alignment to Presidential voting, where I expect Biden to win.  Especially after James' comparative strong showing in 2018, I'm not counting him out, but he's a decided long shot in this environment.  Prediction:  Peters by 4

Minnesota--National pundits have had a generation-long bias toward assuming Democrats are a cinch to win in the Gopher State, and no matter how many times they're surprised by Republicans getting way closer than expected, they continually accept the narrative that Minnesota is close to safe for the Democrats.  I anticipate we'll see the same story in the 2020 Senate race, where Al Franken's Democratic successor Tina Smith goes for her first full term after winning the 2018 special election.  Her Republican opponent is former conservative firebrand radio host (and short-time Congressman) Jason Lewis, and not only do I think Lewis will vastly exceed the very low expectations of him, I think he'll actually outrun Trump by a point or so because of voters' familiarity with him in the south metro where he briefly served in Congress.  Tina Smith is a completely anonymity to most Minnesotans and will not go into the election with any real strength outside of her party base.  That should be enough to win, but with outstate Minnesota completely realigned into a GOP stronghold, expect Smith's numbers to track more closely to Hillary Clinton's 2016 numbers this year than what Smith got outstate in 2018.  Now I predicted a closer race for Smith in 2018 as well and she won by 10 points, but I'm sticking with my skepticism about her as a dominant performer this cycle and hope the Democrats don't get caught napping underestimating Lewis.  Prediction:  Smith by 4.

Mississippi--After the resignation of long-serving Republican Thad Cochran, the Magnolia State featured an open seat runoff contest in the fall of 2018 with Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith prevailing by a surprisingly weak high-single-digit victory against Democratic challenger Mike Espy.  Two years later, Hyde-Smth and Espy are having a rematch.  Some polling shows Espy within striking distance but I'm skeptical.  If Hyde-Smith's controversial comments weren't enough to sink her in the 2018 special election, I can't imagine they'll finish her off in a high-turnout Presidential year with Donald Trump on the ballot.  I suspect the race will revert to a more "generic Democrat versus generic Republican" posture this time with Hyde-Smith prevailing by predictable margins.  Prediction:  Hyde-Smith by 14.

Montana--While Democratic Governor and brief Presidential candidate Steve Bullock was an impressive recruit for the Democrats against Republican incumbent Steve Daines, I'm skeptical Bullock can do in a federal race what he did four years ago in the gubernatorial race and prevail against massive Trump headwinds at the top of the ballot.  Never count downballot Democrats out in Montana, but this one really seems like a reach given that Trump will win the state by upwards of 15 points and it's hard to envision that level of ticket-splitting for a federal race in the modern polarized era.  As we get closer to the election, I suspect this race will slowly start to fall off the board and won't be close in the end.  Prediction:  Daines by 9.

Nebraska--It's been quite a transformation from a decade ago when the northern plains states used to be competitive at the Senate and gubernatorial level even if Republicans dominated Presidentially.  Now pretty much every contest in the Cornhusker State and its northern neighbors is off the table for Democrats.  That would be true for this year's Senate race even if Democrats had a credible challenger to Republican incumbent Ben Sasse, himself a polarizing anti-Trump figure in today's GOP.  But considering the Democratic nominee Chris Janicek was disavowed by the party in June based on sexually explicit texts he sent about a female campaign staffer, there's no scenario where this race is on the table for Democrats.  Prediction:  Sasse by 35.

New Hampshire--Six years ago, Democratic Jeanne Shaheen had a surprisingly close race against Massachusetts carpetbagger Scott Brown, but she lives to fight another cycle and seems poised to have far less of a problem prevailing this time.  The Republican primary is still a few weeks away but there's no clear favorite and nobody particularly intimidating amongst her would-be GOP challengers.  It's too soon to assume the Granite State is realigning into a lock for Democrats, but anti-Trump sentiment seems likely to prevail in 2020 and will create a political climate that should be very favorable for Shaheen.   Prediction:  Shaheen by 11.

New Jersey--I had assumed Democratic Senator Cory Booker wasn't running for a second full term until I looked up the race online just now and confirmed that he was.  That's how under the radar this year's Garden State Senate race has been, with his challenger poised to be Republican Rik Mehta whose name I've never heard pronounced.  I never expected a Senate race in Jersey to be competitive this year, with the unpopular Trump at the top of the ballot, but the anecdotal evidence points to an easier Booker win than expected.  I'd be shocked if the margin went above 20 points though as New Jersey is too polarized and inelastic to produce much in the way of genuine landslides.  Prediction:  Booker by 17.

New Mexico--Two-term Democrat Tom Udall is retiring, leaving an open seat that has all but been conceded as a Democratic cinch, if that gives you any idea how much the partisan landscape has changed in New Mexico in the past generation.   Democratic Congressman Ben Lujan is the heir apparent to Udall who will almost certainly prevail against generic Republican Mark Ronchetti, and with the unpopular Trump at the top of the ballot, Lujan could really run up the score.  It'll be the first election in quite a few cycles where independent/libertarian Gary Johnson won't mess up the two-party calculus, so that makes the margin a little harder to predict.  Prediction: Lujan by 14.

North Carolina--While I knew Republican incumbent Thom Tillis would be vulnerable this year, I've been struck by just how soft his numbers have been in repeated polls.  Tillis has a strong challenger in straight-from-central-casting Iraq war veteran Cal Cunningham on the Democratic side and I suspect Cunningham's profile is buying him some early goodwill, but I'm not yet to the point where I'm counting Tillis out.  As the race winds down, I'm actually seeing far more upside potential for Tillis than for Cunningham, and can fairly easily imagine Tillis as this year's Ron Johnson or Pat Toomey, mounting a comeback when the polls prove to undercount conservatives yet again.  For now I'll anticipate Cunningham outperforms Biden and pulls it out, but I suspect this one's on the knife's edge and will be the closest race in the country.  Prediction:  Cunningham  by 1  (+3 seats for Dems)

Oklahoma--While the Sooner State has been pretty solid GOP territory for more than 30 years now, long-time Republican incumbent James Inhofe actually ceded a lot of territory to his Democratic challengers for his first races in 1996 and 2002, back when rural southern and eastern Oklahoma were still overwhelmingly Democrat.  It's hard to imagine with the current political climate in Oklahoma where no Democrat has won a single county in the state in any federal race since 2008.  That streak will likely continue in 2020 with Inhofe going for his fifth term against attractive but ultimately doomed Democratic challenger, Abby Broyles, a TV news reporter.  Curiously, if Broyles manages to win any counties in Oklahoma, it'll likely be Oklahoma County, its most populous, which was never competitive for Democrats until recently.  Even in Oklahoma, the urban-rural divide has driven a jarring realignment in the last generation.  Prediction:  Inhofe by 32.

Oregon--Another state with a stark urban-rural divide that's dramatically worsened in recent cycles is Oregon, where Democrat Jeff Merkley is a shoo-in for re-election.  Republican challenger Jo Rae Perkins is a QAnon follower and a generation ago would have been wiped out in a comprehensive statewide blowout much like some of Ron Wyden's early opponents were.  That was before Oregon politics realigned as a referendum on Portland, where every square inch of territory south and east of the Cascades will be impenetrably Republican at every level for the foreseeable future, even if the GOP runs conspiracy theorist loonies like Perkins.  It's a depressing state of affairs, but when I see the nightly footage of Portland getting destroyed by Antifa loonies, it makes sense in a way that it's come to this.  Prediction:  Merkley by 15.

Rhode Island--Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is a widely respected elder statesman running for his fifth term in a safely blue northeastern state.  His low-profile GOP challenger Allen Waters will struggle to gain a foothold and put up any kind of realistic challenge at all.  Not much more to say about this one.  Prediction:  Reed by 30.

South Carolina--Just as the Kentucky Senate race featuring Mitch McConnell has taken on an outsized profile for a race that will struggle to become competitive, the Senate race in the Palmetto State is also getting more attention than it deserves because the seat belongs to long-time Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham, long-time bugaboo of Democrats.  The Democrats have a highly credible candidate in former state party chair Jaime Harrison and I can easily imagine that Harrison holds Graham to single digits, but I don't buy that there's enough elasticity to South Carolina's electorate that Harrison can turn the number of Republican votes needed to oust Graham.  It'd be a less heavy lift than would beating McConnell in Kentucky, but still too heavy of a lift for the still-disagreeable demographic profile of South Carolina.  Prediction:  Graham by 9.

South Dakota--It's fascinating to reflect on the recent history of this seat, where it was part of the Senate battleground six years ago and was held by a Democrat for three terms before that.  But in the Trump era, South Dakota has taken a sharp right turn and Republican incumbent Mike Rounds is poised for a dominating re-election win in November against "some dude" Democratic challenger Daniel Ahlers.  Just like its neighbors North Dakota and Nebraska, it's difficult to imagine any race being politically competitive in South Dakota in the foreseeable future.  Prediction:  Rounds by 27.

Tennessee--There are few states where Democratic fortunes have collapsed more in the past generation than the Volunteer State, as was evidenced in the 2018 Senate race where the most perfect imaginable scenario for Democrats still yielded an 11-point defeat.  It won't even be that close in 2020, and for the second time this decade, the state's miserably weak Democratic Party failed to pull its favored recruit across the finish line for a primary win two weeks ago.  Now the Democrats are stuck with environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw as their nominee for the open seat vacated by Republican Lamar Alexander.  The GOP candidate is long-time party operative Bill Hagerty who will mop the floor up with Bradshaw in November.  Prediction:  Hagerty by 30.

Texas--Demographics and Trump-era realignment are turning the Lone Star State a more pale shade of red of late, potentially giving Republican incumbent John Cornyn his first competitive race since 2002.  While Democrats would have probably preferred it 2018 nominee Beto O'Rourke had ran again, the sharp left turn he took for his Presidential run probably renders him unelectable in the foreseeable future even in the new Texas.  Instead, the Democrats ended up with Air Force veteran M.J. Hegar, who is Hispanic and female, very much looking like the face of Texas' future compared to Cornyn, but who also seems like she needs to build her political resume a bit before being taken seriously as a candidate in expensive Texas against a heavyweight like Cornyn.  It's not unrealistic to imagine this race getting close, but just as I suspect David Perdue will outperform Trump among upscale professionals in Georgia, I suspect Cornyn will outperform Trump among the Dallas debutantes in Texas, meaning even if Biden threads a perfect needle and wins Texas, it seems unlikely he'll have the coattails to drag Hegar across the finish line with him.  Prediction:  Cornyn by 7.

Virginia--When Democrat Mark Warner first won his Senate seat in 2008, he won a comprehensive statewide blowout, victorious in just about every Virginia county.  He was expected to win another blowout in 2014, but it didn't work out that way as the Old Dominion dramatically polarized in the ensuing six years and Warner eked out only a one-point victory.  Running for his third term this cycle, Warner seems poised for a victory much closer to his 2008 victory than 2014, but expect his county map to look like much more like his 2014 victory as, just like everywhere else, most of rural Virginia has become a place where no Democrat has any chance of winning under any circumstance.  Luckily for Warner, the state's demographic shift assures him he doesn't need those voters, especially with lightweight GOP competition like his current challenger Daniel Gade.  Prediction: Warner by 16.

West Virginia--Only six years ago, left-of-center Democrat Jay Rockefeller held the Mountain State's Senate seat that's up again this year, but when Rockefeller retired, the Republicans pounced in his red-trending state.  Fast forward to 2020 and GOP incumbent Shelley Moore Capito is a shoo-in for a dominating re-election victory against Democratic challenger Paula Swearingen, an environmental activist who will have virtually no base of support in the coal mining state of West Virginia that will likely be Trump's best state in the country and quite possibly the most lopsided Senate race as well.  Prediction:  Capito by 40.

Wyoming--If any Senate race is more lopsided than West Virginia, it's likely to the Equality State, one of the most Republican states in the country.  Long-time GOP incumbent Mike Enzi is retiring, but the open seat he's leaving behind will inevitably be bequeathed to former GOP Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis.  Just like West Virginia, the hopeless Wyoming Democratic Party nominated an environmental activist in Merav Ben-David as their party's nominee.  She'll be completely destroyed in November.  Prediction:  Lummis by 39.

So I'm predicting the Democrats net three seats, which would produce a 50-50 Senate.  If Biden wins, that will be enough to give Democrats control of the Senate.  The speculation is that with that outcome, the Democrats would immediately dispense with the filibuster so they'd only need a bare majority to pass a sweeping legislative agenda with zero bipartisan buy-in necessary.  In one sense, this is a truly terrible idea in that Republicans could just as easily use the same bare majority to unravel anything Democrats pass with their bare majority as soon as they reclaim power.  On the other hand, in the partisan times we live in the country will invariably come to a screeching, ungovernable halt with the current arrangement of requiring 60 Senate votes to kill a filibuster.  There are basically good options for effectively running a government, and therein lies the problem...and the reason why I'm having a harder time getting into elections as the years pass and the partisan schism becomes more untenable.

Ultimately, if it comes down to a 50-50 split in the Senate, I don't think West Virginia's conservative Democratic Senator Joe Manchin would go along with any attempt to kill the filibuster.  He might even consider changing parties to help stop some variation of AOC's Green New Deal from being advanced.  It's hard to say for sure, but unless Democrats win some of these long shot races like Iowa and Georgia to get up to 52 or 53 seats, I don't think their leverage will be much stronger than it would be if Mitch McConnell maintained his Republican majority.  Of course, there's still 70 days to go and any number of these races could fall into and out of the battleground, so to be continued....