Final 2020 Presidential Predictions

I always consider it cheating to wait till two days before the election to make my final calls so, as is my tradition, I'm going on record in mid-October with my last round of predictions.  It's a risky gambit, insofar as there are consequences for being incorrect about mere predictions, as we saw in 2016 when the James Comey letter reopening the FBI investigation against Hillary Clinton dropped 11 days before the election.  In 2020 of all years, another October surprise every bit that consequential could very well emerge to disrupt this election as well.  But ultimately the level of polarization this cycle makes me doubtful that almost anything could alter the trajectory of this race, especially when accounting for the fact that 20% of the electorate has likely already cast a ballot.

So where do things stand?  Donald Trump is losing.  The magnitude of his pending defeat remains a matter of debate, but he's definitively behind and showing no signs of the momentum needed to reverse his spiral.  There are a number of scenarios I could have envisioned a year ago for how this race would go, but I'll admit the potential for a Jimmy Carter 1980-style incumbent drubbing was never under serious consideration.  Of course, a once-in-a-century global pandemic and ensuing economic recession was never on my radar for 2020 either.  If not for this pandemic, I'm mildly confident that Trump would be on a glide path to a narrow Electoral College victory next month.  The economy would still be humming at an impressive clip, unemployment would be at historic lows, and Trump would be on offense litigating the immigration positions that Democrats, including Biden, took in the primaries that have 65+% disapproval ratings.  He'd have an impressive story to tell about his favorite issue of trade agreements, which happens to overlap with the policy priorities of swing voters in Midwestern battleground states, and where even I must confess he dramatically exceeded my expectations on what was possible in the realm of "renegotiating NAFTA".  He'd probably even have more traction on his law and order messaging in response to this summer's protests and racial unrest had the national storyline not been so completely reset.

Yet that's not happening.  When Trump's campaign playbook was thrown out due to events, he never found his footing.  The swagger he enjoyed while on offense came across as juvenile, unserious, and most importantly, unfocused, when he was on defense with the world on fire on his watch.  His lack of professionalism served him well as a brash, insurgent outsider facing Hillary Clinton looking to build a coalition of voters salivating at the prospect of sticking it to the establishment....but it's served him horribly under the bright light of adversity.  His message was so on-point to his target audience four years ago, but it only recently hit me how much that is not the case this year.  Trump’s biggest messaging problem this cycle is that he's stuck in the conservative media bubble and has lost touch with those voters he successfully spoke to in 2016.  This last week at his Des Moines rally he tried to get an applause line by telling the crowd the “good news” that they finally got rid of Bruce Orr.  Needless to say, he’s defining victory downward from the days of building a wall and making Mexico pay for it.  The result has been that even those partial to his messaging couldn't really tell you what the message is for 2020, or especially for 2021 and beyond.

While demographic subsamples within polls tend to have a high margin of error and should be taken with a grain of salt, two consistent patterns are emerging that point to where Biden's margin is coming from.  The more predictable of the two is upscale, college-educated women from the suburbs. The more surprising second group is seniors.  The overwhelming consensus has been that old white guys were Trump's most unflappable base of support, but it seems there's one issue capable of souring this demographic on the current President, and that's a failure to take seriously a global pandemic putting their lives in jeopardy.

So is a massive Electoral College landslide imminent?  It's possible, but I'm still erring on the conservative side with my electoral predictions because it's unclear to me that there's been any erosion at all in Trump's support among noncollege whites, who also happen to be the most under-the-radar demographic for pollsters.  The Midwestern cohort of noncollege whites is the demographic that helped Obama turn his four-point popular vote win in 2012 into an Electoral College rout of 332-206 over Mitt Romney.  If those Obama-Trump voters are mostly back on board, then the sky is the limit for Biden in tipping the scales in states like Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina.  But I'm skeptical they are....because most of them stuck with the GOP in the 2018 midterms, and throughout the white working-class heavy Midwest, Republicans outperformed polls because of it.  There's always a danger in "fighting the last war" when trying to interpret polls and I may well be guilty of it, not appreciating how comprehensive Biden's pending coalition is.  That puts me in danger of making the wrong call on several states where I still think the undercounting of noncollege whites in polls means Trump will narrowly pull it out in a number of battleground states.  But without further adieu, I'll go on record in making those calls and we'll see how right my instincts are.....

Alabama--There's little dispute that Biden is poised to make huge gains among suburban and college-educated voters compared to Hillary four years ago, but will that trend extend all the way into the Deep South?  Will places like the Birmingham suburbs and aerospace-heavy Huntsville, Alabama, see gains for Biden comparable to what's expected elsewhere in the country?  I suspect to some degree they will, and am now doubtful that there will be too many states where Trump does as good or better as he did four years ago, which I wouldn't have expected to be the case last year at this time.  2016 Result....Trump +28.   2020 Prediction....Trump +23.

Alaska--The Last Frontier has long been the hardest state in the country to poll so there's little quality information available to base my prediction on, but Alaska has been getting closer than the 2-1 GOP stronghold it was a generation ago and I expect that pattern to continue this year, even though it will likely remain comfortably red.  2016 Result....Trump +15.   2020 Prediction....Trump +10.

Arizona--Little has changed since July when I last predicted a modest Biden win in the Grand Canyon State, which has trended decisively Democratic in the Trump era.  The core of this realignment has come from Maricopa County, which includes all of metropolitan Phoenix and more than 60% of the state's population.  For generations, it's been one of the nation's most heavily populated Republican strongholds.  But with racial diversification and upscale seniors no longer onboard with Trump, Maricopa County will no longer be a GOP bastion in 2020, and its flipping will take the state of Arizona to the blue column with it.  2016 Result.....Trump +3.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +4.

Arkansas--Not that long ago, the Natural State was the only Southern state that was remotely winnable for Democrats.  Now it's one of the least competitive GOP strongholds in the nation.  Even so, there are some indications that the Little Rock suburbs are shifting in a blue direction just as suburbs elsewhere are.  A surge in Democratic voting among upscale suburbanites means less in Arkansas than it does in most of the country, but I suspect even here it will be enough to move the numbers closer for Biden than what the state's former First Lady scored four years ago.  2016 Result....Trump +27.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +24.

California--A decade ago, I figured it was only a matter of time until there would be a correction to the Democrats' domination of the Golden State with at least some degree of realignment that made Republicans competitive in more of the state's territory.  Boy was I wrong.  Democrats currently hold a mind-bending 46 of the state's 53 U.S. House seats and that dominance makes clear how comprehensive the party's clutch is over California and why it will be one of Trump's worst states next month.   2016 Result....Hillary +30.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +34.

Colorado--A generation ago, Colorado leaned red.  Its politics have shifted left of the national average with the help of the exact demographic groups most hostile to Trump....nonwhites and upscale college-educated voters in suburban Denver and granola ski resort towns dotting the Rockies.  It won't end well for Trump there this year.   2016 Result....Hillary +5.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +10.

Connecticut--I expect the Northeast to shift more toward Biden than any other region this year as, aside from the shrinking ranks of white ethnics in crumbling mill towns, its demographics really don't fit Trumpism.   The Nutmeg State is likely to be at the forefront of this steep shift to Biden.  2016 Result....Hillary +14.   2020 Prediction....Biden +23.

Delaware--Even if Biden wasn't Delaware's home state Senator for nearly a half century, the state's demographic profile would be disastrous for Trump.  Since Biden is a Delaware native son, expect him to absolutely clean up here.   2016 Result.....Hillary +11.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +27.

District of Columbia--Even as white "deep state" liberals gentrify the formerly majority black capital city, it just keeps getting bluer and bluer each cycle, and likely will again this year.   2016 Result.....Hillary +87.   2020 Prediction....Biden +89.

Florida--It wouldn't be an election cycle in America without a complex matrix of competing demographic forces making the Sunshine State a bear cat to predict.  Seniors and suburban voters are trending Democrat this year, which would seem to be a good omen for Biden.  But in the last decade, Florida has been a magnet for a particularly conservative and tax-averse cohort of retirees.  Furthermore, the South Florida Cuban community was uniquely chilly toward Trump four years ago but polling this year has consistently shown they've grown more comfortable with him by double-digit margins.  Just as is always the case, statewide polling is showing a narrow Democratic edge with some regional polling out of the Tampa-St. Petersburg area really pointing to huge movement toward Biden.  I've been vindicated multiple times predicting a narrow Republican win in the Sunshine State in recent cycles and will do so again this year, but it's on the knife's edge and I wouldn't be surprised if Biden flipped it.  The most surprising result would be a decisive win (more than 3 points) in either direction.  2016 Result.....Trump +1.   2020 Prediction....Trump +1.

Georgia--The Peach State has not been a genuine battleground for a generation but it sure is this year.  The disconnect is pretty amusing as the pollsters are out in full force this year surveying Georgia, with a pretty even split between ties, narrow Biden leads, and narrow Trump leads, all within the margin of error.  On the other hand, neither candidate has treated Georgia like a swing state until the last couple of weeks, limiting ad buys in the media markets.  I guess it makes a degree of sense because the Atlanta market is expensive and the longer they waited before investing there, the better financial situation their campaigns would find themselves in.  Still, it felt like nobody believed Georgia was really part of the battleground until recently.  Trump was campaigning in Macon this past Friday, decidedly not the place his campaign would want to be defending 18 days before the election.  Despite the rapid demographic shift in Georgia and the unmistakable movement among upscale whites in the Atlanta suburbs, I'm betting the good old boys have not been sufficiently polled and that the Old South pulls out one more victory for the GOP here.  But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Biden crosses the finish line ahead of Trump by a nose either.   2016 Result....Trump +5.   2020 Prediction....Trump +2.

Hawaii--Moving onto a much easier jurisdiction to predict, the Aloha State couldn't possibly be more demographically hostile terrain for Donald Trump.  The state is usually a reliable Democratic stronghold and will be again this year.   2016 Result....Hillary +32.   2020 Prediction....Biden +36.

Idaho--Only nine states have voted Republican in the last 13 Presidential elections.  Idaho is one of them....and its streak will certainly continue.  Even here though, I suspect some diversifying demographics, along with continued coolness toward Trump among Mormons, will cut Trump's margin from four years ago.   2016 Result....Trump +32.   2020 Prediction....Trump +26.

Illinois--The suburbs of Chicago used to be the Republican counterweight that made the GOP competitive in the Land of Lincoln.  That's still the case some cycles, but even four years ago Trump cratered in the Chicago suburbs.  This year, he'll likely do even worse there.  The question now is whether the downstate counties will perform well enough for Trump to keep Biden's margins from reaching what favorite son Obama scored there in 2008.  Even downstate, I think Trump probably will probably see some erosion.  2016 Result....Hillary +17.  2020 Prediction.....Biden +23.

Indiana--It's crazy to recall the increasingly conservative Hoosier State's brief dance with Democrats in 2006 and 2008, going so far as to cast its 11 electoral votes for Obama in 2008.  It's certainly reverted to its dark red state form since then, even with the Indianapolis metro area swinging sharply in Democrats' direction.  I saw one Indiana poll suggesting the race is competitive but I'm not buying it, especially after Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly's six-point defeat against his empty suit challenger in the heavily Democratic year of 2018.  Indiana will be less red than four years ago, but will still be very red.   2016 Result.....Trump +19.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +12.

Iowa--Due to the national tide, I'm no longer expecting the high-single-digit Trump victory in the Hawkeye State I was predicting in July, but I still think Trump will win it decisively despite polls suggesting the state is tied.  Iowa has among the highest rural, noncollege white vote in the country and I have serious doubts that those voters are moving to Biden in significant numbers.  While what passes for big cities and suburbs in Iowa are undoubtedly shifting strongly for Biden, I suspect pollsters are weighting these voters too heavily just as they have the last three cycles.  On the other hand, if Biden pulls off a win in Iowa and we see an electoral map where those Mississippi River valley counties in eastern Iowa are colored blue again, then I'll take my lumps and admit I was wrong about the realignment of the WWC Obama-Trump voter in the Midwest moving permanently and irrefutably to the GOP column.  But I have my doubts.   2016 Result....Trump +9.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +4.

Kansas--There's some intriguing chatter coming out of the Sunflower State that the long-standing unwieldy coalition of rural conservatives and Kansas City moderates is breaking down to the point that Biden may be within striking distance in the state.  I'm skeptical the Republican schism will be that dramatic, but given the outsized prevalence of suburban Kansas City in the state's dominant Republican Party and their slow-motion divorce from the GOP in the Trump era, I'm suspecting the closest race in Kansas in 28 years, albeit with Trump still winning.   The disastrous gubernatorial tenure of Sam Brownback really seems to have impacted the state of play in Kansas, and Trump has accelerated the realignment.  2016 Result....Trump +21.    2020 Prediction......Trump +11.

Kentucky--Given its predominantly rural and Appalachian profile, the Bluegrass State will almost certainly remain one of Trump's best states and probably won't swing the Democrats' direction as strongly as the rest of the country, but last year's gubernatorial race nonetheless offered a preview of potentially shifting sands in some regions.  Metropolitan Louisville, Lexington, and the previously die-hard conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati will probably all swing by double-digits to Biden this year.  It's possible there will be some leftover angst from the Breonna Taylor incident that will cut both ways electorally, however, with rural Kentucky potentially getting even redder.  Either way, it won't be close.   2016 Result.....Trump +30.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +26.

Louisiana--Like Kentucky, we got a bit of a preview of where the partisan winds are blowing in Louisiana last year with their gubernatorial race and the patterns matched the expected trends nationally, with rural areas getting redder than ever while the suburbs are shifting substantially blue.  The Pelican State is far too heavy of a lift for Biden and I think the Democrat shift here will lag that of the country at large, but those New Orleans and Baton Rouge suburbs will undoubtedly help move the needle a little away from Trump this year just like elsewhere.   2016 Result.....Trump +20.    2020 Prediction.....Trump +18.

Maine--In my review of Connecticut, I predicted that the Northeast seemed poised to swing more towards Biden than any other region of the country.  The most consequential impact of this trend will be seen in Maine, which had a Trumpy profile four years ago despite a narrow Hillary win, but where polls indicate a reversion to form to the Obama years where Maine went Democrat by double digits.  Maine apportions its electoral votes based on Congressional district wins and one of the few changes from my August predictions is that I now expect Biden will flip the ME-02 district in the northern part of the state, which would be no small feat given Trump's double-digit domination there in 2016.  That call is still a bit of a stretch, but the polling bears it out.   2016 Result....Hillary +3.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +11.   ME-02 2016 Result.....Trump +10.   ME-02 2020 Prediction.....Biden +1.

Maryland--The DC orbit has completely devoured what was already one of the best states in the country for Democrats, and the Old Line State will only get bluer and further out of reach for Republicans with each election cycle, at least in federal races.   2016 Result....Hillary +27.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +32.

Massachusetts--The Bay State is full of white ethnic conservative Democrats and still has a lot of decaying old mill towns where I expected Trump's message would be catnip in 2016 and thus predicted a dramatic narrowing of typical Democratic margins there.  To my surprise, Hillary improved upon Obama's margins in the state and precinct returns suggest Massachusetts may have been one of the few places in the country where downscale whites rejected Trump.  With that in mind, the highly educated profile of the rest of the state will drive its politics even further toward Biden this year.   2016 Result....Hillary +28.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +33.

Michigan--Trump's surprise narrow win in the Wolverine State four years ago can be explained entirely by a dramatic turnout decline in Detroit, where tens of thousands of fewer black voters showed up compared to 2012.  If even half of those voters turn out again this time, Biden will win Michigan, and should be accompanied with a sharp shift toward Biden in the suburbs of Detroit and Grand Rapids to help him run up the score.  The old Michigan map with considerable patches of blue-leaning rural areas is likely gone though, as those rural voters will probably stick with Trump.  2016 Result.....Trump +0.2.   2020 Prediction....Biden +6.

Minnesota--I'm coming around to the idea that the Gopher State will be a relatively comfortable win for Biden this year, despite some early hesitation.  And certainly, Biden's coalition is unlikely to look much like Obama's, who won significant patches of rural territory in every corner of the state.  Biden's victory will be brought about almost exclusively by the Twin Cities and probably fast-growing Rochester in southeastern Minnesota.  That's very disappointing for someone who grew up in rural Minnesota and loved how the state's rural regions held together for Democrats longer than demographically similar areas did elsewhere in the country, but at least for the time being a win is a win.  2016 Result....Hillary +1.   2020 Prediction....Biden +7.

Mississippi--The only thing remotely unpredictable about the Magnolia State is whether black turnout is strong enough for the Democrats to lose merely by low-teen margins or whether black turnout lags and the Democrats lose by margins in the high teens.  Four years ago, it was the latter and Trump won comfortably.  With a nominally competitive Senate race this year, I'm expecting black turnout will tick up and probably trim Trump's winning margins a bit.  2016 Result....Trump +18.  2020 Prediction....Trump +14.

Missouri--There are some tea leaves indicating the Show Me State might be less Trumpy in 2020 than it was four years ago, despite the state's unmistakable Republican trend in the last 20 years.  Polls are indicating a single digit race and this past summer's Medicaid expansion vote passed due to blistering margins of support out of Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs.   I expect Biden will hang on to much of those suburban gains, but the rest of the state will remain so unforgivingly red that Trump will still win decisively.   2016 Result....Trump +19.   2020 Prediction....Trump +13.

Montana--The Treasure State is one of the few truly flexible states in the country politically, even with the substantial Republican advantage in Presidential elections.  As recently as 2008, McCain only beat Obama there by two points.  Polling for this cycle strikes me as a bit too bullish for Biden, undercounting noncollege votes just as has been the case all over the country in recent years, but I do expect a sharp move away from Trump, aided by the fact that the state's growth centers are all heavily Democratic.  With that said, I wouldn't think there'd be much appetite for Biden's palate of mask mandates and social distancing requirements in a place like Montana, so I'm tempering expectations some.   2016 Result.....Trump +21.  2020 Prediction....Trump +12.

Nebraska--The divergence in the politics of the Cornhusker State over the past generation has been remarkable.   It used to lean even more heavily Republican but its electorate was much more elastic in considering Democrats for downballot races.  Its no longer elastic, but it is regionally divided, with the Omaha area that used to be as Republican as the rest of the state having shifted decidedly blue.  This matters a lot in Nebraska since the state apportions its electoral votes based on Congressional district wins.  As a result, even though Trump will cruise statewide, the campaign has all but conceded that Biden will comfortably win the Omaha-centered Congressional district and yield a single electoral vote for Biden even amidst a double-digit statewide defeat.   2016 Result....Trump +26.   2020 Prediction....Trump +21.    NE-02 2016 Result....Trump +2.    NE-02 2020 Prediction....Biden +5.

Nevada--I still don't know what to think of the state of affairs in the Silver State.  I'm confident Biden will win it but I'm not sure by how much.  During the Obama years, it seemed like Nevada had become out of reach for Republicans, with diversifying demographics making it an increasingly untenable fit for the GOP.  But in 2016, the shrinking white population consolidated around Trump and made it close, and there are some indications that that trend is holding, with casino workers in particular looking like a Trump-friendly demographic.  With that in mind, I'm betting that Nevada moves less in Biden's direction than the country at large next month, but still enough for a comfortable win.   2016 Result....Hillary +2.   2020 Prediction....Biden +6.

New Hampshire--The narrowest Democratic win of 2016 is very unlikely to be that narrow four years later.  In keeping with my prediction of the Northeast being a Biden stronghold, I expect New Hampshire to comfortably consolidate into the Biden column.  2016 Result.....Hillary +0.4.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +9.

New Jersey--What's left of the white ethnic population in the Garden State moved a bit to Trump four years ago, particularly in South Jersey, but less than what I expected.  The tea leaves this year suggest Trump is struggling to even maintain that foothold in 2020, and I foresee the most lopsided Democratic victory in Jersey in generations.  2016 Result....Hillary +14.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +19.

New Mexico--With former Governor Gary Johnson finally off the ballot this year, and not getting 9% of the Presidential vote like he did four years ago, there's a bit more volatility in New Mexico than in most states.  Given the state's demographic profile, however, it's a good bet that an outsized share of that Johnson vote is going to Biden this year.  It's been close to a year since the Trump campaign even entertained the notion of a potential victory there, and I suspect that's for good reason.   2016 Result....Hillary +8.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +14.

New York--Particularly in upstate New York, Trump made significant gains four years ago compared to Romney four years earlier.  But early tea leaves suggest that like the rest of the Northeast, the Empire State has comprehensively turned on the man who has one of the nation's tallest skyscrapers there, both in the city and upstate.   2016 Result.....Hillary +23.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +31.

North Carolina--Polling indicates a competitive race in the Tar Heel State, but a notably consistent pattern has been a smaller shift toward Biden here than the rest of the country.  Given the regular undersampling of Republican demographics in polls, I'm still inclined to bet on Trump pulling this one out this year.  If Biden does hold on to win, then we may have finally reached the demographic tipping point that's always seemed right at the Democrats' fingertips in this state.  2016 Result.....Trump +4.  2020 Prediction.....Trump +1.

North Dakota--I never expected Hillary Clinton to be "popular" in the Flickertail State, but the monstrous drubbing she received at the hands of Trump was nonetheless eye-popping for a state where McCain only beat Obama by single digits.  In the four years since 2016, the North Dakota oil boom has ebbed quite a bit and the state's small cities like Fargo and Bismarck have demographic profiles increasingly consistent with metro areas that appear to be shifting massively toward Biden elsewhere in the country.  North Dakota won't be particularly close this cycle but I still expect it move Democrat proportionally more than just about anywhere else.  2016 Result.....Trump +36.    2020 Prediction....Trump +23.

Ohio--If you believe the polls, the Buckeye State is a jump ball this cycle even after a gigantic swing to Trump in 2016.  I don't believe the polls, expecting that once again working-class whites who love Trump are being undersampled in this most white working-class state.  I can buy that Biden is surging in suburban Columbus and Cincinnati just as he is in demographically similar places elsewhere in the country, but there just aren't enough places that fit this profile in Ohio to make the state within reach for Biden.  While I'm reining in expectations for Trump's margin compared to July, I'm still betting on a decisive Trump victory in Ohio.   2016 Result....Trump +8.   2020 Prediction....Trump +4.

Oklahoma--Long one of the reddest states in the country, the Sooner State has likely bottomed out for Democrats with a slight rebound on the horizon.  The Oklahoma City metro area, long one of the most conservative in America, is driving the Democratic insurgence, to the point of a surprise Democratic win in its Congressional seat in 2018.  But to be clear, Oklahoma will still be bright red for Trump this year, its rural areas having already realigned to crimson red.   2016 Result.....Trump +36.   2020 Prediction....Trump +28.

Oregon--As Portland becomes an endlessly disruptive Antifa stronghold plagued by a near-daily tidal wave of cultural unrest and radicalization, the rest of the state is showing signs of realigning.  That won't be enough to save Donald Trump in the Beaver State, where he never had a chance to begin with, but does point to a future where Oregon elections could become competitive again.   2016 Result.....Hillary +11.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +14.

Pennsylvania--The easy political bet on the Keystone State in recent years has always been that the blue-trending Philadelphia suburbs would save the day for Democrats even as much of the rest of the state trends the other way.  That didn't happen in 2016 and there were some signs not that long ago that it might not happen in 2020 either, but polls are really beginning to consolidate for Biden in a way they never did for Hillary four years ago, with most polling pointing to huge Biden gains in the upscale Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs.  On the other hand, I'm less confident now than I was in July that Biden will glean any hometown advantage in traditionally Democratic northeastern Pennsylvania near Scranton, a white working-class stronghold where I suspect Trump's messaging still prevails and produces margins much closer to 2016 than in 2012 or before.   2016 Result.....Trump +1.   2020 Prediction....Biden +4.

Rhode Island--The Ocean State has long been one of the most Democratic states in the country, but the party's strength there has always been somewhat of a mirage, with conservative white ethnics aligning with the Democrats largely because it was a one-party state, creating a feedback loop where voters always follow the marching orders of the machine in the name of patronage and the cycle is self-reinforcing.  Trump shook that up a bit and moved the needle dramatically his direction in 2016.  The state wasn't close and won't be this year either, but I suspect those blue-collar Italians and Irish will continue to vote in 2020 much like they did four years earlier, and take Rhode Island out of the running of being in the top tier of Democratic states.   2016 Result.....Hillary +16.    2020 Result.....Biden +19.

South Carolina--As was previewed in the 2018 midterms, the Charleston area seems to be driving a Democratic shift in the Palmetto State.  It's too soon to say how large and how durable that shift will be but I've seen enough to be convinced that this notoriously inelastic state will hand Trump his weakest margin of victory for any Republican in decades, potentially with even more surprises downballot.   2016 Result.....Trump +14.   2020 Prediction....Trump +7.

South Dakota--The Republicans consolidated support in both of the Dakotas in recent years and I suspect that will continue in 2020 with the Mount Rushmore State's trendline drifting considerably to the right of the country.  With that said, the demographics of the fast-growing Sioux Falls area seem very Biden-friendly and will probably limit Trump's growth potential elsewhere in the state.   2016 Result.....Trump +30.   2020 Prediction....Trump +23.

Tennessee--Along with neighboring Arkansas, the Volunteer State has morphed from one of the most moderate states of the Old Confederacy to an uncontested Republican stronghold in the past generation.  For every trend toward Democrats in the state's population centers of Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, the Republicans find a way to squeeze even more consolidated support out of the rest of the state.  Trump probably won't dominate quite as thoroughly as he did four years ago, but Tennessee will remain one of the most hopeless causes for Democrats in the nation.   2016 Result....Trump +26.   2020 Prediction....Trump +22.

Texas--I'm really flying blind in trying to understand how badly the long-dominant GOP is slumping in the Lone Star State.  The 2018 midterm was an alarming red flag for the party, and heading into the final weeks of this cycle, the flush-with-cash Biden campaign is pouring resources into Texas advertising that the Trump campaign won't be able to afford to reciprocate.  A Biden upset remains a long shot, but at this point decidedly less unlikely even than it was in July.   2016 Result....Trump +9.  2020 Prediction.....Trump +3.

Utah--The only state where I can definitively predict Trump will improve upon his 2016 number is the Beehive State, given that Mormon Evan McMullin ran as a third-party conservative and got 21% of the vote, holding Trump to 45% of the overall vote.  Without McMullin or a credible third-party conservative option for disenchanted Mormon votes to pull the lever for this year, I can predict that Trump will go well over 50% of the vote this time, but that Biden will also do much better than the 27% Hillary Clinton got in Utah.  This ultimately creates something of a mirage of Trump improvement in Utah, but he will most definitely still win in what had been the strongest state for Republicans in the country for generations.   2016 Result....Trump +18.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +22.

Vermont--Soft turnout and heightened third-party voting both contributed to a shrunken Hillary Clinton margin than Democrats have been used to in recent years in the liberal Green Mountain State.  She still won by a landslide, however, and I expect Biden to consolidate most of the third-party migrators this cycle.   2016 Result.....Hillary +28.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +34.

Virginia--Only a generation removed from being one of the most reliably Republican Southern states, the Old Dominion is now uncontested by both parties and a Democratic cinch up and down the ballot.  The fact that the state has largely become a DC outpost over the years has certainly helped with that, and its diversifying demographics and high concentration of college-educated whites is accelerating the state's realignment as considerably bluer than the national average.   2016 Result....Hillary +5.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +12.

Washington--Just like in neighboring Oregon, I suspect a degree of realignment in the years ahead in the Evergreen State to push back against the left-wing excesses of Seattle.  We might even see some of that in 2020 in the state's smaller cities and certainly in rural areas east of the Cascades, but it won't be enough to get wildly unpopular Donald Trump anywhere close to the finish line.  2016 Result....Hillary +16.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +19.

West Virginia--Have Democrats bottomed out in the Almost Heaven State?  It would be hard for Trump to do better there than he did against Hillary Clinton where he won every single county in the state by double digits, and the little available polling suggests one of the biggest swings in the nation toward Biden.  But if there's one thing you can set your watch by every election cycle it's polling in West Virginia that lowballs Republican strength by huge margins.  Nonetheless, I expect both things will be true.   West Virginia will continue to be one of Trump's best states in the country in 2020, but that Biden will see some of his best improvements compared to Hillary here.  2016 Result....Trump +42.   2020 Prediction....Trump +33.

Wisconsin--I've been very surprised by the consistency of polling that shows Biden with a comfortable lead in the Badger State in recent months.  I had written it off as a lean Trump state as recently as six months ago.  Of course, there was no other state where the polls were more consistently wrong in 2016 than in Wisconsin so I'm still a bit hesitant, but nonetheless accept with the size and consistency of Biden polling leads that this is a done deal.  But the big question....where is this improvement coming from?   The notoriously Republican stronghold suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee?  Democrats coming home in rural western Wisconsin?  A combination of both?  There are a number of mysteries I can't wait to see solved on election night and the source of the vote shift in Wisconsin is near the top of the list.  2016 Result...Trump +1.   2020 Prediction....Biden +5.

Wyoming--Trump's best state in 2016 and probably his best state in 2020.  Will Biden improve upon Hillary Clinton's terrible numbers?  I suspect so, but not by a ton.  There hasn't been any polling to give me any indication either way.   2016 Result...Trump +48.   2020 Prediction....Trump +43.

 

So roughly three months after I made my first round of state-by-state predictions for the Presidential race, my final call results in a shift of exactly one electoral vote.  In July, I predicted Biden would prevail 290-248.  In mid-October, with the addition of the second Congressional district in Maine to Biden's haul, I'm predicting 291-247 Biden.  Now obviously if my guesses are less than two percentage points off in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina alone, that would mean the difference of 60 electoral votes shifted from Trump's column to Biden's, if that gives you any indication of how narrow of a breeze is needed to tip Electoral College votes.  It also reinforces the point I made last month about how tremendous the Republican advantage currently is in the Electoral College given that I'm currently predicting a 6-7-point Biden advantage in the popular vote, similar to what Obama got in 2008, yet only 291 electoral votes for Biden compared to 365 electoral votes for Obama.   Still, even my conservative estimate should be enough to make it clear within 48 hours of election night that Biden is the winner with a comfortable enough margin that Amy Coney Barrett is unlikely to get the chance to be the spoiler.

Barring an explosive October surprise that reverses momentum at breakneck speed with two weeks to go, the biggest takeaway from this election is likely to be that Democrats chose wisely with their nominee.  As uninspiring as the geriatric Biden is to most people, he nonetheless seems poised to channel the enthusiasm of base Democratic voters who hate Trump while hanging on to more moderate Democrats and passing the acceptability threshold of conservative-leaning independents in the suburbs.  There weren't many Democrats in this year's primary who could have done that, and despite their deep misgivings about Trump, I think a significant faction of Biden's pending coalition would not be onboard if most of the other Democrats in the primary field had prevailed, particularly Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

Beyond that, Biden had incredible luck in being able to stay out of the limelight and not expose his glaring downsides as a candidate as would inevitably have happened in a traditional campaign.  Of course what has served him well during the campaign will serve him poorly come January when he owns the mess he's inheriting.  Democrats had best enjoy their big win next month, take advantage of it when it comes to redistricting, and then hang on tight for a brutal rebuke in the cycles ahead.  Trump may have deepened divisions in America, but they were festering long before he came around and seem unlikely to ebb as every negative ongoing trend in American life worsens as a consequence of COVID.  The first week in November should be exciting as most Presidential elections are, but after that there won't be too many smiles to enjoy by either party, or the voting public, for quite some time moving forward.