Early Predictions for 2022 Senate Races

With each passing day, it's looking better for the Republicans' prospect of picking up the Senate next November.  Whether it be the stubborn persistence of COVID, the inflation-besieged economy, or record numbers of violent crime in America's cities, just about everything seems completely out of control right now.  Historically speaking, that means the party controlling the White House is poised to take a serious black eye in the next election cycle.  

Now I suppose it's possible that the Omicron variant fizzles out early in the year, puts COVID behind us, and puts up on a path to steady, predictable growth for the second and third quarter of 2022.  And if that happens, I supposed it's possible that it can be done without a corresponding surge in energy prices.  And maybe if everything is steady and smooth with the economy, suburban swing voters will shrug off their increasing cultural concerns about the rising tide of crime, mismanaged borders, and racialist dogma that has led this demographic to trend conservative since the 2020 election.  Also, maybe the Supreme Court overturning Roe vs. Wade will make the abortion debate real for this largely pro-choice demographic and keep them in the Democratic fraternity another cycle.

Maybe.

But it's far more likely that the current unhappy mood of the electorate is baked in to the point that even nominal improvement in the months ahead isn't likely to lead voters keeping the same people in charge.  And if current conditions worsen between now and then, the Democrats could really be looking at a historic blowout.  It's too early to put too much stock into my early predictions, but I'm gonna make them anyway just as a baseline to see how well they hold up 11 months from now.

I'll start with the Senate races I think are all but guaranteed to maintain their current partisan hold, barring late-breaking retirements or crazy developments....

Likely or Safe Democrat

California--Alex Padilla

Connecticut--Richard Blumenthal

Hawaii--Brian Schatz

Illinois--Tammy Duckworth

Maryland--Chris Van Hollen

New York--Chuck Schumer

Oregon--Ron Wyden

Vermont--Open (Pat Leahy)

Washington--Patty Murray

The only two I'd say are a bit less than a slam-dunk here are Illinois, which is winnable for the right kind of Republican if all the stars align, and Vermont if popular Republican Governor Phil Scott were to jump into the open-seat race.  The GOP would be long shots in these states even in a perfect storm though.

Next are states I think are gimmes for Republicans barring unexpected developments, even the possibility of primary upsets where arch-conservative candidates that would have been unelectable a decade ago would still be very heavy favorites in today's toxically tribal electoral environment.

Likely or Safe Republican

Alabama--Open (Richard Shelby)

Arkansas--John Boozman

Idaho--Michael Crapo

Indiana--Todd Young

Iowa--Chuck Grassley

Kansas--Jerry Moran

Kentucky--Rand Paul

Louisiana--John Kennedy

Missouri--Open (Roy Blunt)

North Dakota--John Hoeven

Oklahoma--James Lankford

South Carolina--Tim Scott

South Dakota--John Thune

Utah--Mike Lee

As I said in the intro, there are some crazy hypotheticals out there where right-wing GOP primary challengers could be the nominees in states like Iowa and Missouri.  Or perhaps John Thune will retire in South Dakota.  But under no circumstance with the current political fault lines could I see any candidate with an (R) next to their name losing in any of those states.

So what's left in the battleground, on the top-tier of competitive races or lower down the list?  Let's break it down....

Alaska--The Last Frontier is having an oddball all-party jungle primary this year, which will likely lead to Democratic support helping moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski keep her job even if there's a revolt by more conservative voters who will vote for a candidate to Murkowski's right.  There's enough ambiguity here that I'm not ruling out something crazy, including the possibility of Murkowski becoming an independent and caucusing with Democrats.  That's a definite long shot though.  The most likely scenario is that Murkowski prevails in the jungle primary, stays a Republican, and wins her fourth full term to the Senate.

Arizona--Democrat Mark Kelly eked out a 2-point win in the special Senate election in 2020 to fill John McCain's seat, but won far less convincingly than was expected even as Biden was narrowly winning the state in the Presidential race.  There are no top-tier Republican challengers presently, but AZ's Attorney General Mark Brnovich seems like the early frontrunner.  Ultimately though, it's hard to imagine an electorate as Democrat-friendly as what was seen in 2020 emerging again in November, and that spells big trouble for incumbent Democrat Kelly no matter who his GOP challenger is considering he only narrowly won with a friendly electorate.  Smells like a GOP gain to me.   GOP+1

Colorado--The Rocky Mountain State has taken a sharp turn to the left in the last generation and after the decisive Democratic wins in the Presidential and Senate races in 2020, it's hard to argue that two-term Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet isn't favored for a third term.  But despite being two time zones away, Colorado's demographics are very similar to those of Virginia, where a Republican just won an upset in last month's gubernatorial race, so I'm not ruling out a similar upset in Colorado.  None of the GOP candidates seem particularly intimidating at this point, but the same could have been said about Glenn Youngkin in Virginia at this time last year.  I'm keeping this race on the board until I've seen confirmation that Michael Bennet's footing is solid, but a soft mid-single-digit victory for Bennet does seem the most likely scenario right now.

Florida--This one is only barely on the board in the increasingly red-tinted Sunshine State.  The Democrats have a reasonably strong candidate in Congresswoman Val Demings, but I really don't like her chances against Republican incumbent Marco Rubio.  In fact, I wish Demings would have taken a pass on this race as she has too bright of a future to squander it by losing to Rubio by double digits next year, which strikes me as likely.

Georgia--I was humbled in January when the Democrats were able to replicate Joe Biden's November 2020 coalition in the Peach State and elect two Democratic Senators in the runoff.  That seemed unthinkable going into election night.  Unfortunately, one of those two recently elected Democrats--Raphael Warnock--has to face voters again this November.  Georgia is changing fast, as we witnessed with the trifecta of Democratic wins in the last year, but even a small reversion to the mean among upscale suburban voters would be lethal to Warnock.  Right now, the GOP frontrunner is former NFL running back Herschel Walker, who is certainly a gamble for the Republicans, but strikes me as having considerable crossover appeal if he proves himself to be good at politics.  Given the state's extremely narrow path for Democrats and the ugly political climate shaping up for them, I'm definitely giving Walker the early advantage to take out Warnock.  GOP+2

Nevada--The Democrats have been on quite a roll in the Silver State for the last few cycles and currently control both Senate seats, three of four House seats, the Governor's mansion, and both houses of the legislature.  They've also voted Democrat in the last four Presidential elections.  With that said, their advantage has been getting narrower and Biden's 2020 victory was much closer than expected.  With COVID lockdowns hitting the state's tourism industry hard coupled with an erosion of support from both Hispanics and white working-class union workers, I'm bracing for a very tough correction against Democrats next year in Nevada.  Freshman Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto seems very vulnerable, and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt seems poised to be a formidable challenger for the GOP with a legacy surname working to his advantage reminding older voters of better times.  Frankly, I'd be surprised if Cortez Masto was able to hang on with a midterm electorate.  GOP+3

New Hampshire--Freshman Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan caught a huge break last month when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu decided not to run against her in the Senate race.  Sununu was leading in the polls and, given the climate, seemed likely to be a heavy favorite to beat her.  Most of the potentially strongest Republican challengers have chosen not to run.  Maybe they know something I don't because Hassan--who won by only 1,000 votes in 2016--sure seems vulnerable in the competitive and independent Granite State, which voted Biden in 2020 even as they doubled-down on larger Republican majorities in their legislature.  With as horrendous as the political environment is, I'm still inclined to believe the motley crew of Republican challengers remaining in the field is still slightly more likely than not to produce a nominee that beats Hassan next year.  GOP+4

North Carolina--Republican Richard Burr is retiring after three terms, with no small level of scandal surrounding his departure.  The Tar Heel State has proven to be just out of Democrats' grasp cycle after cycle in federal races this past decade, so it's hard for me to believe that things will end differently this year when the electoral landscape increasingly tilts red.  Democrats seem likely to go with former Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley who definitely seems like a long shot next to any number of potential GOP challengers, ranging from Congressman Ted Budd to former Governor Pat McCrory.  This race is still on the map for now, but the GOP has a decided advantage in holding Burr's seat in the first inning of this ballgame.

Ohio--Two-term Republican Rob Portman is retiring, and whichever Republican succeeds him as the nominee will have a decided advantage in retaining the seat in the increasingly conservative Buckeye State, and will also bring a decidedly Trumpier flavor to the seat than does the more centrist Portman.  Con man author J.D. Vance raised his national profile writing a book critical of Donald Trump, but given Trump's enduring popularity among working-class Ohio voters, has done a complete about-face and now presents himself as Trump's strongest supporter.  Vance's main challenger for the GOP nomination is former GOP Senate nominee Josh Mandel, and the two are currently in an arms race to prove who is the most mindlessly populist.  Whoever of the two emerges in the primary is likely to be Ohio's junior Senator next January, but the Democrats seem likely to go with Youngstown Congressman Tim Ryan, who is the only kind of Democrat that has a chance in Ohio moving forward and, if everything completely goes off the rails for Republicans, could theoretically emerge victorious.  The more likely scenario though is a sad double-digit defeat for Ryan that prematurely ends a political career that seemed very promising just a few years ago.

Pennsylvania--Two-term GOP incumbent Pat Toomey is retiring and leaving behind the early frontrunner to be the marquee Senate race in the country for 2022.  Early Republican frontrunner Sean Parnell recently withdrew his candidacy and the new GOP frontrunner appears to be none other than TV doctor Mehmet Oz, running for Senate in the Keystone State despite never having lived there.  The Democrats have a number of strong candidates, with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman currently looking like their strongest option.  In a traditional electoral environment, Fetterman or the other Democratic candidates would have a pretty distinct advantage in this race, but demographics in Pennsylvania have been making it a tougher win for Democrats in recent years.  With 2022 shaping up to be a bad year for Democrats, it's hard to imagine the party being able to pick up a GOP-held seat here.  Not impossible to imagine, but hard.  At least for the time being, I'm giving Dr. Oz a narrow advantage here, but I maintain that this holds up as the marquee Senate race of 2022 with a close outcome either way.

Wisconsin--Two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson is a loathsome character who's benefited from strong GOP environments to win twice in the previous decade.  The Democrats have a number of challengers vying to compete with Johnson in 2022, with Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes and State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski going into the election year with the strongest prospects of the Democratic nomination.  But with the increasingly red hue of the Badger State, I'm very skeptical that the defensive electoral environment of 2022 will prove to be the one where Democrats can do what Russ Feingold failed to do twice and beat Johnson.  I'd be very surprised if we weren't stuck with this jerk another six years.

So there it is.  The Democrats are reasonably lucky heading into 2022 in that they're playing more offense than defense given that the GOP did so well in this Senate class in 2010 and 2016.  But I still think they're likely to lose control of the Senate rather decisively in 2022.  Even if they manage to pick up Pennsylvania and hold New Hampshire, which right now seem doable despite my official predictions otherwise, the GOP will still hold the Senate 52-48 next year, heading into a 2024 cycle where Democrats are very heavily overexposed.

It's hard to envision a scenario where the Republicans don't control the U.S. Senate for a generation given the trends of the political fault lines, with Democrats living on borrowed time with several of their currently held seats (West Virginia, Montana, Ohio) in states that are becoming unwinnable for Democrats.  They've stitched together a barebones 50-50 majority since January 2021 in what is likely their best-case scenario Senate environment for the foreseeable future.  There's a nonzero chance that they could sweep the battleground races of 2022 and maintain that majority, but that's doubtful, and their moment of reckoning as a minority party in the Senate is effectively inevitable by 2024.  They effectively cede any part in shaping the American judiciary when that happens, which is terrifying.

In January, I'll take an early look at the 2022 Governor's races and make some preseason predictions there.