Early Predictions For 2022 Governor's Races

With each passing week, the political waters look more turbulent for Democrats.  The majority of voters haven't experienced tangible inflation before, and right now it's a very real phenomenon that threatens to leave voters in a very sour mood, even voters who are generally friendly to Democratic Party messaging.  It's a tight fix because there isn't a whole lot anybody can do about it in the short-term, and the most likely solution (raising interest rates) will come with pain of its own.  

Meanwhile, rising crime rates show no signs of letting up, and the messaging from Democrats seems disconnected as they continue to insist white supremacists are the biggest risk to Americans, a phenomenon that does not match their lived experience when they're held at gunpoint by lawless teenagers hijacking their cars.  The mismatch between news headlines of January 6th Capitol rioters getting sentenced to years in prison while violent street thugs and mentally ill vagrants lining their city streets seem to get released quickly after their crimes and rapidly reoffend really make the Democrats seem out of touch. It likewise sours otherwise well-meaning voters on the left's relentless obsession about equity and diversity, as acceptance of more crime increasingly seems to be a part of that.

Meanwhile, we seem poised to get entangled in a military pissing match with Russia over Ukraine, which also seems likely to be tremendously unpopular.

These are just the tip of the iceberg for the incumbent party's problems as they head into the 2022 midterms, hanging on to political power by the skin of their teeth and facing an electorate who believes the country is going in the wrong direction.  Democrats are all but certain to pay a steep price at the federal level, but with today's tribal voting patterns being what they are, it's a safe bet that the party's problems will extend to the state level.  

The massive infusion of federal cash into state coffers during the pandemic is currently making Governors of both parties look like pretty good managers right now, so most of them have above-water approval ratings.  This is definitely the best thing Democrats have going for them in the multiple light-blue and purple states where they currently hold the Governor's offices, but the rising Republican tide is still likely to wipe out a number of Democratic state house holders who won easily in 2018 and seem like they would be favorites for re-election in a neutral political environment, insofar as there will ever be such a thing again.  The question is, which Democratic Governors might be able to hold on anyway, as it's likely that some will catch some breaks in the next nine months.  Let's break it down....

Of the 38 gubernatorial races open this year, here are the races where I think the Democratic Party is heavily favored to win....

California--Gavin Newsom

Hawaii--Open (David Ige)

New York--Kathy Hochul

Pretty short list!  This is not to say I don't think there will be other Democratic winners, as I will get to in my state-by-state profiles below, but these are the only three I'm putting myself out there in predicting as either safe Democrat or closely resembling safe Democrat.  Even in New York, accidental Governor Kathy Hochul is facing a serious Democratic primary challenge from Congressman Tom Suozzi and has a credible GOP challenger in Congressman Lee Zeldin.  It's hard to imagine a Republican winning in New York, but I could see a guy like Zeldin making it a single-digit race in the Empire State.

Moving onto the states I consider safe bets for the Republicans this year.....

Alabama--Kay Ivey

Alaska--Mike Dunleavy

Arkansas--Open (Asa Hutchinson)

Idaho--Open ?? (Brad Little)

Iowa--Kim Reynolds

Nebraska--Open (Pete Ricketts)

New Hampshire--Chris Sununu

Ohio--Mike DeWine

Oklahoma--Kevin Stitt

South Carolina--Henry McMaster

South Dakota--Kristi Noem

Tennessee--Bill Lee

Texas--Greg Abbott

Vermont--Phil Scott

Wyoming--Mark Gordon

A much longer list than the Democrats!  And in several cases, the Republican incumbent may indeed be vulnerable this year, but because of primary challenges in their own parties rather than Democrats.  In Alabama, for instance, I'd be surprised if Kay Ivey got the nomination again after shaming the unvaccinated last year.  Mike DeWine in Ohio and Greg Abbott in Texas may also be genuinely vulnerable to primary challengers from the right.  Democratic challengers Nan Whaley and Beto O'Rourke, respectively, look strong on paper in both states but I'd be shocked if either got within single digits of the Republican nominee in this political environment.  And while Vermont is the most Democratic state in the nation, they have a popular moderate Governor in Phil Scott who is really unlikely to be unseated.  The only race on this list that I could in any way see become competitive is South Carolina, where former Democratic Congressman Joe Cunningham would have a puncher's chance is a strong Democratic environment, but 2022 is very unlikely to be that.

 That leaves the majority of this year's gubernatorial races with at least some measure of suspense looking at them from 50 yards away.  Time to take a closer look.....

Arizona--It's an open seat this year, with two-term Republican Doug Ducey term-limited out.  The Democratic frontrunner is Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who got some screen time nationally in 2020 following the close Presidential race in the Grand Canyon State.  A trio of strong Republican challengers is vying for their party's nomination, including businessman Steve Gaynor, newswoman Kari Lake, and former Congressman and gubernatorial nominee Matt Salmon.  Hobbs very much has her work cut out for her this year as Democrats barely eked out their federal wins in Arizona in very good years for the party in 2018 and 2020.  I definitely give the early edge to the GOP for this one, but the race is very much still in play.

Colorado--Democratic incumbent Jared Polis seems like a good bet for re-election in the Rocky Mountain State and hold the Colorado statehouse for his party for the fifth consecutive term.  Nobody in the Republican field challenging him looks particularly impressive at this point.  On the other hand, no two states have realigned more closely than Colorado and Virginia in the last 20 years, both leaning red a generation ago but now leaning decidedly blue.  The demographics of the state match closely, and November's gubernatorial contest in Virginia resulted in a GOP upset with a candidate that didn't look particularly strong months ahead of election day.  So while I think Polis is still a heavy favorite, the result in Virginia keeps me from putting the Colorado contest in Polis's column at this stage.

Connecticut--Democrats are on a long winning streak in the decidedly blue Nutmeg State, but it's interesting that the last three gubernatorial contests have had photo finishes, with Democrats prevailing by less than 3 points in all of them.  Democratic incumbent Ned Lamont has decent approval ratings, but given that track record of close gubernatorial contests in Connecticut, and the fact that he's likely to face off against his 2018 Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski again, I'm still putting this one in the undecided column for now.  Lamont goes in with an early advantage though.

Florida--The Sunshine State gets more Republican every cycle, and given the generally favorable ratings that the state's conservative residents have given Republican Governor Ron DeSantis over his controversially libertarian COVID response, he seems the heavy favorite to be re-elected.  I only hesitate because the Democrats have a credible field of potential challengers including State Agriculture Secretary Nikki Fried, high-profile state legislator Annette Taddeo, and Congressman and former Governor Charlie Crist.  If a perfect storm arises, the race could be competitive, but right now I'm betting on DeSantis prevailing by double-digits.

Georgia--The Peach State's gubernatorial race is poised to be a rematch between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacy Abrams.  Kemp narrowly prevailed in the 2018 contest, but Georgia appears to have trended more Democratic since then due to diversifying demographics and Trump-era suburban realignment.  This does not seem likely to be a Democratic year in these purple states but I don't count Abrams out, particularly with her proven ability to get the African American vote out even in lower-turnout elections like last year's Senate runoffs.  Still, replicating that coalition on behalf of a struggling incumbent party will be a herculean task, particularly since I think a lot of white suburban moderates will more likely than not flip back to the GOP without Trump around.  My money is on Kemp, most likely winning by more than he did in his narrow 2018 victory.

Illinois--Electoral math is very challenging for Republicans in Illinois, meaning incumbent Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzger has an early advantage in his bid for re-election.  With that said, the GOP found a way to crack Illinois twice last decade, and it can be done again, especially with low Democratic turnout in Chicago and an united front of ever-brightening red in the downstate Illinois counties.  The wild card here will be the upscale Chicago suburbs, historically Republican but anti-Trump in recent cycles.  Without knowing who the Republican nominee is, it's hard to analyze the race too closely, but I think it's a fair bet that Pritzger won't repeat his 20-point blowout of four years ago.  I still think Pritzger is more likely than not to win, but I'd be surprised if he pulled it out by more than 5 points this cycle.

Kansas--Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly benefited from a third-party challenger and an untenable GOP nominee in 2018, overcoming a huge partisan disadvantage in crimson red Kansas to prevail by 4 points.  Don't expect it to happen again.  The financial wreckage left behind by the previous Republican Governor's tax policy, which also helped in Kelly's unlikely ascent to victory four years ago, has likely been memory-holed by most voters.  Attorney General Derek Schmidt seems poised to be Kelly's Republican challenger for 2022 and, given the rising GOP tide, seems like a pretty safe bet to unseat Laura Kelly barring some sort of shocking revelation or turn of events.  But since she's an incumbent in a state where Republican moderates have lately been realigning to the Democrats, Kelly at least deserves the benefit of the doubt that she can keep this race competitive.  (Republicans +1)

Maine--Democratic Governor Janet Mills won her first term pretty handily in 2018.  I really have no idea how popular she is or isn't, but diverging demographic trendlines in Maine have made the state more amenable to Republicans in the Trump era even though Democrats still have them outnumbered.  And Mills' most likely challenger seems poised to be the noxious former GOP Governor Paul Le Page, Trump's closest gubernatorial prototype of the last decade, who managed to score two unlikely wins in 2010 and 2014.  Without much in the way of polling, it's hard to know where the winds are blowing in this race, but given his track record of upsets in strong GOP years, I am inclined to give Le Page the early edge.  (Republicans +2)

Maryland--Popular moderate Republican Larry Hogan is being term-limited out after two terms as a GOP Governor in one of the nation's bluest states.  If he was able to run again, he'd win.  But in his absence it's a wide open race with multiple candidates in both the Democratic and Republican field, none of whom stands out as heavily favored in the respective party primaries.  Given that Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents outnumber Republicans by about 2-1 in the Old Line State, Team Blue has a huge numerical advantage.  But voters here have proven themselves willing and able to put a check on the overwhelmingly Democratic state legislature in the recent past and in a political environment like this, it's not out of the question that they'd do it again.  Still, advantage Democrats to pick up a seat here. (Democrats +1)

Massachusetts--Biden's three strongest states in 2020 (Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont) all have Republican Governors, odd as that anomaly sounds.  The Bay State's popular moderate Governor Charlie Baker is retiring, leaving the seat open.  Just as in Maryland, there's a wide field of contenders seeking to replace Baker, particularly on the Democratic side.  Given the arithmetic in Massachusetts, the Democrats are favored to take the statehouse back, but Bay State voters have proven themselves even more amenable to ticket-splitting in gubernatorial races than Marylanders.  Still, Baker's Lieutenant Governor opted to pass on the race, along with just about every other high-profile Republican in the state, leaving the top GOP prospect as Elizabeth Warren's former Senate challenger Geoff Diehl.  Anything can happen with such an unsettled race, but Democrats have a definite early edge to pick up this seat from the GOP.  (Democrats +2)

Michigan--In the very heavily Democratic year of 2018, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer scored an easy upper-single-digit victory in the Wolverine State two years after Trump's unlikely razor's edge victory there.  As Michigan's trendline continues to shift redder, I think Whitmer is much more vulnerable this year.  In fact, if 2018 and 2020 Senate nominee John James, who vastly exceeded expectations twice in a row against incumbent Democratic Senators, were to run again, I think he'd win.  But thus far, James has not indicated he's running for the race, and it's getting pretty late in the game. And to be honest, the extensive GOP field does not look impressive at this point, but that's not to say a novice couldn't surge in the heat of an election cycle where the party is on offense.  I suspect Democratic base turnout will be lagging in Michigan this year, and that's a big problem for Whitmer, but until the GOP gets a nominee who is able to prove his or mettle, I have to give a small advantage to Whitmer for holding the seat.  I feel pretty secure in predicting she won't win by 9 points this time though.

Minnesota--Democrats keep finding ways to retain their modest advantage in the Gopher State despite realignments within their coalition.  I suspect 2022 could be the year when that catches up to them, but I still consider Democratic incumbent Tim Walz a narrow favorite for re-election.  With that said, he is vulnerable, and if former Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek manages to get the GOP nomination, Walz will have a real fight on his hands.  But thus far, Stanek's not in the race and would probably struggle against more conservative challengers in a fight for the nomination if he did decide to run.  Walz has largely cultivated a profile as an affable moderate in his first term and stands a good chance at holding many of the upscale suburbanites now needed to win statewide in Minnesota.  But the wild card is two marijuana parties that, because of a quirk in Minnesota election law, both have major-party status and serve as protest vote vessels that largely absorb younger, Democratic-leaning voters.  Expect these two parties to score at least 5% of the vote between them, and it could easily be enough to cost Walz the election.  Right now though, I'm inclined to think Walz pulls it out, with slightly better odds of re-election than Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan.

Nevada--As I alluded to in the Senate races last month, Democrats are on a long winning streak in the Silver State, but every indication is that they're in for a correction of some magnitude in 2022.  The problematic polling for Democrats among Hispanic voters, the Trumpifying of working-class white union voters, and the beleaguered Nevada tourism economy hit hard by COVID all spells big trouble for incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak.  Beyond the fundamentals, Sisolak seems poised to have strong Republican opposition, with former Senator Dean Heller and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo at the top of the crowded GOP field.  Even without much in the way of early polling, I'd be pretty surprised if Sisolak found a way to hang on, and put him at a disadvantage against either Heller or Lombardo in this political environment.  (Republicans +3)

New Mexico--If Democrats have been on a long winning streak in Nevada, they've been on an even longer winning streak in New Mexico, with the state's majority-Hispanic electorate driving the rising Democratic tide.  But as already discussed, the 2020 Presidential results and recent polling have indicated a substantial shift away from Democrats among Hispanics in the last two years.  Does this put the Land of Enchantment's incumbent Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham at risk?  At least a little.  New Mexico has been an island of hard-line COVID restrictions in the southwest and there's been some definite signs of exhaustion in their electorate.  Furthermore, her most likely challenger is the Republican's 2020 Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti, who vastly exceeded expectations and got within 6 points of victory in that contest.  I have yet to see any tangible data suggesting Grisham is vulnerable, but anecdotally she sure seems to have some level of risk in a national GOP landslide.  I'll give her the benefit of the doubt early on, but this is a race worth watching.

Oregon--I think it might be 20 years since a Republican last won a statewide race in Oregon.  With that said, it's not California or even Washington in terms of Democratic impenetrability.  Several recent Democratic wins have been narrow ones, and a cycle like 2022 could be the one where the GOP rolls seven.  Current Democratic Governor Kate Brown is not running for re-election in the very polarized state, where left-wing Portland and most of the rest of the state are bitterly divided.  The Republican field is not particularly impressive on paper, while Democrats have a couple of stronger challengers on their bench (Speaker of the House Tina Kotek and State Treasurer Tobias Reed), as you might expect in a state where one party has dominated statewide elections for a generation.  New York Times columnist and carpetbagger Nicholas Kristof has been disqualified from the race on the Democratic side, and probably took away the GOP's best chance for an upset.  So while the Democrats have a structural advantage here like they always do, it's a race worth watching, particularly if the GOP's fortunes continue to increase nationally and local Republicans find the right message mix regarding the lawlessness of Portland.

Pennsylvania--The early bet on the marquee Senate race in the country is the open seat in the Keystone State, and with two-term incumbent Tom Wolf retiring as Governor, expect that race to be a slugfest as well.  As is the case in so many of these races, there's a large field of candidates, but the early frontrunner on the Democratic side is Attorney General Josh Shapiro while the early bet for the GOP is State Senate President Jake Corman.  Just based on the fundamentals of this cycle and Pennsylvania's trend line, I think it'll be extremely tough for the Democrats to hold this seat for a third consecutive term.  It can certainly be done if they catch some breaks, but just as in so many other "purple" states, I'd rather be the Republicans in the PA-Gov race this year.  (Republicans +4)

Rhode Island--Although very few have likely heard of him outside of the Ocean State, Democratic Governor Dan McKee, who succeeded Gina Raimondo after Biden nominated her for his Cabinet, is running for re-election in this dark blue state, but he has a long list of ambitious challengers in his own party vying for the nomination.  Whoever gets the Democratic nomination has the early advantage, but as is often the case in these very blue states, voters are often amenable to a moderate Republican as head of state to keep a check on their overwhelmingly Democratic Legislature.  At least on paper, the GOP's best option is Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who hasn't won in his previous runs for the office but has gotten reasonably close and could find that this is his year.  This is another one to put in the "Race to Watch" column.

Wisconsin--Democrats had a pretty good year in the Badger State in 2018 despite the state's gradual drift toward Republicans, but even in 2018, Democrat Tony Evers only barely eked out a win against controversial two-term Republican incumbent Scott Walker who was seeking a third term despite underwater approval ratings.  Suffice it to say that in the current political environment, I'm not loving Evers chances of a repeat victory.  The Republican field is wide open, but the early money suggests that former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch is the frontrunner.  I'd be impressed if Evers figured out a way to win, but it's a tall order given the trend line of the state and the toxic political environment for his party, particularly among the voting demographics that are so heavily represented in Wisconsin.  (Republicans +5)

So that's my early take.  I'm predicting five gubernatorial offices currently held by Democrats will flip to the Republicans while two will flip from Republican to Democrat, giving the GOP a net gain of three.  I feel like I'm being pretty conservative toward the GOP here as there are a number of races like Michigan and Minnesota where I'm giving Democratic incumbents a narrow benefit of the doubt at this phase of the cycle, all while assuming that a number of blue states with a track record of electing moderate Republican Governors will flip back to the Democrats this year.  It could very easily be a much bigger wipeout for Democrats, much like 2014 was in the gubernatorial races where virtually every competitive race went to the GOP.  

Endangered Democratic candidates who survive will likely do so by triangulating against some of the extremely unpopular policies currently embraced in left-leaning jurisdictions, particularly as it comes to enforcement of crime.  New York City Mayor Eric Adams successfully did this during his campaign last year, and if Democrats are able to prevail in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, distancing themselves from "soft on crime" policies could well be the difference.  On the other hand, there's not a damn thing any of them can do about inflation other than hope it ebbs come November.  If it doesn't, expect the GOP tide to do a fair amount better than simply netting three new Governor's mansions as I've predicted here.