Final 2022 Senate Race Predictions

It promises to be a highly competitive final stretch to determine which party will control the U.S. Senate for the next two years, but that's nothing new as Senate control has credibly been up for grabs every cycle since 2008.  I'm no longer putting an undue level of confidence on the accuracy of polling, but with that said, my teaser from last month describing the condition of the midterms seems obsolete.  Every indication is that the Democrats' boomlet following the Dobbs ruling has ebbed.  Nothing has substantively changed in the country in the last four weeks to precipitate Republican momentum, but gas prices have ticked up some and the inflation beast has not been tamed, with most analysts are now doubtful a recession can be avoided next year.  It doesn't seem as though it would be enough to alter the trajectory of an election cycle, but it does suggest the political climate is reverting to the fundamentals as it usually does, endangering the incumbent party. Furthermore, Republican campaign advertising has really kicked in and appears to have been more effective in breaking through than has Democratic messaging.  The Democrats have a long list of vulnerabilities on any number of cultural touchstones ranging from immigration to crime to transgender issues and the Republicans have probably drawn blood by connecting the dots between Democratic candidates at all levels of elected office and the most strident left-wing activists who donate to their campaigns.  Meanwhile, the Democrats continue to spend a disproportionate amount of time litigating a single issue....abortion rights.

The abortion issue was always poised to be a double-edged sword for Democrats.  The vast majority of voters are closer to the Democratic position than the GOP position on the issue, but it was always a matter of how salient the issue would be outside of Democratic base voters.  I had long predicted that the Dobbs ruling, foreseeable last year at this time, would boost Democratic enthusiasm and quite likely limit GOP gains this November.  But would the Dobbs ruling be capable of elevating Democrats, against all historical odds, to outright victory?  It remains an open question and I'm not ruling out the possibility given the long-documented "shy Roe vote" that always seems to show up at the polls when there's a direct referendum on reproductive rights.  But at this point, I'm increasingly skeptical.  Even with the prospect of criminalized abortion having now become a reality, I still don't think the issue's salience has enough reach among the electorate to change voting habits in any genuinely consequential way.  

And, in fact, I think Democrats may be at increased risk for a backlash given that abortion rights is clearly the centerpiece of their campaign, which may seem out of touch to what I suspect is a majority of voters for whom abortion rights is not their primary concern.  I have no scientific or even anecdotal evidence pointing in the direction of this hypothesis, but as I watch reams of campaign ads where Republicans land punch after punch against their Democratic challengers on a wide range of vulnerabilities--and Democrats respond almost entirely by tripling down on abortion rights--I start to wonder how much damage Republicans could potentially do with more than two additional weeks left of this dynamic in the campaign.

As usual, I'm making my formal predictions a few weeks early.  Here they are....

Alabama--Still pretty jarring to remember that only five years ago, a special election to fill an Alabama Senate race resulted in the election of Democrat Doug Jones....and all it took was the Republicans running a child molester for the Democrat to prevail by a 1-point margin!  Expect a much less controversial campaign in the Yellowhammer State in 2022 to fill the seat of retiring Republican Richard Shelby.  Republican Katie Britt prevailed in the GOP primary which is the only election that matters in most Alabama elections.  Don't expect Democratic Some Dude Will Boyd to benefit much from the Dobbs ruling as a number of Democrats believe will save them elsewhere.  Biden loathing runs deep in Alabama and Britt will crush Boyd as she would have against anybody with a D next to their name.  Prediction:  Britt by 24.

Alaska.--I'm not crazy about Alaska's adoption of instant runoff voting where November 8th will end up being a lot like general election night in Louisiana with an effective jungle primary determining the winner, only without a runoff.  But one person who I suspect very much does like the new format is Republican incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski who seems poised to get a fourth full term in the Senate because of it.  The moderate Murkowski has terrible approval ratings within her party and would almost certainly have been defeated in a GOP primary, but the likelihood is that Democratic crossover voters will save her this November.  It's entirely possible that Murkowski's challenge to the right from Republican Kelly Tshibaka could get more first-choice votes than Murkowski, but the nature of ranked-choice voting with nominal Democratic challenger Pat Chesbro in the mix is that the combination and first-choice and second-choice ballots cast for Murkowski will ultimately help her prevail.  There's a very narrow path to victory here for Republican Tshibaka but as a general rule it's a much safer bet for Murkowski.  Prediction:  Murkowski by 11.

Arizona--Democrats have caught quite a few breaks this year, or at least potential breaks, with the sheer number of third-rate GOP challengers.  One recipient of such a break is Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly, who won a special election to fill John McCain's seat in 2020 and is now up for a full term in 2022.  The polls two years ago showed a decisive Kelly victory was forthcoming, but he ended up winning by only 2 points.  This year, Kelly has the hypothetical good fortune of facing off against a Peter Thiel-groomed right-wing challenger named Blake Masters who seems in over his head but could still prevail given the headwinds facing the Democrats and the increasing willingness of voters to accept whatever right-wing nutjob the Republicans nominate.  I still think Kelly has the edge in this one, but just like last time, I suspect it will be closer than current polling indicates.  And if Republicans had nominated someone more mainstream, I suspect Kelly would have been unseated.  Prediction:  Kelly by 2.

Arkansas--Hard to believe Republican Congressman John Boozman is running for his third term this year, a dozen years after crushing Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln by double digits.  He'll have an even bigger victory this year against business owner Natalie James, one of multiple completely anonymous Democratic challengers running in bright red states this year, of which Arkansas definitely now is.  I guess it's progress that the Democrats even have a Senate candidate on the ballot this year.  They didn't against Tom Cotton two years ago.  Prediction:  Boozman by 40.

California--Of America's 100 Senators, it may well be true that the one with the lowest national name recognition is Democrat Alex Padilla from America's largest state, appointed in 2021 after Kamala Harris became Vice President.  Even after his inevitable election to a full term in November against lightweight GOP challenger Mark Meuser, it's a pretty safe bet that few outside of California (and probably millions who live in the Golden State for that matter!) will know who Padilla is.  Prediction:  Padilla by 28.

Colorado--The Republican Party and some in the media have made a concerted effort to prop up the profile of Joe O'Dea, a construction company owner and the GOP's Senate candidate in the Rocky Mountain State running against two-term Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet.  On paper, this race always had the potential to be competitive as Bennet's previous two victories have both been modest affairs and in a really strong Republican year, felling Bennet seemed like an outside possibility.  But Colorado has taken on an increasingly blue profile in recent cycles and its high concentration of upscale, college-educated moderates pretty much make it ground zero for the kind of place politically shaken by the Dobbs ruling.  In a perfect storm where everything went the GOP's way this fall, it's possible to imagine O'Dea being able to pull this one out, but it really strikes me as unlikely given the current political reality that Colorado will toss out Bennet.  Prediction:  Bennet by 7.

Connecticut--There are a lot of Senators running for their third term this cycle, and another one is Nutmeg State Democrat Richard Blumenthal, one of the Senate's most strident nanny-state ideologues who is nonetheless very popular with Connecticut voters.  Blumenthal would have crushed GOP challenger Leona Levy even in a Republican perfect storm, but expect the Dobbs ruling to generate a particularly sour response in Connecticut, helping Blumenthal pad his margins with inflated margins among upscale, college-educated voters.  Prediction:  Blumenthal by 31.

Florida--Some pre-election polling has indicated that the Senate race in the Sunshine State is reasonably close, but I'm not buying it.  In nearly every election cycle, Republicans outperform the polls in Florida and if Bill Nelson wasn't able to hang on to his seat against a professional criminal like Rick Scott in the strong Democratic year of 2018, then it really becomes impossible to wrap one's mind around the possibility of taking out Republican incumbent Marco Rubio.  Congresswoman and former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings is a strong recruit for Democrats, but she's running in a bad year in an increasingly hostile state for her party, which continues to see its population swell with tax-phobic, right-wing retirees.  Any path to victory for the Democrats in the Florida these days requires a strong showing from the Miami-area Cuban community.  Rubio's had a strong hold on them in the past and I see little evidence of a reversal this year.  In the end, I don't think this one will be close.  Prediction:  Rubio by 8.

Georgia--Arguably the marquee Senate race of this cycle, the complicated nature of Georgia's runoff arrangement ultimately portends my most complicated prediction.  Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock may have averted certain defeat by getting wildly unfit for office Herschel Walker as his challenger.  The fact that Walker's keeping it close indicates how big of trouble Warnock would be in if he'd faced a normal GOP opponent.  So can Herschel Walker actually get elected to the U.S. Senate?  Absolutely he can, but I don't think either he or Warnock will break 50% of the vote in November, triggering a runoff several weeks later.  This is where the calculation gets really complicated.  I currently have the Republicans gaining one seat in the races I expected to be settled after the November 8th vote count, meaning control of the Senate would not be on the line dependent on the outcome.  Under this scenario, I think more center-right voters might feel safe in voting for Warnock in the runoff, comforted by the idea that the Republicans would still control the Senate.  That calculation could just as easily go the other way though, with the prospect of demoralized Democratic base voters staying home for the runoff if Democrats wouldn't be able to maintain power either way.  In the event of a runoff where control of the US Senate is in the balance depending on the outcome in the Peach State, I think would-be Walker skeptics will hold their nose and vote for him just to wrestle Senate control away from Chuck Schumer.  Of all the races, this is the one I'm least confident about my prediction, but considering the gubernatorial contest is looking increasingly like a Brian Kemp blowout, it's hard to imagine there will be enough ticket-splitters in a place like Georgia to drag Warnock across the finish line.  I would suggest that in the next few weeks, voters should begin to accept the real possibility of a Senator Herschel Walker becoming a thing.  Prediction:  Walker by 1.  GOP +1

Hawaii--The closest Senate election in the Aloha State in my lifetime was in 2012, when the Democrat won by "only" 25 points.  It's a pretty safe bet that incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz, running for re-election this year, will trounce his Republican challenger, state lawmaker Bob McDermott, by substantially more than that.  Prediction:  Schatz by 40.

Idaho--As I prepared to write these predictions, I couldn't remember if long-time Idaho Republican Senator Michael Crapo had retired this year or not and I had to check it out.  Turns out he didn't retire and is running for re-election, which is all I needed to know to figure out that he would win in a landslide as he always does.  Some Dude Democratic challenger David Roth, who I'm quite confident is not connected in any way to Van Halen, got the Democratic nomination with less than 20,000 votes.  Expect him to be a wee bit outmatched by Crapo in the crimson red Gem State.  Prediction:  Crapo by 36.

Illinois--The Land of Lincoln is not favorable terrain for Republicans but I'm a bit surprised that one-term Democrat Tammy Duckworth doesn't seem to be in for even a little bit of a fight in her quest for a second term.  Republican challenger Kathy Salvi, whose primary political experience appears to be losing a Congressional race 16 years ago, is the GOP's emissary this year and seems unlikely to put up much of a fight.  With that said, Duckworth did surprisingly well downstate in 2016, besting Hillary Clinton by double digits in a significant number of counties.  But Illinois has consolidated into a Chicagoland-versus-everybody-else electoral map in recent years and no matter how pitiful of a campaign Salvi puts up, I expect a sea of red nearly everywhere south of Interstate 80 next month, including in many counties that Duckworth won six years ago.  Prediction:  Duckworth by 12.

Indiana--I saw a poll a few weeks ago indicating that first-term Indiana Republican Todd Young had only a mid-single-digit lead against his Democratic challenger, Hammond mayor Thomas McDermott, but I'm not buying it.  Demographics in the Hoosier State have been very kind to Republicans in the Trump era after the state's flirtation with Democrats 15 years ago, and as is the case in so many states with above-average numbers of working-class whites, Republicans have significantly outperformed the Indiana polls in recent cycles.  Without having any real idea of the kind of campaign McDermott is running, I expect that pattern to continue and him to be crushed by Young this year.  Prediction:  Young by 20.

Iowa--For the umptieth cycle in a row, some polls indicate a close race pending for the Iowa Senate race, with octogenarian Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley running for an eighth term and showing some indication of having overstayed his welcome.  Ultimately, his metamorphosis from a deal-making moderate to a MAGA ideologue probably constitutes the biggest loss of his bipartisan cred that's helped him win 15+ point landslides in every race going back to 1980, but it happens to be occurring at the same time that Iowa is realigning into a safe red state.  Democratic challenger Michael Franken came from out of nowhere to score an impressive primary win and has run a pretty solid campaign, but I'm not buying that Franken will be able to unseat Grassley in this difficult cycle or that he'll come particularly close.  It's been a decade since polls were even close to being right in the white working-class-heavy Hawkeye State and even though the Selzer poll showing the race close has more street cred than most, I'm betting the undecideds break overwhelmingly to Grassley and that he wins all of the counties that Donald Trump twice prevailed in.  Until I see any evidence otherwise, I'm operating on the assumption that Iowa has become the political equivalent of Nebraska and Missouri in the post-Trump era, dooming Franken from capitalizing on voters' Grassley burnout.  Prediction:  Grassley by 9.

Kansas--After the huge win in the abortion rights election over the summer, you'd think Democrats would consider the outside possibility of taking out two-term Republican Senator Jerry Moran this year, but despite a hotly contested gubernatorial race, there's no indication that anybody thinks Moran can be beaten.  His Democratic challenger, former Kansas City Mayor Mark Holland, seems well-positioned to continue the gains Democrats are making throughout the upscale suburbs of Kansas City, but expect him to fall far short of taking down Moran statewide.  Prediction:  Moran by 22.

Kentucky--Back in 2016, I was surprised that Republican Senator Rand Paul didn't have a more comprehensively dominating re-election victory than he got, particularly with Trump on the ballot and outperforming Paul by about 10 points.  This year, Paul is being challenged by Louisville legislator Charles Booker, who has pretty significant name identification due to his media blitz following the Breonna Taylor shooting, but it's not the kind of familiarity that I expect will help him much in a statewide race in the Bluegrass State.  While I don't think the population centers of Louisville or Lexington are winnable for Republicans anymore even in a landslide, I suspect Paul's victory will otherwise more closely resemble that sweeping win I expected him to get six years ago.  Prediction:  Paul by 26.

Louisiana--Freshman Republican John Kennedy is a real character who absolutely loves the camera.  There's no doubt Pelican State voters will reward him with re-election on November 8's jungle primary where neither his lone Republican challenger or any of his lightweight Democratic competitors should give him any trouble.  Prediction:  Kennedy by 27

Maryland--The expansion of the Beltway economy has turned the already blue Old Line State into one of the nation's most impenetrably blue enclaves.  Democratic freshman Chris Van Hollen will skate to re-election against perennial Republican challenger Chris Chaffee, but expect it to be a low turnout affair with so few competitive races.  Prediction:  Van Hollen by 30.

Missouri--Republican Senator Roy Blunt is calling it a career this cycle after winning a race he wasn't expected to win six years ago.  Since then, the Show Me State has consolidated into a state that's effectively impossible for a Democrat to win, at least in federal races.  Democrats were hopeful that disgraced GOP Governor Eric Greitens would win a primary he was long favored to prevail in, but Missouri is so far gone that even Greitens would have won by double digits if he'd been the nominee.  Instead, Republicans went with the safer option of Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and he'll be challenging beer heiress Trudy Valentine Busch, whose profile perfectly encapsulates the changing profile of the Democratic Party.  The polls depict a healthy Schmitt lead and aren't close, but expect the long-standing Missouri tradition of Republicans dramatically outperforming polls to continue this year and for Schmitt to win a bigger blowout than expected.  Prediction:  Schmitt by 18.

Nevada--After several cycles of Democratic dominance in the Silver State, there's plenty of indication that a correction is coming, gravely endangering Democratic freshman Catherine Cortez Masto in her bid for a second term.  In the "demographics are destiny" era before Trump, it was easy to take for granted that Nevada's diverse demographic mix would make it a nearly impenetrable Democratic fortress moving forward.  A good share of Nevada's Democratic coalition was made up by white union workers without a college degree, a group whose support for Democrats has completely collapsed.  And making matters worse, the Democrats are also bleeding Hispanic support.  It's unclear at this point just how bad the bleeding is with Hispanics, who make up about a third of Nevada's population, and I suspect it's hard for the poll modeling to effectively measure it.  With that in mind, Cortez Masto could prove to be unexpectedly strong if the Reid Machine of a decade ago is in any way transferable to the 2022 electorate.  Still, Republican challenger Adam Laxalt has shown small leads in most polls, and that's a very strong place to be against an incumbent in a state that unexpectedly trended to the right of the national average in 2020.  Prediction:  Laxalt by 3.  GOP +2

New Hampshire--The Democrats' luckiest break in the 2022 Senate races came when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu opted to run for another gubernatorial term rather than challenge freshman Democrat Maggie Hassan, who won by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2016.  Absent Sununu, a ragtag clown show ensued for the GOP nomination and the election-denying MAGA guy Don Bolduc prevailed with the nomination, nearly assuring Hassan of re-election.  This race could have gone very differently, and if New Hampshire was a shade more purple, I could still imagine Bolduc being competitive.  But I don't think he's the flavor of pudding that's gonna appeal to Granite State independents.  With that said, the electorate is sufficiently polarized and the environment for Democrats has gotten bad enough that I still don't think Hassan will have anything resembling a landslide.  Prediction:  Hassan by 6.

New York--Long-time Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer is heading for another landslide re-election victory in the Empire State against Republican challenger Joe Pinion.  That outcome is in doubt by nobody.  But don't expect the kind of comprehensive wins Schumer has gotten in the past.  Even in 2016, Schumer swept all but a handful of counties in the Empire State just as he did in his two previous runs, but expect the Trump realignment to hold in plenty of jurisdictions upstate, with several counties that went twice for Obama flipping red against Schumer this year.  Prediction:  Schumer by 24.

North Carolina--For the duration of the general election campaign, Democrat Cheri Beasley, the former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, was putting up an impressive fight against Republican Congressman Ted Budd in the polls to fill the open Senate seat occupied by retiring three-term Republican Richard Burr.  Long-time watchers of North Carolina elections were nonetheless skeptical as polls showing ties or narrow leads for Democrats in the Tar Heel State almost always seem to end with narrow Republican wins.  Recently, however, Budd has managed to pull ahead of Beasley even before the inevitable election night surprise.  It won't be a landslide win for Budd, but it will be decisive in this state whose demographic tug of war always seems to narrowly come out on the side of the GOP.  Prediction:  Budd by 6.

North Dakota--Two-term Republican incumbent John Hoeven was Governor of the Flickertail State before he moved to the Senate, and governed from the center-left during his tenure.  There was some speculation among observers that Hoeven would be a moderate in the Senate, but he's followed a pretty predictable, party-line posture in his 12 years.  Of course that hasn't hurt him in increasingly conservative North Dakota and won't be a problem for him in 2022 either as he'll easily lay waste to his token Democratic challenger, college professor Katrina Christiansen.  Hoeven may well get the largest victory of any Senate candidate this year.  Prediction:  Hoeven by 47.  

Ohio--It's hard to imagine Republicans nominating a sketchier candidate for statewide office than author/con man J.D. Vance, but thanks to a Trump endorsement, Vance managed to win the GOP primary and head into the general election against what passes for a strong Democratic challenger in today's red-trending Buckeye State.  Youngstown Congressman Tim Ryan represents the final credible flicker of light for the Democrats' origins as the working man's party, and thanks to a well-organized campaign, found himself leading Vance in the polls for months.  Most election analysts figured the fundamentals would ultimately prevail in this race, however, and every indication is that they are as the campaign approaches its final weeks.  Vance is edging ahead in most polls, and of course Ohio's demographics are such that polls have significantly undercounted Republican support in several recent cycles, giving me a reasonable suspicion that Vance's victory will be largely than expected in the end.  Ultimately, I suspect Ryan will outperform the generic Democrat in the Mahoning Valley which he's represented in Congress for the last 20 years, but can expect to match the recent partisan baseline just about everywhere else.  The result of such a coalition is a decisive win for the huckster Vance.  Prediction:  Vance by 6.

Oklahoma--When first-term Senator James Lankford declared on January 6th that he wasn't going to contest the outcome of the 2020 election any longer, I figured he'd get beaten by a conservative challenger in the dark red Sooner State, but Lankford held on in the primary and should have a very easy re-election victory in November.  The Democrats have an interesting (and attractive) young candidate in Madison Horn, but she'll be pasted in one of the nation's most Republican states.  Prediction:  Lankford by 36.

Oklahoma Special--Long-time Republican Senator Jim Inhofe retired early due to his wife's health issues earlier this year, leaving a special election to fill out his seat in November.  Eastern Oklahoma Republican Congressman Markwayne Mullin got the nod for the GOP side while former Oklahoma City Congresswoman Kendra Horn (no relation to Madison Horn in the other race) is the Democrats' emissary.  I suspect Kendra Horn to accomplish something not done in 18 years and win at least one county in a federal election in Oklahoma, but she'll still fall many points short of victory.  Prediction:  Mullin by 28.

Oregon--Democrat Ron Wyden is running for his fifth term and will win it handily as he always has, being an elder statesman of sorts and the closest thing to a bipartisan figure in the increasingly blue state.  But just like Schumer in New York, don't expect Wyden's victory this fall to be as geographically comprehensive as his wins in the past.  The state has become too polarized for any Democrat to win anything east of the Cascades, leaving Wyden's statewide map looking remarkably similar to Biden's two years ago.  Republican flake Jo Rae Perkins, the party's Senate emissary in 2020, will reprise her role in 2022 and get trounced again.  Prediction:  Wyden by 22.

Pennsylvania--With American politics as fiercely polarized as it is, it rarely works to fully disqualify one's opponent at the outset of a campaign, at least in a battleground race where plenty of money would be flying around to set opposing narratives.  It should come as little surprise then that Trump-endorsed TV doctor Mehmet Oz is suddenly highly competitive in the Senate race where he appeared to be poised for a double-digit defeat two months ago.  Despite his track record of quackery, Oz doesn't come across as a wingnut, and whatever biographical and residency problems he was originally struggling with are at this point paling in comparison to Democratic challenger John Fetterman's health issues.  Having suffered a stroke on the day of the Democratic primary, Fetterman is clearly not yet fully recovered and his incoherence puts into question his ability to govern.  Beyond that, Fetterman's opponents have been quite effective in litigating his muscularly progressive policy agenda with plenty of indication that he's bleeding support among more moderate Keystone State voters who were originally intrigued by his unique profile.  Not that long ago, this race seemed like the safest bet for Democrats to flip a Republican-held seat (retiring Pat Toomey currently holds the seat), but Fetterman's collapse has been so comprehensive that I'm now expecting Oz is more likely to pull ahead as the undecideds seem likely to break for the out party.  It's hard to overstate how terrible of a night it would be for Democrats if their rising star John Fetterman got defeated by Dr. Oz, but right now that's where my money is going.  Prediction:  Oz by 1.

South Carolina--Republican incumbent Tim Scott will cruise to re-election against Democratic challenger Krystle Matthews, particularly after Matthews got caught by Project Veritas making some racial comments that aren't likely to go over well among white voters in the Palmetto State.  It's not like Scott was in any trouble even without Matthews' controversy though, and frankly given Scott's temperament, demographic profile, and crossover appeal in prior elections, I'm surprised his name isn't front and center for a Presidential run.  Prediction:  Scott by 25.

South Dakota--From George McGovern to Larry Pressler to Tom Daschle to Tim Johnson, we have a half century of history confirming that South Dakotans simply don't elect their Senators to a fourth term!  But that quirk of history is poised to get broken this fall as Republican John Thune will skate into his fourth term against token Democratic challenger Brian Bengs.  It's rather astonishing how complete the Democratic collapse has been in both Dakotas considering that they each had two Democratic Senators a generation ago.  Prediction:  Thune by 39.

Utah--Six years ago, Evan McMullin ran for President as a mainstream conservative alternative to Donald Trump and got more than 20% of the vote in his native Utah.  McMullin's evolution continues in 2022 as he is running as an independent for the Utah Senate seat, although it seems likely he'd caucus with the Democrats if elected, particularly having won the Democratic endorsement against an actual Democrat.  On paper, McMullin represents the best chance in generations of wrestling a Senate seat out of Republican hands, but ultimately two-term GOP incumbent Mike Lee is highly likely to be re-elected in the Beehive State.  For my entire life, Utah has been the nation's most consistently Republican state but its traditions were shook a bit due to widespread Mormon aversion to Donald Trump.  Don't expect that aversion to get much traction downballot though, at least not enough to pose a real problem for Lee.  Prediction:  Lee by 26.

Vermont--After 48 years in office, Democrat Pat Leahy is finally calling it a career, leaving a rare open seat in the Green Mountain State.  In a classically Vermont move, Leahy's likely successor is long-time Democratic Congressman Peter Welch who is looking to be a freshman Senator at age 75.  Random Republican challenger Gerald Malloy, who won the GOP primary with a whopping 12,000 votes, will be crushed in the state the has become America's bluest.  Prediction:  Welch by 43.

Washington--Democrat Patty Murray is running for her sixth term and seems very likely to get it.  Back in 2010, Murray was vulnerable and only pulled out that year's contest by 2 points, but the Evergreen State has consolidated even more into the Democratic column since then.  Murray's GOP challenger, nurse Tiffany Smiley, certainly seems like a lightweight, although polling hasn't been quite as lopsided as one might expect, suggesting some exhaustion with Murray as well as some realignment in more working-class areas of the state that were quite recently very blue.  I'm still betting on a pretty decisive re-election for Murray, however.  Prediction:  Murray by 12.

Wisconsin--There are few people in American politics today more loathsome than two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson.  It may be hard to wrap one's mind around the fact that a state that voted for Joe Biden (along with disproportionate numbers of Democrats in other recent cycles as well) keeps sending Johnson back to Washington, but it speaks to the long-running schizophrenia of Badger State voters swinging from left to right with no clear pattern.  Johnson staged one of the most breathtaking comebacks of all-time in his 2016 race, having been trailing by double-digits in the polls until weeks before the election and then surging ahead for a decisive re-election victory against Russ Feingold.  So when polls this summer indicated Johnson was badly trailing yet again, most political analysts took it with a grain of salt.  The only difference in 2022 compared to 2016 thus far has been that Johnson's stampeding comeback appears to have happened a month earlier in the cycle as Johnson has already  pulled ahead of Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in recent polls.  I'm not sure exactly what line of attack Johnson has been leveling against Barnes but it seems to be brutally effective judging by the poll shifts.  Given how Republicans have dramatically outperformed Badger State polls in recent cycles, it's hard to envision a scenario where Johnson fails to pull off a third term at this point.  Prediction:  Johnson by 5.

It's important to note that, this year more than ever, I could envision myself being way off in these predictions.  It's entirely possible that the August bounce Democrats experienced when they outperformed expectations in a number of special elections could hold.  Maybe the political world really did change after the Dobbs ruling.  Furthermore, while the polling errors we saw in previous cycles all seemed to undercount Republicans, I can't dismiss the possibility that pollsters have overcorrected this year and are bestowing Republican voters more polling strength than they deserve.  At least historically, that has been the ebb and flow of polling over the years, with erroneous modeling never consistently occurring in a straight partisan line.  But I'm inclined to think there's more going on here in a direction that will likely continue to imperil Democrats as the death of the landline has created an existential challenge for the polling industry to reach likely voters.  The response rate to pollsters is now below 1%, meaning a poll of 500 respondents would require more than 50,000 calls.  Polling conducted this way means you're likely to hit the same diminished number of willing participants over and over.  Such was the case with me several cycles ago as I made a point of answering polls right up until the point where they began calling me nearly every single night.  And given that those who've continued to respond to pollsters has skewed college-educated and Democrat-leaning in recent years, it's unclear why that would change moving forward.  That's why, in my final prediction, I have Republicans picking up 1 or 2 seats (depending on the unpredictable Georgia runoff outcome) and re-taking control of the Senate next year after only two years of Democratic control.

As an aside, I have to go back to 1994--when I was a junior in high school--since I was less engaged in an election cycle than this one.  I said that before and, while my interest level increases some as election day draws nearer, the nature of polarization and "college boys versus the deplorables" partisan coalitions have left me cold.  I'll continue to make my predictions and report on the outcomes, but the days of me eating, sleeping, and breathing elections every even-numbered year are probably over.  That's kind of sad to admit, but not a fraction as sad as how badly our political discourse and issue landscape has deteriorated in the last decade.