The 2026 Congressional Midterms....Hypothetically

A year ago this weekend, when it was clear that Donald Trump was favored to be re-elected President, I predicted that "the future is autocracy".   The majority of people undoubtedly scoffed, beset by a failure of imagination and a childish naivete about what a sociopath like Trump was capable of given full, unequivocal impunity from the Supreme Court.  As I said at the time, most people would be comforted by the manifest destiny delusion that autocracy could never happen here because....because....well because we're the United States of America!

Twelve months later and here we are.   A near-majority of the country came to the conclusion in 2024 that one man--a career criminal--should be bequeathed more power than any other human in the history of our species.  And now this career criminal is telling the country that he intends to steal $230 million of their money to pay himself reparations for past Justice Department prosecutions. 

And even with all the stunning headlines of unprecedented plunder and extralegal corruption playing out, it's a good bet that at least 40% of the country is cheering on Trump every step of the way.  The same 40% would undoubtedly be just fine if we never had another election again, bestowing the power upon Trump and his hand maidens to choose the line of governing succession for the rest of civilization.  In a movement where "owning the libs" is the only thing that matters, multigenerational subjugation of political opponents to an omnipotent monarchy and forcing them to stare down the barrel of the sovereign's gun would be the ultimate sugar high!

It's kind of adorable that I'm joining the chorus of online election analysts speculating about the "midterms" as if any semblance of a normal election will play out 365 days from now.  That's why I'm putting a long line of asterisks on these predictions and pretending they will play out with some semblance of normal procedure and transfer of power.  

In the real world, Trump is strong-arming every red state to redraw district lines in a way that, with collaboration from the Supreme Court, would mean that even a D+10 generic ballot would not likely be enough to get Democrats a House majority.

In the real world, Trump is undoubtedly planning a scenario similar to what he successfully pulled with Argentina, promising to use tariff money to bail them out conditional upon how they vote in the midterms, denying the money to any state that dares to elect Democrats.

In the real world, Trump will escalate his efforts ahead of election day to deploy red state national guard members to literally hold people in blue states at gunpoint, with the intent to intimidate turnout.  He'll probably state these intentions out loud and it will be treated like business as usual.

In the real world, Mike Johnson and John Thune will take whatever steps they need to keep from seating the 218th Democratic House member or the 51st Democratic Senator.....or any Democratic numbers above and beyond that for that matter.  And there will be no consequences when they don't.

With all this in mind, it's comically quaint for me to proceed with my predictions, but it's a tradition and is fun in the abstract, so I'll take an early look at the state-by-state Senate race landscape for 2026.

Alabama--Republican Tommy Tuberville is quitting the Senate after one term to run for Governor.  He'll go from being the dumbest Senator in the country to the dumbest Governor in the country. There's a long list of Republicans waiting to succeed him and no Democrats above the fourth tier of recruitment options stepping up.  Will be a predictable 20+ point Republican win.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Alaska--Two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan seems like exactly the kind of charisma-free backbencher who could be felled in a perfect storm.  The Last Frontier has been trending incrementally toward Democrats and former Congresswoman Mary Peltola would make for a strong recruit and give the party a modest chance of victory.  So far, however, Peltola has been dragging her feet Hamlet-style and remains undecided which race to run for as she could go for Governor or try to retake her old House seat.  That doesn't give me hope that her heart is in it for a long shot Senate race against an incumbent, and I'm not seeing much indication the Dems have a Plan B if Peltola decides against it.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Arkansas--Two-term GOP incumbent Tom Cotton is running for reelection in a state that has quietly become one of the reddest states in the country a generation after being a Democratic stronghold.  He'll win it again.  The only question is if Arkansas can find any Democrat willing to run against him.  They didn't last time!  Prediction: GOP hold.

Colorado--I had honestly forgotten that Democrat John Hickenlooper was elected to the Senate in 2020.  If a guy that nobody knows announces his intention to run for a second term, does that mean he's really in the U.S. Senate?  Seriously though, the Rocky Mountain State has become such a Democratic cinch that Hickenlooper is more likely to be defeated in a primary than the general election and I'm betting against that too.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Delaware--As far as I know, Democrat Chris Coons is planning to run for a fourth term next year.  Pretty safe bet he wins if he runs.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Florida--Put this race on the outer periphery of the battleground just in case there's a perfect storm.  Republican Ashley Moody was appointed to fill Marco Rubio's seat when Rubio was selected to be Secretary of State, and Moody appears to be the favorite to run in next year's special election for the final two years of the term.  The best Democrats have been able to do so far is former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins.  The Democratic collapse in this former quintessential swing state has been astonishing, and even in an ostensibly Democratic climate with a quasi-incumbent with little name recognition, I'm still betting on a double-digit Republican win.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Georgia--Accidental Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff runs for a second term in what I expect could be the marquee Senate race of the cycle. Ossoff defeated a Republican incumbent in a January 2021 runoff election that was the textbook definition of a "perfect storm".  With two special elections on the ballot that included a race with a popular African American candidate (Rafael Warnock) boosting black turnout and positioning Ossoff to offer $1,400 checks in the mail as a reward for voting for him, Ossoff pulled off a one-point win.  Georgia's demographics keep shifting in the Democrats' direction and next year would seem like a cycle where Ossoff's party will be on offense, but I still think Ossoff will be the underdog.  I just have a hard time believing he'll be able to inspire black turnout sufficient enough to win without Warnock or another proven African American vote-getter sharing the ballot with him.  And, of course, Ossoff won't be able to offer the carrot of $1,400 checks in the mail if he wins as he did in 2021.  GOP Governor Brian Kemp declined to run but ultimately I think a generic Republican would have a small advantage over Ossoff.  The large GOP field won't settle until next year's primary, but I like the chances of whoever prevails better than I like Ossoff's chances.  Prediction:  GOP gain.  Running Total:  GOP +1.

Idaho--I guess three-term GOP incumbent Jim Risch is running for a fourth term.  He'll get it.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Illinois--Long-time Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin is calling it a career, leaving an open seat in a state where Trump significantly outperformed expectations in 2024.  There's a multi-candidate field of Democrats vying for the seat with Chicagoland Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi looking like an early frontrunner.  Nobody in the Republican field looks the least bit intimidating and it seems extraordinarily unlikely we should expect a GOP upset.  However, I would expect the trend of downstate Illinois "voting against Chicago" to accelerate, canceling out any hypothetical rejection of Trump in the heartland.  The possibility of a Senator with the surname "Krishnamoorthi" will likely reinforce the obsolescence of the old Obama and Durbin coalitions, conceivably by enough to hold the Democratic victory to single digits.  Prediction:  Dem hold.

Iowa--Democrats' impressive overperformance in a number of Hawkeye State special elections this year notwithstanding, I still think Republican Joni Ernst was on track for a mid-to-high single-digit victory in 2026 if she hadn't chosen to retire.  On paper, Ashley Hinson seems like a stronger GOP candidate than post-gaffe Ernst, having represented (and outperformed the GOP baseline) in a northeastern Iowa district that will likely be a statewide bellwether.  As for the Democrats poised to challenge her, Jonathan Turek seems to be generating the most favorable buzz but I expect its mostly Democratic wishcasting.  Zach Wahls would likely be a tough sell....a candidate of, by, and for Iowa City.  This remains a race to watch but my early bet is a decisive win for Hinson.  Prediction:  GOP hold.

Kansas--With the possible exception of Dan Sullivan in Alaska, first-term Republican Roger Marshall comes closest to representing the personification of the bland arrogance and entitlement of the incumbent party without having any kind of personal brand to shield him from a wave.  That's why I hope Democratic Congresswoman Sharice Davids decides to swing for the fences and take Marshall on.  She'd be a long shot even in a perfect storm, but a candidate of her skill level should rise to the challenge of the dire times we live in.  Particularly with Trump's self-imposed woes on the ag economy, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly's winning coalition is out there for the taking if Davids runs and figures out how to tap into it.  It's not likely available to any of the current third-rate and fourth-rate Democratic contenders for the seat.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Kentucky--I have to admire Democrat Amy McGrath for her pluck.  Even after getting bulldozed by long-time Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell six years ago, she's still running again for his open seat.  She seems like the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and will continue to be a substantial underdog against a crowded Republican field that includes Congressman Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron.  Something bonkers would have to happen for this race to become competitive.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Louisiana--When two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy voted to impeach Trump in 2021, I knew he'd struggle to win re-election whether Trump did or didn't mount a political comeback.  I stand by that position.  Cassidy, normally as close to a sane voice as you'll find in the contemporary GOP, is out there nominating Trump for a Nobel Peace prize to atone for his past sins, but Trump won't forgive and forget and he'll remind his voters not to either.  The seat will stay in Republican hands no matter which MAGA troglodyte Pelican State voters choose over Cassidy.  Any sliver of hope for a Democratic upset was likely extinguished when former Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards declined to run.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Maine--A perfectly on-brand comedy of errors is playing out presently in the state where Democrats are generically best-positioned to pick up a seat.  Five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins has a well-earned reputation as a survivor, but Maine should nonetheless be a cinch to flip if the GOP brand is as poisonous as Democrats like to think it is. With that said, here's the state of the Democratic opposition a year before the election:  a charismatic and progressive oyster farmer (!) and former Marine named Graham Platner got into the race and got the base worked up, only for oppo researchers to discover he had once dismissed rape in the military, used homophobic slurs, criticized both police and the intelligence of rural Americans....and that he has a Nazi tattoo on his chest!  Meanwhile, after months of dithering, Maine's Democratic Governor Janet Mills decided she was gonna get into the race and embark on a Senate career....at age 78!  A nightmare scenario is now unfolding with Maine voters continuing to express their early preference for Platner while the Democratic establishment is putting their thumb on the scale for Mills.  It's a huge mess, but at least for now, I still suspect Collins is more likely to lose than win.  This would be Mainers' first opportunity to judge Collins entirely within the context of a protest vote against an incumbent President who lost the state by 7 points last year.  I'll put it this way....if Susan Collins is re-elected to a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, it means that November 3, 2026, was an absolutely disastrous failure of a night for the Democratic Party.  Prediction:  Dem gain.  (Running total Dems +0)

Massachusetts--Democratic incumbent Ed Markey continues to not get the memo that the Democratic base is done indulging octogenarian egos.  After nearly a half century in the House and two terms in the Senate, Markey is running again.  He's facing primary challengers from his right (Seth Moulton) and potentially from his left (Ayanna Pressley), but honestly my money is on Markey pulling it out in a multi-candidate field.  From there, it's an almost certain Democratic victory in the Bay State, which is true even if one of Markey's primary challengers prevails.  I'm hoping it's not Pressley as she would be a bad look for Democrats nationally.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Michigan--The Wolverine State has had two close Senate races in a row and I suspect 2026 will be another.  Two-term Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is retiring and there's a multi-candidate Democratic field attempting a promotion with no early frontrunner.  State Senator Mallory McMorrow is the darling of the left.  Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed would rally Dearborn's Palestinian community and terrify much of the rest of the state.  And suburban Detroit Congresswoman Haley Stevens, a long-time Israel ally, would likely be the most competitive in most necessary places but would be obliterated among Dearborn-area Palestinians.  None seems well-positioned to put together the increasingly fragile winning coalition Democrats need in Michigan.  The Republicans seem inexplicably poised to renominate former Congressman Mike Rogers who was a weary choice two years ago and seems even less inspiring now having been unable to ride Trump's winning coattails.  I'm betting that the environment and candidate selection is just bad enough to deny Republicans a victory, but it'll be close and it's very much a race worth watching.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Minnesota--Two months ago, Minnesota Republicans promised that their slow launch for candidate selection would blow wide open as soon as Democratic Governor Tim Walz announced his intentions.  That hasn't happened....and it's downright bizarre.  With Democratic incumbent Senator Tina Smith having announced her retirement, Republicans absolutely have an opening, particularly if the Democrats nominate Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan over Congresswoman Angie Craig.  But it ain't gonna happen if the Republicans nominate Royce White again.  Nobody from the Republican field even rises to the third tier of candidates and would struggle even to beat Flanagan let alone Craig in a blue state in a defensive cycle.  Unless there's a surprise announcement from a better GOP recruit in the very near future, you can probably stick a fork in Republicans prospects for victory in the Gopher State.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Mississippi--Democrats have drawn some blood on Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in their two previous races against her, but still fell several points short of victory.  I'd be surprised if it's as competitive this time and expect that Hyde-Smith not only wins, but wins more comfortably that she did in 2018 or 2020.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Montana--Not so long ago, the Treasure State would have been on the table for a competitive Senate race in a defensive cycle for the governing party, but there's no indication that two-term Republican incumbent Steve Daines has anything to worry about.  His lone Democratic challenger seems less than intimidating and Jon Tester has no interest in trying to mount a comeback.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Nebraska--I'll admit to being surprised at how well left-coded independent candidate Dan Osborn did last year.  The de facto Democratic challenger to a two-term Republican incumbent outperformed Kamala Harris by 13 points.  It was a stark reminder of how big of a deal both candidate packaging and separation from the national brand is, with Osborn getting 66,000 more votes than the Democratic Presidential nominee by running as a blue-collar populist...in Nebraska!  Osborn is running again this year and I'm bummed that he's being wasted in Nebraska, where I still think he's a serious long shot.  In neighboring Iowa or even Kansas, I think he could pull it off.  Nebraska is a really heavy lift though, and incumbent Senator (and former Governor) Pete Ricketts is probably at least a little stronger of a challenger than Deb Fischer was last year.  It's certainly a race to watch though and I don't want to underestimate Osborn after his performance last year.  Prediction: GOP hold.

New Hampshire--It's quite telling that the strongest GOP recruit for a Democratic-held Senate seat this year is John Sununu, a former Senator who was defeated 17 years ago.  Maybe the Republicans can dust off Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Gordon Smith in Oregon for another bid too!  Seriously though, the Sununu name probably won't hurt in the Granite State and since retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving behind an open seat, it represents one of the Republicans' best prospects for a pickup.  I think Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas is favored against either Sununu or Massachusetts carpetbagger Scott Brown if he gets the nomination instead, but I also don't want to underestimate Republicans' durability in New Hampshire.  I don't know the culture that well in New Hampshire and always assume the MAGA message is not their brand of Republicanism, but then I remember that Pat Buchanan won the 1996 Republican primary in New Hampshire.  So I don't think it's gonna be a GOP year in New Hampshire, but I've thought that every cycle going back to the Obama years and am never fully proven right.  Prediction: Dem hold.

New Jersey--In a perfect storm, I think grandstanding blowhard Cory Booker might be vulnerable, especially with a good chunk of the Garden State's Democratic coalition having realigned to MAGA in the last few years.  Even in a cycle where the Democrats are on offense, I can imagine Booker being held to a single-digit win next year, but it's very hard to see him losing.  Prediction: Dem hold.

New Mexico--Freshman Democrat Ben Lujan prevailed by an underwhelming 6 points back in 2020, underperforming Joe Biden significantly.  If Harris had won last year and Republicans were on offense, I think Lujan could be vulnerable this go-round, but it seems doubtful they'll go with Trump's party in the midterm, and at least thus far no credible Republican has stepped up to challenge Lujan.  Prediction: Dem hold.

North Carolina--I've been rightly skeptical about the oft-cited assurances that the Tar Heel State is about to flip blue as Republicans have outperformed the polls and continued their winning streak ever since Obama's unlikely 2008 win.  Part of me still has my doubts that the retiring Thom Tillis's seat is gonna actually flip blue this cycle or that Democrat Roy Cooper is the guy to do it, but as of now, I'm narrowly tipping this one in the Democrats' favor.  Former RNC chair Michael Whatley just doesn't seem like what the electorate will be looking for in 2026.  Democrats are very bullish on Cooper but they were just as bullish on Kay Hagan and Cal Cunningham until they failed to get past the finish line.  If Cooper does pull this out, I think it'll be by 1 point or less.  Prediction:  Dem gain (Running Total: Dem +1)

Ohio--I'm a bit surprised that after Sherrod Brown's embarrassing defeat to a Mercedes dealership owner last year, they were able to persuade him to run again, especially for a special election where he'll only hold the seat for two years if he manages to win.  It makes me admire Brown even more that he's going for it.  With the Mahoning Valley and most of Ohio's small industrial cities having realigned to MAGA, I just don't see a path to victory for Brown or any other Buckeye State Democrat even in a bullish national environment.  I hope I'm proven wrong but I think appointed incumbent Jon Husted will be elected to finish out his term.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Oklahoma--First-term Republican incumbent Markwayne Mullin will be re-elected by more than 20 points and probably more than 30 points.  He might even get a free pass with no Democratic challenger.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Oregon--Democrat Jeff Merkley will be seeking a fourth term next year.  He'll get it.  Prediction: Dem hold.

Rhode Island--While I've always thought the Ocean State's demographics suggest increased MAGA competitiveness, it hasn't happened to any serious degree yet and 2026 is not likely to be the year that it starts.  In other words, I expect five-term Democratic incumbent Jack Reed to get a sixth term.  Prediction: Dem hold.

South Carolina--Democrats got themselves excited about the possibility of unseating grotesque Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham six years ago when polls suggested vulnerability.  It turns out the polls were wrong and Graham went on to win by 10 points.  As loathsome as he is, I'm taking the over this year on Graham's reelection performance margin.  Prediction: GOP hold.

South Dakota--Considering how bipartisan the Mount Rushmore State was 20 years ago, it's striking how Democrats are no longer even remotely competitive there in any capacity in the 2020s.  Two-term Republican incumbent Mike Rounds seems like the kind of guy who would have been vulnerable in a perfect storm, especially in the middle of a self-induced GOP farm crisis, but it's unlikely he'll have more than a "some dude" challenger next year.  I wonder if former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin still lives in South Dakota.  Kind of surprised she disappeared without a trace 15 years ago.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Tennessee--Freshman Republican Bill Hagerty is as soulless of a MAGA water carrier as exists anywhere in the country but that won't hurt him in the least in today's incarnation of the Volunteer State, as uncompetitive of a place as there is anywhere in the country.  He'll be safely reelected and will probably have no more than a fourth-rate Democratic challenger if any at all.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Texas--It's a very unsettled field for both Democrats and Republicans in the Lone Star State.  In an ordinary year, four-term Republican incumbent Jon Cornyn would be poised to cruise to another term, but he faces primary challenges to the right in his own party that seem legitimately threatening.  Impeached right-wing Attorney General Ken Paxton seems likely to be Cornyn's most serious foe, but it's entirely possible that divided opposition could keep the nomination in Cornyn's hands.  As for the Democrats, both 2024 nominee Colin Allred and rising star lawmaker James Talarico are running with relatively high fanfare, both hoping that the controversial Paxton wrestles the GOP nomination.  But after the Hispanic vote shifted hard to the right last year, I suspect Democrats' efforts to corral Texas were set back at least another a decade.  Even if Paxton is the Republican nominee, I suspect he'll win by mid-single digits.  Prediction: GOP hold.

Virginia--Last year's surprisingly modest Harris victory in the Old Dominion was a reality check that Virginia is not yet out of reach for the GOP.  With that said, three-term Democratic incumbent Mark Warner has a strong brand and wouldn't be felled easily even in a perfect storm.  It's a pretty safe bet he'll have the wind at his back this year with the regional economy in tatters after Trump's federal employee job cuts.  Prediction: Dem hold.

West Virginia--Two-term Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito should be as safe as they come in a general election.  The only way I could see her not getting a third term is if she lost a Republican primary to an even more shameless MAGA apologist.  Prediction: GOP hold. 

Wyoming--After a few moments struggling to remember who Wyoming's junior Senator was, I recalled it was freshman Republican Cynthia Lummis.  Bet on her safely winning a second term and bet against a hypothetical Liz Cheney comeback.  Prediction: GOP hold.

 

I'm often more bearish about predictions than most on the Democratic side, but interestingly, I don't really think there's that much distance between me and the average Democratic-leaning prognosticator this time around.  It's possible they'll be more bullish that I am on Sherrod Brown's chances in Ohio or Jon Ossoff's chances in Georgia but I don't think too many people would consider me crazy for thinking they're slight underdogs.  And I'm probably more optimistic about taking out Susan Collins than most Democrats, especially with the current Graham Platner-Janet Mills disaster unfolding.  Meanwhile, even typically sunny Democrats would likely concede that there's plenty of opportunity for things to go wrong in Michigan, New Hampshire, or North Carolina.  

My prediction of Democrats netting a single Senate seat isn't quite a best-case scenario, but plenty of things will have to go right even for this outcome.  The Democrats would still be in the minority 52-48, and my money is on John Fetterman switching parties either before or after the midterms, digging the Democratic hole deeper.

Is it still possible that Democrats could win the Senate next year?  They'd have to win the long shot race in Iowa and some combination of even longer shots in Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and Florida.  I'd put their chances at less than 2%.

But 2% quickly drops to 0% when acknowledging that Trump will deploy unprecedented levels of dirty tricks in every competitive jurisdiction to ensure his preferred outcome.  If Sherrod Brown is polling favorably, Trump will fill streets of Cleveland and Columbus with his red-state national guard crime syndicate to fire tear gas and rubber bullets at those entering polling stations.  If Derrick Van Orden narrowly leads Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin's Third District but the remaining vote is from a Democratic-leaning city, Trump will order the vote to be stopped and dare Democrats to challenge it in the courts filled with his appointees.  And if that doesn't work and Rebecca Cooke still manages to get a victory certified, Mike Johnson will refuse to seat her.

The era of fair elections is over. The era of peaceful transfers of power is over.  Americans voted for autocracy last November and I hope they like it because they're gonna be stuck with it for the rest of all of our lives.