2026 Governor Race Predictions

On balance, I find it a tick easier to project winners for this year's batch of 36 gubernatorial races than it was the Senate races last week.  There are a half dozen Senate races right now that I would argue are coin flips, but only a couple of Governor races with no clear leader.  Of course, that's not to say that aren't a few more states that could potentially swing blue if the Democratic wave crests as high as some predict, or for that matter some races that seem likely to go Democrat today that might not be considerably closer or even light red if a different electorate shows up than what polling models currently indicate.  Let's break it down:

 

Alabama--One of the unlikeliest rematches in recent memory comes in this year's Alabama statehouse election, pitting former Democratic Senator Doug Jones versus current Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville.  Tuberville stomped Jones in the 2020 Senate race and will do so again this year, but in a midterm without Presidential-level turnout and for a non-federal office, I can see Jones scoring above the Democratic baseline in the Yellowhammer State, particularly against an imbecile like Tuberville.  It won't be anywhere near enough to win though.  Prediction:  Tuberville by 14.

Alaska--Once again, the "top-four" jungle primary in the Last Frontier State foreshadows chaos in November, and that chaos currently seems well-positioned to help Democrats.  This open seat vacated by two-term Republican Mike Dunleavy has three Republicans on the general election ballot compared to only one Democrat.  Public polling has indicated that this lopsided candidate roster, along with a generally favorable electoral environment, is indeed helping the Democratic nominee, former legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.  While it's hard to know how to game this, it's hard to see how Kreiss Tomkins' advantage can be upended by the divided Republicans.  I'm not a fan of IRV and I suspect a lot of Alaska Republicans will cross the aisle to join me on this position in a couple of weeks.  Since I still don't really understand how this process is inclined to play out with Kriess Tomkins as the only Democrat on the ballot, I'm fully prepared to be surprised by the way this one breaks, but I'm picking Kriess Tomkins as the most likely to prevail in the final IRV count.  Prediction:  Bronson by 3.  Running Total:  Dems +1

Arizona--A year ago at this time, it seemed that if there was one incumbent Democratic Governor likely to go down in 2026, it would be first-term Democrat Katie Hobbs, who eked out a victory of less than 1 point against Kari Lake in 2022 and has had lukewarm approval ratings since.   The qualifier to Hobbs' expected vulnerability, however, was if Republicans were stupid enough to nominate Congressional Freedom Caucus radical Andy Biggs as their gubernatorial standard-bearer.  Well....Republicans nominated Biggs, and did so by a massive margin.  In a different political environment, Biggs could have won this race, but it's not gonna happen in this environment.  Prediction:  Hobbs by 6.

Arkansas--Sometimes I forget that Mike Huckabee's daughter is the Governor of the Natural State.  It's a pretty safe bet I'll get four more years to forget about her though as she's up for re-election in what's become one of the country's most Republican states.  While I've speculated that Hallie Shoffner could be an unusually good recruit for Democrats in the Arkansas Senate race, I'm not expecting much in the way of coattails for state senator Fredrick Love, the token Democratic gubernatorial nominee.  The climate might shave a few points off of Huckabee's lofty 2022 margin but she'll still win in a blowout.  Prediction:  Huckabee Sanders by 25.

California--Two-term Democrat Gavin Newsom rides off into the sunset, posturing for a Presidential nomination that I can't see him getting for reasons including but not limited to his being the two-term Governor of California!  The ungovernable Golden State will likely be passed off to former Congressman and soulless technocrat Xavier Becerra, who prevailed in a crowded Democratic primary field.  Republicans found their way into the top-two ballot position with Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, but even with as poorly governed as California has been, I can't imagine a scenario where they would throw in with a Fox News Republican.  Still, the backlash is growing and in the right environment I can imagine a perfect storm for the California GOP.  California is already well past its late 2010s "peak Dem" era and I can envision slumping margins for Becerra compared to Newsom even in the current environment.  Prediction:  Becerra by 16.

Colorado--While California has unquestionably crested in terms of its Democratic advantage, there's no indication that the Democratic party has topped out yet in the Rocky Mountain State, where the blue tide just keeps rising every cycle.  Democrats have controlled the Colorado statehouse for 20 years now and that streak seems nearly certain to continue in the aftermath of two-term incumbent Jared Polis bowing out.  The Democrats nominated Attorney General Phil Weiser while Republicans narrowly nominated ministry leader Victor Marx, a Charlie Kirk lieutenant whose claims to fame appear to be orchestrating multiple exorcisms and slaying the demons of the possessed, being forced by his father to murder another man at age seven, and directing an airstrike that killed 70 ISIS fighters.  A generation ago, Weiser would be poised to win 70+% of the vote against a challenger like Marx but those days are over in the current hyperpartisan era.  Four years ago, Polis won by nearly 20 points.  I expect Weiser to outpace Polis against a nutjob like Marx but it won't be overwhelming.  Prediction:  Weiser by 26.

Connecticut--There's a world where two-term Democratic Governor Ned Lamont might have been vulnerable this year or where he wouldn't have even decided to run for a third term, but that world was not one where Donald Trump was re-elected President in 2024 and governed the way he has.  Lamont had a strong win in 2022 and will probably outperform that showing four years later against his challenger, Republican state senator Ryan Fazio.  Prediction:  Lamont by 14.

Florida--To a limited degree, I think the political environment might even be enough to where Republicans feel it in the realigned Sunshine State.  Rebranding former Republicans from the Tampa-St. Petersburg area as Democrats and then nominating them to run in gubernatorial races hasn't exactly been a winning strategy in the last few election cycles and I don't expect it to be this year either, but I suspect a modest number of independents will find former Congressman David Jolly harmless enough to send a meaningless message to Trump by voting for him.  It wouldn't surprise me if there's some racial resistance to Congressman Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee, to cost him some support on the edges as well, but that might be offset by stronger-than-usual black support.  But I don't buy that this race is competitive as some public polling shows.  Donalds' win will probably be a little closer to the kinds of wins Republicans scored in Florida 15 years ago than what they've enjoyed in recent cycles, but still closer to the latter than the former.  Prediction:  Donalds by 8.

Georgia--Two-term Republican incumbent Brian Kemp knows when to call it a career.  Every indication is that the Peach State is about to ripen into a bluer shade of purple due to fast-changing demographics, with polling showing Democrats poised to win decisively in the Senate race.  If Ossoff's Senate win is anywhere near as large as polling indicates, it's hard to imagine that this year's Democratic gubernatorial nominee, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, won't get dragged across the finish line as well.  To be clear, Bottoms is nowhere as strong of a nominee as ticketmate Ossoff, while Bottoms' Republican challenger, health care CEO Rick Jackson, is a much stronger GOP candidate than is Mike Collins, the red team's emissary in the Senate race.  And there's also a chance that Jackson's business background will give him some gravitas among traditional managerial class Republicans who are otherwise leaning Democrat this year, potentially positioning Jackson to run further ahead of Collins than I'm anticipating.  But the math here seems challenging.  Either the polls are greatly overstating Ossoff's Senate race advantage (even though polling usually tends to be pretty good in Georgia) or Bottoms is sitting pretty with an arithmetic advantage with the electorate expected to show up this year.  Prediction:  Lance Bottoms by 2.  Running Total:  Dems +2

Hawaii--Unless there's a big surprise out there completely below my radar and everybody else's, Democratic incumbent Josh Green should have no problem securing a second term against his Republican challenger, businessman Gary Cordery.  I know absolutely nothing about Cordery or if he has any kind of local following or stealth momentum, but assuming past is prologue he'll be another in the long line of token Republican challengers that Aloha State Democrats have bulldozed over every even-numbered November.  Prediction:  Green by 30.

Idaho--At least once a decade, there will be chatter of a Gem State gubernatorial race looking competitive but it never materializes into a genuine battleground and Republicans end up persevering comfortably. This year, I'm not even hearing whispers about two-term Republican Brad Little having any degree of theoretical vulnerability that could deny him a third term.  Just like four years ago, Little's opposition is split with Democratic attorney Terri Pickens and former Idaho Supreme Court justice John Stegner running as an independent.  I don't know anything about either of them but can imagine Stegner potentially being a more serious challenger than Pickens.  Either way, Little should handily prevail.  Prediction:  Little by 25.

Illinois--If Kamala Harris had won the Presidency in 2024, I suspect two-term Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker would either have decided not to run for a third term or would have had a battle on his hands to be re-elected.  But since Harris didn't win in 2024, Pritzker is going for a third term in hopes of keeping his profile high enough to compete in a tone-deaf 2028 presidential run.  Pritzker's soft 2022 victory (by Illinois standards) previewed Harris's limp Presidential run two years later, which tells me that even in a defensive year, Republicans had the potential to make a race of this had they gotten a better nominee than former state senator Darren Bailey, their 2022 nominee.  Recent trendlines suggest we're looking at Pritzker consolidating support in Chicagoland while falling further behind downstate, but still hanging on statewide to prevail by double-digits.  Prediction:  Pritzker by 14.

Iowa--I'm not sure whether the Hawkeye State's Democratic Auditor Rob Sand is a really good politician or just has really good luck.  He first ran statewide in 2018, the closest thing the Democrats have had to a good year in Iowa in more than a decade, and narrowly beat a weak Republican incumbent.  Four years later, he eked out a microscopic win for a second term amidst a Republican wave, the only statewide Democrat to do so in a bloodbath for his party.  And now Sand has chosen 2026 to go for a promotion to Governor, and every indication is that his timing is once again pitch perfect.  Trump backlash seems to be running particularly hot in Iowa this year and, after 16 years of uninterrupted Republican governance, there seems to be an unusual consensus that it's time for a change.  Sand's trajectory has been helped by Republicans nominating a problematic challenger in conservative activist Zach Lahn, whose weaknesses have been quite effectively defined by Sand's campaign.  The potential always exists for an epic polling fail in Iowa, as we've seen no shortage of in recent cycles, but right now I'm convinced that Sand not only wins, but wins walking away.  Prediction:  Sand by 7    Running Total:  Dems +3

Kansas--If there's a single statehouse that seems poised to flip from blue to red this year, it's the Sunflower State, but it's telling that even there it's no sure thing.  Two-term Democrat Laura Kelly is term-limited and heading out of Dodge (pun intended), leaving behind an open seat in a historically bright red state.  This race should be a layup for Republican Ty Masterson, the president of the state Senate, but polling suggests that Democratic state senator Cindy Holscher is within striking distance.  Ultimately, I think the Senate race in Kansas is the much likelier win for Democrats of the two, but Adam Hamilton's momentum might help Holscher out here.  The laws of political gravity seem destined to box out Holscher in November, but there's enough ambiguity to this race and enough toxicity to the political climate for Republicans that an upset is not entirely out of the question.  Prediction:  Masterson by 5   Running Total:  Dems +2

Maine--Two-term Democrat Janet Mills is retiring this year in the aftermath of her humiliating Senate primary defeat, leaving behind an open seat.  The Senate race is the main event in the Pine Tree State this year, but Maine's ranked-choice voting system means it's to some degree a jump ball, especially with an independent candidate in the mix.  Still, the independent is a former Republican lawmaker, which probably doesn't bode well for the GOP in taking on Democratic frontrunner Hannah Pingree, the former speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, who prevailed in a crowded primary field.   The Republican nominee is former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles.  Charles is an underdog, especially in this political climate, but particularly with the hard-fought Senate race playing out in the background, there's at least a bit of uncertainty here.  Prediction:  Pingree by 6.

Maryland--The Old Line State is giving us a rematch of the 2022 gubernatorial race.  Democrat Wes Moore decisively won the first battle and is running for a second term, where he'll be heavily favored against former state delegate Dan Cox.  Moore clearly has higher ambitions than the Maryland statehouse but should be rewarded with the kind of mandate in November that will be helpful in laying that groundwork for him.  Particularly with the DOGE bloodshed in the DC area, I'm expecting a particularly dark shade of blue from Maryland this year.  Prediction:  Moore by 35.

Massachusetts--In the Bay State, I'm expecting a carbon copy of what I predicted in Maryland, with the deep blue state re-electing a freshman Democratic Governor to a second term.  In this case, Democrat Maura Healey will face off against Republican Michael Minogue, the former CEO of Abiomed.  Perhaps there's more going on on the ground than I'm giving credit for here, but I suspect this will be a blowout for Healey.  Prediction:  Healey by 32.

Michigan--Democrats dodged a major bullet when former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan dropped his independent bid, ensuring a winnable two-candidate race would transpire for this open seat being vacated by two-term Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.  Now that the race has settled, it's starting to look like a done deal for a Democratic hold with Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holding a decisive lead in the polls against the Republicans' long-time rising star and one-time overperformer John James, who appears poised to flame out with a disappointing resume of accomplishments.  It's entirely possible that polls are overstating Benson's advantage, but the pattern of Michigan midterm electorates showing up a lot bluer than Presidential-year electorates seems to be the more likely scenario right now, potentially to the great relief of the Democrats given their polarizing Senate nominee. I'm not quite to the point where I expect Benson to do as well as Whitmer did in 2022, but it wouldn't at all surprise me if she did.  Prediction:  Benson by 7.

Minnesota--At this point, I've seen enough to be confident that the Minnesota statehouse is likely to stay in Democratic hands even after two-term incumbent Tim Walz is poised to leave office in unfortunate disgrace due to the fraud scandal.  With that said, I'm still not entirely sure what kind of electorate is gonna show up in Minnesota on November 3 and am hedging my bets a bit with more bearish predictions that most analysts may anticipate.  Democrats may well be running the only person who could hold this seat for them with popular long-time Senator Amy Klobuchar making the pivot from Washington to St. Paul.  Klobuchar's residual popularity among independents, moderate Republicans, and realigned Iron Rangers should be enough for a decisive win against Republican Speaker of the House Lisa Demuth.  But unlike Klobuchar's four Senatorial wins, I suspect this one will fall short of double digits.  Minnesota Democrats absolutely face a reckoning over the state's unpopular East African demographic shift and its downstream consequences, but it's not likely to happen in the 2026 gubernatorial election.  Prediction:  Klobuchar by 8.

Nebraska--There's a crowded gubernatorial field in the Cornhusker State this year, telegraphing at least some degree of unpredictability regarding the outcome.  To be sure, Republican incumbent Jim Pillen is the frontrunner for winning a second term, but former Republican legislator Brett Lindstrom is running as an independent and it's not yet clear what kind of traction he'll have.  A Legal Marijuana Now party candidate (remember them?!?!) will also be on the ballot.  The Democratic nominee is former state senator Lynne Walz, a cousin of the current Minnesota Governor/former running mate to Kamala Harris.  Color me skeptical that a blood relative of Tim Walz has any chance in Nebraska, even in an environment like this with an unsettled multicandidate field.  I'll count on the usual scenario playing out where partisans ultimately break to their own party line rather than a third party and predict a relatively safe win for Pillen.  Prediction:  Pillen by 12.

Nevada--This is one of the toughest races in the country to call despite its strangely low profile in the national spotlight.  Nevada has been trending Republican since the Obama years but is still very much a purple state.  In the last midterm, a Democratic Senator was re-elected by less than 1 point while a Republican gubernatorial nominee beat an incumbent Democratic Governor by less than 1 point.  That Republican upset came at the hands of Joe Lombardo, who is now the incumbent running for a second term.  Lombardo is considered a generally moderate Republican whose resume doesn't give considerable ammunition to turn him out, but he's still considered vulnerable against his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Aaron Ford.  The partisan tide in the Silver State rises as falls with the Hispanic vote and that's what is keeping Ford in the game as Hispanics nationally appear poised to pivot back to the Democrats quite aggressively this year.  There hasn't be a great deal of polling for this race so I'm going in blind, but I think incumbency might shield Lombardo from an upset this year, but it'll probably be closer than the outcome the 2024 election results in Nevada telegraphed.  Prediction:  Lombardo by 2

New Hampshire--I've long assumed that the Granite State was destined to follow the same track as neighboring Vermont, getting decisively bluer with each cycle, and particularly as the national GOP trends more to a hard-right MAGA posture and away from blue-blood Yankee Republicanism.  But the assumption keeps not getting backed up the voting returns.  Particularly in nonfederal races, New Hampshire has become a definitively red-leaning state.  Even in the 2024 open seat, former Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte had an easy win.  Ayotte is running for a second term this year and every indication is that she's poised for another decisive victory.  The reviews for Ayotte's Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington have been, well, lukewarm.  And with New Hampshire's apparent preference for center-right Republicans at the state level, I don't currently see much of an opening for a Warmington upset even in a Democratic tsunami.  Prediction:  Ayotte by 10.

New Mexico--With the retirement of two-term incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham, the light blue Land of Enchantment would ordinarily seem like a good opportunity for a Republican flip.  But with a candidate profile imbalance coupled with what appears to be genuine Hispanic hostility toward Trump and Republicans this year, the New Mexico statehouse seems well-positioned to stay in Democratic hands for another term.  Former Congresswoman and U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is the Democratic emissary while the best Republicans could do is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull.  I could be overestimating Haaland's advantage with scant polling to either validate or contradict me, but I'm going with the conventional wisdom that this will be a layup for Haaland.  Prediction:  Haaland by 11.

New York--After a surprisingly close 2022 election in the red-trending Empire State, the conventional wisdom was that New York would be a toss-up in 2026.  Had Kamala Harris won the Presidency two years ago, I'd have been completely onboard with that premise.  But since Donald Trump won, New York Democrats have a new lease on life and Kathy Hochul gets to run for a third term as the prohibitive favorite.  As recently as January, I'd anticipated an ugly clash with newly installed New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani, but that hasn't happened and Mamdani has remained surprisingly popular without any major ruffling of feathers.  I also anticipated Elise Stefanik to be Hochul's Republican challenger.  Shameless as she is, Stefanik would have had the standing to compete with Hochul.  But after one too many betrayals by Trump, Stefanik both retired from Congress and dropped out of the gubernatorial race.  This left Republicans with Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman as their nominee.  Given his geographical ties to red-trending Long Island, I won't fully discount Blakeman's candidacy, but every indication that he picked the wrong year to try to be the first Republican elected statewide in New York since George Pataki.  Prediction:  Hochul by 13.

Ohio--The risk in making my predictions a couple of weeks early is that a late October surprise could upend the trajectory of the race.  In the case of the Buckeye State, I'm glad I made my Senate predictions a week before my gubernatorial predictions, because a race I was poised to give just a narrow win to Democrat Amy Acton now seems poised to become a much more substantial win thanks to a massive unforced error by Republican challenger Vivek Ramaswamy.  The nation largely united in their horror at the Ramaswamy campaign ad pitting an estranged mother against her daughter given their complicated and traumatic history.  It was a desperation swing straight out of the gutter from Ramaswamy and I'm quite confident that it cost him any chance he had at the election.  But I also don't want to overstate its significance in a nation as polarized as this one.  Don't expect Acton to replicate Ted Strickland's winning 2006 county map due to a comprehensive repudiation of Ramaswamy's sliminess.  This race will still probably be relatively close, but unlike Trump bouncing back from the 2016 "Access Hollywood" tape, I think Ramaswamy's goose is actually cooked here.  If Republicans hadn't insisted on running the nasty Ramaswamy as their emissary in the gubernatorial race, this could all have likely been avoided.  Prediction:  Acton by 5.  Running Total:  Dems +3

Oklahoma--It wouldn't be a midterm cycle if Democrats didn't think they had a decent chance of picking up the Governor's office in the deeply conservative Sooner State and so it goes this year.  To be sure, Democrats got their preferred candidate to challenge with former state senator Mike Mazzei, who narrowly defeated a more moderate challenger in the primary.  The Democrats have an attractive nominee in former House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson who might be a contender in most open-state gubernatorial races on a year when their party is on offense, but Oklahoma is no ordinary red state.  The 2018 and 2022 contests had tied polls going into election day, only to see outgoing Republican Governor Kevin Stitt win by double digits.  The only difference this year is even the polls aren't showing a tie.  If Munson is able to hold this race to single digits, that would be quite an accomplishment, but I have my doubts she'll even be able to do that.  Prediction:  Mazzei by 14.

Oregon--Every four years, it seems as though Democrats' luck may have finally run out in the Beaver State after literal decades of uninterrupted governance.  Even a few weeks ago, it seemed that that might be the case once again in 2026, with Democratic first-term Governor Tina Kotek within the margin of error in polling in her pursuit of a second term, four years removed from her underwhelming 3-point victory in a three-way race with an independent candidate.  In 2026, there are no independents splitting the anti-Kotek vote, so it's a one-on-one rematch between Kotek and Republican state senator Christine Drazan.  As is the case in so many of these races, if Harris had won in 2024, I suspect Drazan might have finally been able to end the Democrats' streak in Oregon.  But with Republican voters demoralized and Democrats emboldened, the arithmetic in this deep-blue state seems too overwhelming for Kotek to be denied another term.  Maybe 2030 will finally be their year!  Prediction:  Kotek by 4.

Pennsylvania--The pattern seems poised to continue of the Keystone State looking deep blue in midterms only to pivot to a red-tilting battleground state in Presidential cycles.  Four years ago, Democrat Josh Shapiro had a lay-up and crushed a deeply problematic Republican challenger by double digits.  This year, Shapiro is running for a second term and seems poised for an even stronger performance up against a less terrible challenger in Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity.  Shapiro's dominance at the top of the ticket could have considerable downballot repercussions for Republicans in both the House and the legislature, and it's really a shame for Democrats that they don't have a U.S. Senate seat up this cycle to take advantage of it.  Prediction:  Shapiro by 19.

Rhode Island--There's a three-way race for the Rhode Island statehouse after Democrat Dan McKee became the rare incumbent Governor to lose his party's primary last month.  Defeating McKee was fellow Democrat Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive.  Foulkes immediately became the frontrunner in the dark blue Ocean State after winning the Democratic primary, but there's at least some complication by the presence of independent Ken Block, founder of the Moderate Party, who has been polling in double digits.  The Republican nominee is former Lieutenant Governor candidate Aaron Guckian.  This would likely be a very different race if the unpopular McKee had prevailed in his primary, and it might still be more competitive if Foulkes' opposition wasn't divided between a Republican and independent.  But given the divided competition, Rhode Island's Democratic advantage and Foulkes' outsider presence in a year shaping up as blue as this one makes Foulkes a pretty clear favorite.  It's still very unclear how to game this three-way race though, as some late consolidation could occur between the two challengers.  Prediction:  Foulkes by 11.

South Carolina--The sustained narrative about the potential competitiveness of the Senate race in the Palmetto State is very unlikely to impact the gubernatorial race.  It's an open seat, with two-term Republican incumbent Henry McMaster termed out.  Prevailing in a crowded Republican primary field was state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who even in a strong Democratic year will be a prohibitive favorite against state representative Jermaine Johnson, his token Democratic challenger.  If reports of a competitive Senate race drive up black turnout, this race could get closer than the baseline suggests, but Wilson will still win by double digits.  Prediction:  Wilson by 15.

South Dakota--The lingering stench of Kristi Noem won't be enough to break the Republicans' half-century stranglehold on the South Dakota statehouse. The last time Democrats won a Governor's race in the Mount Rushmore State was three years before I was born.  The closest they've come since was 2018 when Billie Sutton fell just short of saving the country from the pending legacy of the aforementioned Noem.  Noem's Republican heir apparent Larry Rhoden, who has served as Governor for most of the last two years, prevailed somewhat unexpectedly in a crowded primary field and should cruise to a full second term against perennial Democratic challenger Dan Ahlers.  Prediction:  Rhoden by 21.

Tennessee--Whenever you think things can't get worse for Democrats in the Volunteer State, events find a way to make it still worse.  The Supreme Court overturning the Voting Rights Act and Tennessee's legislature taking immediate advantage for a mid-decade gerrymander to definitively snuff out the state's lone Democratic seat in Memphis will likely cause black voter turnout to crater statewide.  Two-term Republican Bill Lee is riding off into the sunset and is poised to be replaced by Republican Senator and right-wing hero Marsha Blackburn.  Even though Tennessee Republicans have shown some signs of having Blackburn fatigue, it won't come close to being enough for most of them to consider voting for a Democrat.  Memphis city councilwoman Jerri Green, the low-key Democratic nominee, certainly won't be able to get the job done with her shoestring campaign.  If I'm right about black turnout plummeting, this race will be no less lopsided in this hypothetical "blue wave year" than it would be in previous GOP-leaning cycles.  Prediction:  Blackburn by 27.

Texas--Are Texans really so fed up with Republicans that they're gonna toss out Greg Abbott?!?!  I still think it's odds-against but the chances are not zero.  Greg Abbott is certainly not acting like a man who thinks he's about to be re-elected by double digits.  Only on election night will we know the magnitude of the predicted Democratic surge in the Lone Star State, but I am really doubtful that it rises high enough to drag state representative Gina Hinojosa across the finish line and into the Governor's mansion.  It would be an absolute scream if Abbott's hubris in pursuing a fourth term was met with acute and completely unexpected humiliation.  It couldn't happen to a nicer guy than Abbott, but it's probably too tall of an order.  Most polls show Abbott running at least three points ahead of Ken Paxton in the Senate race.  I can buy Talarico ekeing out a win in this environment as I predicted last week, but I can't buy him winning by so much that Hinojosa can run three points behind him and still prevail.  Prediction:  Abbott by 4.

Vermont--Moderate Republican Phil Scott has held down the Vermont statehouse for a decade now, and is running for a sixth two-year term as the prohibitive favorite even in the country's bluest state.  A poll came out showing Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo in a statistical tie with Scott, but I suspect it's an outlier.  Scott would be wise to not be caught napping running in such a blue state as his landslide margins in previous cycles won't necessarily insulate him in a tsunami but come election day I'm still confident that Scott comes out decisively ahead.  Prediction:  Scott by 13.

Wisconsin--Two-term Democratic Governor Tony Evers is retiring and his party narrowly averted catastrophe in the primary this summer, in no small part because of Evers' heavy hand.  After a comedy of errors in the lead-up to the primary, Evers endorsed Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley into a race he'd already dropped out of only a week before the primary.  Democrats were poised to nominate state representative Francesca Hong, who was basically the real-life embodiment of a Oberlin-educated progressive archetype.  Hong would have been a calamity for her party in a general election, but against all odds, Crowley came from out of nowhere to narrowly beat her.  That set him up against Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, the GOP standard-bearer, who made some dramatic headlines of his own recently.  It's been a wild ride all year to get to this general election finish line, and the race remains a bit of a tossup, albeit with Crowley appearing to have a narrow advantage.  It wouldn't blow my mind if Tiffany found a way to win but my money is on Crowley prevailing because of the environment.  Prediction:  Crowley by 3.

Wyoming--As usual, there's not much buzz about the open gubernatorial seat in the Equality State, vacated by two-term Republican Mark Gordon, at least not for the general election.  The excitement came in the summer primary where the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus made a push to dominate the state Republican Party but were soundly defeated up and down the ballot.  Trump's hand-picked Republican nominee lost to state Senator Eric Barlow, who will run against perennial Democratic candidate Kenneth Casner in the general election.  Barlow should keep the GOP's streak alive in Wyoming without breaking a sweat.  Prediction:  Barlow by 43.

 

I have Democrats netting three statehouses this fall, which would be impressive if I'm right given that Democrats already had a pretty good grasp on statehouses based on the last couple of midterms.  Even going back a year from now when there were already early signs of a strong Democratic year percolating for 2026, I wouldn't have expected we'd be in a place where I was predicting Hobbs would hold on, where Hochul seemed poised to cruise into another full term, where Sand was a prohibitive favorite to flip Iowa, where Lance Bottoms and Acton were no worse than even money to flip Georgia and Ohio, where Lombardo would be endangered in Nevada, and where Dems have a very solid chance of flipping Alaska and even holding Kansas.  

Unfortunately, history is repeating itself on the worst possible calendar schedule for Democrats, as this gubernatorial race lineup bears a striking resemblance to what we saw in 2006.  Back then, Democrats prevailed in most of the contested gubernatorial races even in places where the back and forth suggested it should go the other way.  Ultimately, four years later, those races did go the other way, just in time for Republicans to draw themselves a decisive long-term advantage in redistricting.  The Democrats' habit of sweeping wins in the least consequential mid-decade races only to get demolished ahead of the most consequential beginning of decade races appears likely to play out once again.  Political parties don't often think even one move ahead, but surely in the back of their minds, savvier Democratic operatives will have qualifiers in their mind during next month's victory parties that their high level of exposure going into 2030 has a very good chance of being extremely problematic.

Would I be willing to sacrifice some state losses in 2026 if it meant a more stable position for 2030?  Probably.  I mean, that's easy for me to say when it comes to states I don't live in dealing with the consequences of Republican governance, but in the aftermath of redistricting that heavily favors Republicans, everybody in the country gets a full decade to deal with the consequences of Republican governance of more states.  It probably comes as no surprise then that I have far more investment in favorable Democratic outcomes for the Senate races than the gubernatorial races this cycle.  Come 2030, I suspect it will be a different story regarding which body that I prioritize.

On the weekend before the election, I'll be back with some final thoughts before the big night, which will probably include a loose prediction on the number of U.S. House seats I think the Democrats stand poised to gain and, possibly, some revised thoughts on the Senate and gubernatorial predictions, although I'm most likely stick with my tradition of standing by my original predictions even if late-breaking trends suggest things might be going the other direction.  

 

 

2026 Senate Race Predictions

As is my tradition, I'm making my final predictions for the 2026 Senate races a couple of weeks earlier than most people do.  My position has always been that it feels like cheating if you wait for the weekend before the election, but that position has evolved in recent cycles.  The 2024 cycle was a classic example where an imagined narrative took hold in the closing days of the campaign with no basis in reality, sweeping up one side in irrational exuberance and leading to bonkers predictions.  Making my predictions before that closing weekend window helps me to avoid the kind of insanity we saw in early November 2024, where Democrats convinced themselves based on flimsy data points that Kamala Harris was surging to the finish line with blistering momentum.  I didn't buy into it as much as most, but even I would have likely tweaked some margins in my final predictions if I'd waited three weeks.  The gravitational pull of the prevailing narrative was just too strong to resist.

My intuition has led me to pretty good predictions in the last few cycles.  I've rarely taken the bait on too-good-to-be-true contests but have let the fundamentals and trend lines in past elections guide the predictions, and it's suited me well.  Frankly, it's easy when Donald Trump is on the ballot.  You always know that the polls are too friendly toward Democrats and that Republican voters are gonna show up in much greater numbers than expected on election night.  Midterms have gotten trickier after the Trump realignment though as his voters haven't been showing up at the polls in the necessary numbers to score GOP wins.  With Trump's approval rating in the toilet heading into this midterm and Republican enthusiasm ebbing, that generally bodes very poorly for his party, meaning my predictions are poised to be more bullish for Senate and gubernatorial races this year than they'd have been in most cases two years ago.

On the other hand, several of this year's key Senate battlegrounds are states that have shown some of the most substantial polling errors in the last decade, and almost always favoring Democrats.  That lowers my confidence considerably and is tugging me in different directions, forcing me to go with my gut on what the electorate might look like on November 3 for a number of key races.  Let's get rolling on this thing and see how I do....

 

Alabama--However high the Democratic tide rises next month, don't expect it to rise high enough to make the Yellowhammer State competitive for Democrats.  Retiring incumbent Republican Tommy Tuberville will be decisively replaced by fellow Republican Congressman Barry Moore from Alabama's Wiregrass region.  Even in this encouraging environment for Democrats, the best they could do as a token challenger to Moore in this open seat was Birmingham attorney Everett Wess.  I'll be curious to see if the prevailing political winds move the needle even a little. Prediction:  Moore by 28.

Alaska--This was a race I pegged early as a top Democratic pickup opportunity.  I don't know a lot about two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and I sensed people from his state probably didn't know as much about him as they might prefer either.  He's hardly an institution and seemed like exactly the kind of Republican who could be felled in a toxic political environment, and the Last Frontier seemed like exactly the kind of state where it could be done as it's one of the few red states trending less red.  Democrats scored their dream recruit with former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who had already slayed the dragon of Sarah Palin in a previous statewide run.  Every indication is that Peltola is poised to get the job done as she's posted consistent polling leads, albeit in a state where polling is difficult and comparatively sparse.  I wouldn't be shaken to my core with confusion if Sullivan found a way to win, but despite the "bitch boss" revelation story by the New York Times, I think Peltola is gonna beat the incumbent.  Prediction:  Peltola by 3   Running Total:  Dems +1

Arkansas--Unlike Alabama, Arkansas Democrats deserve some credit for fielding a strong candidate here.  Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner is a farmer from Jackson County (formerly the Democratic heartland in rural northeastern Arkansas) who has become an outspoken advocate against tariffs after leaving her family's farm last year due to the financial strain.  She's young, attractive, and a perfect counterpunch to two-term incumbent Republican Tom Cotton, a hawkish Trump disciple and avatar of everything people generically consider wrong with Washington.  If she came onto the scene in 2018, it's not out of the question that Shoffner might have pulled this off.  Unfortunately, Arkansas is almost assuredly too far gone at this point.  Shoffner's candidacy is impressive enough that I won't fully rule this out as a sleeper that breaks late in an intensely Democratic national environment.  But I suspect the Democratic Party lacks the infrastructure to identify and get out its vote strongly enough to make this competitive even in a perfect storm.  I'm baking in a last-minute outside-money flourish by Shoffner in my prediction but I still think she falls short of the losing numbers Mark Pryor got in 2014.  Prediction:  Cotton by 19.

Colorado--I regularly forget that Democrat John Hickenlooper is a United States Senator.  It's rather astonishing how anonymous he's been in his first term after taking out a Republican incumbent in 2020.  The fact that Hickenlooper's name has come up exactly zero times in discussions of 2026 Senate battlegrounds tells you all you need to know about how competitive Colorado looks to be this fall.  Republican state Senator Mark Baisley is the sacrificial lamb trying to deny Hickenlooper a second term but he's not gonna get the job done.  Considering how badly the gubernatorial race seems poised to go for Rocky Mountain State Republicans, coupled with the ugly national environment for the GOP, this race could well be the most lopsided Democratic Senate win in Colorado in my lifetime.  Prediction: Hickenlooper by 22.

Delaware--It's been more than a decade since any statewide race in the First State has had any level of suspense at all.  Don't expect this year's Senate race to break that streak.  Democrat Chris Coons is running for a fourth term and can be expected to bulldoze his Republican challenger, former state Senator Michael Katz.  Prediction:  Coons by 23.

Florida--The Sunshine State's evolution to Alabama, ongoing throughout the 2010s, reached its completion on the other end of the pandemic.  It's unwinnable terrain for Democrats, and particularly unwinnable when Democrats nominate an unflinching DSA socialist as they inexplicably did in August.  The tone-deafness of nominating a self-described socialist in present-day Florida speaks volumes of the problems that the Democratic Party is gonna face in trying to rein in its base in 2028.  Angie Nixon is very likely to complicate the re-election efforts of embattled incumbents like Jared Moskowitz and Darren Soto, whose backs are already against the wall because of the gerrymander that turned their formerly blue districts a Trump shade of red.  The best Democrats can hope for is an emaciated GOP turnout that holds down the margins for Republican quasi-incumbent Ashley Moody going for her first full term in Marco Rubio's old Senate seat.  As anonymous as Moody is generally and as bad as the environment is for Republicans, I still think having Nixon as a foil will spike turnout among South Florida Cubans and greedy geezers in The Villages alike.  Had Democrats nominated Alex Vindman, I suspect they'd have held Moody's win to single digits and potentially saved a couple House Democrats embattled by the new map.  But with Nixon, the only thing preventing a 2022-style blowout in Florida will be the toxic national environment and demoralized GOP base.  Prediction:  Moody by 12.

Georgia--Of all the races where my intuition last year has failed to live up to the reality on the ground this year, the Peach State is at the top of the list.  Democratic freshman Jon Ossoff seemed like a long shot for re-election even in the Trump era because I questioned whether black turnout would be sufficient in a midterm for a white Democratic Senator to prevail.  Ossoff has made a believer out of me, stepping up his game rhetorically and as a fundraiser and riding the wave of his state's steep demographic shifts.  Georgia has been marching to the left at a dizzying speed and it feels as though the Democratic ceiling has been raised to the point where statewide victory no longer needs to be by the skin of their teeth.  All signs point to Georgia in 2026 crossing the threshold that Virginia did in 2008, where its battleground status takes on a bluer shade of purple.  At this point, the bigger question is not whether Ossoff wins, but whether he wins by so much that he drags Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms across the line in the gubernatorial race.  Prediction:  Ossoff by 7.

Idaho--On paper, veteran Gem State Republican Jim Risch seems like exactly the kind of incumbent who might be vulnerable in a wave election.  In a year like 2006, before the inelastic tribal fault lines took hold, such a perfect storm might have been doable.  After all, token Democratic challenger David Roth dropped out and threw his support to an independent, former state representative Todd Achilles.  After the surprise success of Dan Osborn in Nebraska in 2024, Democrats have warmed up to the idea of running trojan horse Democrats as independents in bright red states with the hope that the stain of the national Democratic Party's reputation won't stick to them.  In the case of Achilles, he's run as both a Republican and a Democrat in the past before switching to independent.  That could either help persuade voters he's truly unaffiliated with either party and might govern as a moderate or it could lead voters to presume he's an opportunistic grifter content to go whichever the way the wind is blowing.  None of it will be enough to overcome Idaho's blistering Republican advantage, but I think it'll be the closest Senate race in nearly 20 years in Idaho, for whatever that's worth given that it'll still be a blowout.  Prediction:  Risch by 22.

Illinois--It's rather astonishing how below the radar the contest for this open seat vacated by long-time Democratic Senator Dick Durbin has been.  It's not as though this race was ever gonna be winnable for Republicans, but it's striking it hasn't even been part of the conversation since Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton scored her upset win in the Democratic primary.  Former Republican state party chair Don Tracy has proven to be just as limp of a challenger as anticipated, but I'm still expecting a Stratton margin of victory considerably closer to Kamala Harris's soft 2024 win than Obama's 2008 Presidential margin.  The "wave" tendency of this election seems increasingly likely to be a matter of red-state overperformance by Democrats while blue states tread water.  In much of Middle America, we can probably expect to see some unexpected vote in backlash to Donald Trump, but in a place like downstate Illinois, I expect we'll see the priority continue to be a backlash to Chicago.  Prediction:  Stratton by 13.

Iowa--Every indication is that my adopted home state is gonna be a bloodbath for Republicans this year in the aftermath of its decade-long stampede to the right.  And I certainly do believe Democrats will see considerable gains, but will it be enough to turn retiring Republican Joni Ernst's Senate seat blue?  It's certainly possible.  In fact, as of this writing, Democratic state representative Josh Turek holds a narrow lead in most polls against Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson.  Both have proven to be adept candidates running solid campaigns.  However, every election cycle going back to 2014 has seen Democrats polling much better before election day than on election day.  Graveyards are full of Democratic candidates thought to be competitive in October who were beaten in November, including Bruce Braley, Fred Hubbell, Theresa Greenfield, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris.  This track record leads me to believe Josh Turek will join these previous Democrats in the graveyard.  It's entirely possible that the polling in Iowa will be right this time, but since it hasn't been in the last six cycles, the safest bet is go with the GOP when it looks like a tie.  Prediction: Hinson by 2

Kansas--Just like Dan Sullivan in Alaska, I identified Republican freshman Roger Marshall as vulnerable more than a year ago, even as everybody else was saying "yeah but it's Kansas".  Marshall is an arrogant, tone-deaf Senator who underperformed the baseline six years ago and would be easy to catch napping if Democrats nominated somebody good.  And even though it came late in the process, Democrats did nominate somebody good in Adam Hamilton, the pastor of the largest church in Kansas and their unlikeliest competitive nominee at least since Jim Webb in 2006.  Hamilton has put forth a great campaign and Marshall is on his heels, doing all the things a desperate Senator does when he thinks he's a month away from losing.  While Kansas polls have underestimated Republicans in the past, including the previous time Marshall ran statewide, I'd be surprised if they could stop Hamilton's momentum at this point.  I suspect Hamilton will be a pain in the ass for his party once elected, but I nonetheless expect he'll be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932.  Prediction:  Hamilton by 4.  Running Total:  Dems +2

Kentucky--The biggest suspense related to the Bluegrass State's Senate contest will be whether retiring Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell lives long enough to finish his term.  Democrats were never credibly positioned to win statewide federal office this year regardless of the partisan tide, but Democratic primary voters' selection of losing 2022 nominee Charles Booker over losing 2020 nominee Amy McGrath undoubtedly dug their hole deeper.  The east Kentucky conservative Democrats who could theoretically tip the race into the Democratic column would never go for a black Democrat from Louisville.  Furthermore, Republicans nominated a strong candidate in Congressman Andy Barr, who has represented the Lexington-area 6th Congressional district, which is as close as Kentucky gets to a battleground, for more than a decade.  I'm not anticipating this race will run much closer for Democrats than recent federal races in the state.  Prediction:  Barr by 21.

Louisiana--A slightly more interesting contest has come together in the Bayou State after two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy was tossed out of office in this summer's primary, just as I predicted would happen in February 2021 when Cassidy voted to impeach Trump.  Congresswoman Julia Letlow, ordained by the party's master as MAGA's preferred candidate, is the Republican nominee.  Just as in neighboring Arkansas, Democrats are running a farmer, in this case black farmer Jamie Davis from northeastern Louisiana.  I haven't seen or heard Davis in action so I have no basis to judge his aptitude, but a couple of questionable polls have come out showing him only a few points behind Letlow.  Ultimately, I'd be shocked if this race ended up being close as I'm sure Letlow will consolidate the undecideds, but I can imagine there's some establishment Republicans butthurt about Cassidy's ouster who are still cool toward Letlow at this stage.  Many of them may even sit this election out.  Between that and the general hostile climate toward Republicans, I could see Davis making some inroads along the margin, particularly in New Orleans and Baton Rouge suburbs, but it won't be enough for this contest to be anywhere near as close on election day as polls are showing now.  Prediction:  Letlow by 16.

Maine--I just don't get it!  What is it about the doddering grandma routine of five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins that voters in the Pine Tree State are so smitten with?!  Democrats narrowly averted the disaster of a Graham Platner nomination and settled upon former state senator Troy Jackson, who on paper seemed like the perfect alternative to thread the needle between progressivism and electability.  In practice, however, Jackson is at least as charmless and charisma-free as Collins and while he leads narrowly in most polls, he hasn't come close to putting this race away.  Collins managed an even bigger come-from-behind win in 2020 than what she needs here, although that was with the uniquely terrible polling of the 2020 cycle.  Can she defy gravity again?  It's possible, but I stand by my early intuition that she's outlived her usefulness in this blue-trending state in such a toxic environment....but I'm standing by my intuition with considerably less confidence than I'd have anticipated three months ago.  Prediction:  Jackson by 2.  Running Total:  Dems +3

Massachusetts--As it applies to the Bay State, disregard my previous predicted metric of less movement toward Democrats in blue states this cycle.  Democratic forever incumbent Ed Markey prevailed handily in his primary last month and will have just as easy of a time winning the general election as Republican attorney John Deaton, who was beaten by Elizabeth Warren two years ago.  With that said, I'm not expecting Markey to win by the 2-1 margin he did in 2020 because there's a third-party nominee running on the "Socialism and Liberation" party line this year.  Given the affinity for socialism among younger college students, of which Massachusetts has many, I'm expecting at least a mid-single-digit showing for that candidate, taking votes exclusively from Markey.  Prediction:  Markey by 28.

Michigan--The open seat in the Wolverine State, vacated by retiring two-term Democrat Gary Peters, might be the toughest race to call in the country because of the "Bradley effect" filtered through Islamophobia.  There's no question that we saw it in the Democratic primary where progressive doctor Abdul El-Sayed was ahead by double digits in the polls against fellow Democrat Haley Stevens, but he only eked out a 1-point win to get the nomination.  Fast forward to October and El-Sayed has a small lead in the polls against his Republican challenger, former Congressman Mike Rogers, but can the polls be believed?  I'm not convinced they can.  El-Sayed is a controversial figure but is well-spoken and has run a mostly strong campaign, probably winning over some skeptics in the last few months.  But based on the lopsided primary polling error and my intuition, I don't think he's won over enough. Prediction:  Rogers by 1.  Running Total:  Dems +2

Minnesota--In a showing of pure hubris, Minnesota primary voters handed Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan a landslide victory in the August primary over a more electable challenger, pretending as though the light blue state of Minnesota is Massachusetts.  Predictably, general election voters didn't warm up so quickly to the selection of an unpopular Lieutenant Governor with lackluster communication skills whose office is bedeviled by a major fraud scandal.  And here we are, a little over two weeks before the election, with the race to replace retiring Democrat Tina Smith that should have been put away by the Democrat weeks ago a statistical dead heat.  Republican challenger and sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya is essentially a white board that status quo critics can project their aspirations onto as she sleepwalks through the campaign hoping nobody notices that she knows nothing about policy.  And it might work.  If it wasn't for the Democratic mood nationally, it absolutely would work.  I'm not confident what the Minnesota electorate will look like this year, but if the Democrats' new base in outer suburbia decides they're more upset about the homegrown fraud scandal than they are with Trump, Tafoya could win.  Right now, I'm sticking with my intuition that the Democratic national tide is strong enough that it even manages to sweep Flanagan into office.  Prediction:  Flanagan by 2.

Mississippi--There was a scenario where the Magnolia State could have been competitive this year.  Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is a notorious underperformer unlikely to inspire base MAGA voters.  If an energized Democratic base showed up in lopsided numbers while white Republicans stayed home, there was a 2% chance Hyde-Smith could have been upset.  But that long shot scenario required a unified non-Republican vote, which we somehow didn't manage to get.  Former Democratic nominee Ty Pinkins is running as an independent and will almost certainly poach votes from this year's Democratic nominee Scott Colom.  The result will be a race that's not likely to be as close as the 2020 Mississippi Senate race when Hyde-Smith was last on the ballot.  Prediction:  Hyde-Smith by 12.

Montana--While there are number of instances where independents running as trojan horse Democrats in red states have left the GOP uniquely vulnerable, the situation in the Treasure State appears poised to install a Republican in an open seat who might have been beatable in a head-to-head race.  Two-term Republican incumbent Steve Daines resigned last spring in the sleaziest possible way, surprising everybody with his intent to retire on the day of the filing deadline and ensuring that his chosen successor, U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, would be the only Republican with the time to file and preventing any high-profile Democrats not already in the race to reconsider.  If former Democratic Senator Jon Tester or former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock had any advance warning and been convinced to run here, they could easily have made this race competitive in this environment.  Fortunately, the Democrats had an insurance plan for this race with University of Montana President Seth Bodnar running as an independent but with the backing of Tester and most other Montana Democrats.  In a perfect storm, this could have set them up with a challenger capable of beating Alme.  Unfortunately, Democrats also had a token candidate named Alani Bankhead who formally got her party's nomination.  The result is a three-way race where Alme is putting up strikingly weak numbers, but is still running well ahead of the divided opposition.  With a head-to-head race between Alme and a Democrat or a trojan horse Democrat running as an independent, I suspect this race would have been a 50-50 crap shoot.  Since I don't see a consolidation of the non-Alme vote coming in these final weeks of the campaign, we're probably looking at a race that isn't close at all but where Alme prevails with well under 50% of the vote.  Prediction:  Alme by 11.

Nebraska--The last time I took a peek at the Senate races, I was too bullish on the Cornhusker State.  Independent candidate Dan Osborn, the trojan horse Democrat who came within 7 points of beating Senator Deb Fischer two years ago and outran Kamala Harris more than any non-Republican in the country, is running again this cycle, this time against Nebraska's junior Senator and former Republican Governor Pete Ricketts.  If the environment is as ugly for Republicans as pollsters are telegraphing, there's still an outside chance Osborn could pull this off, but I fear his timing was wrong.  If it was Fischer he was running against this year rather than 2024, I suspect he'd have won.  But between the novelty of Dan Osborn having worn off a bit on his second run and facing a stronger challenger in Ricketts, it's not looking so good for him now.  Public polling shows Osborn only a few points behind but the lack of outside investment in the race is quite telling.  I'm still holding out some hope for this one but I think Osborn will fall short.  Prediction:  Ricketts by 5.

New Hampshire--Just as I'll never understand why Mainers love Susan Collins so much, I'll never understand the hold that the Sununu family holds over voters in the Granite State.  To be fair, former Republican Senator John Sununu is less obnoxious than his father or brother, but it's still rather astonishing that he's made a race out this open Senate seat vacated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.  There's some indication that Sununu peaked too soon though.  A month ago, this race was considered a tossup, but Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas has opened up a lead in recent weeks.  I still don't think Pappas has put this race away as he probably would have against a challenger without the Sununu surname, but I also don't think it's as strong of a GOP pick-up prospect as Michigan or Minnesota right now.  Democrats should feel fortunate that Sununu's attempted comeback didn't happen in 2014 or 2022 as he probably would have won those contests.  Prediction:  Pappas by 4.

New Jersey--What a difference two years makes!  In 2024, a surge of Hispanic support helped Donald Trump get within 6 points of victory in the long-blue Garden State, signaling a trend toward competitiveness.  The trend stalled pretty quickly though, as evidenced by the GOP's almost comically limp effort to unseat three-term Democratic incumbent Cory Booker.  Justin Murphy, the deputy mayor of Tabernacle, was the best the Republicans could do against the oily Booker this fall.  I expect Murphy to win the usual places Republicans win given how fixed the Democratic ceiling has become in New Jersey, but there's a reason this race is vastly quieter heading into election day than Republicans likely hoped it would be two years ago.  Prediction:  Booker by 17.

New Mexico--The last I had heard, freshman Democrat Ben Lujan didn't have any Republican challenger at all this year, but apparently an oilman named Larry Marker won a write-in vote in the otherwise empty Republican primary ballot. A generation ago, we would have expected something close to a clean sweep of every county for the incumbent, but we're too polarized for that nowadays and Marker will still probably win at least a dozen counties in the Land of Enchantment.  Still, it's a remarkable state of affairs that the underperforming Lujan, who won by only 6 points in 2020, was effectively unopposed in a state that's long been on the periphery of the battleground.  Particularly with the expected anti-Trump Hispanic voter backlash, Lujan will likely get the most decisive Democratic win since Tom Udall 18 years ago.  Prediction:  Lujan by 16. 

North Carolina--Last year at this time, I was convinced the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis would be close given the trajectory of the Tar Heel State and its internal realignment that has allowed the Republicans to remain a half-step ahead of Democrats for nearly 20 years now.  For what it's worth, I still anticipate the race to be closer than most polling shows, but the Republicans wouldn't be triaging their nominee Michael Whatley if they thought there was any lingering chance that the race would be competitive.  Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper will almost certainly be the next Senator from North Carolina and the Democrats' surest flip of a GOP-held seat.  Prediction:  Cooper by 6.   Running Total: Dems +3

Ohio--The special election for J.D. Vance's old Senate seat has been moving in the Democrats' direction according to polls, but it wouldn't be an even-numbered year without an election in the Buckeye State where Republicans outperform their polling by several points.  The Democrats landed a heavyweight candidate with former three-term Senator Sherrod Brown while Republicans are stuck with appointed Senator Jon Husted trying to fill out the remainder of his term.  It requires some serious second-guessing to try to parse the mood of the electorate in a cycle like this and try to figure out if Brown's modest polling lead is real.  Given the substantial and consistent Republican overperformance of polling in Ohio going back to 2014, I'd normally be inclined to bet on Husted pulling this out, but in this case I think the MAGA turnout will fall short and just enough of Brown's old industrial city voter base turns out for him, with a surge in support from upscale suburbs, and it's decisive enough for him to squeak by.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised though if Husted still found a way to win, and win rather decisively for that matter.  And given that even if Brown wins, it'll merely be a two-year rental until the seat comes up again in 2028, this race is a lower priority for me than most.  Prediction:  Brown by 1.  Running Total:  Dems +4

Oklahoma--The open seat to fill the Senate seat of Republican Markwayne Mullin, promoted to the Trump administration, should remain safely in Republican control.   Republican Congressman Kevin Hern is the GOP nominee while the Democratic nominee is a nurse named N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas that seems likely to rival the New Mexico oilman who won the GOP nomination as a write-in candidate as the year's most anonymous major-party nominee.  Not that long ago, Oklahoma Democrats were at least trying.  Prediction:  Hern by 33.

Oregon--While there's undoubtedly some degree of exhaustion with Democrats in the Beaver State, there's no question that three-term Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley will be handily re-elected to a fourth term against his challenger, Republican state Senator David Brock Smith.  It'll be a tall order for Merkley to top his performance against Jo Rae Perkins six years ago even in this strong Democratic environment, but I'll guess he matches it.  Prediction:  Merkley by 18.

Rhode Island--A lot of veteran Senators are retiring this cycle but not five-term Democratic incumbent Jack Reed, renominated for a sixth term against Republican challenger Raymond McKay, a former state GOP committee member.  Reed has always dominated his previous races and, despite a noticeable lurch to the right by the dark blue Ocean State in 2024, I doubt this will be the year that breaks Reed's streak of dominance.  Prediction:  Reed by 30.

South Carolina--This one is fool's gold.  Darline Graham is a genuinely horrendous candidate for the Republicans, but she isn't Roy Moore.  The perfect storm turnout model required to elect Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, with a surge in Democratic base enthusiasm and a collapse in Republican base enthusiasm, would require Darline Graham to be as uniquely terrible as Roy Moore.  The Palmetto State's comparatively low floor for Democrats, as red states go, can be deceptive in convincing Democrats from time to time that they have a chance here.  But the Republican vote is unmovable and is growing rather than shrinking proportionate to the Democratic base.  South Carolina is more like Florida than North Carolina or even Mississippi.  Bet on this seat staying in the hands of someone from the Graham family.  Prediction:  Graham by 7.

South Dakota--There have been whispers that the Senate race in the Mount Rushmore State is on the periphery of the 2026 battleground according to some private polls.  I won't discount the possibility entirely given that past Democratic nominee Brian Bengs followed Dan Osborn's lead, shedding his toxic (D) label and running as an independent.  If this was 20 years ago, I could absolutely imagine a scenario where South Dakota casts a protest vote against its Republican incumbent and sends a trojan horse Democrat (or a real Democrat for that matter) to Washington, but the brand has become so radioactive in the state during the Trump era that I suspect they'll default to the red.  Two-term Republican incumbent Mike Rounds probably seems harmless enough to keep around.  Even if South Dakotans might prefer a little more independence from the administration, it's a safe bet Rounds' campaign will effectively portray Bengs as the trojan horse Democrat that he is for him to win or even come close at the end.  Prediction:  Rounds by 17.

Tennessee--A case could be made that the Volunteer State has become the most inhospitable state in the country for electing a Democrat.  At the very least, there's no other state of its size in the country where a Democratic victory is as unthinkable as it is in contemporary Tennessee.  After all, they just cleanly gerrymandered the state's Congressional map to where all nine districts are double-digit GOP strongholds, locking out any Democratic hopeful from building a resume before a statewide run.  Odious freshman Republican Bill Hagerty will easily pull off a second term, and will be able to get it against the same fourth-rate Democratic challenger he had in 2020, activist Marquita Bradshaw.  Prediction:  Hagerty by 32.

Texas--The Lone Star State may finally be cracking for Republicans after more than 30 years.  I'm not fully convinced that it is because I think the Hispanic vote, particularly in Texas, has become so dynamic that it's nearly impossible to correctly model in polling.  And frankly, after that 2024 Republican blowout, it's really hard to imagine Texas is so quickly at a place where it can pivot to blue.  It's a unique situation though.  If Minnesota Democratic primary voters displayed a brash hubris in nominating Peggy Flanagan, Texas Republican primary voters exceeded them by orders of magnitude by tossing out four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in favor of scandal-plagued Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.  Most cycles, Paxton would still be able to find a way to win in Texas despite his warts simply because of the (R) next to his name.  And victory would be typically be a slam-dunk against liberal State Representative James Talarico, his challenger.  It isn't gonna be a slam-dunk this year though as the national mood seems to be even more lopsidedly problematic for Republicans in Texas.  I haven't been quite there yet in terms of predicting Talarico gets this, but the moment has now come where I'm forced to choose.  With a consolidation of the suburban managerial class and disaffected Hispanic voters returning in droves, there's an undeniable path for Talarico.  The polls show Talarico ahead and the campaigns are sure behaving like those polls are right. I won't fully believe it until I see it but I'm tilting this race in favor of Talarico right now, against all odds.  Prediction: Talarico by 1.  Running Total:  Dems +5

Virginia--The Old Dominion is another example of a blue state where I expect the forecasted Democratic wave fails to crest as high as it does elsewhere.  Newly installed Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger is off to a shaky start and the Democratic effort to draw up a lopsided mid-decade gerrymander instigated a fair amount of ill will, particularly after it was all for nothing.  None of this is to say three-term Democratic incumbent Mark Warner will be denied a fourth term.  He'll have another dominant win.  But he'll be lucky to prevail as strongly as he did six years ago let alone his first-term blowout win of 2008.  There's nothing specific about his Republican challenger, Army General Bert Mizusawa, that should engender any anxiety in Warner, but I expect a modest chunk of independent voters to be more likely to cast their ballot against Spanberger than against Trump.  And just like 2014 when Warner had a shockingly narrow win because his was the only high-profile race on the ballot, I also expect low turnout in Virginia that also stunts Warner's margin.  Prediction:  Warner by 13.

West Virginia--One demographic of voter whose voting behavior this cycle has me the most curious is Appalachia, and the West Virginia Senate election is as good of a proxy for the demographic as is possible.  There's no doubt whatsoever that two-term Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito will be safely re-elected to a third term, but will there be a noticeable shift to her Democratic challenger, former Morgantown councilwoman Rachel Fetty Anderson?  Or more likely, will there be a collapse in Republican turnout that creates a mirage of nominal Democratic momentum.  I think the second scenario is quite likely and I highly doubt that Capito will win by 43 points like she did six years ago when she was able to ride Trump turnout coattails.  Prediction:  Capito by 34.

Wyoming--Republican Cynthia Lummis is retiring after a single term, leaving an open seat in the Equality State.  Not unexpectedly, the seat is not being seriously contested in the most Republican state in the country.  Wyoming's loathsome at-large Congresswoman Harriet Hageman, who unseated Liz Cheney just two years ago, is going for a promotion to the Senate and will easily get it against her challenger, former Democratic state representative James Byrd.  It won't be close.  Prediction:  Hageman by 43.

 

I'm being unusually bullish and predicting that Democrats net five Senate seats on November 3, but I'm really on the fence with five races.  Of those five, I gave the Democrats three wins.  And I more confidently gave Dems both Alaska and Kansas, which are by no means sure things.  It wouldn't blow my mind if the Dems won all seven of the races mentioned but it also wouldn't blow my mind if they only won one or two of them.  So it goes when the polling is both close and untrustworthy.

If I'm right and the Democrats net five seats, they'll hold 52 Senate seats, insulating them from a John Fetterman party switch which I suspect will come if the Republicans either hold the Senate or if Democrats merely prevail 51-49.  Netting five seats would make 2026 the Democrats' best night for Senate pickups since 2008.

I don't think I'm all strung out on hopium to come to this conclusion either as the fundamentals really are terrible for Republicans, with an 11-point party ID advantage for Democrats according to Gallup's large sample earlier this month.  Even if Gallup's sample is two or three points too high, that still portends a significant advantage for Democrats where standard consideration for "polling error" at the state by state level is somewhat negated.

Of course, the usual caveats still apply here.  I'm only predicting what happens with election night results.  The conduct of Donald Trump, John Thune, and Mike Johnson to negate election outcomes they don't like, and a Supreme Court that will let them get away with it, is another story altogether. 

 

 

Who Is And Isn't Gonna Change Their Minds This Midterm?

We continue to hear a broad spectrum of pollsters and analysts telling us that a wave midterm election favoring Democrats is less than a month away, and most data points are clearly trending in that direction.  I caution that we never know what kind of electorate is actually gonna show up on the first Tuesday in November so my confidence level is never gonna be higher than a 5 out of 10 going into elections this year or for the foreseeable future.  I'll get to my formal Senate and gubernatorial race predictions in the weeks ahead, but before I do, I thought I'd single out a half dozen voting demographics that I predict are most likely to switch partisan allegiances next month in the largest numbers and in the smallest margins.

Most Likely To Swing Toward Democrats

#1. Hispanics

Arguably the biggest misjudgment by the Democratic Party in the last decade is that Hispanic voters were poised to behave more like black voters than Caucasian voters in the voting booth, remaining a loyal and unwavering Democratic constituency rather than integrating ideologically into the majority culture of the moment the way that most previous immigrant groups have.  As it turns out, people of Latin and Spanish descent were just as incapable of assessing the risk potential of putting a malignant narcissist in the most powerful position in the world as populations with ancestry from northern Europe.

The transformation of Hispanic voters into a swing constituency occurred more quickly than I expected, but it's hard to deny we're there now and likely will be in the cycles to come.  It was crazy to think Hispanics wouldn't become a swing constituency given the swings from left to right and back in Latin American political leadership over the decades, or for that matter, the visible integration we see between Latin and Anglo culture in pretty much every nook and cranny of the country.  Just yesterday, I walked past a homecoming party in central Iowa taking photos of one another, with three white guys who had three Latin girls on their arms.  Seeing this was a good anecdotal reminder that the left's "BIPOC" framing of the victimization pecking order was out of touch with the demographic reality.

With that said, it seems as though Trump's maximalist deportation strategy has touched a nerve with Hispanic voters, who feel personally singled out in a way that should have been obvious to them at this point two years ago.  Polling of Hispanics nationally and in Hispanic-heavy battleground states and districts seems to confirm a double-digit swing back to Democrats is likely forthcoming next month.  And yet, polling is not showing a Hispanic advantage as lopsided as we saw as recently as 2018.  A significant chunk of the 2018 Hispanic vote appears to have more decisively realigned regardless of Trump's aggression lopsidedly impacting their communities. Keep in mind that even with the elevated Hispanic margins of 2018, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Gillum, and Bill Nelson still lost.  That puts into question how consequential it will be if Democrats merely split the difference in 2026 between their 2018 and 2024 margins among Hispanics.  Still, any good Democratic night on November 3 will require robust shifts in the Hispanic vote, and I think that, for the most part, they're gonna get it.

#2.  Young Voters

Besides the neck-snapping swing by Hispanic voters toward Trump two years ago, the other big story that Democratic operatives finally discovered a month before the 2024 Presidential election was that young voters were also swinging decisively in Trump's direction.  It was mostly young men, including young men of color, but also included a measurable share of young women.  It was broadly underestimated how dissatisfaction with the status quo among the most formative demographic of voters would manifest itself into alignment with the opposition, no matter how grotesque that opposition happened to be.

The same principle is likely to lead to a seismic snapback by these same voters two years later as most of Gen Z is even more dissatisfied with the American status quo in 2026 under Trump than the 2024 status quo under Biden.  I'm putting an asterisk here, however, in that I think the pecking order of movement by young voters toward Democrats will have a steep gradient.  Young men of color will likely show the biggest shift toward Democrats.  Young women are already heavily Democrat and will continue to be, but by even sharper margins.  White young men, however, will likely only contribute to a hypothetical Democratic midterm victory by staying home in disproportionate numbers rather than swinging toward Democrats.  

The same cultural forces that drove young white men to both Trump and to personal crisis in 2024--isolation, underachievement, and radicalization from Big Tech's algorithms--have not improved and may in fact have worsened.  Trump's message drove them to the polls in a vote of no confidence two years ago.  His failure to rectify their concerns are more likely to demoralize them out of participation than signing on for what the Democrats are peddling.

#3.  Farmers and Farm Workers

It was estimated that 85% of American farmers went for Donald Trump in 2024, choosing to believe he would not pursue his loudly and constantly stated campaign promises that would unquestionably imperil their livelihoods.  The gamble didn't work as Trump went full steam ahead with policies that has submerged the American farm economy into the worst recession since the mid-80s farm crisis.  The mid-80s farm crisis altered farmer voting behavior in neck-snapping ways.  Among other things, it led to Iowa becoming Michael Dukakis's second-best state in 1988 and turning every single legislative seat in southwestern Minnesota blue back in 1986.

We're not gonna see anything like that in 2026.  Farmers and adjacent farm-industry workers will remain overwhelmingly Republican this year, with most of them confident that bottomless federal welfare checks will insulate them from any and all self-immolating choices they make in the voting booth.  Nonetheless, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate races would not all be competitive this year if Trump exhaustion among agriculture workers wasn't a real thing.  Perhaps the Republican lean of the farm vote shifts this year back to what we saw in 2014 rather than 2024.  

The rural vote has always fascinated me most on electoral county maps, and this year I look forward to seeing how counties in the American heartland compare this year to 2024 or 2022.  Will the precinct data look more like Kamala Harris's 2024 results in Nebraska or more like Dan Osborn's 2024 results in Nebraska?  If it looks more like the Dan Osborn results map as I suspect, that will make for a good night for Democrats.

 

Pivoting to the inverse, here are the voting demographics I suspect will be the most static in their alignment with the GOP this midterm.

#1.  Blue Collar and Union Workers

For generations, the Democrats kept conservative blue-collar workers in their coalition by being the most populist on economic issues while Republicans repeatedly played to type by aligning themselves with the priorities of big business.  In many ways, Trump has held serve with prioritizing business interests, but he's challenged them on the very issues that, rightly or wrongly, feel most sincere and most tangible to blue-collar workers.  And nothing that today's Democrats are saying or doing seems likely to alter this perception.

Blue-collar workers have long believed that their negotiating power in the workplace is enhanced if they're not competing with immigrants for jobs.  Because of Trump, there's far fewer immigrants competing with them for jobs.  They're not unhappy about this.  And while they may grumble about the inflation that's come in large part because of Trump's tariffs, they still see them as a net positive and believe they will work as intended in forcing domestic investment into a production economy that will benefit themselves and their kids and grandkids.  Trump is serving up the exact template of policies that blue-collar workers have waited for and believe in their souls will be what's best for them and their communities.  Even if the evidence of these policies' effectiveness is not necessarily compelling, they still believe Trump is a fighter on their behalf and haven't seen enough fallout yet to lose faith in their convictions that strident protectionism is the best policy for American workers.

#2.  Jews

I suspect Jewish voters will be the only demographic that trends decisively more Republican this year than Democratic.  Fortunately for Democrats, they're small in number and mostly concentrated in blue cities in blue states, with limited reach in battleground districts.  There are some isolated examples of where a slumping Jewish vote will be a problem for Democrats though, as we were reminded of last week when former Florida Democratic Congressman Peter Deutsch endorsed current Democratic Congressman Jared Moskowitz's Republican challenger because he doesn't want Democrats to control the House of Representatives due to their escalating anti-Israel posture.  Moskowitz already has his back to the wall this year with his south Florida district getting gerrymandered decisively redder.  If you consider that Deutsch is not likely on an island in being an older Jewish voter incensed by Democrats' shift against Israel, that's gonna make Moskowitz's job much harder along with David Jolly or anybody else with the unenviable task of trying to win statewide in Florida as a Democrat.

Deutsch endorsed Trump two years ago as well so he probably represents the core pro-Israel Jewish voter that the Democrats lost a few cycles ago, but millions of less hawkish Jewish voters are undoubtedly at their wit's end with the open displays of antisemitism and acts of violence against Jews taking place since October 7, 2023. Given that we're very likely to see more in the weeks before the election, the prospect of a modest Jewish voter realignment becomes more foreseeable.  The inherent liberalism of the majority of Jewish voters--along with equally virulent antisemitism coming from the political right--will likely keep the bottom from fully falling out for Democrats in the cycles ahead, but the demographic's loyalty to the Democratic Party is absolutely gonna be put to the test as the Democratic base voters increasingly consolidate their support around the Palestinians.

#3.  Evangelicals

It's ironic that Jewish voters are likely to become more Republican out of resistance to the holy war being waged against them while evangelical Christian voters will continue to align with both Israel and Republicans because of their desire to accelerate the pace of the holy war, believing it will bring about the Rapture and their own ascent to heaven.  It's the ultimate example of politics making the strangest bedfellows.

Ultimately though, for a demographic whose reputation is tireless adherence to their allegedly rigid principles, evangelicals are in reality the most moldable and transactional voters in the country.  Any given cycle, wherever the Republican Party needs them to be, they're gonna be.  If George W. Bush's Republican Party needs evangelicals to be on board with waging war against Iraq, evangelicals will be there for him.  If Donald Trump's 2016 Republican Party needs evangelicals to wash their hands of supporting war in Iraq, evangelicals will be there for him.  If Donald Trump's 2026 Republican Party needs evangelicals to do a heel turn and be back on board for waging war on Iran, evangelicals will be there for him.  If Donald Trump were to hypothetically change his position and support allowing transgender males on their daughter's sports team, I have no doubt whatsoever that evangelicals would find a way to get to the position that the leader of the Republican Party endorses.

This is why I can't see how the seemingly workable math in picking off Senate seats in South Carolina or Mississippi is ultimately able to work even in a best-case scenario.  The majority of the white vote in both states is evangelical, and if they're convinced that God himself is guiding the political party they're aligned with, then they're not gonna be movable under any circumstance.  The only question is whether evangelical turnout declines enough for Democrats to sneak a few wins on the edges, but it's highly unlikely it's gonna happen in any major statewide races.

 

Those are the macro voting trends I'm expecting to see next month.  My formal predictions for every Senate and gubernatorial races are coming in the next few weeks. 

 

 

Both Parties Are In A Really Bad Place Heading Into This Midterm

After Tuesday night's Delaware primary, the general election field is now set in all 50 states and the midterm is less than seven weeks away.  But even living in Iowa with multiple battleground races and a saturation of television advertising for the candidates, it doesn't feel like an election is less than seven weeks away.  In my decades of experience with elections, you can feel it in the air for months when the country is itching to get to the polls to vote.  There's an intangible energy and contagious enthusiasm that trickles beyond hard-core partisans and finds its way to Main Street.  Just about every house in the neighborhood has yard signs for their preferred candidate.  Campaigns are active enough that they even find their way to my slum apartment building to knock on doors.

I'm not seeing that in September 2026.  Not any of it.  

And honestly, the clearest unscientific metric I use to determine midterm election enthusiasm is what the lead story on the Sunday morning news shows happens to be in the weeks after Labor Day.  If the lead story is the midterm elections as it was in 2006, 2010, and 2018, the enthusiasm for the election is likely palpable.  If the lead story on "Face the Nation" is the Ebola virus in Africa as it was at this time in 2014, election enthusiasm is probably muted.  Supply and demand have a funny way of finding each other, even if unintentionally, and if there's less demand for election news, there will probably be a diminished supply that breaks through.

So what were the lead stories on "Face the Nation" and "Meet the Press" this Sunday? The media finally got the memo that AI is gonna kill us all.  Obviously, a big story, but it was nonetheless striking that it wasn't until after the third commercial break on "Face the Nation" that anybody had a word to say about the midterm elections.

How has this phenomenon played out in past midterm cycles?  Well, in 2014, when the media spent most of the fall discussing Ebola and the first "caravan" of Central American asylum seekers rather than the elections, turnout was the lowest of any midterm in the 21st century.  Obviously this is a pretty small sample size, but the warning sign is there that lackluster enthusiasm could lead to disappointing turnout.  I'm definitely not expecting 2014-level low turnout, but I'm certainly not expecting to be too impressed by the number of people who show up either.

And honestly, nobody should be surprised by this.  Politics has become emotionally exhausting, and whether it's the Democrats who are rightfully terrified by Trump's authoritarian tactics or Republicans disappointed by his broken promises, there no longer seems to be a reasonable means of controlling our collective destiny by who we elect to govern us.  Republicans who climbed aboard the snake oil wagon of the "I alone can fix it" huckster are disappointed to discover Trump is, shockingly, somehow not the messiah who turns water into wine that they signed up for. And most Democrats don't really believe that putting Hakeem Jeffries in charge of the House of Representatives or Chuck Schumer in charge of the Senate will have any meaningful impact in reining in Trump's authoritarianism.  Independents were already cynical and have been given no reason to be less so by anything going on in this campaign.

It certainly seems as though the downscale-skewing Republican coalition is most likely to be disappointed and demoralized heading into November so it does seem like the GOP is at greatest risk of a turnout collapse and a poor election night showing....with the usual caveat that Trump's dirty tricks arsenal will dramatically escalate in the weeks ahead and likely keep even a worst-case scenario election night for Republicans from looking as bad as it should.  But anybody who needs any further proof of how weak the Democratic opposition's hand is can look at any poll from the past year and a half showing voters more unhappy with the current composition of the Democratic Party than the GOP or the Trump administration.  This is true even in polls showing Trump with approval ratings south of 35%.  

That doesn't bode well for an enthused Democratic base pining to show up at the polls between now and November 3.  Perhaps negative partisanship will awaken some lethargic Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents from their slumber in the next seven weeks, but I expect it to be less than one would expect given the fundamentals.  Democrats are still likely to have a decent night, but it's hard to believe a blistering turnout is forthcoming at the behest of an opposition party with a higher unfavorable rating than Trump.

It all speaks to a uniquely beaten-down voting public terminally unhappy with their lives who see an even darker future on the horizon and no realistic path to ameliorate it with their choices at the ballot box.  Republicans who threw in with a cult-of-personality would-be messiah are instead getting a self-serving crook of unprecedented magnitude whose criminality exceeds my wildest expectations even when I was shouting from rooftops about it two years ago.  And Democrats....haven't really decided what they want.

The faction of Democratic voters that does envision a post-Trump escape hatch to their misery skews younger and is successfully edging the party dramatically to the left, often in the form of unashamedly embracing socialism.  This is to the chagrin of the grizzled pragmatists and independents who think even the establishment Democrats are too far to the left.  All of this is playing out with the backdrop of the Israel and Palestine civil war as a de facto fault line that will quite neatly break down the factions in the years ahead.  The two factions MIGHT be able to successfully unite against a shared enemy in Trump this autumn, but they're gonna absolutely tear each other's eyes out in the fight for the 2028 Presidential nomination that begins next year.

The uncertainty of AI adds another splash of cold water onto both parties' picnics.  Trump's unwavering advocacy of expanding a technology with growing public opposition will increase his party's vulnerability in the years ahead.  But the left-trending Democrats' multi-trillion-dollar safety net expansion promises will hit the brick wall of reality if, or more likely when, the AI revolution dramatically increases public need while dramatically decreasing revenues.  Whichever course we chart in the coming election cycles, the grouchy voters of today may be looked back upon by political parties as a comparatively more innocent time next to the grouchy voters they're gonna find down the road.

Even in the best-case scenario for humanity where a controlled rollout of AI generates less employment disruption than expected and is respected by the governments that possess it to abstain from an end-of-times arms race, it's still hard to imagine a scenario where most people won't feel displaced....aliens among their own species watching from afar as the life they were promised passes them by.  This is especially true of younger people, for whom the diminished value of their labor will exacerbate inequality and leave them fighting for table scraps with their homeowner grandparents sitting on portfolios with enough presence of Nvidia stocks to keep them hanging on to the middle class with their fingernails.

How does either party function in this environment?  For Republicans, the playbook will be as simple as it always is.  Identify the prime sources of financial and cultural friction and use them to pit enough groups against each other to cobble together an aggrieved majority.  In the abstract, this is likely to work for them with the regularity that is has since Nixon, but the complicating factor for the GOP will be a smaller-scale version of what will most bedevil the Democrats.  It's just hard to see how rising public needs have any chance of being met in the era of scarcity that comes in an aging population where deaths outnumber births, retirements outnumber college graduations, nursing home admissions outnumber new job creation, and the value of human capital sinks to new depths.  Republicans will have obligations to fewer demographic groups than will Democrats, but they'll still have to deliver something to somebody to motivate them to vote.

I think the majority of voters intuitively sense most of this in the fall of 2026.  They're probably not as pessimistic as me about the future, but they're acutely aware of their shrinking pool of options in fomenting change in the present.  At this point, I think the best that Democrats can hope for is that there's a critical mass of voters out there motivated to cast a vote of no confidence against a narcissistic madman running an international crime syndicate rather than running the country.  If Democrats need more votes than that to turn seats from red to blue across the country in seven weeks, they might be in some trouble, because people who believe that anybody in government has the ability to improve their lives are gonna as scarce as oysters with pearls in the foreseeable future. 

Stay tuned for my predictions in the Senate and gubernatorial races forthcoming in October.