Will the Democrats Make the House Their Home?

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up this November. The current partisan alignment is 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats and 1 independent who caucuses with Democrats. The Democrats have to pick up 15 Republican-held seats to win back the House next year. While this sounds like it would be imminently doable, the power of incumbency, Republican-friendly gerrymanders and the general lack of competitiveness in House races will make regaining the Speaker's gavel an uphill fight for Democrats. I will divide my thoughts on next years races into two tiers of competitiveness. I will offer in-depth profiles for what I consider top-tier races where I believe a real contest is likely to unfold in November. And I will give passing reference to second-tier races that have the potential to be competitive. Here goes:

Arizona, District 8 (sections of Tucson, Sierra Vista)--Moderate Republican Jim Kolbe is retiring after this term, leaving an open seat in a swing district. The terrain still narrowly favors Republicans, but this Mexican border district has a large and growing Hispanic population that could prove noteworthy, particularly if Republicans nominate frontrunner Randy Graf for the seat. Graf is a one-issue candidate with a feverish anti-immigration stance. This stance would resonate in the more conservative areas of Arizona such as the Phoenix suburbs, but it's much more of a gamble in this Hispanic-heavy swing district. The likely Democratic candidate is photogenic Gabrielle Giffords. Particularly if Graf gets the nomination on the Republican side, I think the national and statewide momentum in Arizona could swing this district blue. For now, I'm predicting a Democratic gain. (Running total: +1 Dems)

Colorado, District 3 (Pueblo, Grand Junction, Durango)--Democrat John Salazar won this open seat in 2004, propelled into office by his brother Ken's strong performance in the Colorado Senate race and a rising Democratic tide on Colorado's Western Slope ski area. The shift to Dems in fast-growing ski communities such as Steamboat Springs, Breckenridge, Aspen, Telluride and Durango, along with the Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters in the Pueblo region, are drifting this once-Republican stronghold further into Democratic territory. I'd be very surprised in the national political climate in 2006 compels western Coloradans to trade in moderate Democrat Salazar for Republican Scott Tipton. Dem hold. (+1 Dems)

Colorado, District 4 (Fort Collins, Greeley, Sterling)--Arch-conservative Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave barely held her seat in 2004, even in this staunchly Republican district located in the Plains of eastern Colorado. The district's largest and fastest-growing community is Fort Collins north of the Denver area. It's trending Democrat, but is a long way's from being able to single-handedly decide the outcome in this district. Furthermore, Musgrave's close call in 2004 came in a very Democratic year in her state. I'm not expecting 2006 will be as Democrat-friendly in Colorado in 2006, and thus expect Musgrave to hold her seat. GOP hold. (+1 Dems)

Colorado, District 7 (Lakewood, suburbs west and north of Denver)--This swingiest of swing districts in the Denver suburbs will be vacated by Republican incumbent Bob Beauprez, who is running for Governor. That's important because Beauprez's gubernatorial run could provide GOP coattails in his native district. As an outsider to the region, I know little about the frontrunners for the nomination in the district (Democrat Ed Perlmutter and Republican Rick O'Donnell). It's hard to make a call on this race knowing so little about the candidates, but considering the district voted for John Kerry, I'm inclined to believe they probably want a check on George Bush's power in Congress, so I'm narrowly favoring the Democrats to pick the seat up. (+2 Dems)

Connecticut, District 2 (New London, Norwich, Willimantic)--This eastern Connecticut district is the state's most rural and least affluent. It's also the most Democratic district in the nation held by a Republican in Congress. Republican Rob Simmons has skated by with soft margins of victory for the last three terms, but is facing a rising Democratic tide in his home state where Bush is wildly unpopular and where Democratic incumbent Joe Lieberman is on the ballot this year, poised to win by a huge margin. Simmons' Democratic opponent, Joe Courtney, should be well-funded and positioned as nicely as one can be to defeat a Congressional incumbent. I expect Simmons to go the way of Connie Morella in Maryland four years ago. Dem gain. (+3 Dems)

Connecticut, District 4 (Stamford, Greenwich, Bridgeport)--This extremely affluent suburban district in southwest Connecticut is socially liberal and maintains a significant enough urban Democratic presence to keep moderate Republican incumbent Chris Shays permanently on his toes. In 2004, Shays held off token Democratic challenger Diane Farrell by only four points. Farrell is running again in 2006, this time with a larger warchest and with Shays having a bigger target on his back. As of now, I'm expecting the same trendline that will take down Rob Simmons in CT-02 will also unseat Shays, but it's no means a sure bet at this stage of the race. Dem gain. (+4 Dems)

Florida, District 22 (sections of the Gold Coast in Palm Beach and Broward Counties)--I don't understand the political geography of this district. Considering how overwhelmingly Democrat senior-heavy and heavily Jewish Palm Beach and Broward Counties are in statewide and President elections, I can't understand how Republican Clay Shaw continues winning here. He narrowly avoided defeat in 2000, the year Al Gore lit South Florida on fire, but has since been redistricted into "safer territory" (again, in counties that Gore and Kerry both won by more than 60%, I don't understand how anyplace in them could be safe for Republicans). Whatever the case, Shaw keeps on skating by, but faces a top-tier challenger this year in State Senator Ron Klein. If this were a Presidential election year, I would suggest the coattails would push Klein across the finish line, but with gubernatorial and Senate races in Florida unlikely to generate any serious momentum for the Democratic Party (the Senate race could, but Nelson's just not that popular), I'm leaning towards Shaw hanging on once again. GOP hold. (+4 Dems)

Georgia, District 8 (Macon, Warner Robins)--Conservative Democrat Jim Marshall won in a gerrymandered district in 2002 with a 37% black population. Georgia courts ruled the district lines unconstitutional, so there were redrawn and took away some of Marshall's voter base. Making things worse, former Macon-area Republican Congressman Mac Collins decided to challenge Marshall in the district. The new district has a decidedly white and Republican tilt and Collins' background with area voters look to make Marshall on the short list of vulnerable Democrats this cycle. I'm expecting Collins will beat him. GOP gain. (+3 Dems)

Georgia, District 12 (Augusta, Savannah)--Another district whose 2001 boundaries were declared unconstitutional places another Democratic incumbent in jeopardy. John Barrow narrowly beat Republican incumbent Max Burns in 2004 and now faces Burns in a re-match in a district that does not include the liberal college town of Athens. However, Barrow is trading in Athens for a rural region of eastern Georgia that is heavily black and similarly Democratic, so the geography of his district isn't as perilous for Dems as Marshall's new district. Still, Burns has a deferred incumbency that is likely to make this a very close race. But without George Bush on the ballot, I'm inclined to give Barrow a narrow advantage in holding this seat. It's definitely one to watch closely in the months ahead. Dem hold. (+3 Dems)

Illinois, District 6 (Wheaton, northern DuPage County)--Vacated by Republican institution Henry Hyde, this district in the western suburbs of Chicago used to be one of the most Republican in the nation. Recent trendlines have seriously diluted GOP strength to the point that George Bush barely won the district in 2004 and Democratic challenger Christine Cegelis gave Hyde the best challenge of his career. Cegelis is running again in the open seat, along with paraplegic Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth on the Democratic side. Cegelis' name recognition and Duckworth's incredible personal story would ordinarily be enough to give the Democrats a slight advantage over Republican challenger Peter Rosham, but Illinois' headline race in the 2006 midterms will be a Governor's race where the incumbent Democrat will get smashed in this suburban district, potentially delivering counter-coattails for Cegelis or Duckworth. Still, the prevailing political winds and thirst for change nationally compel me to give both quality Democratic candidates a soft advantage. Dem gain. (+4 Dems)

Illinois, District 8 (Barrington, McHenry, northwestern Chicago exurbs)--Conservative Democrat Melissa Bean snuck past embattled and geriatric Republican incumbent Phil Crane in 2004, a very Democratic year in her state. Unfortunately for her, this wealthy district is very Republican, meaning she'll be walking a political tightrope for as long as she serves as a Democratic Congresswoman. She's angered organized labor by supporting CAFTA, potentially harming her with her Democratic constituency. While I'm not very knowledgeable about her Republican challengers (David McSweeney, Teresa Bartels), I'm compelled to give them the advantage at this stage of the race, particularly since the headliner of the Democratic ticket in Illinois will not be wildly popular Barack Obama as it was in 2004, but embattled Governor Rod Blagojevich, who will probably lose IL-08 by 20 points. With that in mind, I'm predicting Bean narrowly loses her seat. GOP gain. (+3 Dems)

Indiana, District 8 (Evansville, Terre Haute)--Uber-conservative Republican John Hostettler consistently underperforms in his southwest Indiana district, even against marginal, unfunded Democrats. In 2006, Hostettler faces a formidable opponent in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, a socially conservative Democrat who, if early polls are any indication, looks poised to win back a seat for the Dems. Dem gain (+4 Dems)

Indiana, District 9 (Bloomington, New Albany)--In a year where George Bush won Indiana by 21 points, his coattails helped Republican challenger Mike Sodrel defeat southeast Indiana Democrat Baron Hill. This year, Hill's in for a re-match in a year that looks much less friendly for Republicans. This race is a crap shoot at this point, but I'm narrowly leaning towards Hill given this district's heavily Democratic registration advantage. Dem gain (+5 Dems)

Iowa, District 1 (Waterloo, Davenport, Dubuque)--One of the oddest political couples in America in recent years has been conservative Republican Jim Nussle and the populist small farmers and union workers of northeast Iowa. Gore and Kerry both won IA-01, by five and six-point margins, meaning that Democrats have a numerical advantage in regaining this seat now that Nussle is running for Iowa Governor. Neither side will choose a candidate until this spring's primary, so this race is still basically a toss-up. Nonetheless, the political climate and the district's leanings point to a likely Democratic gain. (+6 Dems)

Iowa, District 3 (Des Moines, Ames)--Democrat Leonard Boswell has held this central Iowa swing district for nearly a decade, but has never maintained the kind of grip on it that has allowed the Democrats to completely relax. This year, Boswell faces a higher-profile opponent in State Senator Jeff Lamberti, as well as the question marks surrounding his own health. Boswell has missed several months worth of votes after heart surgery. His spokespeople say he's nearly completed his recovery, but if questions linger about his health six months from now, it could be just enough to convince the voters in the increasingly Republican suburban Des Moines doughnut to replace Boswell with Lamberti. What would have been a second-tier contest is likely to become a first-tier. It all depends on Boswell's health. Assuming it holds up, I predict Boswell will hang on to this seat, but watch it closely. Dem hold (+6 Dems)

Louisiana, District 3 (Houma, New Iberia)--Democrat Charlie Melancon eked out a 50.2-49.8% victory in last year's special election in this conservative southeastern Louisiana district. Since his 2004 election, two neutron bombs were set off in the region, complicating its politics. The first was the signing of the CAFTA agreement, which seriously threatens southern Louisiana's sugar industry, and which Melancon's feverishly opposed. The second blow to SE LA was Hurricane Katrina, which displaced thousands of citizens in the region and delivered another crushing blow to its economy. It's unclear what implications the hurricane and resulting population flux will have on the 2006 elections, but Melancon is credited with solid leadership post-Katrina. Couple that with his defense of the sugar industry against CAFTA and he has some serious advantages in holding this conservative district. Nonetheless, it's unlikely to surprise anyone if Republican challenger Craig Romero is able to take Melancon out given the profile of the district. This is definitely one to keep an eye on, but right now I'm leaning towards Melancon. Dem hold. (+6 Dems)

Minnesota, District 6 (St. Cloud, northern Mpls.-St. Paul suburbs)--With Republican Mark Kennedy running for the Senate, this Republican-leaning exurban district is open in 2006. Normally, this race would be a slam-dunk for any Republican, but Democratic candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg is the Mayor of the swing suburb of Blaine and is running as a pro-life Democrat, potentially diluting some of the advantage the Republicans may have on social wedge issues. Furthermore, the frontrunner on the GOP side is evangelical flamethrower Michele Bachmann, who is probably too conservative for this district. Other potential GOP challengers (Jim Knoblach, Phil Krinkie, Cheri Pierson Yecke) would probably beat Tinklenberg, but Bachmann would probably be considered too conservative by swing voters in places like St. Cloud and Woodbury. If Bachmann is nominated, it's advantage-Tinklenberg. Dem gain. (+7 Dems)

New Mexico, District 1 (Albuquerque)--Republican Heather Wilson has held this seat for several years, despite its Democratic leanings. She's always been able to narrowly hold off challenges from token Democratic opponents. This year, she faces a more spirited challenge from New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Considering that statewide Democratic incumbents Bill Richardson and Jeff Bingaman are expected to win in a walk, I definitely this is the year that Democrats will be able to pick off Heather Wilson. Dem gain (+8 Dems)

New York, District 19 (northern New York City exurbs)--Republican Sue Kelly has easily won previous elections in this wealthy suburban district, which I believe entails the Clinton's new home in Chappaquadick. Kelly has a long list of Democratic primary challengers, which should generate some free media attention for the Democrats and ultimately leave the victor in a good position to take advantage of George Bush's extreme unpopularity and the meltdown of New York's state Republican Party at Sue Kelly's expense. This is sure to be a hard-fought contest and Kelly could still not only win, but win handily, but with Democrats Spitzer and Clinton headlining the ticket, Kelly's challenger will have some serious logistical momentum on his/her side, enough to compel me to lean Democrat for this race. Dem gain (+9 Dems)

New York, District 29 (Elmira, Corning)--This largely rural district in southwest New York is unfriendly territory for Democrats even in strongly Democratic years, but one-term incumbent Republican Randy Kuhl is nonetheless vulnerable based on his relatively soft margin in 2004. In '06, he faces a "Fighting Dem" in pilot and war veteran Eric Massa whose candidacy should generate some buzz and possibly ride the momentum of Spitzer and Clinton across the finish line. This outcome is possible, but pragmatically, this strongly Republican district seems unlikely to trade in a Republican for a Democrat even in the most Democratic year. It's definitely one to watch, but I'm leaning towards Kuhl here. GOP hold (+9 Dems)

North Carolina, District 8 (Kannapolis, sections of Fayetteville)--When I first heard that incumbent Republican Robin Hayes was vulnerable, it surprised me because I thought this district ran completely along the I-85 region between Charlotte and Greensboro, the most Republican part of North Carolina. I didn't realize the district was centered east of that region. While NC-08 does include the very heavily Republican Kannapolis, it also includes Democratic strongholds such as heavily-black Rockingham and Laurinburg, not to mention part of the city of Fayetteville. Hayes was in big trouble after flip-flopping over CAFTA, ultimately voting for it in a district devastated by garment and mill layoffs. "Fighting Democrat" Iraq war veteran Tim Dunn is likely to make a compelling run and could conceivably overtake Hayes, but the presence of the Kannapolis area (where "Democrat" is a dirty word) in this district makes it hard for me to see Dunn prevailing. I'm leaning towards Hayes here, but this is definitely another one that could be surprising. GOP hold. (+9 Dems)

North Carolina, District 11 (Asheville, Waynesville)--Western North Carolina's Smoky Mountain region is typically a Republican stronghold, but was surprisingly soft for Republican candidates in several races in 2004, including incumbent Congressman Charles Taylor. Making things even more interesting this fall is the candidacy of former NFL football quarterback Heath Shuler, whose running on a socially conservative platform and has pulled in some boffo fundraising numbers thus far. It's probably too soon to say how good of a candidate Shuler could be, but early indicators are impressive enough to where I'm giving him the advantage. Dem gain. (+10 Dems)

Ohio, District 6 (Steubenville, Marietta, Athens)--This long narrow district runs along the Ohio River in the southeast corner of the state. Incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland is running for Governor, leaving the seat open and providing Republicans some hope they can pick up the seat. It seems like a tough uphill slog from my vantage point. While its true Bush narrowly won this rural, socially conservative district in 2004, he was the first Republican to do so in decades. This is a working class area with prominent union presence and the liberal college town of Athens. Likely Democratic nominee Charlie Wilson is exactly the sort of Democrat who wins here, and with favorite son Ted Strickland at the top of the state ticket running for Governor and providing coattails, I don't see much opportunity for Republican Chuck Blasdel to pull off an upset. Dem hold. (+10 Dems)

Ohio, District 15 (Columbus)--Not many people seem to agree with me that Republican Deborah Pryce is beatable. Her gerrymandered district, which includes much of the city of Columbus along with a sizeable percentage of its suburbs, seemed Republican-friendly when designed, but an increasing Democratic side in the area pushed John Kerry to within one percentage point of victory last fall. Since then, the Ohio Republican Party has been battered-bloody with corruption and Pryce pulled a scandalous and unpopular flip-flop over CAFTA, ultimately voting for it against the will of the vast majority of economically-depressed Ohioans. Her opponent this fall appears to be Mary Jo Kilroy, who I've heard mostly good things about and who allegedly has pretty strong name recognition in the area. Perhaps I'm way off the beam here, but I'm predicting an upset of which Pryce will be on the losing end. Dem gain. (+11 Dems)

Ohio, District 18 (Chillicothe, Zanesville)--This wildly gerrymandered district in southern and eastern Ohio is home to Public Enemy #1 in the Jack Abramoff scandal, long-time Republican incumbent Bob Ney. Normally, Ney would win this Republican-leaning district by a cozy 2-1 margin, but the scandalous air surrounding him and the anti-majority party climate seems eerily similar to the scenario that took down Democratic power-broker Dan Rostenkowski in 1994 in a northern Chicago district much more Democrat than OH-18 is Republican. And Ney's scandal seems to be far more serious than Rostenkowski's stamp-stealing scandal. Unless Ney is compelled to retire rather than run again in '06, I have a hard time seeing how he holds this seat against Democrat Joe Sulzer, who right now looks to be one of more fortunate Democrats in America. Dem gain. (+12 Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 6 (Reading, northwestern Philadelphia suburbs/exurbs)--Republican Jim Gerlach has won twice by the slimmest of margins in this Democratic-trending suburban district northwest of Philadelphia. Considering the anti-Republican climate heading into 2006, particularly in the Northeast, I suspect Gerlach's hourglass will run out of sand this year against narrowly-defeated 2004 challenger Lois Murphy. This is the kind of race that the Democrats will be extremely disappointed if they don't win. Dem gain. (+13 Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 8 (Bucks County, northern Philly suburbs/exurbs)--Just to the north and east of PA-06 is the demographically similar PA-08, which was open in 2004 and won by Republican Mike Fitzpatrick despite the fact that John Kerry won the Presidential contest. Many political analysts consider Fitzpatrick fairly safe, even against Democratic Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy, but I that Murphy's compelling personal story and the current political mood in the northeast will be enough to narrowly unseat Fitzpatrick. Keep in mind that Democrats are poised to pull in huge numbers in the Governor and Senate race in SE PA. This can only benefit Patrick Murphy's candidacy. Dem gain. (+14 Dems)

Texas, District 17 (Waco, College Station)--Democrat Chet Edwards was the only survivor of the Democrats targeted for defeat by Tom DeLay's ethically bankrupt mid-decade redistricting in 2004. Edwards prevailed for a number of reasons, not the least of which was his fire-breathing arch-conservative opponent who was deemed too right-wing even for Bush's backyard. Edwards is a skilled politician, but this district is so Republican that it's a matter of when, not if, he gets defeated. Luckily for him, 2006 does not appear to be the year that's likely to happen as the GOP has been unable to pull in an opponent deemed capable of taking Edwards out. But like Senator Ben Nelson in Nebraska, no Democrat can ever consider himself safe in this very Republican area. Whoever the GOP runs is almost assured of 45% support. Dem hold. (+14 Dems)

Texas, District 22 (Sugar Land, Galveston)--Tom DeLay may have gerrymandered himself right out of his own seat as the new TX-22 is considerably less Republican than the Harris County-centric district DeLay was accustomed to winning in. It's still strongly Republican, but the embattled DeLay is running 13 points behind a generic Democratic challenger in early polls. But the Dems have more than just a generic challenge to run against him, they have former Congressman Nick Lampson, a casualty of the 2004 DeLay-mander. A good chunk of Lampson's old district is now in TX-22, which gives him a quasi-incumbency benefit. With ethics scandal after ethics scandal serving as a millstone around his neck, things are not looking good at all for DeLay, who only won by 55% in 2004 because of lingering ethics concerns. The only wild card is that DeLay could opt not to run for another term, at which point the Republicans probably have an advantage in holding the seat. Assuming that DeLay does run, however, this should be a Dem gain. (+15 Dems)

Vermont At-large--Vermont's sole Congressman is Independent Bernie Sanders, who is very liberal and caucuses with the Democrats. With Sanders running for the Senate, his seat will be open and very likely to fall officially into the hands of one of the major parties. I don't know who the candidates are at this stage, but I find it very hard to believe that increasingly Democrat Vermont would replace the left-wing Sanders with a Republican. It would be a seismic upset if they voted in a George Bush ally in a state where Bush has a 29% approval rating. Dem gain. (+16 Dems)

Washington, District 8 (Bellevue, Issaquah, eastern Seattle suburbs)--This suburban Seattle district has been trending Democrat for quite some time. Last year, Republican Dave Reichert narrowly won the open seat, but faces a stiff challenge this fall from Microsoft millionaire Darcy Burner. Given recent trendlines and Bush's unpopularity in Washington, I would normally be inclined to tilt this race to Burner, but I think Dino Rossi could play into this race more than Bush does. Washington Republicans are still understandably furious at Rossi having the Governor's mansion taken from him when the third recount showed additional votes for Democrat Christine Gregoire. Rossi won the PR battle and continues to be a sympathetic figure while the state Democratic Party took a hit. Lingering resentment over the gubernatorial race among King County Republicans (most of whom live in WA-08) will probably help Reichert hang onto his seat. GOP hold (+16 Dems)

Wisconsin, District 8 (Green Bay, Appleton)--Republicans have long held an advantage in this northeastern Wisconsin district, but not the kind of advantage that will keep it from being a hard-fought contest in 2006 now that Republican Mark Green is running for Governor. There will be a primary battle on both sides, so the lack of clarity on who the candidates will end up being make this race hard to call. Still, with native son Mark Green headlining the ballot in the gubernatorial race, I have a hard time seeing how the Democrats pull this one out. GOP hold. (+16 Dems)

Now, for a general list of second-tier contests where I expect the incumbent candidate/party will hold the seat, but which could become competitive between now and November 7:

AZ-01 (Flagstaff, Navajo Reservation)--currently held by Republican Rick Renzi
CA-11 (Stockton, Lodi)--currently held by Republican Richard Pombo
CA-26 (northeastern Los Angeles suburbs)--currently held by Republican David Dreier
CA-50 (Imperial Beach, coastal San Diego County)--open seated vacated by Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham
CT-05 (Waterbury, New Britain)--currently held by Republican Nancy Johnson
FL-09 (northern Tampa-St. Pete suburbs)--open seat vacated by Republican Michael Bilirakis
FL-11 (Tampa)--open seat vacated by Democrat Jim Davis
FL-13 (Sarasota, Bradenton)--open seat vacated by Republican Katherine Harris
IL-10 (Waukegan, northeastern Chicago exurbs)--currently held by Republican Mark Kirk
IL-11 (Will County, southern Chicago exurbs)--currently held by Republican Jerry Weller
IN-02 (South Bend, Elkhart)--currently held by Republican Chris Chocola
IN-07 (Indianapolis)--currently held by Democrat Julia Carson
IA-02 (Cedar Rapids, Iowa City)--currently held by Republican Jim Leach
KS-03 (Kansas City, Lawrence)--currently held by Democrat Dennis Moore
KY-03 (Louisville)--currently held by Republican Anne Northup
KY-04 (Covington, Ashland)--currently held by Republican Geoff Davis
LA-02 (New Orleans)--currently held by Democrat William Jefferson
LA-06 (Baton Rouge)--currently held by Republican Richard Baker
LA-07 (Lake Charles, Lafayette)--currently held by Republican Charles Boustany
MI-09 (Oakland County)--currently held by Republican Joseph Knollenberg
MI-11 (Livonia, northwest Detroit suburbs)--currently held by Republican Thaddeus McCotter
MN-01 (Rochester, Mankato)--currently held by Republican Gil Gutknecht
MN-02 (southern Mpls.-St. Paul suburbs)--currently held by Republican John Kline
NE-01 (Lincoln, Norfolk)--currently held by Republican Jeff Fortenberry
NV-02 (Reno, Carson City)--open seat vacated by Republican Jim Gibbons
NH-02 (Nashua, Portsmouth)--currently held by Republican Charles Bass
NY-01 (east Hamptons)--currently held by Democrat Tim Bishop
NY-03 (Nassau County suburbs)--currently held by Republican Peter King
NY-20 (Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls)--currently held by Republican John Sweeney
NY-27 (Buffalo, Jamestown)--currently held by Democrat Brian Higgins
OH-02 (suburban Cincinnati)--currently held by Republican Jean Schmidt
OH-04 (Mansfield, Lima)--open seat vacated by Republican Michael Oxley
OH-13 (Akron, Lorain)--open seat vacated by Democrat Sherrod Brown
OH-14 (eastern Cleveland suburbs, Ashtabula)--currently held by Republican Steve LaTourette
PA-04 (northern and western Pittsburgh suburbs)--currently held by Republican Melissa Hart
PA-07 (southwestern Philadelphia suburbs)--currently held by Republican Curt Weldon
PA-17 (Harrisburg, Lebanon)--currently held by Democrat Tim Holden
SC-05 (Rock Hill, Sumter)--currently held by Democrat John Spratt
SD-AL (Sioux Falls, Rapid City)--currently held by Democrat Stephanie Herseth
TN-04 (McMinnville, Lynchburg)--currently held by Democrat Lincoln Davis
TX-10 (sections of Austin, suburbs)--currently held by Republican Michael McCaul
UT-02 (Salt Lake City, southern suburbs)--currently held by Democrat Jim Matheson
VA-02 (Virginia Beach)--currently held by Republican Thelma Drake
WV-02 (Charleston, Martinsville)--currently held by Republican Shelley Moore Capito

At least for now, my prediction is that the Democrats gain 16 seats, taking back the House by the slimmest margin imagineable. I expect the makeup of the next Congress will be 218 Democrats and 217 Republicans, fueled by an ache in the guts of Americans in red and blue districts alike to usher in some checks and balances on Republican-dominated government. It surprises me that so few analysts are willing to accept the very real prospect of a political tsunami in November 2006, considering the ugly approval ratings for Congress, the wide gap in right track/wrong track numbers and the towering ethics scandals taking their toll on Republican leadership. I'm actually more inclined to believe I seriously lowballed Democratic successes in this fall's House races rather than overstated them. The only wild card is if the criminally incompetent Democratic leadership is able to screw up a sure thing.