Will Gay Marriage Keep Working for the GOP?
A national poll released last week indicated that public opposition to the previous election cycle's biggest wedge issue, gay marriage, is waning. After the Massachusetts Supreme Court legalized gay marriage in 2004, national public sentiment showed opposition to gay marriage running at 64%, and more than a dozen states quickly moved to amend their constitutions permanently prohibiting gay marriage. The issue was credited with aiding-and-abetting in George Bush's re-election and expanding the GOP's Congressional majorities in the 2004 election. It seemed the issue was solved. Americans don't want gay marriage, so we can finally move on to some of the real-world issues bearing down on our society with the subtlety of a falling anvil. Right?
Not just yet apparently. Last week, a new poll released indicating voter opposition to gay marriage had fallen from 64% to only 51%, a bare majority. While I favor the legalization of gay marriage, this is nonetheless incredibly bad news. Proponents of gay marriage will be reinvigorated by these numbers and will again push the issue in places where they believe they can gain some turf beyond Massachusetts. They're certainly entitled to pursue their endgame and I wish them luck, but I shudder at the thought of another election cycle where clueless hicks head to the polls with this issue on their minds. Unfortunately, I have seen enough to be convinced that as long as this issue has even the faintest pulse, there will be a shockingly high number of voters, particularly in the South, who are so thoroughly distracted by the prospect of Adam and Steve exchanging wedding vows that all other social and political issues become instant irrelevant to them.
My home state of Minnesota will be an interesting case study of how the gay marriage issue will impact a proverbial "swing state" in the 2006 election cycle. Every indication is that public sentiment in Minnesota has moved decidedly against the Republican party and its elected chesspieces. Apparently realizing this, Republican leaders are betting the entire farm on baiting the Democrats over a gay marriage ban, specifically forcing a ballot initiative this November for a constitutional prohibition. The logic, obviously, is that having gay marriage on the ballot will bring social conservatives to the polls and help Republicans hold off expected losses in the Legislature and possibly even the U.S. Senate and House races. And thus far at least, the results have been quite satisfying for the GOP. The Democratic Senate Majority Leader made a gaffe in which he put words into the mouths of state Supreme Court justices, and has dominated the headlines for the last two weeks with apologies over the comments. Meanwhile, newspaper headlines throughout the state are splashed with anti-gay marriage rallies that include prominent Republican lawmakers and respected local pastors....and the Minnesota voters are responding in the editorial pages of local newspapers with the same tiresome back-and-forth we heard on the issue in 2004. It sure seems as though the Republicans are winning this battle by keeping as many Minnesotans as possible more worried about gay marriage than petty little matters like the quagmire in Iraq and the deficit-fueled budgetary armageddon we're tossing at future generations like a molotov cocktail.
However, I'm not convinced the issue will yield the political bounty Republicans are expecting it to despite these early indications, at least in Minnesota. It's a tough call whether the gay marriage amendment will make the ballot in the state, but the hourglass is running out of sand. If the amendment makes the ballot, it will most likely pass by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, Minnesota is not like the South, where gay marriage was a top-tier issue for a significant percentage of the population. Even many who agree with the ban and vote accordingly will view the measure as a cynical ploy unworthy of consuming so much time and energy when the republic (and to a lesser extent the state of Minnesota) faces some of its stiffest challenges in recent history. I wouldn't be the least surprised if the GOP scores a hollow victory with passage of the gay marriage ban, but still find themselves on the receiving end of a voter backlash against frivolous political posturing, ultimately losing the statehouse, both houses of the legislature, a U.S. Senate race, one or two U.S. House races and maybe even a couple of constitutional offices. I can dream.....
Not just yet apparently. Last week, a new poll released indicating voter opposition to gay marriage had fallen from 64% to only 51%, a bare majority. While I favor the legalization of gay marriage, this is nonetheless incredibly bad news. Proponents of gay marriage will be reinvigorated by these numbers and will again push the issue in places where they believe they can gain some turf beyond Massachusetts. They're certainly entitled to pursue their endgame and I wish them luck, but I shudder at the thought of another election cycle where clueless hicks head to the polls with this issue on their minds. Unfortunately, I have seen enough to be convinced that as long as this issue has even the faintest pulse, there will be a shockingly high number of voters, particularly in the South, who are so thoroughly distracted by the prospect of Adam and Steve exchanging wedding vows that all other social and political issues become instant irrelevant to them.
My home state of Minnesota will be an interesting case study of how the gay marriage issue will impact a proverbial "swing state" in the 2006 election cycle. Every indication is that public sentiment in Minnesota has moved decidedly against the Republican party and its elected chesspieces. Apparently realizing this, Republican leaders are betting the entire farm on baiting the Democrats over a gay marriage ban, specifically forcing a ballot initiative this November for a constitutional prohibition. The logic, obviously, is that having gay marriage on the ballot will bring social conservatives to the polls and help Republicans hold off expected losses in the Legislature and possibly even the U.S. Senate and House races. And thus far at least, the results have been quite satisfying for the GOP. The Democratic Senate Majority Leader made a gaffe in which he put words into the mouths of state Supreme Court justices, and has dominated the headlines for the last two weeks with apologies over the comments. Meanwhile, newspaper headlines throughout the state are splashed with anti-gay marriage rallies that include prominent Republican lawmakers and respected local pastors....and the Minnesota voters are responding in the editorial pages of local newspapers with the same tiresome back-and-forth we heard on the issue in 2004. It sure seems as though the Republicans are winning this battle by keeping as many Minnesotans as possible more worried about gay marriage than petty little matters like the quagmire in Iraq and the deficit-fueled budgetary armageddon we're tossing at future generations like a molotov cocktail.
However, I'm not convinced the issue will yield the political bounty Republicans are expecting it to despite these early indications, at least in Minnesota. It's a tough call whether the gay marriage amendment will make the ballot in the state, but the hourglass is running out of sand. If the amendment makes the ballot, it will most likely pass by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, Minnesota is not like the South, where gay marriage was a top-tier issue for a significant percentage of the population. Even many who agree with the ban and vote accordingly will view the measure as a cynical ploy unworthy of consuming so much time and energy when the republic (and to a lesser extent the state of Minnesota) faces some of its stiffest challenges in recent history. I wouldn't be the least surprised if the GOP scores a hollow victory with passage of the gay marriage ban, but still find themselves on the receiving end of a voter backlash against frivolous political posturing, ultimately losing the statehouse, both houses of the legislature, a U.S. Senate race, one or two U.S. House races and maybe even a couple of constitutional offices. I can dream.....
posted by Mark at 8:57 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home