Statehouse Race Evaluations

Well I'm finally getting around to making my predictions for this fall's gubernatorial races. After my move to Iowa, my momentum and priorities kind of drifted for awhile. I'm close to where I can say I'm back on track now though. Recent developments in certain races should make my job a little easier than it would have been last month anyway. Without further adieu, here goes:

Alabama--Incumbent Republican Bob Riley is taking hits from both sides. His first obstacle is a primary challenge from right-wing judge Roy Moore, who will get the backing from the furthest reaches of the evangelical movement in the Republican Party. Whether that demographic constitutes a majority of Alabama's Republican voters remains to be seen. My guess is that Riley will prevail in the primary, and go on to face his Democratic opponent in the general election. Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley would seem to be the frontrunner on the Democratic side, for former Governor Don Siegelman is also putting up a concerted effort to return to the statehouse he very narrowly lost to Riley in 2002. Given the legal troubles Siegelman has faced since his defeat, his comeback seems unlikely, and the establishment seems to be putting its money on Baxley, who they expect might be able to win over enough women voters to swing the election. It seems like a longshot in the bright red state of Alabama. Riley got into trouble early in his term when he endorsed a package of tax increases that failed miserably when put to voters. Recent public opinion polls indicate voters are no longer very upset with him, however. Early polls for hypothetical matchups show Riley with a comfortable lead against all three potential opponents, and in Republican Alabama, I expect any sort of momentum the Democrats may be seeing nationally will probably provoke the opposite response by voters who don't want Dems in charge of government. I think Riley's re-election is a fairly safe bet.

Alaska--It's not even clear at this time whether unpopular incumbent Republican Frank Murkowski will seek a second term. If he does, he's in for a battle, especially if popular former Governor Tony Knowles runs for encore, as he is indicating he may. On the other hand, the conventional wisdom was that unqualified Lisa Murkowski would be penalized for the nepotism that landed her her father's Senate seat in 2004, but the (R) next to her name helped her cross the finish line in Alaska, even against Knowles. My guess is that if this ends up being a Knowles versus Murkowski grudge match, Knowles will win. If Murkowski decides against a second term, however, the GOP candidate will naturally take back the advantage simply because of Alaska's partisan advantage.


Arizona--As is the case with an unusually high number of strongly partisan states, Republican Arizona has a popular Democratic Governor whose re-election in November is almost assured. Janet Napolitano dodged the only bullet she'll likely need to when Phoenix-area Congressman J.D. Hayworth decided against challenging her. Now Napolitano seems poised to face off against token GOP opposition, none of which have come within striking distance of her in early polls. The only question mark is whether Napolitano's pending landslide victory has any influence downballot, including the hotly-contested Senate race. My guess it's unlikely Napolitano helps Jim Pederson to a victory, but it's a possibility.

Arkansas--An intriguing matchup is shaping up in Democratic Arkansas. Popular Republican incumbent Mike Huckabee is retiring, and probably pursuing a Presidential run. Top-tier candidates from both parties are seeking to fill Huckabee's shoes. Democratic Attorney General Mike Beebe is likely to face former Republican Congressman Asa Hutchinson. Beebe has a number of advantages at the starting line. The Democratic Party, while weaker than it was in previous generations, still has a double-digit affiliation advantage in Arkansas. Beebe has been elected statewide while Hutchinson has only been elected in northwest Arkansas' conservative 3rd Congressional district....the only part of Arkansas this is reliably Republican. And the personal indiscretions that led Hutchinson's brother Tim to a landslide defeat in the 2002 Senate race has the potential to drag down to Asa as well. On the other hand, Huckabee will be a useful ally for Hutchinson on the campaign trail. I'm inclined to lean towards Beebe in this race, but it should be one of the more exciting gubernatorial races with a potential photo-finish.

California--A couple of months ago, it looked like Arnold Schwarzenegger's political obituary had already been written. His November ballot initiatives failed miserably with voters and his poll numbers plummeted into the high 30's. Arnold has been racing back to the center ever since, and the decisions seem to have met with the approval of at least a few of his critics. Nonetheless, Schwarzenegger has to be viewed as the underdog in Democratic California as early polls indicate that he's trailing potential Democratic challengers with very low name recognition, such as state Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly. Schwarzenegger's celebrity (and the free publicity that will come with it) can't be underestimated here, but it's pretty clear that Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein is gonna be California's biggest draw this November as opposed to Schwarzenegger. The partisan tide seems to favor either Angelides or Westly, but they're untested commodities who will need to run a solid campaign to topple the superstar. The odds are with the Dems here, but perhaps not as strongly as they appeared to be three months ago.

Colorado--With incumbent Republican Bill Owens retiring, the Colorado gubernatorial race is wide open. The frontrunners for their party's nomination are Democrat Bill Ritter and suburban Denver Congressman Bob Beauprez for the Republicans. On paper, Beauprez would seem to have an advantage here. Republicans have a comfortable affiliation advantage in Colorado, and Beauprez is twice victorious in a swing Congressional district in Denver's northern and western suburbs, which is likely to put some votes in Beauprez's column that would ordinarily go Democratic. Nonetheless, the only early poll released publicly showed Ritter with a modest lead. What gives? A rising Democratic tide in Colorado that started in 2004 and appears to be continuing, and a growing perception that Governor Owens' Taxpayer Bill of Rights was ineffective and ushered in some serious financial problems for the states over the last few years. A month ago, I would have given Beauprez the edge here, but the early poll lead for Ritter, despite a favorable demographic situation for Beauprez, has led me to lean this race ever-so-slightly to Ritter. It'll definitely be one to watch in the months ahead.

Connecticut--As of early 2006, it's likely that Connecticut Democrats are wishing they hadn't so aggressively pursued criminal charges against former Republican Governor John Rowland. While Rowland was taken down, his replacement, then-Lieutenant Governor Jodi Rell, has become the most popular Governor in America. Rell's re-election is virtually assured at this point, and her success this November could have downballot consequences for Democrats seeking to unseat Republican incumbents Rob Simmons and Chris Shays.

Florida--In another gubernatorial race likely to become competitive, the departure of Jeb Bush from the Tallahassee statehouse has left both parties another open seat to gun for. Frontrunners include Tampa-area Democratic Congressman Jim Davis and Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist. Davis has his work cut out for him in increasingly Republican Florida, but early polls show him within striking distance and in reasonably comfortable standing considering he's barely known outside Tampa while Crist has already won statewide. Nonetheless, I continue to lean towards Crist in this race as he will be a fitting successor for the conservative policies of Jeb Bush, who still enjoys high approval ratings even after his criticism for the Terri Schiavo incident.

Georgia--With each passing election cycle, it gets harder to imagine a scenario where the Democratic Party can become competitive again in Georgia. The substantial growth of upper-income Republicans in suburban Atlanta is adding an economic conservatism to the state's long-standing social conservatism. Likely to continue benefitting from this in 2006 is GOP Governor Sonny Purdue, who scored one of the biggest upset victories in the nation four years ago and has maintained high approval ratings ever since. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cathy Cox is perhaps better positioned than anyone to beat Purdue, but early polls show her lagging way behind. Purdue should be a cinch for a second term.

Hawaii--The Democrats have an extensive bench in Hawaii, one of their strongest states, but nobody seemed to want take on Linda Lingle, the popular Republican incumbent, this November. Lingle was Hawaii's first Republican Governor, and has apparently impressed islanders given his strong approval ratings. I believe she has a Democratic opponent at this point, but he's gonna be hard-pressed to defeat Lingle despite the partisan advantage in Hawaii. Unlike 2002 when Lingle won by the skin of her teeth, she'll probably win by double digits this time.

Idaho--Perhaps the safest incumbent Governor in the nation is Republican Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho, whose victory is as close to a sure thing as there is.

Illinois--Another race that should be exciting. Even in increasingly Democratic Illinois, incumbent Rod Blagojevich appears to be underwhelming his constituents as his approval ratings are firmly in the danger zone for an incumbent. A number of Republicans are challenging Blagojevich, but state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka is the challenger best poised to unseat Blago. Illinois Republicans are probably wise to this fact, which leads me to believe that the moderate Topinka is the frontrunner for the nomination despite being to the left of party activists. If Topinka is the nominee, I can't see Blagojevich winning. If any of the other Republicans running manage to win in the primary, Blago probably has a soft advantage, but I'd give Blagojevich similar odds to Schwarzenegger in California at pulling off a second term. In other words, not very good.

Iowa--Yet another race that looks to be fun. Incumbent Democrat Tom Vilsack is throwing in the towel after two terms, leaving a boatload of wannabes waiting to fill his shoes. The Democrats have a particularly long list of candidates seeking their party's nomination, but Secretary of State Chet Culver has to be considered the frontrunner early on. For the Republicans, 1st District Congressman Jim Nussle is the likely candidate to be on the ballot in November. Iowa is one of the swingiest states in the nation, and a closely-divided electorate is likely to surface once again in this race, but Nussle has a demographic advantage at the starting gate against any of the Democratic challengers. For more than a decade now, Nussle has been peeling off support from Democratic voters in his Dem-leaning Congressional district in northeast Iowa despite his unapologetically conservative voting record.....voters who are likely to follow him in a statewide election. And if Democrats are losing votes in working-class cities like Waterloo and Dubuque to Nussle, winning statewide becomes very difficult. With that said, Chet Culver's political base is in central Iowa (Des Moines, Ames) where he could conceivably make up ground lost to Nussle in eastern Iowa. Still, Culver has to pitch a near-perfect game to win with Nussle invading Democratic turf. My money's on Nussle.

Kansas--Despite being the poster-child for red-state America, Kansas has a Democratic Governor who is quite popular. Kathleen Sebelius looks poised to handily win a second term this November. Barring a huge misstep or a Republican challenger really inspiring the faithful, Sebelius will defy the odds once again.

Maine--This race wasn't even on my radar screen until about a month ago when I discovered just how vulnerable Democratic incumbent John Baldacci is. Early polls show him trailing his likely Republican rival, State Senator Chandler Woodcock. Working to Baldacci's advantage, however, is the close partisan divide in both houses of Maine's legislature. Democratic and center-left independent voters in this increasingly Democratic state may be scared into re-electing Baldacci if the prospect of Republicans controlling all three Houses of Maine's state government seems imminent. Ultimately, I'm giving Baldacci the edge by a whisker.

Maryland--Republican Bob Ehrlich pulled off an upset in the very Democratic state of Maryland four years ago and became their first Republican Governor in decades. He's governed from the right in this left-leaning state and while early polls are conflicted, most people consider Ehrlich a longshot for a second term, particularly up against his well-spoken likely Democratic rival, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich has the advantage of incumbency this time around, but is likely to find O'Malley to be a much more capable opponent that 2002's Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. With the Democratic Party looking to have the momentum this election cycle, O'Malley definitely looks to have the advantage in this race.

Massachusetts--Even though it's the most Democratic state in the nation, Massachusetts has been electing Republican Governors for the last 16 years. The current occupier of the Massachusetts statehouse, Mitt Romney, happens to be the most conservative of the elected Republicans, and his approval ratings have suffered for it. Romney has Presidential ambitions, so officially opted not to run for a second term to pursue a White House run in '08, but truth be told, his prospects for four more years in Boston were pretty bleak. Further complicating matters is that Romney's poking fun at the liberalism of his home state on the early campaign trail, and likely sabotaging the ability of his Lieutenant Governor and 2006 GOP nominee Kerry Healey to win. Democratic Attorney General Tom Reilly is the favorite for the Dem nomination, and early polls show him with a commanding lead over Healey. Barring a serious meltdown in the Reilly campaign, it looks as though that the hourglass is about to run out of sand for the Massachusetts GOP.

Michigan--In spite of a rough state economy battered-bloody by the floundering Detroit auto industry, voters do not seem poised to take their frustration out on Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm. While she's falling short of the safety zone for an incumbent seeking re-election, her Republican opponent, Amway founder Dick DeVros, is a longshot at this point to overcome her. Of course, it's early, and if DeVros runs a solid campaign while the bad news keeps rolling in for Granholm, an upset is not out of the question.

Minnesota--A couple of months ago, I was of the mind that Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty was marginally vulnerable to three of the four Democrats attempting to challenge him in November. A number of events in the last 60 days have made me reconsider that assessment. First of all, Minnesota's finances finally appear to be in the black, giving the Dems a weaker hand to go after Pawlenty on poor fiscal management. Secondly, the Democrats perceived frontrunner, Attorney General Mike Hatch, no longer has the appearance of a shoo-in for the nomination, and the potential boon his campaign could have received if he had been able to recruit Patty Wetterling to be his running mate fell flat when Wetterling turned him down in favor of pursuing a second run for the 6th Congressional district where she was narrowly defeated in 2004. And perhaps the worst news for Democrats in this race is the entrance of Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson into the fray. Hutchinson is articulate and left-of-center, and his presence in televised gubernatorial debates is certain to win over some converts to his side...mostly from would-be DFL voters. With Hutchinson in the race, I cannot imagine a scenario where Pawlenty is defeated. It's possible, but I suspect Pawlenty is sleeping much easier at night now than he was in November.

Nebraska--In this burgundy red state, it's only fitting that the real battle for the 2006 Governor's race is essentially between two Republicans. Current acting Governor Dave Heineman is being challenged in the primary by Congressman (and former Nebraska Cornhuskers Head Coach) Tom Osborne. Even though Nebraskans generally approve of Heineman's job performance, their sentimental attachment to local "rock star" Osborne is likely to prevail in the GOP primary. If Osborne gets past that, beating Democrat David Hahn in the generally election should be a cinch. Or if Heineman surprises everyone and hangs on in the primary, he'll easily beat Hahn in the general election as well.

Nevada--Candidates with similar names but different political philosophies and parties appear poised to face off in the open Nevada gubernatorial race. Republican Congressman Jim Gibbons hopes to hold the torch for his party currently in the hands of term-limited incumbent Kenny Guinn. Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson is the frontrunner for the Democratic side. If this matchup comes to fruition, it'll be interesting to see how voters respond to impossibly similar candidate names. Whatever the case, this race should prove to be a close one with Nevada's partisan allegiance becoming more evenly divided all the time. I'm still leaning towards Gibbons (as in the Republican) at this point because of slightly stronger name recognition, but this race is very much up-for-grabs.

New Hampshire--The once-Republican stronghold of New Hampshire is becoming less so, but it still has a solidly GOP legislature. Countering that influence is popular Democratic Governor John Lynch who should be a slam-dunk for re-election. Lynch is so popular in the Granite State that the Dems may be entertaining the notion of recruiting him to challenge John Sununu for the 2008 Senate race.

New Mexico--Democratic incumbent Bill Richardson should be a cinch for a second term, which should position him well for his bid for the Presidential nomination in 2008.

New York--Bulldog-ish Democratic Attorney General Elliot Spitzer decided in favor of a career upgrade, and his wild popularity in New York should make that feat easy. He has a commanding lead over every possible opponent pollsters could dream up as potential rivals. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld could make a credible run for the Republican side, but will still probably fall far short of Spitzer in November.

Ohio--It's looking like the matchup for Ohio's open gubernatorial race will be Southern Ohio's Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland and African-American GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. Strickland has the edge here for a variety of reasons. First of all, the Ohio Republican Party is in shambles, primarily because of corruption scandals that has left current GOP Governor Bob Taft with the lowest approval rating in the nation. Secondly, Strickland is very popular in a region of Ohio that has been trending Republican in recent elections. His ability to win votes in southern Ohio means Blackwell will have to outperform the Republican average in other regions of the state, which could be a tall order. And lastly, Blackwell is considered to be a much more polarizing and partisan figure than Strickland. If the matchup indeed turns out to be Strickland vs. Blackwell, I'm pretty confident Strickland will prevail.

Oklahoma--Incumbent Brad Henry is a conservative Democrat in a bright red state. He's fairly popular, but Republican challenger Ernest Istook, an Oklahoma City Congressman, is likely to wage a pretty strong challenge. One mistake and Henry is toast in right-wing Oklahoma. I'm still predicting we'll narrowly prevail, but with the lowest possible confidence.

Oregon--There are a number of Democrats and Republicans seeking to fill the Oregon statehouse, including the less-than-wildly-popular incumbent Democrat Ted Kulongoski. I must admit I don't know the specifics of this race or who the frontrunner likely is on the Republican side. Oregon is less of a Democratic stronghold than its "Left Coast" neighbors, so the undeniable weakness of Kulongoski leads me to expect a Republican pickoff in this race.

Pennsylvania--This race has heated up considerably in the last couple weeks, thanks to some good timing by former Pittsburgh Steelers icon and Super Bowl MVP Lynn Swann, who formally announced his challenge to Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell the week before the Pittsburgh Steelers headed to another Super Bowl. Rendell's 20-point lead from early polls disappeared almost overnight and it became clear that Rendell is gonna have to work for re-election. Whether Swann has staying power will be seen in the months ahead. He'll certainly take away Democratic votes in the Pittsburgh area, meaning there's zero margin for error for Rendell in southeastern Pennsylvania. My gut tells me Rendell will still pull this out, but it's likely to be much closer than originally anticipated.

Rhode Island--Uber-Democratic Rhode Island is another deep blue state with a Republican Governor. In this case, incumbent Donald Carcieri who is pursuing another term, with Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty as his likely Democratic opponent. Despite swimming against a substantial partisan tide, Carcieri is the favorite here as RI voters seem to like the balance he provides to the overwhelmingly Democratic State Legislature. I'd be surprised if Carcieri was unseated.

South Carolina--Popular Republican Governor Mark Sanford should have no problem getting a second term.

South Dakota--The Republican Party's decades-long streak of dominating the South Dakota statehouse will continue with the re-election of popular incumbent Governor Mike Rounds.

Tennessee--Conservative Democrat Phil Breseden's victory in the 2002 gubernatorial race proves that certain kinds of Democrats can still win in SOME Southern states if the stars are aligned right. While Breseden's voting record is hardly gonna win him much praise among the national Democratic Party, it will probably assure him of a second term as Governor of Tennessee.

Texas--A very complex multi-player race is unfolding in Texas, with incumbent Republican Rick Perry assured of at least three opponents. Democrat Chris Bell would seem to have even less chance in Texas than the usual Democratic given that the non-Republican vote is likely to be split with eccentric left-of-center Independent Kinky Friedman. Independent Carole Strayhorn is likely to pick off votes from both Perry and Bell, but I'd be surprised if she prevailed. Even in the crowded field, the knee-jerk Republicanism of Texas will almost assuredly keep Perry at the top of the pack.

Vermont--Even in liberal Vermont, Republican Governor Jim Douglas is very popular. An early poll showed him smashing his likely Democratic opponent. He should win re-election handily.

Wisconsin--Democratic Governor Jim Doyle isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, but with Republicans firmly in control of both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature, voters probably will opt for a second Doyle term over the all-Republican government alternative. Green Bay-area GOP Congressman Mark Green should make this race interesting and could end up pulling off an upset, but my money's on Doyle hanging on by a modest if underwhelming margin.

Wyoming--Despite being one of the most Republican states in the union, Wyoming has a Democratic Governor in Dave Freudenthal who is very popular and poised to handily win a second term this fall, barring a major upset.