The Fight For the Senate: Updated Thoughts
Last January, I outlined my thoughts on the 2006 Senate races in their early stages. Quite a bit has changed in some of these races while very little has changed in others. Six months after those initial race profiles, here are my thoughts on where they stand now....
Arizona--The Democrats still seem to think former Democratic Party Chair Jim Pederson has a chance against two-term incumbent Jon Kyl. Despite Kyl's lukewarm approval ratings, Pederson's gonna be an almost impossibly tough sell, particularly in Arizona where the issue of the day will be immigration and where Pederson's support of McCain-Kennedy is not likely to be a winner. Even a sweeping Democratic landslide is unlikely to put Pederson into the U.S. Senate and I would recommend the Democrats shift priorities to softer targets soon.
California--Dianne Feinstein should score a 2-1 victory over challenger Dick Mountjoy. My guess is Feinstein will get more votes than any other Senate candidate in history, beating colleague Barbara Boxer's record of 6.9 million set in 2004.
Connecticut--What a sad story here. A race that was expected to be one of the easiest Democratic victories in the country is now a total mess. Incumbent Joe Lieberman has so thoroughly pissed off anti-war voters with his steadfast support for Bush's policy in Iraq that he's generated an articulate, well-funded, and insurgent primary opponent in Ned Lamont, a Greenwich businessman who has earned the adulation of the left-wing blogosphere. If Lamont wins the August 8 primary, which looks more likely by the day, Lieberman will run as an independent in November, where he will by a landslide in the general election against both Lamont and insignificant Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger. Thankfully, Lieberman still plans to caucus with the Democrats if he is indeed forced to run as an independent. This is gonna be such an ugly distraction for the Democrats, particularly if Lieberman loses, which will set the media into a firestorm of informing moderate voters "how far left the Democratic Party" has become and its "intolerance of dissent" that will surely sound alarm bells to conservative-leaning voters nationwide who may otherwise be considering voting Democrat this year. Lieberman is far from my favorite Democrat, but it's nonetheless infuriating to me that so much leftist energy is being put into defeating OTHER DEMOCRATS rather than Republicans, and the only possible thing that could be gained by this ploy is that if Lamont is on the ballot in November, a heightened turnout of anti-war voters could help Democratic candidates in three hotly-contested House races also running on an anti-war platform. Whatever happens, it's almost a certainty that Lieberman will be re-elected to a fourth term in the U.S. Senate, whether as a Democrat or an Independent, given his broad support outside of official Democratic Party circles. But my what a mess the Dems could create for themselves in the process.
Delaware--Moderate Democrat Tom Carper should still cruise to re-election against whoever's running against him.
Florida--Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson could have just well won the lottery when no other Republican candidate was willing to challenge Katherine Harris for the Republican nomination, despite wishful thinking by Republicans everywhere that somebody (anybody!) would run against Harris, whom they rightly deemed unelectable. Short on campaign funds and suffering from misstep after misstep, Harris consistently trails Nelson in every poll by a 2-1 margin or better. I suspect the final result won't be that much of a landslide, but don't be surprised if Nelson, considered vulnerable just last year, wins with 60% or better.
Hawaii--Another race I rated as a slam-dunk for Democratic incumbent Daniel Akaka six months ago has become interesting. Concerned with the aging Senate delegation in his party, conservative Democratic Congressman Ed Case has decided to challenge liberal incumbent, 81-year-old Daniel Akaka, for the nomination. Hawaiians seems to really respect tradition and seniority, which gives Akaka a slight edge, but Akaka is a less-than-dynamic speaker and Senator who lacks the political impulse of the younger Case, who makes a strong case (no pun intended) for his candidacy given that Hawaii's Republican Governor would appoint a Republican to the seat if one of the geriatric Senators were to pass on. With that said, I'm still pulling for Akaka simply because he's much better on the issues than Case. Akaka's health has not been a concern thus far, so I'm willing to take the gamble. The good news is that whether Akaka or Case wins the primary in early September, this seat is almost certain to remain in Democratic hands.
Indiana--Republican Richard Lugar will have no problem winning another term. The potential good news is that Lugar's assured landslide could keep Republican voters at home, helping three Democrats in competitive House races in the state.
Maine--Liberal Republican Olympia Snowe is popular with voters of all affiliations. She'll win a third term handily.
Maryland--This race is far from over as there's still a top-tier Democratic primary coming up in September, pitting white Baltimore-area Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin against black former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume. Cardin has long been perceived as the frontrunner, but a new poll put that into question. Given the high number of blacks who vote in Maryland's Democratic primary, a Mfume upset is a real possibility. Certainly, African-American Republican challenger Michael Steele would love to see a contest with Mfume, who suffers from trust issues based on a couple previous scandals. If Cardin wins the primary, he wins the general election handily. If it's Mfume vs. Steele, the race is a total toss-up. I'll continue to put my money on Cardin, and even give Mfume a slight edge against the very conservative Steele in this likely Democratic year where I simply can't see Maryland electing a George Bush ally.
Massachusetts--Ted Kennedy in a landslide.
Michigan--It's looking more and more likely that potentially-vulnerable Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow will have an easy victory as her three potential GOP opponents are far from first-tier. The best challenge would undoubtedly from Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, but I'd be surprised if he got within 10 points of Stabenow in a year like 2006.
Minnesota--For a race repeatedly hyped as a marquee Senate contest, the grudge match between Amy Klobuchar and Mark Kennedy for Democrat Mark Dayton's open seat sure has been a snoozer thus far. Wellstone and Coleman were at each other's throats by March of 2002. What gives? Klobuchar holds small but steady leads in every poll taken on the race, but still needs to raise her name ID beyond Hennepin County. I continue to give her the edge, but unless some advertisements start appearing and raise voter interest in this contest, I fear low turnout will benefit Kennedy, whose rural and exurban base is more likely to show up at the polls in a low turnout race.
Mississippi--With Trent Lott long ago committed to seeking another Senate term, the longshot hopes of a victory by former Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore are but a quaint and distant memory. Lott wins another term handily.
Missouri--Despite early Republican dismissals of the prospect of GOP incumbent Jim Talent being vulnerable, several months worth of polls confirm that he is indeed so, with the most recent giving Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill a six-point lead. With the business community dismayed over Talent's opposition to a stem cell research bill on the state ballot this fall, Talent threatens to further fracture his base. Meanwhile, McCaskill's "rural strategy" seems to be working in winning over unlikely fans. Last year at this time, it's doubtful too many people expected the Missouri Senate races to have any potential for a Democratic takeover, but I'm increasingly optimistic that will indeed be the case. The wild cards are abortion and immigration, where the Democratic Party position is at odds with the majority of Missourians. If those issues continue to dominate the headlines in the fall, Talent could sneak back in.
Montana—Last month’s primary victory by Jon Tester over scandal-tainted John Morrison was a net positive in the Democrats’ efforts to topple the even more scandal-tainted Conrad Burns, the GOP’s second most vulnerable incumbent in the Senate. With Tester leading in the early polls and Burns with approval ratings less than 40%, this is a seat the Democrats should win….and if they don’t, November 7, 2006, won’t be any better of an evening for them than November 2, 2004, or November 5, 2002.
Nebraska—Six months following my original assessment that Ben Nelson (or any candidate in Nebraska running as a Democrat) will have a tough re-election fight, nothing has changed to reverse that assessment. After Zell Miller’s departure in 2004, Nelson is easily the Senate’s most conservative Democrat and it has earned him approval ratings in his conservative state of more than 70% according to most polls. With that said, he’ll still have to deal with a national Democratic party that is radioactive in Nebraska, and a self-funding millionaire challenger in Pete Ricketts. Early polls show Nelson with leads approaching 20%, but that’s been in the case in previous elections featuring Nelson as well, and he’s ending up either losing them or narrowly winning them. I’m still betting on Nelson to pull this out, but by a margin of five points or less that will surprise most analysts.
Nevada—With last spring’s announcement by Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman that he wouldn’t be challenging Republican Senate incumbent John Ensign, the prospects of this seat remaining in GOP hands grew much stronger. Jack Carter, son of former President Jimmy Carter, is waging a spirited campaign against Ensign and it’s still possible that he could prevail considering Ensign’s approval ratings are hovering just barely above the 50% threshold that typically qualifies a candidate as vulnerable. Nonetheless, place your Vegas bets in favor of the incumbent in this race.
New Jersey—This is a very messy race that is assuredly giving Democrats the willies. Former Democratic Senator Jon Corzine gave up his Senate seat last fall to become the state’s Governor. Sincere in his efforts to fix New Jersey’s systemic budgetary problems, he’s forced the state into an ugly government shutdown that has resulted in the temporary closing of Atlantic City casinos. This is relevant to the Senate race because, as Governor, Corzine got to appoint his successor, Congressman Robert Menendez to fill out the remainder of his Senate term. That term expires this fall and Menendez could suffer from his connection to the increasingly unpopular Corzine. Adding to Menendez’ headache is a top-tier GOP challenger in young State Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9-11 Commission Co-Chair Tom Kean, Sr. Yet with all of these strikes against him, a favorable Democratic climate still leaves Menendez the leader in most polls and the perceived frontrunner by most analysts, simply because the least popular politician in New Jersey is George Bush, and New Jersey voters will be extremely reluctant to nominate a Bush ally to the U.S. Senate in 2006. Beyond that, the consensus opinion is that Menendez bested Kean in an early debate and that Kean is probably overmatched by the veteran Menendez.
New Mexico—Finally, an easy call. Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman handily wins another term.
New York—Another easy call. Hillary Clinton beats whichever fourth-rate Republican challenger is nominated to challenge her by a 2-1 margin.
North Dakota—Democrat Kent Conrad long ago dodged the bullet of a faceoff with popular GOP Governor John Hoeven. With Hoeven out of the picture, the Democrats’ Congressional dominance of North Dakota is certain to continue with a landslide re-election of the populist Conrad.
Ohio—Since my last report, a lot of unfavorable events have occurred for the Democrats in their effort to beat incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. An awkward primary battle between Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown and firebrand Iraq veteran Paul Hackett ended with Hackett angrily withdrawing before the primary vote, understandably outraged at the Democratic Party originally persuading to enter the Senate race, then pleading with him to bow out as soon as Brown declared his candidacy. The liberal Akron-area Congressman Brown is now the Democratic candidate, and even though center-right incumbent DeWine is still vulnerable, I’m less than optimistic about Brown’s chances, particularly with the milquetoast campaign he’s run so far. Wearing his liberalism as a badge of honor, Brown may be overreading the anti-GOP mood in Ohio, where Bush has become very unpopular and where scandals with the state GOP bode poorly for the Republicans’ prospects in Ohio this fall. Brown seems like an easy target for the demagoguery that is inevitably coming his way, and DeWine’s recently politically-motivated tack to the center will make him seem like much less scary to swing voters. My fear is that Brown will not catch on outside the Democratic bastion of northeastern Ohio and will suffer the same narrow defeat that John Kerry did in the state. At this point, I’m betting in favor of a third-term for DeWine and a hold for Republicans.
Pennsylvania—In the last few years, Republican incumbent Rick Santorum has made himself the poster-child for Republican hard-right wingnuttia, which was apparently not a politically smart course for a Senator in a blue state. Even up against a lackluster opponent (but one with high name recognition) in State Treasurer Bob Casey, Santorum finds himself running behind by an average of 15 points in most polls. Most analysts figure the race will tighten, and I agree given the charisma gap favoring Santorum which will be much more visible as the campaign really heats up. Still, Santorum is playing an entirely defensive game in a state where there appears to be a ferocious anti-GOP and anti-incumbent sentiment. That bodes very poorly for Santorum and makes his re-election prospects seem all but dead.
Rhode Island—In another of the nation’s most interesting and hotly-contested Senate races, liberal Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee continues to find himself in an unpleasant dual election fight against his own party and the Democrats. In September, Chafee faces a tough primary against a “real Republican”, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Originally, I believed this was the best chance of picking off Chafee, but it now seems as though Rhode Island Republicans will be likely to err on the side of pragmatism, holding their nose and voting for Chafee realizing he’s the only Republican in the state capable of winning a Senate race this year in this deeply blue state. Laffey didn’t help his cause with the recent embarrassing gaffe of publicly cheering on the deaths of the centrist old-guard who control the Rhode Island GOP establishment and favor Chafee. But even if Chafee prevails against Laffey, his prospects for holding onto his Senate seat are probably no better than 50-50 as Democratic Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse is putting up a strong challenge and has fought his way to a statistical tie with Chafee in recent polls. If Chafee is victorious in the September primary, which I now expect him to be, he’ll likely get a bounce heading into the general election campaign. But I’m not confident that bounce will last into November, where fierce anti-Republican sentiment (along with a lack of participation by conservative voters disgusted by Chafee’s liberalism) could very easily be the end of Lincoln Chafee. My money is on a narrow victory for Whitehouse.
Tennessee—With Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring to pursue his ill-fated Presidential bid, the race to fill his Senate seat is just as wide open today as it was six months ago and will continue to be until the August 3 primary. Three Republicans, each with their own strengths and liabilities, will face off against conservative black Democrat Harold Ford. Even though I don’t particularly like Ford, he’s run a strong campaign thus far, choosing his battles carefully and wisely in a state where he’s running against a ferocious Republican tide. Unfortunately for him, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker appears to be the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, and he will be a tough candidate. Arch-conservative former Congressman Ed Bryant would probably be Ford’s most beatable opponent, but he may end up splitting the far-right vote with former House colleague Van Hilleary in the primary. There’s no ideal scenario for Ford, who is running against almost impossible odds, and I still suspect he will lose no matter who prevails in the GOP primary. It may not even be close in the end. Still, this race intrigues me because of its interesting geographical demographics and the fact that it represents such an extreme longshot for a Democratic victory, but one in which polls repeatedly reinforce Ford’s continued status as a contender.
Texas—When Republican incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison opted for a third Senate term rather than a gubernatorial run, she removed all doubt that there may be a competitive race in Texas. Hutchison will easily take down third-tier Democratic challenger Barbara Radnofsky.
Utah—Another safe bet. Republican institution Orrin Hatch will make mince meat out of Democratic challenger Pete Ashdown in the nation’s most Republican state.
Vermont—Even though this is technically an open seat, polls confirm that Independent socialist (literally) Bernie Sanders is all but assured of a landslide victory as he transitions for the House to the Senate. Sanders will not only caucus with the Democrats (as did retiring Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords), but he will be the nation’s most progressive Senator upon election.
Virginia—What a difference six months made. It looked like GOP incumbent and 2008 Presidential prospect George Allen was a shoo-in for a second term this year…..until James Webb happened. Webb is a former Republican and Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. Disgusted with the GOP’s increasingly right-wing domestic agenda and the decision to go to war with Iraq, this Vietnam War veteran switched parties a few years back and is now challenging a surprisingly vulnerable Allen this fall. Allen has compounded his problems by suggesting he’s “bored” with the Senate and is more interested in moving forward with his Presidential ambitions. All that said, Webb is still a longshot. Since his primary win last month, most polls show him a good 10 points behind. That’s far from insurmountable for an insurgent campaign, however, and Webb’s likely appeal with military voters in the vote-rich Tidewater area (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News) could spell big problems for Allen come election day. I actually consider this seat more likely to swing Democratic than Tennessee, but ultimately expect both will stay in GOP hands. However, if Allen can’t do any better than 55% in his re-election bid, he’ll lose some serious momentum in his efforts to win the ’08 Presidential nomination.
Washington—Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell, who beat three-term GOP Senator Slade Gorton by a whisker in 2000, is not looking to have a slam-dunk in her effort to secure a second term. Liberal voters in the Seattle area, of which there are many, are lukewarm on her moderate voting record and her unwillingness to admit her vote for the Iraq War Resolution was a mistake. Meanwhile, Washington Republicans are still smarting from what they believe was a stolen gubernatorial election by Democrat Christine Gregoire in 2004. Add to all of this self-financing millionaire SafeCo CEO Mike McGavick as the Republican candidate and you have a race on your hands. Polls show Cantwell with a consistent but shrinking lead as McGavick saturates the television airwaves with largely unanswered attack ads. While this is likely to be a close race, I’m still betting on Cantwell. The likelihood of Washington, a solid blue state, electing a Bush ally to Senate this year in not very high.
West Virginia—The man who is now officially the longest-serving Senator in U.S. history, Robert Byrd, appears to have dodged a number of bullets in his quest to extend that record in a state where the political tide is turning against his party. The first came last fall when GOP Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito decided against challenging him. The next came with party’s nomination of John Raese for the GOP, a country club Republican running the exact wrong campaign for a blue-collar state like West Virginia. As Raese spouts off ideological vomit from the Cato Institute regarding the need to abolish, rather than raise, the minimum wage, he gives away votes that a culture war conservative may have been able to get. Even with an apparently lackluster opponent, I still expect Byrd to be re-elected with the narrowest margin he’s seen in decades, perhaps ever. He may struggle to get 60%....and if he doesn’t, it’s a terrible sign for long-term Democratic prospects in West Virginia, a state which leads the nation in the number of “registered Democrats”.
Wisconsin—With former Wisconsin Governor and national Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson choosing not to challenge Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl, the quiet but popular Kohl will have no trouble at all winning another term.
Wyoming—I don’t even know the fall guy that Wyoming Democrats are planning to run against Republican incumbent Craig Thomas, but I know it won’t matter in this very Republican state as Thomas will win another term by a landslide.
So there are my updates. The Democrats’ prospects have improved in some states (MT, VA, WV) since my last reporting, but have diminished in others (OH, WA) while internal party conflicts complicate matters in two other states (CT, HA). All that said, my current predictions would mean a gain of four Democratic Senate seats this fall, two short of what they need to win a majority. In January 2007, the makeup of the Senate will be 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 1 Independent caucusing with the Dems if my predictions pan out.
Look my for updated thoughts on battleground House races and gubernatorial races in the days and weeks ahead.
Arizona--The Democrats still seem to think former Democratic Party Chair Jim Pederson has a chance against two-term incumbent Jon Kyl. Despite Kyl's lukewarm approval ratings, Pederson's gonna be an almost impossibly tough sell, particularly in Arizona where the issue of the day will be immigration and where Pederson's support of McCain-Kennedy is not likely to be a winner. Even a sweeping Democratic landslide is unlikely to put Pederson into the U.S. Senate and I would recommend the Democrats shift priorities to softer targets soon.
California--Dianne Feinstein should score a 2-1 victory over challenger Dick Mountjoy. My guess is Feinstein will get more votes than any other Senate candidate in history, beating colleague Barbara Boxer's record of 6.9 million set in 2004.
Connecticut--What a sad story here. A race that was expected to be one of the easiest Democratic victories in the country is now a total mess. Incumbent Joe Lieberman has so thoroughly pissed off anti-war voters with his steadfast support for Bush's policy in Iraq that he's generated an articulate, well-funded, and insurgent primary opponent in Ned Lamont, a Greenwich businessman who has earned the adulation of the left-wing blogosphere. If Lamont wins the August 8 primary, which looks more likely by the day, Lieberman will run as an independent in November, where he will by a landslide in the general election against both Lamont and insignificant Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger. Thankfully, Lieberman still plans to caucus with the Democrats if he is indeed forced to run as an independent. This is gonna be such an ugly distraction for the Democrats, particularly if Lieberman loses, which will set the media into a firestorm of informing moderate voters "how far left the Democratic Party" has become and its "intolerance of dissent" that will surely sound alarm bells to conservative-leaning voters nationwide who may otherwise be considering voting Democrat this year. Lieberman is far from my favorite Democrat, but it's nonetheless infuriating to me that so much leftist energy is being put into defeating OTHER DEMOCRATS rather than Republicans, and the only possible thing that could be gained by this ploy is that if Lamont is on the ballot in November, a heightened turnout of anti-war voters could help Democratic candidates in three hotly-contested House races also running on an anti-war platform. Whatever happens, it's almost a certainty that Lieberman will be re-elected to a fourth term in the U.S. Senate, whether as a Democrat or an Independent, given his broad support outside of official Democratic Party circles. But my what a mess the Dems could create for themselves in the process.
Delaware--Moderate Democrat Tom Carper should still cruise to re-election against whoever's running against him.
Florida--Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson could have just well won the lottery when no other Republican candidate was willing to challenge Katherine Harris for the Republican nomination, despite wishful thinking by Republicans everywhere that somebody (anybody!) would run against Harris, whom they rightly deemed unelectable. Short on campaign funds and suffering from misstep after misstep, Harris consistently trails Nelson in every poll by a 2-1 margin or better. I suspect the final result won't be that much of a landslide, but don't be surprised if Nelson, considered vulnerable just last year, wins with 60% or better.
Hawaii--Another race I rated as a slam-dunk for Democratic incumbent Daniel Akaka six months ago has become interesting. Concerned with the aging Senate delegation in his party, conservative Democratic Congressman Ed Case has decided to challenge liberal incumbent, 81-year-old Daniel Akaka, for the nomination. Hawaiians seems to really respect tradition and seniority, which gives Akaka a slight edge, but Akaka is a less-than-dynamic speaker and Senator who lacks the political impulse of the younger Case, who makes a strong case (no pun intended) for his candidacy given that Hawaii's Republican Governor would appoint a Republican to the seat if one of the geriatric Senators were to pass on. With that said, I'm still pulling for Akaka simply because he's much better on the issues than Case. Akaka's health has not been a concern thus far, so I'm willing to take the gamble. The good news is that whether Akaka or Case wins the primary in early September, this seat is almost certain to remain in Democratic hands.
Indiana--Republican Richard Lugar will have no problem winning another term. The potential good news is that Lugar's assured landslide could keep Republican voters at home, helping three Democrats in competitive House races in the state.
Maine--Liberal Republican Olympia Snowe is popular with voters of all affiliations. She'll win a third term handily.
Maryland--This race is far from over as there's still a top-tier Democratic primary coming up in September, pitting white Baltimore-area Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin against black former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume. Cardin has long been perceived as the frontrunner, but a new poll put that into question. Given the high number of blacks who vote in Maryland's Democratic primary, a Mfume upset is a real possibility. Certainly, African-American Republican challenger Michael Steele would love to see a contest with Mfume, who suffers from trust issues based on a couple previous scandals. If Cardin wins the primary, he wins the general election handily. If it's Mfume vs. Steele, the race is a total toss-up. I'll continue to put my money on Cardin, and even give Mfume a slight edge against the very conservative Steele in this likely Democratic year where I simply can't see Maryland electing a George Bush ally.
Massachusetts--Ted Kennedy in a landslide.
Michigan--It's looking more and more likely that potentially-vulnerable Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow will have an easy victory as her three potential GOP opponents are far from first-tier. The best challenge would undoubtedly from Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, but I'd be surprised if he got within 10 points of Stabenow in a year like 2006.
Minnesota--For a race repeatedly hyped as a marquee Senate contest, the grudge match between Amy Klobuchar and Mark Kennedy for Democrat Mark Dayton's open seat sure has been a snoozer thus far. Wellstone and Coleman were at each other's throats by March of 2002. What gives? Klobuchar holds small but steady leads in every poll taken on the race, but still needs to raise her name ID beyond Hennepin County. I continue to give her the edge, but unless some advertisements start appearing and raise voter interest in this contest, I fear low turnout will benefit Kennedy, whose rural and exurban base is more likely to show up at the polls in a low turnout race.
Mississippi--With Trent Lott long ago committed to seeking another Senate term, the longshot hopes of a victory by former Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore are but a quaint and distant memory. Lott wins another term handily.
Missouri--Despite early Republican dismissals of the prospect of GOP incumbent Jim Talent being vulnerable, several months worth of polls confirm that he is indeed so, with the most recent giving Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill a six-point lead. With the business community dismayed over Talent's opposition to a stem cell research bill on the state ballot this fall, Talent threatens to further fracture his base. Meanwhile, McCaskill's "rural strategy" seems to be working in winning over unlikely fans. Last year at this time, it's doubtful too many people expected the Missouri Senate races to have any potential for a Democratic takeover, but I'm increasingly optimistic that will indeed be the case. The wild cards are abortion and immigration, where the Democratic Party position is at odds with the majority of Missourians. If those issues continue to dominate the headlines in the fall, Talent could sneak back in.
Montana—Last month’s primary victory by Jon Tester over scandal-tainted John Morrison was a net positive in the Democrats’ efforts to topple the even more scandal-tainted Conrad Burns, the GOP’s second most vulnerable incumbent in the Senate. With Tester leading in the early polls and Burns with approval ratings less than 40%, this is a seat the Democrats should win….and if they don’t, November 7, 2006, won’t be any better of an evening for them than November 2, 2004, or November 5, 2002.
Nebraska—Six months following my original assessment that Ben Nelson (or any candidate in Nebraska running as a Democrat) will have a tough re-election fight, nothing has changed to reverse that assessment. After Zell Miller’s departure in 2004, Nelson is easily the Senate’s most conservative Democrat and it has earned him approval ratings in his conservative state of more than 70% according to most polls. With that said, he’ll still have to deal with a national Democratic party that is radioactive in Nebraska, and a self-funding millionaire challenger in Pete Ricketts. Early polls show Nelson with leads approaching 20%, but that’s been in the case in previous elections featuring Nelson as well, and he’s ending up either losing them or narrowly winning them. I’m still betting on Nelson to pull this out, but by a margin of five points or less that will surprise most analysts.
Nevada—With last spring’s announcement by Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman that he wouldn’t be challenging Republican Senate incumbent John Ensign, the prospects of this seat remaining in GOP hands grew much stronger. Jack Carter, son of former President Jimmy Carter, is waging a spirited campaign against Ensign and it’s still possible that he could prevail considering Ensign’s approval ratings are hovering just barely above the 50% threshold that typically qualifies a candidate as vulnerable. Nonetheless, place your Vegas bets in favor of the incumbent in this race.
New Jersey—This is a very messy race that is assuredly giving Democrats the willies. Former Democratic Senator Jon Corzine gave up his Senate seat last fall to become the state’s Governor. Sincere in his efforts to fix New Jersey’s systemic budgetary problems, he’s forced the state into an ugly government shutdown that has resulted in the temporary closing of Atlantic City casinos. This is relevant to the Senate race because, as Governor, Corzine got to appoint his successor, Congressman Robert Menendez to fill out the remainder of his Senate term. That term expires this fall and Menendez could suffer from his connection to the increasingly unpopular Corzine. Adding to Menendez’ headache is a top-tier GOP challenger in young State Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9-11 Commission Co-Chair Tom Kean, Sr. Yet with all of these strikes against him, a favorable Democratic climate still leaves Menendez the leader in most polls and the perceived frontrunner by most analysts, simply because the least popular politician in New Jersey is George Bush, and New Jersey voters will be extremely reluctant to nominate a Bush ally to the U.S. Senate in 2006. Beyond that, the consensus opinion is that Menendez bested Kean in an early debate and that Kean is probably overmatched by the veteran Menendez.
New Mexico—Finally, an easy call. Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman handily wins another term.
New York—Another easy call. Hillary Clinton beats whichever fourth-rate Republican challenger is nominated to challenge her by a 2-1 margin.
North Dakota—Democrat Kent Conrad long ago dodged the bullet of a faceoff with popular GOP Governor John Hoeven. With Hoeven out of the picture, the Democrats’ Congressional dominance of North Dakota is certain to continue with a landslide re-election of the populist Conrad.
Ohio—Since my last report, a lot of unfavorable events have occurred for the Democrats in their effort to beat incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. An awkward primary battle between Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown and firebrand Iraq veteran Paul Hackett ended with Hackett angrily withdrawing before the primary vote, understandably outraged at the Democratic Party originally persuading to enter the Senate race, then pleading with him to bow out as soon as Brown declared his candidacy. The liberal Akron-area Congressman Brown is now the Democratic candidate, and even though center-right incumbent DeWine is still vulnerable, I’m less than optimistic about Brown’s chances, particularly with the milquetoast campaign he’s run so far. Wearing his liberalism as a badge of honor, Brown may be overreading the anti-GOP mood in Ohio, where Bush has become very unpopular and where scandals with the state GOP bode poorly for the Republicans’ prospects in Ohio this fall. Brown seems like an easy target for the demagoguery that is inevitably coming his way, and DeWine’s recently politically-motivated tack to the center will make him seem like much less scary to swing voters. My fear is that Brown will not catch on outside the Democratic bastion of northeastern Ohio and will suffer the same narrow defeat that John Kerry did in the state. At this point, I’m betting in favor of a third-term for DeWine and a hold for Republicans.
Pennsylvania—In the last few years, Republican incumbent Rick Santorum has made himself the poster-child for Republican hard-right wingnuttia, which was apparently not a politically smart course for a Senator in a blue state. Even up against a lackluster opponent (but one with high name recognition) in State Treasurer Bob Casey, Santorum finds himself running behind by an average of 15 points in most polls. Most analysts figure the race will tighten, and I agree given the charisma gap favoring Santorum which will be much more visible as the campaign really heats up. Still, Santorum is playing an entirely defensive game in a state where there appears to be a ferocious anti-GOP and anti-incumbent sentiment. That bodes very poorly for Santorum and makes his re-election prospects seem all but dead.
Rhode Island—In another of the nation’s most interesting and hotly-contested Senate races, liberal Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee continues to find himself in an unpleasant dual election fight against his own party and the Democrats. In September, Chafee faces a tough primary against a “real Republican”, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Originally, I believed this was the best chance of picking off Chafee, but it now seems as though Rhode Island Republicans will be likely to err on the side of pragmatism, holding their nose and voting for Chafee realizing he’s the only Republican in the state capable of winning a Senate race this year in this deeply blue state. Laffey didn’t help his cause with the recent embarrassing gaffe of publicly cheering on the deaths of the centrist old-guard who control the Rhode Island GOP establishment and favor Chafee. But even if Chafee prevails against Laffey, his prospects for holding onto his Senate seat are probably no better than 50-50 as Democratic Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse is putting up a strong challenge and has fought his way to a statistical tie with Chafee in recent polls. If Chafee is victorious in the September primary, which I now expect him to be, he’ll likely get a bounce heading into the general election campaign. But I’m not confident that bounce will last into November, where fierce anti-Republican sentiment (along with a lack of participation by conservative voters disgusted by Chafee’s liberalism) could very easily be the end of Lincoln Chafee. My money is on a narrow victory for Whitehouse.
Tennessee—With Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring to pursue his ill-fated Presidential bid, the race to fill his Senate seat is just as wide open today as it was six months ago and will continue to be until the August 3 primary. Three Republicans, each with their own strengths and liabilities, will face off against conservative black Democrat Harold Ford. Even though I don’t particularly like Ford, he’s run a strong campaign thus far, choosing his battles carefully and wisely in a state where he’s running against a ferocious Republican tide. Unfortunately for him, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker appears to be the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, and he will be a tough candidate. Arch-conservative former Congressman Ed Bryant would probably be Ford’s most beatable opponent, but he may end up splitting the far-right vote with former House colleague Van Hilleary in the primary. There’s no ideal scenario for Ford, who is running against almost impossible odds, and I still suspect he will lose no matter who prevails in the GOP primary. It may not even be close in the end. Still, this race intrigues me because of its interesting geographical demographics and the fact that it represents such an extreme longshot for a Democratic victory, but one in which polls repeatedly reinforce Ford’s continued status as a contender.
Texas—When Republican incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison opted for a third Senate term rather than a gubernatorial run, she removed all doubt that there may be a competitive race in Texas. Hutchison will easily take down third-tier Democratic challenger Barbara Radnofsky.
Utah—Another safe bet. Republican institution Orrin Hatch will make mince meat out of Democratic challenger Pete Ashdown in the nation’s most Republican state.
Vermont—Even though this is technically an open seat, polls confirm that Independent socialist (literally) Bernie Sanders is all but assured of a landslide victory as he transitions for the House to the Senate. Sanders will not only caucus with the Democrats (as did retiring Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords), but he will be the nation’s most progressive Senator upon election.
Virginia—What a difference six months made. It looked like GOP incumbent and 2008 Presidential prospect George Allen was a shoo-in for a second term this year…..until James Webb happened. Webb is a former Republican and Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. Disgusted with the GOP’s increasingly right-wing domestic agenda and the decision to go to war with Iraq, this Vietnam War veteran switched parties a few years back and is now challenging a surprisingly vulnerable Allen this fall. Allen has compounded his problems by suggesting he’s “bored” with the Senate and is more interested in moving forward with his Presidential ambitions. All that said, Webb is still a longshot. Since his primary win last month, most polls show him a good 10 points behind. That’s far from insurmountable for an insurgent campaign, however, and Webb’s likely appeal with military voters in the vote-rich Tidewater area (Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Newport News) could spell big problems for Allen come election day. I actually consider this seat more likely to swing Democratic than Tennessee, but ultimately expect both will stay in GOP hands. However, if Allen can’t do any better than 55% in his re-election bid, he’ll lose some serious momentum in his efforts to win the ’08 Presidential nomination.
Washington—Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell, who beat three-term GOP Senator Slade Gorton by a whisker in 2000, is not looking to have a slam-dunk in her effort to secure a second term. Liberal voters in the Seattle area, of which there are many, are lukewarm on her moderate voting record and her unwillingness to admit her vote for the Iraq War Resolution was a mistake. Meanwhile, Washington Republicans are still smarting from what they believe was a stolen gubernatorial election by Democrat Christine Gregoire in 2004. Add to all of this self-financing millionaire SafeCo CEO Mike McGavick as the Republican candidate and you have a race on your hands. Polls show Cantwell with a consistent but shrinking lead as McGavick saturates the television airwaves with largely unanswered attack ads. While this is likely to be a close race, I’m still betting on Cantwell. The likelihood of Washington, a solid blue state, electing a Bush ally to Senate this year in not very high.
West Virginia—The man who is now officially the longest-serving Senator in U.S. history, Robert Byrd, appears to have dodged a number of bullets in his quest to extend that record in a state where the political tide is turning against his party. The first came last fall when GOP Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito decided against challenging him. The next came with party’s nomination of John Raese for the GOP, a country club Republican running the exact wrong campaign for a blue-collar state like West Virginia. As Raese spouts off ideological vomit from the Cato Institute regarding the need to abolish, rather than raise, the minimum wage, he gives away votes that a culture war conservative may have been able to get. Even with an apparently lackluster opponent, I still expect Byrd to be re-elected with the narrowest margin he’s seen in decades, perhaps ever. He may struggle to get 60%....and if he doesn’t, it’s a terrible sign for long-term Democratic prospects in West Virginia, a state which leads the nation in the number of “registered Democrats”.
Wisconsin—With former Wisconsin Governor and national Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson choosing not to challenge Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl, the quiet but popular Kohl will have no trouble at all winning another term.
Wyoming—I don’t even know the fall guy that Wyoming Democrats are planning to run against Republican incumbent Craig Thomas, but I know it won’t matter in this very Republican state as Thomas will win another term by a landslide.
So there are my updates. The Democrats’ prospects have improved in some states (MT, VA, WV) since my last reporting, but have diminished in others (OH, WA) while internal party conflicts complicate matters in two other states (CT, HA). All that said, my current predictions would mean a gain of four Democratic Senate seats this fall, two short of what they need to win a majority. In January 2007, the makeup of the Senate will be 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 1 Independent caucusing with the Dems if my predictions pan out.
Look my for updated thoughts on battleground House races and gubernatorial races in the days and weeks ahead.
posted by Mark at 4:52 PM
3 Comments:
I am gauging the governor and Senate races with formulae, because I think they are better as I can make reasonable, objective predictions without my rose (I mean teal) colored glasses. Interestingly, my formulae point towards a 50-49-1 GOP Senate; the Dems holding all their seats and beating 5 Republicans (Santorum, Burns, Talent, Chafee, and DeWine). Of course anything can happen and some of these races could change hands, but as of now, my formulae have the Dems gaining 5. My intuition tells me that the Dems will likely win Montana and Pennsylvania, and will possibly win Missouri and Rhode Island (even if Chafee wins the primary). My Ohio formula has Brown besting DeWine by a scant 1-point margin, which is mostly helped by a Survey USA poll that had Brown over DeWine by 9. I think it is extremely unlikely that Brown will win by that much (if at all), but I am not writing him off yet. (And I too was hoping for a Hackett-DeWine race.) We shall see...
As for Ben Nelson, I don't think he is vulnerable; my formula has him winning by 16%. We've had a discussion on Tom's blog about the Senate (mostly on Washington) and one commenter agreed with me that the partisan leaning of a state is usually not the best way to gauge a race. Nelson is an established conservative (probably ironically more so than Hagel) and he has the "I" next to his name now. I do not expect him to win by the same margin as his approvals, but he will win comfortably.
Ditto for Byrd. While he will not win by the same margin that he did in 2000, he will still win by a comfortable margin (my formula has him winning by 27%). West Virginia may vote Republican for president now, but I suspect that Gore and Kerry were not the "right" kinds of Democrats to win there. If Warner or Clark win the nomination they could carry the state in 2008. Hillary, of course, likely will meet the same fate as the last 2 Dem prez candidates. I guess we just need to run more populist Dems to win there and elsewhere.
My formulae, surprisingly, have Ford still in the "competitive" zone against all three Republicans with his best showing ironically under Corker, where Corker wins by an extremely feeble 0.06%. I guess the polls bear out the possibility of the wingnuts staying home on Election Day should it be a Corker-Ford matchup. The odds are certainly against Ford, but he is not yet out of contention at this point. Plus the nasty primary that may happen can't hurt Ford either.
And finally, I became more optimistic about our prospects in Virginia after Webb won the primary. Though Webb is a longshot at this point, Allen is likely sweating a bit more now over this one. If Allen wins by less than 10 (or if hell freezes over and he loses) then I think all that matters is who the Dems choose in 2008 for us to win.
My current formulae on the competitive races have the following margins:
Maryland: Cardin over Steele by 14% or Mfume over Steele by 5% (my money is on Cardin)
Minnesota: Klobuchar over Kennedy by 2%
Missouri: McCaskill over Talent by 1%
Montana: Tester over Burns by 4%
New Jersey: Menendez over Kean by 5%
Ohio: Brown over DeWine by 1%
Pennsylvania: Casey over Santorum by 13%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse over Chafee by 1%, or Whitehouse over Laffey by 27%
Virginia: Allen over Webb by 14%
Washington: Cantwell over McGavick by 6%
Here is my list of all the Senate races grouped by party and competitiveness (with the margin included in the states that have already had their primaries).
http://californianintexas.blogspot.com/2006/01/nationwide-outlook-senate.html
Here are the Senate formulae of the states that have not yet had their primaries. These will not be official until after the primaries.
http://californianintexas.blogspot.com/2006/06/formula-predictions-for-pr_115120401723651353.html
I have similar pages for the governor races, and I too think that the once-thought-impossible scenario of Arnold coming back to make the race close and possibly win is now "possible". My formula does not yet bear that out, though (Phil by <3%); I will have to wait and see Arnold's new approvals on Survey USA plus a few more polls to corroborate the 44-37 Arnold poll from PPIC. Plus the SCLM's obsession over Arnold can't help Phil's cause.
sara, I appreciate your use of a formula and recognize it may well yield more accurate predictions than my off-the-cuff predictions do come November 7. Gut instinct works best for me as I can better determine the intangibles of a given race and take into account where momentum is likely to be late in the game when all the dastardly tactics have been employed on the opposition. I will be making one more set of official predictions in the Senate, gubernatorial and House races in October, a couple of weeks before the election.
As for your specific projections, the Nebraska race is tough to call. Now that Ben Nelson is an incumbent with high approval ratings, perhaps the partisan tide of Nebraska will not result in the same election night plunges in support that he experienced in 1996 and 2000. I wouldn't write off Ricketts though, as he is a well-funded Republican in one of the nation's most Republican states. If he runs a strong campaign, I suspect the race will be close. Lastly in regards to Nebraska, I doubt the voting records would confirm your suspicion that Nelson is more conservative than Hagel (with the war in Iraq being the one issue where Nelson probably is to Hagel's right). The long-standing joke about moderate-talking Hagel is that he "talks like Jesse Jackson but votes like Jesse Helms."
As for West Virginia, don't forget that Strom Thurmond won by his softest margin ever in 1996 because age became an issue (he was 94 at the time). Alot of Byrd's voters from years past are likely to do the same this year. If he faced a competent opponent, then I suspect he'd have a helluva battle. But since he's facing John Raese, he should win by at least 15 points. Presidentially, I'm not convinced that Clark, Warner, or Edwards will have any better luck in avoid the GOP's culture war demagoguery than Al Gore or John Kerry did. Hopefully, you're right, but I suspect West Virginia is gone in the foreseeable future.
I suspect your formula regarding Corker vs. Ford in Tennessee is outdated since there has not been a poll in Tennessee since Corker's high-profile ad blitz began. I'm frightened to see what the next Corker vs. Ford hypothetical matchup. I'm not optimistic about the premise that the wingnuts will stay home if Corker is the nominee....not with all the fiercely anti-Ford propaganda that we can be assured will be pounded into the heads of evangelicals in the weeks before the election. I maintain that Ford's best chance is facing Ed Bryant in November, although even that will be a struggle.
I'll offer my thoughts on gubernatorial races later this week most likely. Thanks for the links to your Senate predictions. I believe I've seen them before, but I'll take a look at them right now to compare notes and methodology. It'll be interesting to see who's closer to right on November 8.
What's the link to Tom's Election Predictions site again? I've lost contact with that board and given that Scott's site now appears to be forbidding commentary, it'd be nice to have a venue to discuss these races again.
Except my updated House predictions on Tuesday.
I understand your thoughts and I am not ruling out your predictions happening. I just prefer formulae because my gut predictions tend to be made with "teal-colored" glasses. And as a scientist I love numbers anyway. ;)
And thanks for the heads-up on TN and WV. Until I see some more polls I will keep the formulae as is for TN. A lot of new bloggers I met at Tom's site are close with me on some races including Tennessee. I hope some more polls come out rather than being wasted on Florida and New York and such. And now that I think about it, I too hope Byrd wins by a smaller margin than before (perhaps 15%) so he can see from the voters that his time will be up in 2012.
Most of the "left-wing" bloggers commenting on Tom's site agree with me on who we should run for president in 2008 (definitely not Hillary; definitely Richardson or Warner with Lincoln on the VP slot).
Tom's site: http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com
One blogger James (who calls himself a conservative Democrat) has his own formula that includes "feeling" factors. We will compare our formula predictions and it will be fun to see who comes closest. James' formulae for VA and NJ gov last year were surprisingly close so we shall see.
James' site: http://politicaljunkiestlar.blogspot.com
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