2008 Senate Races at a Glance
I haven't been following the pending Senate matchups of 2008 very closely in the last few months, but the conventional wisdom is that Democrats are poised to make modest-to-substantial gains with few if any losses. It's far too early to tell if that will be the case, but I'm skeptical that it will be the Democratic bonanza currently predicted. True, I didn't believe the Dems were gonna pick up six Senate seats last fall either, but the logistics of 2006 (a midterm election year which many Republican voters sat out) helped significantly in securing the narrow Democratic margins in a number of red-state Senate contests. The higher-turnout Presidential contest of 2008 is likely to be a different ballgame entirely, particularly if Hillary Clinton is the nominee and generating ugly counter-coattails in most states.
Here are my general thoughts on the 2008 races, state by state.....
Alabama--Conservative Republican Jeff Sessions is up for re-election and would seem to be a shoo-in. There's a push for some statewide elected officer (Agriculture Secretary I believe) named Ron Sparks to hop in the race on the Democratic side, but I expect that some kid would shoot an 1,100-pound wild pig in the Alabama woods before a Democrat gets elected to a federal office in Alabama. Okay, bad example....but Sessions should still cruise to the finish line.
Alaska--There's some rumors of long-standing Republican curmudgeon Ted Stevens being emboiled in a mini-scandal, but unless he's either indicted or dead, Stevens will win by his usual 80%+ margin.
Arkansas--Conservative Democrat Mark Pryor is probably gonna win re-election, and may not even be battered bloody by the prospect of a Hillary candidacy given Hillary's Arkansas roots. The only caveat would be the prospect of former Republican Governor Mike Huckabee abandoning his Presidential bid and running against Pryor for the open Senate race. Huckabee has expressed no interest in doing so, but if he did, would give Pryor a run for his money.
Colorado--One of the Democrats best pick-up opportunities is Colorado, where incumbent Republican Wayne Allard is retiring. Popular Democratic Congressman Mark Udall is the likely nominee on the donk side, while a number of prominent Republicans could end up throwing their hats in the ring. If I had to put money on it at this stage, I'd bet Udall continues the Democratic Party's momentum in Colorado and pick up this seat, but as with all open seats, there's no way of knowing which direction things will go.
Delaware--Will Joe Biden retire from the Senate after his latest bid for the Presidency inevitably fails? I actually think he will, setting himself up for a Cabinet position in a would-be Democratic administration. Even without Biden on the ticket, you have to like the Democrats' odds at holding the Delaware Senate seat in 2008.
Georgia--The only Democrat who could win federal office in Georgia these days is Zell Miller, and given that nobody in the Democratic Party has any interest in bringing the deranged Miller back to the Senate, Republican Saxby Chambliss should score a safe double-digit re-election margin next year.
Idaho--Unless he retires, Republican Larry Craig will be re-elected. If he does retire, another Republican will follow in his footsteps. Take it to the bank.
Illinois--Despite a rhetorical blunder a couple of years ago, Democrat Dick Durbin is virtually assured of re-election in 2008.
Iowa--Given his penchant for over-the-top rhetoric in a culturally conservative state, Democrat Tom Harkin can never be completely counted upon for victory, but is nonetheless greatly favored in 2008 against any Republican that may choose to challenge him, particularly with Harkin poised to deliver pork by the bucket full to Iowa farmers as the chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee working on the upcoming farm bill.
Kansas--Republican Pat Roberts will be re-elected by 2-1 or better.
Kentucky--Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will be re-elected by 2-1 or better.
Louisiana--Despite the GOP's failure to secure a top-tier challenger to two-term Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, I still can't imagine a scenario where Landrieu gets re-elected given the changed demographics of post-Katrina Louisiana (fewer blacks) during a Presidential election year where any of the major Democratic candidates (Hillary, Obama, Edwards) will be about as popular as diarrhea in Louisiana. Place your bets on the Republicans picking up this seat.
Maine--Popular Republican moderate Susan Collins is being challenged by Democratic House member Tom Allen. Early polls show Collins leading 2-1, and while the outcome is not likely to be that lopsided, look for Collins to hang on by a comfortable margin.
Massachusetts--Since I haven't heard otherwise, I'll operate under the assumption that John Kerry is planning to run for another term in the Senate. Whether he does or doesn't, the Massachusetts Senate seat will remain in Democratic hands.
Michigan--Long-time Democratic incumbent Carl Levin is high-profile enough to overpower any Republican rivals, or at least he should be in economically volatile Michigan where voters are likely to be unpredictable.
Minnesota--Republican Norm Coleman is on the short list of most vulnerable incumbents, but he's a skilled politician who knows exactly what to do to win support among the suburban moderates needed to win in Minnesota. If Coleman faces off against Al Franken, it'll be a blow out in favor of Coleman. If Mike Ciresi gets the Democratic nomination, Coleman will win by a more modest margin.
Mississippi--Conventional wisdom is that geriatric Republican Thad Cochran plans to run for re-election. If he does, Election Night 2008 will be another coronation for him. If he doesn't, there's zero chance a Democrat wins a Mississippi Senate race....including former Attorney General Mike Moore who wouldn't get within seven points of a Republican in MS with Hillary or Obama at the top of the ticket.
Montana--It certainly is likely that long-time incumbent Democrat Max Baucus will be re-elected, but in a Presidential election year in Montana, Baucus could conceivably be taken down by a capable Republican challenger.
Nebraska--Unless he runs for President third-party with Mike Bloomberg, Chuck Hagel will be re-elected to the U.S. Senate for Nebraska. If Hagel doesn't run for Senate re-election, another Republican will win the seat.
New Hampshire--Tough call on this one. One-term GOP incumbent John Sununu is definitely vulnerable, but until I know the significance of his future Democratic challenger, I have to give Sununu a slight edge.
New Jersey--Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg is a very old man, but nonetheless seems poised to run for another term in the Senate next year. Lautenberg has low approval ratings, but so do all New Jersey politicians. I'm confident Lautenberg will dispatch any Republican challenger that might be thrown at him.
New Mexico--Pete Domenici is in hot water over his role in the U.S. Attorney firings....and may retire anyway. My bet is that Domenici runs again and gets re-elected. If he doesn't run, the Democrats may have a slight advantage in winning the open seat, but only a tiny one if Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson runs (even though I doubt she'd abandon her House seat).
North Carolina--Lame Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable, but it would take a special kind of Democrat to defeat her in a Presidential election year. Governor Mike Easley might be such a guy, but even in an Easley-Dole faceoff, I'd have to give a slight advantage to Dole considering the circumstances. Winnable, but an extreme longshot. I said last year that I expected it to be a generation before a Democrat won another Senate seat in the Old Confederacy outside of Arkansas. I still feel that way.
Oklahoma--Wingnut Republican James Inhofe is a shoo-in for re-election.
Oregon--Moderate Republican Gordon Smith is gonna be very hard to take down no matter which Democrat challenges him. I'll be stunned if Smith gets beaten.
Rhode Island--Democrat Jack Reed wins in a landslide.
South Carolina--He might face a tough primary challenge on the right for cooperating too much with those nasty Democrats, but Republican Lindsay Graham will nonetheless prevail handily in both the primary and the general election.
South Dakota--I'm doubtful that Democrat Tim Johnson will be well enough to run for re-election next year. If he isn't, Republicans will be strongly favored to pick up this seat. Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth may have even odds if she decided to run, but I honestly hope she doesn't because we can't afford to lose that House seat for a Senate run gamble. Bottom line: I'm betting the GOP gains a seat here.
Tennessee--Republican Lamar Alexander crushes any Democratic challenger that steps in his path.
Texas--The Democrats are delusionally optimistic about toppling one-term incumbent John Cornyn....in Texas.....with either Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John Edwards at the top of the ticket. I can't think of any Texas Democrat capable of getting within five points of Cornyn.....or any other candidate with an (R) next to his name for that matter.
Virginia--If Republican John Warner decides to run for another term (pretty much even odds on that bet right now), he'll win. If he doesn't, the Democrats have a modest chance of picking up a seat, particularly if former Governor Mark Warner runs. But the Republicans have a pretty solid bench of their own in Virginia, so don't count them out even if Warner (John that is) ends up retiring.
West Virginia--I submit that Shelley Moore Capito could take Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller if she challenged him in increasingly Republican West Virginia, but there's no indication that will happen at this stage, and until it does, you have to bet on Rockefeller.
Wyoming--Republican incumbent Mike Enzi is re-elected handily.
So there you have it. Even under my most optimistic prognosis, the Democrats are only poised to net one seat in 2008. It's way too early to give any merit to these predictions, but I'd be shocked if either party gained more than two seats in the 2008 cycle. It'll be interesting to watch the contests unfold in the months ahead.
Here are my general thoughts on the 2008 races, state by state.....
Alabama--Conservative Republican Jeff Sessions is up for re-election and would seem to be a shoo-in. There's a push for some statewide elected officer (Agriculture Secretary I believe) named Ron Sparks to hop in the race on the Democratic side, but I expect that some kid would shoot an 1,100-pound wild pig in the Alabama woods before a Democrat gets elected to a federal office in Alabama. Okay, bad example....but Sessions should still cruise to the finish line.
Alaska--There's some rumors of long-standing Republican curmudgeon Ted Stevens being emboiled in a mini-scandal, but unless he's either indicted or dead, Stevens will win by his usual 80%+ margin.
Arkansas--Conservative Democrat Mark Pryor is probably gonna win re-election, and may not even be battered bloody by the prospect of a Hillary candidacy given Hillary's Arkansas roots. The only caveat would be the prospect of former Republican Governor Mike Huckabee abandoning his Presidential bid and running against Pryor for the open Senate race. Huckabee has expressed no interest in doing so, but if he did, would give Pryor a run for his money.
Colorado--One of the Democrats best pick-up opportunities is Colorado, where incumbent Republican Wayne Allard is retiring. Popular Democratic Congressman Mark Udall is the likely nominee on the donk side, while a number of prominent Republicans could end up throwing their hats in the ring. If I had to put money on it at this stage, I'd bet Udall continues the Democratic Party's momentum in Colorado and pick up this seat, but as with all open seats, there's no way of knowing which direction things will go.
Delaware--Will Joe Biden retire from the Senate after his latest bid for the Presidency inevitably fails? I actually think he will, setting himself up for a Cabinet position in a would-be Democratic administration. Even without Biden on the ticket, you have to like the Democrats' odds at holding the Delaware Senate seat in 2008.
Georgia--The only Democrat who could win federal office in Georgia these days is Zell Miller, and given that nobody in the Democratic Party has any interest in bringing the deranged Miller back to the Senate, Republican Saxby Chambliss should score a safe double-digit re-election margin next year.
Idaho--Unless he retires, Republican Larry Craig will be re-elected. If he does retire, another Republican will follow in his footsteps. Take it to the bank.
Illinois--Despite a rhetorical blunder a couple of years ago, Democrat Dick Durbin is virtually assured of re-election in 2008.
Iowa--Given his penchant for over-the-top rhetoric in a culturally conservative state, Democrat Tom Harkin can never be completely counted upon for victory, but is nonetheless greatly favored in 2008 against any Republican that may choose to challenge him, particularly with Harkin poised to deliver pork by the bucket full to Iowa farmers as the chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee working on the upcoming farm bill.
Kansas--Republican Pat Roberts will be re-elected by 2-1 or better.
Kentucky--Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will be re-elected by 2-1 or better.
Louisiana--Despite the GOP's failure to secure a top-tier challenger to two-term Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, I still can't imagine a scenario where Landrieu gets re-elected given the changed demographics of post-Katrina Louisiana (fewer blacks) during a Presidential election year where any of the major Democratic candidates (Hillary, Obama, Edwards) will be about as popular as diarrhea in Louisiana. Place your bets on the Republicans picking up this seat.
Maine--Popular Republican moderate Susan Collins is being challenged by Democratic House member Tom Allen. Early polls show Collins leading 2-1, and while the outcome is not likely to be that lopsided, look for Collins to hang on by a comfortable margin.
Massachusetts--Since I haven't heard otherwise, I'll operate under the assumption that John Kerry is planning to run for another term in the Senate. Whether he does or doesn't, the Massachusetts Senate seat will remain in Democratic hands.
Michigan--Long-time Democratic incumbent Carl Levin is high-profile enough to overpower any Republican rivals, or at least he should be in economically volatile Michigan where voters are likely to be unpredictable.
Minnesota--Republican Norm Coleman is on the short list of most vulnerable incumbents, but he's a skilled politician who knows exactly what to do to win support among the suburban moderates needed to win in Minnesota. If Coleman faces off against Al Franken, it'll be a blow out in favor of Coleman. If Mike Ciresi gets the Democratic nomination, Coleman will win by a more modest margin.
Mississippi--Conventional wisdom is that geriatric Republican Thad Cochran plans to run for re-election. If he does, Election Night 2008 will be another coronation for him. If he doesn't, there's zero chance a Democrat wins a Mississippi Senate race....including former Attorney General Mike Moore who wouldn't get within seven points of a Republican in MS with Hillary or Obama at the top of the ticket.
Montana--It certainly is likely that long-time incumbent Democrat Max Baucus will be re-elected, but in a Presidential election year in Montana, Baucus could conceivably be taken down by a capable Republican challenger.
Nebraska--Unless he runs for President third-party with Mike Bloomberg, Chuck Hagel will be re-elected to the U.S. Senate for Nebraska. If Hagel doesn't run for Senate re-election, another Republican will win the seat.
New Hampshire--Tough call on this one. One-term GOP incumbent John Sununu is definitely vulnerable, but until I know the significance of his future Democratic challenger, I have to give Sununu a slight edge.
New Jersey--Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg is a very old man, but nonetheless seems poised to run for another term in the Senate next year. Lautenberg has low approval ratings, but so do all New Jersey politicians. I'm confident Lautenberg will dispatch any Republican challenger that might be thrown at him.
New Mexico--Pete Domenici is in hot water over his role in the U.S. Attorney firings....and may retire anyway. My bet is that Domenici runs again and gets re-elected. If he doesn't run, the Democrats may have a slight advantage in winning the open seat, but only a tiny one if Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson runs (even though I doubt she'd abandon her House seat).
North Carolina--Lame Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable, but it would take a special kind of Democrat to defeat her in a Presidential election year. Governor Mike Easley might be such a guy, but even in an Easley-Dole faceoff, I'd have to give a slight advantage to Dole considering the circumstances. Winnable, but an extreme longshot. I said last year that I expected it to be a generation before a Democrat won another Senate seat in the Old Confederacy outside of Arkansas. I still feel that way.
Oklahoma--Wingnut Republican James Inhofe is a shoo-in for re-election.
Oregon--Moderate Republican Gordon Smith is gonna be very hard to take down no matter which Democrat challenges him. I'll be stunned if Smith gets beaten.
Rhode Island--Democrat Jack Reed wins in a landslide.
South Carolina--He might face a tough primary challenge on the right for cooperating too much with those nasty Democrats, but Republican Lindsay Graham will nonetheless prevail handily in both the primary and the general election.
South Dakota--I'm doubtful that Democrat Tim Johnson will be well enough to run for re-election next year. If he isn't, Republicans will be strongly favored to pick up this seat. Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth may have even odds if she decided to run, but I honestly hope she doesn't because we can't afford to lose that House seat for a Senate run gamble. Bottom line: I'm betting the GOP gains a seat here.
Tennessee--Republican Lamar Alexander crushes any Democratic challenger that steps in his path.
Texas--The Democrats are delusionally optimistic about toppling one-term incumbent John Cornyn....in Texas.....with either Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John Edwards at the top of the ticket. I can't think of any Texas Democrat capable of getting within five points of Cornyn.....or any other candidate with an (R) next to his name for that matter.
Virginia--If Republican John Warner decides to run for another term (pretty much even odds on that bet right now), he'll win. If he doesn't, the Democrats have a modest chance of picking up a seat, particularly if former Governor Mark Warner runs. But the Republicans have a pretty solid bench of their own in Virginia, so don't count them out even if Warner (John that is) ends up retiring.
West Virginia--I submit that Shelley Moore Capito could take Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller if she challenged him in increasingly Republican West Virginia, but there's no indication that will happen at this stage, and until it does, you have to bet on Rockefeller.
Wyoming--Republican incumbent Mike Enzi is re-elected handily.
So there you have it. Even under my most optimistic prognosis, the Democrats are only poised to net one seat in 2008. It's way too early to give any merit to these predictions, but I'd be shocked if either party gained more than two seats in the 2008 cycle. It'll be interesting to watch the contests unfold in the months ahead.
posted by Mark at 4:54 PM
12 Comments:
I don't think Republicans pick up South Dakota. I think Johnson will end up running again. This agricultural-dependent state is not likely to send two Republicans to the Senate who would almost certainly slash and burn farm assistance.
I also think that Landrieu probably gets reelected narrowly against whatever second-tier Republican they put up against her. Notice how the only Republican that leads her in polls in Bobby Jindal and he is likely to be governor in 2008.
With 21 Republican seats up and just 12 Democratic ones up, I don't see how the Democrats don't pick up at least a seat. Republicans have made gains on this Senate cycle every year going back to 1996. It is very unlikely that it will happen for a third time.
As for coattails, just remember years like 1988. We had a Democrat who was further to the left than any of the Democrats currently running, yet Democrats still picked up a seat with critical gains and holds in states like Virginia, New Jersey, Michigan, and Texas where Dukakis did very poorly.
I say the Dems hold their own and pick up Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia when Warner retires.
Oklahoma may actually end up closer than most people think. The Bush effect in Texas likely spread north in 2004, and a new friend of James and I from Oklahoma says that the state is trending Democratic after Henry's 2-1 reelection and that unlike 2004, in 2008 Democrats would likely win some counties and Inhofe would be very vulnerable. Oklahoma had the biggest swing to Dukakis in 1988 and it will likely have another huge Dem swing in 2008, though the Repub will still likely win the state, but probably with no more than 55-60% of the vote. Oklahoma was surprisingly close in 1992 and 1996 (going for Bush and Dole by only 8).
http://politicarama.blogspot.com
Sara, I agree with you that the Democratic nominee should get in the 40% to 43% range in Oklahoma in 2008, especially if its not Hillary.
This would be nice because it could put OK-04 back into play, which is a district that is historically Democratic(it still has a 2 to 1 Democratic registration edge). Democrats usually held it easily until 1994 when J.C. Watts won it as an open seat and he never held it by outstanding margins.
I would love to at least put a good scare into Tom Cole, the current far-right moonbat Republican that holds OK-04 who also happens to be in charge of the Republican's House campaign committee. He barely won in open seat contest in 2002 against an underfunded former state legislator that Democrats threw up as a sacrificial lamb. He was then unopposed in 2004 and won with 65% against a nobody in 2006. Against a good populist Democrat who points out his votes against working Americans, I could see him being closely squeezed.
Mr. Phips, am I correct in assuming you are the poster formerly known as "Sean"?
I would say that in South Dakota, you're putting too much emphasis on the idea of Republicans not being as farmer-friendly as Democrats, at least as it pertains to farm assistance. Ever since 1996's disastrous Freedom-to-Farm debacle, Midwestern Republicans have generally come to accept the position that farm welfare is here to stay....and with the farm economy looking strong for the foreseeable future (however artificially the success may be, thanks to ethanol) I'm not anticipating South Dakota voters overly concerned that electing Republicans to the Senate would result in poverty on the farmstead. Ideally, Johnson's recovery will continue going well enough to where he can run for re-election next year, at which point the Dems have the advantage in holding the seat. That scenario still strikes me as a longshot though.
The only situation in which I can see Landrieu re-elected is if the Republicans are again unfocused enough to run a half dozen challengers that split the anti-Landrieu vote and force a runoff against a mediocre Suzy Terrell-esque challenger....a runoff not held on the same day in which every Republican in the state is motivated to vote against Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
Keep in mind that in both SD and LA, the Republican headwind in 2004 was too strong for, respectively, the senior Democratic Senate leader and any number of credible conservative Democratic challengers vying for an open seat. And that was with comparatively benign John Kerry frontlining the Democratic ticket nationally. Replace Kerry with Hillary in 2008 and every white hick in both states will burst into the voting booth in an anti-Democratic Party rage.
I concur that Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia are doable. My current guess is a net gain of one (possibly two) for the Dems in the 2008 Senate races. The Hillary factor could prove an insurmountable dealbreaker, however.
Sara, that's a pretty bold prediction about Oklahoma. Keep in mind that 1988, 1992, and 1996 were pre-"culture war". Particularly south of the Mason-Dixon line, I expect that the great red state/blue state divide of the 2000 election pushed conservative Democrats into the red state forever, at least in federal elections. Brad Henry's victory was impressive, but strikes me as no more indicative of the Dems' prospects in federal elections that Dave Freudenthal's victory was suggestive of seeing a blue Wyoming next year. The 1980's farm crisis had battered Middle America bloody from about 1985-87, which helps explain Dukakis' better than expected performance in not only Oklahoma, but all of Middle America.
With all of this said, Inhofe is so controversial that he could conceivably be held to within 10 points by a perfect Democratic challenger. On the other hand, the candidacy of Obama or particularly Hillary is gonna raise the hair on the red necks of so many Oklahomans that it's likely to produce a repeat of Tom Coburn's filleting of near-perfect conservative Democrat Brad Carson in 2004.
We'll see. Our new friend Jeff is a proud Oklahoman and is confident that Dems will do better in Oklahoma in 2008 and believes that Inhofe is in serious danger and that the right Dem pres candidate (ie. Richardson) and the "wrong" Repub (ie. Giuliani) may put Oklahoma close to if not in swing-state status. I am skeptical about his optimistic predictions on the state president-wise and Senate-wise, but we shall see. I have Oklahoma as "likely to strong GOP", meaning the GOP will win the state by 10-15 if not 20.
Even though California has no statewide races in 2008, we will have plenty of entertaining House races with indictments on the horizon for Do-Little, Jerry Lewis, and some others, as well as some Republicans in districts that are trending less Republican (Mary Bono, David Dreier [Russ Warner is running again, with my wholehearted support!]). Also, Boxer has gotten a head start on her 2010 campaign, in anticipation that she'll face Gropenfuhrer, who will be term-limited that same year.
Mark, 2004 was a very different type of election. You had Republicans turning out every possible vote that they could to reelect Bush and Democrats were way behind in getting out their votes. Judging by the 2006 results, Democrats have at least caught up a little bit and Republicans don't turn out as well in certain climates.
I also have a difficult time agreeing with your analysis in Louisiana. Had John Breaux run for reelection in 2004, he would have had little trouble winning reelection. An incumbent Senator has never been defeated in Louisiana since the state existed and Landrieu should be able to eke out a narrow victory. Keep in mind that Democrats still have a huge majority in registration statewide. And yes I was formerly Sean.
Sara, speaking of California House races. I am very interested in the McNerney race(CA-11). Republicans seem hopeful of knocking him off, but I am not so sure they can. First of all, he has been working the district in ways that I have never seen a freshman ever do. Second is that the district is undeniably trending towards Democrats. What do you think?
Oops, how could I forget McNerney! I too think he will win, though the GOP challenger will not go down without a fight. The district is trending Democratic, though I want to check the voting data to see how much it has trended Dem. San Joaquin County, the main county in the district, used to be a very conservative rural agricultural area, but is receiving a large influx of Bay Area residents, which have moderated the county and the district. I am confident that Jerry will win, and my Calitics friends and I will do everything we can to make sure he stays in the House.
Sara, I can't wait for the 2011 redistricting in California. If as expected, Democrats win back the governorship in 2010 they will be able to give McNerney a safe Democratic seat and pick up three currently Republican held seats CA-03, CA-24, CA-26 by making them very Democratic with precincts from surrounding districts.
I too can't wait for 2011. I also can't wait for 2009, as not only will a Democrat likely be in the White House, but I will finally be out of Texas and back home in California!
Speaking of CA-26, which contains my hometown Rancho Cucamonga, Russ Warner is running again and should at least give Dreier a good run for his money, as he seems to fit the district well from what I've read about him, and the district is trending less Republican. CA-26's PVI is similar to CA-11's. Though Dreier is not as extreme or corrupt as Pombo was, as a 14-term veteran of the House, he could easily be tied to the GOP's failures in Congress, and Warner is more moderate than McNerney.
We have been discussing how we can upset or at least give the incumbent Republicans a good run for their money, and we have found that we will be having a lot of fun over the next few election cycles (even more so after the 2011 redistricting), not just with Do-Little and Dreier, but possibly also with some incumbents I thought were invulnerable, such as Ken Calvert and Mary Bono. Jerry Lewis probably won't run again, making winning CA-41 more of a long shot for us, but we will still try.
http://www.calitics.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2627
Sara, the problem with trying to go after Doolittle's and Lewis' seats is that they are so Republican that the Democrat would have almost no chance at being reelected to the seat.
Until the 2011 redistricting, I would work on protecting McNerney and possibly going after Dreier in CA-26.
Even though districts like CA-04 and 41 are long shots, we are still going to work to at least make the Republican margins smaller until the districts eventually flip. The demographic shifts of the state show that we can't be complacent in these areas for much longer, as they are our "growth zones" and their demographics are shifting in our favor. 58 County Strategy, here we come!
Sununu is in much graver danger than even I thought! Former governor/2002 challenger Shaheen is trouncing him in this poll!
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate08/
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