MN-03 and Other Hot Congressional Races

As is common following Labor Day the year before the next election, the 2008 Congressional races are starting to take form. We're months away from the first primaries, but things are already starting to get interesting with some major retirement announcements in the pipeline. The two biggest are obviously Virginia Republican John Warner and Nebraska Republican Chuck Hagel. Both are traditional red states, but the Dems are poised to put forth two very strong contenders that put them at even odds or better of taking both seats.

In Virginia, popular former Governor Mark Warner has already announced his candidacy, and early polls show him with a commanding lead over all of the three most likely Republican opponents (Tom Davis, Jim Gilmore, and George Allen). I'm betting Davis, a suburban moderate from the northern Virginia, will get the nomination, and he could prove to be a worthy challenger for Warner....at least more so than Gilmore or Allen. Even if Davis does turn out to be the challenge Warner, I'd still put the odds at 2-1 in Warner's favor here.

Nebraska's a different story. Former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey has expressed interest in getting in the race, and would easily be the strongest Democratic candidate in crimson red Nebraska, but my opinion is that he'd still be the underdog in a Presidential election year where Hillary Clinton would be a huge millstone around the neck of a Democrat in a state like Nebraska. The mountain for the Democrats got even higher today when former Nebraska Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns announced his candidacy for the state. Johanns is very popular, and doesn't seem quite as removed from the political lexicon as Kerrey, who's been out of the Senate since 2000. We have our work cut out for us with this race.

Closer to home, the surprise retirement announcement from suburban Minnesota Republican Jim Ramstad gives us a 50-50 chance at picking up another House seat. Ramstad is a widely respected moderate Republican in an affluent Hennepin County district that has been trending Democrat in recent election cycles. If the Republicans are wise enough to nominate another moderate (or at least pseudo-moderate) in the Ramstad mold, they'll most likely hold the seat, particularly with the help of Senator Norm Coleman, who I expect to do very well here. But if the GOP nominates a hard-core conservative like State Representative Erik Paulsen or former gubernatorial candidate Brian Sullivan, I'd bet against them.

For their part, the Democrats also need to play this one smart. An aggressive anti-war candidate who talks in platitudes about education and health care is likely to do well here, but a fiery economic populist won't. One name floated around is youthful State Representative Melissa Hortmann, whom I don't know enough about to either pick or pan. But another oft-cited contender I'm not as crazy about is Buck Humphrey (grandson of Hubert and the losing Secretary of State candidate from 2002). I'm not sure how good of a candidate Buck is or isn't, but I think the Humphrey name has become more of a liability than an asset at this stage, particularly in this youthful yuppie-fied district. The candidate who would be our strongest, 2006 gubernatorial running mate Judi Dutcher, has unfortunately taken herself out of contention with last year's E-85 gaffe a week before the election. My guess is that Dutcher would be the presumed frontrunner for both the nomination and the overall election if not for that uber-snafu.

The next couple months are certain to be full of activity in Washington, with more retirement announcements and new candidates stepping up to the plate. Hopefully, it'll be as exciting watching events unfold as it was two years ago at this time when the seeds of the Democratic Congressional takeover were first planted.