Made It To 30
Thanks to Sara for recognizing my birthday Saturday, the day where I crossed the threshold into geezerdom. It was a nice sunny day at the Minnesota State Fair, and I got to hear snippets of speeches from both of Minnesota's DFL Senate candidates, Al Franken and Mike Ciresi. I guess you can't ask for a better way to reach the age of 30 since lingering around in your 20's is a biological impossibility. Still, my boss' snarky advice on Monday morning to schedule my first colonoscopy hit just a little too home.
Usually fall ushers in a renewed energy for politics, and that could very well be the case this year too. Right now, it's just a little hard for me to get too excited about anything. I haven't been this blase about the political horserace since this time in 1999, so I suspect something's gotta give. Most likely, that "something" will triggered in the coming months, because autumn just won't seem like autumn if I'm not obsessed with the political horserace...even in an odd-numbered year.
Usually fall ushers in a renewed energy for politics, and that could very well be the case this year too. Right now, it's just a little hard for me to get too excited about anything. I haven't been this blase about the political horserace since this time in 1999, so I suspect something's gotta give. Most likely, that "something" will triggered in the coming months, because autumn just won't seem like autumn if I'm not obsessed with the political horserace...even in an odd-numbered year.
posted by Mark at 7:02 PM
7 Comments:
Mark, I am wondering if you still live in Tim Walz's district. He is one of the best of our freshman class and I hope he can survive the Republican onslought being waged against him. This is a moderate, Dem-trending district that Walz is a good fit for. I would hate to see him be defeated by a far right Republican like Randy Demmer or Dick Day.
Mark lives in Leonard Boswell's district, IA-03, in the Des Moines area I think.
I don't know much about Iowa politics, but I think the 3rd district is going to be competitive also, with Lamberti, who garnered about 46% of the vote last year, likely to run again whether or not Boswell retires (and I hope Boswell does retire so we have a better shot at keeping that seat with a strong Dem from the Des Moines area, which I don't think Boswell is originally from).
As for me, I live in a non-competitive district in TX-24, represented by Shrub rubber stamp Kenny Marchant, but my hometown in CA-26 is highly competitive, only in a good way for us with Russ Warner running again and doing well in fundraising, and the district trending less Republican (it has a Cook PVI of only R+4, similar to CA-11, and I hope McNerney can survive the Republican onslaught aimed at him).
http://www.firedoglake.com/2007/08/04/blue-america-welcomes-russ-warner/#comments
Mr. Phips, I like Walz as well. My parents live in his district and I got to see him twice on the campaign trail. Voters seem to be impressed with Walz and I highly doubt he'll be taken down, particularly by Day, the biggest eight-ball amongst a very crowded field in the Minnesota Legislature. How confident are you about your Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand getting a second term?
Sara is correct. I'm in Leonard Boswell's district in central Iowa. Boswell is old and decidedly uncharismatic. Even in Democratic years, he doesn't win with very impressive margins. While the odds are pretty good he'll win again in 2008 simply because of the Democratic tide, I'd still say Walz's prospects are stronger than Boswell's. And you're correct that Boswell is originally from a farm in southern Iowa, not Des Moines.
Lamberti is far too conservative for central Iowa and would be unlikely to win against a competent Democrat. A very weak performance by Boswell or a poor successor is the only thing that could get a hack like Lamberti elected. I'm inclined to think he had his change in 2006 and missed it.
As for California, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Dreier's defeat in CA-26, but am also skeptical of McNerney's chances at re-election in CA-11. I could see a situation where the parties swap a seat in the state....but I would say Dreier's chances at re-election are probably better than McNerney's.
Mark, im glad you have confidence in Walz. Ive seen him speak on TV and he is impossible not to like. I do worry about Gillibrand. She is a very skilled politician, is working the district hard, and has raised a ton of money, but Republicans are likely to throw everything but the kitched sink at her. She is also helped by the fact that Republicans are likely to have a brutal primary and she is one Democrat(along with Hall in NY-19) that will actually benefit from having Hillary at the top of the ticket.
Republicans don't seem to be coming as hard after Boswell as they did in 2005 and 2006. I don't think Lamberti will run again since he didn't even come that close to beating Boswell and he was a highly touted candidate. Republicans would be smart to recruit a moderate, low key Greg Ganske style Republican for that seat, but they seem to want to go for the hardcore conservatives these days.
I worry about McNerney too. What he has going for him is that he is working his district hard, and has raised a good amount of money. He is also lucky that the Republican likely to run against him is a hard right Conservative, which doesn't quite fit the increasingly Democratic district. I say he has about a 50/50 shot at reelection and Gillibrand has about a 55/45 shot.
I like Walz too and have little doubt about him winning reelection. McNerney I agree will have to work to win reelection, but we at Calitics and elsewhere will be behind him every step of the way. Ditto Russ Warner in his attempt to knock off Dreier. (I'd love to meet Warner in person and if I returned to California between now and Election Day 2008 it would be fairly easy since Warner lives in my hometown not far from my old neighborhood.)
And Republicans' tendency to go for the hardcore conservatives can only help us. In fact, many conservatives say that when they lose elections, it is because they are not conservative enough! I hope they continue to think that way. It can only help us!
Sara, you make some good points. McNerney is probably among the five most vulnerable Democrats, and if he survives 2008, which is about 50/50 right now, the Democrats are probably picking up House seats in the election.
One Democrat who I know won't survive is Tim Mahoney who took over Mark Foley's seat in Florida. The seat is not that Republican and is actually trending towards Democrats, but from what I hear Mahoney is just a very poor politician and will have an uphill battle to hold his seat.
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