McCain Surging
Looks like another of my predictions regarding the 2008 Republican nomination is about to bite the dust. John McCain is indeed on the upswing, particularly in New Hampshire. This is very bad news for Democrats as McCain would be the toughest Republican to beat in a national election, especially after being vindicated on his Iraq strategy with the military success of the surge. McCain's excellent Christmas ad is Exhibit A on why he is such a compelling figure in so many ways. I have no doubt whatsoever that he would trounce Hillary Clinton next November and would be odds-on to take down Obama, Edwards, and any other of the second and third-tier Democratic candidates as well.
With the Republican establishment scared shitless at the surge of populist Mike Huckabee in recent polls, the only patently unacceptable McCain is starting to look much better to them. His hypothetical electability numbers soar above those of his Republican competitors in a general election, adding further fuel to McCain's fire. All of these major newspaper endorsements aren't hurting either.
It should be said that McCain is anathema to a large number of the Republican base, who view his occasional dissents from the GOP party line as unforgivable acts of treason. Some of the party faithful may sit out a national election in which McCain is the nominee, but I suspect he'd more than make up for that with independents, with whom he has always polled exceptionally well.
The Republican race is still wide open and I'm nowhere near ready to anoint McCain the frontrunner. Still, the same calculation applied four years ago by Democrats who rallied around their "most electable" candidate John Kerry, seems to be on the forefront of a plurality of Republican minds these days, especially with the rise of Huckabee. Hopefully, the momentum shifts once again in the next two weeks. Democrats should be folding their hands in prayer hoping Willard beats McCain in New Hampshire two weeks from tonight, or else I'm afraid we're in trouble.
With the Republican establishment scared shitless at the surge of populist Mike Huckabee in recent polls, the only patently unacceptable McCain is starting to look much better to them. His hypothetical electability numbers soar above those of his Republican competitors in a general election, adding further fuel to McCain's fire. All of these major newspaper endorsements aren't hurting either.
It should be said that McCain is anathema to a large number of the Republican base, who view his occasional dissents from the GOP party line as unforgivable acts of treason. Some of the party faithful may sit out a national election in which McCain is the nominee, but I suspect he'd more than make up for that with independents, with whom he has always polled exceptionally well.
The Republican race is still wide open and I'm nowhere near ready to anoint McCain the frontrunner. Still, the same calculation applied four years ago by Democrats who rallied around their "most electable" candidate John Kerry, seems to be on the forefront of a plurality of Republican minds these days, especially with the rise of Huckabee. Hopefully, the momentum shifts once again in the next two weeks. Democrats should be folding their hands in prayer hoping Willard beats McCain in New Hampshire two weeks from tonight, or else I'm afraid we're in trouble.
posted by Mark at 6:15 PM
1 Comments:
Ill tell you one flat our prediction right now: If Clinton wins Iowa, McCain takes New Hampshire and he gets the nomination.
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