Why Huckabee CAN Win It All
The establishment snobs of both political parties, along with clueless media pundits, have reached a predictable conclusion in response to the surge of Republican dark horse Mike Huckabee.....that he probably can't win the GOP nomination and he definitely can't win the general election. I couldn't disagree more, and fear Huckabee to be second only to John McCain among Republican candidates on the electability spectrum.
After George Bush was re-elected in 2004 based upon landslide margins among low-income religious radicals in Middle America, one would think the media and the party apparatus would start to get the message about the vital importance of evangelical voters in electing Republicans to government. The weakest link of the GOP coalition is the evangelical vote. If those voters aren't energized, they are most likely to sit out the election in protest or, in the case of the less hard-core evangelicals, vote for a Democrat. That's why abortion rights and gay marriage supporter Rudy Giuliani would be a calamity for the Republicans in a general election.
Mike Huckabee would consolidate the evangelical vote before the conventions, thus securing quasi-swing states like Missouri and West Virginia in his column by July and forcing the Democrats into the same ruinous 18-state strategy that has produced defeat for them in the last two Presidential elections. And after the Republicans get the Christian foot soldiers fully marching forward, convincing the robber barons and the warmongers to climb onboard will be a cinch. Even with all the whining coming from the GOP's "ownership society" blue bloods and the "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" crowd regarding Huckabee, those voters will certainly see Huckabee as an acceptable (and necessary!) alternative to a Democratic nominee vowing to raise taxes on the rich and "cut and run" from Iraq. The Wall Street Journal editorial page and the John Birch Society will not be endorsing Hillary, Obama, or John Edwards, contrary to the silliness coming from nervous establishment Republicans.
Huckabee has been underestimated every step of the way, and even in the wake of 10 days worth of scandalous headlines, his poll numbers have only increased. It's rather astounding that so many people still underestimate him. The media and the party establishments (both Dems and Reps) have convinced themselves that Huckabee can be successfully branded as a theocrat. It's possible that the "fire and brimstone huckster" tag will stick, but Huckabee strikes me as imminently capable of deflecting it and even using it to his advantage ("the lib'rul media and the Clinton/Obama/Edwards campaign thinks people of faith are crazy radicals.....well I'm here to tell them that we are the majority"). The last two politicians who were are as pathologically underestimated every step of the way as Mike Huckabee were Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. Both men were twice elected President. Current establishment snickering strikes me as just as likely to force alot of "really smart people" to eat a plate full of crow next November.
After George Bush was re-elected in 2004 based upon landslide margins among low-income religious radicals in Middle America, one would think the media and the party apparatus would start to get the message about the vital importance of evangelical voters in electing Republicans to government. The weakest link of the GOP coalition is the evangelical vote. If those voters aren't energized, they are most likely to sit out the election in protest or, in the case of the less hard-core evangelicals, vote for a Democrat. That's why abortion rights and gay marriage supporter Rudy Giuliani would be a calamity for the Republicans in a general election.
Mike Huckabee would consolidate the evangelical vote before the conventions, thus securing quasi-swing states like Missouri and West Virginia in his column by July and forcing the Democrats into the same ruinous 18-state strategy that has produced defeat for them in the last two Presidential elections. And after the Republicans get the Christian foot soldiers fully marching forward, convincing the robber barons and the warmongers to climb onboard will be a cinch. Even with all the whining coming from the GOP's "ownership society" blue bloods and the "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" crowd regarding Huckabee, those voters will certainly see Huckabee as an acceptable (and necessary!) alternative to a Democratic nominee vowing to raise taxes on the rich and "cut and run" from Iraq. The Wall Street Journal editorial page and the John Birch Society will not be endorsing Hillary, Obama, or John Edwards, contrary to the silliness coming from nervous establishment Republicans.
Huckabee has been underestimated every step of the way, and even in the wake of 10 days worth of scandalous headlines, his poll numbers have only increased. It's rather astounding that so many people still underestimate him. The media and the party establishments (both Dems and Reps) have convinced themselves that Huckabee can be successfully branded as a theocrat. It's possible that the "fire and brimstone huckster" tag will stick, but Huckabee strikes me as imminently capable of deflecting it and even using it to his advantage ("the lib'rul media and the Clinton/Obama/Edwards campaign thinks people of faith are crazy radicals.....well I'm here to tell them that we are the majority"). The last two politicians who were are as pathologically underestimated every step of the way as Mike Huckabee were Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. Both men were twice elected President. Current establishment snickering strikes me as just as likely to force alot of "really smart people" to eat a plate full of crow next November.
posted by Mark at 3:53 PM
2 Comments:
Missouri is NOT a quasi-swing state. Ditto WV. West Virginia, except for military and abortion is one of the most leftist states in the US.
Missouri is a total toss up in 2008, and as of now, leans Dem.
Also, I think Oklahoma will be competitive in 2008.
I liked Huckabee untill I heard his AIDs comment. He is now Fuckabee to me.
Huckabee would likely win if Democrats nominated Hillary. Against a populist like Huckabee, Hillary's elitist New York liberal image will likely push socially Conservative, but economically populist states that currently look locked up for Democrats like West Virginia, Arkansas, and possibly even Ohio into the Republican column.
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