Early Thoughts on House Races
It's way too early to get too in-depth on the 435 U.S. House races taking place next year, but I thought I'd give a brief list of seats that I consider either "moderately vulnerable" or "in serious danger" of changing party hands in 2008. To arrive at these conclusions, I am going under the assumption that the Democratic Presidential candidate will be Hillary Clinton, a scenario in which I believe more seats will become vulnerable than if John Edwards or Bill Richardson were able to pull off a surprise Lazarus-like victory. As I said, this is a very rudimentary outline, and at the end of the day, may prove to be far from prophetic.
Moderately Vulnerable Democratic Seats
AZ-08 (Giffords)
C0-03 (J. Salazar)
CT-02 (Courtney)
FL-22 (Klein)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
IN-09 (Hill)
IA-03 (Boswell)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
LA-03 (Melancon)
ME-01 (Allen--running for Senate)
MN-01 (Walz)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NY-19 (Hall)
NC-11 (Shuler)
OH-18 (Space)
OR-04 (DeFazio....if he runs for the Senate)
SC-05 (Spratt)
WV-01 (Mollohan)
WI-08 (Kagen)
Democratic Seats In Serious Danger
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
GA-08 (Marshall)
KS-02 (Boyda)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-10 (Carney)
TX-17 (Edwards)
TX-22 (Lampson)
Moderately Vulnerable Republican Seats
CA-04 (Doolittle)
CA-26 (Dreier)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
IL-11 (Weller--retiring)
IL-18 (LaHood--retiring)
MD-01 (Gilchrest.....strong primary challenge could unseat incumbent)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NV-03 (Porter)
NJ-07 (Ferguson)
NY-25 (Walsh)
NY-26 (Reynolds)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
NC-08 (Hayes)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
OH-16 (Regula...if he retires)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-11 (Davis...if he runs for Senate)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (Cubin)
Republican Seats in Serious Danger
CT-04 (Shays)
MN-03 (Ramstad--retiring)
NM-01 (Wilson)
OH-15 (Pryce--retiring)
I haven't been following House races too closely thus far. Have I missed anything significant with this list?
Moderately Vulnerable Democratic Seats
AZ-08 (Giffords)
C0-03 (J. Salazar)
CT-02 (Courtney)
FL-22 (Klein)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
IN-09 (Hill)
IA-03 (Boswell)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
LA-03 (Melancon)
ME-01 (Allen--running for Senate)
MN-01 (Walz)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NY-19 (Hall)
NC-11 (Shuler)
OH-18 (Space)
OR-04 (DeFazio....if he runs for the Senate)
SC-05 (Spratt)
WV-01 (Mollohan)
WI-08 (Kagen)
Democratic Seats In Serious Danger
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
GA-08 (Marshall)
KS-02 (Boyda)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-10 (Carney)
TX-17 (Edwards)
TX-22 (Lampson)
Moderately Vulnerable Republican Seats
CA-04 (Doolittle)
CA-26 (Dreier)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
IL-11 (Weller--retiring)
IL-18 (LaHood--retiring)
MD-01 (Gilchrest.....strong primary challenge could unseat incumbent)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NV-03 (Porter)
NJ-07 (Ferguson)
NY-25 (Walsh)
NY-26 (Reynolds)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
NC-08 (Hayes)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
OH-16 (Regula...if he retires)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-11 (Davis...if he runs for Senate)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (Cubin)
Republican Seats in Serious Danger
CT-04 (Shays)
MN-03 (Ramstad--retiring)
NM-01 (Wilson)
OH-15 (Pryce--retiring)
I haven't been following House races too closely thus far. Have I missed anything significant with this list?
posted by Mark at 4:51 PM
13 Comments:
sara, your link isn't working for me. I can't find any evidence that they voted on this bill today. Are you sure you weren't looking at the previous House vote on SCHIP last month? If so, they're voting on it again this week.
Sara, I just found it a couple of minutes ago. Thanks for the heads-up. Hopefully, this buries this legislation for the time being. If there was a responsible funding mechanism, I'd support it. But there wasn't....so I don't.
Im not sure I agree with all of the ones in serious danger. If Chet Edwards could survive the Republican avalanche in 2002 with then highly popular George W. Bush at the top of ballot, I don't think Republicans are going to get that seat until he retires.
With AZ-05, Harry Mitchell has the advantage of being a very skilled politician and being in a district with a rapidly growing Hispanic population. It also helps him that Republicans cant seem to find a top tier candidate to run against him.
PA-04 is historically a very Democratic district, which is revealed in the Democrats 51%-35% registration advantage. I think Altmire may actually be helped if Hart runs again, because she will not be seen as an agent of change in an environment when voters badly want change.
I also don't think they are going to come close to getting Mollahan in WV-01. They ran the strongest Republican they could have in 2006 and he still won by a 2 to 1 margin.
For the Republicans, I am surprised you don't have IL-10 on here. Mark Kirk is on borrowed time in this rapidly Dem trending district. John Kerry won here by six points in 2004 and any Democrat will probably win here by eight to twelve points in 2008.
Here is my revised list:
Moderately Vulnerable Democratic Seats
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
IN-09 (Hill)
IA-03 (Boswell)
KS-03(Moore)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
ME-01 (Allen--running for Senate)
MN-01 (Walz)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-20 (Gillibrand)
NC-11 (Shuler)
OH-18 (Space)
PA-04 (Altmire)
TX-17 (Edwards)
WI-08 (Kagen)
Democratic Seats In Serious Danger
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
GA-08 (Marshall)
KS-02 (Boyda)
MA-05(Meehan-vacating to become College head)-this should not even be close.
PA-10 (Carney)
TX-22 (Lampson)
WI-08 (Kagen)
Moderately Vulnerable Republican Seats
CA-04 (Doolittle)
CA-26 (Dreier)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
IL-14(Hastert—retiring)
IL-18 (LaHood--retiring)
MI-07(Wahlberg)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NJ-03 (Saxton)
NJ-07 (Ferguson)
NY-25 (Walsh)
NY-26 (Reynolds)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
NC-08 (Hayes)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
OH-16 (Regula...if he retires)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-10 (Wolf)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (Cubin)
Republican Seats in Serious Danger
CT-04 (Shays)
IL-11 (Weller--retiring)
MN-03 (Ramstad--retiring)
NM-01 (Wilson)
NV-03 (Porter)
OH-15 (Pryce--retiring)
VA-11 (Davis...if he runs for Senate)
I took Ron Klein(FL-22) off here. There is no way anybody will come close to beating him in this heavily Jewish and Dem trending district.
I also took off Melancon(LA-03) and Salazar(CO-03). After Salazar's 62%-37% win in 2006 and Melancon's 55%-40% win over a highly touted state Senator, I doubt these guys will even be targetted.
mr. phips, I forgot a few on my list, and Mark Kirk in IL-10 was definitely one of them. I'll put him on the "moderately vulnerable Republican seats" list. Keep in mind, however, that the all-Democratic Legislature in Illinois right now is absolute trainwreck, meaning I'm not convinced these suburban voters (most moderate Republicans just a few short years ago) will continue to trend to the Democrats' direction after witnessing the comedy of errors that Democratic government has brought them at the state level.
On the "Republican seats in serious danger" list, I forgot all about AZ-01, where Rick Renzi is retiring. That one should be close.
With higher turnout and Hillary likely to be on the top of the ballot this year, Chet Edwards is likely to have another Herculean 2004-esque struggle. Charlie Melancon isn't out of the woods for the same reason. It's possible that otherwise-entrenched Southern Dems like Gene Taylor and Bud Cramer could also be in trouble if Hillary's at the top of the ticket, but I'm not gonna put either of them on the endangered list just yet.
Mark, if the GOP couldn't get Gene Taylor and Bud Cramer in 1994, they are going to have to wait until they retire to get those seats. Anyway, I don't know if Hillary will be as big of a drag as everyone says. If she is, she probably can't win the election.
Sara, I am way more concerned about Lampson. Although the district is slowly getting less Republican due to the growing Hispanic and Asian populations, Lampson will still have hands full holding onto that district. However, I give him a better chance of survival than Tim Mahoney in FL-16. I agree that that Giuliani wont carry the district by the 70%-30% Bush did. It will probably be more like 64%-35%, which can only help Edwards.
Keep in mind that Chet Edwards had a horrible opponent in 2004.....Arlene Wohlgenmuth or something like that. She was deemed too far right even for Crawford, Texas. Chet is a skillful politician, but all he needs is one strong opponent and his career is finished in that district. I will probably go into every election cycle predicting no better than 50-50 odds for Edwards survival.
Particularly if Hillary becomes the face of the national Democratic Party, I don't think we've seen the last of the South's realignment to the GOP, meaning that either in 2008 or 2010 (the latter if she somehow gets elected President), even the Bud Cramers, Gene Taylors, John Spratts and Lincoln Davises will cease to be electable. Even if Hillary goes away, the trendline for a crimson-red Republican South seems pretty inevitable, particularly now with immigration rising quickly as a major wedge issue in which the Democratic position will find the least support in the South.
mr. phips, Mahoney's district isn't nearly as conservative as Lampson's. Is there a reason why you think Mahoney's more vulnerable? I'd be surprised to see either one re-elected. For whatever reason, I'm a little more optimistic about Carney's prospects in PA-10, but am no better than 50/50 with Altmire. PA-04 is a historically Democratic district, but the demographics of the Pittsburgh area have changed alot in the last 20 years. Far fewer union steelworkers....and far more white-collar anti-tax yuppies...and by and large, this demographic has migrated to the northern suburbs where much of PA-04 is located.
Is Meehan's seat really considered endangered? I struggle to see how Massachusetts elects a Republican to Congress in 2008, but I suppose the right "moderate" candidate could get the job done.
Mark, I think Mahoney's seat is more vulnerable because Mahoney is a much weaker politician than Lampson is. Lampson will do everything he has to in order to get reelected. Even that may not be enough, but I know for a fact that he is working his butt off in that district. Mahoney seems like a very lazy Congressman who really doesn't know what he is doing.
I think Altmire should be able to solidify himself in PA-04. His pro-life and pro-gun, but economically liberal views seem to fit well with PA-04. I think Altmire has a better chance than Carney, but now I see Carney as a slight favorite in PA-10, mainly because it has much of Dem trending Lackawanna county in it.
Meehan's seat is up in a Special Election on October 16th. This is a district that his very heavily Democratic(John Kerry won it by like 17 points), but the Democratic candidate only has a ten point lead over the Republican running. I would imagine that the Democrat(Tsongas) is helping herself by linking the Republican to Bush and John Boehner and their opposition to S-CHIP. Keep a close eye on that race. If Tsongas doesn't win it, it shows that there is a wave developing against the Democrats, which makes little sense, since we have an unpopular Republican President in the White House.
Sara, I said, that this "isnt the greatest job I ever had". Its funny that we heard about this, since Steve LaTourette of OH-14 said the same thing after being elected in 1994 and we heard nothing then. Some "liberal media, huh?
Mark, there is a better chance of you not thinking the worst then Gene Taylor being defeated.
Tinklenburg should at least make MN-06 competitive.
I would agree with James on Taylor. The only way he leaves the House is in a pine box.
I also don't think Bud Cramer will ever be in much danger. His district is still heavily Democratic at the local level and would not be surprised to even see a Democratic Presidential candidate get 45% or more there in 2008.
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