Battleground State Analysis
This may seem like a strange time to do a state-by-state evaluation of the Presidential race given that we're in the midst of the conventions and the polls are in flux, but two weeks from now I anticipate a substantial McCain lead in every poll as a result of his convention bounce that will last throughout September, so that will alter the political map in a way that is not necessarily permanent as well. It may very well be that McCain's post-convention bounce remains or even grows throughout October, but recent election history suggests convention bounces rarely stick and the race ultimately reverts to the pre-convention divide give or take a couple of points. Thus, the best snapshot of what we should expect can probably be given now when neither convention is over and the candidates are evenly divided.
With that said, here's a look at how all the battleground, or even conceivable battleground, states are likely to tumble come November by my estimation...
Alaska--This is uncharted territory as Alaska has never been a battleground state before and it's tough to measure how voters there will respond to an intense campaign. In the past, third-party candidates have done very well in Alaska. Nader got somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% there in 2000. If Obama can consolidate most of that vote, and the GOP suffers from its badly battered image from countless state scandals, Obama could yet put forth the best showing a Democratic Presidential candidate has made in Alaska in decades. But I highly doubt that even in a perfect storm, it'll be enough for Obama to win Alaska, particularly with the oil issue rising in prominence. Prediction: McCain by 10.
Colorado--There are three states that are almost impossible to call at this point, and Colorado is one of them. Obama's support among upper-middle class whites is slipping, which puts in jeopardy the suburban doughnut around Denver that he needs to win comfortably if he wants to turn this state blue. It didn't seem like a tall order two weeks ago, but it's looking increasingly so and I suspect McCain's childish but effective attack campaign will ultimately finish him off. Colorado looks like a classic bellwether this year, but I have to give a slight edge to McCain. Prediction: McCain by 2.
Florida--It seems incredibly unlikely that Obama can win in Florida. The selection of Joe Lieberman as McCain's running mate would completely finish Obama off, but it's highly unlikely Lieberman would even be needed. Florida's elderly voters are exactly the kind who will respond to GOP doubts raised about Obama, and exactly the kind where undecided voters will break against Obama the way Democratic primary voters did and the way Florida's general election voters broke Republican in 2000 and 2004. It won't even be close. Prediction: McCain by 8.
Georgia--Of the seven red states that the Obama campaign is targeting, only one of them strikes me as an irrational pipe dream....and that state is Georgia. The Obama campaign's calculation is that if they can get to 47%, native son Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will divide the conservative vote with McCain. But it's very unlikely that Barr will be that much of a factor in the end. If he gets even 3% in Georgia, I'd be incredibly surprised, particularly if the concern is raised that a vote for Barr is a vote for Obama. It certainly doesn't merit wasting resources in the expensive Atlanta media market. Georgia is getting more Republican every year, and it's often blamed on the rural "bubba" vote, but the reality is that the needle hasn't moved much with the bubbas in recent years. The needle has moved with the saturation of exurban yuppies of the hardest-core variety who live in the fast-growing Atlanta suburbs. And neither the bubbas or the corporate lap dogs will be voting for Obama in the kind of numbers necessary to lift him even to 47%. Prediction: McCain by 13.
Indiana--Never would I have guessed six months ago that Indiana would emerge as a potential swing state this election cycle (or any election cycle in my lifetime for that matter), but I've seen enough polling evidence to indicate that Obama's within striking distance there and that his campaign presence there is wise. Had Obama selected favorite son Evan Bayh as his running mate, I suspect we'd have a real contest in Indiana. Without Bayh on the ticket, I strongly suspect the state will fall back on traditional partisan allegiances, at least enough to assure McCain a fairly comfortable victory. Prediction: McCain by 9.
Iowa--Like most of the Upper Midwest and the northern Plains states, Iowa is an outlier in that its demographic groups would seem to indicate an easy victory for McCain, but where Obama is seeing significant gains over previous Democratic nominees. Although Obama is still vulnerable enough to lose the voters of Iowa, I see no evidence of it happening yet and will thus fall back on a comfortable Obama victory in November. Prediction: Obama by 4.
Maine--I have yet to see any polling numbers in Maine. It's assumed to be comfortably Democrat, but rarely is it a slam-dunk in national elections, particularly its northern Congressional district. With New Hampshire polling as closely as it is, I'm not yet convinced Maine won't prove to be reasonably close as well. Prediction: Obama by 6.
Massachusetts--It won't be a swing state, but unfavorable ethnic groups (read Irish Catholics) will ensure Obama with the weakest performance by a Democratic Presidential nominee in 20 years. Prediction: Obama by 9.
Michigan--Obama's an easy target in Michigan. Racial polarization is worse in Detroit than virtually anywhere else in America, and the white working-class voters of Macomb County are gonna be tremendously distrustful of voting for Obama, and a TV ad linking Obama to embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is likely to be the final nail in Obama's coffin in Michigan. Even beyond the race issue, the McCain campaign will hone in on Obama's promise to raise CAFE standards, a radioactive position in Detroit. On the surface, Romney's loose ties to Michigan probably won't help much if he's McCain's running mate, but a carefully calibrated economic message appealing to working-class whites will most likely assure Michigan will go from blue to red this fall. Obama's one potential saving grace.....the Upper Peninsula. They think like Wisconsin....they vote like Wisconsin. And Wisconsin continues to look like Obama country. If Obama can do 5-7 points better on the UP than Kerry did, it could offset the expected losses he'll incur in suburban Detroit. Probably not enough ultimately though. Prediction: McCain by 2.
Minnesota--I've seen enough evidence to recognize that Obama's lead has declined substantially in Minnesota. Why Minnesota and not Iowa or Wisconsin? Probably because there are far more yuppies in Minnesota....affluent white metro area suburbanites who appear, contrary to popular opinion that it's exclusively the white working class, to be Obama's weakest link. Particularly if McCain opts for Pawlenty as his running mate, Minnesota could very easily slip out of the Democrats' hands. But I'll have to see more poll evidence before I put my home state in the McCain column. It's teetering on the edge, but still leans narrowly Obama. Prediction: Obama by 2.
Mississippi--A lot of doe-eyed optimists fancied that MS's black population could put Obama over the top in what is arguably the most conservative state in America. The likelihood of higher proportional black turnout probably means the margin in Mississippi won't be as lopsided as usual, but keep in mind that already amazingly low 15% of whites that typically vote Democratic in Mississippi is almost certain to shrink even further with Obama as the Democratic nominee. In the end, it'll still be McCain by double digits. Prediction: McCain by 14.
Missouri--I was always skeptical of Obama's chances given how white and Southern the culture is everywhere between Kansas City and St. Louis. There was never any chance of Obama winning at least 100 of Missouri's 115 counties. but a really strong showing in suburban St. Louis, assisted by Obama being a known quantity due to the close proximity to Illinois, had the potential to put Missouri in play. But as appears to be happening everywhere, Obama's hold on upper middle-class suburbanites seems to be slipping. Even if he wins them back, it's hard to imagine Missouri going for Obama. Every place outside of metropolitan St. Louis is just too demographically hostile. Prediction: McCain by 7.
Montana--The Obama campaign continues to be bullish about this most unlikely state, and amazingly, it's hard to discount their optimism. All the polls are within the margin of error. Considering how cheap of a media market Montana is, they'd be fools not to hit this state hard. With all that said, Obama is not a comfortable fit for the libertarian-minded gunslingers of Montana. It won't take much effort on the part of McCain to make them realize that. Prediction: McCain by 5.
Nebraska--You don't hear much anymore about one or two of Nebraska's proportionally divided electoral votes being potential Obama pick-ups. Not surprising. It was never gonna happen. All three districts are way too crimson red. Prediction: McCain by 24.
Nevada--Like Colorado, it's too difficult to call Nevada with any degree of confidence at this stage of the race. Frankly, with its insane population growth and increasingly minority-heavy demographics, it's almost impossible to call Nevada ANY election cycle. For the most part, the polls have leaned McCain, but if there's a single state where the perennially disappointing outreach to register a groundswell of Democratic-leaning Latino voters is effective, Nevada would be the state. But when you factor that even when Obama was doing better than he is now in the national polls, he still wasn't doing very good business in Nevada, you have to assume that McCain will have the edge there in November. Prediction: McCain by 3.
New Hampshire--The third of three states I consider essentially too close to confidently call at this stage. Assuming that the late-deciding voters break against Obama as they did in the primary, however, one has to assume the McCain-friendly state of New Hampshire will do their boy proud one final time. Prediction: McCain by 2.
New Mexico--Polls are all over the place but generally lean to Obama. I cited before that I expect the current polling numbers showing Latinos heavily favoring Obama are flawed, and that will undoubtedly have an influence on New Mexico which has the most Latinos of any state in the country. It's a tough call, and I suspect this will once again be one of the closest states in the country, but I'll narrowly give the edge to Obama right now. But his lead is shakier than cafeteria Jell-o. Prediction: Obama by 1
North Carolina--The polls are all surprisingly close in a state where Kerry lost by double digits despite sharing the ticket with native son John Edwards. They're close enough to indicate that a significant number of whites have to be crossing over for Obama. Blacks could not get Obama within 3-5 points in the state on their own. All of this is encouraging for future election cycles, but it's almost certainly too soon for the demographic shift of to benefit Obama in 2008. Prediction: McCain by 7.
North Dakota--Another state that is undoubtedly surprising the hell out of just about everybody in that it appears close based on early polls. I scratch my head myself wondering where all of this crossover appeal is coming from, and can only include that McCain's hostility towards biofuels (and farm programs in general) are hurting him more than Obama is necessarily helping himself. In the end, McCain is likely to win comfortably, but it's certainly worth the resources for Obama to invest in this cheap media market and grow the electoral map in the process. Prediction: McCain by 7.
Ohio--When you do the math in Ohio, it's hard to see how Obama can win it, despite tied polls and the general perception that Ohio is once again the chief battleground state. I don't suspect it'll be that close unless Obama wins back the upper-middle class suburban vote that has been trending against him in the last couple of weeks, because he needs winning margins in traditionally Republican-leaning exurban counties surrounding Cleveland and Columbus to offset his almost certain loss of support versus Kerry in rural Ohio, particularly the Appalachian counties of southern and eastern Ohio. I just can't see how the arithmatic works out. Prediction: McCain by 5.
Oregon--Nobody is mentioning Oregon as a potential battleground state but there's no reason to believe it won't be. Obama would certainly seem to have an edge, but I suspect his victory in Oregon will be smalle than McCain's victory in many states that are deemed to be battlegrounds. Prediction: Obama by 5.
Pennsylvania--While every poll shows Obama with an advantage in Pennsylvania, his losing it is far from out of the question. One has to suspect that Obama's entire lead in PA is the product of robust strength in the affluent suburbs of Philadelphia....and that he's underperforming past Democrats everywhere outside of metropolitan Philly, particularly in southwestern Pennsylvania. If his numbers continue wobbling among the upper-income educated, McCain could win PA too. I'm leaning towards Obama holding it right now though. Prediction: Obama by 2.
South Dakota--I've only seen one poll in South Dakota and McCain was only leading by four, so it's worth including the state in this list. South Dakota is becoming more conservative with the yuppie culture of Sioux Falls far removed from its blue-collar meatpacking roots and with conservative tourism industry workers on the rise and populist farmers on the decline. It's not likely to be close....but probably CLOSER than anyone predicted. Prediction: McCain by 9.
Virginia--It would take a perfect storm for Obama to win Virginia. That was the case even when Obama was mopping the floor with McCain with suburbanite professionals. The margin Obama would need in northern Virginia to win statewide would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 points--better than Tim Kaine or Jim Webb--when factoring in the fact that he'll almost certainly underperform Gore and Kerry in the rural Shenandoah Valley of western Virginia. Polls are amazingly close, but I see absolutely no chance of the arithmatic working out for Obama. Prediction: McCain by 4.
Wisconsin--I've seen nothing to indicate that McCain is making inroads in Wisconsin. The final result will certainly not be the blowout that early polls suggested, but I'm still fairly confident Obama can win Wisconsin. Predicton: Obama by 4.
Final Tally...McCain 297, Obama 241
One final prediction: Most election years, there's a three-way competition for the "reddest state" in America between Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. This year, I'll go out on a limb and predict that Oklahoma goes stronger for McCain than any of those three states.
With that said, here's a look at how all the battleground, or even conceivable battleground, states are likely to tumble come November by my estimation...
Alaska--This is uncharted territory as Alaska has never been a battleground state before and it's tough to measure how voters there will respond to an intense campaign. In the past, third-party candidates have done very well in Alaska. Nader got somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% there in 2000. If Obama can consolidate most of that vote, and the GOP suffers from its badly battered image from countless state scandals, Obama could yet put forth the best showing a Democratic Presidential candidate has made in Alaska in decades. But I highly doubt that even in a perfect storm, it'll be enough for Obama to win Alaska, particularly with the oil issue rising in prominence. Prediction: McCain by 10.
Colorado--There are three states that are almost impossible to call at this point, and Colorado is one of them. Obama's support among upper-middle class whites is slipping, which puts in jeopardy the suburban doughnut around Denver that he needs to win comfortably if he wants to turn this state blue. It didn't seem like a tall order two weeks ago, but it's looking increasingly so and I suspect McCain's childish but effective attack campaign will ultimately finish him off. Colorado looks like a classic bellwether this year, but I have to give a slight edge to McCain. Prediction: McCain by 2.
Florida--It seems incredibly unlikely that Obama can win in Florida. The selection of Joe Lieberman as McCain's running mate would completely finish Obama off, but it's highly unlikely Lieberman would even be needed. Florida's elderly voters are exactly the kind who will respond to GOP doubts raised about Obama, and exactly the kind where undecided voters will break against Obama the way Democratic primary voters did and the way Florida's general election voters broke Republican in 2000 and 2004. It won't even be close. Prediction: McCain by 8.
Georgia--Of the seven red states that the Obama campaign is targeting, only one of them strikes me as an irrational pipe dream....and that state is Georgia. The Obama campaign's calculation is that if they can get to 47%, native son Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will divide the conservative vote with McCain. But it's very unlikely that Barr will be that much of a factor in the end. If he gets even 3% in Georgia, I'd be incredibly surprised, particularly if the concern is raised that a vote for Barr is a vote for Obama. It certainly doesn't merit wasting resources in the expensive Atlanta media market. Georgia is getting more Republican every year, and it's often blamed on the rural "bubba" vote, but the reality is that the needle hasn't moved much with the bubbas in recent years. The needle has moved with the saturation of exurban yuppies of the hardest-core variety who live in the fast-growing Atlanta suburbs. And neither the bubbas or the corporate lap dogs will be voting for Obama in the kind of numbers necessary to lift him even to 47%. Prediction: McCain by 13.
Indiana--Never would I have guessed six months ago that Indiana would emerge as a potential swing state this election cycle (or any election cycle in my lifetime for that matter), but I've seen enough polling evidence to indicate that Obama's within striking distance there and that his campaign presence there is wise. Had Obama selected favorite son Evan Bayh as his running mate, I suspect we'd have a real contest in Indiana. Without Bayh on the ticket, I strongly suspect the state will fall back on traditional partisan allegiances, at least enough to assure McCain a fairly comfortable victory. Prediction: McCain by 9.
Iowa--Like most of the Upper Midwest and the northern Plains states, Iowa is an outlier in that its demographic groups would seem to indicate an easy victory for McCain, but where Obama is seeing significant gains over previous Democratic nominees. Although Obama is still vulnerable enough to lose the voters of Iowa, I see no evidence of it happening yet and will thus fall back on a comfortable Obama victory in November. Prediction: Obama by 4.
Maine--I have yet to see any polling numbers in Maine. It's assumed to be comfortably Democrat, but rarely is it a slam-dunk in national elections, particularly its northern Congressional district. With New Hampshire polling as closely as it is, I'm not yet convinced Maine won't prove to be reasonably close as well. Prediction: Obama by 6.
Massachusetts--It won't be a swing state, but unfavorable ethnic groups (read Irish Catholics) will ensure Obama with the weakest performance by a Democratic Presidential nominee in 20 years. Prediction: Obama by 9.
Michigan--Obama's an easy target in Michigan. Racial polarization is worse in Detroit than virtually anywhere else in America, and the white working-class voters of Macomb County are gonna be tremendously distrustful of voting for Obama, and a TV ad linking Obama to embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is likely to be the final nail in Obama's coffin in Michigan. Even beyond the race issue, the McCain campaign will hone in on Obama's promise to raise CAFE standards, a radioactive position in Detroit. On the surface, Romney's loose ties to Michigan probably won't help much if he's McCain's running mate, but a carefully calibrated economic message appealing to working-class whites will most likely assure Michigan will go from blue to red this fall. Obama's one potential saving grace.....the Upper Peninsula. They think like Wisconsin....they vote like Wisconsin. And Wisconsin continues to look like Obama country. If Obama can do 5-7 points better on the UP than Kerry did, it could offset the expected losses he'll incur in suburban Detroit. Probably not enough ultimately though. Prediction: McCain by 2.
Minnesota--I've seen enough evidence to recognize that Obama's lead has declined substantially in Minnesota. Why Minnesota and not Iowa or Wisconsin? Probably because there are far more yuppies in Minnesota....affluent white metro area suburbanites who appear, contrary to popular opinion that it's exclusively the white working class, to be Obama's weakest link. Particularly if McCain opts for Pawlenty as his running mate, Minnesota could very easily slip out of the Democrats' hands. But I'll have to see more poll evidence before I put my home state in the McCain column. It's teetering on the edge, but still leans narrowly Obama. Prediction: Obama by 2.
Mississippi--A lot of doe-eyed optimists fancied that MS's black population could put Obama over the top in what is arguably the most conservative state in America. The likelihood of higher proportional black turnout probably means the margin in Mississippi won't be as lopsided as usual, but keep in mind that already amazingly low 15% of whites that typically vote Democratic in Mississippi is almost certain to shrink even further with Obama as the Democratic nominee. In the end, it'll still be McCain by double digits. Prediction: McCain by 14.
Missouri--I was always skeptical of Obama's chances given how white and Southern the culture is everywhere between Kansas City and St. Louis. There was never any chance of Obama winning at least 100 of Missouri's 115 counties. but a really strong showing in suburban St. Louis, assisted by Obama being a known quantity due to the close proximity to Illinois, had the potential to put Missouri in play. But as appears to be happening everywhere, Obama's hold on upper middle-class suburbanites seems to be slipping. Even if he wins them back, it's hard to imagine Missouri going for Obama. Every place outside of metropolitan St. Louis is just too demographically hostile. Prediction: McCain by 7.
Montana--The Obama campaign continues to be bullish about this most unlikely state, and amazingly, it's hard to discount their optimism. All the polls are within the margin of error. Considering how cheap of a media market Montana is, they'd be fools not to hit this state hard. With all that said, Obama is not a comfortable fit for the libertarian-minded gunslingers of Montana. It won't take much effort on the part of McCain to make them realize that. Prediction: McCain by 5.
Nebraska--You don't hear much anymore about one or two of Nebraska's proportionally divided electoral votes being potential Obama pick-ups. Not surprising. It was never gonna happen. All three districts are way too crimson red. Prediction: McCain by 24.
Nevada--Like Colorado, it's too difficult to call Nevada with any degree of confidence at this stage of the race. Frankly, with its insane population growth and increasingly minority-heavy demographics, it's almost impossible to call Nevada ANY election cycle. For the most part, the polls have leaned McCain, but if there's a single state where the perennially disappointing outreach to register a groundswell of Democratic-leaning Latino voters is effective, Nevada would be the state. But when you factor that even when Obama was doing better than he is now in the national polls, he still wasn't doing very good business in Nevada, you have to assume that McCain will have the edge there in November. Prediction: McCain by 3.
New Hampshire--The third of three states I consider essentially too close to confidently call at this stage. Assuming that the late-deciding voters break against Obama as they did in the primary, however, one has to assume the McCain-friendly state of New Hampshire will do their boy proud one final time. Prediction: McCain by 2.
New Mexico--Polls are all over the place but generally lean to Obama. I cited before that I expect the current polling numbers showing Latinos heavily favoring Obama are flawed, and that will undoubtedly have an influence on New Mexico which has the most Latinos of any state in the country. It's a tough call, and I suspect this will once again be one of the closest states in the country, but I'll narrowly give the edge to Obama right now. But his lead is shakier than cafeteria Jell-o. Prediction: Obama by 1
North Carolina--The polls are all surprisingly close in a state where Kerry lost by double digits despite sharing the ticket with native son John Edwards. They're close enough to indicate that a significant number of whites have to be crossing over for Obama. Blacks could not get Obama within 3-5 points in the state on their own. All of this is encouraging for future election cycles, but it's almost certainly too soon for the demographic shift of to benefit Obama in 2008. Prediction: McCain by 7.
North Dakota--Another state that is undoubtedly surprising the hell out of just about everybody in that it appears close based on early polls. I scratch my head myself wondering where all of this crossover appeal is coming from, and can only include that McCain's hostility towards biofuels (and farm programs in general) are hurting him more than Obama is necessarily helping himself. In the end, McCain is likely to win comfortably, but it's certainly worth the resources for Obama to invest in this cheap media market and grow the electoral map in the process. Prediction: McCain by 7.
Ohio--When you do the math in Ohio, it's hard to see how Obama can win it, despite tied polls and the general perception that Ohio is once again the chief battleground state. I don't suspect it'll be that close unless Obama wins back the upper-middle class suburban vote that has been trending against him in the last couple of weeks, because he needs winning margins in traditionally Republican-leaning exurban counties surrounding Cleveland and Columbus to offset his almost certain loss of support versus Kerry in rural Ohio, particularly the Appalachian counties of southern and eastern Ohio. I just can't see how the arithmatic works out. Prediction: McCain by 5.
Oregon--Nobody is mentioning Oregon as a potential battleground state but there's no reason to believe it won't be. Obama would certainly seem to have an edge, but I suspect his victory in Oregon will be smalle than McCain's victory in many states that are deemed to be battlegrounds. Prediction: Obama by 5.
Pennsylvania--While every poll shows Obama with an advantage in Pennsylvania, his losing it is far from out of the question. One has to suspect that Obama's entire lead in PA is the product of robust strength in the affluent suburbs of Philadelphia....and that he's underperforming past Democrats everywhere outside of metropolitan Philly, particularly in southwestern Pennsylvania. If his numbers continue wobbling among the upper-income educated, McCain could win PA too. I'm leaning towards Obama holding it right now though. Prediction: Obama by 2.
South Dakota--I've only seen one poll in South Dakota and McCain was only leading by four, so it's worth including the state in this list. South Dakota is becoming more conservative with the yuppie culture of Sioux Falls far removed from its blue-collar meatpacking roots and with conservative tourism industry workers on the rise and populist farmers on the decline. It's not likely to be close....but probably CLOSER than anyone predicted. Prediction: McCain by 9.
Virginia--It would take a perfect storm for Obama to win Virginia. That was the case even when Obama was mopping the floor with McCain with suburbanite professionals. The margin Obama would need in northern Virginia to win statewide would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 points--better than Tim Kaine or Jim Webb--when factoring in the fact that he'll almost certainly underperform Gore and Kerry in the rural Shenandoah Valley of western Virginia. Polls are amazingly close, but I see absolutely no chance of the arithmatic working out for Obama. Prediction: McCain by 4.
Wisconsin--I've seen nothing to indicate that McCain is making inroads in Wisconsin. The final result will certainly not be the blowout that early polls suggested, but I'm still fairly confident Obama can win Wisconsin. Predicton: Obama by 4.
Final Tally...McCain 297, Obama 241
One final prediction: Most election years, there's a three-way competition for the "reddest state" in America between Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. This year, I'll go out on a limb and predict that Oklahoma goes stronger for McCain than any of those three states.
posted by Mark at 3:27 PM
6 Comments:
I agree with most of your analysis, but disagree in some spots. For one, I think Obama will do better in Florida than you expect. I think he will likely do better than Kerry did in Miami-Dade, with its rapidly growing non-Cuban Hispanic population. This should be enough to offset possible erosion in senior heavy areas like Broward and Palm Beach and keep the margin at five points or less.
I agree that Virginia will be very tough. Obama is likely to do at least five or six points better than John Kerry in Northern Virginia, but I could easily see him doing much worse in the Southwestern corner(mostly the 9th Congressional district) as well as in the Shenendoah area(the 6th district). He should do better than Kerry, but I still think he loses by two or three points.
I also think Obama should be able to carry Michigan and him losing it would drastically upset his whole electoral strategy. The key is Oakland and Macomb counties. Obama needs to carry at least one of those two if he is going to carry the state. He can also afford no slippage in Detroit's Wayne county.
Mr. Phips, non-Cuban Hispanics vote in such small numbers that their effect on the election in a state like Florida, at least in 2008, will be insignificant. Now that it sounds like Pawlenty will be McCain's running mate, their won't be a Lieberman factor that will totally destroy Obama among elderly Jews, but I still think we're looking at 5+ points for McCain.
Given how close the polls are, I have to assume that Obama is pulling in the kinds of numbers in northern Virginia that Kaine and Webb did. I'm very impressed Obama's still in the game there, but still think it's too good to be true. Outside of rural Virginia, the Tidewater area (Norfolk, Virginia Beach) is also likely to have a specific connection to McCain given its heavy military influence. It's hard to see Obama mopping the floor up with McCain there. Overall it just seems like too tall of an order.
If Obama wins Oakland County, which is possible, he'll win Michigan. The arithmatic becomes almost impossible for McCain without Oakland County. Macomb County is almost certainly McCain country....probably by more than five points given its demographics. Ultimately I think a weak showing out of Oakland County will be the death knell for Obama in MI, brought on by the Detroit racial divide, the Kilpatrick scandal, and the CAFE standards issue.
As an aside, Obama will have no more than a one-day bounce from his convention before the second consecutive pro-John McCain month falls upon us. While I liked his speech tonight, it didn't seem like it will hold up to the cynical press analysis of the Friday evening commentariat.
Mark, you really think McCain is picking Pawlenty? I would have picked Romney, who would have likely helped in Michigan(RNC internals showed this).
The consensus among everybody tonight is that Pawlenty is the guy. Pawlenty cleared off his pre-existing schedule earlier today, so it's a 90+% chance it's him. Good news for Obama in Michigan....bad news for him in Minnesota.
Breaking news: McCain picks Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. The good news is it somewhat neutralizes McCain's main argument against Obama: inexperience. The possible bad news is it might draw some women voters still sore over Hillary.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/29/palin.republican.vp.candidate/index.html
McCain-Nixon signs are all over Missouri mark.
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