House Seats I Expect To Turnover
Here's my very early list of predicted House seat turnovers for 2010. It's still too early to declare anybody absolutely safe or anybody certain to succumb to defeat. At this time in 2006, everybody thought Jim Gerlach and Chris Shays were finished. But at the same time nobody thought Curt Weldon, Gil Gutknecht, Jeb Bradley, or Jim Ryun could be defeated. In other words, there are likely to be surprises both in which incumbents hang on and in which incumbents don't realize they have a race on their hands until days or even minutes before the votes are counted. Just ask Nassau County Executive, er private citizen, Tom Suozzi, a prime example of a trend I expect to see with a number of House races this fall unless the political climate changes dramatically.
First of all, Democratic pickups....
1. LA-02 (Joseph Cao)
2. DE-AL (open-Mike Castle)
I'm on the borderline with IL-10. Democrat Dan Seals definitely has the name advantage, but with native son Mark Kirk running up the score in that district in the Senate race in what I expect will be a Republican year in the Chicago suburbs, I have to give a narrow advantage to the Republican challenger. As for HI-02, Hawaii loves incumbents. Once Djou wins on Saturday, he'll do as all Hawaii incumbents do and hold onto the seat virtually uncontested until he's 106 years old.
Now onto the lengthier list of Republican pickups....
1. AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
2. AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
3. AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
4. AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
5. AR-01 (open-Marion Berry)
6. AR-02 (open-Vic Snyder)
7. AR-04 (Mike Ross)
8. CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
9. CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
10. CO-03 (John Salazar)
11. CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
12. CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
13. CT-04 (Jim Himes)
14. FL-02 (Allen Boyd)
15. FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
16. FL-22 (Ron Klein)
17. FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
18. GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
19. GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
20. GA-12 (John Barrow)
21. HA-01 (open-Neil Abercrombie)
22. ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
23. IL-08 (Melissa Bean)
24. IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
25. IL-14 (Bill Foster)
26. IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
27. IN-08 (open-Brad Ellsworth)
28. IN-09 (Baron Hill)
29. IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
30. KS-03 (open-Dennis Moore)
31. KY-03 (John Yarmuth)
32. KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
33. LA-03 (open-Charlie Melancon)
34. MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
35. MA-05 (Niki Tsongas)
36. MA-06 (John Tierney)
37. MA-10 (open-William Delahunt)
38. MI-01 (open-Bart Stupak)
39. MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
40. MI-09 (Gary Peters)
41. MN-01 (Tim Walz)
42. MS-01 (Travis Childers)
43. MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
44. MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
45. NV-01 (Shelley Berkeley)
46. NV-03 (Dina Titus)
47. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)
48. NH-02 (open-Paul Hodes)
49. NJ-03 (John Adler)
50. NM-02 (Harry Teague)
51. NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
52. NY-02 (Steve Israel)
53. NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
54. NY-23 (Bill Owens)
55. NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)
56. NY-29 (open-Eric Massa)
57. NC-02 (Bob Etheridge)
58. NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
59. NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
60. NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
61. ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
62. OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)
63. OH-06 (Charlie Wilson)
64. OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
65. OH-16 (John Boccieri)
66. OH-18 (Zack Space)
67. OR-05 (Kurt Schraeder)
68. PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
69. PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
70. PA-07 (open-Joe Sestak)
71. PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
72. PA-10 (Chris Carney)
73. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
74. PA-12 (open-John Murtha)
75. PA-17 (Tim Holden)
76. SC-05 (John Spratt)
77. SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
78. TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
79. TN-06 (open-Bart Gordon)
80. TN-08 (open-John Tanner)
81. TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
82. TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
83. UT-02 (Jim Matheson)
84. VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
85. VA-05 (Tom Perriello)
86. VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
87. VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
88. WA-03 (open--Brian Baird)
89. WV-01 (open--Alan Mollohan)
90. WV-03 (Nick Rahall)
91. WI-07 (open-David Obey)
92. WI-08 (Steve Kagen)
Without breaking a sweat, I've come up with 92 seats that I believe are odds-on to swing to the GOP in the prevailing political climate. Sure, there are a few controversial calls here. Will Jim Matheson and Tim Holden get washed away in the tide in their Republican-leaning districts as I predicted? Will the minority turnout show up to save incumbents like Sanford Bishop and Shelley Berkeley who I'm predicting tumble? Will the lack of credible GOP statewide challengers in New York save Democrats on Long Island and Staten Island? My gut says no.
But on the other hand, I'm predicting red district Democrats like Dan Boren and Collin Peterson hang on because of conservative voting records and a lack of top-tier or second-tier challenger, but can they survive a massive red tide? I've also given the benefit of the doubt to purple district incumbents like Rick Larsen and Chris Murphy who could easily be among the surprise casualties of a wave election who never see it coming when the 2006 equivalent of Carol Shea-Porter surges to the finish ahead of them.
Honestly, I challenge anybody to come up with a realistic prediction map in which the Democrats lose less than 40 House seats in this toxic climate.
First of all, Democratic pickups....
1. LA-02 (Joseph Cao)
2. DE-AL (open-Mike Castle)
I'm on the borderline with IL-10. Democrat Dan Seals definitely has the name advantage, but with native son Mark Kirk running up the score in that district in the Senate race in what I expect will be a Republican year in the Chicago suburbs, I have to give a narrow advantage to the Republican challenger. As for HI-02, Hawaii loves incumbents. Once Djou wins on Saturday, he'll do as all Hawaii incumbents do and hold onto the seat virtually uncontested until he's 106 years old.
Now onto the lengthier list of Republican pickups....
1. AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
2. AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
3. AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
4. AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
5. AR-01 (open-Marion Berry)
6. AR-02 (open-Vic Snyder)
7. AR-04 (Mike Ross)
8. CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
9. CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
10. CO-03 (John Salazar)
11. CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
12. CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
13. CT-04 (Jim Himes)
14. FL-02 (Allen Boyd)
15. FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
16. FL-22 (Ron Klein)
17. FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
18. GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
19. GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
20. GA-12 (John Barrow)
21. HA-01 (open-Neil Abercrombie)
22. ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
23. IL-08 (Melissa Bean)
24. IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
25. IL-14 (Bill Foster)
26. IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
27. IN-08 (open-Brad Ellsworth)
28. IN-09 (Baron Hill)
29. IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
30. KS-03 (open-Dennis Moore)
31. KY-03 (John Yarmuth)
32. KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
33. LA-03 (open-Charlie Melancon)
34. MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
35. MA-05 (Niki Tsongas)
36. MA-06 (John Tierney)
37. MA-10 (open-William Delahunt)
38. MI-01 (open-Bart Stupak)
39. MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
40. MI-09 (Gary Peters)
41. MN-01 (Tim Walz)
42. MS-01 (Travis Childers)
43. MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
44. MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
45. NV-01 (Shelley Berkeley)
46. NV-03 (Dina Titus)
47. NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)
48. NH-02 (open-Paul Hodes)
49. NJ-03 (John Adler)
50. NM-02 (Harry Teague)
51. NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
52. NY-02 (Steve Israel)
53. NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
54. NY-23 (Bill Owens)
55. NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)
56. NY-29 (open-Eric Massa)
57. NC-02 (Bob Etheridge)
58. NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
59. NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
60. NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
61. ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
62. OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)
63. OH-06 (Charlie Wilson)
64. OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
65. OH-16 (John Boccieri)
66. OH-18 (Zack Space)
67. OR-05 (Kurt Schraeder)
68. PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
69. PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
70. PA-07 (open-Joe Sestak)
71. PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
72. PA-10 (Chris Carney)
73. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
74. PA-12 (open-John Murtha)
75. PA-17 (Tim Holden)
76. SC-05 (John Spratt)
77. SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
78. TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
79. TN-06 (open-Bart Gordon)
80. TN-08 (open-John Tanner)
81. TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
82. TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
83. UT-02 (Jim Matheson)
84. VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
85. VA-05 (Tom Perriello)
86. VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
87. VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
88. WA-03 (open--Brian Baird)
89. WV-01 (open--Alan Mollohan)
90. WV-03 (Nick Rahall)
91. WI-07 (open-David Obey)
92. WI-08 (Steve Kagen)
Without breaking a sweat, I've come up with 92 seats that I believe are odds-on to swing to the GOP in the prevailing political climate. Sure, there are a few controversial calls here. Will Jim Matheson and Tim Holden get washed away in the tide in their Republican-leaning districts as I predicted? Will the minority turnout show up to save incumbents like Sanford Bishop and Shelley Berkeley who I'm predicting tumble? Will the lack of credible GOP statewide challengers in New York save Democrats on Long Island and Staten Island? My gut says no.
But on the other hand, I'm predicting red district Democrats like Dan Boren and Collin Peterson hang on because of conservative voting records and a lack of top-tier or second-tier challenger, but can they survive a massive red tide? I've also given the benefit of the doubt to purple district incumbents like Rick Larsen and Chris Murphy who could easily be among the surprise casualties of a wave election who never see it coming when the 2006 equivalent of Carol Shea-Porter surges to the finish ahead of them.
Honestly, I challenge anybody to come up with a realistic prediction map in which the Democrats lose less than 40 House seats in this toxic climate.
posted by Mark at 10:06 AM
14 Comments:
Are you on crack Mark?
NY-02? That was district gerrymandered to cut out every Republican precinct in Nassau county to give Peter King a safe seat.
Dennis Cardoza? Another seat that was drawn to cut out every Republican precinct in the area and there is no credible challenger to speak of.
CO-07 is a district that Democratic statewide candidates will carry even if they lose by 10 points.
GA-02 is a black majority district that will be carried easily by Roy Barnes in the governors race. Same with GA-12.
John Yarmuth sits in a seat that even Al Gore and John freakin Kerry won in KENUTCKY!! Not to mention that Obama won here by 56%-43%.
And right, Tsongas and Tierney are going to lose in Massachussetts to no name teabagger Republicans.
And Shelley Berkley? That is an inner city Vegas district that Harry Reid will carry by 10 points even if he gets blown out statewide.
The North Carolina Democrats dont have credible opponents.
That is thirteen seats that you better take off here now if you ever want to be viewed seriously again.
Sara, I am in Scott Murphy's district and he will not lose. He has a no name teabagger Republican running against him who almost nobody pays attention to.
Regarding HI-01, Mississippi loves its incumbents too and you are still predicting Djou to hold on forever, even after he has to vote for a 23% sales tax and Medicare and Social Security phase-outs.
sara, you even went further than I did with New York. While your scenario is certainly possible, what motivation do Republicans in New York have to come out and vote if neither Cuomo, Schumer, nor Gillibrand gets a top-tier challenger as it now looks like? Unless a high-profile Republican capable of winning makes it on the ballot, I don't see Hall or Murphy going down. Perhaps Mr. Phips is right about Israel too, but more than the others, his district seems like the exact kind of wealthy suburban district ripe for realigning back to the party of fiscal conservatives, or at least pseudo-fiscal conservatives, in the post-Bush era.
Outside of New York, a number of your predictions seem irrationally exuberant to me. Are the Democrats really gonna hold open seats in AR-01, TN-08, KS-03, and MI-01 in this climate? I can't imagine a scenario where they would. And Bobby Bright, Alan Grayson, and Tom Perriello hang on? I'd definitely bet against those three.
mr. phips...
NY-02 is the perfect profile of an affluent suburban district poised to realign with the party of "fiscal conservatism" in the post-Bush era. I might be a little out on the limb predicting Israel's demise, but if Suozzi can be taken out on Long Island, Israel certainly can.
Cardoza...I know his district was gerrymandered to be Democratic-majority, yet Kerry still lost it in a high turnout year. This year, I can't see much motivation for the Latinos in the district to head to the polls.
CO-07 is the kind of district that was blue only because they hated Bush. It'll revert to a classic swing district status in the post-Bush era, and in a Republican-leaning year like this one, the GOP will get it.
GA-02 is majority black, but turnout won't be strong among blacks this year. Bishop may hang on, but Barrow is definitely a goner. He barely hung on in the last low-turnout midterm in the wildly Democratic year of 2006. Why would he be invincible now?
High black turnout boosted Obama's numbers in KY-03 in 2008. Expect a more traditional close race in 2010 (much like Gore and Kerry's narrow victories) only in a more Republican year due to turnout lower than the Presidential level enjoyed in the Gore and Kerry years.
Even a top Democratic Party strategist in Massachusetts said last week the only chance Niki Tsongas has at winning re-election is if a strong independent candidate ciphons off enough of the protest vote. You are seriously underestimating the level of backlash going on in Massachusetts right now.
Shelley Berkeley needs a high Latino turnout to win, and right now it looks like a Republican tsunami in Nevada.
The North Carolina Democrats in conservative districts DON'T NEED serious challengers any more than Cao needs one in LA-02. They're conservative districts in a Republican year. At least a few of them will be felled.
Not all of those 13 will go, but I'm betting a few not on my list (or anybody's) will in their stead.
If Sara is right about a massive Republican year in New York, then Anthony Weiner in getting-more-Republican-by-the-day NY-09 could conceivably be taken out.
There will always be ebbs and flows in the "generic advantage" and right now Democrats have gotten a couple point bounce for undefined reasons. It won't last. To paraphrase the guy you said you'd vote for, John McCain, the fundamentals of the Democratic majority are terrible. Unless there is tangible evidence of surging job growth, a dramatic decrease in the unemployment rate, and reports of lower-than-projected federal deficits, the Democrats are poised to be on the receiving end of a landslide.
Tom Suozzi won the part of Nassau in NY-02 by a decent sized margin. It was the territory in Peter King's district that killed him.
John Barrow almost lost in 2006 because he was facing popular former Congressman Tom Burns who outraised him. This year, he isnt facing anybody close to that caliber.
There is no serious challenger to Cardoza, whose district is drawn to be almost impossible for a Republican to win.
Who is the strategist in Massachussetts who says Tsongas cant win? Pat Cadell, who voted for Bush twice and now advises Republicans?
Shelley Berkley will not lose in NV-01. Obama won there two to one and even weak candidates like Jack Carter won there against John Ensign in 2006. There simply are not enough Repubicans voters in that district to win it.
If the election is anywhere near as bad as you say it will be, Obama will be forced from office by his own party by New Years. The last time a party had an election this bad was 1932, which ended the Republican party in US politics until 1994.
I agree with you Sarah. I am sticking with my prediction of a 27 seat loss for Democrats. Democrats would have to simply throw the election by not running any turnout operations or ad campaigns to have an election anything like what Mark is predicting. I actually think that people like Minnick, Childers, and Bright will surprise people by surviving as they have voted against Democrats on almost every issue.
Mr. Phips, I guess it wasn't a Democratic strategist that predicted Tsongas' demise, it was Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos. But check the article out for yourself. It's not good. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/politics/14tsongas.html
You said "There is no serious challenger to Cardoza, whose district is drawn to be almost impossible for a Republican to win."
Well, with one gigantic exception....George Bush. Oh...and Bill Simon in 2002. And Arnold Schwarzenegger...twice...by double digits. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_18th_congressional_district
You say "The last time a party had an election this bad was 1932, which ended the Republican party in US politics until 1994."
Huh? They controlled Congress for much of the 1940s and 50s. And during that timeframe they controlled the Presidency for 28 years of that tenure. As I've been saying, unless an America that works for the average joe is reborn and some economic security is restored in people's lives, expect violent swings in Congressional leadership every 2-4 years for the foreseeable future. No single bad election cycle will "end" either party. There are only two parties and neither of them will ever reign supreme with an electorate as fickle as ours.
Republicans controlled Congress for most of the 1940's and 1950's? Thats news to me. They held fluke majorities for two terms(1947-1948 and 1953-1954) and the three Republican Presidents(Ike, Nixon, and Ford) were to the left of Barack Obama.
sara, in the first few weeks after the health care passage, Republican numbers actually improved. Aside from nominally good news about the job market, there has been little to justify why the Democrats' situation has fundamentally changed heading into November. Remember as late as the weekend before the 2006 election, the Democrats double-digit generic Congressional advantage declined to five points. In 1994, final weekend polling showing indicated Democrats were making a comeback in the generic advantage polls. Neither panned out. The point is that the generic advantage numbers will bounce around quite a bit in the months ahead, but until I see lasting, sustainable movement towards Democrats after Labor Day during heavy campaign season, I'm betting on a GOP landslide of 1946 proportions.
In 1946, Republicans only gained 55seats. Not the 88 freakin seats you are projecting.
That's a good point about CA-18. Bush was quite popular with Hispanics(for a Republican) in 2004. And Mark is wrong about Bill Simon carrying this district in 2002. Gray Davis carried it by 51%-40% and this was with Green party candidate Peter Camejo picking up 3% districtwide.
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2002_general/ssov/gov_cong.pdf
Right. If Critz can win here by 10%, Democrats should be able to hold traditionally Democratic open seats like AR-01, TN-08, and certainly WI-07. Again, I am predicting a loss of 27, but that could go down.
In 1994, Democrats lost two long held Democratic seats each by 55%-45% around this time.
Yes, the Critz victory was a pleasant surprise and suggest, at the very least, that even the seats that are perceived as most vulnerable might still be winnable for Democrats.
I would definitely caution against reading this race as a bellwether of what's gonna have in Arkansas and Tennessee in a general election, however. Not only did Critz have the advantage of facing off on the day of a hotly contested Democratic primary, he also benefited from a massive GOTV effort by unions that contributed to an even more disproportionately Democratic electorate. My bet is the electorate of November 2, 2010, in PA-12 will elect Tim Burns.
I seem to remember four years ago at this time, the CA-50 special election between Francine Busby and Brian Bilbray was held up as some sort of bellwether on whether it was practical for Democrats to win back Congress in November 2006. Republicans were cocky and breathed a huge sigh of relief when Bilbray prevailed thinking the threat of a Democratic insurgency was overrated. My guess is that those who believe the Mark Critz victory represents Democratic Party stability will be proven just as wrong as those who believe Brian Bilbray circa 2006 represented Republican Party stability.
Mark, Brian Bilbray won by just 49%-46% in a district far more Republican(R+5) than PA-12 is Democratic(R+1) and only after his opponent was caught telling a group of illegal immigrants that they didnt need to be American citizens to vote there the weekend before the election.
PA-12 is exactly the kind of traditionally Democratic, rural and blue collar seat(like TN-08, AR-01, WV-01, and OH-18) that Republicans are going to need to win 30+ seats let alone take the House.
If John Kerry had won CA-50 in 2004, I would have agreed with you about the Bilbray special election.
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