What Good Are They?

I'm a hardcore Democratic partisan. Voting for a candidate without a (D) next to his or her name is almost unthinkable for me. I'll be voting for Democratic candidates in on November 2, but not for lack of trying on the part of current Democratic officeholders who seem hellbent on keeping me home.

Why am I so disillusioned? The spectacle yesterday with Speaker Pelosi making a motion to adjourn the session so that her members could go back to their districts to campaign. The fact that the House Democratic supermajority was unable to unite around canceling the Bush tax cuts for the rich was pitiful enough, but the fact that 39 members of Pelosi's caucus voted against her motion to adjourn--on the grounds that they should stick around to PASS rather than deny tax cuts to millionaires before the election--was arguably the most disgusting move by the "Blue Dogs" since they took over Congress. And given their proclivity for unimaginable cowardice, that's a pretty low bar for them to slither under.

The whole thing reeked of a stunt, with exactly the number of House Democrats voting against adjournment in order to force Pelosi to break the tie. Exactly 39 of them. If they could have gotten just one more, the motion to adjourn would have failed, but lo and behold they couldn't get that 40th vote. You don't suppose Pelosi was giving these assholes cover to say they "stood up to House leadership in favor of tax relief for Americans" during the final stretch of their campaigns, do you?

Whatever the case, this sad sack of lawmakers gives us precious little reason to justify sending them back to Washington less than five weeks before the election. The level of cowardice and lack of organization is worse than I ever imagined, and I'm questioning my previous position of the utility of these Blue Dogs. What good is a numerical majority if dozens in your ranks will ALWAYS betray you and snuggle up with the other side on EVERY major vote?

And the issue here is tax cuts for the rich at a time where American business is already flush with money that it's sitting on waiting for consumer demand to pick up....not to mention a time when we're looking at ruinous budget deficits in the not-so-distant future. Every Congressional Republican favors borrowing a trillion dollars from the Chinese to give the already-affluent $100,000 tax cuts. That's to be expected from the pachyderms. But dozens of Democrats agree with this position?!? And not only do they agree with it, they agree with it so strongly that they're insisting the House not adjourn until these tax cuts for the rich on borrowed money go through?!? Well fuck them. Fuck them in the eye.

Given that no matter how Democrats we have in Congress, we'll always have a de facto Republican majority. With that in mind, officially losing the House to the other side is the best-case scenario for the future of the Democratic Party. In 2012, Obama and his party will not have sole ownership of the mess we'll still be festering in if the Republicans have a majority. In the unlikely event that the Democrats hang onto a Congressional majority in five weeks, they'll go into 2012 looking at an even bloodier election night. After this week's spectacle, the Democrats deserve to lose the House...and it's hard for me to hope they don't given the long-range dynamic.

House Predictions

When I made my first predictions about the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives last spring, I predicted a net gain of 90 seats for the Republican Party. Since that time I realize that my initial prediction was ridiculous....it was far too low. As toxic as electoral conditions were last June, they're infinitely worse now, and every indication is they'll only get worse yet in the next six weeks.

There are a number of factors guiding my theory that things will be far worse for House Democrats than what even the most bullish GOP operatives believe. First and foremost, the national anti-incumbent mood is unprecedented. Recent polls show that voters intend to dump THEIR OWN CONGRESSMAN this year by a nearly 2-1 margin. That tells me that the polls are understating just how bloody of a night November 2 is going to be for the party that holds the most House seats. It also tells me that scores of Congressmen who are being told by everybody that their seats are safe, and who are on virtually nobody's endangered list currently, will be on the receiving end of a stunning upset on election night. Indeed, polls in the last couple of weeks have been released showing several long-thought-safe Democratic incumbents below 50% and holding five-point leads over Republican challengers with 5% name recognition. This represents Armageddon for Democrats, as my list of seats poised to turnover suggests....

Turning Over From Republican to Democrat....

DE-AL (open--Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Hard to imagine Cao can survive in a D+25 district, but I won't even rest on this one until I see polling showing that Cao's an assured goner.

Turning Over From Democrat to Republican....

1. AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
2. AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
3. AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
4. AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
5. AR-01 (open--Marion Berry)
6. AR-02 (open--Vic Snyder)
7. AR-04 (Mike Ross)
8. CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
9. CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
10. CA-20 (Jim Costa)
11. CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
12. CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
13. CO-03 (John Salazar)
14. CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
15. CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
16. CT-04 (Jim Himes)
17. CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
18. FL-02 (Allen Boyd)
19. FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
20. FL-22 (Ron Klein)
21. FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
22. GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
23. GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
24. GA-12 (John Barrow)
25. ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
26. IL-03 (Dan Lipinski)
27. IL-08 (Melissa Bean)
28. IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
29. IL-14 (Bill Foster)
30. IL-17 (Phil Hare)
31. IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
32. IN-08 (open--Brad Ellsworth)
33. IN-09 (Baron Hill)
34. IA-01 (Bruce Braley)
35. IA-02 (Dave Loebsack)
36. IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
37. KS-03 (Dennis Moore)
38. KY-03 (John Yarmuth)
39. KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
40. LA-03 (open--Charlie Melancon)
41. ME-01 (Chelie Pingree)
42. ME-02 (Michael Michaud)
43. MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
44. MA-05 (Niki Tsongas)
45. MA-06 (John Tierney)
46. MA-10 (open--William Delahunt)
47. MI-01 (open--Bart Stupak)
48. MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
49. MI-08 (Gary Peters)
50. MN-01 (Tim Walz)
51. MN-08 (Jim Oberstar)
52. MS-01 (Travis Childers)
53. MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
54. MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
55. MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
56. NV-03 (Dina Titus)
57. NH-01 (Carol Shea Porter)
58. NH-02 (open--Paul Hodes)
59. NJ-03 (Jim Adler)
60. NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
61. NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
62. NM-02 (Harry Teague)
63. NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
64. NY-02 (Steve Israel)
65. NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
66. NY-19 (John Hall)
67. NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
68. NY-23 (Bill Owens)
69. NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)
70. NY-25 (Dan Maffei)
71. NY-29 (open--Eric Massa)
72. NC-02 (Bob Etheridge)
73. NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
74. NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
75. NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
76. ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
77. OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)
78. OH-06 (Charlie Wilson)
79. OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
80. OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
81. OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
82. OH-16 (John Boccieri)
83. OH-18 (Zack Space)
84. OR-04 (Peter DeFazio)
85. OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
86. PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
87. PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
88. PA-07 (open--Joe Sestak)
89. PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
90. PA-10 (Chris Carney)
91. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
92. PA-12 (Mark Critz)
93. PA-17 (Tim Holden)
94. RI-01 (open--Patrick Kennedy)
95. RI-02 (Jim Langevin)
96. SC-05 (John Spratt)
97. SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
98. TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
99. TN-06 (open--Bart Gordon)
100. TN-08 (John Tanner)
101. TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
102. TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
103. UT-02 (Jim Matheson)
104. VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
105. VA-05 (Tom Perriello)
106. VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
107. VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
108. WA-02 (Rick Larsen)
109. WA-03 (open--Brian Baird)
110. WV-01 (open--Alan Mollohan)
111. WV-03 (Nick Rahall)
112. WI-03 (Ron Kind)
113. WI-07 (open--David Obey)
114. WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

So there you go. A net loss of the Democrats of 112 seats. And frankly I suspect they'll hang on by the skin of their teeth in a number of other races, including Blue Dogs Collin Peterson and Dan Boren in their respective districts, along with a number of incumbents that are in only modestly Democratic districts and probably think right now, erroneously, that November 2 will be smooth sailing for them....incumbents like Raul Grijalva, Adam Smith, and Anthony Weiner. They'll survive...but barely.

Obviously these losses will be the result of a once-in-a-lifetime tsunami. A good many of these seats will revert back to the Democrats in 2012, but of course a number of them will stay in Republican hands forever. Whatever the case, I suspect the bleak picture I paint will become clearer as the final weeks of the campaign approach. More and more polls will come out showing increasing numbers of House Democrats in imminent peril, many of them who fancied themselves untouchable.

And for those who believe that the tide will turn back the other way in a mere six weeks, the only example I can think of where that has happened was 1998 in the midst of the Clinton impeachment scandal when the GOP overreached. Generally speaking, when a party loses momentum in the final weeks before an election, the damage is done. Recall how in 2006 it was still unclear in mid-September whether Democrats would even be able to win the 15 seats needed to take back the House let alone the Senate. But in the week before the election, virtually nobody believed the Republicans would still be able to hang onto the House as a number of seats that were in question moved dramatically against them in the final days. We're starting seeing the same thing happening in polls across the country right now, and things are almost certain to get dramatically worse.

Republicans Won't Need Delaware To Win Back The Senate.....

The Republicans are gonna win back the United States Senate in November....and they'll win it with seats to spare. As usual, the conventional wisdom accepted by both Democrats and Republicans is wrong here. Mike Castle's defeat in the GOP primary on Tuesday did not kill the GOP's chances of retaking the Senate. There's better-than-anybody-expects odds that it didn't even kill their chances in the Delaware Senate race. Voters are heading into the 2010 midterm election in a unified temper tantrum, and the result will be a Democratic wipeout of historic proportions, the magnitude of which virtually nobody sees coming, even the most bullish GOP operatives.

Let's take another look at this year's Senate contests in the final seven weeks before election day...

Alabama--Richard Shelby wins by the biggest margin of his career.

Alaska--I just heard minutes ago that Lisa Murkowski is moving forward with a write-in campaign after losing the nomination last month to Tea Party wingnut Joe Miller. While this is the only scenario is which Democrat Scott McAdams can possibly win in Alaska, I still think the effort will be a short-lived failure. It reeks of sour grapes and I suspect the pressure will be on by the national Republican Party for her to bow out well before the election. Even if that doesn't happen, I suspect Murkowski's write-in effort yields less than 10% of the vote, and that won't be enough distance for McAdams to beat Miller, or even to really come that close.

Arizona--John McCain gets more than 75% of the vote.

Arkansas--In November 2008, I thought Barack Obama's 20-point defeat in Arkansas marked the inevitable low-water mark for a Democrat even in modern-day Arkansas. I no longer believe that to be the case, and expect John Boozman to trounce Blanche Lincoln by at least 25 points. I think Bill Halter would have done narrowly better if he was the nominee, but in a year like this I still can't see him getting within a mile of a single-digit defeat. GOP +1

California--This is a very tough call, but I still think Boxer will narrowly eke it out. Fiorina strikes me as a tough sell as a candidate in a state as blue as California, despite her self-funding capabilities. It's easy to envision a Scott Brown-style Republican candidate toppling Boxer, but I just don't think Fiorina will get the job done. She will, however, get within two points and win 20-point victories in a number of central California counties that Obama won just two years ago.

Colorado--Ken Buck is often bunched in with the craziest candidates of the Tea Party, but he's clearly not in the same league as Sharron Angle despite some unfortunate misogynistic comments he made during the primary. The guy is Ivy League-educated and a generally mainstream political figure. I completely disagree with him on the issues, but the point is the Democrats aren't gonna have any success branding him as a wingnut. And I think the lack of a competitive gubernatorial race at this stage will suppress turnout and make it even harder for Michael Bennet to overcome Buck's thus far modest advantage. In the end, Buck should win with a comfortable high single-digit margin. GOP +2

Connecticut--I'm reversing course on this one. I underestimated the extent to which Linda McMahon's personal fortune could finance a transformation of her image and buy her way into being taken seriously...particularly against a weakened Democratic challenger. Blumenthal hangs onto a narrow lead, Martha Coakley style, but it'll be gone by election day. McMahon will prevail. GOP +3

Delaware--Nobody thinks Christine O'Donnell has a chance of winning. I don't think she'll win, but her meteoric rise and subsequent mainstream derision will be accompanied by a persecution complex that will have some traction despite her sketchy personal history and nutty policy positions. So here we have a candidate who is very likely to be facing felony charges of misusing campaign funds, yet will probably come within three points of victory in November.

Florida--The Democrats' sole hope of stopping Marco Rubio died when Kendrick Meek won the Democratic nomination, ensuring the non-Rubio vote would be split between he and Crist. There was no way Rubio was gonna get less than 40%, so barring Meek getting out of the race (not gonna happen), Rubio will prevail by a double-digit margin and will immediately become the face of the Republican Party and an epic problem for Democrats.

Georgia--Johnny Isaakson scoots in for a second term by a 2-1 margin

Hawaii--Dan Inouye is a rare breed...a safe Democrat unlikely to lose in November.

Illinois--Both candidates are wildly unpopular so the contest will be a classic race to the bottom with very low voter turnout. Unfortunately in this Republican year, Democratic turnout will be more suppressed, meaning Mark Kirk is the very likely bet to take Barack Obama's Senate seat. Illinois has become a next-to-impossible state for a Republican to win, but Kirk will pull it off. GOP +4

Indiana--This seat had the potential to become a contest given the vulnerabilities of Republican Dan Coats, but if generally impressive Democratic candidate Brad Ellsworth was gonna catch on, he would have had to have done it by now. Very unfortunate situation to lose this rising star in such a toxic year, as Coats will assuredly win in a 20-point blowout. GOP +5

Iowa--Same prediction as this spring....Chuck Grassley win have his lowest margin in decades, but will still win by double digits, perhaps 20 points.

Kansas--Jerry Moran could run one of the highest margins of victory of any candidate in the country, particularly for an open seat.

Kentucky--It looked early on as though the Democrats might be able to define Rand Paul as such a wingnut that he wouldn't even be able to win in Kentucky. But the first impression didn't last and Paul is breaking away with what looks like a probable double-digit victory. If impressive Democratic challenger Jack Conway had been our nominee in 2008, Mitch McConnell would not currently be poised to take over as the Senate leader. You picked a horrible year to run, Jack.

Louisiana--Charlie Melancon really picked the wrong year to run. The bottom line is that in the post-Obama era, a Democrat is unlikely to win another statewide election in Louisiana for a generation....even up against a pervert like Vitter, poised to win by more than 20 points this November simply because he doesn't have a (D) next to his name.

Maryland--I'm a little nervous resting easy about this race since I haven't seen any polls, but I do feel more comfortable in Democrat Barbara Mikulski prevailing in her re-election bid than I do just about any other Democratic incumbent.

Missouri--In 2008, even as John McCain was narrowly beating Obama, a Senate matchup between Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt would have resulted in a double-digit Carnahan landslide. My how much difference two years make. In 2010, the baggage-adled Blunt is poised to score the double-digit victory.

Nevada--As soon as Democrats got cocky upon seeing uber-wingnut Sharron Angle's lead in the polls evaporate last month, I knew they were popping the champagne bottles too soon. It's tough to predict whether Angle will be able to control herself from saying anything completely unhinged between now and November 2, but I'm betting she does and that she wins by a good 4-5 points against Harry Reid. GOP +6

New Hampshire--Hard to imagine Paul Hodes' lifeless campaign would be able to catch on now. Even a weakened Kelly Ayotte should be able to comfortably prevail.

New York 1--Chuck Schumer will have one of the few 20-point winning margins for Democratic Senate incumbents this year.

New York 2--The next upset in the making. Remember the last northeastern Republican Senate candidate with "American Idol" connections? Richard Dio Guardi will come from behind to take down the imminently vulnerable but thus far under-the-radar Kirsten Gillibrand in Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat. GOP +7

North Carolina--As suspected, in this political environment, Richard Burr is pulling comfortably ahead of Elaine Marshall despite his serious vulnerability. In the end, his margin of victory is very likely to be in the double digits.

North Dakota--The freebie takeover seat for the GOP. Popular Republican Governor John Hoeven easily wins Byron Dorgan's old seat. GOP +8

Ohio--I held out a little hope that the state most battered by the loss of manufacturing jobs would not be dumb enough to elect Bush's outsourcing captain Rob Portman to the Senate, but it looks like I was wrong. They are indeed that dumb. To be fair though, Democratic candidate Lee Fisher hasn't given voters much to work with.

Oklahoma--I had forgotten that Tom Coburn was even up this year until now. Seemed like even in right-wing Oklahoma there was some hope that a conservative Democrat might be able to take this guy out. Instead, I'm not even sure he has a challenger.

Oregon--I was holding my breath hoping that Democrat Ron Wyden was as secure as the conventional wisdom was, but the most recent poll had him leading by double digits, so I'm reasonably confident he'll be a rare incumbent Democrat who prevails.

Pennsylvania--Another reversal for me. I thought Pat Toomey was too conservative for Pennsylvania last spring, but he's pulling away from thus far unimpressive Democratic challenger Joe Sestak. Right now, I'm kind of wishing feisty pit bull Arlen Specter was still our nominee. Seems like he'd be putting up more of a fight than Sestak, who looks poised to lose by at least five points at this stage. GOP +9

South Carolina--Jim DeMint may have been able to be held down to 10 points if the Democrats weren't running a candidate less electable than Christine O'Donnell.

South Dakota--John Thune has no Democratic opponent. He wins.

Utah--Obviously the Republican Mike Lee wins by 40 points.

Vermont--Pat Leahy will be another rare Democratic incumbent to win handily

Washington--My gut says Dino Rossi doesn't have quite enough to topple Patty Murray in this blue state. It'll be damn close though and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it goes the other way.

West Virginia--I knew this was too good to be true. No matter how much West Virginians may like Joe Manchin as Governor, they hate Barack Obama as President more and there was no way they were gonna elect an Obama ally to the Senate in this environment. Once Republican John Raese gets done with him, Joe Manchin will probably lose by double digits. GOP +10

Wisconsin--I first speculated on Russ Feingold's possible vulnerability last year and was laughed out of the room by the Daily Kos crowd. One month removed from driving through Wisconsin and seeing all Republican yard signs dotting the landscape in counties that Barack Obama won with 63% of the vote, I now suspect that not only will Feingold lose, he'll lose by double-digits...to a plastics manufacturer who believes that global warming is caused by sunspots. GOP +11

I'm going easy on the Democrats here, predicting they'll hang on to California and Washington despite a once-in-a-century Republican tsunami. The reality is the GOP has the potential to pick up 14 seats counting Delaware. Next week I'll cover the House, where things will be even worse for Democrats.