Republicans Won't Need Delaware To Win Back The Senate.....
The Republicans are gonna win back the United States Senate in November....and they'll win it with seats to spare. As usual, the conventional wisdom accepted by both Democrats and Republicans is wrong here. Mike Castle's defeat in the GOP primary on Tuesday did not kill the GOP's chances of retaking the Senate. There's better-than-anybody-expects odds that it didn't even kill their chances in the Delaware Senate race. Voters are heading into the 2010 midterm election in a unified temper tantrum, and the result will be a Democratic wipeout of historic proportions, the magnitude of which virtually nobody sees coming, even the most bullish GOP operatives.
Let's take another look at this year's Senate contests in the final seven weeks before election day...
Alabama--Richard Shelby wins by the biggest margin of his career.
Alaska--I just heard minutes ago that Lisa Murkowski is moving forward with a write-in campaign after losing the nomination last month to Tea Party wingnut Joe Miller. While this is the only scenario is which Democrat Scott McAdams can possibly win in Alaska, I still think the effort will be a short-lived failure. It reeks of sour grapes and I suspect the pressure will be on by the national Republican Party for her to bow out well before the election. Even if that doesn't happen, I suspect Murkowski's write-in effort yields less than 10% of the vote, and that won't be enough distance for McAdams to beat Miller, or even to really come that close.
Arizona--John McCain gets more than 75% of the vote.
Arkansas--In November 2008, I thought Barack Obama's 20-point defeat in Arkansas marked the inevitable low-water mark for a Democrat even in modern-day Arkansas. I no longer believe that to be the case, and expect John Boozman to trounce Blanche Lincoln by at least 25 points. I think Bill Halter would have done narrowly better if he was the nominee, but in a year like this I still can't see him getting within a mile of a single-digit defeat. GOP +1
California--This is a very tough call, but I still think Boxer will narrowly eke it out. Fiorina strikes me as a tough sell as a candidate in a state as blue as California, despite her self-funding capabilities. It's easy to envision a Scott Brown-style Republican candidate toppling Boxer, but I just don't think Fiorina will get the job done. She will, however, get within two points and win 20-point victories in a number of central California counties that Obama won just two years ago.
Colorado--Ken Buck is often bunched in with the craziest candidates of the Tea Party, but he's clearly not in the same league as Sharron Angle despite some unfortunate misogynistic comments he made during the primary. The guy is Ivy League-educated and a generally mainstream political figure. I completely disagree with him on the issues, but the point is the Democrats aren't gonna have any success branding him as a wingnut. And I think the lack of a competitive gubernatorial race at this stage will suppress turnout and make it even harder for Michael Bennet to overcome Buck's thus far modest advantage. In the end, Buck should win with a comfortable high single-digit margin. GOP +2
Connecticut--I'm reversing course on this one. I underestimated the extent to which Linda McMahon's personal fortune could finance a transformation of her image and buy her way into being taken seriously...particularly against a weakened Democratic challenger. Blumenthal hangs onto a narrow lead, Martha Coakley style, but it'll be gone by election day. McMahon will prevail. GOP +3
Delaware--Nobody thinks Christine O'Donnell has a chance of winning. I don't think she'll win, but her meteoric rise and subsequent mainstream derision will be accompanied by a persecution complex that will have some traction despite her sketchy personal history and nutty policy positions. So here we have a candidate who is very likely to be facing felony charges of misusing campaign funds, yet will probably come within three points of victory in November.
Florida--The Democrats' sole hope of stopping Marco Rubio died when Kendrick Meek won the Democratic nomination, ensuring the non-Rubio vote would be split between he and Crist. There was no way Rubio was gonna get less than 40%, so barring Meek getting out of the race (not gonna happen), Rubio will prevail by a double-digit margin and will immediately become the face of the Republican Party and an epic problem for Democrats.
Georgia--Johnny Isaakson scoots in for a second term by a 2-1 margin
Hawaii--Dan Inouye is a rare breed...a safe Democrat unlikely to lose in November.
Illinois--Both candidates are wildly unpopular so the contest will be a classic race to the bottom with very low voter turnout. Unfortunately in this Republican year, Democratic turnout will be more suppressed, meaning Mark Kirk is the very likely bet to take Barack Obama's Senate seat. Illinois has become a next-to-impossible state for a Republican to win, but Kirk will pull it off. GOP +4
Indiana--This seat had the potential to become a contest given the vulnerabilities of Republican Dan Coats, but if generally impressive Democratic candidate Brad Ellsworth was gonna catch on, he would have had to have done it by now. Very unfortunate situation to lose this rising star in such a toxic year, as Coats will assuredly win in a 20-point blowout. GOP +5
Iowa--Same prediction as this spring....Chuck Grassley win have his lowest margin in decades, but will still win by double digits, perhaps 20 points.
Kansas--Jerry Moran could run one of the highest margins of victory of any candidate in the country, particularly for an open seat.
Kentucky--It looked early on as though the Democrats might be able to define Rand Paul as such a wingnut that he wouldn't even be able to win in Kentucky. But the first impression didn't last and Paul is breaking away with what looks like a probable double-digit victory. If impressive Democratic challenger Jack Conway had been our nominee in 2008, Mitch McConnell would not currently be poised to take over as the Senate leader. You picked a horrible year to run, Jack.
Louisiana--Charlie Melancon really picked the wrong year to run. The bottom line is that in the post-Obama era, a Democrat is unlikely to win another statewide election in Louisiana for a generation....even up against a pervert like Vitter, poised to win by more than 20 points this November simply because he doesn't have a (D) next to his name.
Maryland--I'm a little nervous resting easy about this race since I haven't seen any polls, but I do feel more comfortable in Democrat Barbara Mikulski prevailing in her re-election bid than I do just about any other Democratic incumbent.
Missouri--In 2008, even as John McCain was narrowly beating Obama, a Senate matchup between Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt would have resulted in a double-digit Carnahan landslide. My how much difference two years make. In 2010, the baggage-adled Blunt is poised to score the double-digit victory.
Nevada--As soon as Democrats got cocky upon seeing uber-wingnut Sharron Angle's lead in the polls evaporate last month, I knew they were popping the champagne bottles too soon. It's tough to predict whether Angle will be able to control herself from saying anything completely unhinged between now and November 2, but I'm betting she does and that she wins by a good 4-5 points against Harry Reid. GOP +6
New Hampshire--Hard to imagine Paul Hodes' lifeless campaign would be able to catch on now. Even a weakened Kelly Ayotte should be able to comfortably prevail.
New York 1--Chuck Schumer will have one of the few 20-point winning margins for Democratic Senate incumbents this year.
New York 2--The next upset in the making. Remember the last northeastern Republican Senate candidate with "American Idol" connections? Richard Dio Guardi will come from behind to take down the imminently vulnerable but thus far under-the-radar Kirsten Gillibrand in Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat. GOP +7
North Carolina--As suspected, in this political environment, Richard Burr is pulling comfortably ahead of Elaine Marshall despite his serious vulnerability. In the end, his margin of victory is very likely to be in the double digits.
North Dakota--The freebie takeover seat for the GOP. Popular Republican Governor John Hoeven easily wins Byron Dorgan's old seat. GOP +8
Ohio--I held out a little hope that the state most battered by the loss of manufacturing jobs would not be dumb enough to elect Bush's outsourcing captain Rob Portman to the Senate, but it looks like I was wrong. They are indeed that dumb. To be fair though, Democratic candidate Lee Fisher hasn't given voters much to work with.
Oklahoma--I had forgotten that Tom Coburn was even up this year until now. Seemed like even in right-wing Oklahoma there was some hope that a conservative Democrat might be able to take this guy out. Instead, I'm not even sure he has a challenger.
Oregon--I was holding my breath hoping that Democrat Ron Wyden was as secure as the conventional wisdom was, but the most recent poll had him leading by double digits, so I'm reasonably confident he'll be a rare incumbent Democrat who prevails.
Pennsylvania--Another reversal for me. I thought Pat Toomey was too conservative for Pennsylvania last spring, but he's pulling away from thus far unimpressive Democratic challenger Joe Sestak. Right now, I'm kind of wishing feisty pit bull Arlen Specter was still our nominee. Seems like he'd be putting up more of a fight than Sestak, who looks poised to lose by at least five points at this stage. GOP +9
South Carolina--Jim DeMint may have been able to be held down to 10 points if the Democrats weren't running a candidate less electable than Christine O'Donnell.
South Dakota--John Thune has no Democratic opponent. He wins.
Utah--Obviously the Republican Mike Lee wins by 40 points.
Vermont--Pat Leahy will be another rare Democratic incumbent to win handily
Washington--My gut says Dino Rossi doesn't have quite enough to topple Patty Murray in this blue state. It'll be damn close though and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it goes the other way.
West Virginia--I knew this was too good to be true. No matter how much West Virginians may like Joe Manchin as Governor, they hate Barack Obama as President more and there was no way they were gonna elect an Obama ally to the Senate in this environment. Once Republican John Raese gets done with him, Joe Manchin will probably lose by double digits. GOP +10
Wisconsin--I first speculated on Russ Feingold's possible vulnerability last year and was laughed out of the room by the Daily Kos crowd. One month removed from driving through Wisconsin and seeing all Republican yard signs dotting the landscape in counties that Barack Obama won with 63% of the vote, I now suspect that not only will Feingold lose, he'll lose by double-digits...to a plastics manufacturer who believes that global warming is caused by sunspots. GOP +11
I'm going easy on the Democrats here, predicting they'll hang on to California and Washington despite a once-in-a-century Republican tsunami. The reality is the GOP has the potential to pick up 14 seats counting Delaware. Next week I'll cover the House, where things will be even worse for Democrats.
Let's take another look at this year's Senate contests in the final seven weeks before election day...
Alabama--Richard Shelby wins by the biggest margin of his career.
Alaska--I just heard minutes ago that Lisa Murkowski is moving forward with a write-in campaign after losing the nomination last month to Tea Party wingnut Joe Miller. While this is the only scenario is which Democrat Scott McAdams can possibly win in Alaska, I still think the effort will be a short-lived failure. It reeks of sour grapes and I suspect the pressure will be on by the national Republican Party for her to bow out well before the election. Even if that doesn't happen, I suspect Murkowski's write-in effort yields less than 10% of the vote, and that won't be enough distance for McAdams to beat Miller, or even to really come that close.
Arizona--John McCain gets more than 75% of the vote.
Arkansas--In November 2008, I thought Barack Obama's 20-point defeat in Arkansas marked the inevitable low-water mark for a Democrat even in modern-day Arkansas. I no longer believe that to be the case, and expect John Boozman to trounce Blanche Lincoln by at least 25 points. I think Bill Halter would have done narrowly better if he was the nominee, but in a year like this I still can't see him getting within a mile of a single-digit defeat. GOP +1
California--This is a very tough call, but I still think Boxer will narrowly eke it out. Fiorina strikes me as a tough sell as a candidate in a state as blue as California, despite her self-funding capabilities. It's easy to envision a Scott Brown-style Republican candidate toppling Boxer, but I just don't think Fiorina will get the job done. She will, however, get within two points and win 20-point victories in a number of central California counties that Obama won just two years ago.
Colorado--Ken Buck is often bunched in with the craziest candidates of the Tea Party, but he's clearly not in the same league as Sharron Angle despite some unfortunate misogynistic comments he made during the primary. The guy is Ivy League-educated and a generally mainstream political figure. I completely disagree with him on the issues, but the point is the Democrats aren't gonna have any success branding him as a wingnut. And I think the lack of a competitive gubernatorial race at this stage will suppress turnout and make it even harder for Michael Bennet to overcome Buck's thus far modest advantage. In the end, Buck should win with a comfortable high single-digit margin. GOP +2
Connecticut--I'm reversing course on this one. I underestimated the extent to which Linda McMahon's personal fortune could finance a transformation of her image and buy her way into being taken seriously...particularly against a weakened Democratic challenger. Blumenthal hangs onto a narrow lead, Martha Coakley style, but it'll be gone by election day. McMahon will prevail. GOP +3
Delaware--Nobody thinks Christine O'Donnell has a chance of winning. I don't think she'll win, but her meteoric rise and subsequent mainstream derision will be accompanied by a persecution complex that will have some traction despite her sketchy personal history and nutty policy positions. So here we have a candidate who is very likely to be facing felony charges of misusing campaign funds, yet will probably come within three points of victory in November.
Florida--The Democrats' sole hope of stopping Marco Rubio died when Kendrick Meek won the Democratic nomination, ensuring the non-Rubio vote would be split between he and Crist. There was no way Rubio was gonna get less than 40%, so barring Meek getting out of the race (not gonna happen), Rubio will prevail by a double-digit margin and will immediately become the face of the Republican Party and an epic problem for Democrats.
Georgia--Johnny Isaakson scoots in for a second term by a 2-1 margin
Hawaii--Dan Inouye is a rare breed...a safe Democrat unlikely to lose in November.
Illinois--Both candidates are wildly unpopular so the contest will be a classic race to the bottom with very low voter turnout. Unfortunately in this Republican year, Democratic turnout will be more suppressed, meaning Mark Kirk is the very likely bet to take Barack Obama's Senate seat. Illinois has become a next-to-impossible state for a Republican to win, but Kirk will pull it off. GOP +4
Indiana--This seat had the potential to become a contest given the vulnerabilities of Republican Dan Coats, but if generally impressive Democratic candidate Brad Ellsworth was gonna catch on, he would have had to have done it by now. Very unfortunate situation to lose this rising star in such a toxic year, as Coats will assuredly win in a 20-point blowout. GOP +5
Iowa--Same prediction as this spring....Chuck Grassley win have his lowest margin in decades, but will still win by double digits, perhaps 20 points.
Kansas--Jerry Moran could run one of the highest margins of victory of any candidate in the country, particularly for an open seat.
Kentucky--It looked early on as though the Democrats might be able to define Rand Paul as such a wingnut that he wouldn't even be able to win in Kentucky. But the first impression didn't last and Paul is breaking away with what looks like a probable double-digit victory. If impressive Democratic challenger Jack Conway had been our nominee in 2008, Mitch McConnell would not currently be poised to take over as the Senate leader. You picked a horrible year to run, Jack.
Louisiana--Charlie Melancon really picked the wrong year to run. The bottom line is that in the post-Obama era, a Democrat is unlikely to win another statewide election in Louisiana for a generation....even up against a pervert like Vitter, poised to win by more than 20 points this November simply because he doesn't have a (D) next to his name.
Maryland--I'm a little nervous resting easy about this race since I haven't seen any polls, but I do feel more comfortable in Democrat Barbara Mikulski prevailing in her re-election bid than I do just about any other Democratic incumbent.
Missouri--In 2008, even as John McCain was narrowly beating Obama, a Senate matchup between Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt would have resulted in a double-digit Carnahan landslide. My how much difference two years make. In 2010, the baggage-adled Blunt is poised to score the double-digit victory.
Nevada--As soon as Democrats got cocky upon seeing uber-wingnut Sharron Angle's lead in the polls evaporate last month, I knew they were popping the champagne bottles too soon. It's tough to predict whether Angle will be able to control herself from saying anything completely unhinged between now and November 2, but I'm betting she does and that she wins by a good 4-5 points against Harry Reid. GOP +6
New Hampshire--Hard to imagine Paul Hodes' lifeless campaign would be able to catch on now. Even a weakened Kelly Ayotte should be able to comfortably prevail.
New York 1--Chuck Schumer will have one of the few 20-point winning margins for Democratic Senate incumbents this year.
New York 2--The next upset in the making. Remember the last northeastern Republican Senate candidate with "American Idol" connections? Richard Dio Guardi will come from behind to take down the imminently vulnerable but thus far under-the-radar Kirsten Gillibrand in Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat. GOP +7
North Carolina--As suspected, in this political environment, Richard Burr is pulling comfortably ahead of Elaine Marshall despite his serious vulnerability. In the end, his margin of victory is very likely to be in the double digits.
North Dakota--The freebie takeover seat for the GOP. Popular Republican Governor John Hoeven easily wins Byron Dorgan's old seat. GOP +8
Ohio--I held out a little hope that the state most battered by the loss of manufacturing jobs would not be dumb enough to elect Bush's outsourcing captain Rob Portman to the Senate, but it looks like I was wrong. They are indeed that dumb. To be fair though, Democratic candidate Lee Fisher hasn't given voters much to work with.
Oklahoma--I had forgotten that Tom Coburn was even up this year until now. Seemed like even in right-wing Oklahoma there was some hope that a conservative Democrat might be able to take this guy out. Instead, I'm not even sure he has a challenger.
Oregon--I was holding my breath hoping that Democrat Ron Wyden was as secure as the conventional wisdom was, but the most recent poll had him leading by double digits, so I'm reasonably confident he'll be a rare incumbent Democrat who prevails.
Pennsylvania--Another reversal for me. I thought Pat Toomey was too conservative for Pennsylvania last spring, but he's pulling away from thus far unimpressive Democratic challenger Joe Sestak. Right now, I'm kind of wishing feisty pit bull Arlen Specter was still our nominee. Seems like he'd be putting up more of a fight than Sestak, who looks poised to lose by at least five points at this stage. GOP +9
South Carolina--Jim DeMint may have been able to be held down to 10 points if the Democrats weren't running a candidate less electable than Christine O'Donnell.
South Dakota--John Thune has no Democratic opponent. He wins.
Utah--Obviously the Republican Mike Lee wins by 40 points.
Vermont--Pat Leahy will be another rare Democratic incumbent to win handily
Washington--My gut says Dino Rossi doesn't have quite enough to topple Patty Murray in this blue state. It'll be damn close though and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it goes the other way.
West Virginia--I knew this was too good to be true. No matter how much West Virginians may like Joe Manchin as Governor, they hate Barack Obama as President more and there was no way they were gonna elect an Obama ally to the Senate in this environment. Once Republican John Raese gets done with him, Joe Manchin will probably lose by double digits. GOP +10
Wisconsin--I first speculated on Russ Feingold's possible vulnerability last year and was laughed out of the room by the Daily Kos crowd. One month removed from driving through Wisconsin and seeing all Republican yard signs dotting the landscape in counties that Barack Obama won with 63% of the vote, I now suspect that not only will Feingold lose, he'll lose by double-digits...to a plastics manufacturer who believes that global warming is caused by sunspots. GOP +11
I'm going easy on the Democrats here, predicting they'll hang on to California and Washington despite a once-in-a-century Republican tsunami. The reality is the GOP has the potential to pick up 14 seats counting Delaware. Next week I'll cover the House, where things will be even worse for Democrats.
posted by Mark at 4:51 PM
8 Comments:
Yeah, right. Gillibrand and Blumenthal are going to lose. You keep kidding yourself on that.
In seriousness, Democrats had their big wipeout in 1994, just 16 years ago. Republicans last had one in 1974. When will it be the Democrats' turn again?
And ill be the first to predict that when Feingold loses, he'll turn around and challenge Obama in the 2012 primaries. You heard it hear first.
Too many people are missing the trees for the forest this election. Just predicting a Dem wipeout nationwide based on Obama's unpopularity and Scott Brown's election seems naive to me, plus looking at individual states seems much more interesting anyway.
Just because Scott Brown won in Massachusetts does not automatically mean a Republican exactly like him, much less Whitman or Fiorina, can win in California, even if the Dem is Coakley-like. On the surface, California and Massachusetts are blue states, though inside those blue surfaces, things are very different.
Massachusetts has been stagnant the last few decades and is dominated by ethnic whites, and Obama actually slightly underperformed in 2008, while he improved dramatically in growing, diversifying California. There is a clear trend to the Democrats in California, while there is a very slight GOP trend in Massachusetts. (Interesting that native son Kerry did not improve on Gore.)
Massachusetts
1996: D+11.27
2000: D+14.21
2004: D+14.25
2008: D+11.75
California
1996: D+3.78
2000: D+4.21
2004: D+6.11
2008: D+7.44
Here are my current predictions.
Governor: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showComment.do?commentId=171965
Senate: http://www.swingstateproject.com/showComment.do?commentId=169531
The House is a tougher call, so I am going to wait until late October before I make my predictions there.
Sarah, I question why you still have Indiana as a "hold" when all of the evidence says that Ellsworth will get pasted by close to what John Kerry did in 2004(59%-39%).
I feel that Ellsworth will win, in spite of these September (not November) polls showing him way back, because to me, localization is the key. Ellsworth seems to be closer to localizing the campaign than Dan "I prefer North Carolina" Coats.
New York Senator Richard Dio Guardi and Connecticut Senator Linda McMahon. You heard it here first!
Interesting prediction on Feingold primarying Obama....I'll give you that much. Let me ask you this. In a race between Feingold and Palin, would you vote for Palin based on your "the Presidency doesn't matter" philosophy?
sara, are you speaking generally about the California-Massachusetts comparison? Because I picked Boxer to win California. I agree that the electorates of California and Massachusetts differ, and that's part of the reason I'm calling for Boxer to narrowly hang on.
Beyond that, is it just me or are you sticking with your same predictions from last spring? I think you have to adjust with the times. Brad Ellsworth has about as much chance of winning a Senate seat in 2010 as John Murtha. Your optimism about the nature of that race made sense in the spring, but we're six weeks away from an election here with Democratic momentum moving decidedly backwards. It's almost impossible to imagine a scenario where some of the seats you predict to flip can do so at this stage.
The only out there prediction I agree with you on is Feingold losing.
And yes, I would vote for Palin in 2012. I will no longer vote for Democrats at the Presidential level because everytime a Democrat wins the White House, the party gets destroyed.
I wont volunteer for Palin, but I will volunteer for Romney in the primary, and would volunteer for Huckabee and Romney if either got the nomination. Especially Huckabee, since I think he makes sense on most issues, save for his idiotic support for the "Fair Tax".
If Huckabee had won the 2008 Republican nomination, I had long planned to vote for him in the general election.
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