Early Look At 2012 Senate Races
Perhaps it's pointless to get too far in the weeds on the 2012 Congressional races 11 months before the election, particularly when the field isn't even set in most states, but my modus operandi is nothing if not pointless so I'm giving it a whirl anyway. Just as is the case with the Presidential election, the Democratic Party's success or failure in the Senate races has more to do with what Angela Merkel does in Germany than what Barack Obama or John Boehner do in America, as if Europe falls next week and America has a 13% unemployment rate next November as a result, voters will unjustly spank the Democratic Party next fall. But if Europe holds off from self-destructing until either after our election or before it does any serious damage to us, the Democrats stand poised to get a strong majority of the overall votes in this year's Senate races.
That's the good news for Democrats. But the fact that they hold 23 of the 33 Senate races up this year means they get a 57% popular vote in the Senate races this year but still lose the four seats they need to hold to hang onto the Senate, particularly when three of their most vulnerable seats are in bright red states where Obama will be a drag at the top of the ticket.
Arizona--Theoretically, the Democrats got a great recruit in former Surgeon General Richard Carmona to face off against likely Republican nominee Jeff Flake to fill the open seat left behind by retiring Republican Jon Kyl, but Carmona has been an indecisive and reluctant candidate who stammered about his decision to run for months leading up to his ultimate decision last month. That doesn't bode particularly well for the kind of campaign he plans to run, and given that he has no experience as a politician, it's far from clear whether he's gonna be able to go toe to toe with the well-spoken Flake, or even if he'll impress enough to secure the nomination from fellow Democrat Don Bivens. This is the kind of race that's too soon to get a comfortable feel for, but given what we know today, I have to give the edge to Flake. Prediction: Republican hold.
California--Democrat Diane Feinstein will not only win big next year, she'll get more votes than any other Democratic Senate candidate in any state in the country ever. All indications are the 78-year-old Feinstein plans to run for a fourth full term, and given that the more controversial Barbara Boxer won by nine points against a strong challenger in the toxic political year of 2010, it's hard to imagine anybody in the Republican field giving Feinstein a serious challenge. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Connecticut--If Republican voters were smart enough to nominate former Congressman Chris Shays, they'd have a very good chance at picking up Joe Lieberman's open seat....just like if they had the brains to nominate Rob Simmons in 2010, they'd probably have one more Senate seat right now. But the smart money is that Connecticut Republicans will once again forfeit a seat to Democrats by nominating wrestling baroness Linda McMahon, the same terrible candidate who got her clock cleaned last year. Congressman Chris Murphy is the most likely Democratic nominee and unless he's a rotten candidate, should be able to take advantage of McMahon's weakness. Otherwise, only a huge Republican wave brought upon by a bruising double-dip recession could make McMahon competitive here. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Delaware--Two-term Democratic incumbent Tom Carper should effortlessly get a third term. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Florida--Another race where it's way too soon to call definitively. Two-term Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson has always been the kind of guy who generates few strong feelings either way, and there's little doubt that had he been up in 2010 he would have been defeated. But 2012 may be a different story. There are a flurry of Republican candidates but the smart money now is on Connie Mack, current Congressman and the son of the former Senator. The Mack name is gold in Florida Republican circles and promises to make this a competitive race, particularly if the economy sours again. But in a neutral environment, I have to give a little bit of an edge to Nelson because he seems like a harmless enough Democrat for Florida voters to keep around to give a little bit of balance in their increasingly right-leaning politics. Just a gut feeling for now, but whatever the case Mack is unlikely to be as much of a pushover for Nelson as Katherine Harris was in 2006. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Hawaii--Yet another race that seems likely to be competitive in the most unlikely of states. Retiring Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka leaves an open seat that will be current Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono's to lose (barring an unlikely nomination of Ed Case in the primary), particularly with favorite son Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. But Republicans aren't going down without a fight and have nominated former Governor Linda Lingle. Lingle stands to benefit from the deep unpopularity of her Democratic successor in the Hawaii statehouse. Still, the partisan tide in Hawaii coupled with Obama's presence on the ticket make it hard to imagine Lingle will prevail without some glaring missteps by Hirono (or Case). Prediction: Democratic hold.
Indiana--If this was 2010, long-time incumbent Richard Lugar would probably be felled in the primary by conservative Richard Mourdock. But in 2012, I think Lugar will prevail in the primary, and then dominate in the general election. It's a shame that Democrats are poised to squander a second great statewide Senate candidate this year with Congressman Joe Donnelly, but that's almost certain if his opponent is Lugar. If Mourdock prevails, the race is a toss-up, but I'm inclined to think the GOP would still have a slight advantage unless Obama decides to strongly contest Indiana again, which doesn't seem likely. Prediction: Republican hold.
Maine--Looking more and more like Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe is gonna dodge a bullet here. She has nothing but clowns running up against her in the Republican primary. That may have been enough to take her down in 2010, but I don't think it's a gamble Maine Republicans will be willing to take in 2012. Anything is possible still....one of the Some Dudes in the primary could catch on among conservatives, but it seems odds-against now, and if the popular moderate Snowe prevails in the primary, she's a cinch to win the general election. Prediction: Republican hold.
Maryland--I can't envision a scenario where a Republican can win a statewide race in more-Democratic-by-the-day Maryland in the foreseeable future. That's good news for Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin who should have a slam-dunk re-election. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Massachusetts--Six months ago, I thought Scott Brown owned this seat the way Olympia Snowe owns her seat in Maine, but it's become clear he hasn't established himself yet with Massachusetts voters based on his very vulnerable poll numbers. Factor in the Democrats' top-tier recruit with Elizabeth Warren and all signs point to a very precarious re-election fight for Brown. Brown is by no means out of the race, but if the political conversation continues to be dominated by inequality and the sins of Wall Street, Warren will prevail in deep-blue Massachusetts. Prediction: Democratic pickup. Dems +1
Michigan--Some candidates seem to be getting very lucky this election cycle, and one of them is Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is theoretically vulnerable and would most likely have been felled if she ran in 2010. But she lacks a strong Republican challenger and I ultimately think Obama's role in saving the Michigan auto industry, amidst passionate Republican cries to let automobile manufacturing in America come to an end, will work to the Democrats' advantage next year. Stabenow is not yet out of the woods, but things are leaning her direction for now. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Minnesota--Things would really have to go badly for Democrats for incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar to become vulnerable. Her Republican challengers are either third-tier or fourth-tier and every potentially competitive challenger has taken a pass on the race. The only word of warning I can offer for Democrats is that this is Minnesota....where the last time an incumbent Senator looked as secure as Klobuchar does today was Rudy Boschwitz in 1990, and we all know how that ended. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Mississippi--Republican Roger Wicker has been about as anonymous of a GOP backbencher as anyone else in the country over the last four years but being a Republican wallflower is all one needs to score a comfortable win in Mississippi, particularly with the radioactive Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Prediction: Republican hold.
Missouri--My prognosis of this race hasn't changed since earlier this year. I can't imagine a scenario where Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill can win with Obama on the ballot. Missouri's hard-right turn seems poised to have staying power particularly with less minority growth than the rest of the country to offset the wholesale shift of the state's working-class whites to the furthest-right reaches of the GOP. I'm not sure whether Sarah Steelman or Todd Akin will get the Republican nomination, but I feel secure in predicting that whichever of them does get the nomination will be Missouri's next Senator. Prediction: Republican pickup
Montana--The fact that Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg already holds small leads in every available poll does not bode well for incumbent Democrat Jon Tester. And I don't believe Tester is doing himself any favors by suddenly becoming a reliable vote AGAINST his party even on popular issues. There are certain districts and states where it makes some sense for a Democrat to think his best bet is to always be on the other side of most issues as Obama and his party's leadership, but I don't think Montana is one of those states. Montana has a substantial left-of-center Democratic base that Tester is gonna need next year. He's far more likely to keep those voters sufficiently motivated by being a good-faith Democrat than he is by trying to win over the conservative rancher from Miles City who currently leans Rehberg. Either way though, a second term for Tester is a longshot. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +1
Nebraska--If Ben Nelson hadn't embarrassed himself and his state with the Cornhusker Kickback deal in the health care bill, he'd probably win re-election. But since he did, I don't think that genie can be put back into the bottle. There's absolutely zero margin for error for a Democrat in Nebraska, and Ben Nelson misread his constituents and made a huge error. However much Democrats try to ease their minds by the fact that Nelson isn't trailing his hypothetical GOP challengers now by as much as he was a few months ago, he's toast. Once the ads about the Cornhusker Kickback start playing by his challenger, Nelson will decline again. The current competitive poll numbers are probably only good for convincing Nelson to run again rather than retire. I'm normally lenient towards red-state Democrats who challenge party orthodoxy but in Nelson's case, I couldn't care less if he wins or loses....he sucks that much. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +2
Nevada--This one looks to be one of the marquee Senate races in the country....and one of the most difficult to call. What I can say is that Nevada has a recent history of Democrats overperforming in polls, with a strong union machine that cranks out Hispanic votes in Las Vegas in defiance of polls. With that in mind, Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkeley would seem to have an advantage over interim Republican Senator Dean Heller. But with one of the worst economies in the country, Nevada is not likely to be as favorable of terrain for Obama as it was in 2008, and softness at the top of the ticket--whether Obama loses or narrowly wins--is bad for Berkeley. But for me the deciding factor in making this call right now was the Republican blowout in the recent special election to fill Heller's old House seat, in which the Republican overperformed traditional Republican margins even against a well above-average Democratic recruit. This tells me Republicans are more engaged than Democrats in Nevada, and if that continues Heller has an undeniable advantage. Prediction: Republican hold.
New Jersey--If the Republicans have come up with a challenger to face off against Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez, I don't know of him yet. Barring a stronger-than-expected Republican candidacy or a double-dip recession, Menendez should prevail for a second full term without breaking a sweat. Prediction: Democratic hold.
New Mexico--Here's a race I haven't seen any polling on. The likelihood is that the open seat vacated by long-time Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman will be a face-off between a current and a former Albuquerque-area Congressperson, Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson. The trajectory of the Latino vote and its growing pull in New Mexico would suggest Heinrich has the advantage here, but this is the kind of contest that could easily swing Republican if political conditions change for the worse for Democrats. Prediction: Democratic hold.
New York--Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand prevailed handily in the Republican year of 2010, far better than I expected she would. Unless Rudy Giuliani declares his candidacy next week, I suspect Gillibrand will coast into her first full term. Prediction: Democratic hold.
North Dakota--Democrats are understandably giddy that their recent top-tier recruit, former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Kent Conrad has a small lead in the early polls against her likely Republican challenger, Congressman Rick Berg, but it smells to me like a post-announcement bump for Heitkamp. To be sure, this is winnable, as Democrats still win elections in North Dakota unlike most of the other Plains states, and Berg is hardly Mr. Popularity based on the available polling data. However, North Dakota is a GOP-leaning state that is in the middle of flush times with the state's ongoing oil boom. My experience is that conservative voters who suddenly become rich don't vote for Democrats in open-seat Senate races. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +3
Ohio--For the second straight cycle, Democrat Sherrod Brown has been blessed with good timing. He rode the "culture of corruption" wave into office with a landslide in 2006 and now stands poised to benefit from being a populist voice most loudly decrying the plutocratic overreach of unpopular GOP Governor John Kasich. Brown would have no chance of re-election in 2010, but right now he's looking pretty good for 2012. With that said, it's too early to dismiss youthful Republican challenger Josh Mandel, widely accepted as an up-and-comer in the Ohio GOP. But I don't think 2012 is gonna be his year. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Pennsylvania--Considering the mediocre campaign of Joe Sestak came within a hair's breadth of victory in the toxic Democratic year of 2010, it's hard to imagine that Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, who has pretty widespread appeal even amongst southwest Pennsylvania conservaDems, will be defeated next year. The lack of top-tier GOP opposition to rise to challenge him suggests that's the consensus opinion among Republicans too. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Rhode Island--It's worth mentioning that the state of Rhode Island, along with many of its cities, is financially about where Italy is right now. Given it's long-standing status as a Democratic stronghold, there could be some backlash next year against the party. With that said, incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse looks pretty secure for re-election next year even in Rhode Islanders are in a particularly cantankerous anti-incumbent mood. It's easy to imagine a scenario where he underperforms, but hard to imagine a scenario where he loses. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Tennessee--Democrats had the perfect political storm in Tennessee in 2006 and still came up three points short of victory. Since then, the state has moved much further to the right and Republican incumbent Bob Corker is in no way controversial or outside the mainstream of his party. That should translate to a landslide re-election for Corker next year. Prediction: Republican hold.
Texas--Long-time Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring, leaving an open seat. The most likely Republican nominee is current Lieutenant Governor David Dewherst while the field is undefined and wide open for Democrats. Theoretically, the recruitment of former Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards would put Democrats in the game here, but even with Edwards this one still leans decidedly Republican. Without Edwards, the GOP nominee should be a cinch. Prediction: Republican hold.
Utah--Given their rigid nominating process, it's still possible that long-time Republican incumbent Orrin Hatch will fail to secure his party's nomination in favor of a Some Dude Tea Party clown. If this was 2010, Hatch would be a goner, but I think he's odds-on to survive in 2012 as the nominee, a scenario in which he'd cruise to a 3-1 re-election. But even if Hatch fails to get the nomination and it's a dream scenario for Democrats pitting right-wing Tea Partyer Jason Chaffetz versus Democrat Jim Matheson, this is Utah...and whoever has the (R) next to his name wins. Prediction: Republican hold.
Vermont--Independent socialist Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, is about as sure of bet as anyone to win another term next year. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Virginia--The marquee race of the country and the most hard to predict of all. The retirement of Democratic Senator Jim Webb is pitting former Republican Senator George Allen against former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine. Numerous polls have already come out and every one of them is deadlocked, a scenario that is likely to play out for the majority of the cycle. Obama's strength in Virginia next year combined with the strength of the national economy will be the tiebreaker in this election. While it can't be ruled out that Allen will implode like he did in 2006, Kaine's close association with the national Democratic Party isn't doing him any favors. Even if we assume a perfectly neutral national political environment in 2012, Virginia is still slightly to the right of the rest of country, meaning I regrettably have to give a narrow edge to Allen here, with the caveat that just about anything can and most likely will change and potentially put Kaine in the driver's seat. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +4
Washington--Two-term Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell has quietly won over her constituents and has a pretty solid approval rating to show for it. Hard to see how any Republican topples her next year. Prediction: Democratic hold.
West Virginia--I expected Democrat Joe Manchin to be some combination of Ben Nelson and Zell Miller after he won last year's special election, knowing he'd have to come in front of West Virginia voters only two years later with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot. To my surprise, he's been less horrible than I expected, and while still an imperfect soldier prone to some dumb statements, I sense that his heart is with the Democratic platform and if re-elected next year he'll get better. But will he be re-elected? His standing is better than I anticipated and thus far potentially troublesome challengers have opted out of the race, but if Republicans manage to time their "random WV Democrat is the same as Obama" attack right, the third time could be the charm in toppling them as they almost did with Governor Earl Ray Tomblin in October. While I still give Manchin the benefit of the doubt in avoiding this, one mistake in the next 11 months will be the end of him. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Wisconsin--Democrat Herb Kohl is retiring, and I really wish Russ Feingold would have chosen to reclaim a Senate seat next year, because my gut says Wisconsin Democrats are pissing away a seat by consolidating around Madison Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin. Perhaps I'm not giving Wisconsin voters enough credit, but I suspect Baldwin being openly gay will cost her two or three points...and thus the election. Add to that Baldwin's anti-gun record and she's a terribly flawed candidate running in the wrong state. And frankly I think the Democrats are squandering their momentum after Governor Walker's overreach with their permanent recall campaigns, which have gotta be exhausting Wisconsin voters. I doubt former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson will prevail in the GOP primary after giving the thumbs-up to Obama's health care bill, but if he does, he'll be the next Senator. But assuming either Mark Neumann or Jeff Fitzgerald prevails in the primary, I still think they have a leg up on Baldwin in the general election. Prediction: Republican pick-up. GOP +5
Wyoming--Republican John Barrasso will cakewalk into his first full term. Prediction: Republican hold.
So I expect Democrats to have reasonably comfortable victories in most of the large-state Senate races and hang onto the majority of the remaining races as well....yet still lose the Senate. Republicans will likely hold a 52-48 edge in the next Senate, and poised to make substantial additional gains in 2014, particularly if Obama wins re-election. Democrats are better positioned to make some gains in the House next year and they better hope they do because it won't be until 2016 until the Democrats can expect good news out of the Senate.
That's the good news for Democrats. But the fact that they hold 23 of the 33 Senate races up this year means they get a 57% popular vote in the Senate races this year but still lose the four seats they need to hold to hang onto the Senate, particularly when three of their most vulnerable seats are in bright red states where Obama will be a drag at the top of the ticket.
Arizona--Theoretically, the Democrats got a great recruit in former Surgeon General Richard Carmona to face off against likely Republican nominee Jeff Flake to fill the open seat left behind by retiring Republican Jon Kyl, but Carmona has been an indecisive and reluctant candidate who stammered about his decision to run for months leading up to his ultimate decision last month. That doesn't bode particularly well for the kind of campaign he plans to run, and given that he has no experience as a politician, it's far from clear whether he's gonna be able to go toe to toe with the well-spoken Flake, or even if he'll impress enough to secure the nomination from fellow Democrat Don Bivens. This is the kind of race that's too soon to get a comfortable feel for, but given what we know today, I have to give the edge to Flake. Prediction: Republican hold.
California--Democrat Diane Feinstein will not only win big next year, she'll get more votes than any other Democratic Senate candidate in any state in the country ever. All indications are the 78-year-old Feinstein plans to run for a fourth full term, and given that the more controversial Barbara Boxer won by nine points against a strong challenger in the toxic political year of 2010, it's hard to imagine anybody in the Republican field giving Feinstein a serious challenge. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Connecticut--If Republican voters were smart enough to nominate former Congressman Chris Shays, they'd have a very good chance at picking up Joe Lieberman's open seat....just like if they had the brains to nominate Rob Simmons in 2010, they'd probably have one more Senate seat right now. But the smart money is that Connecticut Republicans will once again forfeit a seat to Democrats by nominating wrestling baroness Linda McMahon, the same terrible candidate who got her clock cleaned last year. Congressman Chris Murphy is the most likely Democratic nominee and unless he's a rotten candidate, should be able to take advantage of McMahon's weakness. Otherwise, only a huge Republican wave brought upon by a bruising double-dip recession could make McMahon competitive here. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Delaware--Two-term Democratic incumbent Tom Carper should effortlessly get a third term. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Florida--Another race where it's way too soon to call definitively. Two-term Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson has always been the kind of guy who generates few strong feelings either way, and there's little doubt that had he been up in 2010 he would have been defeated. But 2012 may be a different story. There are a flurry of Republican candidates but the smart money now is on Connie Mack, current Congressman and the son of the former Senator. The Mack name is gold in Florida Republican circles and promises to make this a competitive race, particularly if the economy sours again. But in a neutral environment, I have to give a little bit of an edge to Nelson because he seems like a harmless enough Democrat for Florida voters to keep around to give a little bit of balance in their increasingly right-leaning politics. Just a gut feeling for now, but whatever the case Mack is unlikely to be as much of a pushover for Nelson as Katherine Harris was in 2006. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Hawaii--Yet another race that seems likely to be competitive in the most unlikely of states. Retiring Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka leaves an open seat that will be current Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono's to lose (barring an unlikely nomination of Ed Case in the primary), particularly with favorite son Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. But Republicans aren't going down without a fight and have nominated former Governor Linda Lingle. Lingle stands to benefit from the deep unpopularity of her Democratic successor in the Hawaii statehouse. Still, the partisan tide in Hawaii coupled with Obama's presence on the ticket make it hard to imagine Lingle will prevail without some glaring missteps by Hirono (or Case). Prediction: Democratic hold.
Indiana--If this was 2010, long-time incumbent Richard Lugar would probably be felled in the primary by conservative Richard Mourdock. But in 2012, I think Lugar will prevail in the primary, and then dominate in the general election. It's a shame that Democrats are poised to squander a second great statewide Senate candidate this year with Congressman Joe Donnelly, but that's almost certain if his opponent is Lugar. If Mourdock prevails, the race is a toss-up, but I'm inclined to think the GOP would still have a slight advantage unless Obama decides to strongly contest Indiana again, which doesn't seem likely. Prediction: Republican hold.
Maine--Looking more and more like Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe is gonna dodge a bullet here. She has nothing but clowns running up against her in the Republican primary. That may have been enough to take her down in 2010, but I don't think it's a gamble Maine Republicans will be willing to take in 2012. Anything is possible still....one of the Some Dudes in the primary could catch on among conservatives, but it seems odds-against now, and if the popular moderate Snowe prevails in the primary, she's a cinch to win the general election. Prediction: Republican hold.
Maryland--I can't envision a scenario where a Republican can win a statewide race in more-Democratic-by-the-day Maryland in the foreseeable future. That's good news for Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin who should have a slam-dunk re-election. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Massachusetts--Six months ago, I thought Scott Brown owned this seat the way Olympia Snowe owns her seat in Maine, but it's become clear he hasn't established himself yet with Massachusetts voters based on his very vulnerable poll numbers. Factor in the Democrats' top-tier recruit with Elizabeth Warren and all signs point to a very precarious re-election fight for Brown. Brown is by no means out of the race, but if the political conversation continues to be dominated by inequality and the sins of Wall Street, Warren will prevail in deep-blue Massachusetts. Prediction: Democratic pickup. Dems +1
Michigan--Some candidates seem to be getting very lucky this election cycle, and one of them is Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is theoretically vulnerable and would most likely have been felled if she ran in 2010. But she lacks a strong Republican challenger and I ultimately think Obama's role in saving the Michigan auto industry, amidst passionate Republican cries to let automobile manufacturing in America come to an end, will work to the Democrats' advantage next year. Stabenow is not yet out of the woods, but things are leaning her direction for now. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Minnesota--Things would really have to go badly for Democrats for incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar to become vulnerable. Her Republican challengers are either third-tier or fourth-tier and every potentially competitive challenger has taken a pass on the race. The only word of warning I can offer for Democrats is that this is Minnesota....where the last time an incumbent Senator looked as secure as Klobuchar does today was Rudy Boschwitz in 1990, and we all know how that ended. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Mississippi--Republican Roger Wicker has been about as anonymous of a GOP backbencher as anyone else in the country over the last four years but being a Republican wallflower is all one needs to score a comfortable win in Mississippi, particularly with the radioactive Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Prediction: Republican hold.
Missouri--My prognosis of this race hasn't changed since earlier this year. I can't imagine a scenario where Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill can win with Obama on the ballot. Missouri's hard-right turn seems poised to have staying power particularly with less minority growth than the rest of the country to offset the wholesale shift of the state's working-class whites to the furthest-right reaches of the GOP. I'm not sure whether Sarah Steelman or Todd Akin will get the Republican nomination, but I feel secure in predicting that whichever of them does get the nomination will be Missouri's next Senator. Prediction: Republican pickup
Montana--The fact that Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg already holds small leads in every available poll does not bode well for incumbent Democrat Jon Tester. And I don't believe Tester is doing himself any favors by suddenly becoming a reliable vote AGAINST his party even on popular issues. There are certain districts and states where it makes some sense for a Democrat to think his best bet is to always be on the other side of most issues as Obama and his party's leadership, but I don't think Montana is one of those states. Montana has a substantial left-of-center Democratic base that Tester is gonna need next year. He's far more likely to keep those voters sufficiently motivated by being a good-faith Democrat than he is by trying to win over the conservative rancher from Miles City who currently leans Rehberg. Either way though, a second term for Tester is a longshot. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +1
Nebraska--If Ben Nelson hadn't embarrassed himself and his state with the Cornhusker Kickback deal in the health care bill, he'd probably win re-election. But since he did, I don't think that genie can be put back into the bottle. There's absolutely zero margin for error for a Democrat in Nebraska, and Ben Nelson misread his constituents and made a huge error. However much Democrats try to ease their minds by the fact that Nelson isn't trailing his hypothetical GOP challengers now by as much as he was a few months ago, he's toast. Once the ads about the Cornhusker Kickback start playing by his challenger, Nelson will decline again. The current competitive poll numbers are probably only good for convincing Nelson to run again rather than retire. I'm normally lenient towards red-state Democrats who challenge party orthodoxy but in Nelson's case, I couldn't care less if he wins or loses....he sucks that much. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +2
Nevada--This one looks to be one of the marquee Senate races in the country....and one of the most difficult to call. What I can say is that Nevada has a recent history of Democrats overperforming in polls, with a strong union machine that cranks out Hispanic votes in Las Vegas in defiance of polls. With that in mind, Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkeley would seem to have an advantage over interim Republican Senator Dean Heller. But with one of the worst economies in the country, Nevada is not likely to be as favorable of terrain for Obama as it was in 2008, and softness at the top of the ticket--whether Obama loses or narrowly wins--is bad for Berkeley. But for me the deciding factor in making this call right now was the Republican blowout in the recent special election to fill Heller's old House seat, in which the Republican overperformed traditional Republican margins even against a well above-average Democratic recruit. This tells me Republicans are more engaged than Democrats in Nevada, and if that continues Heller has an undeniable advantage. Prediction: Republican hold.
New Jersey--If the Republicans have come up with a challenger to face off against Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez, I don't know of him yet. Barring a stronger-than-expected Republican candidacy or a double-dip recession, Menendez should prevail for a second full term without breaking a sweat. Prediction: Democratic hold.
New Mexico--Here's a race I haven't seen any polling on. The likelihood is that the open seat vacated by long-time Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman will be a face-off between a current and a former Albuquerque-area Congressperson, Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson. The trajectory of the Latino vote and its growing pull in New Mexico would suggest Heinrich has the advantage here, but this is the kind of contest that could easily swing Republican if political conditions change for the worse for Democrats. Prediction: Democratic hold.
New York--Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand prevailed handily in the Republican year of 2010, far better than I expected she would. Unless Rudy Giuliani declares his candidacy next week, I suspect Gillibrand will coast into her first full term. Prediction: Democratic hold.
North Dakota--Democrats are understandably giddy that their recent top-tier recruit, former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Kent Conrad has a small lead in the early polls against her likely Republican challenger, Congressman Rick Berg, but it smells to me like a post-announcement bump for Heitkamp. To be sure, this is winnable, as Democrats still win elections in North Dakota unlike most of the other Plains states, and Berg is hardly Mr. Popularity based on the available polling data. However, North Dakota is a GOP-leaning state that is in the middle of flush times with the state's ongoing oil boom. My experience is that conservative voters who suddenly become rich don't vote for Democrats in open-seat Senate races. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +3
Ohio--For the second straight cycle, Democrat Sherrod Brown has been blessed with good timing. He rode the "culture of corruption" wave into office with a landslide in 2006 and now stands poised to benefit from being a populist voice most loudly decrying the plutocratic overreach of unpopular GOP Governor John Kasich. Brown would have no chance of re-election in 2010, but right now he's looking pretty good for 2012. With that said, it's too early to dismiss youthful Republican challenger Josh Mandel, widely accepted as an up-and-comer in the Ohio GOP. But I don't think 2012 is gonna be his year. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Pennsylvania--Considering the mediocre campaign of Joe Sestak came within a hair's breadth of victory in the toxic Democratic year of 2010, it's hard to imagine that Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, who has pretty widespread appeal even amongst southwest Pennsylvania conservaDems, will be defeated next year. The lack of top-tier GOP opposition to rise to challenge him suggests that's the consensus opinion among Republicans too. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Rhode Island--It's worth mentioning that the state of Rhode Island, along with many of its cities, is financially about where Italy is right now. Given it's long-standing status as a Democratic stronghold, there could be some backlash next year against the party. With that said, incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse looks pretty secure for re-election next year even in Rhode Islanders are in a particularly cantankerous anti-incumbent mood. It's easy to imagine a scenario where he underperforms, but hard to imagine a scenario where he loses. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Tennessee--Democrats had the perfect political storm in Tennessee in 2006 and still came up three points short of victory. Since then, the state has moved much further to the right and Republican incumbent Bob Corker is in no way controversial or outside the mainstream of his party. That should translate to a landslide re-election for Corker next year. Prediction: Republican hold.
Texas--Long-time Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring, leaving an open seat. The most likely Republican nominee is current Lieutenant Governor David Dewherst while the field is undefined and wide open for Democrats. Theoretically, the recruitment of former Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards would put Democrats in the game here, but even with Edwards this one still leans decidedly Republican. Without Edwards, the GOP nominee should be a cinch. Prediction: Republican hold.
Utah--Given their rigid nominating process, it's still possible that long-time Republican incumbent Orrin Hatch will fail to secure his party's nomination in favor of a Some Dude Tea Party clown. If this was 2010, Hatch would be a goner, but I think he's odds-on to survive in 2012 as the nominee, a scenario in which he'd cruise to a 3-1 re-election. But even if Hatch fails to get the nomination and it's a dream scenario for Democrats pitting right-wing Tea Partyer Jason Chaffetz versus Democrat Jim Matheson, this is Utah...and whoever has the (R) next to his name wins. Prediction: Republican hold.
Vermont--Independent socialist Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, is about as sure of bet as anyone to win another term next year. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Virginia--The marquee race of the country and the most hard to predict of all. The retirement of Democratic Senator Jim Webb is pitting former Republican Senator George Allen against former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine. Numerous polls have already come out and every one of them is deadlocked, a scenario that is likely to play out for the majority of the cycle. Obama's strength in Virginia next year combined with the strength of the national economy will be the tiebreaker in this election. While it can't be ruled out that Allen will implode like he did in 2006, Kaine's close association with the national Democratic Party isn't doing him any favors. Even if we assume a perfectly neutral national political environment in 2012, Virginia is still slightly to the right of the rest of country, meaning I regrettably have to give a narrow edge to Allen here, with the caveat that just about anything can and most likely will change and potentially put Kaine in the driver's seat. Prediction: Republican pickup. GOP +4
Washington--Two-term Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell has quietly won over her constituents and has a pretty solid approval rating to show for it. Hard to see how any Republican topples her next year. Prediction: Democratic hold.
West Virginia--I expected Democrat Joe Manchin to be some combination of Ben Nelson and Zell Miller after he won last year's special election, knowing he'd have to come in front of West Virginia voters only two years later with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot. To my surprise, he's been less horrible than I expected, and while still an imperfect soldier prone to some dumb statements, I sense that his heart is with the Democratic platform and if re-elected next year he'll get better. But will he be re-elected? His standing is better than I anticipated and thus far potentially troublesome challengers have opted out of the race, but if Republicans manage to time their "random WV Democrat is the same as Obama" attack right, the third time could be the charm in toppling them as they almost did with Governor Earl Ray Tomblin in October. While I still give Manchin the benefit of the doubt in avoiding this, one mistake in the next 11 months will be the end of him. Prediction: Democratic hold.
Wisconsin--Democrat Herb Kohl is retiring, and I really wish Russ Feingold would have chosen to reclaim a Senate seat next year, because my gut says Wisconsin Democrats are pissing away a seat by consolidating around Madison Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin. Perhaps I'm not giving Wisconsin voters enough credit, but I suspect Baldwin being openly gay will cost her two or three points...and thus the election. Add to that Baldwin's anti-gun record and she's a terribly flawed candidate running in the wrong state. And frankly I think the Democrats are squandering their momentum after Governor Walker's overreach with their permanent recall campaigns, which have gotta be exhausting Wisconsin voters. I doubt former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson will prevail in the GOP primary after giving the thumbs-up to Obama's health care bill, but if he does, he'll be the next Senator. But assuming either Mark Neumann or Jeff Fitzgerald prevails in the primary, I still think they have a leg up on Baldwin in the general election. Prediction: Republican pick-up. GOP +5
Wyoming--Republican John Barrasso will cakewalk into his first full term. Prediction: Republican hold.
So I expect Democrats to have reasonably comfortable victories in most of the large-state Senate races and hang onto the majority of the remaining races as well....yet still lose the Senate. Republicans will likely hold a 52-48 edge in the next Senate, and poised to make substantial additional gains in 2014, particularly if Obama wins re-election. Democrats are better positioned to make some gains in the House next year and they better hope they do because it won't be until 2016 until the Democrats can expect good news out of the Senate.
posted by Mark at 9:13 AM
2 Comments:
I strongly disagree with you on Nevada, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Obama will likely carry Virginia(especially against Gingrich) and its very hard to imagine Obama voters going for a right wing idealouge like Allen. Obama is poised to carry Nevada and Wisconsin big and that will make it next to impossible for Heller and Thompson to pull off victories.
Remember in 2004 when strong Democrats who looked like they would win just two months earlier like Tom Daschle, Erskine Bowles, Betty Castor, and Tony Knowles all lost when Bush carried their states strongly. I am betting the same thing will happen to Heller, Allen, and Thompson.
I also think if Gingrich is the nominee, Obama will carry Missouri, which would likely mean McCaskill wins too.
Professor Gingrich is the flavor of the month. I have a hard time believing he'll be able to control his big mouth long enough to get the nomination. I still think Romney will be the nominee. He brings his own vulnerabilities to the race but I don't think even if Obama wins he'll have much in the way of coattails in 2012. Very hard to predict at this point, especially with financial calamity in Europe being a real possibility, which would throw everything into flux.
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