Early Thoughts on 2012 Senate Races
I can't remember when the upcoming Senate contests have begun to take form as quickly after the last cycle ended as I have this year. Incumbents are declaring their retirements and contenders are declaring their candidacies months before the usual timeline. As is often the case more than 18 months before the next election, it's very hard to determine what the political climate will be by the time election day rolls around. Conventional wisdom says that even in a neutral climate, the Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate given that they're defending 23 seats to the Republicans' 10 next year, with a loss of four seats ensuring GOP control.
I'll admit it's odds-on that the Republicans take over the Senate next year, but I still think it's too early to write the Democrats' obituary yet as I suspect the majority of a Presidential year electorate won't like what they see coming out of a Republican House, and perhaps even more so in the Republican-dominated statehouses, in the next two years. On the other hand, Obama is still the guy with the most culpability for the state of the nation in the eyes of the electorate, meaning that the nation's continued economic struggles could be another referendum against him much as 2006 and 2008 were both referendums against George Bush, with 2008 being an even bloodier year for Congressional Republicans than 2006.
Looking at it from a state-by-state perspective....
Arizona--There are murmurs that incumbent Republican Jon Kyl may retire, which would at least put Democrats in the game in this race, but their top prospective candidate, Gabrielle Giffords, has just been put out of commission for any 2012 Senate race. Beyond her, the Democratic bench is pretty thin in Arizona. Perhaps Harry Mitchell could be a credible statewide candidate, but I still can't envision a scenario where a Democrat is anything but a huge underdog in any Arizona Senate race in the foreseeable future.
California--The safe money is that 78-year-old incumbent Democrat Diane Feinstein will retire next year and the safe money says that she'll be replaced by another Democrat, particularly in a Presidential year. Certainly the odds are 90% or better for the latter, but don't underestimate voter anger towards the postapocalyptic state of affairs that will be occurring next year in California's state government, controlled entirely by Democrats. While it's still hard to see a Republican winning a federal statewide race in California, particularly with Obama at the top of the ballot, if a charismatic critic to the California status quo catches on, one can't rule it out. And I'm not coming up with any obvious heir apparent to Feinstein should she retire.
Connecticut--Voters in Connecticut have to be feeling a little down this week, never getting the chance to vote out Joe Lieberman now that he's declared his retirement. Congressman Chris Murphy is getting all the buzz on the Democratic side and it would require a masterstroke on the Republican side to beat him in modern-day Connecticut. The only Republican I could envision winning in Connecticut is former Congressman Rob Simmons.
Florida--The political climate in Florida was so toxic in 2010 that horrible candidates Rick Scott and Allen West were both victorious simply because of the (R) next to their name. There was zero chance Bill Nelson would have won reelection there if he was on the ballot in 2010, but 2012 could be another story. I'm not sensing that he's ever fully connected with Florida voters but he is a pretty good fit for the state and should win in a neutral political climate with an average GOP challenger, which would include former appointed Senator George Lemeiux. A bigger headache for Nelson would be if recently retired Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart decided to run.
Hawaii--The Republicans have a bench of one, or possibly two, in Hawaii. In a neutral year, that bench consisting of former Republican Governor Linda Lingle and possibly Republican Congressman Charles Djou would be formidable, especially for lukewarm Democratic incumbent Daniel Akaka, provided the 86-year-old Akaka chooses to run again. But 2012 will not be a neutral year in Hawaii because favorite son Barack Obama will be on the ballot, presumably with coattails. Whoever the Democrats nominate seems very likely to prevail even against Lingle.
Indiana--The state's brief dalliance with Democrats in 2006 and 2008 was fun while it lasted but definitely over, at least for the near term. Richard Lugar will run again, and my sense is that Tea Party fever that would have defeated him in a primary in 2010 will be on the downsurge by 2012. With that said, it's not out of the question that a wingnut Tea Partier could upset Lugar given the state of today's Republican Party, but my money's on Lugar surviving. Either way, the Republicans have a distinct advantage in holding this seat given that the Democrats' top Senate prospect, Brad Ellsworth, squandered his political capital and got crushed in 2010. Now theoretically if Ellsworth, Donnelly, or Baron Hill ran against a Sharron Angle-style Tea Party candidate in 2012, they'd have a chance, but it's hard to imagine things playing out that perfectly for Dems. The safe bet is that Lugar wins the primary and another term by a massive margin.
Maine--Either the best or second prospect for the Democrats to pick up a seat, victory in Maine requires the primary ouster of moderate Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe. While I think Lugar will survive a primary next year, Snowe is a different story, but if the Tea Party loses some momentum in the next year, Snowe could still pull this out the same way Lincoln Chafee did in the 2006 Rhode Island primary. Now Maine's Republicans are more conservative than Rhode Island's, but given that very conservative Republicans now dominate every level of Maine's state government, I'm sensing there will be a push back to the center and a recognition that Snowe is probably the only Republican who can win a Senate race in Maine in a Presidential year. There are a lot of variables in this race, but without a standout candidate on their bench, it still seems odds-against for Democrats getting this seat...because after all, if Snowe prevails in the primary, she wins the general election in a walk.
Maryland--Seems like Democrat Ben Cardin should have a cakewalk into a second term. Hard to envision a scenario where this race becomes competitive.
Massachusetts--Republican Scott Brown is gonna vote like a Democrat for the next two years and win a full term to the Senate quite handily in my opinion. It required a political climate as toxically anti-Republican as 2006 to get rid of Lincoln Chafee in demographically similar Rhode Island, and I suspect it would take a similar scenario to convince Massachusetts to vote out Scott Brown, and whatever the political climate is in 2012, I don't think it'll be that bad for the GOP.
Michigan--The economy is horrible in Michigan and will continue to be horrible next year. In 2006 and 2008, that helped Democrats big-time in the state. In 2010, it was equally beneficial for Republicans. Hard to see what the Michigan electorate will be thinking in 2012 in regards to a third term for Debbie Stabenow, but she has an excellent campaign narrative to run on regarding her party's insistence on bailing out the Detroit industry while the Republicans insisted on letting it be destroyed. Seems like any Republican challenger would have his or her hands full trying to defend their party's role in cheering on Detroit's collapse, so I'm leaning towards Stabenow hanging on here, particularly without any obvious GOP challengers on the horizon.
Minnesota--Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar crushed her opponent in a 20-point landslide for an open seat race. She's an extremely skillful campaigner who comes across as a likable moderate, and has thus maintained robust approval ratings even as those of her colleagues have plummeted. Particularly given that all top-tier Republicans are likely to be sharpening their knives for Franken in 2014, I'm guessing Klobuchar skates into a second term with another landslide victory and only token opposition.
Mississippi--If the Democrats couldn't beat Republican Roger Wicker in 2008, they definitely won't beat him in 2010. Now the Democrats have three potential top-tier candidates to run in the state with Travis Childers, Gene Taylor, and Mike Moore, but I doubt any of them would run and with Obama at the top of the ticket there's still virtually no chance they'd win.
Missouri--In my opinion this is the second most vulnerable Democratic-held seat. Even in the perfect political climate of 2006, Claire McCaskill won by a meek 51-49 margin. The tide has turned against Democrats significantly since then in Missouri and McCaskill's close ties with Obama almost by itself renders her unelectable for a second term against any generic Republican challenger. Expect her to be the Blanche Lincoln of 2012, losing by several points.
Montana--The odds are probably better that one-term Democratic incumbent Jon Tester will be defeated next year than of him winning a second term, but I'd rate his chances as better than McCaskill's. And part of what may work to his advantage is the GOP's threats to nix agriculture subsidies. With Tester being a farmer himself, there's good potential of him being a compelling figure to Montana voters who see the Tea Party as a bridge too far. There are number of Republicans who would be top-tier opponents to Tester, but the caliber of the opposition seems unlikely to be the difference in Montana next year. My guess is it will all hinge around how strong of a campaign Tester runs in a difficult state.
Nebraska--As vulnerable as Claire McCaskill is in Missouri, she's still infinitely better off than worthless right-wing corporate Democrat Ben Nelson in Nebraska. My guess is rotten poll numbers will nudge Nelson to retire. Whether Nelson stays or goes, any generic Republican will win by double digits next November.
Nevada--From the most vulnerable Democratic seat to the most vulnerable Republican-held seat, it's hard to imagine scandal-plagued Republican incumbent John Ensign could win either a primary or general election, so expect him to retire when a flurry of polls come out showing him in disastrous shape. At that point it will become a generic Democrat versus Republican contest. Conventional wisdom holds that Republican Congressman Dean Heller would be formidable if he ran for Senate, but given that Heller's district is entirely outside of Las Vegas, I'm not convinced of Heller's inevitability in the general election. Democrats have a fairly weak bench in Nevada, but I get the sense that very few people have come to terms with just how much Nevada has changed in the last couple of decades, and particularly with Presidential year turnout, Democrats should poll better than expected as they have been for about 20 years in Nevada.
New Jersey--Seems like it would be quite a feat to topple Bob Menendez in New Jersey, particularly with how weak the Republican bench is in the state. The political climate would have to be at least as bad as it was in 2010, and I don't see it happening.
New Mexico--If long-time Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman runs, he wins. If Bingaman retires, I'd still give the Democrats an advantage in a higher-turnout Presidential election year, but a hypothetical Heather Wilson candidacy for the Republicans would be formidable.
New York--If Republicans couldn't beat Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, it's hard to see how they could beat her in 2012. A Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki candidacy could make things interesting, but I'd be surprised if either of those guys would bother with a Senate contest at this stage of their lives and/or careers.
North Dakota--Virtually everybody is conceding this seat to the Republicans after Kent Conrad's recent retirement announcement, but I'm not so sure. If former Democratic Congressman Earl Pomeroy chooses to run in what's likely to be a less toxic political environment than 2010, I'd rate him something close to a frontrunner. If Pomeroy doesn't run, then it's definitely odds-on for Republicans, but again, keep your eye on farm subsidies. If the Tea Party takes it on with any level of seriousness, the hypothetical "small government" advocates in states like North Dakota might discover they're not as big of advocates of free-market fundamentalism as they first suspected.
Ohio--There's no question that one-term Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is vulnerable, but my money is that he'll hang on. Ohio's economy has been ground into dust and I suspect that after two years of Republican-controlled government at the state level making things worse by cutting off services to devastated communities, the populist message of Sherrod Brown is gonna sound pretty darn good by comparison. I think he's more likely to win than lose.
Pennsylvania--In a state demographically similar to Ohio, Bob Casey seems like a pretty good fit and is less ideologically left than is Sherrod Brown. On the other hand, he's hardly an electrifying personality and if he finds himself running against a charismatic challenger, he could hypothetically be in some trouble. But my bet is the pendulum swung further to the right than is natural for Pennsylvania in 2010, and that re-electing Casey will be the state's most practical correction.
Rhode Island--Without a Lincoln Chafee rematch likely, it seems pretty likely that freshman Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse will get a second term. There are some plausible Republican challengers, but it's hard to see them prevailing in a Presidential election year.
Tennessee--In theory, Democratic Congressman Lincoln Davis might make a credible Democratic candidate in a perfect political climate for Democrats, but with Obama running for re-election, it's hard to see that climate materializing for Democrats in Tennessee next year. Republican freshman Bob Corker's biggest risk is a right-wing primary challenge, but it's hard to make the case that Bob Corker has been insufficiently right-wing so I expect him to prevail in both the primary and the general election. Tennessee has simply become impossible turf for Democrats over the last decade.
Texas--Whoever has the (R) next to his or her name wins. Let's not kid ourselves. No matter who the Democrats run, even someone as generically appealing as Chet Edwards, won't be able to overcome the fierce partisan tide in Texas. We keep hearing how demographics will render the GOP unelectable even in Texas in a generation, but as conservative as even as the state's Latino population is, I wouldn't count on that.
Utah--I suspect Orrin Hatch will be prematurely retired by Tea Party wingnuts in his state's relatively exclusive nomination process that will deem him too "liberal". Of course in the state of Utah, it doesn't matter how big of a wingnut replaces Hatch as the GOP nominee, he or she will still win a Senate race by at least 20 points.
Vermont--My suspicion until I hear otherwise is that independent socialist Bernie Sanders will run for a second Senate term, and if he does, he'll win.
Virginia--It's no sure thing that quirky Democratic freshman Jim Webb will even run for a second term, but if he doesn't, former Governor Tim Kaine is waiting in the wings and will probably make for an even better Democratic nominee. My sense is that Virginia has turned a corner to a state that is more Democratic than Republican. Recent polls confirmed that even Obama is still reasonably popular there and leads prospective Republican challengers. With that in mind, I suspect either Webb or Kaine has a slight advantage heading into 2012, but if any wind at all is at the Republicans' back, that advantage will fade in an instant.
Washington--Democrat Maria Cantwell is always mentioned as potentially vulnerable, and she very well may have been ousted if she ran in 2010, but it seems like a stretch to believe she'll be beatable in 2012. The Republicans can't very well run Dino Rossi again, and their bench strikes me as incredibly weak.
West Virginia--Given that he's a comfortable fit for his state (or at least his shape-shifting ideological persona of the moment is), you have to give Democrat Joe Manchin at least a 50-50 chance of re-election. He'll dodge a bullet if the state's top Republican, Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, chooses not to run. Also likely to work to his advantage will be no new climate change legislation floating through Congress in the next two years that will intensify sentiment that the Democratic Party is trying to destroy the state's coal industry. Still, Obama will be at the top of the ballot working as an anchor on Manchin's campaign, and re-election will be challenging even if he lucks out and gets a lousy challenger.
Wisconsin--Like Pennsylvania and Ohio, I suspect Wisconsin swung so far to the right last November that it will more likely than not vote Democratic again in 2012 to restore the center of gravity. Whether that Democratic candidate is current incumbent Herb Kohl or recently defeated Russ Feingold, I'd give the Democrat odds here. Then again, perhaps I shouldn't underestimate the prospects of a permanent ideological shift for the state.
Wyoming--Republican John Barrasso will win a full-term with a solid 70% majority.
Breaking down these races, I'm only inclined to give Republicans about four or five pickups, just barely enough to win back the Senate. They could certainly win a few more than that, but they could also just as easily find themselves on the short end in Montana and North Dakota and come up a seat short of winning the Senate back. Time will tell, as always, but at least right now, I don't have the feeling of impending doom for the election cycle ahead that I had at this time in 2009.
I'll admit it's odds-on that the Republicans take over the Senate next year, but I still think it's too early to write the Democrats' obituary yet as I suspect the majority of a Presidential year electorate won't like what they see coming out of a Republican House, and perhaps even more so in the Republican-dominated statehouses, in the next two years. On the other hand, Obama is still the guy with the most culpability for the state of the nation in the eyes of the electorate, meaning that the nation's continued economic struggles could be another referendum against him much as 2006 and 2008 were both referendums against George Bush, with 2008 being an even bloodier year for Congressional Republicans than 2006.
Looking at it from a state-by-state perspective....
Arizona--There are murmurs that incumbent Republican Jon Kyl may retire, which would at least put Democrats in the game in this race, but their top prospective candidate, Gabrielle Giffords, has just been put out of commission for any 2012 Senate race. Beyond her, the Democratic bench is pretty thin in Arizona. Perhaps Harry Mitchell could be a credible statewide candidate, but I still can't envision a scenario where a Democrat is anything but a huge underdog in any Arizona Senate race in the foreseeable future.
California--The safe money is that 78-year-old incumbent Democrat Diane Feinstein will retire next year and the safe money says that she'll be replaced by another Democrat, particularly in a Presidential year. Certainly the odds are 90% or better for the latter, but don't underestimate voter anger towards the postapocalyptic state of affairs that will be occurring next year in California's state government, controlled entirely by Democrats. While it's still hard to see a Republican winning a federal statewide race in California, particularly with Obama at the top of the ballot, if a charismatic critic to the California status quo catches on, one can't rule it out. And I'm not coming up with any obvious heir apparent to Feinstein should she retire.
Connecticut--Voters in Connecticut have to be feeling a little down this week, never getting the chance to vote out Joe Lieberman now that he's declared his retirement. Congressman Chris Murphy is getting all the buzz on the Democratic side and it would require a masterstroke on the Republican side to beat him in modern-day Connecticut. The only Republican I could envision winning in Connecticut is former Congressman Rob Simmons.
Florida--The political climate in Florida was so toxic in 2010 that horrible candidates Rick Scott and Allen West were both victorious simply because of the (R) next to their name. There was zero chance Bill Nelson would have won reelection there if he was on the ballot in 2010, but 2012 could be another story. I'm not sensing that he's ever fully connected with Florida voters but he is a pretty good fit for the state and should win in a neutral political climate with an average GOP challenger, which would include former appointed Senator George Lemeiux. A bigger headache for Nelson would be if recently retired Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart decided to run.
Hawaii--The Republicans have a bench of one, or possibly two, in Hawaii. In a neutral year, that bench consisting of former Republican Governor Linda Lingle and possibly Republican Congressman Charles Djou would be formidable, especially for lukewarm Democratic incumbent Daniel Akaka, provided the 86-year-old Akaka chooses to run again. But 2012 will not be a neutral year in Hawaii because favorite son Barack Obama will be on the ballot, presumably with coattails. Whoever the Democrats nominate seems very likely to prevail even against Lingle.
Indiana--The state's brief dalliance with Democrats in 2006 and 2008 was fun while it lasted but definitely over, at least for the near term. Richard Lugar will run again, and my sense is that Tea Party fever that would have defeated him in a primary in 2010 will be on the downsurge by 2012. With that said, it's not out of the question that a wingnut Tea Partier could upset Lugar given the state of today's Republican Party, but my money's on Lugar surviving. Either way, the Republicans have a distinct advantage in holding this seat given that the Democrats' top Senate prospect, Brad Ellsworth, squandered his political capital and got crushed in 2010. Now theoretically if Ellsworth, Donnelly, or Baron Hill ran against a Sharron Angle-style Tea Party candidate in 2012, they'd have a chance, but it's hard to imagine things playing out that perfectly for Dems. The safe bet is that Lugar wins the primary and another term by a massive margin.
Maine--Either the best or second prospect for the Democrats to pick up a seat, victory in Maine requires the primary ouster of moderate Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe. While I think Lugar will survive a primary next year, Snowe is a different story, but if the Tea Party loses some momentum in the next year, Snowe could still pull this out the same way Lincoln Chafee did in the 2006 Rhode Island primary. Now Maine's Republicans are more conservative than Rhode Island's, but given that very conservative Republicans now dominate every level of Maine's state government, I'm sensing there will be a push back to the center and a recognition that Snowe is probably the only Republican who can win a Senate race in Maine in a Presidential year. There are a lot of variables in this race, but without a standout candidate on their bench, it still seems odds-against for Democrats getting this seat...because after all, if Snowe prevails in the primary, she wins the general election in a walk.
Maryland--Seems like Democrat Ben Cardin should have a cakewalk into a second term. Hard to envision a scenario where this race becomes competitive.
Massachusetts--Republican Scott Brown is gonna vote like a Democrat for the next two years and win a full term to the Senate quite handily in my opinion. It required a political climate as toxically anti-Republican as 2006 to get rid of Lincoln Chafee in demographically similar Rhode Island, and I suspect it would take a similar scenario to convince Massachusetts to vote out Scott Brown, and whatever the political climate is in 2012, I don't think it'll be that bad for the GOP.
Michigan--The economy is horrible in Michigan and will continue to be horrible next year. In 2006 and 2008, that helped Democrats big-time in the state. In 2010, it was equally beneficial for Republicans. Hard to see what the Michigan electorate will be thinking in 2012 in regards to a third term for Debbie Stabenow, but she has an excellent campaign narrative to run on regarding her party's insistence on bailing out the Detroit industry while the Republicans insisted on letting it be destroyed. Seems like any Republican challenger would have his or her hands full trying to defend their party's role in cheering on Detroit's collapse, so I'm leaning towards Stabenow hanging on here, particularly without any obvious GOP challengers on the horizon.
Minnesota--Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar crushed her opponent in a 20-point landslide for an open seat race. She's an extremely skillful campaigner who comes across as a likable moderate, and has thus maintained robust approval ratings even as those of her colleagues have plummeted. Particularly given that all top-tier Republicans are likely to be sharpening their knives for Franken in 2014, I'm guessing Klobuchar skates into a second term with another landslide victory and only token opposition.
Mississippi--If the Democrats couldn't beat Republican Roger Wicker in 2008, they definitely won't beat him in 2010. Now the Democrats have three potential top-tier candidates to run in the state with Travis Childers, Gene Taylor, and Mike Moore, but I doubt any of them would run and with Obama at the top of the ticket there's still virtually no chance they'd win.
Missouri--In my opinion this is the second most vulnerable Democratic-held seat. Even in the perfect political climate of 2006, Claire McCaskill won by a meek 51-49 margin. The tide has turned against Democrats significantly since then in Missouri and McCaskill's close ties with Obama almost by itself renders her unelectable for a second term against any generic Republican challenger. Expect her to be the Blanche Lincoln of 2012, losing by several points.
Montana--The odds are probably better that one-term Democratic incumbent Jon Tester will be defeated next year than of him winning a second term, but I'd rate his chances as better than McCaskill's. And part of what may work to his advantage is the GOP's threats to nix agriculture subsidies. With Tester being a farmer himself, there's good potential of him being a compelling figure to Montana voters who see the Tea Party as a bridge too far. There are number of Republicans who would be top-tier opponents to Tester, but the caliber of the opposition seems unlikely to be the difference in Montana next year. My guess is it will all hinge around how strong of a campaign Tester runs in a difficult state.
Nebraska--As vulnerable as Claire McCaskill is in Missouri, she's still infinitely better off than worthless right-wing corporate Democrat Ben Nelson in Nebraska. My guess is rotten poll numbers will nudge Nelson to retire. Whether Nelson stays or goes, any generic Republican will win by double digits next November.
Nevada--From the most vulnerable Democratic seat to the most vulnerable Republican-held seat, it's hard to imagine scandal-plagued Republican incumbent John Ensign could win either a primary or general election, so expect him to retire when a flurry of polls come out showing him in disastrous shape. At that point it will become a generic Democrat versus Republican contest. Conventional wisdom holds that Republican Congressman Dean Heller would be formidable if he ran for Senate, but given that Heller's district is entirely outside of Las Vegas, I'm not convinced of Heller's inevitability in the general election. Democrats have a fairly weak bench in Nevada, but I get the sense that very few people have come to terms with just how much Nevada has changed in the last couple of decades, and particularly with Presidential year turnout, Democrats should poll better than expected as they have been for about 20 years in Nevada.
New Jersey--Seems like it would be quite a feat to topple Bob Menendez in New Jersey, particularly with how weak the Republican bench is in the state. The political climate would have to be at least as bad as it was in 2010, and I don't see it happening.
New Mexico--If long-time Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman runs, he wins. If Bingaman retires, I'd still give the Democrats an advantage in a higher-turnout Presidential election year, but a hypothetical Heather Wilson candidacy for the Republicans would be formidable.
New York--If Republicans couldn't beat Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, it's hard to see how they could beat her in 2012. A Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki candidacy could make things interesting, but I'd be surprised if either of those guys would bother with a Senate contest at this stage of their lives and/or careers.
North Dakota--Virtually everybody is conceding this seat to the Republicans after Kent Conrad's recent retirement announcement, but I'm not so sure. If former Democratic Congressman Earl Pomeroy chooses to run in what's likely to be a less toxic political environment than 2010, I'd rate him something close to a frontrunner. If Pomeroy doesn't run, then it's definitely odds-on for Republicans, but again, keep your eye on farm subsidies. If the Tea Party takes it on with any level of seriousness, the hypothetical "small government" advocates in states like North Dakota might discover they're not as big of advocates of free-market fundamentalism as they first suspected.
Ohio--There's no question that one-term Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is vulnerable, but my money is that he'll hang on. Ohio's economy has been ground into dust and I suspect that after two years of Republican-controlled government at the state level making things worse by cutting off services to devastated communities, the populist message of Sherrod Brown is gonna sound pretty darn good by comparison. I think he's more likely to win than lose.
Pennsylvania--In a state demographically similar to Ohio, Bob Casey seems like a pretty good fit and is less ideologically left than is Sherrod Brown. On the other hand, he's hardly an electrifying personality and if he finds himself running against a charismatic challenger, he could hypothetically be in some trouble. But my bet is the pendulum swung further to the right than is natural for Pennsylvania in 2010, and that re-electing Casey will be the state's most practical correction.
Rhode Island--Without a Lincoln Chafee rematch likely, it seems pretty likely that freshman Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse will get a second term. There are some plausible Republican challengers, but it's hard to see them prevailing in a Presidential election year.
Tennessee--In theory, Democratic Congressman Lincoln Davis might make a credible Democratic candidate in a perfect political climate for Democrats, but with Obama running for re-election, it's hard to see that climate materializing for Democrats in Tennessee next year. Republican freshman Bob Corker's biggest risk is a right-wing primary challenge, but it's hard to make the case that Bob Corker has been insufficiently right-wing so I expect him to prevail in both the primary and the general election. Tennessee has simply become impossible turf for Democrats over the last decade.
Texas--Whoever has the (R) next to his or her name wins. Let's not kid ourselves. No matter who the Democrats run, even someone as generically appealing as Chet Edwards, won't be able to overcome the fierce partisan tide in Texas. We keep hearing how demographics will render the GOP unelectable even in Texas in a generation, but as conservative as even as the state's Latino population is, I wouldn't count on that.
Utah--I suspect Orrin Hatch will be prematurely retired by Tea Party wingnuts in his state's relatively exclusive nomination process that will deem him too "liberal". Of course in the state of Utah, it doesn't matter how big of a wingnut replaces Hatch as the GOP nominee, he or she will still win a Senate race by at least 20 points.
Vermont--My suspicion until I hear otherwise is that independent socialist Bernie Sanders will run for a second Senate term, and if he does, he'll win.
Virginia--It's no sure thing that quirky Democratic freshman Jim Webb will even run for a second term, but if he doesn't, former Governor Tim Kaine is waiting in the wings and will probably make for an even better Democratic nominee. My sense is that Virginia has turned a corner to a state that is more Democratic than Republican. Recent polls confirmed that even Obama is still reasonably popular there and leads prospective Republican challengers. With that in mind, I suspect either Webb or Kaine has a slight advantage heading into 2012, but if any wind at all is at the Republicans' back, that advantage will fade in an instant.
Washington--Democrat Maria Cantwell is always mentioned as potentially vulnerable, and she very well may have been ousted if she ran in 2010, but it seems like a stretch to believe she'll be beatable in 2012. The Republicans can't very well run Dino Rossi again, and their bench strikes me as incredibly weak.
West Virginia--Given that he's a comfortable fit for his state (or at least his shape-shifting ideological persona of the moment is), you have to give Democrat Joe Manchin at least a 50-50 chance of re-election. He'll dodge a bullet if the state's top Republican, Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, chooses not to run. Also likely to work to his advantage will be no new climate change legislation floating through Congress in the next two years that will intensify sentiment that the Democratic Party is trying to destroy the state's coal industry. Still, Obama will be at the top of the ballot working as an anchor on Manchin's campaign, and re-election will be challenging even if he lucks out and gets a lousy challenger.
Wisconsin--Like Pennsylvania and Ohio, I suspect Wisconsin swung so far to the right last November that it will more likely than not vote Democratic again in 2012 to restore the center of gravity. Whether that Democratic candidate is current incumbent Herb Kohl or recently defeated Russ Feingold, I'd give the Democrat odds here. Then again, perhaps I shouldn't underestimate the prospects of a permanent ideological shift for the state.
Wyoming--Republican John Barrasso will win a full-term with a solid 70% majority.
Breaking down these races, I'm only inclined to give Republicans about four or five pickups, just barely enough to win back the Senate. They could certainly win a few more than that, but they could also just as easily find themselves on the short end in Montana and North Dakota and come up a seat short of winning the Senate back. Time will tell, as always, but at least right now, I don't have the feeling of impending doom for the election cycle ahead that I had at this time in 2009.
posted by Mark at 3:40 PM
4 Comments:
I think it's very unlikely that California voters will quickly turn on Democrats just after the disastrous terms of Arnold and Bush. Memories of being left in the dark by Bush and being warmly welcomed by Obama with open arms are still strong and I will eat my hat if California voters elect to replace DiFi (if she retires) with a Republican, who will more likely than not oppose Obama's agenda every step of the way.
As for replacements to DiFi, there are plenty on the Cali Dem bench: Reps. Speier, Becerra, and Chu, Labor Secretary Solis, and Lt. Gov. Newsom. Meg Whitman is thinking about running statewide again, and since the Senate seat is the only statewide race up in Cali in 2012, I say bring it on!
Mark, you have three GOP pickups(ND, NE, and MO).
Obama almost won Missouri in 2008 and if he does so again, its hard to imagine him not pulling McCaskill across the finish line.
I think that in the end, a Democrat will beat Scott Brown. He is a conservative Republican in a state that Obama will win over 60% in. Democrats can use the same playbook that Republicans used against Max Cleland, saying that he's too conservative for the state and comparing him to John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.
If Obama wins reelection, Democrats will hold the Senate and make significant inroads in the House. If he loses, Democrats will lose the Senate and stay about even in the House.
sara, thanks for the list of possible candidates to replace DiFi. I've heard good things about Jackie Speier. She could be the best bet. Hopefully you won't have to eat your hat.
mr. phips, I think Jon Tester is more likely than not to lose in Montana as well, so that makes four seats. The political climate in Missouri would have to change tremendously in the next 18 months for either McCaskill to win or for Obama to be competitive in the state. Obama was a blank slate in 2008 and still lost the state. You have to do at least some business in rural Missouri to win the state, and there's zero chance voters in that demographic will ever warm up to Obama.
You may be right about Massachusetts, but right now, I see 2012 being an election year more like 2000...a year where the blue states in the Presidential election are very blue while the red states are very red....and where incumbents in both the Senate and the House who don't rock the boat will be fairly safe. Just a hunch, but if my suspicion is right then Scott Brown wins re-election the same way Lincoln Chafee did in 2000.
Like what you have here Mark.. I think that you should mention more about David Dewhurt (R)- Texas as a candidate.. I think that Ed Case (D)- Hawaii is a clear win their and that Martin Heinrich- (D) New Mexico- is a clear win their too.. Also, Don Carcieri (R)- New Hampshire, has a great shot at beating Whitehouse... Otherwise, great job.
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