2012 Final (Almost) Senate Predictions

At this point in the election cycle, with 37 days to go as of this writing, I feel as though I have a good enough sense of the state of play in the 33 Senate elections to make final calls on the races, with the usual caveat of giving myself an out on a couple of races in the final weeks if there is a substantial momentum shift.  The consensus opinion is now that the Democrats will probably hold the Senate as the substantial number of battleground races have mostly moved their direction.  There's an outside chance that Democrats may even gain a seat or two, which would have been unthinkable even a few months ago given that Democrats are defending 23 seats and the Republicans only 10, with a flurry of Democratic retirements making for an even more defensive posture.  Here are my thoughts on the matter, within the confines of the two-party vote to muffle third-party noise, except in the case of one race where there is a genuine three-candidate race in one state....

Arizona--To fill the seat of retiring three-term Republican Jon Kyl, the conventional wisdom has long been that Republican Congressman Jeff Flake had the whip hand, but Democrats scored a top recruit in former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona and polls indicate he's making a race out of it.  Flake's standing as the most conservative of the House's 435 members is pretty compelling ammunition to direct towards independent voters after all. And ironically enough with Flake being one of the most libertarian members of Congress, he could also be undone by the presence of a libertarian candidate ciphoning off some of his vote. With a Presidential race likely to bring out more Hispanic voters than in a midterm, it's no longer inconceivable that Carmona could win this, but my gut says it's still odds-against in a state where Democrats are still at a disadvantage and in the end I think Flake still pulls it out.  No longer will I be surprised if he doesn't though.  Projected winner:  Jeff Flake 52%

California--There's no question that Dianne Feinstein will win big against her Some Dudette opponent Elizabeth Emken, or that she'll run up a higher vote total than any Senate candidate in American history on the coattails of Barack Obama.  Despite the huge statewide advantage that Democrats have in California, there's still a pretty inelastic Republican core that will give Emken a not-insignificant percentage of the vote given her near-invisible profile, but expect this race to be called effortlessly at 11 p.m. Eastern.  Projected winner:  Dianne Feinstein 65%

Connecticut--Professional wrestling baroness turned Republican Senate candidate has made more of a race than expected in Connecticut after spending stacks of money to lose by double digits in 2010.  Helping her cause is her opponent, Congressman Chris Murphy, who does not have a defined profile statewide at this point.  Also helping her cause is Connecticut's unpopular Democratic Governor and diminished infatuation for Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, most likely by the state's hedge fund demographic.  Still, a race that appeared to be tied a month ago has showed signs of movement with Democrat Murphy pulling away.  McMahon's recent gaffe of wishing Social Security had a "sunset provision" is also unlikely to help her cause.  But my guess is the race will be much closer than I or most people expected a few months ago.  Projected winner:  Chris Murphy 53%

Delaware--I had to look up the name of Democratic incumbent Tom Carper's opponent as invisible as his race against the popular centrist Carper has been.  Apparently it's Kevin Wade.  Good luck with that Kevin.  This race won't be at all competitive.  Projected winner:  Tom Carper  68%

Florida--A few months ago, I strongly suspected two-term Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, who has always had lukewarm approvals and fails to generate excitement by just about anybody, was going down to defeat at the hands of Republican Congressman Connie Mack, son of the former Senator.  The polls showed Mack either leading or Nelson with brutal re-elect numbers and leads within the margin of error.  But damn has Nelson turned things around with September polls almost universally showing him with double-digit leads.  Mack's failure to be taken seriously from a stature standpoint, along with his own Charlie Sheen-esque past, haven't helped his cause here, but surprisingly enough I think Nelson's best friend in this race is Barack Obama, who is suddenly showing unexpected life in Florida polls.  More specifically, the selection of Paul Ryan as Romney's running mater seems to be having more of an impact than I expected on seniors.  Still, it's gonna be nonwhites that tip the balance here and Florida's surging Puerto Rican population coupled with the shift towards Democrats among younger Cubans is likely to save Nelson.  This is Florida so I still expect Republican Mack will overperform the polls, but I no longer believe Nelson's gonna lose.  Projected winner:  Bill Nelson 53%

Hawaii--Crazy to think how different things might be right now if it was long-time Democratic Senator Dan Inouye who retired in 2010, leaving an open seat for former Republican Governor Linda Lingle to run in amidst the very Republican climate of the year.  Unfortunately for Lingle, that opportunity never arose and it was Hawaii's junior Democratic Senator Dan Akaka who chose to retire in the 2012 cycle.  Republicans managed to get their candidate as Lingle is running, but will face the brutal headwinds of Obama at the top of the ticket in his home state which is expected to go 2-1 or better for the President.  There's been little polling of this race but that's because it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono will win here riding Obama's coattails, and probably by double digits.  Good timing all around for Hawaii Democrats as Lingle could probably make a race out of this under ordinary circumstances.  Projected winner:  Mazie Hirono  58%

Indiana--It's hard to forecast the extent of Republican competitiveness in Senate races in recent years because there's always an open question of which seats Republicans will forfeit by nominating unelectable right-wing nutjobs for candidates.  They arguably forfeited five seats in 2010 and seem to have done the same with a few seats in 2012.  When Republican primary votes booted long-time GOP incumbent Richard Lugar by more than 20 points in favor of State Treasurer and unapologetic Tea Party lap dog Richard Mourdock, they created a huge opening for centrist Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly.  I was one of the few who was bullish on Donnelly's prospects immediately after Mourdock got the nomination because of Indiana's recent flirtation with Democrats at the federal level and polls are bearing out my prognosis with a steady drumbeat of narrow leads for Donnelly.  Mourdock is attempting to move to the center but it's been made difficult by his statements during the Republican primary, and a lot of unhappy Lugar supporters seem open to voting for Donnelly.  By no means is this race in the bag, particularly with Romney and gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence expected to win at the top of the ticket, and I think Donnelly's recent refusal to commit to vote for Harry Reid as Democratic Majority Leader if elected was transparently cynical in a way that undermines his credibility.  Still, the race has gone according to my early suspicions thus far so I will continue to hold out for Donnelly to eke out an upset here.  Projected winner:  Joe Donnelly 51%  (+1 Democrats)

Maine--Another complicated race that came out with the unexpected retirement of moderate Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe.  A seat that seemed a sure bet for a Democratic pickup was quickly complicated when former Independent Governor Angus King threw his hat in the ring, and almost immediately scared off top-tier Democratic challengers.  The problem was and continues to be King's egomaniacal refusal to admit he will caucus with Democrats even though nearly everybody believes he will.  This is still a wild card in this race, and has continued to make it a three-way race, with low-profile Democratic nominee Cynthia Dill polling in double-digits in a way she probably wouldn't if King declared his intention to caucus with Democrats, leaving a small opening for Republican nominee Charlie Summers to win this.  Most polls still show King with a decisive, albeit shrinking, lead and I think in the end he will probably consolidate much of Dill's vote.  Still, King has needlessly made this race more competitive than it needs to be and puts in question his effectiveness as a Senator.  Projected winner:  Angus King 50% in a three-way  (+2 Democrats(?))

Maryland--Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin will never be accused of being charismatic and hasn't exactly been high profile in his first term, but will still safely cruise to a re-election of 20 points are better.  While Maryland still has a Republican core in its rural areas, the state has become of the most inelastic Democratic strongholds and has left Republicans with a weak bench, with Cardin's challenger Dan Bongino being reflective of that weakness.  An independent candidate is also running who could make a little noise but with Obama running up the score at the top of the ticket, Cardin will not only go along for the ride but possibly overperform him by a point or two.  Projected winner:  Ben Cardin  62%

Massachusetts--Unquestionably the marquee race of the nation, Republican incumbent Scott Brown is facing Democrat Elizabeth Warren facing the headwinds of a huge Obama victory at the top of the ticket in one of the nation's most Democratic states.  They've been trading narrow leads for months now and not too long ago it was looking like Brown was going to hold on.  He still may, but Warren began to litigate the consequences of a Senate headed by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a scenario that a Brown victory could facilitate, and the tide has moved to Warren in recent weeks.  And showing signs of panic, Brown has decided to make Warren's murky ethnic background the centerpiece of his campaign, which I see as a huge mistake, particularly since it led to the unsavory video footage of Brown's staff making racist Native American chants and then refusing to publicly apologize for it.  I don't really see Warren breaking away with this race even now as I think Brown's supporters are pretty solid, but at this point it looks as though Warren has a tangible lead and I expect she will hold it.  Projected winner:  Elizabeth Warren  52%  (+3 Democrats)

Michigan--Here's a race that was expected to be competitive that we haven't heard much about for awhile, and for good reason.  Two-term Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow has had the good fortune to run in years where the wind is at her party's back and with the auto industry's quasi-comeback thanks to the bailout Obama supported and Romney opposed, she is poised to comfortably take down Republican Congressman Pete Hoekstra, whose campaign kicked off with an ill-advised racist ad aired during the Super Bowl and they haven't really found their footing since.  Hoekstra's biggest liability though is not being able to run for this seat in 2010 when he could have won.  This year, he's gonna get his clock cleaned.  Projected winner:  Debbie Stabenow  58% 

Minnesota--Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar put her political skills on display in 2006 when she crushed her Republican opponent by 20 points in what was expected to be a close race.  This year, her winning demeanor and moderate profile has further endeared Minnesota voters towards her, and with her opponent being a one-term Republican state legislator with radical libertarian leanings, Klobuchar is likely to build upon her huge margin from 2006 in what has the potential to be one of the most lopsided Senate victories in the country for Democrats.  Projected winner:  Amy Klobuchar  63%

Mississippi--Hard to believe that four short years ago, the political environment was good for Democrats that Mississippi had a battleground Senate race.  Republican Roger Wicker won that race, filling out the remaining four years of Trent Lott who had resigned in 2007, and will cruise to re-election against a faceless challenger (Al Gore, and no...not THAT Al Gore) and a more hostile and unified Republican electorate than existed in 2008.  His margin won't be one of the largest in the country due to Mississippi's inelasticly polarized electorate, but there's zero doubt he'll win comfortably.  Projected winner:  Roger Wicker  61%

Missouri--No other Senate race has changed as much in the last month than the race in Missouri where embattled Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill was considered toast until the most controversial Republican challenger, Congressman Todd Akin, won the GOP primary, and immediately lived up to his gaffe-prone expectations by making his infamous and theoretically game-changing comments on "legitimate rape".   Republicans were so petrified about the need to distance themselves from him that all funding was cut off and Akin was operating in the dark for most of September, his campaign broke yet refusing to get out of the race and replace himself with another candidate who probably would have beaten McCaskill.  Yet for all the expectations that the book was closed on this race, little has actually changed.  The polling average has showed McCaskill continues to barely lead even when dominating the media war.  And now it appears as though Akin's detractors are ready to make nice and give him some funding after all.  I suspect it works, with the caveat that Akin will probably continue to stay stupid stuff right up until election day that puts his candidacy in continued peril.  But I don't think it's fully appreciated by most horse race analysts how much of a Tea Party cesspool that Missouri has become in the last four years, and if it becomes clear that Obama will be re-elected President, Akin has a strong closing argument to make to deny Obama an ally in the Senate.  Even with the most perfect electoral situation handed to her, I think McCaskill will lose to this neanderthal.  Projected winner:  Todd Akin 51% (+2 Democrats)

Montana--While much has changed in Missouri in the last few weeks, little has changed in the equally tough fight in Montana between Democratic incumbent Jon Tester and Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg.  Surprisingly little polling has been done here outside of two firms (Rasmussen and PPP) with conflicting models, meaning the race is hard to gauge.  The consensus, however, is that Rehberg narrowly leads.  For the challenger to be narrowly leading the incumbent in late September is a bad sign and reinforces my belief that Tester is not going to win here.  The race is still probably wide-open enough for a momentum shift, and certainly if the Presidential contest moves increasingly towards Obama, that could diminish the headwind Tester faces at the top of the ticket.  Still, Tester had a perfect storm in 2006 running against an incumbent who was one of Jack Abramoff's top lap dogs and who ran a terrible campaign to boot....yet Tester barely eked out a 3,000-vote win while failing to appreciably expand the Democratic voting base in Montana beyond Indian reservations, college towns, and retired union guys.  With a stronger challenger this year and the backdrop of a less favorable political environment, Tester probably needs the kind of game-changer Claire McCaskill was gifted if he's gonna win here, and Rehberg seems unlikely to channel Todd Akin on that front.  Projected winner:  Denny Rehberg  52%  (+1 Democrats)

Nebraska--It seemed like a good idea at the time.  When embattled Democratic Senator Ben Nelson announced his retirement early this year, Democrats thought they won the lottery when former Senator Bob Kerrey was convinced to come out of retirement and run for his old seat.  The excitement was short-lived as polls that came out immediately following the announcement of Kerrey's candidacy showed him losing badly--very badly--to all of the three potential Republican challengers.  When longshot candidate Deb Fischer got the GOP nod in the primary, it created a small opening for Kerrey to make waves, but nothing happened and the race has been declared out of reach for months now.  Fischer has not proven to be a Tea Party knuckle-dragger while Kerrey has been largely tuned out of the race, consigned to a humiliating defeat.  The newspaper in Omaha released a poll last week suggesting the race was low double digits, which was actually closer than expected, but it also showed Kerrey was barely besting Barack Obama at the top of the ticket which puts in question the poll's accuracy given that most people think Romney will win Nebraska by more than 20 points.  There's only one Democrat-held seat that at this point in the race is a certain GOP pickup, which is pretty impressive considering the map Democrats face.  Unfortunately for Bob Kerrey, that seat is Nebraska.  Projected winner:  Deb Fischer 59%  (+0 Democrats)

Nevada--Here's another race that is still wide-open, with quasi-incumbent Republican Dean Heller (filling the seat vacated by resigned Republican John Ensign) holding marginal low-to-mid-single-digit leads in public polls and seemingly well-positioned to beat his Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Shelley Berkeley.  But the big question is...can the public polls be believed.  Going back 20 years now, Democrats underperform in Nevada polls, particularly in Presidential election years, but come out en masse on election day and turn seeming Republican victories into nail-biters and turn close races into big Democratic wins.  This phenomenon is largely the product of the service workers' union's impressive get-out-the-vote machine, particularly with the state's fast rising minority population.  So the bottom line here is that if recent polling is right and samples showing Obama leading by only 2 while Heller leads by 6 are correct, then Heller will have a comfortable victory.  But I'm skeptical the sample is accurate, and at the very least I expect the race is far closer.  If on election night Obama prevails by 12 points as he did in 2008, then Berkeley gets the upset in the Senate race.  My guess is that the real story is about halfway between current polling and Obama's 2008 numbers, and the race will end up as a nail-biter in which Heller will narrowly prevail.  Projected winner:  Dean Heller

New Jersey--For two decades now, New Jersey has been a strong blue state, although the numbers are rarely as dominating for the donkey party as many presume.  I suspect this will be true in the 2012 Senate race pitting Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez versus Republican challenger Joseph Kyrrilos.  I really have no idea if Kyrrilos is a high-profile state lawmaker or just a Some Dude, but it's a safe bet that Menendez will win handily either way according to recent polls and the traditional trajectory of a New Jersey Senate race.  Menendez will probably outperform Obama by a point or two, but I don't expect him to penetrate the areas that make up New Jersey's Republican core.  Projected winner:  Bob Menendez 57%

New Mexico--Another open seat vacated by a Democrat, in this case retiring long-time Senator Jeff Bingaman, that was expected to be close, but all evidence points to the Democrat breaking away.  The Democrat is Albuquerque-area Congressman Martin Heinrich.  The challenger is far and away the strongest Republican the party could have found in the woman who held Heinrich's seat before retiring, former Congresswoman Heather Wilson.  But the rising Hispanic tide in New Mexico is proving too overwhelming even for the most promising Republican recruits and most polls show Heinrich with a high-single-digit lead and the RSCC has pulled its funds, effectively conceding the race.  It's not unthinkable for Wilson to pull a comeback here as she has a track record as a survivor in a blue area, but hope for the GOP is dwindling.  Projected winner:  Martin Heinrich 54%

New York--It's been 14 years since New York last had a Republican Senator and the streak seems poised to continue as Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand is poised for a very decisive 2-1 victory in Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat.  Her opponent, Wendy Long, is nobody I've ever heard of and a good indication of weak GOP recruitment in a race they know they have virtually no chance of winning even under the most perfect circumstances, let alone in a Presidential election year where they'll be losing at the top of the ticket by 20 points or more.  Projected winner:  Kirsten Gillibrand 69%

North Dakota--One of the most exciting races this cycle comes from a state that was not expected to exciting at all.  When Democratic Senator Kent Conrad announced his retirement in this deep red state, most figured that it was game, set, and match for a Republican pick-up.  But former Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp wasn't listening and her strong candidacy against Republican Congressman Rick Berg, who has proven to be a pretty weak candidate, has put her in the lead and kept her there in most polls even since she announced her candidacy.  I wish I could be upbeat about this race, but the partisan tide at the top of the ticket will be strong.  I'm not sure how strongly Berg has attempted to nationalize the race in his ads, but particularly by playing the fear card about the EPA and drilling rights in newly oil-rich North Dakota, Berg has some powerful closing arguments at his disposal.  Furthermore, North Dakota is a state that's difficult to poll for some very inside-baseball reasons. In 2008, polls indicated a tight Presidential race but McCain went on to win by nine points.  It's possible the polling is as bad for this Senate race as it was in the 2008 Presidential race.  Heitkamp certainly can still win but it will truly require a seamless threading of the needle to pull off.  I'm skeptical we'll get that perfect storm.  Projected winner: Rick Berg 52%  (+1 Republicans)

Ohio--Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is another Senator with good political timing, getting swept in back in 2006 in a year that was a killing fields for Ohio Republicans.  And with a pretty strong political environment resurfacing in 2012 he's probably gonna win again, despite his being well to the left of center for the state of Ohio and despite millions upon millions of dollars worth of SuperPAC money thrown at the state and geared towards Brown's defeat.  Republicans have a problem, however, with a weak challenger in state Treasurer Josh Mandel who is hard to take seriously as a candidate.  Furthermore, with economic populism at the forefront of Ohio politics and headlined in the Presidential campaign, Brown will have the wind at his back and should prevail comfortably, probably outperforming Obama at the top of the ticket.  In fact, the potential still exists for Brown to blow the race wide open and win a similar margin to his double-digit pouncing of former Senator Mike DeWine in 2006.  I'm not there yet, but it's doable.  Projected winner:  Sherrod Brown 54%

Pennsylvania--It would have been hard to envision six months ago but current polling suggests that Democratic incumbent Bob Casey is underpolling Barack Obama in his Senate race against nobody GOP challenger Tom Smith.  So how is it that Casey is leading by only single digits against a guy who just last month said that he knows what a rape-based conception is like because his daughter has a child out of wedlock?  Apparently there's been a SuperPAC assault against Casey that has largely gone unanswered.  I'm expecting this to change and for Casey to pull out another significant double-digit lead as it's very hard to envision a candidate as inept as Smith making a race out of this.  Still, it'll be closer than it should have been and nowhere near the 18-point beatdown that Casey served up to Rick Santorum in 2006. Projected winner:  Bob Casey 55%

Rhode Island--Democratic incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse has been on nobody's watch list for endangered incumbent at any point this year, so it was a bit of a surprise that the NRSC has dumped some money to help out Republican challenger Barry Hinckley.  It seems more like a desperation move on the part of Republicans who were counting on winning back the Senate this fall but are now seeing their chances narrowing, because I really struggle to imagine a scenario where Hinckley takes down Whitehouse in a Presidential election year, and what little early polling exists does not suggest Whitehouse is at all vulnerable.  Projected winner:  Sheldon Whitehouse 63%

Tennessee--There was little to no chance that Republican incumbent Bob Corker was in any danger at any point in his re-election bid in this increasingly conservative state, but what little hope there was vanished in the August primary, when the Democrats' preferred candidate, former actress Park Overall, failed to win her primary.  Winning in her place was some right-wing novelty candidate named Mark Clayton who the Tennessee Democratic Party won't get behind and is encouraging Tennessee Democrats to write somebody else in.  Much as I love competitive races in Tennessee, we're not getting one this year.  The safest incumbent Senator in the nation in 2012 is Bob Corker.  Projected winner:  Bob Corker  76%

Texas--If only we had known.  Democrats had counted on establishment Republican David Dewhurst, Texas' Lieutenant Governor, prevailing in the primary to fill retiring Republican Senator's Kay Bailey Hutchinson's open seat.  But as has happened so much in the last two cycles, Tea Party wingnut Ted Cruz prevailed in the primary.  Democrats never had a very realistic chance at winning a Senate seat in Texas, but former Houston Mayor Bill White could have put up a fight at least against a guy like Cruz, in comparison to the Some Dude we ended up with named Paul Sadler.   Instead, Cruz gets a cakewalk and the Senate gets one more uncompromising radical.  Projected winner:  Ted Cruz 58%

Utah--For long-time Republican Senator Orrin Hatch, the nervous part of this race was Utah's nominating convention, which ousted his former colleague Bob Bennett in 2010 for being insufficiently partisan, and replaced him with a Tea Party lunatic.  But Hatch dodged the bullet and prevailed, and will have no difficulty getting re-elected in crimson red Utah, and with Mormon Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket, Hatch is probably even better positioned to run up the score than he would have been in a traditional year against Democratic challenger Scott Howell.  Projected winner:  Orrin Hatch 68%

Vermont--Independent Bernie Sanders is a self-described socialist who caucuses with the Democrats, and only by understanding the current political environment in left-wing Vermont does it become clear how a guy with this profile can win a Senate seat.  Vermont's shift leftward started about 20 years ago, but it would have been hard to believe in 1992 that the state was poised to become the nation's most liberal state.  As a result, Sanders will not only win running as a "socialist", he will win overwhelmingly.  Projected winner:  66% Sanders.

Virginia--The open seat vacated by Democrat Jim Webb has been the most wide open Senate contest of 2012, deadlocked in the polls between former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine and former Republican Senator and Governor George Allen, who was narrowly beaten six years ago.  But recently, the deadlock has broken a little bit and it's been Kaine whose pulled a little bit ahead.  It's far too early to call this race over and a small slip by Kaine or a good moment for Allen could change the balance, but for now Obama's rising fortunes in Virginia seem to be pulling Kaine along as I projected would probably be the case a few months ago.  Again, it's still too early to call but right now the advantage is undeniably with Kaine.  Projected winner:  52% Kaine

Washington--Just like in 2006, there was some chatter early in the cycle that Republicans might try to hotly contest Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell, but it's been a foregone conclusion for most of 2012 that Cantwell would be cruising to victory in this increasingly Democratic state.  I know nothing of her Republican challenger Michael Baumgartner and I'm guessing the same can be said of most Washington residents who will be deciding the fate of the race in another five weeks.  Projected winner:  Maria Cantwell 59%

West Virginia--In the last two contested statewide elections in West Virginia, the trajectory has gone from a safe Democratic seat being made vulnerable when Republicans began to connect the Democrat to wildly unpopular Barack Obama, followed by a resurrection and victory by the Democrat come election day.  Just two years ago, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin endured this roller coaster ride and prevailed by a surprisingly impressive high-single-digit margin, mostly because of his fourth-rate Republican challenger John Raese who proudly declared himself "to the right of the Tea Party".  Manchin has worked overtime to distance himself from Obama in the two years he's been in the Senate, but I still figured last year at this time that he would have another tight race on his hands to win a full term fighting the headwinds of Obama sharing the ticket with him.  He lucked out in facing Raese again, however, as Republicans can't seem to get their shit together to score a decent recruit in the state.  And unless Republicans are successful with a late "Manchin is like Obama" hit, it looks as though he will cruise to re-election and surprise me once again.  Projected winner:  Joe Manchin  63%

Wisconsin--Aside from Missouri, no Senate race has changed as much in the last month as the Wisconsin race.  After a late primary, popular former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson narrowly prevailed in a tight four-way primary, squaring off against liberal Madison Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin for the open seat vacated by Democrat Herb Kohl.  Even the most optimistic horse race analysts on the Democratic side figured Thompson was a heavy favorite, but the combination of Baldwin's tenacious and effective campaign and Thompson's tired, feckless campaign has catapulted Baldwin into a steady lead in every poll over the course of just a few weeks as a month ago, Thompson had a comfortable lead.  Things could still change back just as quickly, but I think Wisconsin voters began to rethink whether they wanted to be the mecca of the Tea Party after the Scott Walker and Ron Johnson victories in 2010 and the 2012 recall election.  Beyond that, Baldwin is just running a much better campaign and right now I'm giving her the narrow edge, words I never thought I'd have been saying last month.  Projected winner:  Tammy Baldwin  51%

Wyoming--Never in my lifetime has there been a competitive Senate race in Wyoming and I'm not gonna get one this year either.  Republican incumbent John Barrasso is gonna swamp his Some Dude Democratic challenger Tim Chesnutt by one of the most lopsided margins of the 2012 Senate races.  Projected winner:  John Barrasso  71%

With only one pretty generous call here in predicting Donnelly to win in Indiana, I have the Democrats losing only one seat in the 2012 Senate races, an incredible feat if accomplished.  Even if Donnelly doesn't win, Democrats have the lead in the other races I predicted in their favor, meaning a 51-seat Democratic majority should materialize unless things change dramatically in races where Democrats lead.  That could obviously happen as the Democrats hold on several states is pretty tenuous, most notably Wisconsin, Virginia, and Massachusetts, but the Democrats are still in the game in North Dakota, Nevada, and Missouri (and to a lesser extent Montana) as well and if they were to get something close to a clean sweep they could actually gain seats this cycle.  The Democrats need to win as many seats as possible in 2012 as the 2014 Senate map is going to be brutal, much worse even than 2012.  In the unlikely event that 2014 is a good Democratic year, a decisive Democratic Senate majority in 2012 will protect against losing the Senate majority.  But in the more likely event that 2014 is a year as hostile as 2010, a larger Democratic Senate majority heading out of 2012 is more likely to merely protect against losing a filibuster-proof Senate minority in 2014.