The Battle for the Senate in 2016
As is so often the case in Presidential cycles with high-drama debates and primaries front and center in the political sphere, Congressional races tend to get overshadowed. Suddenly, however, with the death of Supreme Court justice Scalia last week, the Senate races became a lot more important as the Democrats need either four or five seats, depending on who wins the White House to have a Senate majority in 2016. And while I'm generally bearish on the Democrats' prospects this cycle as they attempt to hold the White House for a third consecutive term, the Senate class up this year is the class from 2010, where Democrats got pasted. As a result, the Republicans hold an unusually high number of vulnerable seats in blue and purple states so if a polarizing GOP nominee (say, Donald Trump) is at the top of the Presidential ticket, there's a very real possibility that the Democrats could win the four or five seats they need.
Many of the races have yet to fully take form and have primaries where the winner will be determinative for the two parties' chances. And of course there's always the chance of a would-be "safe" seat blowing up for one party such as Minnesota in 1990 or Virginia in 2006. But barring a shocking turn of events, the following seats are likely to stay in the hands of their respective parties....
For the Democrats:
California--Barbara Boxer (open seat retirement)
Connecticut--Richard Blumenthal
Hawaii--Brian Schatz
Maryland--Barbara Mikulski (open seat retirement)
New York--Chuck Schumer
Oregon--Ron Wyden
Vermont--Pat Leahy
Washington--Patty Murray
For the Republicans:
Alabama--Richard Shelby
Alaska--Lisa Murkowski
Georgia--Johnny Isakson
Idaho--Michael Crapo
Iowa--Chuck Grassley
Kansas--Jerry Moran
Kentucky--Rand Paul
North Dakota--John Hoeven
Oklahoma--James Lankford
South Carolina--Tim Scott
South Dakota--John Thune
Utah--Mike Lee
I'm somewhat reluctant to put open seats in the slam-dunk category but particularly given that this is a Presidential year, it's almost unthinkable that a Republican would win in either California and Maryland. As for the rest of the seats, there's a varying degree a volatility in them where the opposing party has at least a small chance of picking them off.
Arizona--Three-decade incumbent and former GOP Presidential nominee John McCain is going for a sixth term. As was the case in 2010, McCain first has to get through the primary in his own party with State Senator Kelli Ward challenging him from the right. McCain is a favorite to prevail in the primary and likely will be in the general election as well, although he has a strong challenger in Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. Only five Democrats nationally hold Congressional seats in districts won by Mitt Romney in 2012 and Kirkpatrick's vast district taking in giant swaths of northern and eastern Arizona along with northeastern fringe of the metropolitan Phoenix is one of them. McCain can likely overcome any possible headwind at the top of the ticket should Trump or Cruz get his party's nomination, but if Ward is able to prevail in the primary, Kirkpatrick would be even money to pick up the seat for the Democrats. Still, a lot of things will have to go right for the Dems to wrestle this seat away. Prediction: Likely Republican
Arkansas--Democrats are bullish on former US Attorney Connor Eldridge, their young Senate candidate challenging one-term Republican incumbent John Boozman, who unseated Democrat Blanche Lincoln in a landslide in 2010 but who is considered such a backbencher in the Senate that even his own constituents don't really know who he is. Consider me highly skeptical that the Democrats have any chance in Arkansas, where former popular Democratic Senator was crushed by 17 points in 2014. Every indication is that Arkansas has realigned into one of the reddest states in the country in just a few short years, and even though Eldridge is running as an old-fashioned moderate Arkansas Democrat like the ones who thrived in the state until recently--and even though the state's former First Lady Hillary Clinton is odds-on to be at the top of the ticket--I still think Boozman will prevail by 20 points or more. Prediction: Likely Republican
Colorado--Democrats dodged a bullet when Republican Congressman Mike Coffman declined to challenge incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, but another former GOP Congressman--Scott Tipton--now seems like the Republican best positioned to take on Bennet. Considering Bennet managed to narrowly prevail against a strong challenge in 2010, he won't be an easy target, especially since Colorado has continued to trend leftward in the years since and 2016 will have Presidential year turnout. Barring devastating headwinds at the top of the ticket for the Democrats, Bennet is definitely the favorite here. Prediction: Leans Democrat.
Florida--The most wide open Senate race in the country is in Florida, the open seat vacated by Marco Rubio, with contested primaries in both parties making it tough to handicap this early in the cycle. The frontrunners on the Republican side are current Congressmen David Jolly and Ron DeSantis, with DeSantis being the more conservative of the two that Democrats are hopeful to run against. The Democratic side features two Congressmen of their own. One is the young moderate Patrick Murphy from south Florida who beat right-wing Allen West in 2012 and won re-election handily last year in a district Romney won. He'd be the strongest candidate by far, but first has to get past a primary challenge from the mercurial progressive Alan Grayson. While the foul-mouthed and mean-spirited Grayson would be a disaster in the general election, there's a very real chance he could win a Democratic primary. It's next to impossible to handicap this race with the current level of uncertainty but given that any chance of a Democratic victory
likely requires Murphy to emerge victorious in the primary, you have to give the Republicans a small early advantage from this far out. And if Rubio manages to get the nomination for his party, he will likely have some coattails in his home state that will benefit the GOP Senate nominee as well. Prediction: Tilts Republican.
Illinois--The closest the Democrats have to a sure thing this cycle is in Illinois, where Republican Mark Kirk eked out a one-point victory against a slimy challenger in the political perfect storm of 2010. Illinois has become a heavier and heavier lift for Republicans in the last generation but has recently showed signs of polarizing between Chicago and the rest of the state. If that intense polarization plays out again in 2016 and the downstate counties are a sea of Republican red, Kirk could make it close, but with Presidential turnout it's really hard to imagine him winning, especially since he'll have a stronger challenger this time since his likely Democratic challenger is Iraq War veteran and amputee Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. The Democrats are really having an unprecedented disaster at the top of the ticket if they can't pick up this seat. Prediction: Likely Democrat (+1 for Dems)
Indiana--Republican Congressman Dan Coats came out of retirement and won his old Senate back in 2010 but already wants out again this cycle, leaving an open seat with two current members of Congress vying on the Republican side...Marlin Stutzman from the Fort Wayne area and Todd Young from the state's southeast corner. The Democrats were unable to get their choice (former Senator Evan Bayh) but got a decent recruit in former Congressman Baron Hill who held the same southeastern IN seat that Young now holds back in the 90s and 2000s. Hill is a long shot in increasingly Republican Indiana, but if Stutzman gets the nod on the GOP side, Hill will have a parochial advantage in hanging onto the conservative Democrats in his old southern Indiana seat that have largely trended Republican in recent years. Still, a helluva lot of things would have to go right for the Dems to win this seat and with Hillary at the top of the ticket the chances get even slimmer. Prediction: Likely Republican
Louisiana--On the outer edges of competitiveness is the open seat in Louisiana vacated by Republican David Vitter after his stunning upset defeat in last fall's gubernatorial race. A humbled Vitter announced his retirement from the Senate after losing that race, and Democrats were briefly optimistic of their chances, particularly if Mitch Landrieu got into the race. Landrieu declined, however, and the Dems are left with no strong candidate to face off against a number of top-tier Republicans vying for the seat including House members John Fleming and Charles Boustany. The Dems have very low chances here, but after winning a Governor's race only months ago with similarly lopsided odds, it's too early to declare this race over. Prediction: Likely Republican
Missouri--Democrats have a very strong candidate in Secretary of State Jason Kander, the youngest statewide elected official in the country, to face off against incumbent Republican Roy Blunt. A decade ago, this would have likely been a genuine tossup, but Missouri has really hardened into a red state during the Obama era and unless Blunt really steps in it (Todd Akin-style) or Kander proves to be an absolute rock star, the Democrats aren't gonna be winning here with Hillary at the top of the ticket. Prediction: Likely Republican.
Nevada--The Silver State gave us the marquee Senate race in the country in 2010 when Harry Reid overcame polls showing him DOA and won decisively. Reid is retiring this year and his absence is likely to produce another barnburner of an open seat contest. The Democrats are likely to go with former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, and would have identity politics on their side in pursuit of females and the fast-growing Latino population in the state. The Republicans are running a strong challenger as well with Congressman Joe Heck, who has represented a two-time Obama-voting district in the Las Vegas suburbs for several years. Heck will likely face some headwinds in increasingly Democratic Nevada in a higher-turnout Presidential cycle but fellow Republican Dean Heller narrowly prevailed in such a climate in 2012 and Heck has a very doable path to victory as well if he can hold some of the crossover support he's maintained in his home Congressional district. Still, Cortez Masto has a small advantage looking from afar. Prediction: Tilts Democrat.
New Hampshire--Another hotly contested race will be always-volatile New Hampshire where GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte is facing a challenge from current Governor Maggie Hassan. There have already been a number of polls showing this race very close to deadlocked. Perhaps more than any other Senate race in the country, this race is likely to come down to who is at the top of the ticket for each party. If I was Ayotte, I would much rather be running with Rubio at the top of the ticket for the GOP rather Donald Trump, despite Trump's big win in the New Hampshire primary a couple of weeks ago. And the death of Antonin Scalia could represent another challenge for Ayotte as moderate New Hampshire voters are more likely to want a Democratic Senate to fill the Supreme Court vacancy. All things being equal, Ayotte would probably pull this one out, but some trends are breaking against her and make me think Hassan may have a small advantage, but an advantage that may well not materialize in another seven months. Prediction: Tilts Democrats (+2 for Dems)
North Carolina--With the changing demographics and political profile of North Carolina, Democrats thought Senate backbencher Richard Burr would be a soft target in 2010 but didn't even come close to upending him in that year's GOP wave. Six years later, Burr could still be potentially vulnerable given his unimpressive favorables but just about every high-profile Democrat passed on challenging him, leaving a small-city mayor the Dems' best prospect. In 2008, Kay Hagan won an upset in a very similar environment but it's hard to believe 2016 will prove to be as perfect of a political storm and 2008 was. Prediction: Likely Republican.
Ohio--Definitely among the top tier of competitive races in 2016, first-term Republican Rob Portman appears quite vulnerable and stands poised to face off against popular and charismatic former Governor Ted Strickland. There are some signs that Strickland may not be as strong of an opponent as he looks on paper though. For one thing, he's 75 years old. He also faces a primary challenge against a Cincinnati city council member that could potentially bloody him heading into the general and his fundraising haul has been mediocre. Plus Portman is a pretty polished campaigner and if Hillary proves to be a headwind at all at the top of the ticket, it could work to Portman's advantage. While I don't rule out Strickland at all if 2016 turns into a decently Democratic year, I think the conditions warrant giving Portman the edge here to hold his seat. Prediction: Leans Republican.
Pennsylvania--Another top tier competitive race is in a neighboring Rust Belt state. Republican Pat Toomey squeaked out a narrow victory in the 2010 GOP sweep and has been working to build a moderate profile in the years since. It seems to be serving him well as Toomey has higher approval ratings than the other incumbent Republicans considered most vulnerable this year. A fractured Democratic field with a hotly contested primary is also helping Toomey's cause, as establishment Democrats are rallying behind Katie McGinty, the former Chief of State to Governor Tom Wolf, but former Congressman Joe Sestak, who narrowly lost to Toomey in 2010, is returning for an encore to the chagrin of the Democratic establishment who are not fans. It's anybody's guess who between McGinty and Sestak will win the primary at this point, and it's hard to know which is the better option to topple Toomey in November. In order to win, Toomey needs to win a good chunk of votes from suburban Philadelphia that will likely vote for Hillary in the Presidential race. These voters are pro-choice, however, so Toomey will not be served well if the election becomes a referendum on the Supreme Court as it likely will be. Still, Toomey has emerged from his first term strong enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Prediction: Leans Republican
Wisconsin--Polls currently show former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold with a comfortable lead over the guy who unseated him in 2010, Republican Senator Ron Johnson. While the Dems appear better positioned than not to win this seat back, I still think they're spiking the football a little early here as Feingold is a notoriously poor campaigner and could get swamped in a sea of right-wing special interest money as he was before. Furthermore, Hillary at the top of the ticket would not be likely to offer Feingold any tailwinds in Wisconsin. I'm hesitant to declare poor-performing Republicans toast after 2014 when the previously unimaginable re-elections of guys like Paul Le Page and Mike Grimm became a reality, and Johnson fits that category perfectly. Prediction: Tilts Democrats (+3 for Democrats)
So as of now late February, I'm seeing the Dems falling a little bit short of picking up a Senate majority. Even more so than traditional cycles these races will be a little easier to call after the primary cycle when the nominees are selected because in some cases, especially Florida, the winner of the primary will almost certainly mean the difference between a Democratic gain and a GOP hold. And if the Democrats do manage to win back the Senate in 2016, it'll be a rental because they're extremely overexposed heading into the Senate class up in 2016 with a ratio of something like 26 Democratic-held seats and 7 Republican-held seats. It's all part of the reason I'm having a hard time mustering up much excitement for this election cycle as even if Democrats defy the odds and hang on to the White House for a third consecutive term due to a trainwreck of an opposition party, they're poised for an epic ass-whooping two years later in the midterms that will make 2010 and 2014 look like the good old days by comparison. Still, with the Supreme Court at stake, 2016 will nonetheless be an extremely consequential year and the Democrats had best take advantage of any kind of victory they can get while they can get it.
Many of the races have yet to fully take form and have primaries where the winner will be determinative for the two parties' chances. And of course there's always the chance of a would-be "safe" seat blowing up for one party such as Minnesota in 1990 or Virginia in 2006. But barring a shocking turn of events, the following seats are likely to stay in the hands of their respective parties....
For the Democrats:
California--Barbara Boxer (open seat retirement)
Connecticut--Richard Blumenthal
Hawaii--Brian Schatz
Maryland--Barbara Mikulski (open seat retirement)
New York--Chuck Schumer
Oregon--Ron Wyden
Vermont--Pat Leahy
Washington--Patty Murray
For the Republicans:
Alabama--Richard Shelby
Alaska--Lisa Murkowski
Georgia--Johnny Isakson
Idaho--Michael Crapo
Iowa--Chuck Grassley
Kansas--Jerry Moran
Kentucky--Rand Paul
North Dakota--John Hoeven
Oklahoma--James Lankford
South Carolina--Tim Scott
South Dakota--John Thune
Utah--Mike Lee
I'm somewhat reluctant to put open seats in the slam-dunk category but particularly given that this is a Presidential year, it's almost unthinkable that a Republican would win in either California and Maryland. As for the rest of the seats, there's a varying degree a volatility in them where the opposing party has at least a small chance of picking them off.
Arizona--Three-decade incumbent and former GOP Presidential nominee John McCain is going for a sixth term. As was the case in 2010, McCain first has to get through the primary in his own party with State Senator Kelli Ward challenging him from the right. McCain is a favorite to prevail in the primary and likely will be in the general election as well, although he has a strong challenger in Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. Only five Democrats nationally hold Congressional seats in districts won by Mitt Romney in 2012 and Kirkpatrick's vast district taking in giant swaths of northern and eastern Arizona along with northeastern fringe of the metropolitan Phoenix is one of them. McCain can likely overcome any possible headwind at the top of the ticket should Trump or Cruz get his party's nomination, but if Ward is able to prevail in the primary, Kirkpatrick would be even money to pick up the seat for the Democrats. Still, a lot of things will have to go right for the Dems to wrestle this seat away. Prediction: Likely Republican
Arkansas--Democrats are bullish on former US Attorney Connor Eldridge, their young Senate candidate challenging one-term Republican incumbent John Boozman, who unseated Democrat Blanche Lincoln in a landslide in 2010 but who is considered such a backbencher in the Senate that even his own constituents don't really know who he is. Consider me highly skeptical that the Democrats have any chance in Arkansas, where former popular Democratic Senator was crushed by 17 points in 2014. Every indication is that Arkansas has realigned into one of the reddest states in the country in just a few short years, and even though Eldridge is running as an old-fashioned moderate Arkansas Democrat like the ones who thrived in the state until recently--and even though the state's former First Lady Hillary Clinton is odds-on to be at the top of the ticket--I still think Boozman will prevail by 20 points or more. Prediction: Likely Republican
Colorado--Democrats dodged a bullet when Republican Congressman Mike Coffman declined to challenge incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, but another former GOP Congressman--Scott Tipton--now seems like the Republican best positioned to take on Bennet. Considering Bennet managed to narrowly prevail against a strong challenge in 2010, he won't be an easy target, especially since Colorado has continued to trend leftward in the years since and 2016 will have Presidential year turnout. Barring devastating headwinds at the top of the ticket for the Democrats, Bennet is definitely the favorite here. Prediction: Leans Democrat.
Florida--The most wide open Senate race in the country is in Florida, the open seat vacated by Marco Rubio, with contested primaries in both parties making it tough to handicap this early in the cycle. The frontrunners on the Republican side are current Congressmen David Jolly and Ron DeSantis, with DeSantis being the more conservative of the two that Democrats are hopeful to run against. The Democratic side features two Congressmen of their own. One is the young moderate Patrick Murphy from south Florida who beat right-wing Allen West in 2012 and won re-election handily last year in a district Romney won. He'd be the strongest candidate by far, but first has to get past a primary challenge from the mercurial progressive Alan Grayson. While the foul-mouthed and mean-spirited Grayson would be a disaster in the general election, there's a very real chance he could win a Democratic primary. It's next to impossible to handicap this race with the current level of uncertainty but given that any chance of a Democratic victory
likely requires Murphy to emerge victorious in the primary, you have to give the Republicans a small early advantage from this far out. And if Rubio manages to get the nomination for his party, he will likely have some coattails in his home state that will benefit the GOP Senate nominee as well. Prediction: Tilts Republican.
Illinois--The closest the Democrats have to a sure thing this cycle is in Illinois, where Republican Mark Kirk eked out a one-point victory against a slimy challenger in the political perfect storm of 2010. Illinois has become a heavier and heavier lift for Republicans in the last generation but has recently showed signs of polarizing between Chicago and the rest of the state. If that intense polarization plays out again in 2016 and the downstate counties are a sea of Republican red, Kirk could make it close, but with Presidential turnout it's really hard to imagine him winning, especially since he'll have a stronger challenger this time since his likely Democratic challenger is Iraq War veteran and amputee Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. The Democrats are really having an unprecedented disaster at the top of the ticket if they can't pick up this seat. Prediction: Likely Democrat (+1 for Dems)
Indiana--Republican Congressman Dan Coats came out of retirement and won his old Senate back in 2010 but already wants out again this cycle, leaving an open seat with two current members of Congress vying on the Republican side...Marlin Stutzman from the Fort Wayne area and Todd Young from the state's southeast corner. The Democrats were unable to get their choice (former Senator Evan Bayh) but got a decent recruit in former Congressman Baron Hill who held the same southeastern IN seat that Young now holds back in the 90s and 2000s. Hill is a long shot in increasingly Republican Indiana, but if Stutzman gets the nod on the GOP side, Hill will have a parochial advantage in hanging onto the conservative Democrats in his old southern Indiana seat that have largely trended Republican in recent years. Still, a helluva lot of things would have to go right for the Dems to win this seat and with Hillary at the top of the ticket the chances get even slimmer. Prediction: Likely Republican
Louisiana--On the outer edges of competitiveness is the open seat in Louisiana vacated by Republican David Vitter after his stunning upset defeat in last fall's gubernatorial race. A humbled Vitter announced his retirement from the Senate after losing that race, and Democrats were briefly optimistic of their chances, particularly if Mitch Landrieu got into the race. Landrieu declined, however, and the Dems are left with no strong candidate to face off against a number of top-tier Republicans vying for the seat including House members John Fleming and Charles Boustany. The Dems have very low chances here, but after winning a Governor's race only months ago with similarly lopsided odds, it's too early to declare this race over. Prediction: Likely Republican
Missouri--Democrats have a very strong candidate in Secretary of State Jason Kander, the youngest statewide elected official in the country, to face off against incumbent Republican Roy Blunt. A decade ago, this would have likely been a genuine tossup, but Missouri has really hardened into a red state during the Obama era and unless Blunt really steps in it (Todd Akin-style) or Kander proves to be an absolute rock star, the Democrats aren't gonna be winning here with Hillary at the top of the ticket. Prediction: Likely Republican.
Nevada--The Silver State gave us the marquee Senate race in the country in 2010 when Harry Reid overcame polls showing him DOA and won decisively. Reid is retiring this year and his absence is likely to produce another barnburner of an open seat contest. The Democrats are likely to go with former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, and would have identity politics on their side in pursuit of females and the fast-growing Latino population in the state. The Republicans are running a strong challenger as well with Congressman Joe Heck, who has represented a two-time Obama-voting district in the Las Vegas suburbs for several years. Heck will likely face some headwinds in increasingly Democratic Nevada in a higher-turnout Presidential cycle but fellow Republican Dean Heller narrowly prevailed in such a climate in 2012 and Heck has a very doable path to victory as well if he can hold some of the crossover support he's maintained in his home Congressional district. Still, Cortez Masto has a small advantage looking from afar. Prediction: Tilts Democrat.
New Hampshire--Another hotly contested race will be always-volatile New Hampshire where GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte is facing a challenge from current Governor Maggie Hassan. There have already been a number of polls showing this race very close to deadlocked. Perhaps more than any other Senate race in the country, this race is likely to come down to who is at the top of the ticket for each party. If I was Ayotte, I would much rather be running with Rubio at the top of the ticket for the GOP rather Donald Trump, despite Trump's big win in the New Hampshire primary a couple of weeks ago. And the death of Antonin Scalia could represent another challenge for Ayotte as moderate New Hampshire voters are more likely to want a Democratic Senate to fill the Supreme Court vacancy. All things being equal, Ayotte would probably pull this one out, but some trends are breaking against her and make me think Hassan may have a small advantage, but an advantage that may well not materialize in another seven months. Prediction: Tilts Democrats (+2 for Dems)
North Carolina--With the changing demographics and political profile of North Carolina, Democrats thought Senate backbencher Richard Burr would be a soft target in 2010 but didn't even come close to upending him in that year's GOP wave. Six years later, Burr could still be potentially vulnerable given his unimpressive favorables but just about every high-profile Democrat passed on challenging him, leaving a small-city mayor the Dems' best prospect. In 2008, Kay Hagan won an upset in a very similar environment but it's hard to believe 2016 will prove to be as perfect of a political storm and 2008 was. Prediction: Likely Republican.
Ohio--Definitely among the top tier of competitive races in 2016, first-term Republican Rob Portman appears quite vulnerable and stands poised to face off against popular and charismatic former Governor Ted Strickland. There are some signs that Strickland may not be as strong of an opponent as he looks on paper though. For one thing, he's 75 years old. He also faces a primary challenge against a Cincinnati city council member that could potentially bloody him heading into the general and his fundraising haul has been mediocre. Plus Portman is a pretty polished campaigner and if Hillary proves to be a headwind at all at the top of the ticket, it could work to Portman's advantage. While I don't rule out Strickland at all if 2016 turns into a decently Democratic year, I think the conditions warrant giving Portman the edge here to hold his seat. Prediction: Leans Republican.
Pennsylvania--Another top tier competitive race is in a neighboring Rust Belt state. Republican Pat Toomey squeaked out a narrow victory in the 2010 GOP sweep and has been working to build a moderate profile in the years since. It seems to be serving him well as Toomey has higher approval ratings than the other incumbent Republicans considered most vulnerable this year. A fractured Democratic field with a hotly contested primary is also helping Toomey's cause, as establishment Democrats are rallying behind Katie McGinty, the former Chief of State to Governor Tom Wolf, but former Congressman Joe Sestak, who narrowly lost to Toomey in 2010, is returning for an encore to the chagrin of the Democratic establishment who are not fans. It's anybody's guess who between McGinty and Sestak will win the primary at this point, and it's hard to know which is the better option to topple Toomey in November. In order to win, Toomey needs to win a good chunk of votes from suburban Philadelphia that will likely vote for Hillary in the Presidential race. These voters are pro-choice, however, so Toomey will not be served well if the election becomes a referendum on the Supreme Court as it likely will be. Still, Toomey has emerged from his first term strong enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Prediction: Leans Republican
Wisconsin--Polls currently show former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold with a comfortable lead over the guy who unseated him in 2010, Republican Senator Ron Johnson. While the Dems appear better positioned than not to win this seat back, I still think they're spiking the football a little early here as Feingold is a notoriously poor campaigner and could get swamped in a sea of right-wing special interest money as he was before. Furthermore, Hillary at the top of the ticket would not be likely to offer Feingold any tailwinds in Wisconsin. I'm hesitant to declare poor-performing Republicans toast after 2014 when the previously unimaginable re-elections of guys like Paul Le Page and Mike Grimm became a reality, and Johnson fits that category perfectly. Prediction: Tilts Democrats (+3 for Democrats)
So as of now late February, I'm seeing the Dems falling a little bit short of picking up a Senate majority. Even more so than traditional cycles these races will be a little easier to call after the primary cycle when the nominees are selected because in some cases, especially Florida, the winner of the primary will almost certainly mean the difference between a Democratic gain and a GOP hold. And if the Democrats do manage to win back the Senate in 2016, it'll be a rental because they're extremely overexposed heading into the Senate class up in 2016 with a ratio of something like 26 Democratic-held seats and 7 Republican-held seats. It's all part of the reason I'm having a hard time mustering up much excitement for this election cycle as even if Democrats defy the odds and hang on to the White House for a third consecutive term due to a trainwreck of an opposition party, they're poised for an epic ass-whooping two years later in the midterms that will make 2010 and 2014 look like the good old days by comparison. Still, with the Supreme Court at stake, 2016 will nonetheless be an extremely consequential year and the Democrats had best take advantage of any kind of victory they can get while they can get it.
posted by Mark at 5:50 PM
8 Comments:
Great post. It's probably wishful thinking to hope for Trump causing the complete and permanent destruction of the Republican Party as we know it, but I'd settle for a Democratic Senate!
I actually volunteered for Pat Toomey (when he was a Representative) for one summer in college as a chance to learn about how a Congressional office works. And what are some things that Feingold has done (or hasn't done) that make him a poor campaigner? I went to one of his listening sessions once (he would hold a town meeting in every single county in the state) and enjoyed getting a chance to hear him speak.
My thoughts on a Trump nomination are complex. I'd much prefer it if the GOP were to face off against Ted Cruz in 2016, although at this point that prospect looks dim and I don't see how Trump can be stopped. Come the general election, Trump's sales pitch to blue-collar voters and the "poorly educated that he loves" stands poised to realign existing voting coalitions in a way that, even in defeat, would make Republicans stronger for cycles beyond 2016. It's a little too involved to get into in a comment on here but I long for the days of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan being the face of the Republican Party because they were much easier to define as the guys who close your factory down and take away your Medicare.
Did you have much direct contact with Pat Toomey? What did you think of him personally? Russ Feingold gets high marks for his integrity and I've always liked him, but that integrity nearly ended his political career once and eventually did get the better of him in 2010. Because of his commitment to getting money out of politics, Feingold has only accepted public campaign financing dollars in his previous election runs. As a result, his opponents who abide by no such aversion to big-money influence have swamped him with negative ads and driven down his favorables. Back in 1998, he had a 20-point lead over his Republican opponent.....but after a monthslong barrage of negative ads his numbers plummeted and Feingold held on to win by only 2 points. Even in 2004, his strongest cycle, he only won by 10 points against a "Some Dude" challenger. In 2010, his integrity caught up with him as his refusal to play the big money advertising game happened to occur in a very Republican year and allowed Ron Johnson to beat him quite handily. By the time Feingold got his head out of the sand, he was already underwater in the polls without enough time to recover. As always, months before the election, Feingold looks strong in his rematch with Johnson....but Johnson will inevitably play dirty and Feingold will likely continue to refuse to, meaning he's vulnerable. I still think Feingold is more likely than not to win because Johnson is just not popular and never really has been, but with Feingold as the Democratic standardbearer, it's a good bet he'll make things closer than they should be.
In my 6-8 weeks that I worked in Toomey's office, I think I only interacted with him twice -- once was when I first started and he came out to shake my hand, and once when he brought out his newborn daughter for the staff to see. Most of the time he was either in closed door meetings in his office or else in Washington. He seemed like a nice guy when I was around him. Obviously he's ridiculously conservative and I don't agree with most of what he stands for. I think he's an effective politician because he's smart and also has kind of a friendly, low key, humble, trustable persona that people gravitate toward. Joe Sestak was a decorated war hero but still couldn't beat him.
What you said about Feingold makes sense. I remember McCain-Feingold as the main piece of campaign finance reform legislation a while back. I'll do my best to support him this time around because his loss in 2010 was a big one for the country.
Toomey had very good timing in running in 2010 when the Democrats were so overexposed after their big 2008 wins with the economy still in bad shape. I was impressed how close Sestak got under the circumstances. The Democratic establishment hates him though since he primaried Arlen Specter after Specter switched parties and then still lost to Toomey. That's why the Washington Dems are all lining up behind Katie McGinty in the primary because they don't want Sestak as their nominee again. Seems petty to me....and I think Sestak got a lot closer to winning in 2010 than Specter would have had Specter won the primary.
Agreed that Wisconsin switching from Feingold to Johnson in 2010 was one of the most miserable results in the nation. Little did I know, however, that it would only be the second worst result coming out of Wisconsin that night as you guys managed to elect an even worse Governor than you did Senator!!
I had been thinking about the 2018 midterms, and while I do not want to see Trump or Cruz anywhere near the White House, having one of them there might be a blessing in disguise for vulnerable Senate Democrats in this almost completely defensive cycle. Republicans have just 8 seats up, most in safely red states, while Democrats have 25 (counting the 2 I's).
Arizona - Jeff Flake - Likely to Safe GOP, though a strong Democrat may be able to at least make it competitive.
California - Dianne Feinstein - Safe DEM; she will be 85 in 2018, but she's a lifer.
Connecticut - Chris Murphy - Safe DEM; Republicans have a better chance at taking the governorship after two terms of unpopular Democrat Malloy.
Delaware - Tom Carper - Safe DEM
Florida - Bill Nelson - Likely DEM if Nelson runs, though at 73 he might be a contender for retirement. If that happens, holding this seat will be very difficult with almost no one on the bench, as besides Nelson, Democrats have had trouble winning statewide in recent elections. The loser of the Grayson-Murphy contest this year would be the likeliest contender.
Hawaii - Mazie Hirono - Safe DEM
Indiana - Joe Donnelly - Competitive, as I doubt Republicans will repeat the mistakes of 2012, and turnout will guaranteed be lower.
Maine - Angus King - Safe IND; LePage is not exactly Mr. Popularity and I doubt Snowe will come out of retirement. Democrats outside of the Presidency have also had trouble winning statewide here post-2006.
Maryland - Ben Cardin - Safe DEM
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren - Safe DEM unless Baker runs, but Warren is no Coakley.
Michigan - Debbie Stabenow - Likely to Safe DEM. With Bush's unpopularity in 2006 and a presidential race in 2012, 2018 will be Stabenow's first real test since her first win in 2000. Snyder's drop in popularity (which may drop more in the wake of the Flint water scandal) can only help her, plus one of the Republicans' strongest candidates, Terri Lynn Land, couldn't win an open seat in a much redder year.
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar - Safe DFL
Mississippi - Roger Wicker - Safe GOP
Missouri - Claire McCaskill - Like Donnelly in Indiana, McCaskill got lucky with her Republican challenger. Also like Donnelly, I don't think Republicans will repeat the mistakes of 2012 here either, and Missouri has become crimson red outside of Kansas City, St. Louis and the college town of Columbia. Though McCaskill has just been diagnosed with breast cancer and I heard she is retiring though I have not seen anything confirming retirement. With or without her, though, this seat will be a heavy lift to hold.
Montana - Jon Tester - This is probably one of the more worrisome races. Tester did win in 2012, but couldn't get 50% even with presidential turnout. If even one leg of the 3-legged stool of retired union workers, college students, and Native Americans disappears, then that means trouble. Though Tester is a skilled campaigner and probably knows he will have to work to earn a third term.
Nebraska - Deb Fischer - Safe GOP
Nevada - Dean Heller - Lean to Likely GOP. While Republicans in Nevada are more vulnerable than in decades past, Democrats still have some work to do, though they will probably target the open governorship more. While 2012 was very close, with an almost guaranteed drop-off in turnout in 2018, Heller's margin will probably be wider.
New Jersey - Bob Menendez - Likely DEM; Republicans have had better luck with the governorship than the Senate, and Christie's presidential run probably won't help either. (He is termed out of the governorship in 2017.)
New Mexico - Martin Heinrich - Safe DEM; might be competitive if Susanna Martinez, who is termed out, runs unless she becomes VP.
New York - Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe DEM
This comment has been removed by the author.
This comment has been removed by the author.
North Dakota - Heidi Heitkamp - I was surprised she managed to pull it off against the sitting Republican Representative last time, though like Indiana and Missouri, I think Republicans will find a stronger candidate from their large bench. Like Tester, Heitkamp is also a skilled campaigner and beat large odds to win last time. After Conrad announced his retirement, I thought North Dakota would be the second-likeliest Republican pickup after Nebraska with Heitkamp such an unknown, and the oil boom boosting Republicans.
Ohio - Sherrod Brown - Brown is more entrenched, though it is hard to not see this race as competitive, especially if the termed-out Kasich runs. Brown, like Obama, has managed to beat the odds though and win with a decimated state party, though the win was only in single digits.
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey, Jr. - Having also won by just single digits last time, Casey seems to be in a similar situation as Brown, except Pennsylvania is more Democratic than Ohio, Casey is probably a better fit, and Republicans will probably focus more of their efforts at Governor Wolf.
Rhode Island - Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe DEM
Tennessee - Bob Corker - Safe GOP
Texas - Ted Cruz(?) - Safe GOP with or without Cruz.
Utah - Orrin Hatch (open) - Safe GOP
Vermont - Bernie Sanders (open) - A Democrat or Democratic-caucuser is almost guaranteed to win here.
Virginia - Tim Kaine - Competitive due to lower turnout in an otherwise bluish-purple state; however Northern Virginia might save Kaine like it did Warner, who managed to eke out a win in a horrible year.
Washington - Maria Cantwell - Safe DEM. Republicans could make it a race, but I don't see anyone at this point.
West Virginia - Joe Manchin - Another seat I thought would be in danger of flipping, probably the likeliest Dem-held seat to flip, with the state turning from almost completely DEM to almost completely GOP in less than a decade, but I heard Manchin has gotten a lot of crossover support and has a virtual monopoly on the WVDP.
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin - Another trouble spot as Democrats tend to shine here in presidential years, and Republicans in midterms, and with Walker a possible challenger.
Wyoming - John Barrasso - Safe GOP
So that puts the tally at:
6 safe Republicans: Wicker, Fischer, Corker, Cruz, Hatch, Barrasso
2 possibly vulnerable Republicans: Flake, Heller
12 safe Democrats (including 2 Dem-caucusing I's): Feinstein, Murphy, Carper, Hirono, King, Cardin, Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Whitehouse, Sanders, Cantwell
3 currently safe Democrats who could become vulnerable if circumstances change: Stabenow, Heinrich, Menendez
7 possibly vulnerable Democrats: Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Casey, Kaine, Baldwin
3 very vulnerable Democrats: Tester, Brown, Manchin
Of course we need to see the 2016 results before predicting whether or not Republicans will reach 60 in 2018, but Democrats will need to do really well this year, possibly gaining 3 or 4 seats, to keep Republicans below 60 if we have President Hillary or Bernie. If we end up with President Trump, President Cruz, or whoever, then a Republican president might be a blessing in disguise for Donnelly, Tester, and Manchin unless the Republican president is wildly popular in 2018.
Post a Comment
<< Home