Six More Months To Go: Analysis of Midterm Senate Races

I waited until the recent round of consequential primaries in Indiana and West Virginia to write this update of the 2018 midterms, which is now less than six months away.  My enthusiasm for this stuff is nowhere near what it was in the 2000s as my cynicism about the one step forward and one step back formula of the American electoral politics cycle has poisoned my expectations for sustained policy improvement.  Still, there are few things more exciting than the heat of a political campaign, particularly when it's your tribe who seems to be on offense.  That's definitely the case heading into 2018, and nearly every special election result of the past 12 months is pointing in the direction of substantial Democratic gains.  I expect that consensus to be rattled and second-guessed at various points in the coming six months as the present incarnation of the Democratic Party remains as out of touch with the cultural values of Middle America as it was in November 2016, and Trump has an uncanny ability to exploit that and steer the national conversation towards his preferred topics, knocking his critics off-balance.

In addition, the fundamentals of the country are currently very strong, with a strong economy and an electorate that generally finds things heading in the right direction.  And each new round of Trump administration drama and media/legal pushback towards it appears to be yielding diminishing returns as the public is becoming immune to it.  With all of this in mind, there's a possibility that this midterm could play out much like 1998 did, with Democrats gaining seats in a similar environment of a strong economy overruling voters concern about Presidential ethics.  Indeed, Trump's approval rating has ticked up a couple of points in recent weeks, befuddling his furious critics, suggesting that some of the likely damage in November can be mitigated.  Ultimately though, I've seen enough from the special elections to assure me the Democratic base is highly motivated, the Republican base is lethargic, and faction of the electorate "within the 40-yard lines" is open to voting for Democrats in the same way that kept a lot of red-state Democrats in office during the Bush years.  In the dogfight between Trump and his critics, I expect Trump will win handily in 2020, but in 2018 he's gonna face a big setback simply because of the laws of political gravity.

All of this leads me to expect a lot of Democratic victories on November 6, 2018.  I believe the Dems need 23 seats to win the U.S. House of Representatives and expect they'll get there with seats to spare.  I'm betting on a gain of about 35 seats in the House, with those gains centered in upscale suburban areas, a trend that makes me nervous as I expect the country club takeover of the Democratic Party will inevitably changes its policies.  The biggest earthquake will likely come in downballot legislative races in states all over the country, where the Republicans are heavily overexposed and the shift of a few percentage points towards Democrats is likely to flip multiple legislative chambers and give Democrats hundreds more seats than they do today.  The Senate, however, is a different story.  When I last profiled the state of the race six months ago, the Democrats were defending 25 out of 33 overall Senate seats up in 2018, an unusually lopsided margin that is the result of Democrats' recent good fortunes in this Senate class dating back to 2012, 2006, and even 2000.  Since then, the playing field has gotten even worse, with Democrats defending 26 out of 34 seats following the resignation of Minnesota Senator Al Franken.  Even predicting for a strong Democratic year, I still had the Democrats losing four Senate seats based on my predictions six months ago simply because the Democrats are defending Senate seats in such inhospitable states.  My thoughts on a few of these races have changed.  Read on to find out which....

Arizona--When I made my original Senate predictions, Republican Senator Jeff Flake had just announced his retirement and I concluded that the GOP probably improved its chances at holding the seat, allowing Congresswoman Martha McSally to take the reins.  I figured McSally was probably the narrow favorite early on, given her personal profile and being the incumbent Congresswoman in a swingy suburban Tucson district, along with Arizona's continued Republican lean.  But McSally has faltered out of the starting gate and has yet to shake right-wing primary opponent Kelli Ward, who could still theoretically win the nomination.  Ward would almost certainly lose the general election, but even McSally looks to be a slight underdog at this point, making some amateurish stumbles out of the starting gate while early indicators suggest the Democrats have really moved the football closer to their end zone in Arizona since Trump was elected.  The likely Democratic nominee is Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema has an early lead in publicly released polls and cuts a decent profile from a moderate suburban Phoenix district.  It's possible that Sinema's former life as a left-wing Nader supporter could come back to haunt her among some of the center-right voters she'll need, but at this point I am inclined to believe the Democrats will pick up a seat here, reversing my call from six months ago.  Dem +1

California--Either long-time Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein gets re-elected to a sixth term or her Democratic primary challenger Kevin de Leon upsets her.  Either way, California stays in Democratic hands.  My money continues to be on Feinstein pulling it out fairly comfortably.

Connecticut--Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy will skate into a second term by a 2-1 margin.

Delaware--Democratic incumbent Tom Carper gets a fourth term by an even wider margin than Murphy's margin in Connecticut.

Florida-- The race that had me on the ropes six months ago continues to leave me guessing.  Republican Governor Rick Scott has made it official now, throwing his hat in the ring against Democratic Senator Bill Nelson.  Just looking at their electoral histories, Nelson would seem to have the edge, winning handily in all three of his prior contests while Rick Scott barely eked out wins in very Republican years in both of his gubernatiorial runs.  Furthermore, 2018 should be a pretty strong Democratic year, presumably enhancing Nelson's advantage.  But times have changed since Scott's gubernatorial runs as his popularity is now considerably higher, and his unlimited personal wealth will help him buy a lot of advertising to neutralize the generic Nelson/Democratic advantage.  I continue to tilt ever so narrowly on the side of a Scott victory here as the Democratic base in Florida has proven itself so unreliable in midterm elections, but certainly if the Democratic advantage among upscale suburbanites that has been the story of recent special elections holds in the midterms in Florida, Scott will have an extremely narrow path to victory.  I reserve the right to change my call on this one as the election gets closer, but as of now I'm still predicting Scott squeaks it out having learned my lesson to never underestimate him.  GOP gain.  Running total...even.

Hawaii--Democratic incumbent Mazie Hirono won't have to break a sweat to get a second term.

Indiana--A dogfight Republican primary was finally settled on Tuesday to determine the nominee against freshman Democrat Joe Donnelly.  The winner was wealthy businessman Mike Braun who got 41% of the vote while Congressmen Todd Rokita and Luke Messer evenly split the remainder.  Braun's lack of Washington stain probably made him the best candidate of the three to face Donnelly, but there are some unsavory details in his business career that were litigated in the primary and could cost him some votes.  Due to the favorable Democratic climate, Donnelly is by all means still in this race but there are few signs he's established the kind of bipartisan brand that can save him in this red state.  Hoosiers showed us they had an independent streak in the 2006 and 2008 cycles though and if that streak resurfaces in November, Donnelly could be spared.  As I said six months ago, Donnelly's ace in the hole is that his geographic base of support comes from northern Indiana, the most elastic part of the state which could decide the winner if it breaks comfortably for Donnelly.  Still, Braun's deep pockets will buy a lot of advertising and the pro-Donnelly college student turnout is likely to be depressed given that it's a midterm, so I gotta give a small edge to Braun until I see any evidence otherwise.  GOP pickup.  Running total....GOP +1

Maine--Independent Angus King is not technically a Democrat but he caucuses with them and his lack of party identification will cut in his favor as it has throughout his career in Maine politics, resulting in a slam-dunk second term for him.

Maryland--The Old Line State is fast becoming the most inelastically Democratic state in the country, especially for federal races.  And considering 2018 is shaping up to be a very Democratic year, incumbent Senator Ben Cardin should win by more than 20 points.

Massachusetts--Six months ago, I figured Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Warren would win a second term, but with an underwhelming margin. At this point, however, it's just hard to imagine the deep blue Bay State won't hand her a comfortable victory despite her mediocre approvals, simply as a protest to the deeply unpopular Trump.  Had Hillary won in 2016, I'm not entirely sure Warren would even keep her job.

Michigan--Here's another race where conditions have changed a lot in the last six months.  Neither Kid Rock nor Congressman Fred Upton will be running on the Republican side as the party had been hoping, leaving the GOP with dim prospects for taking down three-term Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow.  Their best bet is John James, a young black businessman with a military background who in many ways is a candidate straight out of central casting for the GOP, but his campaign has been very slow to gain momentum and early indicators suggest a tough slog for the Republicans generally in Michigan this year.  I was tilting towards Stabenow in this race at last check but now it's a full lean in the Democrat's direction.

Minnesota Race 1--Here's the easy race in the Gopher State.  Two-term Democrat Amy Klobuchar who has scored landslide victories in both prior Senate runs will come out smelling like a rose again, scoring a third term with a sweeping bipartisan coalition of support.

Minnesota Race 2--And here's the race that probably never should have happened.  Al Franken got blackballed out of the Senate without due process and now Democrats have to defend another seat that will be at least a little bit tenuous.  Former Lieutenant Governor Tina Smith was appointed to the seat following Franken's resignation, and I suspect she'll have little problem dispatching the primary challenge by Richard Painter next month.  She's probably favored for the general election too, but Minnesota is always a bit of a wild card and particularly so after the realignment it saw in 2016, with rural areas moving overwhelmingly towards Donald Trump.  My first impression of Smith has not blown me away, and in no way would I rule out an upset by Republican legislator Karin Housley who is challenging her.  Just four years ago, a backbencher state lawmaker from Iowa named Joni Ernst found her way to the U.S. Senate against an opponent expected to have it in the bag, and Housley doesn't appear to have the kind of political baggage that Ernst had when she won by eight points.  It's still odds-on for Smith though primarily because of the general Democratic lean of Minnesota and the likely strength at the top of the ticket with Klobuchar in the other Senate race.  I'll be curious to see the geographic breakdown of this race though and wouldn't be surprised if the map ends up similar to the 2016 Presidential map, with Smith's strength concentrated almost entirely in the metro area.  I hope the Democrats aren't caught overconfident and napping on this one.  They always seem to take Minnesota for granted only to be humbled over and over by an upset or a very narrow victory.

Mississippi Race 1--There was plenty of ambiguity six months ago whether incumbent Republican Roger Wicker would receive a primary challenge from right-wing gadfly Chris McDaniel.  But the resignation from senior Senator Thad Cochran has upended the drama expected to play out in the regularly scheduled 2018 Mississippi Senate election.  The bottom line is that Wicker should now have a clear lane to be comfortably re-elected in the Magnolia State.  In theory, Democratic House Minority Leader David Baria could put up a fight if he wins the Democratic nomination, but Wicker's noncontroversial brand of conservatism is unlikely to scare away rock-ribbed Mississippi Republicans.

Mississippi Race 2--Long-time Republican Thad Cochran timed his recent health-related retirement well for his party, as the special election in November will be a jungle primary from which the top-two vote-getters advance to a December runoff.  Appointed to fill Cochran's seat is Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, who will be the establishment choice for the special election with Chris McDaniel running to her right.  The Democrats scored a decent get with former Ag Secretary Mike Espy, but failed to get their top prospect in Brandon Presley.  The best-case scenario for Democrats would be McDaniel vs. Espy, but even that seems like it would be a huge longshot for them for a number of reasons.  Never say never as Doug Jones proved to us in Alabama five short months ago, but the same type of perfect storm would have to take hold for Republicans to piss this seat away.

Missouri--There have been some crazy developments in Missouri since my last round of Senate predictions, with the Republican Governor being charged with multiple felonies for blackmailing a mistress, and at least in theory these developments should help incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill in her pursuit of an improbable third term.  The Republican boy wonder, Attorney General Josh Hawley, has found himself in the awkward position of having to make a legal case against his own party's Governor, and it's sucking up some of the oxygen from his campaign, dividing loyalties within the party, and creating a negative association tide of headlines generally.  Republicans are getting nervous and an unnamed Missouri GOP official mused that he "wants Claire McCaskill to buy his lottery tickets for him".  The coronation is premature though as McCaskill's third victory is still more likely not to happen than to happen in the Show Me State as it sprints to the political right more each cycle.  She's proven herself wily enough to win twice in the past, but the state has only gotten more Republican since then and she's never established a personal brand that has won her enough bipartisan support to keep beating the odds.  If Jason Kander was running this cycle, I suspect he'd have a better chance of winning this seat for the Democrats, but I suspect Hawley still pulls this one out against McCaskill.  The race remains a tossup to be sure and it would be crazy to underestimate McCaskill completely, but I don't think enough damage has been done to Hawley, yet at least, to blunt his advantage.  GOP gain.  Running total:  GOP +2

Montana--You'd never know two-term Democrat Jon Tester was running for re-election in a state that went for Trump by 20 points based on his recent voting record and aggressive oppositional posture against the administration.  Nonetheless, Tester is the best-positioned of the bright-red-state Democrats to prevail, with State Auditor Matt Rosendale as his likeliest challenger but not exactly burning up the world right now and perhaps not even a sure thing in the primary.  It's possible Tester is overconfident and could still get caught flat-footed if Rosendale proves stronger than expected, but he's certainly not behaving like a man who fears losing in six months and the Senate race analysts appear to agree.  I continue to lean towards a Tester victory here, but definitely recommend both parties keep a close eye on this race as it's by no means in the bag.

Nebraska--This feels like the sleeper-race-that-could-have-been to me.  Freshman Republican Deb Fischer has very mediocre approval ratings and may well have proven vulnerable.  If former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey had attempted his comeback in 2018 instead of 2012, I think we just might have a race on our hands given the political climate.  Unfortunately for Democrats, they've been beaten down and demoralized to the point of incapacitation in Nebraska and haven't put up anything but token opposition for the fast-approaching primary.  Once in a very great while, token opposition proves itself worthy of a serious fight so I'm not taking this race entirely off the table just yet, but you can't win if you don't play and it appears that's the likeliest scenario this year leading to a second term for Fischer.

Nevada--Given the state of the map, Democrats have very few "likely pickups" despite the expected Democratic lean of the year.  Nevada is as close as they'll get, with Republican Senator Dean Heller shaping up as the underdog in his fight with Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen.  The affable Heller mustered up enough bipartisan strength to survive in 2012 by a one-point margin in a state trending Democratic.  It would be quite a trick if he was able to do it again in this environment with most polls showing him the underdog.  His best bet is catching the union-fueled "Reid machine" napping, but Democrats haven't had much of a problem with enthusing their base in the last year.   Heller may be able to keep it close but I'd be shocked if he pulled out a win.  Prediction: Dem gain.  Running total: GOP +1.

New Jersey--With the corruption trial behind him and ending with a hung jury, it seems likely the current political environment nearly assures that oily Democratic Senator Bob Menendez will get a third term simply based on partisan advantage in a blue state.  Had Hillary won last year, I think the Republicans would have an opening here against the less-than-wildly-popular Menendez, but New Jerseyians are so used to corruption and shadiness from their politicians that Menendez can likely point to his acquittal and get another mulligan.

New Mexico--What a difference a Presidential election makes!  If Hillary had won last year, I suspect the New Mexico Senate race featuring freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich would be right at the heart of the Senate battleground with one of a couple top GOP recruits challenging him.  Instead, Trump won in 2016 and Heinrich faces token opposition, not on anybody's radar for vulnerability and poised to win this fall without breaking a sweat.

New York--It's been a sketchy six months for Empire State Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who has ruffled some feathers in her attempt to reinvent herself as the leading Congressional figure of the #MeToo movement, being the first to call for Al Franken's scalp and saying she now thinks Bill Clinton should have been resigned for his sexual indiscretions.  She's made some enemies (including the Clintons) out of people who used to be friends and has shined a brighter light on her long history of shifting with the political winds to suit her ambitions.  None of this means she won't win re-election in a landslide come November, but a candidate who six months ago seemed like an interesting dark horse option for the Democratic nomination seems considerably less so now.

North Dakota--A few months ago, national Republicans were getting nervous that they were poised to gift Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp with a second term by failing to put up a top-tier challenger for her.  It was at that point they convinced Congressman At-Large Kevin Cramer to reconsider his prior vow to pass on the race, and they got their man.  The race is now very much at the forefront of the battleground again, and although Cramer is by no means a perfect candidate, he has the partisan advantage of running in a bright-red state that's only been getting redder.  A decade ago, a Democrat with an independent profile like Heitkamp would have had no problem coasting to re-election in a climate like this one with an electorate as elastic as North Dakota's has typically been, but the infusion of the oil economy into the state has made it that much heavier of a lift even for a popular Democrat like Heitkamp.  There are still enough elastic voters in the eastern part of the state to help her secure a second term, but in a midterm environment, it's harder to believe the turnout will be there among college students in Fargo and Grand Forks, who provided her the margin of difference in 2012 against Rick Berg, to save her this time, especially against a known entity like Cramer who's likely to tribalize voting patterns more than some of the token GOP opposition that Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan pummeled back in the day.  I don't underestimate Heitkamp and could still see her running away with this race rather comfortably, but for now I'm still leaning towards Cramer having a small advantage.  Prediction:  GOP gain.  Running total: GOP +2

Ohio--Democrat Sherrod Brown is well to the left of his Republican-trending state but has been fortunate enough to win in two very favorable Democratic environments in 2006 and 2012.  Even six months ago, I figured Brown would luck out again in 2018.  The race has changed since then as Brown's 2012 opponent Josh Mandel surprised everybody and decided not to run again.  The Republican primary on Tuesday instead produced an underwhelming but still victorious margin for Congressman Jim Renacci from northeastern Ohio.  Brown's economic populism plays relatively well with the Ohio electorate and helps score him some votes among culturally conservative Trump voters. It feels as though the race has moved even more in Brown's direction in the last few months, and the lack of enthusiasm Renacci saw in his primary win strengthens that argument.  It would be a great surprise at this point if the momentum swung away from Brown.

Pennsylvania--Six months ago, I predicted Democratic Senator Bob Casey would win a third term this November, but at least then it appeared to be part of the overall Senate battleground with Casey getting a top-tier challenge from Republican Congressman Lou Barletta.  As of now, few consider Pennsylvania to be part of the battleground anymore as Barletta's campaign has been a disappointment thus far from the GOP with few signs of momentum and a political environment in Pennsylvania that seems to dramatically favor Democrats.  Casey's overconfidence and lethargic 2012 campaign allowed a third-tier GOP challenger to hold him to single digits, so that's worth considering in not completely writing off Barletta, but it's also worth considering that Casey will likely benefit from continued parochial goodwill around his hometown of Scranton and in southwest Pennsylvania, areas that are otherwise trending Republican.  Couple that with what I expect will be a huge Democratic margin in suburban Philadelphia and Casey seems increasingly secure.

Rhode Island--In a likely Democratic year, Democrats should have no reason to spend a moment's energy worrying about Senator Sheldon Whitehouse winning a third term in this very blue state.

Tennessee--I'm guessing no Republican ever expected to be sweating the Senate race in Tennessee six months ago, but at least thus far former Democratic Phil Bredesen is making a race out of the open seat vacated by Republican Bob Corker.  Bredesen has plenty of bipartisan goodwill from his days as Governor while his tea-flavored Republican challenger, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, is polarizing and has made plenty of enemies even in her own party. Tennessee is not quite as heavy of a lift for Democrats as Alabama where Doug Jones prevailed last December, but it has moved further and further to the right in the last 15 years and doesn't have as large of a black population to serve as a solid Democratic base.  A lot of things would have to go right geographically for Bredesen to pull this out, improving Democratic margins substantially in the suburbs of Memphis and Nashville, winning outright in ancestrally Republican East Tennessee cities like Knoxville and Chattanooga, and winning back some of the rural Yellow Dog Democrat coalition in western and middle Tennessee that has shifted hard to the right since the dawn of the Obama era.  It's possible Bredesen can do this, and multiple polls have showed that he's doing just that, narrowly leading Blackburn in the early polls.  My gut tells me that tribal fault lines will emerge as the race unfolds and Blackburn will pull ahead in the clutch simply based on the partisan advantage in Tennessee, but there's not much room for error for a candidate with a reputation as a bomb-thrower.  At the outset, this race reminds me of the 2012 North Dakota Senate race, where polls early on and throughout the cycle showed Heidi Heitkamp performing well, but Democrats and election analysts kept thinking it was too good to be true and that the laws of political gravity would catch up.  They never did in North Dakota.  Heitkamp won.  And Bredesen may as well.  Just as in ND back then, I'm betting against it....but it's not unthinkable.

Texas--Presumably because of hatred for Ted Cruz by liberals, his Democratic challenger, Congressman Beto O'Rourke, has had some extremely impressive fund-raising reports and will be ready, willing, and able to run a strong race against Cruz.  If Texas Democrats had found a nominee with the kind of independent brand as Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, Cruz might be vulnerable as there have been numerous indications that the country club Republicans of suburban Texas are not at all fond of Trump and are open to a backlash vote against him in a way not seen in a generation in Texas.  But it's very hard to see the unapologetically progressive Congressman from El Paso being the man for the time in Texas as his profile and his geography seems all wrong for capturing the "Dallas debutante" vote that would likely prove key in any Democratic coalition capable of taking out Cruz.  This remains a race to watch, however, simply given the pile of cash O'Rourke has to work with and the general swing away from Trump-flavored Republicans that was seen in Texas in 2016.  Furthermore, Ted Cruz is still a massive douche and that won't do him a ton of favors.  At least for now though, I think a Democratic victory is Texas is no more likely than a Democratic victory in the Mississippi special election, which is also a huge long shot.

Utah--I predicted wrongly last October when I said if Mitt Romney decided to run for Senate in Utah to replace the retiring Orrin Hatch, the field would clear for him.  Utah's aggressively conservative nominating process denied Romney their endorsement, forcing the race into a primary.  Romney remains the heavy favorite in the Beehive State, where he's something of a legend, but I shouldn't underestimate Romney's ability to piss away a sure thing as he's been doing it for nearly a quarter century now.  But even if Republican state legislator Mike Kennedy somehow manages to beat Romney in the primary, either one should easily dispatch token Democratic opposition in this very Republican state.

Vermont--Another landslide victory by left-wing Independent Bernie Sanders should be the least surprising outcome on November 6th.  Bernie gets my vote for the Senator who scores the most lopsided margin of all 34 races.

Virginia--Had Hillary Clinton won the Presidency and Tim Kaine become her Vice-President, I suspect the Virginia Senate race determining Kaine's replacement would be at the epicenter of the 2018 battleground. Instead, Democratic freshman Kaine will be running for a second term and nobody considers him remotely vulnerable, particularly against the Republican nomination frontrunner, archconservative Corey Stewart.  My prediction is for Kaine to outperform the impressive victory by Democratic Ralph Northam in last November's gubernatorial election, winning statewide by double digits.

Washington--As Democratic as the Evergreen State has become, it's hard to imagine three-term Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell being vulnerable in any environment, but as with her previous three races, she's running with the partisan winds at her back again in 2018 and is likely to win a fourth term by more than 20 points.

West Virginia--The prospect of an upset in Tuesday's Republican primary by felonious coal baron Don Blankenship had Democrats positively giddy, but Blankenship imploded in the clutch and came in a distant third place.  Democrats are probably lucky that coal country GOP Congressman Evan Jenkins came up short to Attorney General Patrick Morrisey because Jenkins' parochial ties to conservative Democrats in coal country would have really proven challenging for Democratic Senator Joe Manchin to overcome in a state that is riding a rocket ship to the political right.  Had Blankenship won, I'd have given Manchin the narrowest of advantages, but against Morrisey, I remain skeptical that Manchin can overcome the partisan tide.  His voting record in the Senate during the Obama years will be heavily scrutinized and his authorship of anti-gun legislation makes him a uniquely vulnerable NRA target in a state where firearms fetishism runs especially strong.  Manchin should never be counted out as he prevailed comfortably in tough political climates in 2010 and 2012, but the state has become considerably less amenable to the Democratic brand since then as its coal economy has flatlined.  And even though Democrats did well in November 2017 statewide elections in Virginia as well as well a Congressional race in southwestern Pennsylvania in the spring of 2018, the rural counties bordering West Virginia voted much closer to the solid Republican margins Trump saw in 2016.  Maybe if it gets to be this time in October and Manchin has a double-digit lead, I'll finally be convinced he can hold this seat, but until then I will stand by my assessment that he's the most vulnerable Democratic Senator in the country.  Prediction: GOP gain.  Running total:  GOP +3

Wisconsin--The Badger State seems to vacillate with the prevailing political winds, and with the Democrats appearing to hold the hot hand in 2018, I'm increasingly confident that Democratic freshman Tammy Baldwin is elected to a second term.  Neither of her two Republican challengers, businessman Kevin Nicholson or state Senator Leah Vukmir, is a top-tier challenger and early polls suggest Wisconsin voters aren't interested in firing Baldwin.  This race is not yet a done deal since Republicans haven't picked a nominee, but Wisconsin is moving down the list of GOP pick-up opportunities fairly fast.

Wyoming--Not many Republican Senators are in a position to rest easy this fall, but John Barrasso is probably as close they'll get.  Even in Wyoming, however, the Democrats have a decent candidate with Gary Trauner, who came within a hair's breadth of winning the state's at-large Congressional district in 2006.  Barrasso will likely prove a tougher foe that scandal-plagued Barbara Cubin was in 2006 though.


So despite plenty of developments in the six months since my previous Senate predictions, I've only changed my call for one race and that's Arizona where I'm now leaning towards a Democratic pick-up.  But there are a half dozen races on the razor's edge where it's hard to discern a real advantage at this stage, which leads me to defer to traditional partisan leanings.  The hardest call of all right now is Florida, but given that Republicans almost always seem to pull it out in contested races in Florida, I'm standing by my Rick Scott prediction.  In the remaining states, campaigns will matter a lot on both sides and will likely mean the difference in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and perhaps plenty more.  It's not all unthinkable that Democrats could get another inside straight with this Senate class and actually win the Senate.  Hell, they could even enter 2019 with a 52-48 majority if they win every competitive race on the table, something they nearly did in both 2006 and 2012.  Right now that seems like too much to expect given how significantly Republican a handful of the states have trended that are being defended for Democrats but when I return in October with my final predictions for the season, my results could very well change a lot more than they did since last October.