2018 House Battlegrounds: Can The Democrats Pick Up The Lower Chamber?

A decade ago, I could have given detailed profiles of every Congressional district in the country and opined with more clarity on which direction I figured it to go and why.  But I never fully divested myself into the district map and renumbering that came after the last reapportionment.  With that in mind, I considered doing the sort of deep dive into House race predictions that I did at this time in 2006, but ultimately decided that it would be less time-consuming and more appropriate at this stage with so many races still in flux to break down this year's battleground races into three categories.  The first category is districts where I think the incumbent party is more likely than not to ultimately lose their seat.  In some cases, these are coin flips or gut calls based on the national environment.  The second category is districts where I think the incumbent party hangs on.  And the third category is "races to watch", seats that are not yet at the forefront of the House battleground, but where I believe there is potential for an upset given the political environment.  If 2018 ends up being an anti-Trump wave in these House races as many are speculating, you can expect some cannon fodder in places not currently on most people's radar where the tide sweeps out an incumbent who fancies himself or herself safe until very late in the cycle but then finds out otherwise.  I suspect quite a few of these flipped seats that Democrats pick up in 2018 will be rentals, poised to flip back either right away in 2020 or else 2022.  We saw dozens of those kinds of seats following the big Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008 and I expect more to come.  Anyway, here are my predictions:

Seats I Suspect Will Flip Party Control (Parentheses If Projecting Seat To Flip From Dem To GOP)
AZ-02 (OPEN--McSally)
CA-10 (Jeff Denham)
CA-39 (OPEN--Royce)
CA-45 (Mimi Walters)
CA-48 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (OPEN--Issa)
CO-06 (Mike Coffman)
FL-15 (OPEN--Ross) 
FL-27 (OPEN--Ros-Lehtinen)
IL-12 (Mike Bost)
IA-01 (Rod Blum)
IA-03 (David Young)
KS-02 (OPEN--Jenkins)
KS-03 (Kevin Yoder)
KY-06 (Andy Barr)
ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)
MI-07 (Tim Walberg)
MI-11 (Dave Trott)
MN-02 (Jason Lewis)
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
MN-08 (OPEN--Nolan) (flipping from Dem to GOP)
MT-AL (Greg Gianforte)
NE-02 (Don Bacon)
NJ-02 (OPEN--LoBiondo)
NJ-07 (Leonard Lance)
NJ-11 (OPEN--Frelinghuysen)
NY-19 (John Faso)
NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)
NY-24 (John Katko)
NC-09 (OPEN--Pettinger)
OH-01 (Steve Chabot)
PA-05 (OPEN--Meehan)
PA-06 (OPEN--Costello)
PA-07 (OPEN--Dent)
PA-14 (OPEN--Lamb) (flipping from Dem to GOP because of altered district lines)
PA-17 (Keith Rofshus) (Conor Lamb makes an even trade for safer district)
TX-23 (Will Hurd)
UT-04 (Mia Love)
VA-02 (Scott Taylor)
VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)
WA-08 (OPEN--Reichert)
WV-03 (OPEN--Ojeda)

I managed a net of 39 seats for Democrats here, well above the 23 that they need to take power, and gave them about two-thirds of the seats currently on the table in the agreed-upon battleground.  Even if the Democratic wave doesn't materialize to the magnitude expected, the GOP will struggle to limit their losses to less than 23.  And if the Democrats come reasonably close to sweeping the battlegrounds, as is often the case in wave elections, it's entire possible they could clear 50 new seats.

Battleground Seats I Suspect Will Stay With The Current Party
AZ-01 (Tom O'Halleran)
AZ-08 (Debbie Lesko)
AZ-09 (OPEN--Sinema)
AR-02 (French Hill)
CA-21 (David Valadao)
CA-25 (Steve Knight)
CA-50 (Duncan Hunter)
CT-05 (OPEN--Esty)
FL-06 (OPEN-DeSantis)
FL-07 (Stephanie Murphy)

FL-18 (Brian Mast)
FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo)
GA-06 (Karen Handel)
IL-06 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Rodney Davis)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IA-04 (Steve King)
KS-04 (Ron Estes)
MI-01(Jack Bergman)
MI-06 (Fred Upton)
MN-01 (OPEN--Walz)
MN-07 (Collin Peterson)
MO-02 (Ann Wagner)
NV-03 (OPEN--Rosen)
NV-04 (OPEN--Kiheun)
NH-01 (OPEN--Shea-Porter)
NJ-03 (Tom McArthur)
NJ-05 (Josh Gottheimer)
NM-02 (OPEN--Pearce)
NY-01 (Lee Zeldin)
NY-02 (Peter King)
NY-11 (Dan Donovan)
NY-27 (OPEN--Collins)
NC-02 (George Holding)
NC-13 (Ted Budd)
OH-12 (Troy Balderson)
OH-14 (David Joyce)
OH-16 (OPEN--Renacci)
PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick)
PA-08 (Matt Cartwright)
PA-16 (Mike Kelly)
TX-02 (Ted Poe)
TX-07 (John Culberson)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
VA-05 (OPEN--Garrett)
VA-07 (OPEN--Brat)
WA-03 (Herrera Beutler)
WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers)
WI-01 (OPEN--Ryan)
WI-06 (Glenn Grothman)
WI-07 (Sean Duffy)
WI-08 (Mike Gallagher)

I undoubtedly got the wrong call on some in both categories as most years, even in a wave, there are some unlikely survivors while other races break late against the incumbent.  For the most part, however, I've considered the situation at the top of the ballot in these states to determine what base turnout is likely to be and which states aren't likely to have the Democratic strength at the top of the ticket to pull downballot battlegrounds over the finish line.  North Carolina, for instance, is a state I expect will be a disappointment for Democrats in the House races since there are no Senate or gubernatorial races that could be expected to propel Democratic turnout.  And Wisconsin is a state that seems poised for a Democratic wave statewide but I suspect the gerrymander is strong enough to hold and keep potentially vulnerable GOP incumbents from being toppled.

Races To Watch Where An Upset Is In Reach
CA-42 (Ken Calvert)
CO-03 (Scott Tipton)

FL-13 (Charlie Crist)
FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
GA-07 (Rob Woodall)
IL-10 (Brad Schneider)
IN-02 (Jackie Walorski)
IN-09 (Trey Hollingsworth)
MD-06 (OPEN--Delaney)
MI-08 (Mike Bishop)
ND-AL (OPEN--Cramer)
OH-10 (Mike Turner)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
SC-01 (OPEN--Sanford)
SC-05 (Ralph Norman)
SD-AL (OPEN--Noem)
TX-06 (OPEN--Barton)

The last list may well end up including some races not at all on my radar even for "races to watch".  There's just no telling what might break late in a cycle like this, particularly with GOP turnout poised to collapse in states like New York, Pennsylvania, and California where Democratic blowouts are expected at the top of the ticket.  In the end though, I think Trump's popularity among the Republican base could save the situation from becoming too disastrous for Republicans.  If Trump finds a pet issue to whip the base into a frenzy about, as he's so often done in the past, that will likely motivate some Republican voters to show up who may have otherwise sat it out.  On the other hand, Trump may well pitch such a narcissistic hissy fit in the weeks before the election, seeing that it's not going his way, that he could choose to roll back his campaign efforts so as not to attach himself to "losers".

But at this stage of the cycle I'm convinced based on past precedent that Republicans are poised to take a drubbing on November, with very little chance of limiting their losses to less than 23 as is needed to maintain House control.  From a tactical standpoint heading into 2020, the best-case scenario for Democrats would be to come up just a few seats short of House control and thus not assume political power. With the political control that would come from winning the House outright, Trump will find a perfect foil in Democrats and, as we've seen time and time again over the years, the President usually wins the messaging war in a feud with a Congressional majority of the other party.  I reserve the right to adjust a few of these calls between now and November 6th based on late-breaking races but for now I think this is a pretty solid set of predictions.