Final Senate Race Predictions of 2020

There are a half dozen states this cycle that are challenging to predict in the Presidential race.  If anything, predicting this year's Senate races is even harder.  There are a number of highly competitive races but plenty in the second tier of competitiveness that could end up dropping in a much different direction than originally expected if Biden wins a sweeping national landslide.   With that in mind, something happened in battleground Senate races four years ago that I don't recall seeing before in a Presidential cycle.  A number of voters who didn't approve of Hillary Clinton nonetheless voted for her because they approved of Trump even less.  Yet a significant percentage of these voters appear to have hedged their bets by voting for Republican Senate candidates as a check against a hypothetical President Hillary Clinton, who just about everybody expected to win in 2016.  The most obvious examples of this came in Wisconsin (Ron Johnson) and Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey), neither of whom was expected to win but drew unexpected crossover support from suburban voters who went for Hillary.  Indiana (Todd Young) and Missouri (Roy Blunt) also elected Republican Senators who were considered underdogs going into election night 2016, presumably with the same theory of hedging against a Hillary win with a defiant Congress.  Since Hillary didn't win the Presidency, this hedging came with serious unintended consequences.

So what's the most likely scenario to expect the second time Donald Trump's at the top of the ballot and is heading into an election night where most people assume he's going to lose?  Will Biden's win come with the kind of downballot coattails for his party that usually accompany a big win on the Presidential line?  Or might voters nervous about an all-Democratic government behave like they did in 2016 and split their ticket by going for Republican Senators?  Ultimately I think it's a mix and match, with decisive Democratic wins in the states that go strongly Biden but second-guessing about giving Democrats too much power in the "reach seats", most of which are in very red states.  

But there's still definite potential to see 2020 turn into 1980, a year where an unpopular President went down to landslide defeat and saw his Democratic allies in the Senate get snuffed out along with him.  In 1980, virtually every battleground Senate race and a number of races that were not even really considered competitive all flipped to the Republicans on the coattails of Reagan's big victory.  Could that happen again?  Possibly, but there was one significant difference between the two cycles.  In 1980, Reagan peaked at exactly the right time, walking all over Jimmy Carter in a debate a week before the election and surging in the polls just in time for election day, carrying his party across the finish line on his back.  We saw something similar in 2012 where Obama surged to re-election in the final week of the campaign, helping the Democrats sweep just about every battleground Senate race including some races they weren't expected to win.  

As for Biden, I'm thinking he peaked too early.  Voters have had a month now to contemplate the possibility of the inevitable Biden presidency, and that length of time probably gave a faction of voters some butterflies.  How much power do they want Biden's party to have?  Particularly when it comes to the red states where the Democratic Senate candidates are competitive but still underdogs, it strikes me as less likely these voters will align with Democrats to the degree needed for the second coming of 1980.  But on the other hand, it's not 2016 anymore.  Biden has much lower unfavorable ratings than the deeply unpopular Hillary Clinton had, while Trump is the unpopular incumbent rather than the unpopular challenger as he was then.  Voters could well opt for a complete ideological rebuke of Trumpism, delivering Trump's opposition with complete rein of government to undo all they're dissatisfied with.  I'm not dismissing either possibility, or an even split between the two for that matter, but as is often the case with me, I'm leaning toward the more cautious side of the predictions equation.

Let's take a look, state by state.....

Alabama--While I still believe accidental Democratic incumbent Doug Jones is gonna get spanked by a double-digit margin on November 3rd, I'm pulling back a bit from August when I predicted Jones would do no better than a generic Democrat in the Yellowhammer State.  Jones has been running a pretty good campaign while his entitled GOP challenger Tommy Tuberville is holding very few public events, taking for granted that Trump's coattails and the state's generic Republican advantage will be enough to win.  It seems likely the state will be called for Tuberville at poll closing time, but I think Jones will hold a modest number of the crossover votes he got in the 2017 special election, particularly in places like Huntsville and suburban Birmingham.  Final Prediction:  Tuberville +13

Alaska--The Last Frontier is among the list of Democratic "reach states" I cited in my preamble, with polls indicating that Independent candidate Al Gross, who would likely caucus with the Democrats, within striking distance of first-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.  Alaska is the hardest state in the country to poll and results tend to come in more Republican than polling usually indicates, meaning Sullivan still has a definite edge.  Furthermore, I suspect a bit of a snap back to the GOP in this race following Biden's debate comments about transitioning away from the oil and gas industries in the years ahead.  That won't fly in Alaska, and you can be sure Sullivan is gonna do his best to make sure Gross owns those comments and puts him on defense in the final week of the campaign.   Final Prediction:  Sullivan +8

Arizona--It's all over but the crying for Republican incumbent Martha McSally in her effort to hang on to John McCain's old Senate seat which she was appointed to fill in 2018.  She's behind Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by high single-digits in the Grand Canyon State in a year where long-festering trendlines toward Democrats appear to be coming to a head.  Kelly is pretty close to a sure thing at this point, but it's unfortunate for Democrats that he'll be up again in 2022 in what will likely be a decidedly less favorable political environment.  Unless McSally makes the race considerably more competitive than is currently expected, I doubt McSally will be the Republican that gives Kelly a rematch two years from now.  Final Prediction:  Kelly +7

Arkansas--It's a shame that Democrats didn't run a challenger to Republican incumbent Tom Cotton.  It's not that Democrats would have any real chance of winning a federal statewide office in the Natural State at this point, but it would be interesting to see how close Democrats were capable of getting against Cotton in a strong national environment for the party.   Libertarian challenger Ricky Harrington will be the only competition that Cotton faces in 2020, and while he's unlikely to be a serious contender against one of the Senate's most conservative members, I bet he still wins a few majority-black counties along the Mississippi River delta who can't bring themselves to support Cotton.   Final Prediction:  Cotton +37

Colorado--It's over for Republican incumbent Cory Gardner in the Centennial State.  The national Republican Party triaged his race last week because he was so far behind in the polls.  Former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper may not be the most electric candidate on his party's rolodex but he has a track record of appealing to independents that positions him well to run up the score against Gardner, particularly in this Democratic-trending state where Biden looks poised to romp at the top of the ticket.  Final Prediction:  Hickenlooper +9

Delaware--One has to go back to 2000, a full generation ago, since the last time there was a contested federal race in the First State.  That streak will continue in 2020 with the quiet Delaware Senate race pitting incumbent Democrat Chris Coons against his QAnon-curious GOP challenger Lauren Witzke.  With favorite son Joe Biden at the head of the ticket, Coons will cruise to his easiest victory yet.   Final Prediction:  Coons by 26

Georgia (A)--If the Peach State ran its Senate races like normal states do, Republican incumbent David Perdue might be in serious trouble in his bid for re-election against Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff as Democrats seem poised to have a pretty solid year in Georgia.  But Perdue will likely be saved by the 50% threshold runoff rule, a holdover from the Jim Crow era, which means Ossoff not only has to win on election night, but must do so with 50% of the vote.  I'm not completely writing off this possibility depending on how brisk both turnout and demographic momentum ends up being in Georgia, but getting to 50% seems like a stretch for Ossoff.  And if there's a January runoff election, presumably with a President-elect Joe Biden weeks away from taking his Oath of Office, the enthusiasm gap for the runoff should greatly favor Republicans.  It certainly has in the past for Georgia runoff elections.  Ultimately though, I think the most likely scenario is a narrow Purdue win on election night either just above or just below the 50% threshold.  If it goes to a runoff, Purdue is a heavy favorite. I'll base my final prediction on the expectation of a 50% threshold though.  Final Prediction:  Purdue +3

Georgia (B)--While there's a decent chance the regular Senate election in Georgia ends up being settled by a January runoff, it's almost certain that the special Senate election in Georgia will be.  November 3rd will be a multi-candidate jungle primary to fill the seat held by appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler, with the top-two vote-getters going to a runoff.  Loeffler appears to have a narrow advantage over fellow Republican Doug Collins, who is ostensibly running to Loeffler's right, while Democrat Ralph Warnock is poised to face either Collins or Loeffler.  It's highly unlikely anybody gets to 50% as there are other Democrats expected to get single-digit support as well.  Just as in the Perdue race, the Republicans should have a significant enthusiasm advantage in the January runoff if Biden is the President-elect, meaning Loeffler has better odds than anybody else of winning this race and keeping the seat in GOP hands.  Final Prediction (for a likely runoff):  Loeffler +8

Idaho--While Democrats have made a race out of it in an impressive number of red state Senate races, there's no indication that Idaho is among them.  It's a shame that a candidate as strong as Democrat Paulette Jordan is going to waste in such a hopeless state, but there's no hint of traction in her race against Republican incumbent Jim Risch.  Barring a tectonic surprise, Risch should cruise to victory once again.   Final Prediction:  Risch +29

Illinois--Long-time Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin is a safe bet for re-election against third-rate GOP challenger Mark Curran, but expect his margin to be a mostly Chicago-land phenomenon.  Durbin, the former Congressman from Springfield, will probably do better than the average Democrat downstate, but his sweeping, comprehensive victories of 2002 and 2008 are a thing of the past after a generation of downstate Illinois consolidating to the GOP.  That's not to understate how big of a numerical victory Durbin will get though, as it will be huge.  Final Prediction:  Durbin +23

Iowa--The Beltway and media consensus is that incumbent Republican Joni Ernst is toast in the Hawkeye State after a surprisingly spirited campaign by Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield who holds a narrow lead in the majority of polls.  I'm still not convinced.  Iowa's demographics are such that pollsters having been underestimating Republican numbers for three consecutive cycles now, with working-class whites realigning to the GOP.   It's certainly possible that things will be different this time, with plenty of anxiety in farm country and the state's small cities appearing to be consolidating towards Democrats, but I still expect Republicans will outperform the polls in Iowa.  If I see a pattern of Greenfield pulling away in the next week, it's possible I'll reconsider, but as of today I think Ernst ekes it out.  Final Prediction:  Ernst +2

Kansas--Another dark red state where the Democrats have a puncher's chance, the long-standing Republican civil war between Kansas City-area moderates and rural conservatives in the Sunflower State is coming to head once again this cycle.  This year, former Republican legislator Barbara Bollier is the Democratic emissary and appears to be consolidating the support of the moderates who are increasingly realigning toward Democrats.  Wheat country Republican Congressman Roger Marshall is running for the Republicans, and while nowhere near as toxic as primary challenger Kris Kobach, is nonetheless underperforming according to the polls.  Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, the longest streak of single-party Senate delegations in the nation.  I expect that streak will continue as Bollier will have a hard time making up the last remaining points she currently trails, at least outside of the most lopsided imaginable electorate scenario where conservatives don't show up.  Hope springs eternal and Bollier's chance are certainly not zero, but she's a decided underdog.  Final Prediction:  Marshall +7

Kentucky--Given that he consistently has among the lowest approval ratings in the country even in his home state, most people will likely be surprised that Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is cruising to re-election in the Bluegrass State this year.  Well-funded Democratic challenger Amy McGrath looks good on paper but has underperformed throughout her brief political career, including her failed 2018 U.S. House race and her weak margin of victory in the Senate primary earlier this year.  She's gonna fall far short of victory in the race against McConnell, primarily because Kentucky has become such a Republican stronghold in the last generation.  Trump may be flagging nationally but is still popular in Kentucky and throughout much of Appalachia, and his coattails will alone drag McConnell comfortably across the finish line to wield his next-level cynicism on the Senate floor for another six years.  Honestly though, McConnell would overcome his lack of popularity and prevail even without Trump coattails simply because of the (R) next to his name.  Final Prediction:  McConnell +22

Louisiana--I didn't realize it when I did my initial round of Senate profiles in August, but election night in the Pelican State is technically a jungle primary, with multiple candidates on the ballot and potentially heading for a December runoff.  I doubt it'll come to that though as Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy seems poised to get more than 50%.  That reduces the prospects of the promising leading candidate for the Democrats, Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins, from slim to none for an election night victory.  If he holds Cassidy to less than 50%, which is unlikely, Perkins' prospects would be no less bleak in the runoff.  Final Prediction:  Cassidy +23

Maine--While it's never wise to completely write off long-time Republican Senator Susan Collins, every indication that this year will be her Waterloo.   Maine appears to be swinging hard to the Democrats this year and Collins has likely danced with Trump more times than voters are comfortable with.  I initially feared that Collins' opposition to the Amy Coney Barrett hearings would feed into the "independent" image that Collins has so successfully crafted for herself in the last 24 years, but polls are pretty consistently showing leads for Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.  Now Maine is a heavily white working-class state so it's possible Collins voters are being undersampled in the rural northern reaches of the state, but Collins would really have to pull a rabbit out of her hat to hang on at this point.  National Republicans seem to agree she's probably toast.  Final Prediction:  Gideon +4

Massachusetts--Democratic Senator Ed Markey should skate into a second full term against his fourth-rate GOP challenger, attorney Kevin O'Connor.  The Bay State is brutal territory for Republicans even in the best possible year, and with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in 2020, this year ain't that.  Final Prediction:  Markey +34

Michigan--One of the only Democratic Senate seats where there remains some degree of uncertainty is the Wolverine State where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is underperforming Biden at the top of the ticket.  Republican challenger John James, who did better than expected against Senator Stabenow in 2018, is cleverly playing the role of a bipartisan champion to the point of potentially confusing low-information voters who may think because he's black and because Peters is the middle-aged white guy that James is actually the Democrat in the race.  Ultimately I think the partisan tide favoring the Democrats, for Biden particularly and in Michigan specifically, pulls Peters across the finish line somewhat comfortably, but if Peters underperforms polling as much as Stabenow did two years ago, then this race truly is a toss-up.  Final Prediction:  Peters +4

Minnesota--There are conflicting data points on whether Democratic incumbent Tina Smith has a race on her hands or not in the Gopher State.  Republican challenger Jason Lewis is being outspent 4-1 and seems an unlikely candidate to generate real momentum in a cycle like this one, but I also doubt that the anonymous Smith is making any real impact on voters with her cash and advertising advantage.  The tide at the top of the ticket makes me doubt this will be Lewis's year, but I continue to believe most people will be shocked that this race ends up as close as I suspect it will, with the Twin Cities metro area singularly propping up Smith enough to drag her past the finish fine.  Final Prediction:  Smith +4

Mississippi--Lurking in the background of conversations about competitive Senate races is the Magnolia State, where incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith is going for her first full term in a rematch with Democrat Mike Espy, who put forth a strong showing against Hyde-Smith in a 2018 special election.  Much like the similarly named Senator from Minnesota cited above, Hyde-Smith hasn't made much on an impression on Mississippi voters and might be vulnerable if she wasn't in such an inelastically Republican state on a year where Donald Trump's at the top of the ballot.  Given the comparatively favorable national environment, Espy could theoretically outperform the Democratic baseline, but it would still be surprising if he could match the 8-point margin of defeat he managed two years ago in a higher turnout Presidential election cycle.  Final Prediction:  Hyde-Smith +12

Montana--The heavyweight battle between the Steves in Big Sky Country is holding out as competitive longer than I expected it to back in August, largely because Trump's weakness at the top of the ticket seems poised to hold the incumbent President to single digits, creating less of a headwind for downballot Democrats.  Still, most polls give Republican incumbent Steve Daines small leads within the margin of error that I suspect will hold.  Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is by no means out of this race and I wouldn't fall out of my chair if he ekes out a win on November 3rd, but he's a minor underdog, albeit substantially less of one that I predicted in the summer.  Final Prediction:  Daines +3

Nebraska--There's a reason why Republican incumbent Ben Sasse had the nerve to make blisteringly critical comments about Trump earlier this month despite being up for re-election this year.  His would-be Democratic challenger Chris Janicek's history of sexual misconduct led to the party disavowing his candidacy, meaning Sasse is running unopposed for all intents and purposes.  In fact, it's entirely possible that Libertarian candidate Gene Siadek could outpoll the Democrat in the race, particularly if there are pro-Trump Republicans who refuse to continue supporting Sasse after the anti-Trump broadside.  Either way, the disorganized opposition will too be divided to stand in Sasse's way of re-election and I suspect he'll still get well over 50% in the three-way race.  Sasse seems to think he's setting himself up to be the future of a post-Trump Republican Party but I have serious doubts whether a Republican of Sasse's pedigree will capture the imagination of Republican primary voters again anytime soon.  Final Prediction:  Sasse +28

New Hampshire--There was little doubt Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen had the whip hand for winning a third term this cycle, but the bitterly divided Republican primary for her challenger really set her up for a lay-up victory this year in the typically competitive Granite State.  Republican challenger Corky Messner is likely to get crushed by double digits.  Final Prediction:  Shaheen +17 

New Jersey--One could imagine a defensive Democratic year when incumbent Senator Cory Booker might have a fight on his hands, but 2020 will not be that year and Booker is poised to dominate his low-profile GOP challenger Rik Mehta.   Final Prediction:  Booker +19

New Mexico--Democrats have been on a long roll in the majority Hispanic Land of Enchantment and I expect their winning streak to continue in this year's open Senate seat vacated by Democrat Tom Udall.  Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan is Udall's would-be successor, and while polls show his GOP challenger, Albuquerque TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, not as far behind as I expected, the safe money remains on Lujan for a low double-digit victory.  Final Prediction:  Lujan +11

North Carolina--Back in August, I predicted the closest Senate race in the country would be in the Tar Heel State, where unpopular Republican incumbent Thom Tillis was trailing Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham.  At the time, I argued that the fundamentals of the race pointed to narrowing polls in the stretch and a photo finish.  But an October surprise came with the revelation of Cunningham's marital infidelity over the course of this campaign, putting a major dent in Cunningham's Captain America image.  It seemed as though Cunningham was in a ton of trouble, but polling since the scandal broke has not shown a fundamentally changed race, with most polls still indicating a small lead for Cunningham.  It amazes me that North Carolinians apparently view Tillis that negatively that they're even willing to tolerate the sleazy cheating antics of Cunningham over another Tillis term, particularly given the state's general conservative lean.  Given the lack of indication of any restored momentum for Tillis, I will continue to predict a very close race with Cunningham narrowly prevailing.  Just as in the Presidential race, I suspect Republicans will outperform the polling by a point or two, but in this case not enough to save Tillis.  Final Prediction:  Cunningham +1

Oklahoma--Television news personalities seem to be hot commodities for long shot races this year, and Democratic TV newswoman Abby Broyles, who is barely of age to run for the Senate, is the party's emissary for a run against geriatric long-time GOP incumbent Jim Inhofe in the Sooner State.  Broyles has zero chance of victory in one of the nation's most conservative states, but I'll be curious to see if she is able to outperform the traditionally anemic performance of recent Democratic Senate nominees this cycle.  Final Prediction:  Inhofe by 27

Oregon--The Beaver State has become a nearly impenetrable Democratic stronghold over the last generation so Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley was poised for an easy victory in pursuit of his third term no matter who the Republicans put up, but QAnon extremist Jo Rae Perkins as the GOP emissary will really make Merkley's job easy this cycle.  Nonetheless, the state's escalated regional polarization still likely means that every county east of the Cascades, along with several in southwestern Oregon, will vote Perkins exclusively because of the (R) next to her name.  Final Prediction:  Merkley +20

Rhode Island--Not much to say about this race other than long-time Democratic incumbent Jack Reed should skate into his fifth term against token GOP challenger Allen Walters, whose party rescinded its endorsement of him after a domestic violence incident from last year made headlines.  Final Prediction:  Reed +33

South Carolina--Back in August, I predicted this race would quickly fall out of the battleground as the Republican partisan advantage in the Palmetto State was just too strong for plucky Democratic challenger Jamie Harrison to overcome in his epic quest to take down high-profile Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham.  In the end, I still think that will be the case, but damn if Harrison hasn't exceeded my wildest expectations.  Most polls show the race dead even, presumably with the leftward swing of the Charleston area helping Harrison turn the state nominally competitive, although one recent poll has indicated Graham has opened up a lead.  Harrison has gone so far as to hype a third-party challenger who has recently dropped out of the race simply as a means of skewing conservative votes away from Graham.  This kind of clever gambit to split the opposition may well be needed for Harrison to eke out even the narrowest win in South Carolina, and it's worth a shot but I still expect he'll fall short.  Particularly after Graham's aboutface on the Supreme Court nomination weeks before an election, I've been aching to see him unseated.  I'm still holding out hope it will happen, but I'm expecting South Carolina is just too far beyond a Democrat's grasp in all but a "Roy Moore-type situation", and for whatever Lindsey Graham's sins may be, he's not there.  Final Prediction:  Graham +3

South Dakota--The Mount Rushmore State has swung sharply to Republicans in the Trump era, and it was already a red state before Trump.  That should help Republican incumbent Mike Rounds coast to a second term against lightweight Democratic challenger Daniel Ahlers.  Final Prediction:  Rounds +30

Tennessee--The Democratic Party of the Volunteer State, such as there still is one, couldn't get their preferred candidate across the finish line in his primary, and face the daunting prospect of an open-seat race (Republican incumbent Lamar Alexander is retiring) with invisible Senate candidate Marquita Bradshaw.  The Republican candidate, former US Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty, should coast to a sweeping and comprehensive victory.  That would likely have happened even against the Democrats' preferred recruit as Tennessee has become one of the most impenetrably Republican states in the country, but when Bradshaw became the Democratic nominee, this race unequivocally dropped off the board.  Final Prediction:  Hagerty by 28

Texas--For the second cycle in a row, a Senate race in the Lone Star State has become competitive.  Back in August, I recognized Republican incumbent John Cornyn's race as being on the periphery of the battleground given the state's abrupt shift towards bipartisanship. While the race still leans to Cornyn, he's not exactly behaving like a guy expecting an easy win of late, recently volunteering to a reporter that he's disagreed with Trump on a number of issues over the years but decided not to pick a fight with him.  Somebody cruising to re-election doesn't say stuff like that a month before the election.  And sure enough, early voting numbers are showing a blistering spike in turnout coming from the exact kinds of places where Cornyn would least want to see them.  Ultimately I suspect Cornyn has enough goodwill with upscale suburban voters to outperform Trump and win the state modestly.  Most polls back that up, but we're in uncharted territory here with the fast pace of change in Texas and the prospect of Democrat MJ Hegar pulling out a win is entirely within the realm of possibilities.  Whatever happens, it's a very safe prediction that this will be Cornyn's closest race yet. Final Prediction:  Cornyn +5

Virginia--I went into the 2014 midterm cycle expecting Democrat Mark Warner to score a win of comparable size and breadth to his 2008 landslide.  Instead, he eked out a 1-point win in a race few expected would ever be close.  I'm much more confident of Warner's dominance this cycle, running against a third-rate GOP challenger in Daniel Gade and polls confirming a huge lead.   Don't expect to see any Warner strength in the Shenandoah Valley or southwest Virginia as we saw in past cycles though as that part of the state has permanently realigned to the GOP even as the state's population centers have consolidated for Democrats.   Final Prediction:  Warner +18

West Virginia--I had forgotten until recently that tough-guy populist Richard Ojeda had been the preferred Democratic candidate in this year's Senate primary but lost to environmental activist Paula Swearingen.  Ojeda would have been crushed against inoffensive GOP incumbent Shelly Moore Capito in the increasingly dark red Mountain State, but wouldn't have gotten the brutal spanking that Swearingen is about to be handed as the fierce critic to the state's powerful coal industry.  Swearingen definitely provides West Virginia voters a "choice", but it's a choice that will be soundly rejected in this extraction industry-friendly state.  Final Prediction:  Capito by 41

Wyoming--I saved the two most lopsided races for last.  Coincidentally, the race in Wyoming presents another extreme long shot environmental activist running as the Democratic nominee in a coal-producing state.  And just like in West Virginia, that's a formula for a bruising electoral defeat.   Democrat Marev Ben-David will get trounced by Republican Cynthia Lummis in this open seat vacated by long-time Republican Senator Mike Enzi.   Final Prediction:  Lummis by 40

Either I'm very stubborn when it comes to sticking to my original predictions about a race or else I'm just that good in predicting which states will be competitive months in advance, but none of my predictions have changed since August on any individual races.  Once again, I'm being conservative in guessing Democratic gains because I still think polls are undercounting noncollege white Republicans just as they did in the last three cycles.  It's the reason I'm one of the few at this point who still believe Joni Ernst will pull it out in Iowa.  But I'm still predicting the Democrats pick up four seats, and losing a seat only in Alabama, which will give them 50 seats and presumably a majority if Biden is elected President.  

It's entirely conceivable that Democrats could run the table in the competitive seats and the reach states, picking up as many as a dozen seats.  That would require Republican turnout to absolutely crater nationally and I don't see that with Trump's continued popularity with the party base.   Seems like most realistic elections analysts would only bet on five or at most six Democratic gains here due to complicating variables such as the runoff requirement in the Georgia races.  I suspect given how heavy of a lift it would be to pick off most of these reach states, the Democrats will consider it a good night if they win enough seats to dethrone Mitch McConnell from his majority.  Plus, I don't think most Democrats really want the responsibility of packing the Supreme Court on their shoulders, so winning a bare majority of 50 seats would give them a measure of deniability in explaining to voters in subsequent cycles why they weren't able to pull it off.