Final 2022 Governor's Race Predictions

As of this writing, we're down to nine days before election day 2022, but of course by now it's a safe bet that at least a quarter of the overall votes have already been cast.  I'm not a big fan of early voting, or from gleaning any tea leaves based on early voting data given that Democrats tend to frontload their vote tally by voting early while Republicans hold out until election day and then run up their numbers above and beyond the wildest expectations.  Thus far, however, in the two states where early voting numbers tend to the be most predictive, indications are mediocre at best in Nevada and devastatingly lackluster in Florida.  If Democrats aren't even able to run away with early voting compared to the previous couple of cycles, it doesn't speak well for what's coming on the evening of November 8th.  Polling has been all over the place and it's hard to put too much value on it after how bad polls were across the board in 2020.  It could well be that the pollsters' likely voter models are too tight and there really is a shy Roe vote bubbling under the surface, but with each passing week it's looking more likely that this will be a conventional midterm cycle where the party in power takes a beating to some degree. Democrats aren't as overexposed as they were in 2010 and will thus not lose nearly as many seats as they did that year, but they're still more likely that not to be facing a pretty bad November.  Let's see how that is likely to pertain in this year's 36 gubernatorial elections.....

Alabama--When Republican Governor Kay Ivey publicly trashed the anti-vaxxers last year, I was pretty confident she'd be crushed in the primary if she chose to run for another gubernatorial term, but Ivey managed to handily prevail even in this most conservative state.  I didn't closely follow the primary but am curious how Ivey managed to pull off a victory being on the wrong side of the GOP's activist base. Now she faces token Democratic opposition from Democrat Yolanda Flowers and is poised to coast into a second full term.  Prediction:  Ivey by 34.

Alaska--There's been little in the way of polling to provide any clear answers, but Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavey seems likely to have the upper-hand in a multi-candidate field that includes Democrat Les Gara and former Independent Governor Bill Walker who, after getting elected in 2014, was so unpopular four years later that he dropped out of the race weeks before the election hoping to benefit the Democratic nominee.  It's doubtful that Walker's popularity has recovered enough since then to overcome Dunleavey's built-in advantage, but a complete lack of public polling nonetheless leaves this one partially open to surprise, especially when factoring in ranked-choice voting.  Prediction:  Dunleavey by 10.

Arizona--Another of the marquee gubernatorial races, the open seat vacated by two-term GOP Governor Doug Ducey is looking to be considerably closer than Democrats hoped when Republicans nominated hard-right newswoman Kari Lake.  Ultimately though, the only surprise to me is that anybody believed Lake would be a disqualifying figure in today's political environment.  It's hard to know how many of Lake's voters actually believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump as was the centerpiece of her primary campaign, but the media and elitist insiders always overestimate the number of people who actually care about this issue.  The bottom line is that Lake has provided an eloquent platform for her brand of populist conservatism that has the same kind of appeal as Trump's abrasive devil-may-care rebelliousness had, and her litigation of border security in this border state was always gonna be powerful in rallying a faction of voters into her column even if they're not buying the idea that Biden wasn't really elected President.  As for Lake's Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, she seemed like a very good candidate on paper but made one of the most head-smacking errors in judgment of the 2022 campaign cycle when she refused to debate Lake, making herself look cowardly and unfit for the rigors of the office.  Most polls are tied, but there's no question that Lake has the momentum.  As in so many other states, it will likely come down to how many Hispanic voters have abandoned the Democratic Party, which is hard to model without seeing election night results.  This is another race that the Democrats will lose their minds about if Lake ends up winning, and right now I suspect that outcome is more likely than not.  Prediction:  Lake by 1.

Arkansas--The realignment of Arkansas was complete several cycles ago and there's not even any semblance of competition anymore in statewide races.  Former Trump administration flack Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised for a dominating victory to the gubernatorial post held by her father a generation ago.  Democratic challenger Chris Jones will be even more poorly positioned to put up a fight than other recent Democratic emissaries for statewide office in the Natural State.  Prediction:  Sanders by 36.

California--I think it's fair to say that 2018 will be looked back at as the year the Democratic Party peaked in California, with factions of the party's dominating coalition subsequently cleaving off in the cycles to come.  To be sure, there will be increasing numbers of residents likely to balk at the state's muscularly progressive policy program, possibly enough to pull out a win in the perfect storm, but don't expect that to happen in 2022.  Incumbent Democrat Gavin Newsom easily held off a weak recall effort last year and is positioned for a healthy re-election to a second term this fall against his Republican challenger, state Senator Brian Dahle.  Prediction:  Newsom by 32.

Colorado--Democratic Governor Jared Polis has managed to compile an enviable performance record in the Rocky Mountain State and goes into his re-election campaign as a very heavy favorite for a second term.  That was no sure thing four years ago for the liberal and openly gay former Congressman from Boulder, but he has solid approval ratings in the increasingly blue-leaning Colorado and should have no problem overcoming his GOP challenger Heidi Ganahi, the best the party could do with its diminished bench in the state.  Prediction:  Polis by 14.

Connecticut—While the Nutmeg State has been reliably blue for a generation now, the last three gubernatorial races have all been relative nail-biters as plenty of centrist voters unwilling to vote Republican federally are willing to do so at the state level.  With that in mind, I suspect incumbent Democrat Ned Lamont will prevail more persuasively this year in his rematch with Republican Bob Stefanowski who got within 3 points four years ago.  Lamont’s been getting decent marks for his stewardship and lives in a state where more voters are likely to respond viscerally to the Dobbs ruling.  Prediction:  Lamont by 13.

Florida—Incumbent Republican showboater Ron DeSantis was already poised for a decisive win against his challenger, Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist who’s been gaming to get his old job back for more than a dozen years now, but now DeSantis is poised to benefit from a rally-around-the-flag effect in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian that will likely give him a further bounce.  Crist picked a bad year to attempt a comeback and since he couldn’t beat the unpopular Rick Scott in 2014, he was never well-positioned to topple the more popular DeSantis even as the retiree pipeline continues to make the Sunshine State a little more Republican each passing year.  Prediction:  DeSantis by 11.

Georgia—No matter how abrupt the realignment of the Peach State into the Democratic column ended up being after the trio of big Democratic wins in 2020, I always expected Republican Governor Brian Kemp would prevail in his rematch with Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams this year.  This was especially true after Kemp stood up to Donald Trump last year yet still crushed his competition in this year's GOP primary.  Now Kemp looks like the moderate elder statesman who would consolidate Republicans, no matter how annoyed many of them were with him, while winning back a number of Biden-voting independents and country club GOP moderates who defected in 2020.  Furthermore, Stacey Abrams was always wildly overrated as a politician, venturing into "election denial" territory after her loss to Kemp in 2020 and pressing forward with a muscularly progressive campaign this year despite living in a state that's still pretty conservative.  There's no denying that the machine Abrams built and later fortified was fiercely effective in bringing about the Democrats' 2020 wins, but Abrams was never poised to be equally as effective as the face of that movement.  Now, as Abrams dabbles in wildly unpopular topics like slavery reparations in the final weeks of the campaign, it's quickly becoming a question of whether she will do so much damage to the entire Democratic ballot that Herschel Walker ends up riding Kemp's coattails to more than 50% of the vote and an outright election day victory on November 8th.  It's not at all far-fetched at this point. Prediction:  Kemp by 10.

 

Hawaii—Even unpopular Democratic heads of state in the Aloha State seem to always get reelected based on the islands’ inexplicably reflexive tendency toward the Democratic Party.  Two-term Democrat David Ige has never been Mr. Popularity but is term-limited out anyway, leaving an open seat in which his Lieutenant Governor and fellow Democrat Josh Green is running.  Perennial GOP candidate Duke Aiona is the challenger for the third time in the last four cycles and, unless I’m missing something in this low-profile race, Hawaiians should respond predictably and elect the Democrat by a bruising margin.  Prediction:  Green by 33.

Idaho—Just as Hawaii is a lay-up for the Democrats, the Gem State should be equally predictable for the Republicans.  First-term incumbent Brad Little faced a Trump-endorsed primary challenge from his right (from his own Lieutenant Governor no less!) but prevailed and heads into the general election effectively assured of a crushing win against his token Democratic challenger, college professor Stephen Heldt.  Prediction:  Little by 43.

Illinois—First-term Democrat J.B. Pritzker is running for reelection as a heavy favorite in the Land of Lincoln against his GOP challenger, State Senator Darren Bailey.  Even though this race is poised to be a blowout, expect to see Bailey win something pretty close to a clean sweep of downstate counties while Pritzker dominates in Chicagoland.  It was inevitable that Illinois politics would eventually break down this way to a degree, but the degree to which Democrats realigned the staunchly Republican upscale suburbs of Chicago along the way was definitely less predictable.  Expect to see a close approximation of the Biden map in Pritzker’s victory.  Prediction:  Pritzker by 15.

Iowa—In retrospect, I suspect the 2018 midterm cycle will be looked back upon as the last cycle when Iowa was a genuinely purple state before realigning in the direction of Missouri and other red states with similar white working class-heavy demographic profiles.  And even in 2018, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds pulled off a surprise 3-point win against her favored Democratic challenger.  The Hawkeye State shows all signs of consolidating further into the GOP column four years later and Reynolds is poised for a much cleaner re-election win this fall against underfunded Democratic challenger Deidre DeJear.  Prediction:  Reynolds by 18.

Kansas--One of the bigger surprises on election night 2018 was Democrat Laura Kelly prevailing in a three-way race for Kansas Governor, with that year's GOP emissary being deemed too conservative for one of the nation's most dependably Republican states.  Four years later, Kelly is running for re-election and I'm going into my prediction with a significant polling deficit and little sense of the state of the race.  On one hand, Kansas seems to be inching leftward, fueled by the upscale suburbs of Kansas City, and it's not at all inconceivable that Kelly could replicate her 2018 coalition.  On the other hand, she has a less controversial Republican challenger this cycle with Attorney General Derek Schmidt and the state's reflexive GOP lean could prove harder to crack, particularly in a more conservative year.  Last summer's abortion rights vote certainly mapped out a path to victory for Kelly, and I wouldn't be overly surprised if she was able to capitalize on it, but absent much hard data telling me otherwise, I'm deferring to the fundamentals and predicting that she gets replaced by Schmidt.  Prediction:  Schmidt by 3.  (GOP +1)

Maine—Controversial former Republican Governor Paul Le Page decided to return to Maine after exiling in Florida after his second term, and he’ll be challenging the woman who replaced him, Democrat Janet Mills, who is now running for her own second term.  Le Page outperformed expectations in both of the strong Republican years that he ran last decade, but never got 50% as he always slid into office amidst divided opposition.  Particularly in the era of ranked-choice voting which Maine has now, Le Page looks like a serious underdog, with polling bearing that out so far.  I’ve learned to never underestimate Le Page’s ability to pull off surprise victories, but I still think Mills is quite a bit more likely to get a second term as Le Page is to get a third term.  Prediction:  Mills by 7.

Maryland—Despite being one of the most Democratic states in the country, Republican Larry Hogan has served as its (relatively popular) Republican Governor for the last two terms but is bowing out this year, for which the Democrats are probably pretty lucky.  The Democrats lucked out even more when the GOP chose hard-right election denier Dan Cox as their nominee for 2022.  A closely contested Democratic nomination fight found former Robin Hood Foundation CEO Wes Moore prevail, and every indication is that Moore is poised for a dominating win against his untenable opponent.  Expect turnout to be light however.  Prediction:  Moore by 30.  Dem Gain (Even)

Massachusetts—Another deep blue state with another retiring moderate Republican Governor.  Charlie Baker is throwing in the towel after two terms, leaving an open seat that seems very likely to change partisan hands.  Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey emerged victorious in her primary and would really have to mess up to lose to her GOP challenger, former state representative and losing 2018 U.S. Senate candidate Geoff Diehl.  With the obvious “Martha Coakley” caveat spoken for, reproductive rights are a big deal in Massachusetts and it would be pretty tough for Diehl to win in a cycle with the Dobbs ruling backdrop.  Prediction:  Healey by 20.   (Dems +1)

Michigan—A year ago, I wouldn’t have expected to go into the 2022 midterms with Michigan Democrat Gretchen Whitmer well-positioned for a second term, but for most of this cycle it certainly seemed as though Whitmer was poised to cruise to re-election against a lackluster slate of GOP challengers.  That's become slightly less clear in the last month as the race seems to be trending toward the 2020 fundamentals.  Republican challenger Tudor Dixon often comes across as a right-wing nut, but she's put forward a more eloquent litigation of Whitmer's first term than anticipated in the last month and appears to have made a contest out of this race.  If Whitmer hangs on, as I still think she will, I expect the margin of difference will come from the Grand Rapids area, which has been trending blue in recent cycles to help compensate for so much other territory that's moved the other direction in the last decade.  Prediction:  Whitmer by 3.

Minnesota--Four years ago, Democrat Tim Walz won an open-seat election by 10 points in a very strong Democratic year in the Gopher State.  Walz was a heavy favorite to be re-elected, but there are signs of vulnerability due to a combination of Minnesota-specific events, a growing ideological split between moderates and progressives in the state, and the wild card of two marijuana-themed minor parties that could split the vote in a way that imperils Walz.  Republican challenger Scott Jensen is not a particularly impressive and has pivoted wildly over the past two years from a deal-making suburban moderate in the legislature to a raging anti-vax ideologue who wrestled the party's gubernatorial nomination and then back to a center-right consensitarian in the general election, but he's still managed to position himself with a path to victory.  With a little bit of well-timed anti-DFL backlash and quite a bit of luck with third-party spoilers, it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world if Jensen pulled off the upset.  Right now though, I'm betting Walz ekes out a slim victory based on the same strong numbers in Hennepin County suburbs that saved Hillary in Minnesota in 2016.  Prediction:  Walz by 2.

Nebraska—With two-term GOP incumbent Pete Ricketts retiring, it was a dogfight for the Republican nomination to replace him and former University of Nebraska regents director Jim Pillen narrowly prevailed.  In the Cornhusker State, the Republican nomination is the only election that counts as the Democratic nominee, state Senator Carol Blood, will be left as a blood stain underneath Pillen’s bootheel by Nebraska voters, although Blood’s home base in suburban Omaha might support her enough to hold down GOP margins from what they may have been a generation ago.  Prediction:  Pillen by 27.

Nevada--Just as I believe 2022 is not gonna be the Democrats' year in the Silver State's Senate race, I also believe Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is in big trouble in his bid for re-election.  Sisolak's Republican challenger, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, has a narrow edge in most available public polling just as Adam Laxalt does in the Senate race.  More than any other state in the country, early voting data tells us the majority of what we need to know about how the race will end in Nevada, meaning it should be pretty clear the weekend before the election if Democrats are poised to match expectations or not in the state.  However, the wild card for 2022 is that there's a real chance that plenty of registered Democrats (particularly Hispanics) and certainly an outsized portion of independents will be voting Republican this year.  Based on everything I've seen though, it's hard to argue that Lombardo doesn't have an early edge in unseating Sisolak.  Prediction:  Lombardo by 2  GOP gain (Even)

New Hampshire—One of the biggest dodged bullets Democrats got this cycle was when the Granite State’s popular GOP Governor Chris Sununu declined to challenge vulnerable Democrat Maggie Hassan in the U.S. Senate race.  Sununu is instead opting for another two-year term as New Hampshire Governor, and after a dominating win with considerable downballot coattails in 2020, Sununu is well-positioned for an encore against this year’s Democratic challenger, state senator Tom Sherman.  Prediction:  Sununu by 26.

New Mexico—In 2020, GOP newscaster Mark Ronchetti put up a much stronger fight than expected in his Senate race against Democrat Ben Ray Lujan, holding Lujan to a modest 6-point margin of victory.  This year, Ronchetti is trying his luck in the gubernatorial contest against Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham, and it’s not particularly clear at this point where the race stands.  New Mexico was an island of COVID-era lockdowns in a generally liberated region, and I suspect that hurt her standing some.  Nobody has a sense of where the partisan loyalties of Hispanic voters stand in the post-Trump era, and it will be highly determinative in a state where Hispanics are the majority of the electorate.  Absent much evidence to the contrary, I’ll give Lujan Grisham a narrow benefit of the doubt but I suspect the race will be close and I wouldn’t be stunned if Ronchetti pulled out an upset.  Prediction:  Lujan Grisham by 2.

New York—One of the most unlikely ascendancies to the top of the political universe came in the form of New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, a short-time Congresswoman from upstate New York who stumbled her way to the governorship and is now running for her first full term.  But Cinderalla stories are often felled as quickly as they're constructed, and right now Hochul is not looking as strong as one might expect for an incumbent Democrat in the Empire State.  Her opponent is Long Island Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin who just might put up a reasonable fight and consolidate the white ethnic vote in the New York City area that has generally stood by Andrew Cuomo in the three previous gubernatorial contests.  The flawed logic in New York and other blue states was that the Dobbs ruling would overwhelm other voter concerns, and Hochul more than any other political leader has made preserving abortion rights as the centerpiece of her campaign.  The issue seems to be increasingly falling flat everywhere, but particularly in New York where disproportionate numbers of voters seem to feel secure that abortion rights will be preserved and are wondering what Hochul plans to do on other matters if given another term.  Fortunately for Democrats, it seems likely that Hochul detected the messaging problem early enough that she might avoid the perfect storm scenario where Zeldin was able to take advantage of the timing and upset her.  At this point, I'm inclined to believe Hochul will be able to pivot the race to become a referendum on the challenger enough to not only win, but narrowly outperform the polls.  Hochul may not win pretty by the standards of a Democrat in New York, but I’m entirely confident she’ll still win.  But the milquetoast nature of her win could easily come with dire consequences in a number of battleground House districts, particularly upstate.  Prediction:  Hochul by 11.

Ohio—The Buckeye State has trended somewhere painfully close to Safe R since the dawn of the Trump era and moderate Republican Governor Mike DeWine’s biggest threat came in the Republican primary.  But after prevailing in the primary, DeWine was on a glide path to reelection and even polling samples showing a close Senate race have showed DeWine crushing Democratic challenger Nan Whaley, the mayor of Dayton who was a pretty good recruit on paper but stands poised for a big embarrassment in November.  Prediction:  DeWine by 20.

Oklahoma—Early polling is showing a close race for Governor in the Sooner State, but I’ve seen this movie before.  Four years ago, a race that was within the margin of error in pre-election polling wound up as a double-digit GOP rout for Kevin Stitt, the Republican running for a second term this year.  While Stitt has his vulnerabilities and there’s some degree of exhaustion with the GOP in the state, it remains one of the nation’s most conservative states and I expect Stitt will comfortably prevail again with the polls, as usual, undercounting working-class Republican voters.  The Democrats are fielding a pretty strong challenger in Superintendent of Instruction Joy Hofmeister, herself a Republican until she changed parties in opposition to Oklahoma’s long-controversial school funding policy.  Expect Hofmeister to score some decent wins in the state’s urban centers just as Democrat Drew Edmondson did four years ago, but the rural jurisdictions of Oklahoma where Democrats dominated a generation ago have realigned as staunch GOP strongholds and have all but entirely erased any path to victory for a Democrat running statewide in Oklahoma.  Prediction:  Stitt by 11.

Oregon--The Democrats have an amazing 40-year winning streak in Oregon gubernatorial elections, which is particularly impressive considering that Oregon was at best a purple state back in the 1980s when the streak began.  The Beaver State is a solidly blue state nowadays and for as far back as I can remember the close races always seem to swing to the Democrats come election day.  This tendency will be put to its biggest test in more than a decade this year with the open gubernatorial seat vacated by two-term Democrat Kate Brown.  Like so many states with large blue metro areas, the fault lines of Oregon politics have become a bitter geographic divide between Portland and everybody else.  Couple that with general Democratic exhaustion and a potential third-party spoiler and the gubernatorial race in Oregon is a toss-up.  Former Speaker of the House Tina Kotek is the underperforming Democratic nominee while former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan is the Republican nominee.  Drazan is in the game largely because former Democratic lawmaker Betsy Johnson is running as an independent and pulling in double-digit margins in the polls.  Polling suggests the race is a crap shoot, meaning I'll lean on past precedent to make my call.  Going back to 2000, most analysts predicted that "the Nader factor" would lead George W. Bush to victory in the Beaver State, but come election day, Nader's numbers came in at about half of expectations and the beneficiary of Nader-curious voters getting sweaty palms was Democrat Al Gore, who won the state largely because liberal voters came home.  My bet is that history will repeat itself, with fear of electing a Republican Governor with 40% of the vote will inspire a number of Betsy Johnson voters to flip to Kotek at the last minute.  That's just a gut prediction though and it wouldn't surprise me if the political climate ultimately fails Kotek in her quest to be Governor.  Prediction:  Kotek by 2.

Pennsylvania—Most of the questionable choices made my MAGAfied Republican primary electorates this year came in the Senate contests, but arguably the biggest own goal of all was the GOP’s Trump-endorsed emissary for the Keystone State’s gubernatorial contest.  Doug Mastriano was present at the January 6^th attacks and has a long record of wild statements that seem to have disqualified him from consideration for most Pennsylvania voters, making him perhaps the only highly controversial GOP nominee that really has been disqualified by voters.  State Attorney General and Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro appears to be running away with the race to replace two-term Democrat Tom Wolf even as the Senate race tightens.  Had Republican primary voters gone with former Congressman Lou Barletta, this would likely have been a battleground race, but they insisted on having a Christine O’Donnell moment and will pay dearly for it.  Prediction:  Shapiro by 12.

Rhode Island--Perhaps the blankest slate of the nation's potentially competitive gubernatorial elections is the Ocean State, where appointed Democratic Governor Dan McKee (whose predecessor is now in the Biden administration) is seeking a full elected term.  McKee eked out an unimpressive primary victory nabbing less than 33% of the vote in a multi-candidate field, which tells me he's not coming into the election from a place of strength.  I have no idea how strong of a challenge his GOP opponent, businesswoman Ashley Kalus, is putting up and after such a late primary only a month ago, and there's effectively zero general election polling to give me any indication of which way the wind is blowing.  With that in mind, all I have to base my prediction on are the fundamentals, so given Rhode Island's deep Democratic lean, I'll operate under the assumption that it will be advantage enough for dragging McKee across the finish line.  Of course, a single public poll would be highly clarifying and quite easily foretell a Kalus upset.  Prediction:  McKee by 4.

South Carolina—Republican incumbent Henry McMaster is running for his second full term as Governor in the Palmetto State and looks to be a considerable favorite despite having a relatively strong challenger in former Democratic Congressman Joe Cunningham.  Cunningham, who won an upset in a suburban Charleston Congressional race in 2018, was swept out of office two years later and had few places to go from there so he decided to challenge McMaster.  Unfortunately for him, a Democrat winning statewide office remains a tough slog in South Carolina as Jamie Harrison discovered in 2020.  There’s little in the way of buzz about this race less than a month before the election which is a pretty good indication McMaster is poised to win handily.  Prediction:  McMaster by 15.

South Dakota—It’s hard to believe that four years ago, Republican Kristi Noem barely won her first gubernatorial race in the dark red Mount Rushmore State, particularly given that she’s since raised her profile as a national figure espousing a muscularly libertarian platform during the pandemic and clearly has aspirations far beyond the plains of South Dakota.  There are some significant ethics charges that have dogged Noem in the past year and may turn out to be more impactful that I’m giving credit for, but I’m confident she’ll blow right past them and handily defeat her Democratic challenger, state House Minority Leader Jamie Smith.  It’s impossible to overstate how dead the Democratic Party has become in the once-bipartisan Mount Rushmore State during the Trump era.  Prediction:  Noem by 35.

Tennessee—One of the only states where the Democratic Party is even more dead than South Dakota is in Tennessee, where Republican Governor Bill Lee is going to absolutely cruise to a second term against his Democratic challenger, a random doctor named Jason Martin.  Interestingly though, Martin is from the Nashville suburbs, a region which showed some movement toward Biden two years ago.  I’ll be curious to see if the trend continues, but even if it does, Lee will still dominate statewide.  Prediction:  Lee by 28.

Texas—I’m a bit surprised at the relative competitiveness of the Lone Star State’s gubernatorial election as I figured Democrat Beto O’Rourke had beclowned himself out of consideration for future elected office in Texas after his 2020 Presidential campaign embarrassment.  But polls show O’Rourke trailing Republican incumbent Greg Abbott by mid-single digits and suggest that the “Dallas debutante vote” in upscale suburbs may have genuinely realigned from red to blue.  On the other hand, I suspect polling is oversampling the college boy vote just like it always does while likely undersampling the Hispanic vote in the Rio Grande Valley, a demographic that shows all signs of being done with the Democratic Party largely thanks to their incompetent stewardship of the border.  In the end, I think the days of double-digit GOP landslides in Texas may be over but I still think that despite his warts and a shrinking demand for the laissez-faire utopia for big business that is Greg Abbott’s brand, he’ll still win decisively, and probably better than the polls suggest.  Prediction:  Abbott by 10.

Vermont—The Green Mountain State is arguably the nation’s bluest, but they have a popular Republican Governor in Phil Scott who is running for another two-year term and seems assured of reelection.  His Democratic challenger, nonprofit executive Brenda Siegel, seems unlikely to shake even base Democratic voters away from their comfort level with the moderate Scott.  Had Scott elected to run for Senate rather than another gubernatorial term, his popularity probably wouldn’t have carried over into a victory, but for as long as Scott chooses to run for Governor, I like his chances of continuing to win.  Prediction:  Scott by 38.

Wisconsin--If there was one state in the country where the politics of abortion should be having an impact, it's the Badger State, where a centuries-old law rendered abortion illegal instantly after the Dobbs ruling dropped last summer.  Factoring in that Wisconsin (narrowly) went for Joe Biden last year and the fact that the state's brutal gerrymander has gifted the GOP with supermajorities in both houses of the legislature and it seems like it should be a slam-dunk that noncontroversial Democratic Governor Tony Evers would be a shoo-in for re-election as a check against conservative overreach.  Only that's not happening.  Polls are indicating a photo finish on the horizon between Evers and GOP challenger Tim Michels, a construction company owner who lost by double digits to Russ Feingold in the 2004 Senate race.  Michels has no business being competitive in this race but at this point it seems more likely than not that he'll win, reinforcing the notion that Wisconsin is realigning into a red state just as neighboring Iowa did a few cycles ago.  Prediction:  Michels by 1.  GOP gain.  (GOP +1)

Wyoming—Arguably the nation’s most anonymous Governor, Republican Mark Gordon is running for a second term in the nation’s reddest state as a cinch for reelection.  His Democratic challenger Theresa Livingston will likely win affluent Teton County and nothing else.  Prediction:  Gordon by 49.

 

 

Ultimately, I'm betting on a net GOP gain of one gubernatorial mansion.  That doesn't seem particularly impressive in a good GOP year, but the novelty of having incumbent Republican Governors in Maryland and Massachusetts throws off the curve a bit.  Furthermore, an additional breeze in the GOP's direction could enlarge their haul by several with Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Rhode Island potentially on the bubble.  Certainly in the national popular vote in gubernatorial races, I think it's a safe bet that the GOP either wins outright or at worst vastly outperforms their 2018 numbers in the same 36 states.  

 

I'll be back next week with general House predictions and some final thoughts about the parties' respective messaging this election cycle.  As usual, I'm feeling some excitement about it as the election approaches, but everything about the way our electoral coalitions are lining up since the dawn of the Trump era has me depressed and checked out.  If things go the way I expect they will on November 8th, it'll be harder than ever to muster up the energy for my "post-game analysis", but I'm sure I will soldier through it.