Moving To Iowa

I just got a new job in Iowa and have an extremely compressed time to move down there and get set up. I was planning to make predictions for this fall's gubernatorial races this weekend, but will have to delay the addition, along with other blog entries, for at least a week. Hopefully, the predictions will worth the wait.

Will the Democrats Make the House Their Home?

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up this November. The current partisan alignment is 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats and 1 independent who caucuses with Democrats. The Democrats have to pick up 15 Republican-held seats to win back the House next year. While this sounds like it would be imminently doable, the power of incumbency, Republican-friendly gerrymanders and the general lack of competitiveness in House races will make regaining the Speaker's gavel an uphill fight for Democrats. I will divide my thoughts on next years races into two tiers of competitiveness. I will offer in-depth profiles for what I consider top-tier races where I believe a real contest is likely to unfold in November. And I will give passing reference to second-tier races that have the potential to be competitive. Here goes:

Arizona, District 8 (sections of Tucson, Sierra Vista)--Moderate Republican Jim Kolbe is retiring after this term, leaving an open seat in a swing district. The terrain still narrowly favors Republicans, but this Mexican border district has a large and growing Hispanic population that could prove noteworthy, particularly if Republicans nominate frontrunner Randy Graf for the seat. Graf is a one-issue candidate with a feverish anti-immigration stance. This stance would resonate in the more conservative areas of Arizona such as the Phoenix suburbs, but it's much more of a gamble in this Hispanic-heavy swing district. The likely Democratic candidate is photogenic Gabrielle Giffords. Particularly if Graf gets the nomination on the Republican side, I think the national and statewide momentum in Arizona could swing this district blue. For now, I'm predicting a Democratic gain. (Running total: +1 Dems)

Colorado, District 3 (Pueblo, Grand Junction, Durango)--Democrat John Salazar won this open seat in 2004, propelled into office by his brother Ken's strong performance in the Colorado Senate race and a rising Democratic tide on Colorado's Western Slope ski area. The shift to Dems in fast-growing ski communities such as Steamboat Springs, Breckenridge, Aspen, Telluride and Durango, along with the Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters in the Pueblo region, are drifting this once-Republican stronghold further into Democratic territory. I'd be very surprised in the national political climate in 2006 compels western Coloradans to trade in moderate Democrat Salazar for Republican Scott Tipton. Dem hold. (+1 Dems)

Colorado, District 4 (Fort Collins, Greeley, Sterling)--Arch-conservative Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave barely held her seat in 2004, even in this staunchly Republican district located in the Plains of eastern Colorado. The district's largest and fastest-growing community is Fort Collins north of the Denver area. It's trending Democrat, but is a long way's from being able to single-handedly decide the outcome in this district. Furthermore, Musgrave's close call in 2004 came in a very Democratic year in her state. I'm not expecting 2006 will be as Democrat-friendly in Colorado in 2006, and thus expect Musgrave to hold her seat. GOP hold. (+1 Dems)

Colorado, District 7 (Lakewood, suburbs west and north of Denver)--This swingiest of swing districts in the Denver suburbs will be vacated by Republican incumbent Bob Beauprez, who is running for Governor. That's important because Beauprez's gubernatorial run could provide GOP coattails in his native district. As an outsider to the region, I know little about the frontrunners for the nomination in the district (Democrat Ed Perlmutter and Republican Rick O'Donnell). It's hard to make a call on this race knowing so little about the candidates, but considering the district voted for John Kerry, I'm inclined to believe they probably want a check on George Bush's power in Congress, so I'm narrowly favoring the Democrats to pick the seat up. (+2 Dems)

Connecticut, District 2 (New London, Norwich, Willimantic)--This eastern Connecticut district is the state's most rural and least affluent. It's also the most Democratic district in the nation held by a Republican in Congress. Republican Rob Simmons has skated by with soft margins of victory for the last three terms, but is facing a rising Democratic tide in his home state where Bush is wildly unpopular and where Democratic incumbent Joe Lieberman is on the ballot this year, poised to win by a huge margin. Simmons' Democratic opponent, Joe Courtney, should be well-funded and positioned as nicely as one can be to defeat a Congressional incumbent. I expect Simmons to go the way of Connie Morella in Maryland four years ago. Dem gain. (+3 Dems)

Connecticut, District 4 (Stamford, Greenwich, Bridgeport)--This extremely affluent suburban district in southwest Connecticut is socially liberal and maintains a significant enough urban Democratic presence to keep moderate Republican incumbent Chris Shays permanently on his toes. In 2004, Shays held off token Democratic challenger Diane Farrell by only four points. Farrell is running again in 2006, this time with a larger warchest and with Shays having a bigger target on his back. As of now, I'm expecting the same trendline that will take down Rob Simmons in CT-02 will also unseat Shays, but it's no means a sure bet at this stage of the race. Dem gain. (+4 Dems)

Florida, District 22 (sections of the Gold Coast in Palm Beach and Broward Counties)--I don't understand the political geography of this district. Considering how overwhelmingly Democrat senior-heavy and heavily Jewish Palm Beach and Broward Counties are in statewide and President elections, I can't understand how Republican Clay Shaw continues winning here. He narrowly avoided defeat in 2000, the year Al Gore lit South Florida on fire, but has since been redistricted into "safer territory" (again, in counties that Gore and Kerry both won by more than 60%, I don't understand how anyplace in them could be safe for Republicans). Whatever the case, Shaw keeps on skating by, but faces a top-tier challenger this year in State Senator Ron Klein. If this were a Presidential election year, I would suggest the coattails would push Klein across the finish line, but with gubernatorial and Senate races in Florida unlikely to generate any serious momentum for the Democratic Party (the Senate race could, but Nelson's just not that popular), I'm leaning towards Shaw hanging on once again. GOP hold. (+4 Dems)

Georgia, District 8 (Macon, Warner Robins)--Conservative Democrat Jim Marshall won in a gerrymandered district in 2002 with a 37% black population. Georgia courts ruled the district lines unconstitutional, so there were redrawn and took away some of Marshall's voter base. Making things worse, former Macon-area Republican Congressman Mac Collins decided to challenge Marshall in the district. The new district has a decidedly white and Republican tilt and Collins' background with area voters look to make Marshall on the short list of vulnerable Democrats this cycle. I'm expecting Collins will beat him. GOP gain. (+3 Dems)

Georgia, District 12 (Augusta, Savannah)--Another district whose 2001 boundaries were declared unconstitutional places another Democratic incumbent in jeopardy. John Barrow narrowly beat Republican incumbent Max Burns in 2004 and now faces Burns in a re-match in a district that does not include the liberal college town of Athens. However, Barrow is trading in Athens for a rural region of eastern Georgia that is heavily black and similarly Democratic, so the geography of his district isn't as perilous for Dems as Marshall's new district. Still, Burns has a deferred incumbency that is likely to make this a very close race. But without George Bush on the ballot, I'm inclined to give Barrow a narrow advantage in holding this seat. It's definitely one to watch closely in the months ahead. Dem hold. (+3 Dems)

Illinois, District 6 (Wheaton, northern DuPage County)--Vacated by Republican institution Henry Hyde, this district in the western suburbs of Chicago used to be one of the most Republican in the nation. Recent trendlines have seriously diluted GOP strength to the point that George Bush barely won the district in 2004 and Democratic challenger Christine Cegelis gave Hyde the best challenge of his career. Cegelis is running again in the open seat, along with paraplegic Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth on the Democratic side. Cegelis' name recognition and Duckworth's incredible personal story would ordinarily be enough to give the Democrats a slight advantage over Republican challenger Peter Rosham, but Illinois' headline race in the 2006 midterms will be a Governor's race where the incumbent Democrat will get smashed in this suburban district, potentially delivering counter-coattails for Cegelis or Duckworth. Still, the prevailing political winds and thirst for change nationally compel me to give both quality Democratic candidates a soft advantage. Dem gain. (+4 Dems)

Illinois, District 8 (Barrington, McHenry, northwestern Chicago exurbs)--Conservative Democrat Melissa Bean snuck past embattled and geriatric Republican incumbent Phil Crane in 2004, a very Democratic year in her state. Unfortunately for her, this wealthy district is very Republican, meaning she'll be walking a political tightrope for as long as she serves as a Democratic Congresswoman. She's angered organized labor by supporting CAFTA, potentially harming her with her Democratic constituency. While I'm not very knowledgeable about her Republican challengers (David McSweeney, Teresa Bartels), I'm compelled to give them the advantage at this stage of the race, particularly since the headliner of the Democratic ticket in Illinois will not be wildly popular Barack Obama as it was in 2004, but embattled Governor Rod Blagojevich, who will probably lose IL-08 by 20 points. With that in mind, I'm predicting Bean narrowly loses her seat. GOP gain. (+3 Dems)

Indiana, District 8 (Evansville, Terre Haute)--Uber-conservative Republican John Hostettler consistently underperforms in his southwest Indiana district, even against marginal, unfunded Democrats. In 2006, Hostettler faces a formidable opponent in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, a socially conservative Democrat who, if early polls are any indication, looks poised to win back a seat for the Dems. Dem gain (+4 Dems)

Indiana, District 9 (Bloomington, New Albany)--In a year where George Bush won Indiana by 21 points, his coattails helped Republican challenger Mike Sodrel defeat southeast Indiana Democrat Baron Hill. This year, Hill's in for a re-match in a year that looks much less friendly for Republicans. This race is a crap shoot at this point, but I'm narrowly leaning towards Hill given this district's heavily Democratic registration advantage. Dem gain (+5 Dems)

Iowa, District 1 (Waterloo, Davenport, Dubuque)--One of the oddest political couples in America in recent years has been conservative Republican Jim Nussle and the populist small farmers and union workers of northeast Iowa. Gore and Kerry both won IA-01, by five and six-point margins, meaning that Democrats have a numerical advantage in regaining this seat now that Nussle is running for Iowa Governor. Neither side will choose a candidate until this spring's primary, so this race is still basically a toss-up. Nonetheless, the political climate and the district's leanings point to a likely Democratic gain. (+6 Dems)

Iowa, District 3 (Des Moines, Ames)--Democrat Leonard Boswell has held this central Iowa swing district for nearly a decade, but has never maintained the kind of grip on it that has allowed the Democrats to completely relax. This year, Boswell faces a higher-profile opponent in State Senator Jeff Lamberti, as well as the question marks surrounding his own health. Boswell has missed several months worth of votes after heart surgery. His spokespeople say he's nearly completed his recovery, but if questions linger about his health six months from now, it could be just enough to convince the voters in the increasingly Republican suburban Des Moines doughnut to replace Boswell with Lamberti. What would have been a second-tier contest is likely to become a first-tier. It all depends on Boswell's health. Assuming it holds up, I predict Boswell will hang on to this seat, but watch it closely. Dem hold (+6 Dems)

Louisiana, District 3 (Houma, New Iberia)--Democrat Charlie Melancon eked out a 50.2-49.8% victory in last year's special election in this conservative southeastern Louisiana district. Since his 2004 election, two neutron bombs were set off in the region, complicating its politics. The first was the signing of the CAFTA agreement, which seriously threatens southern Louisiana's sugar industry, and which Melancon's feverishly opposed. The second blow to SE LA was Hurricane Katrina, which displaced thousands of citizens in the region and delivered another crushing blow to its economy. It's unclear what implications the hurricane and resulting population flux will have on the 2006 elections, but Melancon is credited with solid leadership post-Katrina. Couple that with his defense of the sugar industry against CAFTA and he has some serious advantages in holding this conservative district. Nonetheless, it's unlikely to surprise anyone if Republican challenger Craig Romero is able to take Melancon out given the profile of the district. This is definitely one to keep an eye on, but right now I'm leaning towards Melancon. Dem hold. (+6 Dems)

Minnesota, District 6 (St. Cloud, northern Mpls.-St. Paul suburbs)--With Republican Mark Kennedy running for the Senate, this Republican-leaning exurban district is open in 2006. Normally, this race would be a slam-dunk for any Republican, but Democratic candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg is the Mayor of the swing suburb of Blaine and is running as a pro-life Democrat, potentially diluting some of the advantage the Republicans may have on social wedge issues. Furthermore, the frontrunner on the GOP side is evangelical flamethrower Michele Bachmann, who is probably too conservative for this district. Other potential GOP challengers (Jim Knoblach, Phil Krinkie, Cheri Pierson Yecke) would probably beat Tinklenberg, but Bachmann would probably be considered too conservative by swing voters in places like St. Cloud and Woodbury. If Bachmann is nominated, it's advantage-Tinklenberg. Dem gain. (+7 Dems)

New Mexico, District 1 (Albuquerque)--Republican Heather Wilson has held this seat for several years, despite its Democratic leanings. She's always been able to narrowly hold off challenges from token Democratic opponents. This year, she faces a more spirited challenge from New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Considering that statewide Democratic incumbents Bill Richardson and Jeff Bingaman are expected to win in a walk, I definitely this is the year that Democrats will be able to pick off Heather Wilson. Dem gain (+8 Dems)

New York, District 19 (northern New York City exurbs)--Republican Sue Kelly has easily won previous elections in this wealthy suburban district, which I believe entails the Clinton's new home in Chappaquadick. Kelly has a long list of Democratic primary challengers, which should generate some free media attention for the Democrats and ultimately leave the victor in a good position to take advantage of George Bush's extreme unpopularity and the meltdown of New York's state Republican Party at Sue Kelly's expense. This is sure to be a hard-fought contest and Kelly could still not only win, but win handily, but with Democrats Spitzer and Clinton headlining the ticket, Kelly's challenger will have some serious logistical momentum on his/her side, enough to compel me to lean Democrat for this race. Dem gain (+9 Dems)

New York, District 29 (Elmira, Corning)--This largely rural district in southwest New York is unfriendly territory for Democrats even in strongly Democratic years, but one-term incumbent Republican Randy Kuhl is nonetheless vulnerable based on his relatively soft margin in 2004. In '06, he faces a "Fighting Dem" in pilot and war veteran Eric Massa whose candidacy should generate some buzz and possibly ride the momentum of Spitzer and Clinton across the finish line. This outcome is possible, but pragmatically, this strongly Republican district seems unlikely to trade in a Republican for a Democrat even in the most Democratic year. It's definitely one to watch, but I'm leaning towards Kuhl here. GOP hold (+9 Dems)

North Carolina, District 8 (Kannapolis, sections of Fayetteville)--When I first heard that incumbent Republican Robin Hayes was vulnerable, it surprised me because I thought this district ran completely along the I-85 region between Charlotte and Greensboro, the most Republican part of North Carolina. I didn't realize the district was centered east of that region. While NC-08 does include the very heavily Republican Kannapolis, it also includes Democratic strongholds such as heavily-black Rockingham and Laurinburg, not to mention part of the city of Fayetteville. Hayes was in big trouble after flip-flopping over CAFTA, ultimately voting for it in a district devastated by garment and mill layoffs. "Fighting Democrat" Iraq war veteran Tim Dunn is likely to make a compelling run and could conceivably overtake Hayes, but the presence of the Kannapolis area (where "Democrat" is a dirty word) in this district makes it hard for me to see Dunn prevailing. I'm leaning towards Hayes here, but this is definitely another one that could be surprising. GOP hold. (+9 Dems)

North Carolina, District 11 (Asheville, Waynesville)--Western North Carolina's Smoky Mountain region is typically a Republican stronghold, but was surprisingly soft for Republican candidates in several races in 2004, including incumbent Congressman Charles Taylor. Making things even more interesting this fall is the candidacy of former NFL football quarterback Heath Shuler, whose running on a socially conservative platform and has pulled in some boffo fundraising numbers thus far. It's probably too soon to say how good of a candidate Shuler could be, but early indicators are impressive enough to where I'm giving him the advantage. Dem gain. (+10 Dems)

Ohio, District 6 (Steubenville, Marietta, Athens)--This long narrow district runs along the Ohio River in the southeast corner of the state. Incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland is running for Governor, leaving the seat open and providing Republicans some hope they can pick up the seat. It seems like a tough uphill slog from my vantage point. While its true Bush narrowly won this rural, socially conservative district in 2004, he was the first Republican to do so in decades. This is a working class area with prominent union presence and the liberal college town of Athens. Likely Democratic nominee Charlie Wilson is exactly the sort of Democrat who wins here, and with favorite son Ted Strickland at the top of the state ticket running for Governor and providing coattails, I don't see much opportunity for Republican Chuck Blasdel to pull off an upset. Dem hold. (+10 Dems)

Ohio, District 15 (Columbus)--Not many people seem to agree with me that Republican Deborah Pryce is beatable. Her gerrymandered district, which includes much of the city of Columbus along with a sizeable percentage of its suburbs, seemed Republican-friendly when designed, but an increasing Democratic side in the area pushed John Kerry to within one percentage point of victory last fall. Since then, the Ohio Republican Party has been battered-bloody with corruption and Pryce pulled a scandalous and unpopular flip-flop over CAFTA, ultimately voting for it against the will of the vast majority of economically-depressed Ohioans. Her opponent this fall appears to be Mary Jo Kilroy, who I've heard mostly good things about and who allegedly has pretty strong name recognition in the area. Perhaps I'm way off the beam here, but I'm predicting an upset of which Pryce will be on the losing end. Dem gain. (+11 Dems)

Ohio, District 18 (Chillicothe, Zanesville)--This wildly gerrymandered district in southern and eastern Ohio is home to Public Enemy #1 in the Jack Abramoff scandal, long-time Republican incumbent Bob Ney. Normally, Ney would win this Republican-leaning district by a cozy 2-1 margin, but the scandalous air surrounding him and the anti-majority party climate seems eerily similar to the scenario that took down Democratic power-broker Dan Rostenkowski in 1994 in a northern Chicago district much more Democrat than OH-18 is Republican. And Ney's scandal seems to be far more serious than Rostenkowski's stamp-stealing scandal. Unless Ney is compelled to retire rather than run again in '06, I have a hard time seeing how he holds this seat against Democrat Joe Sulzer, who right now looks to be one of more fortunate Democrats in America. Dem gain. (+12 Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 6 (Reading, northwestern Philadelphia suburbs/exurbs)--Republican Jim Gerlach has won twice by the slimmest of margins in this Democratic-trending suburban district northwest of Philadelphia. Considering the anti-Republican climate heading into 2006, particularly in the Northeast, I suspect Gerlach's hourglass will run out of sand this year against narrowly-defeated 2004 challenger Lois Murphy. This is the kind of race that the Democrats will be extremely disappointed if they don't win. Dem gain. (+13 Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 8 (Bucks County, northern Philly suburbs/exurbs)--Just to the north and east of PA-06 is the demographically similar PA-08, which was open in 2004 and won by Republican Mike Fitzpatrick despite the fact that John Kerry won the Presidential contest. Many political analysts consider Fitzpatrick fairly safe, even against Democratic Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy, but I that Murphy's compelling personal story and the current political mood in the northeast will be enough to narrowly unseat Fitzpatrick. Keep in mind that Democrats are poised to pull in huge numbers in the Governor and Senate race in SE PA. This can only benefit Patrick Murphy's candidacy. Dem gain. (+14 Dems)

Texas, District 17 (Waco, College Station)--Democrat Chet Edwards was the only survivor of the Democrats targeted for defeat by Tom DeLay's ethically bankrupt mid-decade redistricting in 2004. Edwards prevailed for a number of reasons, not the least of which was his fire-breathing arch-conservative opponent who was deemed too right-wing even for Bush's backyard. Edwards is a skilled politician, but this district is so Republican that it's a matter of when, not if, he gets defeated. Luckily for him, 2006 does not appear to be the year that's likely to happen as the GOP has been unable to pull in an opponent deemed capable of taking Edwards out. But like Senator Ben Nelson in Nebraska, no Democrat can ever consider himself safe in this very Republican area. Whoever the GOP runs is almost assured of 45% support. Dem hold. (+14 Dems)

Texas, District 22 (Sugar Land, Galveston)--Tom DeLay may have gerrymandered himself right out of his own seat as the new TX-22 is considerably less Republican than the Harris County-centric district DeLay was accustomed to winning in. It's still strongly Republican, but the embattled DeLay is running 13 points behind a generic Democratic challenger in early polls. But the Dems have more than just a generic challenge to run against him, they have former Congressman Nick Lampson, a casualty of the 2004 DeLay-mander. A good chunk of Lampson's old district is now in TX-22, which gives him a quasi-incumbency benefit. With ethics scandal after ethics scandal serving as a millstone around his neck, things are not looking good at all for DeLay, who only won by 55% in 2004 because of lingering ethics concerns. The only wild card is that DeLay could opt not to run for another term, at which point the Republicans probably have an advantage in holding the seat. Assuming that DeLay does run, however, this should be a Dem gain. (+15 Dems)

Vermont At-large--Vermont's sole Congressman is Independent Bernie Sanders, who is very liberal and caucuses with the Democrats. With Sanders running for the Senate, his seat will be open and very likely to fall officially into the hands of one of the major parties. I don't know who the candidates are at this stage, but I find it very hard to believe that increasingly Democrat Vermont would replace the left-wing Sanders with a Republican. It would be a seismic upset if they voted in a George Bush ally in a state where Bush has a 29% approval rating. Dem gain. (+16 Dems)

Washington, District 8 (Bellevue, Issaquah, eastern Seattle suburbs)--This suburban Seattle district has been trending Democrat for quite some time. Last year, Republican Dave Reichert narrowly won the open seat, but faces a stiff challenge this fall from Microsoft millionaire Darcy Burner. Given recent trendlines and Bush's unpopularity in Washington, I would normally be inclined to tilt this race to Burner, but I think Dino Rossi could play into this race more than Bush does. Washington Republicans are still understandably furious at Rossi having the Governor's mansion taken from him when the third recount showed additional votes for Democrat Christine Gregoire. Rossi won the PR battle and continues to be a sympathetic figure while the state Democratic Party took a hit. Lingering resentment over the gubernatorial race among King County Republicans (most of whom live in WA-08) will probably help Reichert hang onto his seat. GOP hold (+16 Dems)

Wisconsin, District 8 (Green Bay, Appleton)--Republicans have long held an advantage in this northeastern Wisconsin district, but not the kind of advantage that will keep it from being a hard-fought contest in 2006 now that Republican Mark Green is running for Governor. There will be a primary battle on both sides, so the lack of clarity on who the candidates will end up being make this race hard to call. Still, with native son Mark Green headlining the ballot in the gubernatorial race, I have a hard time seeing how the Democrats pull this one out. GOP hold. (+16 Dems)

Now, for a general list of second-tier contests where I expect the incumbent candidate/party will hold the seat, but which could become competitive between now and November 7:

AZ-01 (Flagstaff, Navajo Reservation)--currently held by Republican Rick Renzi
CA-11 (Stockton, Lodi)--currently held by Republican Richard Pombo
CA-26 (northeastern Los Angeles suburbs)--currently held by Republican David Dreier
CA-50 (Imperial Beach, coastal San Diego County)--open seated vacated by Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham
CT-05 (Waterbury, New Britain)--currently held by Republican Nancy Johnson
FL-09 (northern Tampa-St. Pete suburbs)--open seat vacated by Republican Michael Bilirakis
FL-11 (Tampa)--open seat vacated by Democrat Jim Davis
FL-13 (Sarasota, Bradenton)--open seat vacated by Republican Katherine Harris
IL-10 (Waukegan, northeastern Chicago exurbs)--currently held by Republican Mark Kirk
IL-11 (Will County, southern Chicago exurbs)--currently held by Republican Jerry Weller
IN-02 (South Bend, Elkhart)--currently held by Republican Chris Chocola
IN-07 (Indianapolis)--currently held by Democrat Julia Carson
IA-02 (Cedar Rapids, Iowa City)--currently held by Republican Jim Leach
KS-03 (Kansas City, Lawrence)--currently held by Democrat Dennis Moore
KY-03 (Louisville)--currently held by Republican Anne Northup
KY-04 (Covington, Ashland)--currently held by Republican Geoff Davis
LA-02 (New Orleans)--currently held by Democrat William Jefferson
LA-06 (Baton Rouge)--currently held by Republican Richard Baker
LA-07 (Lake Charles, Lafayette)--currently held by Republican Charles Boustany
MI-09 (Oakland County)--currently held by Republican Joseph Knollenberg
MI-11 (Livonia, northwest Detroit suburbs)--currently held by Republican Thaddeus McCotter
MN-01 (Rochester, Mankato)--currently held by Republican Gil Gutknecht
MN-02 (southern Mpls.-St. Paul suburbs)--currently held by Republican John Kline
NE-01 (Lincoln, Norfolk)--currently held by Republican Jeff Fortenberry
NV-02 (Reno, Carson City)--open seat vacated by Republican Jim Gibbons
NH-02 (Nashua, Portsmouth)--currently held by Republican Charles Bass
NY-01 (east Hamptons)--currently held by Democrat Tim Bishop
NY-03 (Nassau County suburbs)--currently held by Republican Peter King
NY-20 (Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls)--currently held by Republican John Sweeney
NY-27 (Buffalo, Jamestown)--currently held by Democrat Brian Higgins
OH-02 (suburban Cincinnati)--currently held by Republican Jean Schmidt
OH-04 (Mansfield, Lima)--open seat vacated by Republican Michael Oxley
OH-13 (Akron, Lorain)--open seat vacated by Democrat Sherrod Brown
OH-14 (eastern Cleveland suburbs, Ashtabula)--currently held by Republican Steve LaTourette
PA-04 (northern and western Pittsburgh suburbs)--currently held by Republican Melissa Hart
PA-07 (southwestern Philadelphia suburbs)--currently held by Republican Curt Weldon
PA-17 (Harrisburg, Lebanon)--currently held by Democrat Tim Holden
SC-05 (Rock Hill, Sumter)--currently held by Democrat John Spratt
SD-AL (Sioux Falls, Rapid City)--currently held by Democrat Stephanie Herseth
TN-04 (McMinnville, Lynchburg)--currently held by Democrat Lincoln Davis
TX-10 (sections of Austin, suburbs)--currently held by Republican Michael McCaul
UT-02 (Salt Lake City, southern suburbs)--currently held by Democrat Jim Matheson
VA-02 (Virginia Beach)--currently held by Republican Thelma Drake
WV-02 (Charleston, Martinsville)--currently held by Republican Shelley Moore Capito

At least for now, my prediction is that the Democrats gain 16 seats, taking back the House by the slimmest margin imagineable. I expect the makeup of the next Congress will be 218 Democrats and 217 Republicans, fueled by an ache in the guts of Americans in red and blue districts alike to usher in some checks and balances on Republican-dominated government. It surprises me that so few analysts are willing to accept the very real prospect of a political tsunami in November 2006, considering the ugly approval ratings for Congress, the wide gap in right track/wrong track numbers and the towering ethics scandals taking their toll on Republican leadership. I'm actually more inclined to believe I seriously lowballed Democratic successes in this fall's House races rather than overstated them. The only wild card is if the criminally incompetent Democratic leadership is able to screw up a sure thing.

Early Predictions for 2006 Senate Races

One-third of the United States Senate will be seeking re-election this November, and the races are congealing pretty well by now with the filing deadline approaching for several states. The current Senate alignment is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 1 independent who votes with Democrats. With that in mind, the Dems need to take six GOP-held seats to win back the Senate. Here are my thoughts on how these contests will unfold 10 months from now. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind right up to the bitter end.

Arizona--Incumbent Republican Jon Kyl is facing a strong challenge from Arizona Democratic Party Chair and multi-millionaire businessman Jim Pederson this fall. Pederson will finance his own campaign, which will prove to be a logistical equalizer against Kyl. Democrats are cautiously optimistic about Pederson's prospects, but I find it very hard to believe that Kyl is beatable. For one thing, iconic demigod John McCain (AZ's Senior Senator) will be joined at the hip with Kyl at every opportunity if this race becomes competitive. For another, the number one issue in Arizona is immigration, and most of those concerned with immigration favor Kyl's hard-line position. Lastly, Arizona remains a significantly Republican state. It would take a political tsunami favoring the Democrats for Kyl to be taken down. My odds: 3-1 Kyl. GOP hold.

California--Incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein doesn't have any organized opposition at this point. I'm sure she'll face a token challenge, but is almost certain to win, most likely with more votes than any other Senate candidate has ever gotten (beating Barbara Boxer's record last year of 6.9 million votes). My odds: 100-1 Feinstein. Dem hold.

Connecticut--Democrat-In-Name-Only Joe Lieberman is almost certain to win, most likely with more support from self-identified Republicans than from Democrats. Unless Bush appoints him to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense, as has been mentioned but now seems like a remote possibility, Lieberman will likely take 70% of the vote. My odds: 250-1 Lieberman. Dem hold.

Delaware--One-term centrist Democrat Thomas Carper is one of those quietly popular Senators who nobody has heard of nationally but is loved at home. As far as I know, Carper has no competition at this point, and even if he does face token opposition, will win handily. My odds: 100-1 Carper. Dem hold.

Florida--Potentially complicated race. Otherwise vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson is far from wildly popular, but appears poised to face Congresswoman Katherine Harris (yes, THAT Katherine Harris) in November. Harris is running an absolutely awful campaign thus far, desperately deficient in fundraising numbers, and is trailing by more than 20 points in preliminary polls. Nelson's only concern is that the GOP may play the switcheroo before the filing deadline, replacing the hapless Harris with West Palm Beach-area Congressman Mark Foley, who would most likely pose a much stiffer challenge to Nelson. If Foley ends up running, this race will become a toss-up, but for now, I give Nelson 4-1 odds against Harris. Dem hold.

Hawaii--Geriatric JUNIOR Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka is a shoo-in for another term....as long as he doesn't die first! Odds: 100-1 Akaka. Dem hold.

Indiana--Republican stalwart Richard Lugar faces an almost certain re-election now that Democrat Tim Roemer has chosen not to run....not that Roemer would've beaten him either. Odds: 250-1 Lugar. GOP hold.

Maine--Liberal Republican Olympia Snowe has the highest approval rating of any Senator in the nation. She'll probably do as well among Democrats as she will with members of her own party. Snowe will probably win by a 2-1 margin against whichever sacrificial lamb the Dems decide to run against her. Odds: 100-1 Snowe. GOP hold.

Maryland--With the retirement of Democrat Paul Sarbanes, we have our first open seat of 2006. Two prominent Democrats are running in the primary to replace Sarbanes. Baltimore Congressman Benjamin Cardin is the frontrunner, but former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume could pull off an upset given the large number of blacks likely to participate in a Democratic primary in Maryland. On the Republican side, African-American Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele has the potential to peel off some black voters, particularly if he's challenged by the white Cardin, but his rock-solid conservative positions are unlikely to win over Democratic Marylanders in the current political climate. Cardin would have a significant advantage over Steele with his ties to swing areas in the Baltimore suburbs, but the controversial Mfume would likely push white, suburban voters to Steele and make this race a real contest. Still, I'm going under the premise that it will be a Cardin-Steele matchup, in which case the odds would be 2-1 favoring Cardin. Dem hold.

Massachusetts--Unless Ted Kennedy kills another woman, he's a lock for an eighth term (!). Odds: 500-1 Kennedy. Dem hold.

Michigan--One-term Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow might be vulnerable, but her opposition on the GOP side is weak to put it mildly. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard would probably give her the toughest challenge, but would still most likely lose by a double-digit margin. The nomination is likely to either go to Bouchard or conservative African-American reverend Keith Butler, who would be slaughtered by Stabenow. Odds: 4-1 Stabenow. Dem hold.

Minnesota--This open seat, vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton, is poised to be a classic Old Minnesota vs. New Minnesota contest. Suburban Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy will face either Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar or child safety advocate Patty Wetterling. Klobuchar is favored and would most likely be the stronger candidate against Kennedy. Klobuchar's professional connection to Hennepin County and personal connection to the Iron Range gives her a solid head start, but Kennedy's Congressional representation of most of the state's suburban and exurban counties along with the state's rural, agricultural southwest quadrant gives him a solid head start of his own. At this point, Kennedy looks like a better candidate on paper than he has turned out to be, however. His sleazy and vicious Congressional campaign against Patty Wetterling last year probably suppressed his '04 margin and appears to have raised his unfavorable ratings statewide. Couple that with Kennedy's reputation as a Bush administration puppet and it becomes harder to believe Minnesotans will choose to send a second rubber stamp for Bush to the U.S. Senate. If Wetterling ends up being Kennedy's opponent, then this race will be a toss-up, but if conventional wisdom prevails and Klobuchar wins the nomination, I give her odds to win in November. Odds: 3-2 Klobuchar. Dem hold.

Mississippi--Trent Lott is playing coy about his re-election plans, making Washington Republicans nervous. Lott is the most popular politician in Mississippi and will win handily if he runs, but if he doesn't, the second most popular politician in Mississippi is former Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore. Republicans fear that Lott's likely GOP replacement, Congressman Chip Pickering, would lose to Moore if it came to that. Personally, I don't believe any Democrat could win a Senate election in Mississippi in the current political climate, even Moore. Furthermore, I think Lott will decide to run again and make it a moot point. Assuming Lott runs, the odds are 500-1 Lott. GOP hold.

Missouri--The Republicans have been winning everything in Missouri in the past few election cycles, but there seems to be a backlash against one-party government right now with anemic approval ratings for George Bush and MO Governor Matt Blunt. A surprise casualty of that backlash appears to be GOP incumbent Senator Jim Talent, who is narrowly trailing Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill in early polls. McCaskill narrowly lost the Governor's race last year to Blunt, whose unpopularity seems to be benefitting McCaskill in classic "buyers' remorse" fashion. There are also some complicated issues regarding a stem cell initiative on the Missouri ballot next year which Talent is waffling over. His incomprehensible position will probably hurt him among his right-wing base, making him even more vulnerable. This should be a very close race, but I'm giving the early advantage to McCaskill. Odds: 51-49 McCaskill. Dem gain (+1 Dems).

Montana--Republican Conrad Burns has never been that popular in Montana, winning his second term by a weak two percentage points in 2000 even as George Bush was beating Al Gore by 25 points in the state. This year, he goes into the race stigmatized by the smoldering Jack Abramoff scandal, which has already cut his approval rating down to 42% in the past month. Assuming Burns is implicated in the Abramoff scandal as is predicted, I find it hard to believe he holds his seat. In fact, it might be wise for the GOP to field another candidate before the filing deadline passes. Two prominent Democrats are challenging Burns. State Auditor John Morrison is suspected to be the front-runner, but populist State Senate President Jon Tester could score an upset. At this point, I'd say either of them would defeat the embattled Burns. Unless his ties to Abramoff prove weaker than originally suspected, I say Burns is outta there. Odds: 5-4 in favor of Morrison or Tester. Dem gain (+2 Dems).

Nebraska--Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson has already dodged two major bullets in his quest for a second term. Former Governor Mike Johanns, considered Nelson's most likely challenger two years ago, was appointed to be George Bush's Secretary of Agriculture in 2004. Then, current Congressman and former Nebraska Cornhuskers Head Coach Tom Osborn decided to run for Governor in '06 rather than challenge Nelson. Both men would have probably beaten Nelson in this cranberry-red state, but their decision not to challenge him has left Nelson looking fairly safe, at least for the time being. Even with a 63% approval rating, Nelson's re-election is by no means a slam-dunk even against a token Republican opponent. After all, Nelson blew a 20-point lead and lost to Chuck Hagel in 1996 and barely hung on against a nobody challenging him in 2000. As long as Nelson has that (D) next to his name, he's vulnerable in Nebraska. At this point, however, his prospects appear brighter than they did 18 months ago. Odds: 3-2 Nelson. Dem hold.

Nevada--Republican incumbent John Ensign could conceivably be vulnerable, but the odds are probably against his defeat. The current Democratic challenger in Jack Carter, son of former President Jimmy Carter. However, there is a push to get popular Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman to run. If he runs, we probably have a contest on our hands. Ensign ran his 2000 campaign promising to persuade other Senate Republicans to veto efforts to use Nevada's Yucca Mountain as the nuclear waste dump for the country. Ensign failed, giving Nevadans little reason to long for an encore. Still, Ensign has enough support to where I believe he hangs on, particularly if Goodman decides not to get in the race. Odds: 2-1 Ensign. GOP hold.

New Jersey--Senator Jon Corzine was just elected Governor of New Jersey and got to appoint his own successor. He picked Congressman Bob Menendez, who certainly could be beatable going into the November's midterms where he faces his first official Senate election. Tom Kean, Jr., a player in the New Jersey Senate and son of former Republican Governor Tom Kean could prove to be a formidable moderate Republican challenger for Menendez. Nonetheless, Republicans are on a LONG losing streak in New Jersey and I don't suspect Kean will be the guy to break that losing streak, particularly with Bush's bottom-feeding popularity in the state. I simply can't see New Jerseyans providing the wildly unpopular Republican President with cover in the form of a GOP Senate ally this fall. Nonetheless, a weak Menendez campaign or a serious charisma gap could produce an upset. Odds: 3-2 Menendez. Dem hold.

New Mexico--Long-time Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman seems highly unlikely to be defeated. I don't think he has any organized GOP opposition yet. Odds: 25-1 Bingaman. Dem hold.

New York--Hillary Clinton is gonna win. No surprise there. Westchester District Attorney Jeanne Pirro's challenge got off to such a miserable start that she dropped out of the race before Christmas, leaving Hillary no serious opposition heading into 2006. Richard Nixon's son-in-law is rumored to be mulling a run on the GOP side, but it seems very unlikely to be successful. As a partisan Democrat who sees a Hillary Presidential candidate in 2008 as a sure loser, I've been hoping a serious Republican challenge would emerge and hold her to under 55%, thus weakening her to the point that she decides against running for President. Unless Rudy Guiliani decides to run, and there's no indication he has plans to do so, it doesn't look as though my wish for Hillary meeting a brick wall will come to fruition. Odds: 100-1 Hillary. Dem hold.

North Dakota--Some of the nation's most unpredictable voters come from North Dakota. ND is consistently one of the most Republican states in Presidential elections and in statewide elections, yet they continue to elect card-carrying liberals to represent them in Congress. Democrat Kent Conrad is the elder of the state's all-Democratic Congressional delegation and is comfortably poised to win another term this fall. Nonetheless, Conrad had a few nervous months earlier this year when the Republicans were trying to recruit popular GOP Governor John Hoeven to challenge him. But as has been the case repeatedly, RNSC Chairperson Elizabeth Dole failed to seal the deal with Hoeven, who chose to stick around the North Dakota statehouse. Hoeven would have given Conrad a helluva run, but without him on the ballot, Conrad should skate into another term against a weak GOP sacrificial lamb. Odds: 25-1 Conrad. Dem hold.

Ohio--This will be one of the most hotly-contested races in the nation this fall. Republican incumbent Mike DeWine is proving to be very vulnerable, a victim of the internal meltdown of the Ohio Republican Party and the sagging economy of his state. His approval ratings are well below 50% and he's facing two strong challengers on the Democratic side of the aisle. Iraq war veteran and lawyer Paul Hackett narrowly lost a special election last year in an extremely Republican district in suburban Cincinnati. The charismatic Hackett's stock is on the rise and his proven appeal to conservatives in Southern Ohio make him a huge threat to DeWine if he's able to get past the primary. The insider candidate challenging Hackett is Congressman Sherrod Brown from northeastern Ohio, who has broader name recognition and a favorable voting record for Democrats, but who could more easily be demagogued as a "northeastern Ohio liberal" in the general election. Hackett, on the other hand, has a tendency to make shrill and bombastic statements that, if not tempered, could produce a campaign-killing Howard Dean-esque "Yeeeaghhh!" moment. Brown and Hackett both seem capable of beating DeWine, but Hackett's the kind of gamble that could either yield tremendous dividends or be looked back at as a huge mistake. Brown is the same bet, and perhaps a slight favorite, but the kind of guy more likely to lose by a 51-49 margin just like John Kerry did in 2004. Nonetheless, I think the anti-GOP momentum will get one of these guys elected this fall. Odds: 51-49 Dems. Dem gain (+3 Dems).

Pennsylvania--Last year at this time, disillusioned Democrats looked at the bleak list of 2006 Senate contests expecting another defensive year with few opportunities for gains. One of their few prospects for gains looked to be in Pennsylvania, where arch-conservative two-term incumbent Rick Santorum was expected to be vulnerable after a number of wingnut comments he had recently made. More than a dozen polls confirm their suspicions that Santorum is vulnerable to Democratic challenger Bob Casey. Not only is Santorum vulnerable, he's in deep trouble. The most optimistic polls are showing him trailing Casey by nine points. On average, Santorum is facing a deficit of about 12 points. I expect that as the campaign heats up, Santorum will close the gap, but he still seems poised for a rather sound defeat and is easily the Dems' safest bet for picking up a seat. Odds: 2-1 Casey. Dem gain. (+4 Dems)

Rhode Island--Lincoln Chafee is the most liberal Republican in Congress. He publicly opposes the Bush administration and informed the media that he did not even vote for Bush in the 2004 election. Indeed, Chafee cites his only reason for staying in the Republican Party is that his father (former RI Senator John Chafee) would roll over in his grave if his son switched parties. This has made Lincoln vulnerable from two sides in 2006. He's facing a primary challenge from a "real Republican," Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, that could easily put the brakes on his efforts to maintain his seat. And if Chafee survives the primary, he still faces a general election challenge in the most Democratic state of the union. Ordinarily, Rhode Islanders would be likely to give the liberal Chafee a pass, but George Bush is about as popular as diarrhea in the state and the desire to reduce Bush's Congressional majorities may end up being a motivator to replace Chafee with a sure-fire friendly next year (there's a primary on the Dem side as well). I can't see Chafee's fence-straddling ways surviving two fierce challenges, so I'm guessing he loses in either the primary or the general. Either way, the Dems should be able to win back this seat. Odds: 3-2 Dems. Dem gain. (+5 Dems)

Tennessee--Republican Bill Frist is retiring after two terms, leaving this seat open and giving the Democrats a prospect for picking up a Southern Senate seat. The Democratic candidate is Memphis Congressman Harold Ford, an affable and youthful African-American who has established a centrist voting record which he believes has positioned him well for a Senate run in this increasingly conservative state. Personally, I can't see it happening. In the 140 years following the Civil War, exactly one black candidate has been elected statewide in the South (former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder). Stealth racism seems very likely to suppress Ford's margin, along with a number of other factors. Ford is from a deep-rooted Memphis political family, half of whom are currently under indictment. Furthermore, Ford has it bass-ackwards with his centrism. Democrats win in Tennessee by being economically populist and socially conservative. Ford's profile is the opposite. Opposition is stiff and plentiful, including former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, along with millionaire Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Harold Ford might be a good candidate in a number of states, but I don't think Tennessee is one of them. I suspect that whichever of the Republican challengers wins the primary will beat him in the general election, despite optimistic early polls. Ford will need to pitch the political equivalent of a perfect game to prevail here, and I don't think he's capable of that. Odds: 3-1 Republicans. GOP hold.

Utah--One of the least controversial calls I'm making here.....Republican Orrin Hatch will easily win another term. Odds: 1,000-1 Hatch. GOP hold.

Vermont--Democrat-caucusing Independent Jim Jeffords is retiring, and rather surprisingly, his seat looks poised to go to another Democrat-caucusing Independent, current Vermont House representative Bernie Sanders. Sanders is officially a Socialist and will easily be the Senate's most progressive voice when elected, which is extremely likely given his iconic profile in Vermont. Odds: 10-1 Sanders. Ind. hold.

Virginia--It doesn't seem likely that Presidential hopeful George Allen will be defeated next year, particularly after the Dems couldn't convince recent VA Governor and fellow Presidential hopeful Mark Warner to challenge him. At this stage, Allen could face a modest challenge from military lawyer James Webb, but so far just has a token opponent named Harris Miller. Another name being floated around as a potential challenger is actor/activist Ben Affleck, which would bring about a stinging defeat in Virginia and probably hurt Democrats nationwide. Thankfully, that's unlikely to happen. Odds: 10-1 Allen. GOP hold.

Washington--One-term incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell could possibly be vulnerable, but at this stage she looks safer than what was expected a year ago. Cantwell dodged a bullet when Dino Rossi, the loser of last year's razor-thin Washington gubernatorial race, decided not to challenge her. Rossi has a great deal of sympathy because of the perception that the election was stolen from him and would have posed a serious challenge to Cantwell. Some resentment lingers towards Washington Democrats over the dubious election outcome, but it appears that resentment towards George Bush is trumping it, at least at the Federal level. Cantwell will nonetheless face a modest challenge from State Republican Chair and self-financing millionaire Mike McGavick. Early polls show a solid lead for Cantwell, but it's not inconceivable that McGavick could score an upset here. Odds: 3-1 Cantwell. Dem hold.

West Virginia--Eight-term incumbent Democrat Robert Byrd is running for a ninth term. A strong challenge was expected from Charleston Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito but again, Liddy Dole couldn't seal the deal and Capito opted out. Without Capito in the race, the conventional wisdom is that Byrd is a shoo-in for re-election. I'm not convinced. Byrd has moved decidedly left even as his state has moved sharply right. Furthermore, Byrd is prone to saying controversial and arrogant things, which I'm not certain if West Virginians will be as willing to forgive now that he's going separate ways from them ideologically. And lest we forget....Byrd is 87 years old. The 10 months between now and the election is an eternity for a man of Byrd's age. A stroke or a heart attack puts him out of commission and this race is immediately advantage GOP. Luckily for Byrd, he's likely to face a weak opponent in Hiram Lewis whose campaign will need a huge stumble (literal or figurative) by Byrd for him to get out of the starting gate. I'm predicting Byrd prevails here, but by a softer margin that anyone currently expects. Odds: 5-4 Byrd. Dem hold.

Wisconsin--Centrist Democrat Herb Kohl looks poised to score another comfortable victory, despite his low-profile in the Senate. The only caveat is if the Republicans are able to convince former Wisconsin Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson to get into the race, which seems unlikely at this point. Facing anybody else, Kohl will win. Odds: 25-1 Kohl. Dem hold.

Wyoming--Incumbent Republican Craig Thomas will easily win re-election, as would anyone with an (R) next to their name running in Wyoming. Odds: 250-1 Thomas. GOP hold.

So there you have it. My prediction is that the Dems gain five seats this fall, one short of what they need for a majority. The margin next year at this time will be 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats and one independent caucusing with the Dems. This is an optimistic prediction from the Democratic standpoint, but not out of line with the current reality. The Dems will have to pull off a huge upset in either Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee or Mississippi to pick up the elusive sixth seat they need for a majority. I don't see it happening, but anything's possible given the Republican Party meltdown, which could intensify this year due to the Jack Abramoff scandal. On the other hand, one cannot underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to blow a sure thing.

Stay tuned for future Senate race updates as 2006 proceeds. In the coming weeks, I'll make predictions on Governor races and a less detailed look at competitive races in the House of Representatives.

Another Nail in the Coffin of the "Collective Good"

Last week's New York City transit workers' strike was, if nothing else, an interesting social experiment. In the crosshairs of the race-to-the-bottom global economy where all the trademarks of the middle class (pensions, health insurance, liveable wages) appear headed towards extinction, here was an organized group of workers willing to draw a line in the sand and refuse to be caught up in the avalanche of "concessions" that has buried so many of their private-sector neighbors. With millions of Americans seeing their health insurance, pensions and middle-class wages sacrificed on the altar of "globalization," would the bourgeoise's boilerplate anti-labor parlor tricks work the way they usually do, consolidating the public against the "greedy thugs" on the picket lines?

With deep regret, it appears that the answer is yes. On one hand, the "liberal" corporate-owned media went out of its way to caricature the strikers as gluttonous pigs who want to make $150,000 a year for driving a bus, and they made sure that the most hostile imbecile crossing the Brooklyn Bridge to work got their mugs on camera exclaiming that "they should fire all of those sons-of-bitches." Sources of mine who live in New York City told me the mood was far less hostile to the strikers than the "liberal" media portrayed. Nonetheless, even discussions among progressives led me to believe that the growing threat of full-scale working-class genocide hasn't altered too many attitudes in George Bush's America.

In George Bush's America, sacrificing for the collective good is tantamount to a heinous crime. The inconvenience of an individual who has to walk to work or (gasp!) hail a cab for a few days trumps the long-term good that comes when workers refuse to accept their own financial persecution. In George Bush's America, those who earn less than striking transit workers are driven not towards empowerment and ascendancy in their own industries, but towards resentment and envy of the people who get them to work every day. In George Bush's America, the Puerto Rican busboy is supposed to resent African-American subway operator because, through hard-fought collective bargaining efforts, the latter has attained a higher standard of living than the former.

Wishing poverty upon your neighbor as a means of avenging your own economic bad fortune is primarily an American phenomenon. In Europe, a strike among transit workers would most likely be met by corresponding strikes by other sectors of the economy, ultimately leading to better working arrangements for all. Perhaps that scenario is less utopian than it sounds as it undermines market forces, but the American extreme of class wars waged ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE TRACKS strikes me as considerably more devastating to the prospects of upward mobility.

Now, if the transit workers had quietly accepted the original contract offer of the MTA, would they have collapsed into immediate poverty? No. But the MTA was making the first bold move in what will become a landslide of concessions meant to "streamline," "adjust," or "reconfigure" the working conditions of transit workers so it would "better reflect the market forces of the private sector." Millions of workers in industries ranging from auto manufacturing, airlines and meatpacking have gotten caught up in the "concessions" landslide in the last few decades, and their win-loss record has been pretty comparable to the 2005 Green Bay Packers.

Even if their primary motivations were rooted in self-interest, the New York City transit workers were taking a bullet for the entire American workforce last week. If there's any hope of weathering the globalization storm with any semblance of a middle class intact, the American workforce needs to start blaming the gunman shooting at them rather than the person taking the bullet for them.