Minnesota Political Races Start to Get Interesting
Even though I recently moved to Iowa, my heart will always be in Minnesota, particularly as it concerns the exciting and unpredictable world of Minnesota politics. This past weekend, several districts held their endorsement conventions. Endorsements from the rabidly partisan activists in Minnesota politics don't necessarily result in primary victories a few months down the road, but will hopefully jump-start the various campaigns into "game-on" mode after a fairly quiet couple of months.
The most encouraging development of last weekend was 6th District Republicans consolidating around wingnut Michele Bachmann as the GOP heir apparent for Mark Kennedy's seat. MN-06, located in the wealthy exurbs on the north and northwest side of the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area and extending as far as St. Cloud, is decidedly unfavorable terrain for Democrats. However, if there's any Republican capable of making independents and moderate Republicans in the area recoil in disgust, it's Bachmann, who has earned the reputation of the biggest crazy in a very crowded field at the Minnesota Legislature. She's on record as saying that gay marriage is the most important issue facing our society today. Not only is this premise way out of the mainstream of Minnesota voters, it negates her entire decision to run for Congress because she would certainly have more pull in prohibiting gay marriage within the confines of Minnesota state government than she would in the U.S. House where gay marriage is well outside of their jurisdiction.
There were three other Republicans challenging Bachmann for the endorsement in MN-06, including moderate St. Cloud Representative Jim Knoblach, fiscally conservative Representative Phil "Dr. No" Krinkie, and a businessman named Jay Esmay, all of whom plan to abide by their party's endorsement and will now drop out of the race after getting crushed by Bachmann in the district endorsement convention. Any of these three would probably be able to keep the seat in Republican hands come November, which makes it all the more sweet that the GOP decided to go with the fringe-right Bachmann in a year where their party is swimming against the tide anyway. But before I get too cocky, this is a staunchly Republican area (Bush beat Kerry here by nearly 15 points) and Bachmann still can win here, which would be the worst of all worlds since she'd embarrass Minnesota on the national stage. The Democrats will choose their candidate this weekend, between 2004's MN-06 candidate Patty Wetterling and former Blaine Mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg. I honestly don't know who's likely to prevail here, and don't even have a preference since both candidates bring their own set of assets and liabilities to the table. Whoever prevails (and both have sworn to abide by the endorsement) has been handed a Christmas gift in May with Bachmann as their opponent. Let's just hope they don't blow it.
The surprise retirement announcement by MN-05 Congressman Martin Sabo in March set off a free-for-all in the DFL with more than a dozen Democratic candidates vying for a sure-fire ticket to Congress in the liberal Minneapolis-based district. Sabo endorsed his former Chief of Staff and DFL Party Chair Mike Erlandson, who I considered the front-runner, but he came in a dismal fourth place in the endorsement process. Erlandson vows to fight on to the primary where he'll still be a contender, but the momentum is now with endorsed candidate Keith Ellison, a young legislator from Minneapolis who is both African-American and Muslim. I don't know much about Ellison but have it good authority that is a passionate and charismatic liberal who often draws comparison to Paul Wellstone. Unfortunately, he comes across much more embittered than charismatic in what little I've seen of him. I have little fear that the as-yet undecided Republican nominee will be able to beat Ellison in this overwhelmingly Democratic district (Kerry won with 72% in 2004) barring an epic scandal, but if Ellison proves controversial, it has the potential to be a drain on the rest of the ticket statewide. There's no indication that will happen, but after several past indiscretions on the part of DFL activists in the endorsement process, I sure hope they know what they're doing here.
In another exciting development, Democratic icon Jim Oberstar in Minnesota's 8th District will get his first real challenge in many years this fall. Former Senator Rod Grams has decided to contest the seat in the long-standing northeastern Minnesota DFL bastion. While it's extremely unlikely that Grams will unseat Oberstar, he does have a feather in his cap being the only Republican to have won this district in recent memory, narrowly defeating lackluster DFL Senate candidate Ann Wynia in 1994 in MN-08. However, he got blown away in the district six years later against Mark Dayton, barely managing to win the district's Republican pockets in the Brainerd lake country. And Oberstar will prove considerably more challenging of a foe than Dayton, and certainly more challenging than Wynia who was on the receiving end of anti-Clinton sentiment on the Iron Range following the signing of NAFTA and the assault weapons ban. With that said, MN-08 is adding new Republicans every election cycle with the northern exurbs near Cambridge and North Branch (Grams' neck of the woods) rapidly growing and the DFL base in the Iron Range slowly shrinking. Combine that with the name recognition and infusion of cash Grams will bring to the table that Oberstar's recent token opponents have lacked and you have the makings of a third-tier contest. If Grams is able to hold Oberstar to less than 60%, the GOP will have accomplished its goal, challenging the DFL on its home turf and possibly strengthening Pawlenty and Kennedy at the top of the ticket.
That's three of Minnesota's eight Congressional districts. As for the other five, it may or may not turn out to be business as usual. Democrat Betty McCollum doesn't have an opponent yet in St. Paul-based MN-04, but it's hard to imagine her being vulnerable. Ditto for conservative Democrat Collin Peterson who represents western Minnesota who is almost certain to win by his usual 2-1 margin against whatever token opponent the GOP throws at him. In MN-03, Wendy Wilde will be this year's challenger to moderate Republican Jim Ramstad. The wealthy suburbs of western Hennepin County are becoming less Republican by the day, but I can't imagine a scenario where Ramstad (good buddy of the late Paul Wellstone) will be swept up in an anti-Republican tide. I wish Wilde luck and hope she can hold Ramstad to under 60%, which would be a coup in itself and set her up for a future run when Ramstad retires.
Potentially more competitive are MN-01 and MN-02, both held by conservative Republicans. There was hope for Time Magazine Person of the Year Coleen Rowley early on, believing she could be capable of picking off two-term incumbent John Kline in this solidly Republican district in the southern suburbs. Rowley's campaign has been lackluster thus far, however, and her aggressive anti-war posturing seems incompatible with the self-absorbed yuppies of Shakopee, Chanhassen, and Apple Valley. State Senator Sharon Marko temporarily threw her hat in the ring in the winter, sharing the conventional wisdom that Rowley was blowing it. Marko has since deferred the candidacy back to Rowley, who is somewhat back on track but still a huge longshot here.
Surprisingly, six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht in MN-01 is now viewed as more potentially vulnerable, as his opponent, a charismatic Afghanistan war veteran named Tim Walz, has come out of nowhere with some impressive fundraising totals and an air of momentum surrounding his candidacy. This district is not nearly as Republican as it used to be and Walz very much seems to be the right guy at the right time with the potential of painting the district blue. Gutknecht has managed solid if unspectacular margins against token opposition over the last few cycles, but has never been battle-tested in a tight contest. There's no guarantee this race will turn out to be a tight contest, but expect Walz to have some tough questions for Gutknecht regarding his ongoing dronish support for Bush administration policy in Iraq as well as Gutknecht breaking his self-imposed term limit pledge (he campaigned on six terms and not a day more). It's an uphill battle, but if anybody's up to challenge of slaying the plastic dragon, it's Walz.
With the entire legislature and all three constitutional offices (Secretary of State, Auditor, and Attorney General) up this fall along with marquee Senate, Governor and Congressional races, it promises to be a very exciting year in Minnesota politics. Every indication is that the state is poised for a giant leap leftward this fall (which, regretably, could be the last true hurrah for Minnesota's Democrats in the age of endless red-trending exurban expansion). If that comes to pass, there will be at least one excited Minnesota expatriate on November 7.
The most encouraging development of last weekend was 6th District Republicans consolidating around wingnut Michele Bachmann as the GOP heir apparent for Mark Kennedy's seat. MN-06, located in the wealthy exurbs on the north and northwest side of the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area and extending as far as St. Cloud, is decidedly unfavorable terrain for Democrats. However, if there's any Republican capable of making independents and moderate Republicans in the area recoil in disgust, it's Bachmann, who has earned the reputation of the biggest crazy in a very crowded field at the Minnesota Legislature. She's on record as saying that gay marriage is the most important issue facing our society today. Not only is this premise way out of the mainstream of Minnesota voters, it negates her entire decision to run for Congress because she would certainly have more pull in prohibiting gay marriage within the confines of Minnesota state government than she would in the U.S. House where gay marriage is well outside of their jurisdiction.
There were three other Republicans challenging Bachmann for the endorsement in MN-06, including moderate St. Cloud Representative Jim Knoblach, fiscally conservative Representative Phil "Dr. No" Krinkie, and a businessman named Jay Esmay, all of whom plan to abide by their party's endorsement and will now drop out of the race after getting crushed by Bachmann in the district endorsement convention. Any of these three would probably be able to keep the seat in Republican hands come November, which makes it all the more sweet that the GOP decided to go with the fringe-right Bachmann in a year where their party is swimming against the tide anyway. But before I get too cocky, this is a staunchly Republican area (Bush beat Kerry here by nearly 15 points) and Bachmann still can win here, which would be the worst of all worlds since she'd embarrass Minnesota on the national stage. The Democrats will choose their candidate this weekend, between 2004's MN-06 candidate Patty Wetterling and former Blaine Mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg. I honestly don't know who's likely to prevail here, and don't even have a preference since both candidates bring their own set of assets and liabilities to the table. Whoever prevails (and both have sworn to abide by the endorsement) has been handed a Christmas gift in May with Bachmann as their opponent. Let's just hope they don't blow it.
The surprise retirement announcement by MN-05 Congressman Martin Sabo in March set off a free-for-all in the DFL with more than a dozen Democratic candidates vying for a sure-fire ticket to Congress in the liberal Minneapolis-based district. Sabo endorsed his former Chief of Staff and DFL Party Chair Mike Erlandson, who I considered the front-runner, but he came in a dismal fourth place in the endorsement process. Erlandson vows to fight on to the primary where he'll still be a contender, but the momentum is now with endorsed candidate Keith Ellison, a young legislator from Minneapolis who is both African-American and Muslim. I don't know much about Ellison but have it good authority that is a passionate and charismatic liberal who often draws comparison to Paul Wellstone. Unfortunately, he comes across much more embittered than charismatic in what little I've seen of him. I have little fear that the as-yet undecided Republican nominee will be able to beat Ellison in this overwhelmingly Democratic district (Kerry won with 72% in 2004) barring an epic scandal, but if Ellison proves controversial, it has the potential to be a drain on the rest of the ticket statewide. There's no indication that will happen, but after several past indiscretions on the part of DFL activists in the endorsement process, I sure hope they know what they're doing here.
In another exciting development, Democratic icon Jim Oberstar in Minnesota's 8th District will get his first real challenge in many years this fall. Former Senator Rod Grams has decided to contest the seat in the long-standing northeastern Minnesota DFL bastion. While it's extremely unlikely that Grams will unseat Oberstar, he does have a feather in his cap being the only Republican to have won this district in recent memory, narrowly defeating lackluster DFL Senate candidate Ann Wynia in 1994 in MN-08. However, he got blown away in the district six years later against Mark Dayton, barely managing to win the district's Republican pockets in the Brainerd lake country. And Oberstar will prove considerably more challenging of a foe than Dayton, and certainly more challenging than Wynia who was on the receiving end of anti-Clinton sentiment on the Iron Range following the signing of NAFTA and the assault weapons ban. With that said, MN-08 is adding new Republicans every election cycle with the northern exurbs near Cambridge and North Branch (Grams' neck of the woods) rapidly growing and the DFL base in the Iron Range slowly shrinking. Combine that with the name recognition and infusion of cash Grams will bring to the table that Oberstar's recent token opponents have lacked and you have the makings of a third-tier contest. If Grams is able to hold Oberstar to less than 60%, the GOP will have accomplished its goal, challenging the DFL on its home turf and possibly strengthening Pawlenty and Kennedy at the top of the ticket.
That's three of Minnesota's eight Congressional districts. As for the other five, it may or may not turn out to be business as usual. Democrat Betty McCollum doesn't have an opponent yet in St. Paul-based MN-04, but it's hard to imagine her being vulnerable. Ditto for conservative Democrat Collin Peterson who represents western Minnesota who is almost certain to win by his usual 2-1 margin against whatever token opponent the GOP throws at him. In MN-03, Wendy Wilde will be this year's challenger to moderate Republican Jim Ramstad. The wealthy suburbs of western Hennepin County are becoming less Republican by the day, but I can't imagine a scenario where Ramstad (good buddy of the late Paul Wellstone) will be swept up in an anti-Republican tide. I wish Wilde luck and hope she can hold Ramstad to under 60%, which would be a coup in itself and set her up for a future run when Ramstad retires.
Potentially more competitive are MN-01 and MN-02, both held by conservative Republicans. There was hope for Time Magazine Person of the Year Coleen Rowley early on, believing she could be capable of picking off two-term incumbent John Kline in this solidly Republican district in the southern suburbs. Rowley's campaign has been lackluster thus far, however, and her aggressive anti-war posturing seems incompatible with the self-absorbed yuppies of Shakopee, Chanhassen, and Apple Valley. State Senator Sharon Marko temporarily threw her hat in the ring in the winter, sharing the conventional wisdom that Rowley was blowing it. Marko has since deferred the candidacy back to Rowley, who is somewhat back on track but still a huge longshot here.
Surprisingly, six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht in MN-01 is now viewed as more potentially vulnerable, as his opponent, a charismatic Afghanistan war veteran named Tim Walz, has come out of nowhere with some impressive fundraising totals and an air of momentum surrounding his candidacy. This district is not nearly as Republican as it used to be and Walz very much seems to be the right guy at the right time with the potential of painting the district blue. Gutknecht has managed solid if unspectacular margins against token opposition over the last few cycles, but has never been battle-tested in a tight contest. There's no guarantee this race will turn out to be a tight contest, but expect Walz to have some tough questions for Gutknecht regarding his ongoing dronish support for Bush administration policy in Iraq as well as Gutknecht breaking his self-imposed term limit pledge (he campaigned on six terms and not a day more). It's an uphill battle, but if anybody's up to challenge of slaying the plastic dragon, it's Walz.
With the entire legislature and all three constitutional offices (Secretary of State, Auditor, and Attorney General) up this fall along with marquee Senate, Governor and Congressional races, it promises to be a very exciting year in Minnesota politics. Every indication is that the state is poised for a giant leap leftward this fall (which, regretably, could be the last true hurrah for Minnesota's Democrats in the age of endless red-trending exurban expansion). If that comes to pass, there will be at least one excited Minnesota expatriate on November 7.
posted by Mark at 4:34 PM
4 Comments:
Hey, we have something in common! I may live in Texas, but my heart will always be in my native California!
I am keeping very close watch on California and Texas races, and interestingly, they have many things in common. Both gubernatorial races will be fun to watch, both Senate races are no-contests, and both have three interesting House races (CA-11, 26, 50; TX-10, 17, 22), one each in which the incumbent was a Repub that resigned because of scandals, and the Dems running in each district have chances, though it is odds-against for both Busby and Lampson.
(I put TX-10 in because until now I have not seen a Presidential candidate from a non-major party subsequently run for the House, and I think Badnarik has a better chance than the Democrat Ted Ankrum and will likely give McCaul a run for his money.)
It will be interesting to see what will become of Texas in its Bush-less, Hispanic-heavy future. Happily, California is continuing its leftward trend, and if Democrats score major wins this year and in 2008, there will be at least one thrilled California expatriate, who will also be thrilled to return to a bluer California in a few years when she finishes school!
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Sara, I see your old Congressman Dave Dreier was a leading cheerleader for Bush's latest budget-busting tax cut for the rich on the floor of Congress today. Is the district wealthy enough to where Dreier has a reasonable expectation of being rewarded for such profligacy? Or do you suspect his mindless preening for the camera in defense of more tax cuts will turn more people in CA-26 off than on?
I don't know if Dreier's trumpeting of the "welfare for the elite" is going to resonate in the Inland Empire; the median household income there is about $60,000. But considering the leftward shift (approvals for Bush and Arnold in the Inland Empire are about the same as their approvals statewide [low 30s]) and the fiscally moderate/conservative views that predominate in the area, I would not be surprised to see voters take out their anger on Dreier because of it.
Interestingly, Feinstein's and Boxer's approvals in the IE are also similar to their approvals statewide (low 50s).
Dreier's trumpeting of "welfare for the elite" may also backfire because of the demographics of the district, as CA-26 is less of a "rich white man's" area than it used to be. More than 40% of the district is minority (5.2% Black, 16.7% Asian; 24.4% Hispanic).
Immigration is also going to make this race fun; Dreier calls himself "tough on immigration", and will be challenged by anti-illegal-immigration advocate Sonny Sadro in the Republican primary.
As for the Democrat primary, I was originally leaning towards Russ Warner but found out that Cynthia Matthews, Dreier's 2004 challenger who held him to 54%, is running again. It would be funny to see a "suspected closet homosexual" Republican replaced by an openly gay Democrat.
Haven't seen any polls yet, but I think Matthews may have a better chance at knocking off Dreier now, as Dreier's single-digit margin of victory in 2004 was considerably less than his 30% margin in 2000 (and 2002), even though 2004 was a Republican-friendly year. I don't know if my fellow Inland Empireans want an openly gay representative, but given the anti-Republican sentiment in a lot of areas, including the IE, anything's possible...
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