Updated House Race Predictions
Like the Senate races I profiled this weekend, there has been a great deal of movement in the unusually long list of competitive House races coming this November. Many of my original predictions last January are now obsolete, necessitating this update which I will divide into three tiers. Top-tier races are what I consider to be the most competitive races that are shaping up for the fall; second-tier races have a good chance of being competitive in the event of strong partisan movement nationally or a change of circumstances locally; and third-tier races are longshot bids where the incumbent party is unlikely to lose but the potential exists for an upset. In a few of these races, I'll be changing my call from January. Without further adieu....
Top-tier races
Arizona, District 8--The retirement of moderate Republican Jim Kolbe in this "pink" district in the southeastern corner of Arizona has given Democrats a definite pickup opportunity. Photogenic Gabrielle Giffords is challenging Desert Storm veteran Jeff Latas in the Democratic primary while the frontrunner in the wide-open field of Republicans is immigration hawk Randy Graf. There's some fear in GOP circles (and glee in Dem circles) that Graf will not play in this border district, but I think he will. In a normal election cycle, the Dems would have a good shot at this seat, but with the immigration issue white-hot and likely to benefit the GOP, I'm increasingly pessimistic about Democrats' chances here.
Colorado, District 7--This Kerry-voting district in the affluent northern and western suburbs of Denver is considered one of the Democrats' best opportunities in the nation for a pickup. Two-term Republican Representative Bob Beauprez is running for Colorado Governor, abandoning a district that is trending towards the Democrats. There's a somewhat contentious primary battle between Democratic candidates Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm, while Republicans have consolidated their support behind candidate Rick O'Donnell. All three candidates work within Colorado's state government and it's hard to point to a clear frontrunner, but with the local and national wind at their backs this year, I'm predicting the Dems pick up this seat (+1 Dems)
Connecticut, District 2--Of all the districts in the country represented by Republicans in Congress, this rural district in eastern Connecticut is the bluest, going for John Kerry by double digits in 2004. Republican incumbent Rob Simmons has long been considered highly endangered despite a moderate voting record, and his 2002 opponent Joe Courtney is poised to wage an aggressive, well-funded challenge this year. I predicted in January that Simmons would be unseated and still feel that way, although with the Lieberman-Lamont primary mess dividing Connecticut Democrats, I'm less confident today than I was then. (+2 Dems)
Connecticut, District 4--Moderate Republican Christopher Shays narrowly escaped defeat against neophyte challenger Diane Farrell two years ago in this affluent southwestern Connecticut district, mainly because of opposition to the war which Shays unapologetically supports. Shays is playing such a tough defensive game in this year's re-match with Farrell that I'd be surprised if he won. Given that Lieberman primary opponent Ned Lamont is a native of this district (from uber-affluent Greenwich no less), having Lamont on the ballot may actually be an asset to Farrell and the Democrats in this district (+3 Dems)
Florida, District 22--Here's a race where I'm changing my call in favor of the Democrat. Long-time Republican incumbent Clay Shaw has always had the backing of many Democrats in this blue Palm Beach County district, and has won re-election with varying margins (he barely survived 2000). This year, however, facing a top-tier challenge from Democratic State Senator Ron Klein, along with nagging health issues following a recent lung cancer diagnosis, many Democrats seem to sense their time has come and are withholding support for Shaw. Given that Shaw has had trouble holding onto this seat in the past even with many Democrats backing him, 2006 seems to be the year where his parade could come to an end. (+4 Dems)
Georgia, District 8--A GOP court challenge to this central Georgia's district lines has made the district less favorable for conservative Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall. Meanwhile, former GOP Congressman Mac Collins is challenging Marshall for the seat this year, and holding the seat will be no easy task. An early poll showed Marshall clobbering Collins, but I'm doubtful it will hold in staunchly conservative Georgia, particularly with Republicans thoroughly exploiting illegal immigration as a national wedge issue. I think Marshall is well to the right of his party on immigration, but could very easily be the victim of guilt-by-association charges at the hands of Collins. Whatever happens, I'm expecting the political climate of the fall will heavily favor the GOP in the South, meaning I stand by my original prediction that Marshall will lose. (+3 Dems)
Georgia, District 12--Here's another district where the lines were recently re-drawn after a court challenge, making the district less favorable for one-term incumbent John Barrow, who faces a re-match from the Republican he beat two years ago, Max Burns, with less Democratic turf in this eastern Georgia district than what Barrow won with last time. I predicted a narrow re-election for Democrat Barrow in January because this district still leans Democratic, but immigration, national security, Burns' widespread name recognition, and a host of other issues make me now believe that Barrow will be defeated. (+2 Dems)
Illinois, District 6--I was originally confident that double amputee Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth could pull off a win for the Democrats in this open seat in the affluent western suburbs of Chicago held for decades by retiring Republican Henry Hyde. I'm less confident now for a number of reasons, not the least of which being the complete lack of message by the Democratic Party on the Iraq war, of which Duckworth's gravitas as a candidate has been based upon. Republican Peter Roskam will likely win this race, a reversal of my previous prediction favoring Duckworth.
Illinois, District 8--Since I'm changing calls right on down the line here, allow me to do the same in IL-08, located in the wealthy northwestern suburbs/exurbs of Chicago, where one-term Democrat incumbent Melissa Bean's Republican-lite voting record seems to be winning her friends among the country club Republicans and their special interests which dominate this conservative district. Selling out her party on nearly every vote, the Democrats may question whether a Bean win is really a "victory", but GOP challenger David McSweeney has little room to operate given his fundraising deficit and the fact that his opponent managed the endorsement from the GOP-friendly Chamber of Commerce. The only way Bean loses is if angry Democrats stay home because of her abysmal voting record.
Indiana, District 8--This largely rural district in southwestern Indiana has re-elected (however narrowly) arch-conservative Republican John Hostettler several times, but Hostettler finally faces a top-tier Democrat challenger at the worst possible time in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, a socially conservative Democrat who leads according to early internal polls. Hostettler cannot be counted out, but I continue to favor the premise that Ellsworth picks up this seat for the Dems. (+3 Dems)
Indiana, District 9--In 2004, Democratic incumbent Baron Hill fell victim to a surprise upset by Republican challenger Mike Sodrel. Two years later, voters get to either correct or validate their 2004 votes as the two candidates are locking horns for a re-match in this southeastern Indiana district across the Ohio River from Louisiville, Kentucky. An internal poll from Hill campaign reinforced by January prediction that he is poised to win back his seat. Internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but the momentum and political mood definitely is working in Hill's favor. (+4 Dems)
Iowa, District 1--Last month's primary carved out each party's nominees for this Democrat-leaning open seat in northeastern Iowa, vacated by Republican Jim Nussle who is running for Iowa Governor. Democrats see this as perhaps their best pickup opportunity in the country and are running candidate Bruce Braley against moderate Republican Mike Whalen. This is still a wide-open race featuring untested candidates, making it hard to declare a definite advantage, but demographics are certainly on the side of Democrat Braley in a district John Kerry won by seven points. (+5 Dems)
Iowa, District 3--This central Iowa district, where I currently live, is home to the Democratic incumbent whom many analysts consider to be the most vulnerable in the nation. Leonard Boswell was largely reapportioned into most of this 50-50 district in 2002, and has never really seemed to consolidate his support, particularly in the Des Moines area. His health failed him last year and while he's reportedly healthy again, he's lacking in the fundraising horserace against State Senate President Jeff Lamberti, a strong Republican candidate who is likely to run the table in the conservative Des Moines suburbs which he represents in the Iowa Legislature. Just as I was sweating for Boswell six months ago, I continue to sweat for him today. I'm anticipating a very close race, but continue to lean narrowly in Boswell's favor given that it looks to be a Democratic year.
Kentucky, District 4--Nobody saw this one coming in January, but retired three-term conservative Democrat Congressman Ken Lucas decided to un-retire and challenge the one-term Republican who won his open seat in 2004, Geoff Davis. Lucas has his work cut out for him as this northeastern Kentucky district across the river from Cincinnati is very Republican and barely re-elected him in 2002. Nonetheless, Lucas is the only Democrat who could win this district, and it's very possible that he may. Unfortunately, I'm leaning towards it not happening as immigration and other wedge issues are sure to make places like this very inhospitable for Democrats come November. Without the power of incumbency, Lucas will have a hard time pulling out a win.
Louisiana, District 3--Conservative Democrat Charlie Melancon would seem to have his ducks in a row for re-election, having fought mightily against the CAFTA agreement which deeply undermines the sugar industry that dominates his southeastern Louisiana district. And he was widely praised for revealing unfavorable FEMA e-mails to the public after Hurricane Katrina. Still, I'm not confident about Melancon's re-election prospects at this point. First, Republican opponent Craig Romero seems to be reining in some significant endorsements, including some from Democrats. Second, it remains a mystery the quantity and demography of voters that have vacated this district after last fall's twin hurricanes. Third and perhaps most important, Louisianans are outraged about the glacially slow pace of rebuilding, and are furious about the saturation of their communities by low-wage undocumented workers doing the rebuilding work at much lower wages than what locals would otherwise make, which plays right into the GOP's anti-immigration platform. With all these things working against him, I'm now betting on a loss for Melancon. (+4 Dems)
Minnesota, District 6--My dreams came true when Republicans nominated uber-wingnut Michele Bachmann as their candidate in this conservative suburban/exurban district north of Minneapolis-St. Paul over more moderate Republican challengers. Any other Republican would most likely defeat Patty Wetterling, the surprise candidate for the Democrats, but Bachmann has built such a bad reputation for her extremist views in the Legislature that I'm narrowly favoring a Wetterling victory at this point. If Bachmann manages to win, my "dreams" of today will become a nightmare for tomorrow. (+5 Dems)
New Mexico, District 1--This Democratic-leaning district in and around Albuquerque features Republican incumbent Heather Wilson up against her first strong Democratic challenger, State Attorney General Patricia Madrid. This promises to be a very competitive race as Wilson is a skilled campaigner who may be able to hold back the Democratic tide in her district yet again if she runs her campaign right. I'm narrowly betting on Madrid, however, given that Democratic incumbents Bill Richardson (Governor) and Jeff Bingaman (Senator) will win re-election by landslide margins and will likely have some coattails. That could cut the other way too, however, suppressing Democratic turnout. Nonetheless, I continue to favor Madrid picking up a seat for the Dems here as this heavily Hispanic district may be one of the few places where the Republican immigration platform hurts the GOP more than Democrats. (+6 Dems)
New York, District 20--The Democrats think they have a good shot at unseating upstate New York GOP incumbent John Sweeney this year on the strength of an unpopular national Republican party and a forecasted Democratic tidal wave in New York (Elliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton). Indeed, the Dems have an attractive young candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand who could make some waves, but I'm not yet convinced Sweeney will be unseated in one of New York's few districts that is comfortably Republican.
New York, District 24--The retirement early this year by centrist Republican Congressman Sherwood Boehlert left an open seat that gives Democrats their best chance to pick up a seat in New York this year. Don't let the Democrats' optimism fool you though....this is a district where George Bush won by six points in 2004. With that in mind and the fact that a moderate Republican (whose name escapes me) will be running for the GOP while the Dems have yet to settle on a candidate leads me to believe that this will be another missed opportunity for the Democrats.
New York, District 29--The most Republican district in New York narrowly elected conservative Republican Randy Kuhl to the open seat in 2004. Two years later, the controversial Kuhl is being challenged in this southwestern New York district by Democratic Iraq war veteran Eric Massa. Early polls indicate a close race and I'd love to be surprised here, but this is pretty solid GOP turf and I continue to find it hard to believe an incumbent like Kuhl will be beaten.
North Carolina, District 11--The Democrats pulled off a recruiting coup in this rural and conservative district in western North Carolina when former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler agreed to take on scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Charles Taylor. Six months ago, I predicted a Shuler victory and early polls have been favorable, but Shuler's lack of political experience and a nationalized anti-immigration platform by the GOP (likely to be very well-received in NC) now strike me as likely to drag Taylor across the finish line for another term.
Ohio, District 6--Democrat Ted Strickland is abandoning this rural southeastern Ohio district to run for Governor, forcing the Dems to play defense in a 50-50 blue-collar district. An almost fatal gaffe was made was Democratic candidate Charlie Wilson when his ballot petition was submitted without enough signatures to qualify. This forced Wilson to run an aggressive write-in campaign in the Ohio primary, which was more successful than anyone imagined and may end up to be a net positive for Wilson since the campaign raised his name ID heading into the general election. Wilson was already the frontrunner in this race against Republican State Senator Chuck Blasdel, but with the improved name ID, is now probably faring even better than he did before the insufficient ballot submission. Couple this with coattails in the district from gubernatorial candidate Strickland and I'd very surprised if Wilson didn't win.
Ohio, District 18--As predicted, incumbent Republican Bob Ney is up to his neck in the Jack Abramoff scandal and could easily face indictment between now and election day. Luckily for Ney, Democratic primary voters royally screwed-up and passed over Chillicothe Mayor and Vietnam vet Joe Sulzer in favor of New Philadelphia attorney Zack Space, a fourth-rate challenger running an exclusively anti-Ney campaign. With that in mind, Space's only hope of winning is if Ney gets indicted. If Ney escapes indictment, Space's entire campaign theme has fallen apart. And even if Ney is indicted, I'm not convinced voters will choose in favor of the lackluster Space in this heavily Republican eastern Ohio district. At this point, I'm betting on Ney to pull this out against all odds.
Pennsylvania, District 6--Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach from this suburban Philadelphia district barely won his two previous bids for Congress and is considered perhaps the most endangered Republican incumbent in the nation as he faces another challenge from his 2004 opponent Lois Murphy. Given the anti-incumbent and anti-GOP sentiment that seems pervasive in Pennsylvania these days, I can't see how Gerlach wins re-election. (+7 Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 7--This race wasn't even on my radar screen six months ago, but conservative Republican Curt Weldon in the suburbs of southwestern Philadelphia has emerged as vulnerable due to the partisan trendline in his district, some of his moonbat and gaffe-prone tendencies, and a top-tier challenger in military Democrat Joe Sestak. Given his 20 years of incumbency, I'm still favoring Weldon here, but it's definitely one to watch on election night.
Pennsylvania, District 8--I continue to be told that one-term Republican incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick is unbeatable in this Democrat-leaning district in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia, but I have yet to see any hard evidence that he can't be beat, particularly with Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy challenging him on Democrat-trending turf. I remain confident that Fitzpatrick will be unseated. (+8 Dems)
Texas, District 17--Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards was the only Democrat to survive Tom DeLay's gerrymander gambit in 2004, beating a fire-breathing right-wing opponent 52-48 in a central Texas district George Bush won with 70% of the vote. With that kind of partisan tide to swim against and largely new political terrain, Edwards continues to be living on borrowed time in TX-17. This time, millionaire Iraq war veteran Van Taylor will be Edwards' opponent. On paper, Taylor looks like he'd be a tough opponent, but the conventional wisdom is that he's already made a number of mistakes and will have a tough time beating the very polished Edwards, considered the most skillful Democratic politician in Texas. While I think this race will be close and would not be at all surprised if Taylor pulled it off, I'm narrowly leaning towards Edwards hanging on.
Texas, District 22--Despite profound changes in this race since my January prediction, the anticipated matchup between former Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson and former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay could still end up being a race between Lampson and DeLay. In a final effort to game the system, DeLay, seeing internal polls showing him trailing Lampson, "moved" to Virginia after the candidate filing deadline passed. His logic was that if he didn't live in TX-22, he couldn't very well be on the ballot there....and Republicans should be free to nominate another candidate for the seat, preferably one who can win. Unfortunately for the master schemer, his great plan didn't meet with the approval of a judge, who declared DeLay's name must remain on the ballot. The appeal process is underway, and it's certainly likely that DeLay could find a conservative Texas judge willing to throw out the previous judge's ruling, but that may not be determined for months. Meanwhile, DeLay has already publicly declared his retirement from the House, has disassembled his campaign staff, and has no money. It's now highly speculated that he may choose to run for the seat again. Confusing stuff, but the controversy surrounding DeLay and his involvement in this debacle is unlikely to win him any favors in the polls, even in this Republican district in the western and southern suburbs of Houston where a surprising 45% of voters rejected DeLay's re-election effort in 2004. Certainly if 45% of TX-22 residents voted against pre-indictment DeLay against a token opponent in 2004, 50.1% or more of them will vote against post-indictment DeLay up against the competent and amiable Lampson, who served some of this district's southern reaches in his previous district. If DeLay is replaced with another Republican, the seat will be more challenging for Democrats to win back, but given the compressed timeline a replacement Republican would be dealing with, Lampson's name ID and well-oiled campaign would still seem to have a serious enough advantage to pull out a win. I'm betting on Lampson here. (+9 Dems)
Virginia, District 2--This Virginia Beach-area race was in my second-tier of House races in January, but an early poll indicated a very competitive contest between one-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake and Democratic opponent Phil Kellam. I don't much in the way of specifics in this race, but I know that former Navy Secretary James Webb running for the Senate as a Democrat could be a useful ally to Kellam in picking up votes in this military-heavy district. Still, I don't have a great deal of optimism about this race and am leaning towards Drake holding on.
Washington, District 8--One-term Republican incumbent Dave Reichert narrowly won this open seat in the eastern suburbs of Seattle in 2004, despite the district going for John Kerry in the Presidential contest. Two years later, he faces a tough and well-funded Democratic opponent in Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. Despite the quasi-celebrity status of Burner, she has two things working against her. Reichert is well-liked and respected in the area due to his successful prosecution of a renowned Seattle-area serial killer from 20 years ago. And perhaps worse yet, Washington Republicans (and many swing voters) are outraged about they believe was a stolen gubernatorial election in 2004...and this is the kind of district that would be home to a fairly large number of Dino Rossi voters. Lingering hard feelings could potentially cut against Burner's efforts. Much as I'd like to see this seat swing to the Democrats, I'm doubtful it will.
West Virginia, District 1--Six months ago, this race was on nobody's radar screen. Today, conservative Democrat Allan Mollohan faces corruption charges for allegedly pocketing money meant for his constituents. Mollohan wears his "prince of pork" reputation with pride and would have otherwise been safe in this Republican-trending district in northern West Virginia, but the corruption charges may very well have made him vulnerable. There is no polling data indicating that that is the case yet, so I'm predicting Mollohan hangs onto the seat. Still, it won't surprise too many people if Mollohan is a victim of the very "Culture of Corruption" that Democrats were hoping to beat their opponents with.
Wisconsin, District 8--This remains a wide-open race with several candidates from both parties jockeying to fill this open seat in northeastern Wisconsin left behind by Republican Mark Green, who is running for Governor. There is a definite Republican tilt to this largely rural district and knowing little of the various candidates, I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the district's partisan lean which clearly points to a Republican holding the seat.
Well, those are the top-tier races....the only ones where I'm predicting party turnovers at this time. Less optimistic than I was in January, I'm now predicting the Democrats will only gain nine seats this fall, six short of winning back the House. I may have been too conservative in a few of my guesses, particularly in regards to seats in the South, but I firmly believe that support for the Senate immigration bill will cost the Democrats control of the House this fall. Only time will tell, and I'll be making a final round of predictions in mid-to-late October that I will be more inclined to stand by that the ones I've made here.
Now, here is a brief list of what I consider second-tier House contests (many of the races I considered first-tier have been downgraded since January). I expect the incumbent party to hang onto these seats as of right now, but I will keep a very close eye on them if a whiff of additional competitiveness emerges. Here are my second-tier races....
AZ-05 (currently held by Republican J.D. Hayworth)
C0-03 (Democrat John Salazar)
C0-04 (Republican Marilyn Musgrave)
CT-05 (Republican Nancy Johnson)
IL-17 (open seat vacated by Democrat Lane Evans)
NH-02 (Republican Charles Bass)
NJ-07 (Republican Mike Ferguson)
NC-08 (Republican Robin Hayes)
OH-01 (Republican Steve Chabot)
OH-15 (Republican Deborah Pryce)
PA-10 (Republican Don Sherwood)
SC-05 (Democrat John Spratt)
Not alot there as I'm being pretty conservative in separating my second-tier races from the more remote third-tier races, where I'm doubtful about the incumbent party being defeated, but don't rule out the possibility in the event of a particularly strong challenger or a partisan tidal wave. Here are the races I qualify as third-tier.....
CA-11 (Republican Richard Pombo)
CA-50 (Republican Brian Bilbray)
FL-09 (open seat vacated by Republican Michael Bilirakis)
FL-13 (open seat vacated by Republican Katherine Harris)
HA-02 (open seat vacated by Democrat Ed Case)
ID-01 (open seat vacated by Republican Butch Otter)
IL-10 (Republican Mark Kirk)
IN-02 (Republican Chris Chocola)
KY-02 (Republican Ron Lewis)
KY-03 (Republican Anne Northup)
LA-02 (Democrat William Jefferson)
LA-07 (Republican Charles Boustany)
MN-01 (Republican Gil Gutknecht)
MN-02 (Republican John Kline)
NE-01 (Republican Jeff Fortenberry)
NV-02 (open seat vacated by Republican Jim Gibbons)
NV-03 (Republican John Porter)
NY-19 (Republican Sue Kelly)
NY-25 (Republican James Walsh)
NY-26 (Republican Tom Reynolds)
OH-02 (Republican Jean Schmidt)
OH-04 (open seat vacated by Republican Michael Oxley)
OH-13 (open seat vacated by Democrat Sherrod Brown)
PA-04 (Republican Melissa Hart)
PA-13 (Democrat Allyson Schwartz)
TX-21 (Republican Lamar Smith)
UT-02 (Democrat Jim Matheson)
VT-AL (open seat vacated by Independent Bernie Sanders)
WA-02 (Democrat Rick Larsen)
WY-AL (Republican Barbara Cubin)
That's my July House prediction update. Feel free to take me on if you'd like....I welcome the input either way. Later in the week, I'll update by 2006 gubernatorial race predictions.
Top-tier races
Arizona, District 8--The retirement of moderate Republican Jim Kolbe in this "pink" district in the southeastern corner of Arizona has given Democrats a definite pickup opportunity. Photogenic Gabrielle Giffords is challenging Desert Storm veteran Jeff Latas in the Democratic primary while the frontrunner in the wide-open field of Republicans is immigration hawk Randy Graf. There's some fear in GOP circles (and glee in Dem circles) that Graf will not play in this border district, but I think he will. In a normal election cycle, the Dems would have a good shot at this seat, but with the immigration issue white-hot and likely to benefit the GOP, I'm increasingly pessimistic about Democrats' chances here.
Colorado, District 7--This Kerry-voting district in the affluent northern and western suburbs of Denver is considered one of the Democrats' best opportunities in the nation for a pickup. Two-term Republican Representative Bob Beauprez is running for Colorado Governor, abandoning a district that is trending towards the Democrats. There's a somewhat contentious primary battle between Democratic candidates Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm, while Republicans have consolidated their support behind candidate Rick O'Donnell. All three candidates work within Colorado's state government and it's hard to point to a clear frontrunner, but with the local and national wind at their backs this year, I'm predicting the Dems pick up this seat (+1 Dems)
Connecticut, District 2--Of all the districts in the country represented by Republicans in Congress, this rural district in eastern Connecticut is the bluest, going for John Kerry by double digits in 2004. Republican incumbent Rob Simmons has long been considered highly endangered despite a moderate voting record, and his 2002 opponent Joe Courtney is poised to wage an aggressive, well-funded challenge this year. I predicted in January that Simmons would be unseated and still feel that way, although with the Lieberman-Lamont primary mess dividing Connecticut Democrats, I'm less confident today than I was then. (+2 Dems)
Connecticut, District 4--Moderate Republican Christopher Shays narrowly escaped defeat against neophyte challenger Diane Farrell two years ago in this affluent southwestern Connecticut district, mainly because of opposition to the war which Shays unapologetically supports. Shays is playing such a tough defensive game in this year's re-match with Farrell that I'd be surprised if he won. Given that Lieberman primary opponent Ned Lamont is a native of this district (from uber-affluent Greenwich no less), having Lamont on the ballot may actually be an asset to Farrell and the Democrats in this district (+3 Dems)
Florida, District 22--Here's a race where I'm changing my call in favor of the Democrat. Long-time Republican incumbent Clay Shaw has always had the backing of many Democrats in this blue Palm Beach County district, and has won re-election with varying margins (he barely survived 2000). This year, however, facing a top-tier challenge from Democratic State Senator Ron Klein, along with nagging health issues following a recent lung cancer diagnosis, many Democrats seem to sense their time has come and are withholding support for Shaw. Given that Shaw has had trouble holding onto this seat in the past even with many Democrats backing him, 2006 seems to be the year where his parade could come to an end. (+4 Dems)
Georgia, District 8--A GOP court challenge to this central Georgia's district lines has made the district less favorable for conservative Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall. Meanwhile, former GOP Congressman Mac Collins is challenging Marshall for the seat this year, and holding the seat will be no easy task. An early poll showed Marshall clobbering Collins, but I'm doubtful it will hold in staunchly conservative Georgia, particularly with Republicans thoroughly exploiting illegal immigration as a national wedge issue. I think Marshall is well to the right of his party on immigration, but could very easily be the victim of guilt-by-association charges at the hands of Collins. Whatever happens, I'm expecting the political climate of the fall will heavily favor the GOP in the South, meaning I stand by my original prediction that Marshall will lose. (+3 Dems)
Georgia, District 12--Here's another district where the lines were recently re-drawn after a court challenge, making the district less favorable for one-term incumbent John Barrow, who faces a re-match from the Republican he beat two years ago, Max Burns, with less Democratic turf in this eastern Georgia district than what Barrow won with last time. I predicted a narrow re-election for Democrat Barrow in January because this district still leans Democratic, but immigration, national security, Burns' widespread name recognition, and a host of other issues make me now believe that Barrow will be defeated. (+2 Dems)
Illinois, District 6--I was originally confident that double amputee Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth could pull off a win for the Democrats in this open seat in the affluent western suburbs of Chicago held for decades by retiring Republican Henry Hyde. I'm less confident now for a number of reasons, not the least of which being the complete lack of message by the Democratic Party on the Iraq war, of which Duckworth's gravitas as a candidate has been based upon. Republican Peter Roskam will likely win this race, a reversal of my previous prediction favoring Duckworth.
Illinois, District 8--Since I'm changing calls right on down the line here, allow me to do the same in IL-08, located in the wealthy northwestern suburbs/exurbs of Chicago, where one-term Democrat incumbent Melissa Bean's Republican-lite voting record seems to be winning her friends among the country club Republicans and their special interests which dominate this conservative district. Selling out her party on nearly every vote, the Democrats may question whether a Bean win is really a "victory", but GOP challenger David McSweeney has little room to operate given his fundraising deficit and the fact that his opponent managed the endorsement from the GOP-friendly Chamber of Commerce. The only way Bean loses is if angry Democrats stay home because of her abysmal voting record.
Indiana, District 8--This largely rural district in southwestern Indiana has re-elected (however narrowly) arch-conservative Republican John Hostettler several times, but Hostettler finally faces a top-tier Democrat challenger at the worst possible time in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, a socially conservative Democrat who leads according to early internal polls. Hostettler cannot be counted out, but I continue to favor the premise that Ellsworth picks up this seat for the Dems. (+3 Dems)
Indiana, District 9--In 2004, Democratic incumbent Baron Hill fell victim to a surprise upset by Republican challenger Mike Sodrel. Two years later, voters get to either correct or validate their 2004 votes as the two candidates are locking horns for a re-match in this southeastern Indiana district across the Ohio River from Louisiville, Kentucky. An internal poll from Hill campaign reinforced by January prediction that he is poised to win back his seat. Internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but the momentum and political mood definitely is working in Hill's favor. (+4 Dems)
Iowa, District 1--Last month's primary carved out each party's nominees for this Democrat-leaning open seat in northeastern Iowa, vacated by Republican Jim Nussle who is running for Iowa Governor. Democrats see this as perhaps their best pickup opportunity in the country and are running candidate Bruce Braley against moderate Republican Mike Whalen. This is still a wide-open race featuring untested candidates, making it hard to declare a definite advantage, but demographics are certainly on the side of Democrat Braley in a district John Kerry won by seven points. (+5 Dems)
Iowa, District 3--This central Iowa district, where I currently live, is home to the Democratic incumbent whom many analysts consider to be the most vulnerable in the nation. Leonard Boswell was largely reapportioned into most of this 50-50 district in 2002, and has never really seemed to consolidate his support, particularly in the Des Moines area. His health failed him last year and while he's reportedly healthy again, he's lacking in the fundraising horserace against State Senate President Jeff Lamberti, a strong Republican candidate who is likely to run the table in the conservative Des Moines suburbs which he represents in the Iowa Legislature. Just as I was sweating for Boswell six months ago, I continue to sweat for him today. I'm anticipating a very close race, but continue to lean narrowly in Boswell's favor given that it looks to be a Democratic year.
Kentucky, District 4--Nobody saw this one coming in January, but retired three-term conservative Democrat Congressman Ken Lucas decided to un-retire and challenge the one-term Republican who won his open seat in 2004, Geoff Davis. Lucas has his work cut out for him as this northeastern Kentucky district across the river from Cincinnati is very Republican and barely re-elected him in 2002. Nonetheless, Lucas is the only Democrat who could win this district, and it's very possible that he may. Unfortunately, I'm leaning towards it not happening as immigration and other wedge issues are sure to make places like this very inhospitable for Democrats come November. Without the power of incumbency, Lucas will have a hard time pulling out a win.
Louisiana, District 3--Conservative Democrat Charlie Melancon would seem to have his ducks in a row for re-election, having fought mightily against the CAFTA agreement which deeply undermines the sugar industry that dominates his southeastern Louisiana district. And he was widely praised for revealing unfavorable FEMA e-mails to the public after Hurricane Katrina. Still, I'm not confident about Melancon's re-election prospects at this point. First, Republican opponent Craig Romero seems to be reining in some significant endorsements, including some from Democrats. Second, it remains a mystery the quantity and demography of voters that have vacated this district after last fall's twin hurricanes. Third and perhaps most important, Louisianans are outraged about the glacially slow pace of rebuilding, and are furious about the saturation of their communities by low-wage undocumented workers doing the rebuilding work at much lower wages than what locals would otherwise make, which plays right into the GOP's anti-immigration platform. With all these things working against him, I'm now betting on a loss for Melancon. (+4 Dems)
Minnesota, District 6--My dreams came true when Republicans nominated uber-wingnut Michele Bachmann as their candidate in this conservative suburban/exurban district north of Minneapolis-St. Paul over more moderate Republican challengers. Any other Republican would most likely defeat Patty Wetterling, the surprise candidate for the Democrats, but Bachmann has built such a bad reputation for her extremist views in the Legislature that I'm narrowly favoring a Wetterling victory at this point. If Bachmann manages to win, my "dreams" of today will become a nightmare for tomorrow. (+5 Dems)
New Mexico, District 1--This Democratic-leaning district in and around Albuquerque features Republican incumbent Heather Wilson up against her first strong Democratic challenger, State Attorney General Patricia Madrid. This promises to be a very competitive race as Wilson is a skilled campaigner who may be able to hold back the Democratic tide in her district yet again if she runs her campaign right. I'm narrowly betting on Madrid, however, given that Democratic incumbents Bill Richardson (Governor) and Jeff Bingaman (Senator) will win re-election by landslide margins and will likely have some coattails. That could cut the other way too, however, suppressing Democratic turnout. Nonetheless, I continue to favor Madrid picking up a seat for the Dems here as this heavily Hispanic district may be one of the few places where the Republican immigration platform hurts the GOP more than Democrats. (+6 Dems)
New York, District 20--The Democrats think they have a good shot at unseating upstate New York GOP incumbent John Sweeney this year on the strength of an unpopular national Republican party and a forecasted Democratic tidal wave in New York (Elliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton). Indeed, the Dems have an attractive young candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand who could make some waves, but I'm not yet convinced Sweeney will be unseated in one of New York's few districts that is comfortably Republican.
New York, District 24--The retirement early this year by centrist Republican Congressman Sherwood Boehlert left an open seat that gives Democrats their best chance to pick up a seat in New York this year. Don't let the Democrats' optimism fool you though....this is a district where George Bush won by six points in 2004. With that in mind and the fact that a moderate Republican (whose name escapes me) will be running for the GOP while the Dems have yet to settle on a candidate leads me to believe that this will be another missed opportunity for the Democrats.
New York, District 29--The most Republican district in New York narrowly elected conservative Republican Randy Kuhl to the open seat in 2004. Two years later, the controversial Kuhl is being challenged in this southwestern New York district by Democratic Iraq war veteran Eric Massa. Early polls indicate a close race and I'd love to be surprised here, but this is pretty solid GOP turf and I continue to find it hard to believe an incumbent like Kuhl will be beaten.
North Carolina, District 11--The Democrats pulled off a recruiting coup in this rural and conservative district in western North Carolina when former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler agreed to take on scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Charles Taylor. Six months ago, I predicted a Shuler victory and early polls have been favorable, but Shuler's lack of political experience and a nationalized anti-immigration platform by the GOP (likely to be very well-received in NC) now strike me as likely to drag Taylor across the finish line for another term.
Ohio, District 6--Democrat Ted Strickland is abandoning this rural southeastern Ohio district to run for Governor, forcing the Dems to play defense in a 50-50 blue-collar district. An almost fatal gaffe was made was Democratic candidate Charlie Wilson when his ballot petition was submitted without enough signatures to qualify. This forced Wilson to run an aggressive write-in campaign in the Ohio primary, which was more successful than anyone imagined and may end up to be a net positive for Wilson since the campaign raised his name ID heading into the general election. Wilson was already the frontrunner in this race against Republican State Senator Chuck Blasdel, but with the improved name ID, is now probably faring even better than he did before the insufficient ballot submission. Couple this with coattails in the district from gubernatorial candidate Strickland and I'd very surprised if Wilson didn't win.
Ohio, District 18--As predicted, incumbent Republican Bob Ney is up to his neck in the Jack Abramoff scandal and could easily face indictment between now and election day. Luckily for Ney, Democratic primary voters royally screwed-up and passed over Chillicothe Mayor and Vietnam vet Joe Sulzer in favor of New Philadelphia attorney Zack Space, a fourth-rate challenger running an exclusively anti-Ney campaign. With that in mind, Space's only hope of winning is if Ney gets indicted. If Ney escapes indictment, Space's entire campaign theme has fallen apart. And even if Ney is indicted, I'm not convinced voters will choose in favor of the lackluster Space in this heavily Republican eastern Ohio district. At this point, I'm betting on Ney to pull this out against all odds.
Pennsylvania, District 6--Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach from this suburban Philadelphia district barely won his two previous bids for Congress and is considered perhaps the most endangered Republican incumbent in the nation as he faces another challenge from his 2004 opponent Lois Murphy. Given the anti-incumbent and anti-GOP sentiment that seems pervasive in Pennsylvania these days, I can't see how Gerlach wins re-election. (+7 Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 7--This race wasn't even on my radar screen six months ago, but conservative Republican Curt Weldon in the suburbs of southwestern Philadelphia has emerged as vulnerable due to the partisan trendline in his district, some of his moonbat and gaffe-prone tendencies, and a top-tier challenger in military Democrat Joe Sestak. Given his 20 years of incumbency, I'm still favoring Weldon here, but it's definitely one to watch on election night.
Pennsylvania, District 8--I continue to be told that one-term Republican incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick is unbeatable in this Democrat-leaning district in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia, but I have yet to see any hard evidence that he can't be beat, particularly with Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy challenging him on Democrat-trending turf. I remain confident that Fitzpatrick will be unseated. (+8 Dems)
Texas, District 17--Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards was the only Democrat to survive Tom DeLay's gerrymander gambit in 2004, beating a fire-breathing right-wing opponent 52-48 in a central Texas district George Bush won with 70% of the vote. With that kind of partisan tide to swim against and largely new political terrain, Edwards continues to be living on borrowed time in TX-17. This time, millionaire Iraq war veteran Van Taylor will be Edwards' opponent. On paper, Taylor looks like he'd be a tough opponent, but the conventional wisdom is that he's already made a number of mistakes and will have a tough time beating the very polished Edwards, considered the most skillful Democratic politician in Texas. While I think this race will be close and would not be at all surprised if Taylor pulled it off, I'm narrowly leaning towards Edwards hanging on.
Texas, District 22--Despite profound changes in this race since my January prediction, the anticipated matchup between former Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson and former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay could still end up being a race between Lampson and DeLay. In a final effort to game the system, DeLay, seeing internal polls showing him trailing Lampson, "moved" to Virginia after the candidate filing deadline passed. His logic was that if he didn't live in TX-22, he couldn't very well be on the ballot there....and Republicans should be free to nominate another candidate for the seat, preferably one who can win. Unfortunately for the master schemer, his great plan didn't meet with the approval of a judge, who declared DeLay's name must remain on the ballot. The appeal process is underway, and it's certainly likely that DeLay could find a conservative Texas judge willing to throw out the previous judge's ruling, but that may not be determined for months. Meanwhile, DeLay has already publicly declared his retirement from the House, has disassembled his campaign staff, and has no money. It's now highly speculated that he may choose to run for the seat again. Confusing stuff, but the controversy surrounding DeLay and his involvement in this debacle is unlikely to win him any favors in the polls, even in this Republican district in the western and southern suburbs of Houston where a surprising 45% of voters rejected DeLay's re-election effort in 2004. Certainly if 45% of TX-22 residents voted against pre-indictment DeLay against a token opponent in 2004, 50.1% or more of them will vote against post-indictment DeLay up against the competent and amiable Lampson, who served some of this district's southern reaches in his previous district. If DeLay is replaced with another Republican, the seat will be more challenging for Democrats to win back, but given the compressed timeline a replacement Republican would be dealing with, Lampson's name ID and well-oiled campaign would still seem to have a serious enough advantage to pull out a win. I'm betting on Lampson here. (+9 Dems)
Virginia, District 2--This Virginia Beach-area race was in my second-tier of House races in January, but an early poll indicated a very competitive contest between one-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake and Democratic opponent Phil Kellam. I don't much in the way of specifics in this race, but I know that former Navy Secretary James Webb running for the Senate as a Democrat could be a useful ally to Kellam in picking up votes in this military-heavy district. Still, I don't have a great deal of optimism about this race and am leaning towards Drake holding on.
Washington, District 8--One-term Republican incumbent Dave Reichert narrowly won this open seat in the eastern suburbs of Seattle in 2004, despite the district going for John Kerry in the Presidential contest. Two years later, he faces a tough and well-funded Democratic opponent in Microsoft executive Darcy Burner. Despite the quasi-celebrity status of Burner, she has two things working against her. Reichert is well-liked and respected in the area due to his successful prosecution of a renowned Seattle-area serial killer from 20 years ago. And perhaps worse yet, Washington Republicans (and many swing voters) are outraged about they believe was a stolen gubernatorial election in 2004...and this is the kind of district that would be home to a fairly large number of Dino Rossi voters. Lingering hard feelings could potentially cut against Burner's efforts. Much as I'd like to see this seat swing to the Democrats, I'm doubtful it will.
West Virginia, District 1--Six months ago, this race was on nobody's radar screen. Today, conservative Democrat Allan Mollohan faces corruption charges for allegedly pocketing money meant for his constituents. Mollohan wears his "prince of pork" reputation with pride and would have otherwise been safe in this Republican-trending district in northern West Virginia, but the corruption charges may very well have made him vulnerable. There is no polling data indicating that that is the case yet, so I'm predicting Mollohan hangs onto the seat. Still, it won't surprise too many people if Mollohan is a victim of the very "Culture of Corruption" that Democrats were hoping to beat their opponents with.
Wisconsin, District 8--This remains a wide-open race with several candidates from both parties jockeying to fill this open seat in northeastern Wisconsin left behind by Republican Mark Green, who is running for Governor. There is a definite Republican tilt to this largely rural district and knowing little of the various candidates, I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the district's partisan lean which clearly points to a Republican holding the seat.
Well, those are the top-tier races....the only ones where I'm predicting party turnovers at this time. Less optimistic than I was in January, I'm now predicting the Democrats will only gain nine seats this fall, six short of winning back the House. I may have been too conservative in a few of my guesses, particularly in regards to seats in the South, but I firmly believe that support for the Senate immigration bill will cost the Democrats control of the House this fall. Only time will tell, and I'll be making a final round of predictions in mid-to-late October that I will be more inclined to stand by that the ones I've made here.
Now, here is a brief list of what I consider second-tier House contests (many of the races I considered first-tier have been downgraded since January). I expect the incumbent party to hang onto these seats as of right now, but I will keep a very close eye on them if a whiff of additional competitiveness emerges. Here are my second-tier races....
AZ-05 (currently held by Republican J.D. Hayworth)
C0-03 (Democrat John Salazar)
C0-04 (Republican Marilyn Musgrave)
CT-05 (Republican Nancy Johnson)
IL-17 (open seat vacated by Democrat Lane Evans)
NH-02 (Republican Charles Bass)
NJ-07 (Republican Mike Ferguson)
NC-08 (Republican Robin Hayes)
OH-01 (Republican Steve Chabot)
OH-15 (Republican Deborah Pryce)
PA-10 (Republican Don Sherwood)
SC-05 (Democrat John Spratt)
Not alot there as I'm being pretty conservative in separating my second-tier races from the more remote third-tier races, where I'm doubtful about the incumbent party being defeated, but don't rule out the possibility in the event of a particularly strong challenger or a partisan tidal wave. Here are the races I qualify as third-tier.....
CA-11 (Republican Richard Pombo)
CA-50 (Republican Brian Bilbray)
FL-09 (open seat vacated by Republican Michael Bilirakis)
FL-13 (open seat vacated by Republican Katherine Harris)
HA-02 (open seat vacated by Democrat Ed Case)
ID-01 (open seat vacated by Republican Butch Otter)
IL-10 (Republican Mark Kirk)
IN-02 (Republican Chris Chocola)
KY-02 (Republican Ron Lewis)
KY-03 (Republican Anne Northup)
LA-02 (Democrat William Jefferson)
LA-07 (Republican Charles Boustany)
MN-01 (Republican Gil Gutknecht)
MN-02 (Republican John Kline)
NE-01 (Republican Jeff Fortenberry)
NV-02 (open seat vacated by Republican Jim Gibbons)
NV-03 (Republican John Porter)
NY-19 (Republican Sue Kelly)
NY-25 (Republican James Walsh)
NY-26 (Republican Tom Reynolds)
OH-02 (Republican Jean Schmidt)
OH-04 (open seat vacated by Republican Michael Oxley)
OH-13 (open seat vacated by Democrat Sherrod Brown)
PA-04 (Republican Melissa Hart)
PA-13 (Democrat Allyson Schwartz)
TX-21 (Republican Lamar Smith)
UT-02 (Democrat Jim Matheson)
VT-AL (open seat vacated by Independent Bernie Sanders)
WA-02 (Democrat Rick Larsen)
WY-AL (Republican Barbara Cubin)
That's my July House prediction update. Feel free to take me on if you'd like....I welcome the input either way. Later in the week, I'll update by 2006 gubernatorial race predictions.
posted by Mark at 3:21 PM
2 Comments:
Earlier in the year I too had the Dems narrowly retaking the House, gaining a net 17 seats (19 plus losing Bean and Marshall). More recently I saw that some of my predictions were a bit too optimistic so I now have the Dems gaining a net 10 seats (gaining 11 and losing Bean). I am working on new formulae for the House seats and will revise some of my predictions. I currently believe most vulnerable Dems will win as I have not heard much on their immigration stances. I will first do an update on my "gut" feelings about competitive House races (including Lamar Smith, of which I posted some numbers on him and the district), followed by my new formulae. You could very well be right here, and I am not ruling out upsets of Melancon, Bean, Marshall, and Barrow. Heather Wilson's district, which I originally moved to a GOP hold, may return to DEM gain, not only with immigration, but with Richardson and Bingaman poised to win by over 20%. (And Richardson's immigration stance has received praise even from Republicans; he says, "NO AMNESTY".) I will list my updated views on the House in my blog, plus the new formulae when I finish them.
sara, first of all, thanks for the links to the other election prediction websites. I think Scott is gonna kill his board by banning comments as they now all seem to have gravitated to Tom's site.
My feelings are that the Democrats would handily win back the House if the election were held today. A July 12 election day would surely produce victories for incumbent Democrats like Charlie Melancon, Jim Marshall, and John Barrow...and probably for challengers Heath Shuler and Ken Lucas as well. But if I'm Craig Romero, Mac Collins, Max Burns, Charles Taylor, or Geoff Davis, I use the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill as a club to pound over the heads of my opponents over and over and over, reminding voters what will happen if the Democrats take over the House (in many cases, even when their Democratic opponents oppose the Senate bill). I can't imagine that the House GOP won't use this strategy in targeted districts where they know it'll be most likely to work. And my guess is that it works beautifully, further pushing the South and border states out of the Democrats' grasp.
I changed my call on Bean as you may have noticed. She seems to be falling off the endangered list of most professional electioneers, and her Republican-lite voting record is giving her opponent very little room to maneuver.
Looking at the specifics of these New York races, I think the Democrats are setting themselves up for a disappointment as I alluded to in the thread. My impression right now is that the only districts we even have a chance at are NY-24 and NY-29, and even those are longshots.
All in all, I think the Democrats are too weak to inspire the mushy middle while worried Republicans will have their GOTV soldiers in full force unlike the clueless Democrats of 1994 who got hoodwinked. I'm far less optimistic than I was six months ago, unfortunately.
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