State of the Presidential Race
Who can even guess what's gonna happen next at this point? Last week at this time, the Republican race still looked volatile, but it seemed all but certain that Barack Obama's surge of momentum who help him put away the Democratic nomination in short order. Think again. In a political turn of events that hearkens back thoughts of "Dewey Defeats Truman", Hillary Clinton defied everybody's expectations and won the New Hampshire primary last Tuesday. This changes everything in so many ways. Is Obama's momentum finished? Will black voters in South Carolina (and elsewhere) revert to their original belief that Obama can't be elected by whites and thus go back to the Hillary camp? It's all up in the air and anybody's guess is as good as mine, but it seems far more likely that the race will be a dogfight at this point.
Whichever Democrat wins the nomination, I have a hard time imagining them winning a national election. Whatever buzz the charismatic Obama generates, he can't go eight months running a campaign of mostly feel-good platitudes without being called on it. And he has to deliver with due gravitas when the time comes. Beyond that, the media and many supporters are going to frame every aspect of the campaign, good or bad, within the context of race. It's already happening. When Bill Clinton said Obama's long-standing opposition to the war in Iraq was "the biggest fairy tale he's ever seen", it's absurdly being spun as a slam against the electability of a black man. The surprise poll results in New Hampshire are now being sold as stealth white racism, with New Hampshire Dems being unable to pull the lever for a black man once they get into the voting booth, despite what they may have said to pollsters.
This is exactly the sort of thing I feared regarding Obama. Americans are not gonna be willing to be called racist pigs by the media every day for nine months without generating an anti-Obama backlash. And we all know the huge liabilities Hillary Clinton brings to this race. The Democratic voters who are so "happy with their choices" this year are almost certain to feel an anguished buyer's remorse this summer when they realize that both of these candidates have incredibly long odds to win an election.
The Republican side is more up in the air than the Democrats, but unfortunately it now appears that the two frontrunners are the very Republican candidates I recognized a year ago as the most difficult adversaries to defeat next November, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. If Willard doesn't win Michigan on Tuesday, he's almost certainly finished, and his prospects are dim even if he does win since the map doesn't work in his favor in the weeks ahead. Fred Thompson could conceivably be a player if he wins South Carolina, since so many of the Super Tuesday states the following week are in the South, but his prospects seem very weak now that Huckabee is gonna split the Southern vote with him. Rudy Giuliani needs a big win in Florida to propel him into Super Tuesday, but that doesn't seem likely at this point as his poll numbers even in Florida seem to be downwardly mobile.
Obviously, factions within the Republican will be wringing their hands if either of the heretic candidates, McCain or Huckabee, get the nomination, but it's highly unlikely that that will matter come November as the vast majority of Republicans will stand by their candidate once there's an actual Democratic bogeyman on the ballot that "could win". As much as the hard-right purists used to getting their way on everything may detest the Republican candidates who occasionally deviate from the party platform, the opposition will assuredly scare them into supporting the Republican. And the independent appeal of John McCain or the everyman appeal of the folksy Huckabee will steal would-be votes from Democrats in a way that the less likable and hard-right Giuliani, Thompson, and Willard would not be able to.
As much as I enjoy the uncanny competitiveness of both parties' primaries, it's hard to get excited about the Democrats' prospects for the fall as they stand poised to nominate longshot candidates against personable and well-spoken Republicans with independent appeal, most likely with blistering downballot consequences.
Whichever Democrat wins the nomination, I have a hard time imagining them winning a national election. Whatever buzz the charismatic Obama generates, he can't go eight months running a campaign of mostly feel-good platitudes without being called on it. And he has to deliver with due gravitas when the time comes. Beyond that, the media and many supporters are going to frame every aspect of the campaign, good or bad, within the context of race. It's already happening. When Bill Clinton said Obama's long-standing opposition to the war in Iraq was "the biggest fairy tale he's ever seen", it's absurdly being spun as a slam against the electability of a black man. The surprise poll results in New Hampshire are now being sold as stealth white racism, with New Hampshire Dems being unable to pull the lever for a black man once they get into the voting booth, despite what they may have said to pollsters.
This is exactly the sort of thing I feared regarding Obama. Americans are not gonna be willing to be called racist pigs by the media every day for nine months without generating an anti-Obama backlash. And we all know the huge liabilities Hillary Clinton brings to this race. The Democratic voters who are so "happy with their choices" this year are almost certain to feel an anguished buyer's remorse this summer when they realize that both of these candidates have incredibly long odds to win an election.
The Republican side is more up in the air than the Democrats, but unfortunately it now appears that the two frontrunners are the very Republican candidates I recognized a year ago as the most difficult adversaries to defeat next November, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. If Willard doesn't win Michigan on Tuesday, he's almost certainly finished, and his prospects are dim even if he does win since the map doesn't work in his favor in the weeks ahead. Fred Thompson could conceivably be a player if he wins South Carolina, since so many of the Super Tuesday states the following week are in the South, but his prospects seem very weak now that Huckabee is gonna split the Southern vote with him. Rudy Giuliani needs a big win in Florida to propel him into Super Tuesday, but that doesn't seem likely at this point as his poll numbers even in Florida seem to be downwardly mobile.
Obviously, factions within the Republican will be wringing their hands if either of the heretic candidates, McCain or Huckabee, get the nomination, but it's highly unlikely that that will matter come November as the vast majority of Republicans will stand by their candidate once there's an actual Democratic bogeyman on the ballot that "could win". As much as the hard-right purists used to getting their way on everything may detest the Republican candidates who occasionally deviate from the party platform, the opposition will assuredly scare them into supporting the Republican. And the independent appeal of John McCain or the everyman appeal of the folksy Huckabee will steal would-be votes from Democrats in a way that the less likable and hard-right Giuliani, Thompson, and Willard would not be able to.
As much as I enjoy the uncanny competitiveness of both parties' primaries, it's hard to get excited about the Democrats' prospects for the fall as they stand poised to nominate longshot candidates against personable and well-spoken Republicans with independent appeal, most likely with blistering downballot consequences.
posted by Mark at 8:26 AM
4 Comments:
I never thought I would say this, but if Hillary gets the Democratic nomination, I will be voting for John McCain in the general election.
And why would you do that? McCain would set back the progressive movement for generations when he appoints two or three more hard-right Supreme Court justices.
Clinton would do the exact same thing, but there is one difference, and that is that McCain won't cost us Congress in 2010.
mr. philps what gives you that information?
Lets support Romney. No matter what angle you look at, he has something for you!
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