McCain's Veep Selection Does Exactly What Was Intended
John McCain was crazy--CRAZY!!!--to have made such a reckless selection for his running mate with Sarah Palin! He just cost himself the election, say the critics of the Sarah Palin selection. Well, crazy like a fox, maybe.
It's taken me several days to fully process the surprise selection of Sarah Palin, and we still won't know until her convention speech tonight (or is tomorrow? I can't even keep track anymore) if this woman has the gravitas to be an asset or a trainwreck for the McCain campaign. But even if she flops and the full-throated media and opposition scrutiny continues for weeks to come, the entire election campaign has now been reframed to John McCain's benefit. Remember those quaint fantasies everybody in Democratic circles was clinging to five days ago that the primary "issues" of the 2008 election would be the sagging economy, health care, and the war in Iraq? With the brief introductory comments of Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin last week, the entire framework of this campaign has collapsed in a political earthquake that goes right off the Richter scale. With the media fanning the flames every step of the day, we can now be assured the Obama campaign will be in a constant state of defense, debating oil drilling, teen pregnancy, gun ownership, and most devastatingly, abortion, for the next 60 days.
While it's indisputable that McCain forfeited the "experience" argument by selecting one of the incredibly few people in American politics who have even less experience than Barack Obama, the dirty little secret is that he has exhausted the need for that argument. Beginning on Labor Day weekend, the 2008 Presidential election is now exclusively about the culture war. Up until now, there have been vague and petty cultural obsessions like flag lapel pins and arugula that effectively deferred any worthwhile political discussion and assured us, unsurprisingly, that this would be just as "small" of an election as any in recent memory despite the quadrennial hype of it being "the most important election of our lifetimes". But there has not been any tangible culture war red meat for the right to latch their jaws onto. With the Palin selection, the red meat deficit quickly transformed into a surplus. Republicans can now fill the airwaves with righteous indignation about persecution at the hands of the media and fire up the cultural warriors on all the wedge issues, and the more legitimate (or illegitimate) fodder is put out there about Palin, the more we can expect the long-suffering far right to rally behind her. They haven't had a cross to carry for the future of humanity thus far this election year, but they do with Palin.
Does this in itself assure McCain of victory? Not necessarily. Palin is poised to be a very polarizing figure and it's not yet clear whether she'll end up on the majority (or plurality) end of that polarization and thus benefit McCain. But do not underestimate the prospects that she will, especially since she's pushing all the right buttons with the very "white working class" voters that represent Obama's most elusive demographic. Furthermore, don't underestimate the prospect of a redneck backlash, which the McCain campaign effectively seized upon after Obama's speech in Germany, painting him as a celebrity and turning popularity among "elitists" into a liability. It seems just as likely that a backlash will emerge among the public if scrutiny of Palin is perceived to be too personal. The Obama campaign seems to realize the necessity of treading lightly. The media does not, which feeds right into the same "everyday people vs. the elite" narrative the GOP has effectively exploited over and over in past election campaigns, most recently with the Obama "celebrity" theme.
The speech tonight is the test that will determine if Palin will play in Peoria (or Scranton, which we're now told is the new Peoria). If she pulls it off, Obama's in serious trouble. And even if she doesn't, the direction of the campaign will have permanently changed, the right-wing will be fired up, and the media will accommodate the Republican effort to reignite the culture war. Particularly as it applies to abortion, this is terrible news. Right-wing columnist Jeff Jacoby wrote a column today citing how Obama has "taken a harder line in defense of abortion rights than any other candidate the Democrats have ever nominated", and cited examples. The logic in the examples might be dubious, but the working-class cafeteria Catholics of rural Pennsylvania are unlikely to skeptically view the literature underneath their car windshield in the church parking lot on Sunday, November 2, citing the same examples Jacoby cites. While most Americans identify themselves as "pro-choice", a significant number of them put an asterisk next to that support. For the right to be able to paint Obama as a candidate who does not put an asterisk next to any aspect of his abortion platform will assure those voters identify themselves culturally closer to McCain than Obama. For this campaign to be about abortion would be devastating for Obama, and the Palin selection assures us that's where it's headed.
It's taken me several days to fully process the surprise selection of Sarah Palin, and we still won't know until her convention speech tonight (or is tomorrow? I can't even keep track anymore) if this woman has the gravitas to be an asset or a trainwreck for the McCain campaign. But even if she flops and the full-throated media and opposition scrutiny continues for weeks to come, the entire election campaign has now been reframed to John McCain's benefit. Remember those quaint fantasies everybody in Democratic circles was clinging to five days ago that the primary "issues" of the 2008 election would be the sagging economy, health care, and the war in Iraq? With the brief introductory comments of Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin last week, the entire framework of this campaign has collapsed in a political earthquake that goes right off the Richter scale. With the media fanning the flames every step of the day, we can now be assured the Obama campaign will be in a constant state of defense, debating oil drilling, teen pregnancy, gun ownership, and most devastatingly, abortion, for the next 60 days.
While it's indisputable that McCain forfeited the "experience" argument by selecting one of the incredibly few people in American politics who have even less experience than Barack Obama, the dirty little secret is that he has exhausted the need for that argument. Beginning on Labor Day weekend, the 2008 Presidential election is now exclusively about the culture war. Up until now, there have been vague and petty cultural obsessions like flag lapel pins and arugula that effectively deferred any worthwhile political discussion and assured us, unsurprisingly, that this would be just as "small" of an election as any in recent memory despite the quadrennial hype of it being "the most important election of our lifetimes". But there has not been any tangible culture war red meat for the right to latch their jaws onto. With the Palin selection, the red meat deficit quickly transformed into a surplus. Republicans can now fill the airwaves with righteous indignation about persecution at the hands of the media and fire up the cultural warriors on all the wedge issues, and the more legitimate (or illegitimate) fodder is put out there about Palin, the more we can expect the long-suffering far right to rally behind her. They haven't had a cross to carry for the future of humanity thus far this election year, but they do with Palin.
Does this in itself assure McCain of victory? Not necessarily. Palin is poised to be a very polarizing figure and it's not yet clear whether she'll end up on the majority (or plurality) end of that polarization and thus benefit McCain. But do not underestimate the prospects that she will, especially since she's pushing all the right buttons with the very "white working class" voters that represent Obama's most elusive demographic. Furthermore, don't underestimate the prospect of a redneck backlash, which the McCain campaign effectively seized upon after Obama's speech in Germany, painting him as a celebrity and turning popularity among "elitists" into a liability. It seems just as likely that a backlash will emerge among the public if scrutiny of Palin is perceived to be too personal. The Obama campaign seems to realize the necessity of treading lightly. The media does not, which feeds right into the same "everyday people vs. the elite" narrative the GOP has effectively exploited over and over in past election campaigns, most recently with the Obama "celebrity" theme.
The speech tonight is the test that will determine if Palin will play in Peoria (or Scranton, which we're now told is the new Peoria). If she pulls it off, Obama's in serious trouble. And even if she doesn't, the direction of the campaign will have permanently changed, the right-wing will be fired up, and the media will accommodate the Republican effort to reignite the culture war. Particularly as it applies to abortion, this is terrible news. Right-wing columnist Jeff Jacoby wrote a column today citing how Obama has "taken a harder line in defense of abortion rights than any other candidate the Democrats have ever nominated", and cited examples. The logic in the examples might be dubious, but the working-class cafeteria Catholics of rural Pennsylvania are unlikely to skeptically view the literature underneath their car windshield in the church parking lot on Sunday, November 2, citing the same examples Jacoby cites. While most Americans identify themselves as "pro-choice", a significant number of them put an asterisk next to that support. For the right to be able to paint Obama as a candidate who does not put an asterisk next to any aspect of his abortion platform will assure those voters identify themselves culturally closer to McCain than Obama. For this campaign to be about abortion would be devastating for Obama, and the Palin selection assures us that's where it's headed.
posted by Mark at 3:17 PM
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